“The dollar’s going to be more sensitive to upside surprises than downside, the risk reward is for the dollar to rally. The underlying growth in the U.S. is still there. The slowdown in data is just temporary.”
— Michael Sneyd, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA
Anda mungkin telah mengetahui bahwa saya telah menyampaikan dengan jelas forecast dolar AS di beberapa bulan ke depan adalah: naik!
Artinya saya bersentimen bearish untuk mayoritas mata uang asing lainnya yang dipasangkan terhadap dolar AS.
Meskipun sejumlah data ekonomi baru-baru ini tidak memenuhi harapan, sentimen pasar masih cukup meningkat dan QE taper diproyeksikan akan berlanjut, yang mengindikasikan sikap confidence dari bank sentral AS.
Bahkan hampir seluruh pelaku pasar kini mengantisipasi rencana taper bank sentral AS tersebut. Setelah fase spekulasi Mei-September 2013 menekan dolar, kini taper yang aktual memberikan dukungan bagi kenaikan dolar AS.
Misalnya, taper dari bank sentral AS telah menekan mata uang negara-negara berkembang karena membuat para investor melepas mata uang non-dolar AS dalam kapasitas terbesarnya dalam beberapa tahun. Pada gilirannya ini memicu peningkatan value dari dolar AS.
Jadi meskipun banyak yang masih ragu terhadap dolar AS, saya tetap proyeksikan kenaikannya yang cukup signifikan atas mata uang utama dunia di sepanjang tahun 2014 ini.
Rodney Johnson, editor senior dari Survive & Prosper, juga terlihat sangat yakin terhadap dolar AS.
Untuk mengetahui alasannya maka bacalah tulisan singkatnya di bawah ini yang juga dilengkapi dengan data menarik mengenai penggunaan mata uang utama di dunia:
Of Course the U.S. Dollar Will Get Stronger
Our research is based on people and how they spend money in predictable ways over the course of their lives.
We, as consumers, spend a lot when we’re young. We take on a bunch of debt (for homes, cars, etc.) as we begin to raise a family. Then we pay down our debt and save for retirement.
It’s pretty straightforward, which is why so many people, when they read or hear our economic analysis, tend to agree with us.
We end up hearing the general refrain: “Of course having a bunch of Boomers spending money drove the economy higher… Of course this changed as the group refocused on paying down debt and saving… Of course the natural trend is deflation… Of course the U.S. dollar will get stronger.”
Oh, hey, wait a minute. Take back that last one!
This is where we get the most friction and pushback from readers and other analysts.
“There is no way the U.S. dollar will get stronger,” they say.
“The Fed is printing money by the truckload. China is growing in importance every day. Other countries continually call for re-pricing international markets, like oil, away from the U.S. dollar,” they say.
“Clearly, in this one area, you’re wrong,” they say.
There’s just one problem with this anti-dollar view. That is: People are using more of the U.S. dollar today, not less.
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) conducts a survey every three years on the use of currencies. The last one was in 2013.
One of the measures in the survey shows the percentage of foreign currency transactions that include each currency listed. Comparing the 2010 figures to the 2013 results, the U.S. dollar gained ground, moving up by 2%, and remained the most commonly used currency in the world.
The euro, while hanging on to its ranking as the second-most used currency, fell by 5.7%.
But these results aren’t what is so impressive… it’s the gap between the two that really sticks in your mind.
The U.S. dollar was involved in 87% of all foreign currency transactions in April 2013. The euro — remember, the second-most used currency — was involved in only 33.4% of all transactions. And the gap between the two is getting bigger, not smaller.
As for the Chinese renminbi… well, it gained ground also.
It moved from being included in 1% of transactions to a whopping 2.2%. The percentage gain is huge, but the absolute number is almost a rounding error.
The facts that people quote when challenging our view of a stronger dollar certainly exist.
The Federal Reserve is printing a mountain of money.
The Chinese are flexing their monetary muscle in the international markets.
Traders and investors around the world have long expressed a desire to move away from the U.S. dollar.
However, these forces are not strong enough to challenge, much less change, the dominant position of the U.S. dollar in the near future.
The reason is that no currency currently serves as a reserve of anything. The idea that there is a preservation of value in any currency went out the door with the gold standard more than four decades ago.
Today, every currency is simply a floating gauge of value in relation to other currencies, with none of them backed by gold, oil, wheat, land, or anything else.
So the question of what currency will dominate markets comes down to matters like trade, ease of comparison, and the efficiency of transactions.
Looked at from this point of view, the choice of the U.S. dollar is a no-brainer. It’s widely held, easily converted, and is paired with every currency so that local prices are immediately understood by all parties.
The only way to unseat the U.S. dollar is to have our economic growth drop dramatically, while every other major currency player enjoys a major expansion. The possibility of these two trends occurring at the same time seems remote, to say the least, particularly when our research calls for just about the opposite.
The U.S. is in the strongest position among the major players, so instead of losing ground, the U.S. dollar should enjoy further gains. As that happens, investors who have positioned themselves for a falling dollar will see their positions take a hit.
They’d be better off if they learned to give the U.S. dollar a little love ahead of time.
Selain itu adalah Chris Mayer, the managing editor pada the Capital and Crisis serta media Mayer’s Special Situations, yang membayang-bayangkan jika dolar tertekan.
Sebagai tambahan, Mayer juga mencoba jawab pertanyaan apakah akan terjadi pemulihan dan/atau apakah koreksi di bursa saham akan terlambat.
Mr. Mayer membahas 3 topik tersebut dengan pendekatan current account deficit AS:
The U.S. Dollar is (Still) King
Adam Smith was a great 18th-century thinker and pioneer in economics. He had an idea about how to predict when a financial crisis was imminent. In his magisterial work, The Wealth of Nations, he wrote: “Follow the flows, baby. Follow the flows.”
Well, if he didn’t write it, he should have.
The fact is modern economies float on a sea of money. When you drain that money away, some of the ships start to run aground. The U.S. current account is one way to measure the water level for the global economy.
Right now, it’s giving off a major warning signal…
You can think of the U.S. current account balance as reflecting the flow of dollars to and from foreigners. A negative U.S. current account balance means foreigners are adding to their dollar holdings as dollars are flowing out of the U.S.
When an American buys an imported good, the current account balance reflects that transaction as a negative number. Dollars flow out and the good flows in. Much of the time, the U.S. has had a negative current account balance. But when it hasn’t, or when the size of the deficit shrinks, bad things tend to happen to markets abroad.
I borrow the nearby chart from Charles Gave, a 40-year veteran of markets and co-founder of the research firm GaveKal. In a note he put out on Feb. 7, Gave writes:
“During my career, all international financial crises have occurred against the backdrop of an improving U.S. current account deficit as evidenced by the first chart.”
In the chart above, a widening U.S. current account deficit is above the zero line. (The chart’s flipped.) When the current account slips below the zero line, the deficit is shrinking. The U.S., in a sense, is shipping out fewer dollars. As Gave says, it is “adding less liquidity.”
You can see that when the shaded red part is below the zero line, some kind of crisis occurs. And look where we are now. Yes, below the zero line.
When the current account balance shrinks, there are fewer dollars going overseas, which creates a problem for other countries. As Gave writes:
“The problem is that the rest of the world must find dollars to buy energy, conduct trade settlement and service dollar debts.”
The U.S. dollar is (still) the king of currencies. It is the reserve currency. This means other countries rely on it and use it. They don’t settle up in Chinese yuan or euros or yen. (Not on any great scale.) They use dollars.
So think back to old Econ 101. Less supply and strong demand means the price goes up. So a whole raft of foreign currencies has fallen against the U.S. dollar in the last year.
But there are other interesting correlations at work here, too.
Global bear markets tend to happen when U.S. current account improves, as Gave points out. That’s not a surprise. Think about what those depreciating currencies mean for the economies involved. It means it is becoming more expensive to buy things from abroad.
The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting article about the effect of this in South Africa. Sheffield makes auto parts and cutlery in South Africa, where the rand has lost nearly 25% of its value against the dollar in the last year.
Sheffield must now pay more for nickel and chrome imports. It can’t pass these costs on, so its profit margins get squeezed. The weak rand also squeezes consumers. Workers have gone on strike for wage increases. It gets messy quickly.
To some extent, all of these countries have to go through some adjustments as their currencies fall. These won’t be painless. It can make it hard on some businesses in these countries. And no surprise, the stocks tend to underperform.
The flip side is that U.S. stocks tend to outperform. Again, not surprising. Gave distills it down to the essence: “If the world outside of the U.S. faces a shortage of dollars, then one should be invested in the place with a concentration of enterprises that hold positive cash flows in dollars.”
That place is, of course, the U.S.
Since 1970, U.S. stocks have tended to beat out global markets when the U.S. current account improves. The U.S. cut the dollar’s remaining ties to gold in 1971. Ever since, it’s floated and been nonconvertible into anything but itself. So any analysis before that date is not applicable. Take a look at the nearby chart.
This doesn’t mean U.S. stocks have to go up. U.S. stocks could simply go down less than foreign stocks. (Note the EAFE index in the above stands for Europe, Australasia and the Far East. It’s the oldest international stock index, dating back to 1969. I suppose that’s why Gave chose it.)
Besides, the usual caveats apply. There is no guarantee that markets will conform to past patterns. And everything above is essentially backward looking. It explains what has already happened. Trends can change quickly. The U.S. current account deficit can turn around and widen again. Some foreign markets may well prove excellent buys here. (I have my favorites.)
The main point here is to recognize the pressure the shrinking U.S. current account puts on the rest of the world. You ignore these macroeconomic credit conditions at your peril.
As Jim Grant put it in a recent interview when asked about investors fancying themselves macroeconomists:
“Let me tell you first about the ones who refused to fancy themselves macroeconomists. Investors who turned a blind eye to credit — to monetary policy, to the Federal Reserve — didn’t notice the stupendous buildup of bad debt through 2007. They tended to own a lot of optically cheap financial stocks that got cheaper and cheaper until they weren’t there anymore.”
The current credit cycle is one of tightening global liquidity in U.S. dollars abroad. Yet I continue to hear and read about how “emerging markets are cheap.” Some of them may well be. But maybe they are cheap for a good reason. They can just get cheaper. And cheaper still.
“We can’t know the future,” Grant added, “but we can observe the present.”
I agree. What the present shows is that the risk of a global bear market is high. It also shows how dependent much of the rest of the world is on U.S. dollars.
The U.S. dollar is still — still! — the king of fiat currencies.
What Do the Charts Say?
Untuk gambaran teknikal mengenai dolar AS dan euro, mari kita lihat yang dijelaskan oleh John C. Burford, salah satu analis favorit saya dan editor di MoneyWeek Trader.
Meskipun tulisannya dibuat 21 Februari 2014, namun masih sangat relevan dengan situasi pasar saat ini:
There’s a bull move coming in the dollar
When I last covered the euro, I noted that I was wrong in my short-term analysis. And I’m OK with that. Being wrong is a fact of life in trading. We are dealing with probabilities, not certainties. And we always have incomplete information which only comes to light later.
Successful trading is about losing as little as possible on your losers and making as much as possible on your winners. But when you do go wrong, it always helps to go back and see why it happened. That way, you can hopefully learn from your mistakes.
Where did I go wrong?
After studying the hourly chart again that I had on 14 February, I realized I may have been wrong in my tramline placement. This is the problem: on some charts, it is possible to find more than one valid tramline pair that fits the highs and lows.
But these alternative tramlines only come to light after we have made our first attempt. Let me show you what I mean – here is the chart I showed a week ago:
I started with the lower tramline because the lows appeared to lie on or close to a straight line. If I could fit those onto a line with only small over- and under-shoots, I should have a reliable line of support. And if I could also have a prior pivot point (PPP), that would make it even more secure.
With this line in place, the next step was to look for the upper tramline. I found three accurate highs right away, but I had to cut off the extreme spike high to the 1.39 level in the process. With this, I believed I had a great tramline pair.
The tramline break on 14 February then gave me a signal to go long EUR/USD at around the 1.3680 level.
The euro is about to resume its bear trend
Call it instinct, but there was something telling me that this trade might not be a big winner, despite the clear tramline break buy signal. This is the longer-term picture:
From the 1.50 high, the bear market down is in five clear impulsive waves to the July 2012 low at 1.20. Not only that, but the relief rally is in a clear A-B-C form – and the C wave high has carried to the Fibonacci 62% retrace. This is straight out of the Elliott wave textbook, where relief rallies most often turn at this 62% level.
The big picture is very clear: the euro is about to resume its bear trend.
This puts the short-term long euro trade in doubt as a longer-term prospect.
Always be prepared to amend your tramlines
Can the short-term picture reveal any useful information? Here is the hourly chart as of this morning:
With seven days’ trading action since my last post now available, I am able to draw in a new tramline pair. Now I have an even better PPP and two accurate touch points on my lower tramline.
But the interesting line is the upper tramline: it takes in the 1.39 spike high top! Now I do not have to cut off this spike high, as I did last time. The high on Wednesday is an accurate touch point which confirms the line as resistance.
This makes me much more comfortable with these tramlines. But I could only draw them given the trading action from the past week, which was obviously unavailable last time.
Remember, when using tramlines, you must be prepared to amend your lines in the light of current market action.
Are we about to see a decline?
If these new tramlines are valid, then this week’s rally to the upper tramline line of resistance was consistent. And if this high holds that would likely mean the trend has started down again.
It’s time to take a closer look because I see that the rally from early February has some interesting highs and lows that could be forming a useful pattern:
Sure enough, I can draw a potential wedge on this rally – and I can label five clear Elliott waves to it. Wave 3 is not the longest wave, although it usually is. But so long as it is not the shortest, that is ok. Wave 5 is extended – and has five clear sub-waves complete with a large negative momentum divergence.
Remember, a fifth wave is an ending wave.
This is now painting a very different picture to that given by my original tramline break. That indicated a long trade at the 1.3680 level and could have resulted in a profit to the 1.3780 Wednesday high, or at least a break-even trade.
But the longer-term potential trade now is to the downside. If my wedge pattern is accurate, a break of it should herald a swift decline to at least the start of the wedge at the 1.35 area.
What the COT data tells us
One of the data points I use when assessing the potential for a large move is that given by the COT (commitments of traders) data. Here is the latest set as of 11 February:
During the latest rally, both sets of specs (non-commercials and non-reportables) swung a very long way into the bullish camp (while the smart money commercials took the other side of those trades).
I am confident that there has been an even greater bullish swing since that data was published (the next data set is due out later today).
Trader attitudes towards the US dollar have been running bearish of late, as traders have wondered if the recent spate of disappointing US economic data would weaken the resolve of the Fed to continue tapering. It’s now a real possibility that the Fed will not be stopping their printing presses after all.
So with the build-up of bullish positions, the scene is set for a potential swift decline and a big bull move in the dollar.
Di akhir laporan saya, agar tetap ceria, berikut sebuah gambar lucu untuk Anda:
Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!
Dibuat Tanggal 04 Maret 2014