Nico Omer

“When the Fiat Currency Bubble finally pops, the gold price will soar and fiat currencies will collapse, just like all fiat currencies have done throughout monetary history.  At that time I expect gold will return to its rightful and traditional role as international money at the center of global commerce.

My recommendation therefore is to continue accumulating physical gold, and if so inclined, silver too, in order to protect your wealth in preparation for this watershed event.  Even though gold’s purchasing power has been rising for more than a decade, its appreciation has much further to go.”

-James Turk in the Free Gold Money Report

Antusiasme atas kemenangan partai pro-bailout dalam pemilu Yunani akhir pekan lalu tidak berlangsung lama Senin (18 Juni 2012) kemarin, karena melonjaknya borrowing cost Spanyol memicu kekhawatiran eskalasi krisis hutang zona euro. Tidak hanya obligasi 10 tahun Spanyol yang tertekan, tetapi juga obligasi 10 tahun Italia, yang membuat yield-nya melonjak masing-masing di atas 7,13% dan di atas 6%.

Sekarang mari kita lihat lebih dekat sebuah aset yang mungkin tetap akan bagus dalam keadaan apapun, yaitu EMAS. John Hathaway, seorang Portfolio Manager dan Senior Managing Director pada Tocqueville Asset Management LP, pada tanggal 22 April 2012 lalu menulis sebuah artikel berjudul “Gold, Gold Mining Shares, and QE: Two Persistent Questions”. Di dalamnya, ia memprediksi bahwa “QE3 or not, we believe the gold price is headed towards new high territory.” Selain itu ia juga mengomentari mengenai kelanjutan QE sebagai berikut:

“We believe the risk/reward posture of the gold market is asymmetric.  By now, it seems that market expectations for additional QE have been sufficiently dashed; that any new round of monetary easing will come as a big surprise.  The possible absence of QE seems unlikely to inflict incremental damage to the gold price.

“On the other hand, a new round of QE will most likely be triggered by emergency conditions in the financial markets and be seen as both an act of desperation and a tacit admission by policy makers that they really have no answers.  In such a moment, we would not be surprised by a leap in the gold price approaching several hundred and possibly thousands of dollars an ounce in too short a period for significant capital to enter.

“It is of course possible that a political sea change could occur in the United States election this coming November that would lead to a meaningful restructuring of the fiscal and monetary position underlying the US dollar.  However, based on the precedent set by Europe in which clamor for fiscal reform has been silenced by austerity fatigue, we have serious doubts that such a shift would yield durable progress on issues that undermine the dollar’s credibility.

“Beyond QE, we believe there are many factors that would remain supportive of the gold price.  These include the unresolved issue as to how the Fed will exit the liquidity of its bloated balance sheet, the unresolved issue of fiscal deficits in all Western democracies, and the never ending travails of the euro zone.  And when chaos and complexity gain the upper hand, there are too many permutations to enumerate.”

Finally he concluded that “the opportunity that has been provided by the nine month correction in the precious metals sector is of the sort that only comes along once in a decade.  Many investors have been shaken out and still more sit on the sidelines, wondering whether the correction has run its course and awaiting better buying opportunities ahead.  Despite near term paralysis, increasing numbers of investors recognize that a commitment to gold is becoming a strategic imperative.

“By focusing on timing issues, one runs the grave risk of sitting on the sidelines as this next cycle in the precious metals bull market gathers force.  The history of gold bull markets has been to shakeout all but the most ardent and bloodied investors.  Those who obsess about the gold price on a daily basis, betray only their ignorance.  The acquisition and possession of gold is not a speculation on higher prices.  It has become a core component for the preservation of wealth in a cosmos of complexity and chaos.”

Mungkin artikel Mark O’Byrne dari Goldcore berikut dapat menggembirakan orang-orang yang sering diejek karena memiliki emas:

Anthony Robbins Bullish On Gold – Faber and Bass His Financial Gurus

“Tony Robbins (Anthony Robbins), one of the world’s leading performance coaches and motivational speakers has recently warned about the risk of dollar devaluation and spoke about the opportunities in gold which is “exploding” and “is in a bull market”.

“At Robbins’ recent event in London (May 18th to 21st), he spoke about the importance of getting good financial advice from the people who predicted this crisis and have made money for their clients in recent years.

“He spoke about investment experts who he respects and specifically mentioned Marc Faber and Kyle Bass.

“Robbins is one of the most positive and optimistic people in the world.  Nevertheless, he recently produced a YouTube video warning of an impending economic collapse.

“Faber and Bass are extremely bearish on paper currencies and government debt and are very bullish on gold and silver bullion due to the euro zone debt crisis and looming global debt crisis due to the appalling fiscal state of Japan, the UK and the US.

“Dr Marc Faber is a Swiss financier who predicted the Wall Street Crash in 1987.  He is the editor and publisher of the “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” and author of many books including the best selling ‘Tomorrow’s Gold: Asia’s Age of Discovery’.

“Faber advised investors to buy gold in 2001 and he is still extremely bullish on gold and silver and believes that gold will rise in all economic circumstances – a global inflationary economic boom, stagflationary environment or even in a global deflationary recession or Depression.

“Kyle Bass is the erudite Texan investor who saw the financial crisis coming and made a fortune in the sub-prime collapse – first from America’s sub-prime mortgage crisis and then from betting that Greece would default.  Now he’s positioned and ready for the collapse of entire countries, having bought credit default swaps on Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal and, interestingly, Switzerland.

“Robbins shares the concerns of Faber and Bass regarding sovereign defaults and Robbins is very concerned about the risks of a US debt crisis and the risks that it poses to the US dollar.

“A recent video ‘The National Debt and Federal Budget Deficit Deconstructed’ by Robbins is well worth a watch: www.youtube.com/GoldCoreLimited

“Gold and indeed those who own it are often accused of being ‘barbaric’, ‘uncivilised’ and ‘bugs.’

“Indeed, there is often a suggestion that those who own gold are negative ‘doom and gloom merchants’ who hope that the world financial and monetary system will collapse so that their gold holdings will surge in value and they will be ‘rich as Croesus.’

“Anthony Robbins and indeed most who are positive about and advise owning gold very much contradict this silly view.  Indeed, many of them have been warning about these fiscal challenges for years in an effort to protect family, friends, clients and the public.

“The majority of people who buy gold are rational economic people who realize that there is macroeconomic, geopolitical, monetary and systemic risk in the world and they buy gold as a store of value.

“They buy gold as they simply wish to protect themselves and their families from these risks by owning the financial insurance that is gold.

“Robbins has a massive following internationally – especially amongst business owners but also in the sporting, media, music and entertainment industries and his endorsement of the importance of owning gold is significant.”

Beberapa minggu lalu David Einhorn, pendiri Greenlight Capital, menyamakan kebijakan moneter Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke dengan melahap jelly donuts:

“A jelly donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost. Two jelly donuts are an indulgent breakfast. Three jelly donuts may induce a tummy ache. Six jelly donuts, that’s an eating disorder.  Twelve jelly donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.

“My point is that you can have too much of a good thing …  Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like the 36th jelly donut of easy money and wondering why it isn’t giving us energy or making us feel better.  Instead of a robust recovery, the economy continues to be sluggish …

“As a result, I will keep a substantial long exposure to gold, which serves as a jelly-donut-antidote for my portfolio.”

Dan Denning, yang menulis artikel yang sangat menggugah pikiran untuk The Daily Reckoning belum lama ini, menantang dengan mempertanyakan pernyataan Charlie Munger tentang emas. Di dalamnya ia mengklaim bahwa sekarang mungkin merupakan saat terbaik untuk memiliki emas karena kita sedang hidup di zaman yang benar-benar menarik – atau meminjam istilahnya adalah tidak beradab.

Saya berasumsi tidak semua orang akan setuju dengannya, tapi saya kira Anda perlu waktu 5 menit hanya untuk bertanya pada diri sendiri, setelah membaca paragraf ini, apakah sebuah ide yang buruk untuk membeli emas (seperti yang diindikasikan oleh Munger)? Dan apakah sistem moneter yang diadopsi saat ini akan berlanjut, atau sesuatu yang lain akan menggantinya?

Berikut adalah penggalan-penggalan dari artikel tersebut. Silakan menikmati dan melihat apakah Anda menjadi lebih bersemangat untuk membeli beberapa koin emas … atau sebaliknya, tidak sama sekali:

“Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner in crime at Berkshire Hathaway, told CNBC recently, “I think gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you’re a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939, but I think civilized people don’t buy gold.  They invest in productive businesses.”

“Interestingly, for more than a decade Berkshire has underperformed gold – the investment asset Buffett recently called “forever unproductive.”  (see chart below from www.agorafinancial.com)

“Since 1997, Berkshire’s shares have declined relative to this forever unproductive asset.  The nearby chart depicts the trailing 10-year return of gold since 2007.  Thus, the first data point on this chart shows the return an investor would have received from buying gold or Berkshire Hathaway in 1997.  Moving across the chart to the right shows subsequent 10-year time frames.  Bottom line: Based on a 10-year holding period, there has not been a single moment since late 1997 what an investor would have been better off buying Berkshire Hathaway instead of gold.

“No wonder Charlie is so cranky!

“This lengthy underperformance by Berkshire may explain Buffett’s and Munger’s very vocal and public hostility toward gold.  Or maybe that’s just a function of both men living most of their adult lives in an era where the monetary system was not disintegrating.  They are unable to imagine it.

“But the chart above isn’t an indictment of the investment acumen of Buffett and Munger.  It’s an indictment of the world’s fiat monetary system!  A civilized society with civilized people has sound money.  An economy with sound money has price stability.  This stability allows for long-term planning and investment.  This stability rewards investors for identifying which businesses are the most productive and efficient users of shareholder capital.

“In an uncivilized society, where the value of your labor is stolen through inflation (made possible by an unsound money system) long-term planning and investment become much more difficult, if not impossible.

“If you accept that we live in civilized monetary times where productive labor is actually rewarded, your brain has been tranquilized by the Big Lie of our times.  Munger wants you right where you are.  The less you think about how uncivilized the current monetary system is, the less likely you are to question it or disrupt it (which would be inconvenient for Charlie).

“But if you live an era that subverts accurate valuation of productive businesses – an era that subverts the productivity of the economy itself by encouraging debt and consumption, owning gold seems prudent, not wacky.

“Uncivilized times call for uncivilized investments.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Emas sedang berada dalam momentum penting. Seperti Anda dapat lihat pada 4-Hourly chart di bawah ini, ada pola rising wedge yang terbentuk dalam 2 pekan terakhir, yang membatasi baik lows maupun highs hingga saat ini (19 Juni 2012).

Jelas terlihat bahwa emas bergerak sideways dalam kisaran yang sangat sempit, setelah menyelesaikan penurunan dalam 5 waves pada minggu kedua Juni. Jadi pertanyaannya sekarang adalah: Apakah emas menghadapi resistance kuat atau justru akan menembusnya di pekan ini?
Level paling penting untuk diamati dalam 48 jam ke depan adalah reaction high sebelumnya di $1,640.50. Jika A-B-C Wave berakhir dengan C Wave di bawah puncak tersebut, maka gerak selanjutnya akan turun dan idealnya akan membentuk penurunan lagi dalam 5 gelombang.
Intinya: Jika support di level $1,606.49 berhasil ditembus, maka akan menjadi peluang untuk mengambil atau menambah posisi jual karena emas dapat kembali ke lows sekitar $1,525. Namun sebaliknya, jika menembus ke atas $1,640.50 maka kemungkinan akan cenderung terjadi rebound kuat menuju 61,8% fibonacci retracement dari penurunan $1,790.30 ke $1,527.00 yang berada di $1,689,72.

Przemyslaw Radomski di Sunshine Profits melakukan analisis yang sangat menarik untuk korelasi komoditas minyak mentah dengan logam mulia. Berikut adalah gambaran teknikal beserta komentar tambahan darinya:

“In the long-term chart below we see that oil prices continue their breakdown.  This chart suggests that oil is likely to decline much more (to 74 or likely to 65 or even lower) and that gold prices have merely seen a small pause in their downtrend, much as was the case in 2008.  The implications here are bearish for gold and the entire precious metals sector.”

Stewart Thomson dari Graceland Updates memperlihatkan grafik bulanan emas, yang disebutnya dengan “carrier strike group” karena dia menyoroti areal technical support yang paling luas. Berikut adalah grafiknya beserta sedikit saran investasi darinya.

“If you commit any risk capital to gold, you are committing capital to the world’s lowest-risk asset.  It should be committed mostly when price declines into one of these massive support areas.  With gold, you must be able to deal with drawdowns of any size.  If you can’t deal with any and all drawdowns, then you have invested too heavily.”

Terakhir datang dari Tim Jacono dari Jacono Research memiliki lelucon mengenai Kanselir Jerman pada tulisannya tanggal 15 Juni 2012, yang berjudul “Merkel On the Chances of Greece Staying in the Eurozone”:

“During a press conference last Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel gestured in response to a questioner who asked how she gauged the chances of Greece remaining in the European currency union after the political change that is expected to be ushered in following Sunday’s election.

“No, not really.  This is just the photo accompanying a Bloomberg story about how Germany is set to lead the fight in the next stage of the European sovereign debt crisis.  However, it wouldn’t be too surprising to learn that she holds little hope for Greece staying in the eurozone.

Dibuat Tanggal 19 Juni 2012