“What we’ve had in the world is a crisis in 2008 that was caused by excessive leverage and excessive debt brought about by excessively low interest rates. For the last 4 years the Fed Funds rate has been essentially at zero and we have massive money printing – monetary inflation. This creates a huge pool of liquidity. The problem is that this liquidity will not flow evenly. It can flow first into NASDAQ stocks until March 2000, then in the housing market, then in commodities and gold, and then in emerging markets. You have one bubble after the other. The bubble goes up and then is deflated when the capital (liquidity) moves out. That is the problem of money-printing by central banks.”
– Marc Faber
“Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece.”
– Ralph Charell
Tidak terasa sebentar lagi akan masuk tahun 2014 dan termasuk Kamis ini hanya 9 hari perdagangan tersisa di tahun 2013, bahkan 2 hari di antaranya (jelang Natal dan jelang Tahun Baru) hanya dibuka setengah hari perdagangan.
Inilah waktunya untuk menyusun portofolio Anda.
Dan jangan tunggu hingga 1 Januari!
Saya sangat ingin menyampaikan hal ini pada Anda bahwa kemungkinan akan terjadi kenaikan ataupun penurunan yang sangat besar pada pasar forex, obligasi, saham dan/atau emas maupun komoditas pada tahun 2014.
Namun ada 5 laporan sangat menarik yang ingin saya berikan dan semoga dapat membantu rencana (jika perlu penyesuaian maupun diversifikasi) investasi Anda di tahun depan.
Yang pertama Bob Stokes dari Elliott Wave International, yang memberikan peringatan keras ke para investor bahwa dalam jangka pendek kita akan dihadapkan pada kemungkinan terjadinya deflasi dan depresi.
Prepare Yourself for the Rest of “Conquer the Crash”
The earlier you position your portfolio, the better
To this day, I wonder why Robert Prechter’s book Conquer the Crash has not been more widely recognized. It described in advance much of what happened in the 2007-09 financial crisis.
Published in 2002, the book provided detailed descriptions of then-future economic scenarios. They were detailed vs. general descriptions. Prechter was specific in a way that would prove right or wrong; there was no gray.
This is from the book:
There are five major conditions in place at many banks that pose a danger: (1) low liquidity levels, (2) dangerous exposure to leveraged derivatives, (3) the optimistic safety ratings of banks’ debt investments, (4) the inflated values of the property that borrowers have put up as collateral on loans and (5) the substantial size of the mortgages that their clients hold compared both to those property values and to the clients’ potential inability to pay under adverse circumstances. All of these conditions compound the risk to the banking system of deflation and depression.
Conquer the Crash, second edition, (p. 179)
That’s just one excerpt about one topic in a 456-page text. Perhaps you see why I believe the book deserves more credit. Yet even that one paragraph from the book turned out to be a virtual mirror of what came to pass during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
And we believe that much of what Prechter predicted is yet to unfold.
The broader point is that Conquer the Crash prepared its readers. Around the time the book’s second edition published in 2009, the Chicago Sun-Times remarked:
Reading this book today, it seems as if Prechter had a crystal ball. That’s why his current view of the market is so compelling. … He says the ‘credit implosion’ is not finished.
And the credit implosion is still not over. Please take a look at the chart:
In the Conquer the Crash quote in the first part of this article, the last three words are “deflation and depression.” The world has yet to completely pass through these economic valleys.
Dalam sebuah wawancara khususnya dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com), Marc Faber menjelaskan prediksi utamanya untuk 2014 dan juga saran yang solid untuk mereka (para investor) yang cenderung contrarian.
Berikut yang penjelasannya, disertai sejumlah pernyataan yang mengejutkan dan serta hal lain yang menarik:
“The more I think about it the more I feel that we all don’t know how 2014 will end. First of all, we have geopolitical tensions that are rising, particularly in Asia. Who knows what this will lead to?
I don’t think that a war will occur, but the tensions could escalate to a point where they would have some impact on the Asian economies and on the currencies of the Asian economies, notably the yen.
So, whereas I admit that to short the yen is an extremely crowded trade at the present time, everybody is short the yen and long the Nikkei, I still feel there is a good chance that the yen will continue to weaken. That would be favorable for the US dollar.
Now, against all expectations, this year the euro has rallied against the US dollar. I think the euro zone economies are probably in the worst shape, and the financial system is in worse shape than the US. So I would also rather be long the US dollar than short the US dollar. Also, (I would rather be long the dollar) because of the increased energy self-reliance in the United States.
Concerning the share markets, the big question is this: Since 2010, we had a massive outperformance of the US vis-a-vis emerging economies. The US cyclically adjusted earnings P/E ratios are relatively high, which would indicate low returns for the next 7 to 10 years. In other words, in the opinion of Jeremy Grantham returns of less than 2% are negative in real terms for each of the next 7 years.
Conversely, in emerging economies we had bear markets. In some markets, adjusted for the depreciation for currencies like the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee, and so forth, we had declines of 30% to 50% from the highs. So the question for the investor is, ‘Do I buy the US that is still currently momentum driven but it won’t be driven forever, or do I gradually move into emerging economies?’
I think it’s too early to move into emerging economies, and I think it’s too late to buy US stocks. They (US stocks) may go up another 10%, maybe even 20%, but the risks have increased significantly and I don’t think equity investors in the US, aside from a short-term trading opportunity, will reap very high returns in the future.
Now, compared to equities in emerging economies and equities in the US, what is really incredibly depressed are mining companies. My preference has always been to own physical gold, but I have to say that at this level the mining companies are relatively good values.
I’m not optimistic about any asset class, whether it’s art, collectibles, bonds, equities, or commodities, but relatively speaking, probably commodity related stocks are very cheap. And don’t forget in 1999 to March 2000 there were a handful of technology stocks that went ballistic, and these so-called ‘old economy’ stocks were all sleeping. And when the Nasdaq collapsed, the ‘old economy’ stocks came back (into vogue).
So my sense is that as a contrarian and also given the extremely negative sentiment about gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, going into 2014 I think that the mining sector looks reasonably attractive.”
Mungkin Greg Guenthner, seorang editor di The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening, adalah orang cenderung agak positif melihat prospek 2014.
Menurutnya para investor saat ini terlalu khawatir sehingga menurutnya harus siap mengawali kenaikan di tahun 2014. Berikut adalah penjelasannya:
How to Profit from the 2014 Taper Trend (December 10, 2013)
The dreaded Fed taper is changing the way investors approach the market.
Well, not the taper itself, of course. That hasn’t happened yet. But the investment community’s fears over the taper, its timing, and impact on the markets have actually slowed the flow of money into long-term investment funds over the past six months.
You can profit from the “taper trend” by staying long equities heading into the New Year. It’s that simple…
What we’re seeing is the potential for a perfect storm of short-covering and reallocation heading into 2014. This “taper trend” could easily become extra fuel for an equity market that is about to register one of its best yearly performances ever…
“Since May, taper fears have caused bond outflows while equity inflows continued,” reads a Deutsche Bank note (via Business Insider). “But the net of the two is zero. With no long-term inflows, $139 billion has piled up in money markets.”
“Many equity investors are worried given the 27% rally YTD, but we estimate that an incremental $169 billion in pent-up cash and short interest due to taper fears is likely to make its way into equities in the next 3-4 months,” Deutsche Bank continues. “Indeed, the [first-half-of-the-year] pattern since 2009 has seen cash move out of money markets and into bonds and equities.”
Investors are heavily hedged with short positions. And too much money is on the sidelines right now. When the calendar rolls over to January we could see another huge month for stocks (much like we experienced in 2012 and 2013). Don’t over-think it– or you might miss out on another epic rally…
John Hathaway, seorang Portfolio Manager dan Senior Managing Director pada Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., belum lama ini menyebutkan bahwa resiko akan meningkat bagi mereka yang memiliki porsi investasi individu yang signifikan perbankan konvensional dan sekuritas.
Berikut adalah penjelasannya, yang menurut saya pribadi bahwa setiap orang harus mewaspadainya karena dapat memberikan dampak besar bagi tabungan Anda:
“Simon Mikhailovich of Eidesis Capital LLC states in the November 15 issue of Grant’s: “In the old framework, cash was a risk-free asset. In the new paradigm of systemic risks, no asset (even cash) is risk-free so long as it is in custody of a financial institution. Investors and depositors no longer have clear title to their own assets if they are held in financial accounts. There is now a body of law (including Dodd-Frank) that allows custodial assets to be swept into the bankruptcy estate and be subordinated to senior claims.” Hand in hand with the evolution of the banking laws is the subtle but pernicious evolution of the practice of banking: “Various rules and practices have made it almost impossible to use cash and securities. Go try to make large cash withdrawal or cash deposit and see what paperwork you would be forced to complete.”
Should we worry about cash in the bank? Never mind that policy makers and respected private economists are openly campaigning to debase paper currency. “In Fed and Out, Many Now Think Inflation Helps” was the headline for a New York Times article on 10/26/13. “(Fed) critics, including Professor Rogoff, say the Fed is being much too meek. He says that inflation should be pushed as high as 6% a year for a few years.” In addition, there are calls for outright taxes on wealth and movement towards a cashless society in which all money would be electronic. In his recent speech before the IMF, Lawrence Summers stated that electronic money would “make it impossible to hoard money outside the bank, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates to below zero, spurring people to spend more.” Cash and securities within banking and securities institutions are visible forms of wealth. Liquid private wealth captured in electronic form offers endless possibilities for wealth redistribution and other social engineering schemes. Tangible assets that are not securitized or digitized are less visible and therefore less vulnerable to broad edicts targeting private wealth.
The same Mr. Mikhailovich notes that during the financial crisis of 2008, public policy was mostly an ad hoc reaction to a cascade of emergencies. Since then, policy makers have had plenty of time to plan orchestrated responses to circumstances similar or worse. In a series of steps, many small and some large, almost always cloaked in complexity and obscurity, and always in the name of public interest or national security, policy makers have constructed mechanisms that are substantially and substantively unfriendly to private wealth:
Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah Chris Tell dari http://capitalistexploits.at/ yang memberikan perbandingan sangat menarik antara gelembung hutang pemerintah terbesar sepanjang sejarah dengan kebakaran hutan dalam artikelnya di bawah ini.
Dia juga menjelaskan bagaimana dirinya mengalokasikan modalnya dan bagaimana sebaiknya kita mempersiapkan diri menghadapi badai moneter:
I’ve never been trapped in a fire before and trust me, I have had plenty of opportunity. Yes, I was THAT kid, the one who played with fire. The trick was, and still is to steer clear of the flames, to anticipate what and where. Fire is however notorious for doing what it wants and once it’s out of control even the best firefighters don’t stand a chance.
Each day that passes we come closer to the arrival of a monetary fire that threatens to dwarf anything in our collective living memories. Watching the Australian bush fires in New South Whales recently made me think of our monetary system. Funny that.
The Australian bush has been burning long before the Brits began exporting their best and brightest to the “lucky country.” Right now the fires are raging. It was inevitable. Like the business cycle nature too abhors excess and steps in to correct it, clear the dead wood and prepare for rebirth.
What is often forgotten is that nature has evolved to rely on bush-fires as a means of reproduction and new “birth.” Fires are an integral part of the ecology of the planet’s surface. Humans can try and prevent these inevitable fires by “controlled burnings”, clearing out much of the dead underbrush, but it’s not foolproof.
The fires now raging in New South Whales are in part due to an extensive build up of dry brush which is likely overdue a good burning. The longer the dry bush remains unburned, and the more that accumulates the greater the risk of an inevitable fire. The result will be much greater than that which would have preceded it should a fire have taken place sooner. This is a basic, easy to understand law of nature.
Financial markets are NO different. The dry brush of excessive credit, monetary stimulus, rampant fraud, and government interference, which has caused the largest sovereign bond bubble the world has ever seen, has not been cleared or burned to allow for regeneration. In contrast we’ve actually been ADDING to it, doing the exact opposite of the “controlled burn.”
The market, like nature, has attempted to correct these excesses many times, only to be met with central bankers’ fire hoses spraying liquidity at ever increasing volumes and velocity. As the outbreaks of financial fires increase so too do the tools and technologies used by the central bankers. This postponement of the inevitable leads to massive mis-allocation of capital.
That’s a lot of dead wood buildup there
The above graph shows all the dead wood build-up. Quite a bonfire awaits us.
It is possible that the fires will continue to be contained, central bankers promise that this is indeed the case. We DO know however that it is not possible to contain it forever. This time is not different…or is it?
Let’s compare what’s different this time around in Australia and the world’s monetary system?
- The bush fires have invaded the suburbs. So too have the monetary bush fires directly impacted most western “suburbs”.
- The “tools” available to the firefighters are more advanced than at any time in human history. The tools that are at the disposal of central bankers are more “advanced” than at any time in human history.
What’s happening in New South Wales right now provides us with an instruction manual for how to proceed forward in a world of monetary madness. We need to BURN THE UNDERBRUSH. Simply hoping that the fires will fail to erupt simply defies history and mathematics. “Hope and Change” be damned.
The likely outcome is that we’re heading deep into asset confiscation mode. Government meddling will fail, it always has and it always will. The playbook from throughout history tells us that governments will steal anything and everything from the most productive before they default.
This happens either overtly (taxation, fines, penalties, asset seizure) or covertly via destruction of currencies (quantitative easing). Everything not nailed down is up for grabs. Don’t say you weren’t warned! If you need an example look at what’s happening in France. Hollande is insane, but he’s not unique.
As such, aside from structuring myself in order to protect what I have, which I hope I’ve done, ensuring that what I invest in going forward is structured properly is just as important. It makes no sense to invest intelligently only to have some thug steal the proceeds because I failed to set myself up to deal with the inevitability just mentioned.
So, how are Mark and I choosing to allocate our capital:
- Investing in private equity. We like businesses where we can get to know and deal directly with CEO’s and management, and where we are not at the whim of black box trading systems, plunge protection teams and assorted other “firefighters”. This is by far our most overweighted asset class.
- Continuing to buy and store physical precious metals. This just seems a long-term no-brainer.
- Investing in agriculture. A guy’s gotta eat, right!
- Select real estate. Maybe some premium scorched earth in New South Wales, Australia. After all, the risk of a devastating fire is now significantly reduced! But seriously, a nice piece of land where you can escape the madness and “grow your own” if need be.
The above is neither a recommendation nor an endorsement of any particular asset class or strategy. Obviously everyone’s situation is different, and we don’t know yours. Some could probably do just fine with a couple hunting rifles, some ammo and a nice piece of land to grow food and run a few livestock. Albeit that’s not going to work for urban dwellers.
The bottom line is that we are just encouraging you to consider how to prepare for a monetary firestorm. Do it your own way, use common sense, but just don’t be the dupe who ignores the obvious.
“So just as I want pilots on the planes that I fly, when it comes to monetary policy, I want to think that there is someone with sound judgment at the controls.” – Martin Feldstein.
What Do the Charts Say?
Seperti dijelaskan oleh Toby Connor, penulis Gold Scents, sebuah blog finansial dengan penekanan khusus untuk secular bull market emas:
“In this business, there is no greater buying opportunity than at a bear market bottom. For those few investors able to control emotions, delay gratification, and go against the crowd, a bear market bottom is where millionaires and billionaires are made.”
Hal tersebut yang coba dijelaskannya dalam artikel berikut yang diberi judul “Bear Market Bottoms: Smart Money Buying Opportunity”:
“Unfortunately for the vast majority of traders, emotions are much stronger than logic. When most people observe a market that has gone up continuously for five years they automatically assume that this market will continue to rise. And because everyone else is getting rich and they don’t want to be left out, they jump on board too.
In reality a market that has gone up for five years is all that much closer to a top and the upside potential is limited, not exponential. Unfortunately at market tops traders are unable to think logically and all they know is that the money is coming easy. Unfortunately when something is easy, it’s usually about over.
By the same token when a market has gone down dramatically for two years dumb money investors automatically assume that it will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. Let’s face it why would anyone want to buy something that is going down when you can buy stocks that are going up forever, and get rich quick? (This is the same mentality that was prevalent in the real estate market in 2005/06).
Again if one would stop and think logically, a market that has gone down for two years is all that much closer to a bottom. This is how smart money investors think, they think logically instead of emotionally.
In the S&P 500 chart below notice how the volume exploded at the 2009 low. This is a classic example of dumb money emotional selling, and smart money contrarian buying. Now after five years we have the exact opposite. Big money is slowly selling into the rally to the emotional dumb money investors. Volume is contracting.
So if smart money is selling into the euphoria phase of this bull market, one has to wonder where they are putting their money. One needs to look no further than the closest bear market.
Smart money understands that all bear markets eventually come to an end. They understand that recent bias is a trap that catches investors at tops and prevents them from buying at bottoms. They control emotions, delay gratification, and understand that bear market bottoms are where the greatest buying opportunities in this business are generated. As you can see big money has been coming into this market since June in preparation for a bear market bottom.
I am cautiously optimistic that gold is in the process of completing a successful test of the June lows. If I’m correct then this will turn out to be one of the greatest buying opportunities of our lifetime.
Let me stress that this isn’t the time to swing for the fences. Picking a bottom in a bear market isn’t easy. If you’re wrong and get caught in another leg down it’s going to be painful as these can often drop 15 to 20%.
At the moment I’m watching for signs that gold has formed an intermediate degree bottom. If that bottom can hold above the June low it will confirm that June marked a final bear market bottom, and I believe the start of the bubble phase of the secular gold bull market.
In a somewhat related vein I want to finish this article by talking about inflation. The general consensus at the moment is that there is none. That of course is nonsense. We have massive inflation right now. Inflation is an increase in the money supply.
What most people don’t understand, including members of the Federal Reserve, is that inflation doesn’t typically flow evenly into all assets. During the beginning stages of inflation liquidity usually flows into financial assets, as that is where the Fed targets its efforts.
Typically during the first stage of inflation liquidity will flow into stocks, bonds, and in our case over the last decade, real estate. It’s only during the second stage of inflation when these bubbles become overvalued and pop that the inflation that’s being stored in the financial markets begins to leak into the commodity markets. At that point we “label” it as inflation.
Notice in the chart below that from 2002 to 2007 inflation expressed itself as rising stock prices and a bubble in the real estate market. During this time the general consensus was that we had little to no inflation. The reality was that we had massive inflation it’s just that everyone was looking for it in the wrong place. Once the housing bubble and stock bubble began to deflate the inflation that had been stored in these markets began to leak into the commodity markets and the second “recognized” stage of inflation began. This culminated with a spike in the CRB and oil reaching $147 a barrel.
I would argue that we are now about to begin the second stage inflation again. It appears that rising interest rates have already pricked the echo bubble in the real estate market, and at five years the bubble in the stock market is almost certainly in the final euphoria stage. Once stocks begin to stagnate and rollover we are going to see that same process that we saw in 2007/08 as inflation leaks out of stocks, bonds, and real estate and moves back into the commodity markets.
If I’m correct about gold forming a final bear market bottom then this second stage inflation is going to be an incredible driver for the next leg of gold’s bull market, which I believe will probably turn into the bubble phase and top some time in 2017/18.”
Seperti biasa di akhir tulisan ini ada beberapa gambar lucu, kali ini mengenai kucing, agar Anda tetap ceria:
Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!
Dibuat Tanggal 19 Desember 2013