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Investor/Trader Saham Disarankan Untuk Menyiapkan Sabuk Pengaman

April 9th, 2012 2 comments

Setelah S&P 500 membukukan kenaikan sebesar 32% sejak 3 Oktober sekaligus sebuah multi-year closing high di 1419 hari Senin lalu, dan IHSG mencapai level tertinggi baru sepanjang sejarah, banyak orang bertanya apakah saya sekarang sudah menjadi bullish.  Maka saya memutuskan untuk kembali menulis suatu artikel mengenai perkembangan terakhir di bursa Amerika Serikat dan Indonesia, agar dapat menjelaskan arah pergerakan indeks saham secara lebih detil.

Saya yakin Anda akan bisa menjawab sendiri apakah saya masih bearish, berubah menjadi bullish, atau malahan makin bearish sehabis baca uraian berikut ini.  Pertama-tama mari kita melihat daily chart dari S&P 500:

Yang paling menarik dari grafik tersebut adalah RSI atau Relative Strength Index, yang menunjukkan sebuah bearish divergence.  Berarti probabilitas cukup besar bahwa indeks saham AS ini akan mengalami koreksi dalam jangka pendek, dan pada akhirnya mengikuti indikator teknikal.  Selebihnya MACD pun baru saja memberikan suatu sinyal jual, dimana signal line telah memotong kebawah MACD line-nya.

Kemudian grafik bulanan dibawah ini memperlihatkan S&P 500 kemungkinan telah atau dalam waktu dekat akan menyelesaikan Primary wave k, dan memulai Intermediate wave (1) dari Primary wave l.  Sebelumnya saya berasumsi bahwa Primary wave k sudah selesai terbentuk pada kuartal kedua tahun 2011, tetapi karena S&P 500 ternyata melampaui level tertinggi tahun yang lalu, saya terpaksa merevisi hitungan gelombang.

Dengan demikian Primary wave k membentuk sebuah double zig-zag [waves (W), (X) dan (Y)] yang masing-masing terdiri dari Minor waves A, B dan C.  Semua gelombang tersebut dapat dilihat secara lebih jelas pada grafik mingguan berikutnya:

Pendek kata, pasca pembentukan Primary wave j maupun k, kita akan menyaksikan Primary wave l yang pada umumnya paling panjang dan besar.  Oleh karena itu, saya ingin mengingatkan pembaca yang budiman bahwa bursa saham Amerika Serikat barangkali dalam bulan ini akan mencetak level tertingginya untuk tahun ini.  Jadi Anda perlu siap untuk Intermediate wave (1) dari Primary wave l, yang sifatnya korektif.

Lalu apabila Anda mau tahu kapan sebaiknya meningkatkan kewaspadaan terhadap suatu koreksi yang lebih dalam, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence mungkin dapat memberikan jawabannya.  Pada saat ini MACD Histogram sudah memberitahu bahwa uptrend mulai kehilangan momentum-nya, maka kita hanya perlu menunggu penembusan zero line atau garis 0 untuk memperoleh suatu sell signal yang mapan.

Volume perdagangan menyimpang

Dalam sebuah artikel untuk Daily Profit yang berjudul “What’s Next as the First Quarter Comes To An End?”, Rick Pendergraft yang merupakan the Editor dari ETF Master Portfolio mendiskusikan downtrend dalam volume perdagangan dan dampak potensialnya terhadap bursa saham secara umum:

“You can see the downtrend in volume on the chart and you can see what happened after each of these downtrends was broken – the trend in the S&P 500 reversed.  In 2009, the S&P was in a downtrend and reversed sharply higher once the volume trend line was penetrated.  In early 2010, the market was in an uptrend, but suffered a 17% pullback after the volume trend line was broken.  In 2011, the S&P was once again trending higher in the first half of the year while the volume trended lower.  In early July, the volume spiked above the trend line right at the beginning of a 20% pullback in the S&P.”

“Given the way these volume downtrends have signaled reversals in the S&P once they were snapped, I think this is the first reason to exercise caution for the next few months.”

“While I don’t foresee a new long-term bear market, I do see the S&P pulling back to the trend line that connects the 2009 low with the lows from last fall.”

“The rising trend line is currently sitting near the 1,230 mark, but is rising a little each week.  If the market does start pulling back, the trend line could be up near the 1,250 mark by the time the S&P gets down to it.  From the current level of 1,400, that would represent a decline of 11%.  Such a drop would be right in line with the decline we saw in the spring of 2010.  That decline also came after a downtrend in volume was snapped and it came when the VIX was flirting with the 15 level.”

“I’m not suggesting that you should rush out and sell all your stock holdings.  Instead, I recommend that you evaluate your holdings and take some gains or at the very least take steps to protect those gains …”

Psikologi pasar

“A simple question: Is the U.S. stock market a Bubble? Have the Fed and global central bankers prolonged the U.S. Credit Bubble sufficiently to the point of having again incited Bubble dynamics within our equities market?  Sure looks like it.  As we’ve witnessed repeatedly for twenty-odd years now, every government bailout/policy response to a burst Bubble ends up inflating fledgling Bubbles to full-blown Bubble fruition excess.  From my point of view, U.S. stocks were, at the minimum, a “fledgling” Bubble prior to recent LTRO and concerted global central bank liquidity operations.”

-Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin, 23 March 2012-

Dalam bagian ini, saya ingin menampilkan 3 indikator yang menggambarkan Investor Psychology yang terkini, yakni Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), dan Emotional maupun Speculative Intensity.

Global Market Perspective pada tanggal 30 Maret lalu memberikan komentar yang singkat tapi sangat bermanfaat tentang grafik disamping ini: “This week, a 10-day average of Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus rose to 68.4%, which is the highest level of advisor optimism since June 2007, three weeks prior to the all-time high in the Value Line Composite Index and the Dow Jones Composite Index.”

Kemudian Costas Bocelli dari Channel Trading Secrets dalam sebuah artikel yang berjudul “Higher Volatility Coming Sooner Than You Think” menjelaskan mengapa the VIX begitu penting dan apa yang diindikasikan olehnya:

“The stock market rally has been quite resilient… virtually a one-way, low volume ticket to higher prices.”

“Not surprisingly, volatility has gotten absolutely smashed along the way.”

“As measured by the widely followed CBOE volatility index commonly known as the VIX, or the “fear gauge”, it recently put in a five year low.”

“(Extremely low readings in the VIX … infer that investors have become very complacent with regard to risk.  More to the point, these low readings usually coincide with short-term market tops.)”

“So let’s take a look at the VIX.  Like I mentioned, it just hit a multi-year low, briefly dipping below 14.00 this past Tuesday.  Yesterday it closed at 15.31 – a level that is still very indicative of overly complacent investors.”

Lalu Rick Pendergraft menambahkan:

“The VIX recently dropped below the 15 level for the first time since last April.  In fact, the VIX dropped as low as 13.66, the lowest reading since June 2007.”

“The VIX measures volatility in the market, though it is commonly referred to as a fear gauge – when readings are high, volatility is high and investors are more fearful.  And low readings imply lower volatility and less fear.  From a contrarian viewpoint, it’s time to worry when investors are showing little fear.”

“In the two charts below, note how the market performed after the VIX dipped below 15.”

“The VIX dipped below 15 in April 2011, right ahead of a five-month losing streak for the S&P.  The VIX dropped in April 2010, but only got as low as 15.23.  Despite staying above 15, the S&P suffered a drop of almost 200 points from May through early July that year.  Finally, the VIX was below 15 in June 2007, just before the market went into a bearish cycle.”

Terakhir Ty Andros pada www.traderview.com menulis hal berikutnya mengenai sentimen di pasar belakangan ini:

“Most internal measures, especially sentiment and volatility, are HORRID.  Check out these charts courtesy of Alan Newman’s CROSSCURRENTS (http://www.cross-currents.net, I love his work and recommend it highly):”

“Do you see the excess positive sentiment above?  Can you say Mania?”

Kondisi pasar hampir mirip dengan 2011

“… stock markets have become a giant charade.  The indexes don’t communicate useful or accurate information.  Prices have become more influenced by the supply of credit in the system than the underlying earnings of the businesses on listed exchanges.  The whole thing looks suspiciously like a racket designed only to benefit the banks, the brokers, and the bureaucrats who nominally regulate them.”

-Dan Denning, The Daily Reckoning-

Dalam weekly note-nya, fund manager John Hussman bearish terhadap pasar, dan meneliti suatu indikator teknikal yang memperlihatkan tanda dari optimisme yang berlebihan:

“As of Friday (16 March), the S&P 500 was within 1% of its upper Bollinger band at virtually every horizon, including daily, weekly and monthly bands.  The last time the S&P 500 reached a similar extreme was Friday April 29, 2011, when I titled the following Monday’s comment Extreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes.  I observed when the market has previously been overbought to this extent, coupled with more general features of an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome”, the average outcome has been particularly hostile:”

“Examining this set of instances, it’s clear that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndromes as extreme as we observe today are even more important for their extended implications than they are for market prospects over say, 3-6 months.  Though there is a tendency toward abrupt market plunges, the initial market losses in 1972 and 2007 were recovered over a period of several months before second signal emerged, followed by a major market decline.  Despite the variability in short-term outcomes, and even the tendency for the market to advance by several percent after the syndrome emerges, the overall implications are clearly negative on the basis of average return/risk outcomes.”

“As it happened, April 29, 2011 turned out to mark the exact high of the S&P 500 for the year, and was followed by a steep intermediate market plunge.  My impression is that despite the recent run of speculation the market has enjoyed – largely reflecting a reprieve in European debt concerns and what appears to be a drawing-forward of jobs into the first quarter due to unseasonably favorable weather – the extended implications of present market conditions remain decidedly negative.”

“If you examine the components of the S&P 500 individually, you’ll quickly find that the majority of those stocks are also at or through their own upper Bollinger bands.  In overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions, those extensions are often resolved in unison, which is what produces the characteristic “air pocket” where the index can give up weeks or sometimes months of upside progress in a handful of sessions (though we often see a knee-jerk reaction to buy that initial dip before more serious follow-through occurs).”

Selanjutnya Raymond James’ Jeff Saut, yang telah bullish selama dua tahun lebih, sekarang juga mengatakan hal yang sama:

“The call for this week: Study the enclosed chart from the good folks at Zero Hedge.  There is remarkable similarity to the divergence that took place between stock prices and U.S. Economic Data Trends in April 2011 right before the SPX shed 8%.  Take that in concert with what happened to interest rates last week, a dearth of internal energy for the equity markets, a S&P 500 that is 2 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, rumors Operation Twist is over, Chinese consternations, regulators gone wild, rising gasoline prices, massive corporate insider selling, and my sense that in the short run all of the good news is on the table, and it appears as if the easy money has been made.”

Stocks Hit a Wall – And May Need the Fed After All (CNBC.com)

“When QE1 has ended, when QE2 has ended, basically the stock market has gone down by 1,500 points the next month or two. Is the Fed trapped in this conundrum of providing cheaper liquidity in order to pump up the stock market and risk markets? I think they are.  I won’t argue…whether it’s good policy, but it’s necessarily policy based on where central banks have led us.”

-Bill Gross, co-CEO of bond giant Pimco-

Pada kuartal ini, semua mata dan telinga akan tertuju ke anggota bank sentral AS untuk mengetahui apakah the Fed akan melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneter atau tidak.  Soalnya Operation Twist akan berakhir dalam kuartal kedua, dimana pasar kedepan harus menyerap 70% lebih banyak obligasi pemerintah per kuartal.  Tentunya itu saja dikhawatirkan akan cukup untuk membuat yields atau tingkat suku bunga atasnya meroket!

 

Tetapi QE juga dapat dipertanyakan secara politis jadi dalam suatu tahun pemilihan Presiden, Bernanke harus memilih tindakannya dengan lebih hati-hati daripada biasanya.  Maka situasinya sungguh rumit untuk the Fed karena mereka perlu menghindari langkah demi mendongkrak perekonomiannya yang tidak mudah dapat dibenarkan.  Kalau tidak, bank sentral AS akan dituduh atas kesepihakan …

Namun jika bursa saham AS terkoreksi secara signifikan (lebih dari 10%?) dan/atau inflasi terkendali di bawah 2%, yakinlah bahwa the Fed akan kembali mencetak banyak uang untuk mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi.  Jadi … jangan terkejut apabila bank sentral AS pada akhirnya memutuskan untuk membeli mortgage-backed securities atau government bonds senilai $1 trillion lebih.

Pokoknya saya secara pribadi berpendapat Ben Bernanke pasti akan mengumumkan quantitative easing jilid ketiga dalam salah satu pertemuan the Fed kedepan, tetapi belum bisa dipastikan kapan itu akan terjadi (Juni atau Juli?).  Itupun yang diungkapkan oleh Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital, yang khawatir suku bunga akan naik dan pemulihan ekonomi terhambat tanpa pelonggaran moneter yang berkelanjutan:

“The fact of the matter is if they don’t do the QE, then interest rates will rise significantly in the long-run, the long-term rates.”

“That will increase mortgage rates, crush the housing market and send the economy back into recession.  So the Fed is going to have to come back in by its own promise and it’s going to come in and do more QE.  It’s only a matter of time.”

“This phony recovery the Fed has engineered with cheap money cannot survive without continuous doses of cheap money.  If the Fed denies the economy QE3, it’s going to roll over and die.  Then it’s going to have to resuscitate it with more QE, more money printing.”

“Somebody is going to have to buy all of those bonds and if the Fed is not going to do it, who will?  Right now, the Fed is doing QE.  Whether they want to officially call it QE, they are doing it.  They are doing Operation Twist and buying government bonds.”

“The Fed has to buy government bonds to keep interest rates from skyrocketing.  As they stop, rates are going to go up and it will choke off the ‘recovery’ that is dependent on low rates.”

Bagaimana dengan IHSG?

Berhubungan IHSG berhasil mencetak rekor tertinggi yang baru, saya juga harus mempertimbangkan kembali hitungan gelombang untuk bursa saham Indonesia.  Sebelumnya saya berpikir IHSG telah menyelesaikan Intermediate wave (1) dari Primary wave l, dan sedang membentuk Minor wave B dari Intermediate wave (2).  Tetapi menyusul penembusan level tertinggi dari gelombang naik terakhir, saya perlu meninjau lagi wave structure dari IHSG.

Seperti dapat Anda lihat pada grafik mingguan dibawah ini, indeks saham utama di Indonesia ternyata masih berada dalam Minor wave 5 dari Intermediate wave (1).  Maka pada saat ini IHSG tetap bullish, namun pasca penyelesaian pembentukan Minor wave 5, kita akan memasuki Intermediate wave (2) dari Primary wave l yang sifatnya korektif.  Jadi apa implikasinya untuk kita sebagai investor?

Artinya bull market yang berlangsung dari kuartal keempat tahun 2008 hingga sekarang akan segera berakhir, dan kita perlu meningkatkan kewaspadaan.  Salah satu hal yang menurut saya wajib dilakukan sekarang oleh investor adalah memperketat stop loss, agar sebagian dari keuntungan yang belum terealisasi dapat diamankan ataupun kerugian bisa dibatasi.

Indikator teknikal juga mendukung peringatan tersebut, dimana baik RSI dan MACD menunjukkan sebuah bearish divergence!  Maka apabila bursa saham Indonesia suatu saat terperosok dan mengikuti pelemahan S&P 500 dari AS, seharusnya Anda tidak begitu terkejut, bukankah begitu?

Tetapi sekali lagi perlu saya ingatkan bahwa koreksinya kedepan – meskipun akan cukup tajam dalam beberapa bulan mendatang – tidak akan mampu membendung secular bull market atau bull market yang berkepanjangan ini, karena IHSG baru saja memasuki Primary wave l yang pada umumnya paling besar.  Dengan kata lain, kita akan ditawarkan peluang emas kembali tahun depan untuk membeli saham favorit kita pada harga yang sungguh menggiurkan (dan mungkin sulit dipercaya pada saat ini?).

Hal tersebut tidak hanya berlaku untuk Indonesia, tetapi untuk kebanyakan bursa saham di Asia.  Bahkan Global Market Perspective yang tertanggal 30 Maret 2012 setuju dengannya, dan menyampaikan pesan ini dalam Overview untuk Asian-Pacific stock markets:

“Despite the secular bear market in most of the developed world since 2000, many emerging markets continue to advance impulsively.  Many emerging markets in the past three years have experienced a huge consumption boom that is typical of large-degree third waves.  Yet their debt levels remain relatively low.  That will change many years in the future, when the emerging markets catch up to their developed-market peers and enter a speculative phase like the one from which Japan, Europe and the U.S. are currently deleveraging.  But for the next decade at least, most emerging markets will enjoy a sweet spot of progress and productivity.”

Kesimpulan

“I remain adamant that now would be one of the worst possible times to accept market risk in hopes of “catching up” – when valuations are rich instead of reasonable, prices are strenuously overbought instead of oversold, investor sentiment is exuberant rather than fearful, the growing technical divergences are negative rather than positive, corporate insiders are frantically selling instead of buying, stocks are grasping at speculative highs instead of multi-year lows, and risk premiums are razor-thin instead of satisfactory.”

-John P. Hussman, Ph.D.-

Baik pada tahun 2010 dan 2011, bursa saham dunia mengalami rallies yang sangat kuat dalam 4 bulan pertama, tetapi berikutnya jatuh dengan 16% dan 24%, sekaligus membenarkan ungkapan pasar “sell in May and go away”.  Maka pertanyaan sekarang adalah apakah bursa saham dunia akan kembali mengikuti pola yang serupa pada 2012, setelah naik 11% dalam kuartal pertama.

Pada kenyataan bursa saham Indonesia kini overboughtRelative Strength Index atau RSI pada weekly chart memang bisa saja makin menanjak, namun kita setidaknya sudah dapat peringatan dini supaya lebih berhati-hati.  Intinya adalah bahwa resiko telah meningkat dan investor disarankan untuk tidak bersikap terlalu agresif pada saat ini.

Tidak kurang dan juga tidak lebih dari itu …  Jadi ini bukan berarti Anda sama sekali tidak memiliki saham, tetapi Anda lebih waspada.  Selama kita masih berada dalam bull market, nikmatilah maupun manfaatkan semaksimal mungkin!

Untuk menutup artikel ini, yang sudah terlalu panjang seperti biasa, saya ingin menambah satu pesan dari Clif Droke pada Clif Droke.com, yang mudah-mudahan membuat Anda berpikir kritis mengenai tahun yang akan datang:

“The fact that this is a presidential election year, replete with the usual pump priming measures and underscored by the peaking 4-year cycle, has been an invaluable help in keeping revolutionary fervor suppressed for the moment.  But what those within the government and financial establishment have failed to consider is that once the 4-year cycle peaks later this year, we enter the final “hard down” phase of the 120-year cycle to bottom in late 2014.  This cycle is also known, in the words of Samuel J. Kress, as the “Revolutionary Cycle.”

“Regarding the 120-year cycle, Kress wrote:”

“The first 120-year Mega Cycle began in the mid 1770s after a prolonged depressed economy and the Revolutionary War which transformed America from an occupied territory to an independent country as we know the U.S.A. today.  The first 120-year cycle ended in the mid 1890s after the first major depression in the U.S. and the Spanish American War.  This began the second 120-year cycle which transformed the U.S. from an agricultural to a manufacturing based economy and which is referred to as the Industrial Revolution.  The second 120-year is scheduled to bottom in later 2014 to begin the third (everything comes in threes).  If history, an evolving cycle, continues to repeat itself, the potential for the third major depression and a WWIII equivalent exists and the U.S. could experience another transformation and our life style as we know it today.”

“Kress goes on to observe that the three elements which govern our lifestyles – political, economic and social – will come into play as the current 120-year cycle bottoms.  “The third [120-year bottom] scheduled for later 2014 (‘everything comes in threes’) should be a social revolution,” writes Kress.  “Could this be the demise of capitalism as we know it today?  The 120-year Mega Cycle could also be referred to as the Revolution Cycle, [with] 2014 the Revolutionary low.”

Apakah Anda sudah menyiapkan sabuk pengaman?  Jika tidak, apa yang membuat Anda begitu yakin perjalanannya kedepan mulus saja?

Selamat berinvestasi dan semoga Anda sehat dan sukses selalu …

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