Nico Omer

“Every leg of the eurozone crisis has been marked by denial of the full scale of the problems. Whether Spain’s authorities have been deceitful or willfully blind makes little difference at this point.  The banks will need more capital; the government will need external help, with all the market uncertainty and strings attached that this implies.  And the pain in Spain will only get worse.”

-The top Line, Financial Times

Sesampai di kantor pagi ini (Rabu 16 Mei 2012) saya langsung melihat trading screen hampir seluruhnya berwarna merah, kecuali dollar AS yang berhasil menguat terhadap mayoritas mata uang utama dunia. Jadi menurut saya hari ini kembali kita menyaksikan investor atau pelaku pasar menjauhi diri dari aset-aset beresiko, yang menyebabkan tekanan bursa saham dan komoditas (termasuk emas).

Jadi judul tulisan ini, Sang Matador Kian terluka?, terkait dengan Negeri Matador, yaitu Spanyol, yang sedang didera krisis utang bersama dengan anggota Uni Eropa lainnya (Portugal, Irlandia, Italia, Yunani/PIIGS)…

Bukan bertujuan untuk memunculkan kegelisahan, tetapi jika dilihat gambar di samping yang menunjukkan bahwa pemuda pengangguran di Spanyol mencapai di atas 50% (termasuk di Yunani).

Ini akan lebih memanaskan musim panas yang akan segera tiba. Atau dengan kata lain, ini akan menjadi suatu TIME BOMB …

Untuk menguraikan lebih jauh kegentingan kondisi ekonomi Spanyol, saya persembahkan 3 pengamatan mendalam dari berbagai sumber.

Yang pertama adalah dari Bloomberg, yang berhubungan dengan potensi kerugian dalam sistem keuangan Spanyol:

“Spain’s home-loan defaults were 2.7 percent in December, according to the Spanish mortgage association.

“Taking those into account, banks would need to increase provisions by as much as five times what the government says, or 270 billion euros, according to estimates by the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based research group.  Plugging that hole would increase Spain’s public debt by almost 50 percent or force it to seek a bailout, following in the footsteps of Ireland, Greece and Portugal.

“Spain … is mired in a double-dip recession that has driven unemployment above 24 percent and government borrowing costs to the highest level since the country adopted the euro.  Investors are concerned that the Mediterranean nation, Europe’s fifth-largest economy with a banking system six times bigger than Ireland’s, may be too big to save.”

Yang kedua ini akan cukup keras, yang diambil dari Mish di Global Economic Analysis. Temanya mengenai nasionalisasi (bailout) Bankia, sebuah bank dengan aset terbesar ketiga di Spanyol, yang kontroversial karena keputusan pemerintahnya tersebut sangat bertolakbelakang dengan pernyataan sebelumnya yang menegaskan tidak akan ada dana tambahan lagi untuk perbaikan sektor perbankannya.

Namun:

• Tidak seorang pun percaya bahwa Bankia tidak perlu di bailout
• Tidak seorang pun percaya bahwa Bankia hanya memerlukan bantuan €7-€10 milyar saat ini
• Tidak seorang pun percaya bahwa sistem perbankan Spanyol sudah membaik.

“The only way Spain will not need a bailout is if it tells the Troika to go to hell, defaults on foreign-held bonds, then exists the eurozone.  Moreover, that is exactly what Spain should do, right now.

“Spain will eventually exit the eurozone anyway, so the sooner the better.  Sadly, the Spanish government is highly likely to rape its citizens with higher VAT taxes and bank bailouts in foolish attempts to prevent the inevitable, just as Greece has done.

“Wasting €7bn-€10bn of taxpayer money, followed by double or triple that when the bailout proves to be insufficient is just plain stupid.  Unfortunately, stupidity is rampant.”

Yang ketiga diambil dari John Mauldin di www.frontlinethoughts.com, yang analisanya selalu komprehensif dan faktual:

“Let’s do some basic math. Spanish banks took down some €352 billion in the LTRO (created by the ECB), or over 1/3 of the total amount. They have about €80 billion left after deposit outflows and buying sovereign debt. Which will be needed to buy yet more Spanish government debt, so they can be bailed out.

“As near as I can tell, Spain is guaranteeing about $20 billion of the new IMF funds that will be used for a European bailout. Spain already has $332 billion of liabilities to the ECB, $125 billion to the stabilization fund, another $99 billion for something called the Macro Financial Asset Fund, and various guarantees for other bank and European funds, all of which totals over $600 billion, give or take. Their public debt-to-GDP ratio is only 69%, but add in these other guarantees and commitments and you get over 130% debt-to-GDP. And that is before they start bailing out their banks, and before any additional debt from their fiscal deficit, which is running at 8%.

“(Yes, I know they say it will be around 5%; but they are in a deepening recession; unemployment is rising at an alarmingly high rate, which lowers revenues and increases government spending; and their bond costs are rising. Care to take the over/under bet on, say, a 7% fiscal deficit? You get to be the under. Hmmm, I don’t see many hands out there.)

“Look at this chart of ten-year Spanish bonds:

“Notice that rates came down when the LTRO was issued and Spanish banks had the money to buy Spanish government debt. Why would they buy it? Because they got to borrow money from the ECB at 1% for three years and could make a very fat spread. Making a “free” 4% is a tried and true way to garner profits that can be used to offset losses.

“Once the LTRO was done, Spanish interest rates began to climb. Note that they only briefly dipped below 5%.

“I think I have this straight. Spain wants to guarantee more bank debt that the banks will use to get more money from the ECB, which will in turn be invested in Spanish bonds that will provide the money to run higher deficits, which will…

“This is somewhat like a destitute bar patron guaranteeing his friend’s tab so his friend will buy him more drinks. The ECB is the bartender. European taxpayers are the bar owners. We know who pays the tab in the end.”

Setelah membaca komentar-komentar di atas, apakah Anda melihat matador Spanyol bisa melewati masalah-masalahnya tanpa terluka, atau tanpa butuh uluran bailout (sebagai pagar agar tidak terlempar dari Uni Eropa)? Dan celakanya, seperti kita semua tahu, bukan hanya Spanyol yang mengalami masalah-masalah tersebut.

Eropa secara harfiah sedang di ambang bencana, dan hampir pasti akan menderita konsekuensi dari gaya hidup boros masa lalunya. Jadi bagaimana kita mempersiapkan diri untuk kejutan tiba-tiba pada sistem keuangan agar bisa melestarikan aset atau portofolio kita?

Berikut adalah sejumlah saran Stephen Leeb, seorang Chairman & Chief Investment Officer dari Leeb Capital Management, seperti yang dikutip dari sebuah wawancara dengan King World News berikut ini:

“It’s tragic.  The current status quo is something that is not tolerable.  These are going to be very tumultuous events.  I mean the euro is not just going to walk away.  Everyone will be using their various currencies again, but it’s going to happen in stages.

“If investors step back and look at this from a longer-term perspective, they will realize that politicians feel the only way out of this mess is to print more money.  After the money printing will come the inflation.  It will be higher inflation than anything we’ve seen in the post-World War II period and it will send gold, silver and all commodities skyrocketing.  But I can’t deny it, this is an incredibly painful transition.”

Spanyol harus mengendalikan dan mengatasi persoalannya sebelum bertambah buruk.

Kemungkinannya ada dua: sang matador bisa menundukkan banteng masalah, atau banteng mampu melukai sang matador.

Tetap berharap untuk yang terbaik, namun juga selalu siap menghadapi yang terburuk!

(Dibuat Tanggal 16 Mei 2012)

These are the times that test men’s souls – Thomas Paine

Aset-aset beresiko kembali kita saksikan tertekan secara global dan para investor pun lebih memilih aset-aset aman resiko (safe-haven), seperti US dollar (cash) dan US Treasury.  Meskipun secara umum terlihat bahwa pasar cylical cenderung melemah, pergerakan harga cukup bergairah di sektor utilitas dan makanan pokok.

Pertanyaannya adalah: Apakah kita sedang berada di tepi jurang penurunan seperti pada grafik S&P500 di bawah ini?

Secara pribadi, saya hanya bisa mengatakan bahwa kita sedang berada di tahap awal dari bear market pasar ekuitas global.

Yang perlu diingat di sini adalah bahwa Wave-3 biasanya merupakan gelombang terbesar dari Impulsive Wave, oleh karenanya kita akan melihat penurunan lebih jauh saat ini. Memang, pasar tidak akan turun terus-menerus, pasti akan ada masa tertahannya, atau bersamaan dengan itu diikuti rebound kembali. Namun, untuk saat ini tekanan belumlah berakhir.

Lalu sampai dimana penurunan indeks S&P500 tersebut? Untuk melihat target penurunan, berikut akan diketengahan weekly-chart – yang menunjukkan bahwa 2 target terdekat penurunan Wave-3 ini adalah sekitar areal 1290 dan 1250, masing-masing merupakan Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% dan 50.0% dari gerak uptrend sebelumnya.

Jadi menurut saya saat ini bukanlah waktu yang tepat untuk memburu saham, sebaiknya tetap bersabar. Atau… ada baiknya Anda melakukan hedging kepemilikan saham Anda dengan cara mengambil posisi short (jual) pada indeks saham atau bisa juga mata uang euro.

Sementara itu, setelah mengalami resesi (tapi kalau saya menyebutnya depresi) dalam 5 tahun terakhir, masyarakat Yunani nampak cukup frustasi. Sehingga saya tidak heran kalau pemilu mereka memilih kelompok ekstrim kiri dan kanan, termasuk Neo-Nazi. Mungkin dalam diri mereka merasa setiap orang bisa lebih baik dari pejabat negara sebelumnya.

Yunani sedang menghadapi kebuntuan politik saat ini, dan ini mendorong kekhawatiran menuju kepailitan (bankruptcy), yang dampak utamanya akan membuatnya keluar dari keanggotaan Uni Eropa. Meskipun pembicaraan di tingkat kementrian keuangan cukup rapi ditutupi, namun isu bakal keluarnya Yunani dari Eropa ‘menurut hemat saya’ sebaiknya perlu ditanggapi.

Menurut saya pula, media mainstream saat ini juga cukup rapi memberikan wacana bahwa tidak akan ada negara yang keluar dari keanggotaan Uni Eropa, dan ini akan sangat berbahaya bagi Yunani jika ternyata memang mengalami default, devalue dan inflasi.

Memang demikian, mari lihat fakta bahwa utang Yunani (yang mencapai $570 milyar atau 170% dari GDP-nya menurut estimasi terakhir) adalah terlalu tinggi dan masyarakatnya tidak akan mampu melunasinya. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard dari The Telegraph memiliki opini lain, yakni:

“If Greece to convert its public debt into drachma, it would be in a perfectly viable position. Its private-sector debt is one of the lowest in the OECD.

The EU bodies would have a vested interest in preventing the drachma falling too far in an overshoot, since its own Greek credits would fall pari passu. The ECB might sensibly start buying drachma  bonds as part of its reserve diversification.

The devaluation could be held at around 40pc or whatever is appropriate to restore labour competitiveness. My guess is that tourism would recover within a few months, and then boom, provided there was a credible government. The Greek food industry would come back to life. So would light manufacturing.

Investors would flood into the country once the boil had been lanced. Some thought Indonesia would disintegrate in 1998 after the currency fall 70pc. Look at it today.”

Ya, saya sangat setuju dengan opini di atas, karena saya sendiri sudah tinggal di Indonesia selama 17 tahun. Sejak krisis keuangan 1998, Indonesia mengalami transformasi dramatis hingga saat ini menjadi emerging market yang paling menjanjikan.

Tidak saja dari sisi ekonomi, namun juga demografi, Indonesia kini menjadi Sweet Pot, dimana 50% dari populasinya berada dalam usia yang sangat produktif (<30 tahun). Dapatlah kita bayangkan potensi yang menjanjikan ini di masa yang akan datang.

Di atas adalah contoh kekuatan ekonomi dan fiskal Indonesia, dimana hutang Indonesia dibandingkan persentase PDB-nya jauh lebih rendah dari negara-negara industri besar yang tergabung dalam kelompok G7 – yang saat ini sedang didera krisis utang. Bahkan posisi utang Indonesia tersebut masih di bawah Cina.  (Dibuat Tanggal 15 Mei 2012)

Setelah S&P 500 membukukan kenaikan sebesar 32% sejak 3 Oktober sekaligus sebuah multi-year closing high di 1419 hari Senin lalu, dan IHSG mencapai level tertinggi baru sepanjang sejarah, banyak orang bertanya apakah saya sekarang sudah menjadi bullish.  Maka saya memutuskan untuk kembali menulis suatu artikel mengenai perkembangan terakhir di bursa Amerika Serikat dan Indonesia, agar dapat menjelaskan arah pergerakan indeks saham secara lebih detil.

Saya yakin Anda akan bisa menjawab sendiri apakah saya masih bearish, berubah menjadi bullish, atau malahan makin bearish sehabis baca uraian berikut ini.  Pertama-tama mari kita melihat daily chart dari S&P 500:

Yang paling menarik dari grafik tersebut adalah RSI atau Relative Strength Index, yang menunjukkan sebuah bearish divergence.  Berarti probabilitas cukup besar bahwa indeks saham AS ini akan mengalami koreksi dalam jangka pendek, dan pada akhirnya mengikuti indikator teknikal.  Selebihnya MACD pun baru saja memberikan suatu sinyal jual, dimana signal line telah memotong kebawah MACD line-nya.

Kemudian grafik bulanan dibawah ini memperlihatkan S&P 500 kemungkinan telah atau dalam waktu dekat akan menyelesaikan Primary wave k, dan memulai Intermediate wave (1) dari Primary wave l.  Sebelumnya saya berasumsi bahwa Primary wave k sudah selesai terbentuk pada kuartal kedua tahun 2011, tetapi karena S&P 500 ternyata melampaui level tertinggi tahun yang lalu, saya terpaksa merevisi hitungan gelombang.

Dengan demikian Primary wave k membentuk sebuah double zig-zag [waves (W), (X) dan (Y)] yang masing-masing terdiri dari Minor waves A, B dan C.  Semua gelombang tersebut dapat dilihat secara lebih jelas pada grafik mingguan berikutnya:

Pendek kata, pasca pembentukan Primary wave j maupun k, kita akan menyaksikan Primary wave l yang pada umumnya paling panjang dan besar.  Oleh karena itu, saya ingin mengingatkan pembaca yang budiman bahwa bursa saham Amerika Serikat barangkali dalam bulan ini akan mencetak level tertingginya untuk tahun ini.  Jadi Anda perlu siap untuk Intermediate wave (1) dari Primary wave l, yang sifatnya korektif.

Lalu apabila Anda mau tahu kapan sebaiknya meningkatkan kewaspadaan terhadap suatu koreksi yang lebih dalam, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence mungkin dapat memberikan jawabannya.  Pada saat ini MACD Histogram sudah memberitahu bahwa uptrend mulai kehilangan momentum-nya, maka kita hanya perlu menunggu penembusan zero line atau garis 0 untuk memperoleh suatu sell signal yang mapan.

Volume perdagangan menyimpang

Dalam sebuah artikel untuk Daily Profit yang berjudul “What’s Next as the First Quarter Comes To An End?”, Rick Pendergraft yang merupakan the Editor dari ETF Master Portfolio mendiskusikan downtrend dalam volume perdagangan dan dampak potensialnya terhadap bursa saham secara umum:

“You can see the downtrend in volume on the chart and you can see what happened after each of these downtrends was broken – the trend in the S&P 500 reversed.  In 2009, the S&P was in a downtrend and reversed sharply higher once the volume trend line was penetrated.  In early 2010, the market was in an uptrend, but suffered a 17% pullback after the volume trend line was broken.  In 2011, the S&P was once again trending higher in the first half of the year while the volume trended lower.  In early July, the volume spiked above the trend line right at the beginning of a 20% pullback in the S&P.”

“Given the way these volume downtrends have signaled reversals in the S&P once they were snapped, I think this is the first reason to exercise caution for the next few months.”

“While I don’t foresee a new long-term bear market, I do see the S&P pulling back to the trend line that connects the 2009 low with the lows from last fall.”

“The rising trend line is currently sitting near the 1,230 mark, but is rising a little each week.  If the market does start pulling back, the trend line could be up near the 1,250 mark by the time the S&P gets down to it.  From the current level of 1,400, that would represent a decline of 11%.  Such a drop would be right in line with the decline we saw in the spring of 2010.  That decline also came after a downtrend in volume was snapped and it came when the VIX was flirting with the 15 level.”

“I’m not suggesting that you should rush out and sell all your stock holdings.  Instead, I recommend that you evaluate your holdings and take some gains or at the very least take steps to protect those gains …”

Psikologi pasar

“A simple question: Is the U.S. stock market a Bubble? Have the Fed and global central bankers prolonged the U.S. Credit Bubble sufficiently to the point of having again incited Bubble dynamics within our equities market?  Sure looks like it.  As we’ve witnessed repeatedly for twenty-odd years now, every government bailout/policy response to a burst Bubble ends up inflating fledgling Bubbles to full-blown Bubble fruition excess.  From my point of view, U.S. stocks were, at the minimum, a “fledgling” Bubble prior to recent LTRO and concerted global central bank liquidity operations.”

-Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin, 23 March 2012-

Dalam bagian ini, saya ingin menampilkan 3 indikator yang menggambarkan Investor Psychology yang terkini, yakni Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), dan Emotional maupun Speculative Intensity.

Global Market Perspective pada tanggal 30 Maret lalu memberikan komentar yang singkat tapi sangat bermanfaat tentang grafik disamping ini: “This week, a 10-day average of Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus rose to 68.4%, which is the highest level of advisor optimism since June 2007, three weeks prior to the all-time high in the Value Line Composite Index and the Dow Jones Composite Index.”

Kemudian Costas Bocelli dari Channel Trading Secrets dalam sebuah artikel yang berjudul “Higher Volatility Coming Sooner Than You Think” menjelaskan mengapa the VIX begitu penting dan apa yang diindikasikan olehnya:

“The stock market rally has been quite resilient… virtually a one-way, low volume ticket to higher prices.”

“Not surprisingly, volatility has gotten absolutely smashed along the way.”

“As measured by the widely followed CBOE volatility index commonly known as the VIX, or the “fear gauge”, it recently put in a five year low.”

“(Extremely low readings in the VIX … infer that investors have become very complacent with regard to risk.  More to the point, these low readings usually coincide with short-term market tops.)”

“So let’s take a look at the VIX.  Like I mentioned, it just hit a multi-year low, briefly dipping below 14.00 this past Tuesday.  Yesterday it closed at 15.31 – a level that is still very indicative of overly complacent investors.”

Lalu Rick Pendergraft menambahkan:

“The VIX recently dropped below the 15 level for the first time since last April.  In fact, the VIX dropped as low as 13.66, the lowest reading since June 2007.”

“The VIX measures volatility in the market, though it is commonly referred to as a fear gauge – when readings are high, volatility is high and investors are more fearful.  And low readings imply lower volatility and less fear.  From a contrarian viewpoint, it’s time to worry when investors are showing little fear.”

“In the two charts below, note how the market performed after the VIX dipped below 15.”

“The VIX dipped below 15 in April 2011, right ahead of a five-month losing streak for the S&P.  The VIX dropped in April 2010, but only got as low as 15.23.  Despite staying above 15, the S&P suffered a drop of almost 200 points from May through early July that year.  Finally, the VIX was below 15 in June 2007, just before the market went into a bearish cycle.”

Terakhir Ty Andros pada www.traderview.com menulis hal berikutnya mengenai sentimen di pasar belakangan ini:

“Most internal measures, especially sentiment and volatility, are HORRID.  Check out these charts courtesy of Alan Newman’s CROSSCURRENTS (http://www.cross-currents.net, I love his work and recommend it highly):”

“Do you see the excess positive sentiment above?  Can you say Mania?”

Kondisi pasar hampir mirip dengan 2011

“… stock markets have become a giant charade.  The indexes don’t communicate useful or accurate information.  Prices have become more influenced by the supply of credit in the system than the underlying earnings of the businesses on listed exchanges.  The whole thing looks suspiciously like a racket designed only to benefit the banks, the brokers, and the bureaucrats who nominally regulate them.”

-Dan Denning, The Daily Reckoning-

Dalam weekly note-nya, fund manager John Hussman bearish terhadap pasar, dan meneliti suatu indikator teknikal yang memperlihatkan tanda dari optimisme yang berlebihan:

“As of Friday (16 March), the S&P 500 was within 1% of its upper Bollinger band at virtually every horizon, including daily, weekly and monthly bands.  The last time the S&P 500 reached a similar extreme was Friday April 29, 2011, when I titled the following Monday’s comment Extreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes.  I observed when the market has previously been overbought to this extent, coupled with more general features of an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome”, the average outcome has been particularly hostile:”

“Examining this set of instances, it’s clear that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndromes as extreme as we observe today are even more important for their extended implications than they are for market prospects over say, 3-6 months.  Though there is a tendency toward abrupt market plunges, the initial market losses in 1972 and 2007 were recovered over a period of several months before second signal emerged, followed by a major market decline.  Despite the variability in short-term outcomes, and even the tendency for the market to advance by several percent after the syndrome emerges, the overall implications are clearly negative on the basis of average return/risk outcomes.”

“As it happened, April 29, 2011 turned out to mark the exact high of the S&P 500 for the year, and was followed by a steep intermediate market plunge.  My impression is that despite the recent run of speculation the market has enjoyed – largely reflecting a reprieve in European debt concerns and what appears to be a drawing-forward of jobs into the first quarter due to unseasonably favorable weather – the extended implications of present market conditions remain decidedly negative.”

“If you examine the components of the S&P 500 individually, you’ll quickly find that the majority of those stocks are also at or through their own upper Bollinger bands.  In overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions, those extensions are often resolved in unison, which is what produces the characteristic “air pocket” where the index can give up weeks or sometimes months of upside progress in a handful of sessions (though we often see a knee-jerk reaction to buy that initial dip before more serious follow-through occurs).”

Selanjutnya Raymond James’ Jeff Saut, yang telah bullish selama dua tahun lebih, sekarang juga mengatakan hal yang sama:

“The call for this week: Study the enclosed chart from the good folks at Zero Hedge.  There is remarkable similarity to the divergence that took place between stock prices and U.S. Economic Data Trends in April 2011 right before the SPX shed 8%.  Take that in concert with what happened to interest rates last week, a dearth of internal energy for the equity markets, a S&P 500 that is 2 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, rumors Operation Twist is over, Chinese consternations, regulators gone wild, rising gasoline prices, massive corporate insider selling, and my sense that in the short run all of the good news is on the table, and it appears as if the easy money has been made.”

Stocks Hit a Wall – And May Need the Fed After All (CNBC.com)

“When QE1 has ended, when QE2 has ended, basically the stock market has gone down by 1,500 points the next month or two. Is the Fed trapped in this conundrum of providing cheaper liquidity in order to pump up the stock market and risk markets? I think they are.  I won’t argue…whether it’s good policy, but it’s necessarily policy based on where central banks have led us.”

-Bill Gross, co-CEO of bond giant Pimco-

Pada kuartal ini, semua mata dan telinga akan tertuju ke anggota bank sentral AS untuk mengetahui apakah the Fed akan melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneter atau tidak.  Soalnya Operation Twist akan berakhir dalam kuartal kedua, dimana pasar kedepan harus menyerap 70% lebih banyak obligasi pemerintah per kuartal.  Tentunya itu saja dikhawatirkan akan cukup untuk membuat yields atau tingkat suku bunga atasnya meroket!

Tetapi QE juga dapat dipertanyakan secara politis jadi dalam suatu tahun pemilihan Presiden, Bernanke harus memilih tindakannya dengan lebih hati-hati daripada biasanya.  Maka situasinya sungguh rumit untuk the Fed karena mereka perlu menghindari langkah demi mendongkrak perekonomiannya yang tidak mudah dapat dibenarkan.  Kalau tidak, bank sentral AS akan dituduh atas kesepihakan …

Namun jika bursa saham AS terkoreksi secara signifikan (lebih dari 10%?) dan/atau inflasi terkendali di bawah 2%, yakinlah bahwa the Fed akan kembali mencetak banyak uang untuk mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi.  Jadi … jangan terkejut apabila bank sentral AS pada akhirnya memutuskan untuk membeli mortgage-backed securities atau government bonds senilai $1 trillion lebih.

Pokoknya saya secara pribadi berpendapat Ben Bernanke pasti akan mengumumkan quantitative easing jilid ketiga dalam salah satu pertemuan the Fed kedepan, tetapi belum bisa dipastikan kapan itu akan terjadi (Juni atau Juli?).  Itupun yang diungkapkan oleh Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital, yang khawatir suku bunga akan naik dan pemulihan ekonomi terhambat tanpa pelonggaran moneter yang berkelanjutan:

“The fact of the matter is if they don’t do the QE, then interest rates will rise significantly in the long-run, the long-term rates.”

“That will increase mortgage rates, crush the housing market and send the economy back into recession.  So the Fed is going to have to come back in by its own promise and it’s going to come in and do more QE.  It’s only a matter of time.”

“This phony recovery the Fed has engineered with cheap money cannot survive without continuous doses of cheap money.  If the Fed denies the economy QE3, it’s going to roll over and die.  Then it’s going to have to resuscitate it with more QE, more money printing.”

“Somebody is going to have to buy all of those bonds and if the Fed is not going to do it, who will?  Right now, the Fed is doing QE.  Whether they want to officially call it QE, they are doing it.  They are doing Operation Twist and buying government bonds.”

“The Fed has to buy government bonds to keep interest rates from skyrocketing.  As they stop, rates are going to go up and it will choke off the ‘recovery’ that is dependent on low rates.”

Bagaimana dengan IHSG?

Berhubungan IHSG berhasil mencetak rekor tertinggi yang baru, saya juga harus mempertimbangkan kembali hitungan gelombang untuk bursa saham Indonesia.  Sebelumnya saya berpikir IHSG telah menyelesaikan Intermediate wave (1) dari Primary wave l, dan sedang membentuk Minor wave B dari Intermediate wave (2).  Tetapi menyusul penembusan level tertinggi dari gelombang naik terakhir, saya perlu meninjau lagi wave structure dari IHSG.

Seperti dapat Anda lihat pada grafik mingguan dibawah ini, indeks saham utama di Indonesia ternyata masih berada dalam Minor wave 5 dari Intermediate wave (1).  Maka pada saat ini IHSG tetap bullish, namun pasca penyelesaian pembentukan Minor wave 5, kita akan memasuki Intermediate wave (2) dari Primary wave l yang sifatnya korektif.  Jadi apa implikasinya untuk kita sebagai investor?

Artinya bull market yang berlangsung dari kuartal keempat tahun 2008 hingga sekarang akan segera berakhir, dan kita perlu meningkatkan kewaspadaan.  Salah satu hal yang menurut saya wajib dilakukan sekarang oleh investor adalah memperketat stop loss, agar sebagian dari keuntungan yang belum terealisasi dapat diamankan ataupun kerugian bisa dibatasi.

Indikator teknikal juga mendukung peringatan tersebut, dimana baik RSI dan MACD menunjukkan sebuah bearish divergence!  Maka apabila bursa saham Indonesia suatu saat terperosok dan mengikuti pelemahan S&P 500 dari AS, seharusnya Anda tidak begitu terkejut, bukankah begitu?

Tetapi sekali lagi perlu saya ingatkan bahwa koreksinya kedepan – meskipun akan cukup tajam dalam beberapa bulan mendatang – tidak akan mampu membendung secular bull market atau bull market yang berkepanjangan ini, karena IHSG baru saja memasuki Primary wave l yang pada umumnya paling besar.  Dengan kata lain, kita akan ditawarkan peluang emas kembali tahun depan untuk membeli saham favorit kita pada harga yang sungguh menggiurkan (dan mungkin sulit dipercaya pada saat ini?).

Hal tersebut tidak hanya berlaku untuk Indonesia, tetapi untuk kebanyakan bursa saham di Asia.  Bahkan Global Market Perspective yang tertanggal 30 Maret 2012 setuju dengannya, dan menyampaikan pesan ini dalam Overview untuk Asian-Pacific stock markets:

“Despite the secular bear market in most of the developed world since 2000, many emerging markets continue to advance impulsively.  Many emerging markets in the past three years have experienced a huge consumption boom that is typical of large-degree third waves.  Yet their debt levels remain relatively low.  That will change many years in the future, when the emerging markets catch up to their developed-market peers and enter a speculative phase like the one from which Japan, Europe and the U.S. are currently deleveraging.  But for the next decade at least, most emerging markets will enjoy a sweet spot of progress and productivity.”

Kesimpulan

“I remain adamant that now would be one of the worst possible times to accept market risk in hopes of “catching up” – when valuations are rich instead of reasonable, prices are strenuously overbought instead of oversold, investor sentiment is exuberant rather than fearful, the growing technical divergences are negative rather than positive, corporate insiders are frantically selling instead of buying, stocks are grasping at speculative highs instead of multi-year lows, and risk premiums are razor-thin instead of satisfactory.”

-John P. Hussman, Ph.D.-

Baik pada tahun 2010 dan 2011, bursa saham dunia mengalami rallies yang sangat kuat dalam 4 bulan pertama, tetapi berikutnya jatuh dengan 16% dan 24%, sekaligus membenarkan ungkapan pasar “sell in May and go away”.  Maka pertanyaan sekarang adalah apakah bursa saham dunia akan kembali mengikuti pola yang serupa pada 2012, setelah naik 11% dalam kuartal pertama.

Pada kenyataan bursa saham Indonesia kini overbought.  Relative Strength Index atau RSI pada weekly chart memang bisa saja makin menanjak, namun kita setidaknya sudah dapat peringatan dini supaya lebih berhati-hati.  Intinya adalah bahwa resiko telah meningkat dan investor disarankan untuk tidak bersikap terlalu agresif pada saat ini.

Tidak kurang dan juga tidak lebih dari itu …  Jadi ini bukan berarti Anda sama sekali tidak memiliki saham, tetapi Anda lebih waspada.  Selama kita masih berada dalam bull market, nikmatilah maupun manfaatkan semaksimal mungkin!

Untuk menutup artikel ini, yang sudah terlalu panjang seperti biasa, saya ingin menambah satu pesan dari Clif Droke pada Clif Droke.com, yang mudah-mudahan membuat Anda berpikir kritis mengenai tahun yang akan datang:

“The fact that this is a presidential election year, replete with the usual pump priming measures and underscored by the peaking 4-year cycle, has been an invaluable help in keeping revolutionary fervor suppressed for the moment.  But what those within the government and financial establishment have failed to consider is that once the 4-year cycle peaks later this year, we enter the final “hard down” phase of the 120-year cycle to bottom in late 2014.  This cycle is also known, in the words of Samuel J. Kress, as the “Revolutionary Cycle.”

“Regarding the 120-year cycle, Kress wrote:”

“The first 120-year Mega Cycle began in the mid 1770s after a prolonged depressed economy and the Revolutionary War which transformed America from an occupied territory to an independent country as we know the U.S.A. today.  The first 120-year cycle ended in the mid 1890s after the first major depression in the U.S. and the Spanish American War.  This began the second 120-year cycle which transformed the U.S. from an agricultural to a manufacturing based economy and which is referred to as the Industrial Revolution.  The second 120-year is scheduled to bottom in later 2014 to begin the third (everything comes in threes).  If history, an evolving cycle, continues to repeat itself, the potential for the third major depression and a WWIII equivalent exists and the U.S. could experience another transformation and our life style as we know it today.”

“Kress goes on to observe that the three elements which govern our lifestyles – political, economic and social – will come into play as the current 120-year cycle bottoms.  “The third [120-year bottom] scheduled for later 2014 (‘everything comes in threes’) should be a social revolution,” writes Kress.  “Could this be the demise of capitalism as we know it today?  The 120-year Mega Cycle could also be referred to as the Revolution Cycle, [with] 2014 the Revolutionary low.”

Apakah Anda sudah menyiapkan sabuk pengaman?  Jika tidak, apa yang membuat Anda begitu yakin perjalanannya kedepan mulus saja?

Selamat berinvestasi dan semoga Anda sehat dan sukses selalu …

“Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces.”

-Sigmund Freud-

Belakangan ini, banyak pelaku pasar mulai berpuas hati atau complacent lagi setelah Yunani memperoleh pemangkasan hutang maupun bailout kedua.  Namun saya secara pribadi masih berpendapat bahwa Yunani pada akhirnya akan menuju “ajalnya”, dan bantuan kemarin hanya mengulur waktu saja.

Deal or no deal, Yunani tetap akan bangkrut

“The Greek deal is a sham.  It’s designed to make everybody feel better.  This Greece deal is only designed to get us through the French election and the American election and the German election.”

-Jim Rogers-

Ternyata beberapa analis lainnya pun berpikiran demikian.  Intinya adalah bahwa selama Yunani berada di Uni Eropa dan memakai euro sebagai mata uangnya, negara tersebut tidak akan bangkit!

John Mauldin, dalam Thoughts from the FRONTLINE, barangkali dapat menggambarkan kondisi perekonomian terkini di Yunani dengan sangat jelas:

“Greece is having an “orderly” default.  The taxpayers of Europe are in theory going to lend €130 billion to Greece to pay back €100 billion in Greek debt that is owed to private lenders.  Greece has to pass several difficult tests in order to get the money.  €100 billion of debt to private lenders will be written off.  Thus the net effect will be that they owe €30 billion more.  How does this help Greece, except that they get €30 billion more they cannot pay?”

“The “new” debt is already trading in the market, even though it has not actually been issued.  (Don’t bother traders with messy details, just do the deal.)  This page from Bloomberg is just too delicious not to print, sent to me courtesy of Dan Greenhaus of BTIG.  It shows the new Greek bonds trading at over a 71-79% discount, depending on the length of maturity.  Note this is AFTER the 53% haircut already imposed.  That reads to me like the market value of original Greek debt is now between 12 and 14% of the original face value.”

“Greece itself is in free fall.  The “benefits” of austerity have not become apparent, as the Greek economy saw growth rates of -0.2% in 2008, -3.3% in 2009, -3.4% in 2010, -6.9% in 2011, and …?  The 4^th quarter of last year saw a GDP fall of 7.5%.  Do you see a trend here?  The Greek economy is down by almost one-fifth in less than five years.  Unemployment has risen to 20%, and 50% among young people, many of whom are leaving the country.  Resentment has grown among ordinary Greeks over the austerity medicine ordered by international creditors, which has compounded the pain.  Greek papers are full of stories blaming Germany for their problems.”

“By any standard, what will soon be a 20% drop can be classified as a depression.  There is nothing on the horizon to suggest things will turn around any time soon.  The country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 160% of nominal gross domestic product, AFTER the debt restructuring.  If Greece can find someone to lend them more money, it will only get worse.”

“The current agreement with the EU will not improve the economy, but require even more wage cuts, government spending cuts, and higher taxes and unemployment.  The problem is that if Greece leaves the euro, those problems do not go away, they just take a different form.  There is still a great deal of economic pain for Greece as a consequence of past decisions.  It is sad, but there is no other choice, unless the rest of Europe or the world, through the IMF, simply gives Greece all the money they want.  But then where do you stop?”

Selain itu, pembuat kebijakan di Jerman juga tidak begitu optimis mengenai daya tahan Yunani pada masa mendatang.  Sebagai buktinya, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich dalam sebuah wawancara dengan majalah berita Der Spiegel mengatakan:

“I do not mean that Greece should be kicked out of the 17-nation eurozone, but to create incentives for an exit that they cannot turn down.  Outside the European monetary union Greece’s chances of regenerating itself and become competitive are definitely bigger than if it remained inside the eurozone.”

Kemudian the conservative Die Welt menambahkan: “As long as the Greeks remain in the euro zone, they will never become competitive.  All the assistance that is based on the illusion that Greece can make it while remaining part of the euro area is doomed to fizzle out without having any effect.  The longer it takes for political leaders in Berlin, Brussels and Athens to accepts this reality, the more expensive it will be for the citizens of their countries.  Greece will be better off if it abandons the euro – and the euro zone will be better off without Greece.”

Bahkan pemuka agama merasa terpanggil untuk memberikan pendapatnya.  Misalnya dalam sebuah surat yang ditujukkan untuk Perdana Menteri Yunani, Archbishop of Athens and All Greece Ieronymos menyampaikan:

“Homelessness and even hunger – phenomena seen during the [Second World] war – have reached nightmare levels …  A sense of patience among Greeks is running out, giving way to a sense of anger, and the danger of a social explosion can no longer be ignored.”

“… We must all understand the feeling of insecurity, desperation and depression in every Greek home.  This, unfortunately, is continuing to cause suicide among those who can no longer stand the drama in their family and the suffering of their children.  …  We are being asked to take even larger doses of a medicine that has proven to be deadly and to undertake commitments that do not solve the problem, but only temporarily postpone the foretold death of our economy …  And what is likely to follow are more painful, more unjust measures in the same hopeless and unsuccessful course of our recent past.”

Secara sederhana Yunani tidak mungkin mampu dan tidak pernah akan menjadi kompetitif sebagai bagian dari suatu currency union dengan Jerman.  Artinya Yunani akan membutuhkan dana bantuan terus-menerus dan kehilangan kemandiriannya secara fiskal dalam waktu yang panjang.  Tetapi kemauan politis yang diperlukan untuk mendukung solusi ini tidak ada, maka Yunani pada akhirnya dapat dipastikan akan keluar dari the euro zone.

Lalu Grant Williams dari Vulpes Investment Management menyimpulkannya seperti berikut ini:

“Tomorrow MAY bring a ‘solution’ to the Greek problem but, mark my words, it will NOT last.  Greece is done as a member of the EU.  At best, the latest austerity measures are SUPPOSED to get Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio down to 120% (which, incidentally, is where Italy currently stands – and Italy has a real economy).  That cannot be sustained and, as Herbert Stein’s Law so beautifully states: If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.  The bailing out of Greece cannot go on forever.  It will stop.”

“The plain truth is this:

• Greece cannot pay its current debts back.  Ever.
• More money is NOT the answer.
• Greece cannot even begin to recover while still chained to the Euro and unable to devalue.
• Greek citizens will NOT suddenly decide to pay their taxes.
• Greece’s exit from the EU will be incredibly painful and the country will likely go into a depression.”

“But:

• Greece is NOT the first country to default (just the first in the EU)
• Greece WILL be able to get back on its feet eventually through devaluation
• The sooner this process starts, the sooner it finishes – look at Iceland”

Dan … Variant Perception terakhirnya menekankan bahwa sebuah kebangkrutan dari Yunani sebetulnya tidak terlalu perlu dikhawatirkan karena sebelumnya banyak negara telah mengalami nasib serupa:

“Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas with little downward economic volatility.  The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible, and historical examples provide a roadmap for exit.  The real problem in Europe is that EU peripheral countries face severe, unsustainable imbalances in real effective exchange rates and external debt levels that are higher than most previous emerging market crises.

Orderly defaults and debt rescheduling coupled with devaluations are inevitable and even desirable.  Exiting from the euro and devaluation would accelerate insolvencies, but would provide a powerful policy tool via flexible exchange rates.  The European periphery could then grow again quickly with deleveraged balance sheets and more competitive exchange rates, much like many emerging markets after recent defaults and devaluations (Asia 1997, Russia 1998, and Argentina 2002).”

Spanyol merupakan ancaman yang lebih besar ketimbang Yunani

“There is no question that the whole Greek situation is hopeless. Central planners can paper it over in the short-run and say what they want, but the Greek economy is destroyed. Ultimately, I think there is no choice but to leave the euro and reintroduce the drachma. That will be extremely disruptive, but I don’t see another outcome unless the Germans and the rest of the Northern Europeans are prepared to carry these guys and I don’t think that’s going to be the case. There is absolutely a danger of contagion.  Take Spain as an example, it’s a great country and I like Spain immensely, but I don’t like their financial positions or their employment situation. When you’ve got 50% of your 16 to 25 year old males unemployed, your economy is contracting and your Prime Minister comes out and says, ‘We can’t possibly meet the budget requirements the European Union is putting on us,’ that tells you everything you need to know. Contagion is a major risk.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management-

Negara yang paling perlu diperhatikan dalam 6 bulan kedepan, selain Portugal dan Irlandia yang kemungkinan (besar) akan membutuhkan dana penyelamatan tambahan, adalah Spanyol.  Mengapa demikian?

Adapun beberapa faktor yang dapat menyebabkan “kejatuhan Spanyol kedalam jurang kenistaan”:

1. Negara ini mempunyai tingkat pengangguran yang tertingginya di euro zone, yaitu lebih dari 23%.  Dengan jumlah penganggur yang meningkat hingga 4,7 juta pada bulan Februari, Spanyol berkontribusi hampir sepertiga dari semua orang yang tanpa pekerjaan di Uni Eropa.
2. Spanyol juga sedang bergelut dengan dampak dari housing bubble yang pecah secara dramatis selama krisis kredit, dan mengakibatkan banyak masalah untuk sistem perbankannya.
3. Defisit anggaran Spanyol untuk 2011 jauh lebih buruk dari perkiraannya yakni 8,5%, atau 2,5 persen lebih tinggi daripada yang direncanakan.  Selanjutnya pemerintah baru saja mengumumkan bahwa perekonomian Spanyol akan menyusut 1,7% tahun ini, yang menyamakan pandangan dari International Monetary Fund.

Maka sebagai perekonomian terbesar keempat di euro zone, resiko sekecil apapun juga dari sebuah kegagalan bayar atau sebuah bailout akan mempunyai dampak yang jauh lebih besar untuk Uni Eropa ketimbang Yunani!  Grant Williams, portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management, pun berpikir demikian:

“I have said it before, I will say it again; Greece is finished as a member of the EU.  I thought the coup de grace would be applied before March 20^th (and it might yet prove too much to get the necessary approvals in time which could mean all bets are off once again before the deadline), but either way, they are done.  Out.  Finished.  It is purely a matter of how and when and I rather suspect the answers to those two questions are likely to be ‘badly’ and ‘soon’.  Once the problem of Greece has finally been dealt with by Europe, it’ll be a question of ‘who’s got next?’ and, while the answer to that is most likely Portugal, in terms of when it happens, Europe’s new problem child is set to be the country with great weather, the world’s best soccer team, a busted banking system, spiraling unemployment and tapas.”

Lalu Greg Weldon pada www.weldononline.com, yang menggali tingkat pengangguran Spanyol dari bulan lalu, mengungkapkan penemuan mencekam berikut ini:

“Spain’s January Unemployment data was of GREAT interest, revealing the THIRD LARGEST EVER single-month expansion in the Number of Unemployed, pegged at +177,470 … which represents a MASSIVE monthly rise equal to +4.0% … and … a sizable +35.6% yr-yr increase!!!”

“For reference, a ‘population-equivalent’ rise in US unemployment would be akin to a 1.2 million single month LOSS in Non- Farm Payrolls.”

“Already at a MULTI-DECADE HIGH as of the last report, for the 4Q (revealing a 22.8% rate, which violated the previous high of 22.5% set in 1994) … the gain in January implies a rise of one-full percentage point, which would put the Unemployment Rate at a newer new high of 23.8%, as evidenced in the chart on display [above].”

Kemudian Grant Williams melanjutkan seruannya kembali dengan suatu prediksi untuk situasi di Spanyol selama musim panas mendatang:

“With 50% of Spain’s under-25s out of work (a situation that won’t improve for years), stifling austerity measures in place that, in order to meet EU debt limits, will ensure that the chance of generating any growth in the Spanish economy becomes about as likely as Kim Kardashian refusing to pose for a photograph, it is obvious that it’s only a matter of time before Spain becomes the new Greece.  Like Greece, the trouble will really begin with public sector strikes, followed by social unrest as the Summer heat hits Southern Europe and end with politician pandering to angry demands for an exit from Europe and upheaval.”

“Spain is going to be the country on the front pages this summer so best get yourselves acquainted with the problems facing it.  If it saves you any time, they are by and large similar to those faced by Greece – only much, much larger.  Lather.  Rinse.  Repeat.”

Dan … pada akhirnya Mike Shedlock menyimpulkan dengan cemerlang apa yang kemungkinan akan terjadi dalam jangka menengah-panjang: “… Spanish banks continue to plow into leveraged debt on their own bonds, with Spanish unemployment over 23%, with youth unemployment of 49%, with widening regional debt problems, with massive unrecognized housing sector losses, and with more austerity measures coming that will exacerbate all of the previously mentioned problems!”

“This Ponzi scheme cannot last, which means it won’t.  Spain will implode.  Indeed, it’s a wonder it hasn’t already.”

Babak kedua belum dimulai

“Far from being the end of this eurozone debt crisis, or even the beginning of the end, Friday’s debt-swap was probably just the end of the beginning.”

-Liam Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management-

Apabila kita membandingkan krisis kredit di Eropa dengan pertandingan sepakbola, babak pertama berlangsung selama 2007-08 sedangkan babak kedua kemungkinan akan dimulai pada semester kedua tahun ini dan berakhir di tahun berikutnya ataupun 2014.  Sebuah negara kecil seperti Yunani saja bisa menggoncang bursa saham dunia, jadi coba bayangkan seberapa besar dampaknya jika salah satu negara besar – Spanyol, Prancis, Inggris, Jepang atau Amerika Serikat – tiba-tiba menghadapi masalah yang rumit.

Itupun yang disampaikan oleh Dirk Steinhoff dalam kutipan berikut ini:

“Don’t you find it astonishing how Greece, a country with a population of approximately 11 million and a GDP that makes up less than 2% of the GDP of the entire European Union – a GDP that is only twice as much as that of the city of Berlin – has been able to keep the world for more than two years on a tether?  If the relatively small country of Greece makes these kind of waves, can you imagine what would happen if another European country would have similar problems – maybe the likes of a Spain, Italy, or even France – where shares are closer to 10-15% of the GDP of the European Union?  Or how about a country like the US, where GDP is close to that of the GDP of the entire European Union?”

Bahkan The Economic Collapse Blog menyerukan bahwa ini hanya awal dari krisis kredit yang berkepanjangan, dan saya khawatir harus setuju dengan pandangan tersebut: “… now that Greece has gotten a sweet “haircut” from private investors, politicians in Portugal, Italy, Spain and other European nations are going to wonder why they shouldn’t get some “debt  forgiveness” too.  Also, privateinvestors are almost certainly going to be less likely to want to loan money to European nations from now on.  If they will be required to take massive haircuts at some point, when why in the world would they  want to lend huge amounts of money to European governments at super low interest rates?  It simply does not make sense. Now that Greece has defaulted, the whole game is going to change. This is just the beginning.”

Maka saya ingin memanfaatkan kesempatan ini sekali lagi untuk mengingatkan investor dan/atau traders agar tetap waspada terhadap koreksi yang mendadak di bursa saham dunia maupun berbagai mata uang asing, terutama euro, pound sterling dan Aussie dollar.

Semoga sukses dan sehat selalu!

Seperti telah saya tulis pada artikel terakhir mengenai emas yang berjudul “Apakah koreksi di pasar emas sudah selesai?”, saya memperkirakan koreksinya belum selesai sepenuhnya, dan pasar emas masih akan turun sekali lagi sebelum membentuk harga lebih rendah yang dapat bertahan.  Apabila kita meneliti grafik harian dibawah ini, jelas terlihat bahwa gelombang jual kelima (dan kemungkinan besar yang terakhir) telah dimulai sejak tanggal 29 Februari yang lalu, ketika harga emas terkoreksi sekitar $100/toz dalam sehari.

Adapun beberapa hal yang menarik pada daily chart tersebut:

• Setelah support dari wave keempat ditembus kebawah, koreksi emas mengalami akselerasi dan turun dengan cepat;
• Pelaku pasar sebetulnya telah memperoleh peringatan dini atas pelemahan itu dalam bentuk bearish divergence di Relative Strength Index, dimana harga emas masih berlanjut naik dalam bulan Februari tetapi indikator teknikal tidak mampu untuk mengikutinya;
• Pasar emas selama ini belum berhasil memecahkan pola dengan lower lows ($1,534.49/toz dan $1,521.94/toz) maupun lower highs ($1,920.30/toz, $1,802.60/toz dan $1,791.49/toz), meskipun rally dari akhir tahun 2011 kuat sekali.  Maka dengan demikian, secara teknikal pasar emas tetap berada dalam sebuah DOWNTREND.

Kondisi bursa saham AS mengkhawatirkan

“You are seeing gold take out some short-term technical support levels. I guess the next one of significance is at $1,650.  If gold were to take $1,650 out, that would get more of the hedge funds and the algorithm traders shorting. I have said this before but every time this happens, and it’s been going on for 11+ years, buy the weakness.  That’s all you do here and don’t worry about it because the fundamentals for gold have gotten better with each passing day. As we are doing this interview, the Dow and gold are trading down exactly the same in terms of percentages.  If the Dow is going to head lower, they will knock gold down initially.  They will not let gold be seen as the alternative when the Dow runs into difficulty, at least initially.  Eventually gold will come to the forefront, but in the early stages we are going to have to endure this. What I’m most concerned about is the big picture for everything because I think conditions are deteriorating at an alarming rate. All of this is being obscured by bogus statistics, hype and mainstream promotion. I don’t believe anything has gotten better and the fact is this will manifest itself in most markets, which will be hurt by the action, whereas gold and silver will be the ultimate  beneficiaries.  But in the short-term you have to go through a little pain and I think that’s exactly where we are.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management-

Belakangan ini, hubungan antara berbagai aset sangat erat.  Misalnya saham, emas dan juga kebanyakan mata uang utama terhadap dolar AS selama beberapa bulan terakhir pada umumnya bergerak kearah yang sama.

Oleh karena itu bursa saham AS, yang selama ini masih berlaku sebagai benchmark untuk bursa saham lainnya, patut diperhatikan oleh investor di pasar emas.  Soalnya kini S&P 500 ibaratnya berada di ujung tanduk, yang ditunjukkan oleh grafik harian dibawah ini.

Sejak awal bulan Oktober 2011, indeks saham yang terdiri dari 500 perusahaan terbesar di Amerika Serikat membentuk sebuah rising wedge yang makin hari makin menyempit.  Pola ini pada umumnya bearish, maka penetrasi support yang sekarang terletak di sekitar 1310 perlu diwaspadai dengan seksama.

Selain itu, suatu bearish divergence di Relative Strength Index mengancam kelanjutan penguatan bursa saham AS.  Lagipula MACD atau Moving Average Convergence-Divergence juga telah memulai penurunannya jadi probabilitas cukup besar bahwa indeks S&P 500 akan terkoreksi dalam waktu dekat.

US dollar makin perkasa

“For a decade I have been urging my subscribers to move into gold – either physical bullion or otherwise. Now I am at it again PLEASE MOVE INTO GOLD. Those who think gold has lapsed into a bear market simply do not know what they are talking about. Gold has simply been correcting in an on-going bull market. This is a time when almost every central bank in the world is grinding out paper currency, grinding it out by the car-load. This is a time when people are searching for safety. People are frightened and confused. Where is the land of safety? There is only one safe asset on the planet: that safe asset is gold. Uninformed people believe gold is just a commodity. Wrong, gold is absolute money. Gold alone is the world’s only completely safe currency. Gold has no counter-party against it, and no central bank has ever found a way to create gold. Almost every nation on earth has indulged in the same kind of fiscal madness. To cover the insane spending, nations have had to create an almost endless amount of fiat currency. This avalanche of “money” has steadily reduced the buying power of almost every currency. The result is that it takes increasingly more paper currency to buy one ounce of real money – gold. Gold may now be ending its latest correction. If I am correct in this, gold is in a buying zone.”

-Richard Russell, 87-year old writer of the Dow Theory Letters-

Disamping bursa saham AS yang bisa merosot setiap saat, faktor kedua yang sangat mempengaruhi pergerakan harga emas adalah nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama di dunia.  Hingga kini korelasi antara emas dan US dollar tetap negatif, artinya jika dolar AS menguat emas cenderung tertekan dan sebaliknya.

Coba kita melihat daily chart dari US dollar index dibawah ini terlebih dahulu agar tidak ada keraguan mengenai arah pergerakan selanjutnya, baik dari US dollar dan harga emas.  Ternyata struktur ataupun pola dari indeks dolar AS terpampang dengan jelas dan mudah sekali untuk diterangkan.

Setelah US dollar index menyelesaikan impulsive wave dari 74.724 hingga 81.784 dan corrective wave sampai 78.095, dolar AS kembali menguat terhadap kebanyakan mata uang lainnya.  Sinyal awalnya untuk kebangkitan US dollar pada bulan Februari sudah diberikan oleh bullish divergence di MACD lines, dan selanjutnya diperkuat oleh sebuah key reversal day (dimana indeks dolar AS mencetak level terendah barunya dalam wave C tapi berhasil ditutup di atas level penutupan sehari sebelumnya).  Apalagi candle tersebut membentuk sebuah bullish engulfing, jadi pola pembalikan sungguh kuat.

Sekali bursa saham melemah secara signifikan, suatu rally di US dollar index akan berkembang menuju level tertinggi dari impulsive wave sebelumnya di 81.784, dan kemungkinan membukukan new 52 week highs.  Itu seharusnya pada gilirannya menekan harga emas, yang dapat terkoreksi lagi ke zona support di antara $1,525/toz dan $1,550/toz.

Skenario dalam jangka pendek

“Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, … may as well induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper.”

-“Bond King” Bill Gross-

4-hourly chart dari emas dibawah ini menggambarkan kondisi pasar pada saat ini.  Seperti dapat Anda lihat wave (1) dan (2) kemungkinan telah selesai, dan kita sekarang akan menyaksikan subwaves 1 hingga 5 dari wave (3) dalam beberapa hari kedepan.

Apabila perhitungan dari Elliott Wave ini tidak salah, kita seharusnya segera membentuk subwave 3 dari wave (3), yang pada umumnya paling besar dan paling panjang.  Maka waspadailah koreksi yang cukup tajam (kira-kira $75/toz hingga $125/toz) dalam waktu dekat, yang mungkin juga akan didukung oleh RSI yang overbought maupun perpotongan MACD lines ke bawah.

Apakah Iran akan diserang?

“Gold is the logical choice and the next step in the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.  There’s a lot of demand for the dollar to buy and sell oil.  If countries stop using it, demand for the dollar would fall, at the very time the US is greatly increasing the supply of dollars. The day is coming then trillions of dollars outside the US will only be spendable inside the US.  At that point it’s game over for the dollar.”

-Doug Casey-

Perseteruan antara Iran di satu sisi dan Israel maupun Amerika Serikat di sisi lain hangat dibicarakan belakangan ini.  Jika resikonya secara geopolitics makin meningkat kedepan dan sebuah perang tidak dapat dihindarkan, seharusnya logam mulia diburu oleh investor sebagai sebuah safe haven yang memberikan perlindungan ketika pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia terancam turun.

Marc Faber, yang menerbitkan the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, pun memperingati investor dan mengatakan hal berikut ini pada sebuah investment conference:

“Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now.  I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran – it’s almost inevitable.”

“Say war breaks out in the Middle East or anywhere else, (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman) Mr. Bernanke will just print even more money – they have no option … they haven’t got the money to finance a war.”

Tentunya ketegangan di Timur Tengah pada akhirnya akan mendorong harga minyak naik, dan menyebabkan tingkat inflasi maupun harga emas cenderung melonjak (lihat grafik diatas ini).  Hal tersebut diuraikan dengan cemerlang oleh James Turk dari GoldMoney, jadi kita sebaiknya tidak mengabaikan apa yang disampaikan olehnya:

“There have been three phases: the first, when OPEC jacked up the price of oil; the second when more expensive non-OPEC fields came on stream putting a cap on prices, and finally the third, where prices have increased seven times so far.  It is this third trend, from which there is no apparent escape.  The chart is on a logarithmic scale, which means that prices have been rising at an exponential rate since 1998.”

“With the production/consumption imbalance set to deteriorate further, there can be only one result, and that is considerably higher prices.  And with quantitative easing in the markets there will be extra money to pay higher prices, the consequences for global price inflation do not bear thinking about.”

“Living with an energy supply crisis will require a radical change in our lifestyles – downwards.  The best financial protection from this event appears to be physical gold, which has tracked the price of oil reasonably well over the years as shown in the chart, and can be expected to continue to do so.  After all, the combination of the most rapid global monetary expansion in peace-time history and soaring oil prices is an inflationary disaster in the making.

QE atau tidak?

“If something goes awry in Europe that could easily lead to a sharp and very big selloff in gold, just as was the case in 2008.  People sold gold because they needed liquidity.  Gold went down sharply and then it just zoomed (higher).  It was like a rocket ship on the way back. If it happens it will be temporary and you should buy all you can possibly buy because if you think we are flooding the world with money now, wait until you see what happens if Europe really starts teetering. They will literally, as Bernanke once said, they will be dropping it (money) from helicopters.”

-Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management-

Meskipun Ben Bernanke baru saja mengatakan didepan anggota Kongres AS bahwa ia tidak akan menambah QE atau Quantitative Easing dalam waktu dekat dan Yunani telah berhasil melakukan bond swap dengan mayoritas kreditur swasta, saya secara pribadi tetap khawatir akan dua hal:

1. Perekonomian Eropa kemungkinan besar akan mengalami resesi dalam semester pertama ini.  Sebagai akibatnya, ekonomi AS maupun Cina pun diperkirakan akan melambat, dan pada gilirannya menyebabkan bursa saham dunia merosot lagi;
2. Apapun yang terjadi, Yunani tetap akan bangkrut dalam beberapa bulan kedepan!  Mengapa demikian?  Karena negara inti di Eropa mulai enggan untuk memberikan dana talangan secara terus-menerus, dan masyarakat di Yunani sudah jenuh dengan program penghematan yang dipaksakan oleh Uni Eropa.  Maka jangan heran apabila tiba-tiba ada sebuah pengumuman yang menyerukan bahwa Yunani telah memutuskan untuk meninggalkan penggunaan euro dan beralih kembali ke drachma …

Bahkan tidak semua anggota the Fed setuju dengan Bernanke mengenai kebutuhan akan stimulus tambahan.  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams misalnya mengatakan the Fed sebaiknya melanjutkan suatu “extraordinary supportive policy” atau kebijakan moneter yang sangat mendukung untuk mengurangi tingkat pengangguran yang kemungkinan akan melampaui 7% selama beberapa tahun mendatang.  Lalu ia juga menambahkan: “This is clearly a situation in which we have to keep applying monetary policy stimulus rigorously.  Looking ahead, we may need to do more if the recovery falters or if inflation stays well below 2%.”

Jadi dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang kedepan, performa emas diperkirakan masih akan cenderung menguat seiring ekspektasi bahwa ECB dan the Fed akan melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneternya untuk menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi.  Dengan meningkatnya jumlah uang yang dicetak oleh bank sentral, maka investor cenderung akan lebih memilih emas sebagai mekanisme lindung nilai terhadap merosotnya nilai investasi pada uang kertas dan portofolio investasi lainnya.

Dan … hanya sebagai tambahan saja, bank sentral di Amerika Serikat telah membeli hutang perumahan (KPR) maupun pemerintah senilai $2.3 trilliun selama dua putaran quantitative easing dari Desember 2008 hingga Juni 2011, yang memacu suatu lonjakan dalam harga emas sebesar 70%.  Maka coba bayangkan apa yang akan terjadi apabila QE3 ternyata terwujud …

Proyeksi Elliott Wave untuk harga emas

“… the physical stock of gold hasn’t changed.  All that’s changing is the fundamental cheapness of the metals vis a vis the paper they are priced in. If you go back and look at the Bretton Woods model of valuing money, they would take monetary base and divide it by official gold holdings. They came up with a price of $35 which they tried to maintain. If you were to do that today, you would find that price would be around $10,000.  That’s obviously because since 2008 the Fed has increased base money about 215% to $2.7 trillion.  I think more than anything that qualifies the magnitude of potential change in the gold price. We think base money in the US is going to rise from about $2.7 trillion to $15 trillion to $17 trillion.  All we know is before it’s through, the price (of gold) is going to be significantly higher than where it is today.”

-Paul Brodsky, QB Asset Management Company-

Grafik berikut ini dari Nick Laird di www.sharelynx.com pasti akan membuat semua pecinta emas “ngiler” sehubungan target yang ditetapkan menggiurkan sekali.  Garis biru dengan dua gelombang pertama naik adalah pergerakan emas hingga kini, sementara garis merah adalah estimasi harga emas berdasarkan dua gelombang naik yang telah selesai dibentuk.

Dengan kata lain, grafik tersebut memperlihatkan peta jalan dari emas di masa yang akan datang.  Nick sendiri menyebutnya “… chart porn – the best chart I’ve ever done on gold.  This to me as a T/A (technical analyst) is a Picasso or Rembrandt – it is a work of art.  What’s more, watch this chart every month for the next 16 months and we should hit W4(B) (see position on chart) by June 2013.  If that happens then watch out.”

Saya harus mengakui sepenuhnya setuju dengannya, dan seharusnya setiap investor di pasar emas menyimpan chart ini dengan baik.  Namun selalu ingat juga bahwa Elliott Wave itu tidak sempurna, jadi gunakan ini hanya sebagai sebuah peta kasar yang dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu berkaitan dengan kondisi perekonomian yang sangat dinamis.

Kesimpulan

“To me, it all seems crystal clear at this point.  To avert a near-term economic and financial implosion the authorities throughout the developed world will have to hold their noses and stimulate to whatever degree necessary. No politician today wants to see the system collapse on his watch, so the world will risk eventual hyperinflation and a collapse of the present currency regime rather than voluntarily accept a debt deflation. Given that this credit cycle has dwarfed anything seen in the history of mankind, its resolution is going to be something to behold. Global Financial Crisis No. 1 in 2008 was merely the hors d’oeuvre and we are now awaiting the main course. I envision something along the lines of a hyperinflationary depression accompanied by the final denouement of the latest experiment with pure fiat currency – that is, the worst of all worlds. In the event that I am right, I can assure you that the demand for physical gold and silver is going to overrun all possible sources of supply and even the most outrageously bullish price projections for gold and silver may be exceeded.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management-

Dalam jangka pendek (2 hingga 5 pekan kedepan) emas kemungkinan besar masih akan cenderung tertekan menyusul penguatan US dollar maupun pelemahan bursa saham dunia dan komoditas secara umum.  Menurut hemat saya, koreksi harga emas belum selesai sepenuhnya jadi kita sebaiknya membuka posisi jual untuk sementara waktu ataupun menahan diri apabila ingin membeli emas.

Salah satu skenario yang saya sedang mengamati adalah kemungkinan terbentuknya sebuah inverted head-and-shoulders, seperti dapat Anda lihat pada weekly chart diatas ini.  Apabila penurunan kedepan misalnya tertahan di zona support antara $1,550/toz hingga $1,580/toz, bukan tidak mungkin right shoulder atau bahu kanan akan terbentuk.

Lalu jika pada akhirnya harga emas selanjutnya naik lagi dan memecahkan neckline atau garis leher di sekitar $1,770/toz, target penguatan di semester kedua adalah $2,050/toz.  Tetapi sekali lagi perlu saya tekankan bahwa itu secara garis besar akan tergantung pada jumlah uang yang akan dicetak oleh berbagai bank sentral maupun (in)stabilitas di Timur Tengah.

Pada akhirnya saya sangat bullish terhadap emas (dan juga perak) dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang, tetapi dalam jangka pendek emas mungkin akan berkonsolidasi terlebih dahulu sebelum memecahkan resistance dan mencetak level tertinggi terbaru.

Maka jangan lupa untuk buy gold on the dips atau membeli emas pada waktu terkoreksi secara signifikan karena ketika pencetakan uang dimulai kembali, emas tetap merupakan salah satu aset terbaik untuk melindungi kekayaan Anda apabila tingkat inflasi tidak terbendung lagi!

Memang tidak ada yang pasti di hidup kita – kecuali membayar pajak setiap tahun dan meninggal dunia – namun sampai real interest rates positif lagi, krisis hutang di Eropa bisa diatasi dengan baik, dan defisit anggaran di negara maju dikurangi maupun nilai mata uang utama dipertahankan sesungguhnya, saya tetap akan membeli emas sebagai sebuah inflation hedge, safe haven dan alat diversifikasi untuk portofolio saya.  Bagaimana dengan Anda?

Selamat berinvestasi dan/atau bertransaksi di pasar emas, dan semoga sukses dan sehat selalu!