Home > Pasar Internasional > Apakah ledakan gelembung hutang akan segera terdengar (Part 2)?

Apakah ledakan gelembung hutang akan segera terdengar (Part 2)?

“Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces.”

-Sigmund Freud-

Belakangan ini, banyak pelaku pasar mulai berpuas hati atau complacent lagi setelah Yunani memperoleh pemangkasan hutang maupun bailout kedua.  Namun saya secara pribadi masih berpendapat bahwa Yunani pada akhirnya akan menuju “ajalnya”, dan bantuan kemarin hanya mengulur waktu saja.

 

Deal or no deal, Yunani tetap akan bangkrut

“The Greek deal is a sham.  It’s designed to make everybody feel better.  This Greece deal is only designed to get us through the French election and the American election and the German election.”

-Jim Rogers-

Ternyata beberapa analis lainnya pun berpikiran demikian.  Intinya adalah bahwa selama Yunani berada di Uni Eropa dan memakai euro sebagai mata uangnya, negara tersebut tidak akan bangkit!

John Mauldin, dalam Thoughts from the FRONTLINE, barangkali dapat menggambarkan kondisi perekonomian terkini di Yunani dengan sangat jelas:

“Greece is having an “orderly” default.  The taxpayers of Europe are in theory going to lend €130 billion to Greece to pay back €100 billion in Greek debt that is owed to private lenders.  Greece has to pass several difficult tests in order to get the money.  €100 billion of debt to private lenders will be written off.  Thus the net effect will be that they owe €30 billion more.  How does this help Greece, except that they get €30 billion more they cannot pay?”

“The “new” debt is already trading in the market, even though it has not actually been issued.  (Don’t bother traders with messy details, just do the deal.)  This page from Bloomberg is just too delicious not to print, sent to me courtesy of Dan Greenhaus of BTIG.  It shows the new Greek bonds trading at over a 71-79% discount, depending on the length of maturity.  Note this is AFTER the 53% haircut already imposed.  That reads to me like the market value of original Greek debt is now between 12 and 14% of the original face value.”

Greece itself is in free fall.  The “benefits” of austerity have not become apparent, as the Greek economy saw growth rates of -0.2% in 2008, -3.3% in 2009, -3.4% in 2010, -6.9% in 2011, and …?  The 4th quarter of last year saw a GDP fall of 7.5%.  Do you see a trend here?  The Greek economy is down by almost one-fifth in less than five years.  Unemployment has risen to 20%, and 50% among young people, many of whom are leaving the country.  Resentment has grown among ordinary Greeks over the austerity medicine ordered by international creditors, which has compounded the pain.  Greek papers are full of stories blaming Germany for their problems.”

“By any standard, what will soon be a 20% drop can be classified as a depression.  There is nothing on the horizon to suggest things will turn around any time soon.  The country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 160% of nominal gross domestic product, AFTER the debt restructuring.  If Greece can find someone to lend them more money, it will only get worse.”

“The current agreement with the EU will not improve the economy, but require even more wage cuts, government spending cuts, and higher taxes and unemployment.  The problem is that if Greece leaves the euro, those problems do not go away, they just take a different form.  There is still a great deal of economic pain for Greece as a consequence of past decisions.  It is sad, but there is no other choice, unless the rest of Europe or the world, through the IMF, simply gives Greece all the money they want.  But then where do you stop?”

Selain itu, pembuat kebijakan di Jerman juga tidak begitu optimis mengenai daya tahan Yunani pada masa mendatang.  Sebagai buktinya, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich dalam sebuah wawancara dengan majalah berita Der Spiegel mengatakan:

“I do not mean that Greece should be kicked out of the 17-nation eurozone, but to create incentives for an exit that they cannot turn down.  Outside the European monetary union Greece’s chances of regenerating itself and become competitive are definitely bigger than if it remained inside the eurozone.”

 

Kemudian the conservative Die Welt menambahkan: “As long as the Greeks remain in the euro zone, they will never become competitive.  All the assistance that is based on the illusion that Greece can make it while remaining part of the euro area is doomed to fizzle out without having any effect.  The longer it takes for political leaders in Berlin, Brussels and Athens to accepts this reality, the more expensive it will be for the citizens of their countries.  Greece will be better off if it abandons the euro – and the euro zone will be better off without Greece.”

Bahkan pemuka agama merasa terpanggil untuk memberikan pendapatnya.  Misalnya dalam sebuah surat yang ditujukkan untuk Perdana Menteri Yunani, Archbishop of Athens and All Greece Ieronymos menyampaikan:

“Homelessness and even hunger – phenomena seen during the [Second World] war – have reached nightmare levels …  A sense of patience among Greeks is running out, giving way to a sense of anger, and the danger of a social explosion can no longer be ignored.”

“… We must all understand the feeling of insecurity, desperation and depression in every Greek home.  This, unfortunately, is continuing to cause suicide among those who can no longer stand the drama in their family and the suffering of their children.  …  We are being asked to take even larger doses of a medicine that has proven to be deadly and to undertake commitments that do not solve the problem, but only temporarily postpone the foretold death of our economy …  And what is likely to follow are more painful, more unjust measures in the same hopeless and unsuccessful course of our recent past.”

Secara sederhana Yunani tidak mungkin mampu dan tidak pernah akan menjadi kompetitif sebagai bagian dari suatu currency union dengan Jerman.  Artinya Yunani akan membutuhkan dana bantuan terus-menerus dan kehilangan kemandiriannya secara fiskal dalam waktu yang panjang.  Tetapi kemauan politis yang diperlukan untuk mendukung solusi ini tidak ada, maka Yunani pada akhirnya dapat dipastikan akan keluar dari the euro zone.

Lalu Grant Williams dari Vulpes Investment Management menyimpulkannya seperti berikut ini:

“Tomorrow MAY bring a ‘solution’ to the Greek problem but, mark my words, it will NOT last.  Greece is done as a member of the EU.  At best, the latest austerity measures are SUPPOSED to get Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio down to 120% (which, incidentally, is where Italy currently stands – and Italy has a real economy).  That cannot be sustained and, as Herbert Stein’s Law so beautifully states: If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.  The bailing out of Greece cannot go on forever.  It will stop.”

The plain truth is this:

  • Greece cannot pay its current debts back.  Ever.
  • More money is NOT the answer.
  • Greece cannot even begin to recover while still chained to the Euro and unable to devalue.
  • Greek citizens will NOT suddenly decide to pay their taxes.
  • Greece’s exit from the EU will be incredibly painful and the country will likely go into a depression.”

“But:

  • Greece is NOT the first country to default (just the first in the EU)
  • Greece WILL be able to get back on its feet eventually through devaluation
  • The sooner this process starts, the sooner it finishes – look at Iceland”

Dan … Variant Perception terakhirnya menekankan bahwa sebuah kebangkrutan dari Yunani sebetulnya tidak terlalu perlu dikhawatirkan karena sebelumnya banyak negara telah mengalami nasib serupa:

“Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas with little downward economic volatility.  The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible, and historical examples provide a roadmap for exit.  The real problem in Europe is that EU peripheral countries face severe, unsustainable imbalances in real effective exchange rates and external debt levels that are higher than most previous emerging market crises.

Orderly defaults and debt rescheduling coupled with devaluations are inevitable and even desirable.  Exiting from the euro and devaluation would accelerate insolvencies, but would provide a powerful policy tool via flexible exchange rates.  The European periphery could then grow again quickly with deleveraged balance sheets and more competitive exchange rates, much like many emerging markets after recent defaults and devaluations (Asia 1997, Russia 1998, and Argentina 2002).”

Spanyol merupakan ancaman yang lebih besar ketimbang Yunani

“There is no question that the whole Greek situation is hopeless. Central planners can paper it over in the short-run and say what they want, but the Greek economy is destroyed. Ultimately, I think there is no choice but to leave the euro and reintroduce the drachma. That will be extremely disruptive, but I don’t see another outcome unless the Germans and the rest of the Northern Europeans are prepared to carry these guys and I don’t think that’s going to be the case. There is absolutely a danger of contagion.  Take Spain as an example, it’s a great country and I like Spain immensely, but I don’t like their financial positions or their employment situation. When you’ve got 50% of your 16 to 25 year old males unemployed, your economy is contracting and your Prime Minister comes out and says, ‘We can’t possibly meet the budget requirements the European Union is putting on us,’ that tells you everything you need to know. Contagion is a major risk.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management-

Negara yang paling perlu diperhatikan dalam 6 bulan kedepan, selain Portugal dan Irlandia yang kemungkinan (besar) akan membutuhkan dana penyelamatan tambahan, adalah Spanyol.  Mengapa demikian?

Adapun beberapa faktor yang dapat menyebabkan “kejatuhan Spanyol kedalam jurang kenistaan”:

  1. Negara ini mempunyai tingkat pengangguran yang tertingginya di euro zone, yaitu lebih dari 23%.  Dengan jumlah penganggur yang meningkat hingga 4,7 juta pada bulan Februari, Spanyol berkontribusi hampir sepertiga dari semua orang yang tanpa pekerjaan di Uni Eropa.
  2. Spanyol juga sedang bergelut dengan dampak dari housing bubble yang pecah secara dramatis selama krisis kredit, dan mengakibatkan banyak masalah untuk sistem perbankannya.
  3. Defisit anggaran Spanyol untuk 2011 jauh lebih buruk dari perkiraannya yakni 8,5%, atau 2,5 persen lebih tinggi daripada yang direncanakan.  Selanjutnya pemerintah baru saja mengumumkan bahwa perekonomian Spanyol akan menyusut 1,7% tahun ini, yang menyamakan pandangan dari International Monetary Fund.

Maka sebagai perekonomian terbesar keempat di euro zone, resiko sekecil apapun juga dari sebuah kegagalan bayar atau sebuah bailout akan mempunyai dampak yang jauh lebih besar untuk Uni Eropa ketimbang Yunani!  Grant Williams, portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management, pun berpikir demikian:

“I have said it before, I will say it again; Greece is finished as a member of the EU.  I thought the coup de grace would be applied before March 20th (and it might yet prove too much to get the necessary approvals in time which could mean all bets are off once again before the deadline), but either way, they are done.  Out.  Finished.  It is purely a matter of how and when and I rather suspect the answers to those two questions are likely to be ‘badly’ and ‘soon’.  Once the problem of Greece has finally been dealt with by Europe, it’ll be a question of ‘who’s got next?’ and, while the answer to that is most likely Portugal, in terms of when it happens, Europe’s new problem child is set to be the country with great weather, the world’s best soccer team, a busted banking system, spiraling unemployment and tapas.”

Lalu Greg Weldon pada www.weldononline.com, yang menggali tingkat pengangguran Spanyol dari bulan lalu, mengungkapkan penemuan mencekam berikut ini:

“Spain’s January Unemployment data was of GREAT interest, revealing the THIRD LARGEST EVER single-month expansion in the Number of Unemployed, pegged at +177,470 … which represents a MASSIVE monthly rise equal to +4.0% … and … a sizable +35.6% yr-yr increase!!!”

“For reference, a ‘population-equivalent’ rise in US unemployment would be akin to a 1.2 million single month LOSS in Non- Farm Payrolls.”

“Already at a MULTI-DECADE HIGH as of the last report, for the 4Q (revealing a 22.8% rate, which violated the previous high of 22.5% set in 1994) … the gain in January implies a rise of one-full percentage point, which would put the Unemployment Rate at a newer new high of 23.8%, as evidenced in the chart on display [above].”

Kemudian Grant Williams melanjutkan seruannya kembali dengan suatu prediksi untuk situasi di Spanyol selama musim panas mendatang:

“With 50% of Spain’s under-25s out of work (a situation that won’t improve for years), stifling austerity measures in place that, in order to meet EU debt limits, will ensure that the chance of generating any growth in the Spanish economy becomes about as likely as Kim Kardashian refusing to pose for a photograph, it is obvious that it’s only a matter of time before Spain becomes the new Greece.  Like Greece, the trouble will really begin with public sector strikes, followed by social unrest as the Summer heat hits Southern Europe and end with politician pandering to angry demands for an exit from Europe and upheaval.”

“Spain is going to be the country on the front pages this summer so best get yourselves acquainted with the problems facing it.  If it saves you any time, they are by and large similar to those faced by Greece – only much, much larger.  Lather.  Rinse.  Repeat.”

Dan … pada akhirnya Mike Shedlock menyimpulkan dengan cemerlang apa yang kemungkinan akan terjadi dalam jangka menengah-panjang: “… Spanish banks continue to plow into leveraged debt on their own bonds, with Spanish unemployment over 23%, with youth unemployment of 49%, with widening regional debt problems, with massive unrecognized housing sector losses, and with more austerity measures coming that will exacerbate all of the previously mentioned problems!”

“This Ponzi scheme cannot last, which means it won’t.  Spain will implode.  Indeed, it’s a wonder it hasn’t already.”

Babak kedua belum dimulai

“Far from being the end of this eurozone debt crisis, or even the beginning of the end, Friday’s debt-swap was probably just the end of the beginning.”

-Liam Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management-

Apabila kita membandingkan krisis kredit di Eropa dengan pertandingan sepakbola, babak pertama berlangsung selama 2007-08 sedangkan babak kedua kemungkinan akan dimulai pada semester kedua tahun ini dan berakhir di tahun berikutnya ataupun 2014.  Sebuah negara kecil seperti Yunani saja bisa menggoncang bursa saham dunia, jadi coba bayangkan seberapa besar dampaknya jika salah satu negara besar – Spanyol, Prancis, Inggris, Jepang atau Amerika Serikat – tiba-tiba menghadapi masalah yang rumit.

Itupun yang disampaikan oleh Dirk Steinhoff dalam kutipan berikut ini:

“Don’t you find it astonishing how Greece, a country with a population of approximately 11 million and a GDP that makes up less than 2% of the GDP of the entire European Union – a GDP that is only twice as much as that of the city of Berlin – has been able to keep the world for more than two years on a tether?  If the relatively small country of Greece makes these kind of waves, can you imagine what would happen if another European country would have similar problems – maybe the likes of a Spain, Italy, or even France – where shares are closer to 10-15% of the GDP of the European Union?  Or how about a country like the US, where GDP is close to that of the GDP of the entire European Union?”

Bahkan The Economic Collapse Blog menyerukan bahwa ini hanya awal dari krisis kredit yang berkepanjangan, dan saya khawatir harus setuju dengan pandangan tersebut: “… now that Greece has gotten a sweet “haircut” from private investors, politicians in Portugal, Italy, Spain and other European nations are going to wonder why they shouldn’t get some “debt  forgiveness” too.  Also, privateinvestors are almost certainly going to be less likely to want to loan money to European nations from now on.  If they will be required to take massive haircuts at some point, when why in the world would they  want to lend huge amounts of money to European governments at super low interest rates?  It simply does not make sense. Now that Greece has defaulted, the whole game is going to change. This is just the beginning.”

Maka saya ingin memanfaatkan kesempatan ini sekali lagi untuk mengingatkan investor dan/atau traders agar tetap waspada terhadap koreksi yang mendadak di bursa saham dunia maupun berbagai mata uang asing, terutama euro, pound sterling dan Aussie dollar.

Semoga sukses dan sehat selalu!

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:
  1. irawan
    March 27th, 2012 at 09:17 | #1

    mengharap bursa Indonesia turun sepertinya memerlukan “kesabaran” luar biasa Pak…

  2. Brocom
    March 27th, 2012 at 09:36 | #2

    Jadi harus bagaimana bro Nico ke depan nya…

  3. Hernawan
    April 5th, 2012 at 05:25 | #3

    Seperti biasanya…. pak Nico Omer menakut-nakuti orang awam / trader & investor pemula…. Kiamat sudah dekat !!

  4. yosef alex
    April 5th, 2012 at 22:56 | #4

    Salah satu analis yang berbobot dalam menganalisis ekonomi secara komperhensive,sangat detail,jelas dan membanggakan.terimakasih Bapak Nico sudah mau membagikan ilmunya,sangat membantu dalam perkembangan portofolio asset lebih baik.Lebih dari itu sikap kehati-hatian bapak yang tak bosan-bosannya mengingatkan adalah suatu kontrol dan manajemen resiko dalam menyikapi setiap peluang yang juga berbalut ancaman.Terima kasih,teruslah berkarya dengan membahas topik analisa yang sangat berbobot,ya Pak.

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