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Apakah ledakan gelembung hutang akan segera terdengar (Part 2)?

March 27th, 2012 4 comments

“Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces.”

-Sigmund Freud-

Belakangan ini, banyak pelaku pasar mulai berpuas hati atau complacent lagi setelah Yunani memperoleh pemangkasan hutang maupun bailout kedua.  Namun saya secara pribadi masih berpendapat bahwa Yunani pada akhirnya akan menuju “ajalnya”, dan bantuan kemarin hanya mengulur waktu saja.

 

Deal or no deal, Yunani tetap akan bangkrut

“The Greek deal is a sham.  It’s designed to make everybody feel better.  This Greece deal is only designed to get us through the French election and the American election and the German election.”

-Jim Rogers-

Ternyata beberapa analis lainnya pun berpikiran demikian.  Intinya adalah bahwa selama Yunani berada di Uni Eropa dan memakai euro sebagai mata uangnya, negara tersebut tidak akan bangkit!

John Mauldin, dalam Thoughts from the FRONTLINE, barangkali dapat menggambarkan kondisi perekonomian terkini di Yunani dengan sangat jelas:

“Greece is having an “orderly” default.  The taxpayers of Europe are in theory going to lend €130 billion to Greece to pay back €100 billion in Greek debt that is owed to private lenders.  Greece has to pass several difficult tests in order to get the money.  €100 billion of debt to private lenders will be written off.  Thus the net effect will be that they owe €30 billion more.  How does this help Greece, except that they get €30 billion more they cannot pay?”

“The “new” debt is already trading in the market, even though it has not actually been issued.  (Don’t bother traders with messy details, just do the deal.)  This page from Bloomberg is just too delicious not to print, sent to me courtesy of Dan Greenhaus of BTIG.  It shows the new Greek bonds trading at over a 71-79% discount, depending on the length of maturity.  Note this is AFTER the 53% haircut already imposed.  That reads to me like the market value of original Greek debt is now between 12 and 14% of the original face value.”

Greece itself is in free fall.  The “benefits” of austerity have not become apparent, as the Greek economy saw growth rates of -0.2% in 2008, -3.3% in 2009, -3.4% in 2010, -6.9% in 2011, and …?  The 4th quarter of last year saw a GDP fall of 7.5%.  Do you see a trend here?  The Greek economy is down by almost one-fifth in less than five years.  Unemployment has risen to 20%, and 50% among young people, many of whom are leaving the country.  Resentment has grown among ordinary Greeks over the austerity medicine ordered by international creditors, which has compounded the pain.  Greek papers are full of stories blaming Germany for their problems.”

“By any standard, what will soon be a 20% drop can be classified as a depression.  There is nothing on the horizon to suggest things will turn around any time soon.  The country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 160% of nominal gross domestic product, AFTER the debt restructuring.  If Greece can find someone to lend them more money, it will only get worse.”

“The current agreement with the EU will not improve the economy, but require even more wage cuts, government spending cuts, and higher taxes and unemployment.  The problem is that if Greece leaves the euro, those problems do not go away, they just take a different form.  There is still a great deal of economic pain for Greece as a consequence of past decisions.  It is sad, but there is no other choice, unless the rest of Europe or the world, through the IMF, simply gives Greece all the money they want.  But then where do you stop?”

Selain itu, pembuat kebijakan di Jerman juga tidak begitu optimis mengenai daya tahan Yunani pada masa mendatang.  Sebagai buktinya, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich dalam sebuah wawancara dengan majalah berita Der Spiegel mengatakan:

“I do not mean that Greece should be kicked out of the 17-nation eurozone, but to create incentives for an exit that they cannot turn down.  Outside the European monetary union Greece’s chances of regenerating itself and become competitive are definitely bigger than if it remained inside the eurozone.”

 

Kemudian the conservative Die Welt menambahkan: “As long as the Greeks remain in the euro zone, they will never become competitive.  All the assistance that is based on the illusion that Greece can make it while remaining part of the euro area is doomed to fizzle out without having any effect.  The longer it takes for political leaders in Berlin, Brussels and Athens to accepts this reality, the more expensive it will be for the citizens of their countries.  Greece will be better off if it abandons the euro – and the euro zone will be better off without Greece.”

Bahkan pemuka agama merasa terpanggil untuk memberikan pendapatnya.  Misalnya dalam sebuah surat yang ditujukkan untuk Perdana Menteri Yunani, Archbishop of Athens and All Greece Ieronymos menyampaikan:

“Homelessness and even hunger – phenomena seen during the [Second World] war – have reached nightmare levels …  A sense of patience among Greeks is running out, giving way to a sense of anger, and the danger of a social explosion can no longer be ignored.”

“… We must all understand the feeling of insecurity, desperation and depression in every Greek home.  This, unfortunately, is continuing to cause suicide among those who can no longer stand the drama in their family and the suffering of their children.  …  We are being asked to take even larger doses of a medicine that has proven to be deadly and to undertake commitments that do not solve the problem, but only temporarily postpone the foretold death of our economy …  And what is likely to follow are more painful, more unjust measures in the same hopeless and unsuccessful course of our recent past.”

Secara sederhana Yunani tidak mungkin mampu dan tidak pernah akan menjadi kompetitif sebagai bagian dari suatu currency union dengan Jerman.  Artinya Yunani akan membutuhkan dana bantuan terus-menerus dan kehilangan kemandiriannya secara fiskal dalam waktu yang panjang.  Tetapi kemauan politis yang diperlukan untuk mendukung solusi ini tidak ada, maka Yunani pada akhirnya dapat dipastikan akan keluar dari the euro zone.

Lalu Grant Williams dari Vulpes Investment Management menyimpulkannya seperti berikut ini:

“Tomorrow MAY bring a ‘solution’ to the Greek problem but, mark my words, it will NOT last.  Greece is done as a member of the EU.  At best, the latest austerity measures are SUPPOSED to get Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio down to 120% (which, incidentally, is where Italy currently stands – and Italy has a real economy).  That cannot be sustained and, as Herbert Stein’s Law so beautifully states: If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.  The bailing out of Greece cannot go on forever.  It will stop.”

The plain truth is this:

  • Greece cannot pay its current debts back.  Ever.
  • More money is NOT the answer.
  • Greece cannot even begin to recover while still chained to the Euro and unable to devalue.
  • Greek citizens will NOT suddenly decide to pay their taxes.
  • Greece’s exit from the EU will be incredibly painful and the country will likely go into a depression.”

“But:

  • Greece is NOT the first country to default (just the first in the EU)
  • Greece WILL be able to get back on its feet eventually through devaluation
  • The sooner this process starts, the sooner it finishes – look at Iceland”

Dan … Variant Perception terakhirnya menekankan bahwa sebuah kebangkrutan dari Yunani sebetulnya tidak terlalu perlu dikhawatirkan karena sebelumnya banyak negara telah mengalami nasib serupa:

“Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas with little downward economic volatility.  The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible, and historical examples provide a roadmap for exit.  The real problem in Europe is that EU peripheral countries face severe, unsustainable imbalances in real effective exchange rates and external debt levels that are higher than most previous emerging market crises.

Orderly defaults and debt rescheduling coupled with devaluations are inevitable and even desirable.  Exiting from the euro and devaluation would accelerate insolvencies, but would provide a powerful policy tool via flexible exchange rates.  The European periphery could then grow again quickly with deleveraged balance sheets and more competitive exchange rates, much like many emerging markets after recent defaults and devaluations (Asia 1997, Russia 1998, and Argentina 2002).”

Spanyol merupakan ancaman yang lebih besar ketimbang Yunani

“There is no question that the whole Greek situation is hopeless. Central planners can paper it over in the short-run and say what they want, but the Greek economy is destroyed. Ultimately, I think there is no choice but to leave the euro and reintroduce the drachma. That will be extremely disruptive, but I don’t see another outcome unless the Germans and the rest of the Northern Europeans are prepared to carry these guys and I don’t think that’s going to be the case. There is absolutely a danger of contagion.  Take Spain as an example, it’s a great country and I like Spain immensely, but I don’t like their financial positions or their employment situation. When you’ve got 50% of your 16 to 25 year old males unemployed, your economy is contracting and your Prime Minister comes out and says, ‘We can’t possibly meet the budget requirements the European Union is putting on us,’ that tells you everything you need to know. Contagion is a major risk.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management-

Negara yang paling perlu diperhatikan dalam 6 bulan kedepan, selain Portugal dan Irlandia yang kemungkinan (besar) akan membutuhkan dana penyelamatan tambahan, adalah Spanyol.  Mengapa demikian?

Adapun beberapa faktor yang dapat menyebabkan “kejatuhan Spanyol kedalam jurang kenistaan”:

  1. Negara ini mempunyai tingkat pengangguran yang tertingginya di euro zone, yaitu lebih dari 23%.  Dengan jumlah penganggur yang meningkat hingga 4,7 juta pada bulan Februari, Spanyol berkontribusi hampir sepertiga dari semua orang yang tanpa pekerjaan di Uni Eropa.
  2. Spanyol juga sedang bergelut dengan dampak dari housing bubble yang pecah secara dramatis selama krisis kredit, dan mengakibatkan banyak masalah untuk sistem perbankannya.
  3. Defisit anggaran Spanyol untuk 2011 jauh lebih buruk dari perkiraannya yakni 8,5%, atau 2,5 persen lebih tinggi daripada yang direncanakan.  Selanjutnya pemerintah baru saja mengumumkan bahwa perekonomian Spanyol akan menyusut 1,7% tahun ini, yang menyamakan pandangan dari International Monetary Fund.

Maka sebagai perekonomian terbesar keempat di euro zone, resiko sekecil apapun juga dari sebuah kegagalan bayar atau sebuah bailout akan mempunyai dampak yang jauh lebih besar untuk Uni Eropa ketimbang Yunani!  Grant Williams, portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management, pun berpikir demikian:

“I have said it before, I will say it again; Greece is finished as a member of the EU.  I thought the coup de grace would be applied before March 20th (and it might yet prove too much to get the necessary approvals in time which could mean all bets are off once again before the deadline), but either way, they are done.  Out.  Finished.  It is purely a matter of how and when and I rather suspect the answers to those two questions are likely to be ‘badly’ and ‘soon’.  Once the problem of Greece has finally been dealt with by Europe, it’ll be a question of ‘who’s got next?’ and, while the answer to that is most likely Portugal, in terms of when it happens, Europe’s new problem child is set to be the country with great weather, the world’s best soccer team, a busted banking system, spiraling unemployment and tapas.”

Lalu Greg Weldon pada www.weldononline.com, yang menggali tingkat pengangguran Spanyol dari bulan lalu, mengungkapkan penemuan mencekam berikut ini:

“Spain’s January Unemployment data was of GREAT interest, revealing the THIRD LARGEST EVER single-month expansion in the Number of Unemployed, pegged at +177,470 … which represents a MASSIVE monthly rise equal to +4.0% … and … a sizable +35.6% yr-yr increase!!!”

“For reference, a ‘population-equivalent’ rise in US unemployment would be akin to a 1.2 million single month LOSS in Non- Farm Payrolls.”

“Already at a MULTI-DECADE HIGH as of the last report, for the 4Q (revealing a 22.8% rate, which violated the previous high of 22.5% set in 1994) … the gain in January implies a rise of one-full percentage point, which would put the Unemployment Rate at a newer new high of 23.8%, as evidenced in the chart on display [above].”

Kemudian Grant Williams melanjutkan seruannya kembali dengan suatu prediksi untuk situasi di Spanyol selama musim panas mendatang:

“With 50% of Spain’s under-25s out of work (a situation that won’t improve for years), stifling austerity measures in place that, in order to meet EU debt limits, will ensure that the chance of generating any growth in the Spanish economy becomes about as likely as Kim Kardashian refusing to pose for a photograph, it is obvious that it’s only a matter of time before Spain becomes the new Greece.  Like Greece, the trouble will really begin with public sector strikes, followed by social unrest as the Summer heat hits Southern Europe and end with politician pandering to angry demands for an exit from Europe and upheaval.”

“Spain is going to be the country on the front pages this summer so best get yourselves acquainted with the problems facing it.  If it saves you any time, they are by and large similar to those faced by Greece – only much, much larger.  Lather.  Rinse.  Repeat.”

Dan … pada akhirnya Mike Shedlock menyimpulkan dengan cemerlang apa yang kemungkinan akan terjadi dalam jangka menengah-panjang: “… Spanish banks continue to plow into leveraged debt on their own bonds, with Spanish unemployment over 23%, with youth unemployment of 49%, with widening regional debt problems, with massive unrecognized housing sector losses, and with more austerity measures coming that will exacerbate all of the previously mentioned problems!”

“This Ponzi scheme cannot last, which means it won’t.  Spain will implode.  Indeed, it’s a wonder it hasn’t already.”

Babak kedua belum dimulai

“Far from being the end of this eurozone debt crisis, or even the beginning of the end, Friday’s debt-swap was probably just the end of the beginning.”

-Liam Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management-

Apabila kita membandingkan krisis kredit di Eropa dengan pertandingan sepakbola, babak pertama berlangsung selama 2007-08 sedangkan babak kedua kemungkinan akan dimulai pada semester kedua tahun ini dan berakhir di tahun berikutnya ataupun 2014.  Sebuah negara kecil seperti Yunani saja bisa menggoncang bursa saham dunia, jadi coba bayangkan seberapa besar dampaknya jika salah satu negara besar – Spanyol, Prancis, Inggris, Jepang atau Amerika Serikat – tiba-tiba menghadapi masalah yang rumit.

Itupun yang disampaikan oleh Dirk Steinhoff dalam kutipan berikut ini:

“Don’t you find it astonishing how Greece, a country with a population of approximately 11 million and a GDP that makes up less than 2% of the GDP of the entire European Union – a GDP that is only twice as much as that of the city of Berlin – has been able to keep the world for more than two years on a tether?  If the relatively small country of Greece makes these kind of waves, can you imagine what would happen if another European country would have similar problems – maybe the likes of a Spain, Italy, or even France – where shares are closer to 10-15% of the GDP of the European Union?  Or how about a country like the US, where GDP is close to that of the GDP of the entire European Union?”

Bahkan The Economic Collapse Blog menyerukan bahwa ini hanya awal dari krisis kredit yang berkepanjangan, dan saya khawatir harus setuju dengan pandangan tersebut: “… now that Greece has gotten a sweet “haircut” from private investors, politicians in Portugal, Italy, Spain and other European nations are going to wonder why they shouldn’t get some “debt  forgiveness” too.  Also, privateinvestors are almost certainly going to be less likely to want to loan money to European nations from now on.  If they will be required to take massive haircuts at some point, when why in the world would they  want to lend huge amounts of money to European governments at super low interest rates?  It simply does not make sense. Now that Greece has defaulted, the whole game is going to change. This is just the beginning.”

Maka saya ingin memanfaatkan kesempatan ini sekali lagi untuk mengingatkan investor dan/atau traders agar tetap waspada terhadap koreksi yang mendadak di bursa saham dunia maupun berbagai mata uang asing, terutama euro, pound sterling dan Aussie dollar.

Semoga sukses dan sehat selalu!

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Apakah Anda sudah menyiapkan ”senjata” emas?

March 13th, 2012 No comments

Seperti telah saya tulis pada artikel terakhir mengenai emas yang berjudul “Apakah koreksi di pasar emas sudah selesai?”, saya memperkirakan koreksinya belum selesai sepenuhnya, dan pasar emas masih akan turun sekali lagi sebelum membentuk harga lebih rendah yang dapat bertahan.  Apabila kita meneliti grafik harian dibawah ini, jelas terlihat bahwa gelombang jual kelima (dan kemungkinan besar yang terakhir) telah dimulai sejak tanggal 29 Februari yang lalu, ketika harga emas terkoreksi sekitar $100/toz dalam sehari.

Adapun beberapa hal yang menarik pada daily chart tersebut:

  • Setelah support dari wave keempat ditembus kebawah, koreksi emas mengalami akselerasi dan turun dengan cepat;
  • Pelaku pasar sebetulnya telah memperoleh peringatan dini atas pelemahan itu dalam bentuk bearish divergence di Relative Strength Index, dimana harga emas masih berlanjut naik dalam bulan Februari tetapi indikator teknikal tidak mampu untuk mengikutinya;
  • Pasar emas selama ini belum berhasil memecahkan pola dengan lower lows ($1,534.49/toz dan $1,521.94/toz) maupun lower highs ($1,920.30/toz, $1,802.60/toz dan $1,791.49/toz), meskipun rally dari akhir tahun 2011 kuat sekali.  Maka dengan demikian, secara teknikal pasar emas tetap berada dalam sebuah DOWNTREND.

 

Kondisi bursa saham AS mengkhawatirkan

“You are seeing gold take out some short-term technical support levels. I guess the next one of significance is at $1,650.  If gold were to take $1,650 out, that would get more of the hedge funds and the algorithm traders shorting. I have said this before but every time this happens, and it’s been going on for 11+ years, buy the weakness.  That’s all you do here and don’t worry about it because the fundamentals for gold have gotten better with each passing day. As we are doing this interview, the Dow and gold are trading down exactly the same in terms of percentages.  If the Dow is going to head lower, they will knock gold down initially.  They will not let gold be seen as the alternative when the Dow runs into difficulty, at least initially.  Eventually gold will come to the forefront, but in the early stages we are going to have to endure this. What I’m most concerned about is the big picture for everything because I think conditions are deteriorating at an alarming rate. All of this is being obscured by bogus statistics, hype and mainstream promotion. I don’t believe anything has gotten better and the fact is this will manifest itself in most markets, which will be hurt by the action, whereas gold and silver will be the ultimate  beneficiaries.  But in the short-term you have to go through a little pain and I think that’s exactly where we are.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management-

Belakangan ini, hubungan antara berbagai aset sangat erat.  Misalnya saham, emas dan juga kebanyakan mata uang utama terhadap dolar AS selama beberapa bulan terakhir pada umumnya bergerak kearah yang sama.

Oleh karena itu bursa saham AS, yang selama ini masih berlaku sebagai benchmark untuk bursa saham lainnya, patut diperhatikan oleh investor di pasar emas.  Soalnya kini S&P 500 ibaratnya berada di ujung tanduk, yang ditunjukkan oleh grafik harian dibawah ini.

Sejak awal bulan Oktober 2011, indeks saham yang terdiri dari 500 perusahaan terbesar di Amerika Serikat membentuk sebuah rising wedge yang makin hari makin menyempit.  Pola ini pada umumnya bearish, maka penetrasi support yang sekarang terletak di sekitar 1310 perlu diwaspadai dengan seksama.

Selain itu, suatu bearish divergence di Relative Strength Index mengancam kelanjutan penguatan bursa saham AS.  Lagipula MACD atau Moving Average Convergence-Divergence juga telah memulai penurunannya jadi probabilitas cukup besar bahwa indeks S&P 500 akan terkoreksi dalam waktu dekat.

US dollar makin perkasa

“For a decade I have been urging my subscribers to move into gold – either physical bullion or otherwise. Now I am at it again PLEASE MOVE INTO GOLD. Those who think gold has lapsed into a bear market simply do not know what they are talking about. Gold has simply been correcting in an on-going bull market. This is a time when almost every central bank in the world is grinding out paper currency, grinding it out by the car-load. This is a time when people are searching for safety. People are frightened and confused. Where is the land of safety? There is only one safe asset on the planet: that safe asset is gold. Uninformed people believe gold is just a commodity. Wrong, gold is absolute money. Gold alone is the world’s only completely safe currency. Gold has no counter-party against it, and no central bank has ever found a way to create gold. Almost every nation on earth has indulged in the same kind of fiscal madness. To cover the insane spending, nations have had to create an almost endless amount of fiat currency. This avalanche of “money” has steadily reduced the buying power of almost every currency. The result is that it takes increasingly more paper currency to buy one ounce of real money – gold. Gold may now be ending its latest correction. If I am correct in this, gold is in a buying zone.”

-Richard Russell, 87-year old writer of the Dow Theory Letters-

Disamping bursa saham AS yang bisa merosot setiap saat, faktor kedua yang sangat mempengaruhi pergerakan harga emas adalah nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama di dunia.  Hingga kini korelasi antara emas dan US dollar tetap negatif, artinya jika dolar AS menguat emas cenderung tertekan dan sebaliknya.

Coba kita melihat daily chart dari US dollar index dibawah ini terlebih dahulu agar tidak ada keraguan mengenai arah pergerakan selanjutnya, baik dari US dollar dan harga emas.  Ternyata struktur ataupun pola dari indeks dolar AS terpampang dengan jelas dan mudah sekali untuk diterangkan.

Setelah US dollar index menyelesaikan impulsive wave dari 74.724 hingga 81.784 dan corrective wave sampai 78.095, dolar AS kembali menguat terhadap kebanyakan mata uang lainnya.  Sinyal awalnya untuk kebangkitan US dollar pada bulan Februari sudah diberikan oleh bullish divergence di MACD lines, dan selanjutnya diperkuat oleh sebuah key reversal day (dimana indeks dolar AS mencetak level terendah barunya dalam wave C tapi berhasil ditutup di atas level penutupan sehari sebelumnya).  Apalagi candle tersebut membentuk sebuah bullish engulfing, jadi pola pembalikan sungguh kuat.

Sekali bursa saham melemah secara signifikan, suatu rally di US dollar index akan berkembang menuju level tertinggi dari impulsive wave sebelumnya di 81.784, dan kemungkinan membukukan new 52 week highs.  Itu seharusnya pada gilirannya menekan harga emas, yang dapat terkoreksi lagi ke zona support di antara $1,525/toz dan $1,550/toz.

Skenario dalam jangka pendek

“Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, … may as well induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper.”

-“Bond King” Bill Gross-

4-hourly chart dari emas dibawah ini menggambarkan kondisi pasar pada saat ini.  Seperti dapat Anda lihat wave (1) dan (2) kemungkinan telah selesai, dan kita sekarang akan menyaksikan subwaves 1 hingga 5 dari wave (3) dalam beberapa hari kedepan.

Apabila perhitungan dari Elliott Wave ini tidak salah, kita seharusnya segera membentuk subwave 3 dari wave (3), yang pada umumnya paling besar dan paling panjang.  Maka waspadailah koreksi yang cukup tajam (kira-kira $75/toz hingga $125/toz) dalam waktu dekat, yang mungkin juga akan didukung oleh RSI yang overbought maupun perpotongan MACD lines ke bawah.

Apakah Iran akan diserang?

“Gold is the logical choice and the next step in the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.  There’s a lot of demand for the dollar to buy and sell oil.  If countries stop using it, demand for the dollar would fall, at the very time the US is greatly increasing the supply of dollars. The day is coming then trillions of dollars outside the US will only be spendable inside the US.  At that point it’s game over for the dollar.”

-Doug Casey-

Perseteruan antara Iran di satu sisi dan Israel maupun Amerika Serikat di sisi lain hangat dibicarakan belakangan ini.  Jika resikonya secara geopolitics makin meningkat kedepan dan sebuah perang tidak dapat dihindarkan, seharusnya logam mulia diburu oleh investor sebagai sebuah safe haven yang memberikan perlindungan ketika pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia terancam turun.

Marc Faber, yang menerbitkan the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, pun memperingati investor dan mengatakan hal berikut ini pada sebuah investment conference:

“Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now.  I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran – it’s almost inevitable.”

“Say war breaks out in the Middle East or anywhere else, (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman) Mr. Bernanke will just print even more money – they have no option … they haven’t got the money to finance a war.”

Tentunya ketegangan di Timur Tengah pada akhirnya akan mendorong harga minyak naik, dan menyebabkan tingkat inflasi maupun harga emas cenderung melonjak (lihat grafik diatas ini).  Hal tersebut diuraikan dengan cemerlang oleh James Turk dari GoldMoney, jadi kita sebaiknya tidak mengabaikan apa yang disampaikan olehnya:

“There have been three phases: the first, when OPEC jacked up the price of oil; the second when more expensive non-OPEC fields came on stream putting a cap on prices, and finally the third, where prices have increased seven times so far.  It is this third trend, from which there is no apparent escape.  The chart is on a logarithmic scale, which means that prices have been rising at an exponential rate since 1998.”

“With the production/consumption imbalance set to deteriorate further, there can be only one result, and that is considerably higher prices.  And with quantitative easing in the markets there will be extra money to pay higher prices, the consequences for global price inflation do not bear thinking about.”

“Living with an energy supply crisis will require a radical change in our lifestyles – downwards.  The best financial protection from this event appears to be physical gold, which has tracked the price of oil reasonably well over the years as shown in the chart, and can be expected to continue to do so.  After all, the combination of the most rapid global monetary expansion in peace-time history and soaring oil prices is an inflationary disaster in the making.

QE atau tidak?

“If something goes awry in Europe that could easily lead to a sharp and very big selloff in gold, just as was the case in 2008.  People sold gold because they needed liquidity.  Gold went down sharply and then it just zoomed (higher).  It was like a rocket ship on the way back. If it happens it will be temporary and you should buy all you can possibly buy because if you think we are flooding the world with money now, wait until you see what happens if Europe really starts teetering. They will literally, as Bernanke once said, they will be dropping it (money) from helicopters.”

-Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management-

Meskipun Ben Bernanke baru saja mengatakan didepan anggota Kongres AS bahwa ia tidak akan menambah QE atau Quantitative Easing dalam waktu dekat dan Yunani telah berhasil melakukan bond swap dengan mayoritas kreditur swasta, saya secara pribadi tetap khawatir akan dua hal:

  1. Perekonomian Eropa kemungkinan besar akan mengalami resesi dalam semester pertama ini.  Sebagai akibatnya, ekonomi AS maupun Cina pun diperkirakan akan melambat, dan pada gilirannya menyebabkan bursa saham dunia merosot lagi;
  2. Apapun yang terjadi, Yunani tetap akan bangkrut dalam beberapa bulan kedepan!  Mengapa demikian?  Karena negara inti di Eropa mulai enggan untuk memberikan dana talangan secara terus-menerus, dan masyarakat di Yunani sudah jenuh dengan program penghematan yang dipaksakan oleh Uni Eropa.  Maka jangan heran apabila tiba-tiba ada sebuah pengumuman yang menyerukan bahwa Yunani telah memutuskan untuk meninggalkan penggunaan euro dan beralih kembali ke drachma …

Bahkan tidak semua anggota the Fed setuju dengan Bernanke mengenai kebutuhan akan stimulus tambahan.  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams misalnya mengatakan the Fed sebaiknya melanjutkan suatu “extraordinary supportive policy” atau kebijakan moneter yang sangat mendukung untuk mengurangi tingkat pengangguran yang kemungkinan akan melampaui 7% selama beberapa tahun mendatang.  Lalu ia juga menambahkan: “This is clearly a situation in which we have to keep applying monetary policy stimulus rigorously.  Looking ahead, we may need to do more if the recovery falters or if inflation stays well below 2%.”

Jadi dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang kedepan, performa emas diperkirakan masih akan cenderung menguat seiring ekspektasi bahwa ECB dan the Fed akan melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneternya untuk menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi.  Dengan meningkatnya jumlah uang yang dicetak oleh bank sentral, maka investor cenderung akan lebih memilih emas sebagai mekanisme lindung nilai terhadap merosotnya nilai investasi pada uang kertas dan portofolio investasi lainnya.

Dan … hanya sebagai tambahan saja, bank sentral di Amerika Serikat telah membeli hutang perumahan (KPR) maupun pemerintah senilai $2.3 trilliun selama dua putaran quantitative easing dari Desember 2008 hingga Juni 2011, yang memacu suatu lonjakan dalam harga emas sebesar 70%.  Maka coba bayangkan apa yang akan terjadi apabila QE3 ternyata terwujud …

Proyeksi Elliott Wave untuk harga emas

“… the physical stock of gold hasn’t changed.  All that’s changing is the fundamental cheapness of the metals vis a vis the paper they are priced in. If you go back and look at the Bretton Woods model of valuing money, they would take monetary base and divide it by official gold holdings. They came up with a price of $35 which they tried to maintain. If you were to do that today, you would find that price would be around $10,000.  That’s obviously because since 2008 the Fed has increased base money about 215% to $2.7 trillion.  I think more than anything that qualifies the magnitude of potential change in the gold price. We think base money in the US is going to rise from about $2.7 trillion to $15 trillion to $17 trillion.  All we know is before it’s through, the price (of gold) is going to be significantly higher than where it is today.”

-Paul Brodsky, QB Asset Management Company-

Grafik berikut ini dari Nick Laird di www.sharelynx.com pasti akan membuat semua pecinta emas “ngiler” sehubungan target yang ditetapkan menggiurkan sekali.  Garis biru dengan dua gelombang pertama naik adalah pergerakan emas hingga kini, sementara garis merah adalah estimasi harga emas berdasarkan dua gelombang naik yang telah selesai dibentuk.

Dengan kata lain, grafik tersebut memperlihatkan peta jalan dari emas di masa yang akan datang.  Nick sendiri menyebutnya “… chart pornthe best chart I’ve ever done on gold.  This to me as a T/A (technical analyst) is a Picasso or Rembrandt – it is a work of art.  What’s more, watch this chart every month for the next 16 months and we should hit W4(B) (see position on chart) by June 2013.  If that happens then watch out.”

Saya harus mengakui sepenuhnya setuju dengannya, dan seharusnya setiap investor di pasar emas menyimpan chart ini dengan baik.  Namun selalu ingat juga bahwa Elliott Wave itu tidak sempurna, jadi gunakan ini hanya sebagai sebuah peta kasar yang dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu berkaitan dengan kondisi perekonomian yang sangat dinamis.

Kesimpulan

“To me, it all seems crystal clear at this point.  To avert a near-term economic and financial implosion the authorities throughout the developed world will have to hold their noses and stimulate to whatever degree necessary. No politician today wants to see the system collapse on his watch, so the world will risk eventual hyperinflation and a collapse of the present currency regime rather than voluntarily accept a debt deflation. Given that this credit cycle has dwarfed anything seen in the history of mankind, its resolution is going to be something to behold. Global Financial Crisis No. 1 in 2008 was merely the hors d’oeuvre and we are now awaiting the main course. I envision something along the lines of a hyperinflationary depression accompanied by the final denouement of the latest experiment with pure fiat currency – that is, the worst of all worlds. In the event that I am right, I can assure you that the demand for physical gold and silver is going to overrun all possible sources of supply and even the most outrageously bullish price projections for gold and silver may be exceeded.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management-

Dalam jangka pendek (2 hingga 5 pekan kedepan) emas kemungkinan besar masih akan cenderung tertekan menyusul penguatan US dollar maupun pelemahan bursa saham dunia dan komoditas secara umum.  Menurut hemat saya, koreksi harga emas belum selesai sepenuhnya jadi kita sebaiknya membuka posisi jual untuk sementara waktu ataupun menahan diri apabila ingin membeli emas.

Salah satu skenario yang saya sedang mengamati adalah kemungkinan terbentuknya sebuah inverted head-and-shoulders, seperti dapat Anda lihat pada weekly chart diatas ini.  Apabila penurunan kedepan misalnya tertahan di zona support antara $1,550/toz hingga $1,580/toz, bukan tidak mungkin right shoulder atau bahu kanan akan terbentuk.

Lalu jika pada akhirnya harga emas selanjutnya naik lagi dan memecahkan neckline atau garis leher di sekitar $1,770/toz, target penguatan di semester kedua adalah $2,050/toz.  Tetapi sekali lagi perlu saya tekankan bahwa itu secara garis besar akan tergantung pada jumlah uang yang akan dicetak oleh berbagai bank sentral maupun (in)stabilitas di Timur Tengah.

Pada akhirnya saya sangat bullish terhadap emas (dan juga perak) dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang, tetapi dalam jangka pendek emas mungkin akan berkonsolidasi terlebih dahulu sebelum memecahkan resistance dan mencetak level tertinggi terbaru.

Maka jangan lupa untuk buy gold on the dips atau membeli emas pada waktu terkoreksi secara signifikan karena ketika pencetakan uang dimulai kembali, emas tetap merupakan salah satu aset terbaik untuk melindungi kekayaan Anda apabila tingkat inflasi tidak terbendung lagi!

Memang tidak ada yang pasti di hidup kita – kecuali membayar pajak setiap tahun dan meninggal dunia – namun sampai real interest rates positif lagi, krisis hutang di Eropa bisa diatasi dengan baik, dan defisit anggaran di negara maju dikurangi maupun nilai mata uang utama dipertahankan sesungguhnya, saya tetap akan membeli emas sebagai sebuah inflation hedge, safe haven dan alat diversifikasi untuk portofolio saya.  Bagaimana dengan Anda?

Selamat berinvestasi dan/atau bertransaksi di pasar emas, dan semoga sukses dan sehat selalu!

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