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Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 5)

July 30th, 2012 1 comment

“It’s estimated that there are some six billion ounces of refined gold in human possession around the world, or, somewhat less than one ounce per person.  Global gold production is said to be about 80 million ounces per year, or about a 1.3% annual increase in the supply of gold.  That would be the steady, “natural” rate of inflation if we were on a gold standard.  The amount of various currency units in the world is increasing at a much, much faster pace than 1.3%.  Nobody really knows, not even the Fed, but depending on how you define the money supply, it would take $10,000 to $50,000 – or more – per ounce to back all of the dollars in existence with gold.  Whatever the correct number is, I expect gold’s price in dollars to increase dramatically as the world moves closer to and eventually adopts a gold standard.”

-Doug Casey

Pagi ini (27 Juli 2012) kita menyaksikan rilis data dari Jepang, yakni retail sales periode Juninya yang naik 0,2% y/y.  Ini merupakan kenaikannya selama 7 bulan beruntun meskipun hasilnya tersebut masih di bawah konsensus pasar yang memperkirakan kenaikan hingga 1,2% dan menunjukkan hilangnya momentum dari kenaikan 3,6% di bulan Mei, 5,7% di bulan April dan 10,3% di bulan Maret.

Juga di hari yang sama fokus pasar akan menuju data GDP 2Q 2012 untuk estimasi pertama.  Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS di kuartal pertama sebesar 1,9%, berada di bawah proyeksi dan lebih rendah dari 3,0% di kuartal sebelumnya.  Di kuartal kedua, gross domestic product AS diperkirakan akan bertumbuh 1,5% y/y, demikian ditunjukkan oleh sebuah polling dari Reuters.  Level tersebut merupakan pertumbuhan terendahnya sejak kuartal kedua tahun 2011, yang menurut analis dapat mendorong the Fed AS kembali melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya.

Kebanyakan orang sepertinya hanya memperhatikan headlines-nya saja dan “lupa” untuk melihat apa yang SEBENARNYA terjadi.  Sebelum Anda benar-benar antusias terhadap rally pada sejumlah besar aset-aset beresiko kemarin, berikut adalah sejumlah FAKTA yang seharusnya Anda ingat (dikutip dari Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com):

1) “The kneejerk short covering reaction to Draghi’s remark that he will do “anything to preserve the euro” (this must be news because yesterday the ECB would not do anything to preserve the euro supposedly) is over.  Now the analysis begins of what was actually said.  The realization is … nothing.  From Bloomberg:

  • ‘Nothing Structural’ In Post-Draghi Bond Spread Moves: Credit Agricole
  • While selloff in bunds may extend further, it appears to be just “correction” of what is risk-averse bull rally, Credit Agricole fixed income strategist Peter Chatwell says in interview.
  • The inverse is still case for periphery; says “we’re still in regime of elevated peripheral yields” and difficulty in those markets
  • Draghi remarks on ECB readiness to act “deliberately ambiguous,” clearly in response to market volatility and distress
  • In being so ambiguous, comments are “slightly threatening” for investors short the periphery; could be hinting at further easing, rate cuts, or something “much more bold”

And now the countdown to the halflife begins.  Typically cases such as this where the ECB leaves an open door without any actual hints of what it will do, have a several hour kneejerk lifetime.  If and when Germany comes out and denies everything Draghi said, whatever it may have actually been, it will be minutes.”

2) “The question remains – given all the front-running anticipatory moves on the back of jawbone after jawbone, will ECB/Fed action have anything but a brief romance with higher prices when/if it occurs?  The S&P 500 pushed up to fill its Monday opening gap-down on a reasonable volume day (heading into T-3 from month-end shenanigans) but the participation is absolutely not what one would expect if this was belief with S&P 500 e-mini futures seeing their lowest average trade size of the year.

Lower pane is average trade size for the S&P 500 – today was the lowest of the year – suggesting very little professional participation … ES remains in this fibonacci retracement block which feels very much like a correction in a downtrend …”

“On one hand we have Mario Draghi promising he has a magic wand (not a printer – remember the keys to that are now held by Angela Merkel who is on vacation) and to “believe him” that the EUR will survive.  On the other we have Greece which is a poster child of everything that is wrong in Europe.  And that we summarize as follows: i) an epic and now relentless deposit outflow from Greek banks which continues as all trust in the local banking system is now gone, as €7 billion in deposits or the second biggest amount ever, is pulled and 20% of the entire corporate and household deposit base has vaporized in the past year, and ii) an economy in which it is every man for himself and where nobody pays any taxes any more, period.  Best of luck in preserving that EUR Super Mario.

Here is the just released move in June deposits in Greece:

3) The question remains – given all the front-running anticipatory moves on the back of jawbone after jawbone, will ECB/Fed action have anything but a brief romance with higher prices when/if it occurs?  The S&P 500 pushed up to fill its Monday opening gap-down on a reasonable volume day (heading into T-3 from month-end shenanigans) but the participation is absolutely not what one would expect if this was belief with S&P 500 e-mini futures seeing their lowest average trade size of the year.

Lower pane is average trade size for the S&P 500 – today was the lowest of the year – suggesting very little professional participation … ES remains in this fibonacci retracement block which feels very much like a correction in a downtrend …”

Chart: Bloomberg

4) “In a week which has seen the Fed telegraphing further QEasing by its favorite mouthpiece, and the ECB promising, but never delivering, both that the ESM would get a banking license, which prevented the EURUSD from tumbling below 1.20 yesterday yet which has been totally forgotten today, and that we should “beeleeve” Mario Draghi that unlike before he will not let the EUR fail, the cherry on top and the one event which removes any doubt that the coordinated events of this whole have had the sole purposes of masking that US corporate success has finally plateaued and it is ‘only downhill from here’, comes courtesy of the CME which moments ago cut the margin requirements on the bulk of its equity indices by 20-25%.”

Dengan kata lain, tidak banyak hal baru atau substansi dari komentar para pembuat kebijakan jadi saya memperkirakan akan terjadi sell on strength euro dan aset-aset beresiko lainnya (pound sterling, Aussie dollar, bursa saham dan akhirnya juga emas).

Di akhir diskusi kita mengenai emas ini, saya akan mengetengahkan komentar Richard Russell, seorang Godfather untuk penulis surat kabar, dalam wawancaranya dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) pada 26 Juni 2012, yang mendiskusikan tentang emas dengan panjang lebar dan juga mengingatkan pembacanya mengapa emas merupakan sebuah aset yang harus dimiliki dalam portofolio investasi setiap orang:

“Sadly, the whole world is searching for income and safety, and the fact is that there is no income and there is no ultimate safety. Then how does one build wealth? The Asians know the answer to that — YOU BUY and HOLD GOLD — and exercise a lot of patience.

Stocks can declare dividends, but they can omit their dividends during hard times. Furthermore, stocks can go broke. But gold represents indestructible wealth. Gold rises in terms of fiat money, and gold declines in terms of fiat money.

Gold possesses some properties that are beyond the scope of other investments. Gold can’t go broke, because gold does not derive its purchasing power from the edict or control of any sovereign power or central bank. Gold has no counter-parties. Gold is tangible and is accepted everywhere — in good times or bad. Gold exists outside the world’s banking system. Unlike fiat money, gold is wealth on its own.

It’s tangible and not the fantasy-creation of central bankers. Gold does not need a sponsor or the acceptance of an expert (such as pricing a Picasso painting), because all gold is intrinsically the same. Gold does not tarnish nor does it degenerate — the gold in your watch may be the same gold that Cleopatra wore around her neck.

The supply of gold, unlike paper money, is limited. Alchemists have tried for centuries to turn other metals into gold — but have never succeeded. Gold is a beautiful metal on its own and the lust for gold seems to be built into the DNA of mankind. If you own ten thousand ounces of gold, you can say that you will ALWAYS be wealthy.

I have said before that China intends to be THE world leader. In order to make that happen, China has decided to defeat the US on economic terms. And that means — first, replacing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and establishing the renminbi as the world’s new reserve currency. For the last two years, China has encouraged its people to accumulate gold on their own.

It is clear that China intends to be the world center for buying and selling gold. China is also placing vending machines in various strategic areas, which will allow people to buy small quantities of gold at their leisure, just as if they were buying chewing gum.

The plus in all this for Americans is that the price of gold will be out of the grip and manipulations of the Federal Reserve and the Comex. It is well known that the Fed despises gold, because gold is out of the of the Fed’s control. Furthermore, gold competes with the Fed’s own fiat currency. The value of gold never changes. What changes is the number of dollars that are required to purchase a specific quantity of gold.

Note on the chart below (from Google) that China is a minuscule holder of gold compared with Western powers. For instance the US holds 8133 tons of gold while China holds a mere 1054 tons of gold. China means to change this ratio. Actually China’s ratio of gold to currency is a tiny 1.7% while the US ratio is above 74%.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Di ‘The Boldest Gold Prediction Ever’ Louis Basenese menampilkan sebuah grafik yang sangat menarik dengan suatu target harga untuk emas yang tinggi sekali:

“We’re all familiar with the Pareto principle.  We just know it by a different name: the 80/20 rule.

Well, Austrian investment bank, Erste Group, recently applied this idea to the gold market to predict where prices are headed next.  It used its findings from the gold bull market between 1970 and 1980.  That’s when 80% of the metal’s price performance occurred in the last 20% of the trend.

The result?  Gold at $8,300 by the spring of 2015, according to analyst, Ronald-Peter Stöferle.

Talk about a bold prediction!  That’s 422.7% above current prices.”

Menurut pandangan pribadi saya harga emas kemungkinan masih akan turun lebih dalam dari levelnya saat ini. Jika badai ekonomi tiba, maka emas akan terlihat sebagai sumber likuiditas yang mudah.  Rendahnya tingkat inflasi, atau justru deflasi, akan membuat emas kehilangan daya tarik investasinya dalam jangka pendek.

Tapi saya tidak akan menjual emas sekarang. Memegang hingga 20% dari portofolio Anda dalam bentuk emas tetap menjadi strategi yang masuk akal. Mengapa? Karena kekacauan ekonomi sebagian besar dunia Barat tidak akan dapat disembuhkan seperti sediakala. Saya pun masih khawatir bahwa masalah utang pemerintah yang tidak berkelanjutan dan balance sheet perbankan yang rapuh akan diperjuangkan dengan mesin cetak. Jumlah uang yang perlu dibuat adalah kolosal. Apa pengaruhnya untuk nilai uang akan menjadi nomor dua bagi para politisi dan bankir, tetapi jika terjadi maka Anda akan senang karena memiliki sejumlah asuransi dalam emas.

Cara yang paling aman untuk bertransaksi adalah menunggu sebuah uptrend yang jelas sebelum Anda melakukan aksi beli. Anda mungkin tidak akan mengantongi keuntungan 100% penuh, tetapi Anda juga tidak sedang mencoba menangkap pisau yang jatuh. Jadi yang Anda hanya lakukan adalah menunggu Golden Bull untuk memperoleh kekuatannya kembali, dan break out menembus keluar dari lilitan pola konsolidasi yang terjadi beberapa bulan terakhir ini.

Agar hari ini tetap ceria, berikut adalah salah satu lelucon yang biasa dilakukan oleh Jay Leno:

“Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee the economic recovery is weakening.  But the good news is most Americans will not be affected because they had no idea there was a recovery.”

Dan jika Anda kebetulan adalah orang tua (ibu) tunggal, dan kehabisan ide untuk menarik perhatian lawan jenis, berikut suatu hal yang mungkin bisa membantu Anda:

Dibuat Tanggal 27 Juli 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 4)

July 30th, 2012 No comments

“Gold is the mirror of the world’s paper currency system.  The price of gold doesn’t reflect the intrinsic value of the metal – which is almost unchanging over time.  It reflects the relative value and volatility of paper currencies.  The people who are arguing that gold is overvalued are not looking at the right numbers.  They ought to be looking at Europe’s banks.  They ought to be looking at the amount of short-term obligations that are sitting on the US Treasury’s books.  The price of gold is reflecting the likelihood that the world’s sovereign nations decide to bail out Europe’s banks and paper over the US Treasury debt.”

-Porter Stansberry

South Korea, yang merupakan perekonomian terbesar ke-4 di Asia dan sangat bergantung dari ekspor smartphones, kapal dan mobil, mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi 0,4% (seasonally adjusted) di periode April-Juni  2012 dari kuartal sebelumnya.

Reuters melaporkan bahwa “details provided by the Bank of Korea showed the economy would have shrunk by half a percent if imports did not fall in the second quarter indicating the growth rate of 0.4 percent was little more than a statistical illusion.

Analysts said they could not predict when the world’s seventh-largest exporter would begin to recover, but the data reinforced their view that another interest rate cut is needed soon after a surprising reduction early this month.”

Kemudian di sesi AS hari ini (Kamis 26 Juli 2012) fokus akan tertuju pada rilis data Durable Goods Orders AS.  Pada bulan Mei demand terhadap produk tahan lama AS tersebut meningkat 1,3%, sementara di bulan Juni Reuters memperkirakan peningkatan tipis 0,2%.

Seperti biasa, kita juga akan dihadapkan pada data Jobless Claims Weekly Report AS, sebuah data mingguan klaim tunjangan pengangguran yang malam ini dirilis untuk periode di pekan yang berakhir 20 Juli lalu.  Di pekan sebelumnya angka penduduk AS yang mengajukan klaim tersebut meningkat sebesar 34.000 menjadi 386.000, setelah mengalami penurunan tajam karena periode auto-plant retooling musiman. Untuk rilis aktualnya nanti malam diperkirakan turun menjadi 380.000.

Pertanyaan yang barangkali muncul pada benak setiap orang saat ini adalah: Kapan bank-bank sentral dunia akan mengengkol mesin cetaknya kembali, dan apakah aksinya the Fed akan terjadi  saat pertemuan moneternya yang akan berlangsung pekan depan pada 31 Juli hingga 1 Agustus?

Secara pribadi saya berpikir bahwa jika Bernanke melihat realita yang ada, tentunya dia akan mengambil langkah penyelamatan dengan QE3.  Ketika itu terjadi, emas dan perak akan berlomba naik.  Namun … saya juga merasa bahwa the Chairman of the Federal Reserve itu akan kesulitan untuk menarik pelatuknya saat ini.

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com sepertinya punya pandangan yang sama dengan saya.  Berikut adalah hal yang dikatakannya kemarin terkait dengan kelanjutan pelonggaran moneter dalam jangka pendek ini:

“We, like BofAML, are more predisposed to expectations of a rate extension next week to mid-2015 followed by NEW QE in September (with a disappointed equity market slump in between that ‘enables’ NEW QE).

In our view, the Fed isn’t quite ready to launch QE3 yet – would prefer to see more data – but could extend forward guidance to reflect the recent string of disappointing data at their August 1 meeting.  We continue to expect a rate extension next week to mid-2015 followed by QE3 in September.

Satu hal yang perlu diingat: krisis hutang saat ini, yang dialami oleh Eropa, AS, Jepang dan juga Inggris, pasti akan berdampak pada harga logam mulia.  Contohnya Eric Sprott, seorang Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, dalam wawancaranya dengan King World News baru-baru ini mengatakan tentang krisis yang sedang berlangsung di Eropa tersebut:

“It’s beyond the ability of governments to deal with all of these weak countries.  There are only one of two answers: Yes, someone could print as much money as they want.  Maybe they could print $5 trillion and say, ‘We’ll back up all of the banking systems.’

And then one could maybe say the problem is solved.  Of course the problem is, if they print $5 trillion, everyone knows they can’t back it up with anything.  Then you will lose confidence in the currency and you will go into hyperinflation because people will realize that real things are safer than paper things, including bonds and stocks and things like that.

So there are only two choices, they’ve got to print or there are going to be some defaults, which is the natural offspring of a Minsky moment …

Sooner or later you have to write off the debt or you have to inflate it away.

If they inflate it away, then the reason for gold and silver to go higher will be incredible.  If they deflate it away, the need for people to take their money out of banks so the depositor doesn’t lose money becomes all that more apparent.  And where do you put that money you take out of the bank?  Well, the logical thing is to have it in gold and silver.”

Kemudian – dalam wawancara lainnya dengan King World News – Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan managing partner Matterhorn Asset Management, juga mengomentari tentang krisis finansial yang sedang terjadi dan kemana kita akan dibawa:

“Spanish rates have broken back above the 7% level once again, but in reality we know that many European countries will never be able to repay these debts.  You now have a total worldwide debt of around $150 trillion.  If you add to that contingent liabilities, unfunded liabilities, pension funds, etc., you are talking about $500 trillion.

If you add to that the outstanding derivatives, which are around one quadrillion dollars, and there are no reserves for them.  These are issued without any real asset backing them.  If you combine the two figures you are at a staggering one and a half quadrillion dollars.  That’s against world GDP which is around $50 trillion.

So you are talking here about a leverage of 30 times global GDP …

How can anyone in the world invest in any government bond when they know that it can never be repaid?  The world is simply drowning in debt.  This is why it is guaranteed that governments will print money.

So the money printing will come and the hyperinflation will come because without that we have no banking system and no financial system left.  You are talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars that potentially need to be printed.  The effect of this on the global economy will be disastrous.

Prices of hard assets will go into the stratosphere, and this, of course, includes gold and silver.  Last time we talked about my target on gold of $3,500 to $5,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, and then over $10,000 in 3 years.  But with all of the money creation we are talking about, the world will experience massive inflation.  We already know that gold went from 100 marks to 100 trillion marks, from 1919 to 1923, during the Weimar Republic.

With world debt at much greater levels today vs. that time period, the gold price will eventually have lots and lots of zeros after it.  But people who are still holding paper money may very well find it is worthless.  At least gold will protect your purchasing power.

What has to be said today to holders of government debt, which yields nothing, is when you have governments like the US, Spanish, Greek, and now even the German government with all of their ballooning commitments, there is no government that will ever be able to repay these debts.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Mungkin seorang chartist dari Jim Sinclair, Dan Norcini, yang terbaik dalam menjelaskan situasi terkini di pasar emas:

“Traders are literally sitting on edge.  As each bit of economic data comes out or each story breaks out of Europe, traders have no conviction as to which way things are going.  So, what’s happening is this lack of conviction, this confusion, has traders jumpy.

This action should continue unless we get a definite resolution to the question, is there going to be a QE3?  Until then, we should see more of this volatility and choppy type of trading.”

Sementara menurut Chris Puplava, seorang Portfolio Manager dan juga Fundamental Analyst pada PFS Group, akan ada QE3 dan QE berikutnya, yang jelas terlihat dari judul artikel yang ditulisnya pada 20 Juli 2012 lalu, yakni Global QE Is Coming: Let the Gold Mania Begin!.

Berikut adalah komentar beserta grafik dari artikel yang luar biasa tersebut:

“… I’ve taken a look at the top 10 debtor nations of the world to see if they had a large portion of their total outstanding debt maturing in the near future.  What I found startled me: Nearly 50% of the total outstanding debt of the world’s top 10 debtor nations needs to be rolled over by the end of 2015.

While fears over a European contagion and a hard landing in China have driven investors into sovereign debt like the US and Japan, how long can this continue and will investor demand for sovereign debt be able to soak up the total supply over the next few years?  It is my belief that global central banks will be the buyers of last resort and will be monetizing the debt in massive quantities over the next two and a half years.  This may perhaps be the catalyst leading to the mania phase for gold as investors all over the world attempt to protect themselves from global quantitative easing and global currency debasement.

The Top 10 Debtor Nations

While the world is currently focused on Spain and Italy as seen by 5-year credit default swap insurance north of 500 basis points (costs $500K annually to protect $10M worth of debt from default), the picture for the other countries that make up the top 10 debtor nations in the world is not much brighter.  For example, while Italy has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, Japan takes the top spot with 208%; and while Italy currently has a budget deficit relative to GDP of -3.9%, the US is far worse with a -8.10%.  In fact, of the top 10 debtor nations half of them have budget deficits of more than 5% relative to GDP and 7 of the 10 have debt-to-GDP ratios at or exceeding 80%.  As the table below from Bloomberg highlights, the sovereign debt crisis is not a Euro phenomenon but a GLOBAL issue.

I believe global central banks will be monetizing debt in massive quantities between now and 2015 because large portions of debt will be maturing in just the next two and a half years.  For example, both the US and Japan will see one fifth of their entire debt outstanding mature just between now and the end of the year, with Canada seeing 26% of their total outstanding debt mature! The other members of the top 10 are only in a slightly better position with all but the UK to see double-digit debt rollovers of their total outstanding debt between now and 2015.

Looking at the outstanding debt for the top 10 combined shows that just between now and the end of the year more than $5 trillion in debt will mature, or 17% of their total outstanding debt, and by 2015 nearly 50% of the top 10 debtor nations total outstanding debt will come due.  That is more than $15 trillion in debt coming due in the next two and a half years!

Because we are going to see trillions and trillions of sovereign debt come due over the next two and a half years I believe gold may be entering the mania phase of its secular bull market that began in 2001.  There is just too much debt maturing over the next couple of years for capital markets to absorb and it is highly likely we will see global quantitative easing occur as central banks step in to be buyers of last resort to help suppress interest rates and keep debt servicing costs low.  Over the next two years we will likely see the big 4 central banks combined reserves exceed $10 trillion dollars.

Global currency debasement has been one of the main drivers for gold’s appreciation and massive jumps in central bank balance sheets are also associated with kicking off big moves in gold.  With the massive amount of debt to roll over just ahead and the likely increase in central bank balance sheets, we may just see gold head to new all-time highs as global investors move to protect their capital from the tidal wave of cheap money.”

Dan seperti biasa Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com juga turut andil di isu ini dengan menulis artikel yang sangat menarik pada 19 Juni 2012 lalu, yang berjudul In Case of NEW QE, Gold to $1,900-$8,500 Says SocGen:

“In a previous post we showed how, despite Goldman’s best wishes, the market may have just priced itself out of a treat from the Fed tomorrow, and right into a trick.  That said, in case the Fed has in fact succumbed to the pleadings of its superiors (read Primary Dealers) and does proceed with some seriously unsterilized dollar mauling, the next question is what is the best hedge.  SocGen asked the same, and provided several strategies to take advantage of central planners exhibiting a rare case of Einstein’s definition on insanity … over and over.  Their “Strategy #1: Bolster Positions In Gold Ahead of QE3.”  Why?  Because once the next round of the gold juggernaut is unleashed, gold may go to anywhere between $1900, just shy of the all time nominal high, and $8500 … just a tad higher than the nominal high.

From SocGen:

  • USD 1,900/oz: To close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007, gold would have to rise to $1,900/oz, assuming full transmission from the monetary base increase to the gold price.
  • USD 8,500/oz: If gold catches up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s), its price would rise to USD 8,500/oz.

The latter scenario is the price only catching up with where it should be.  Add another $700 billion – $1 trillion for a potential NEW QE, and you get a 5 digit (and increasingly more meaningless) number.”

Sebelum mengakhiri laporan ini, saya akan mengetengahkan kepada Anda kata-kata bijak dari Tim Price, seorang director of investment di PFP Group serta editor surat kabar The Price Report, dan sebuah gambar yang mungkin bernilai ribuan kata:

“Gold is also now getting attention from the unlikeliest of sources.  Bond fund manager Bill Gross of Pimco recently wrote: “As [investors] question the value of much of the $200 trillion which comprises our current [monetary] system, they move marginally elsewhere – to real assets such as land, gold and tangible things, or to cash and a figurative mattress where at least their money is readily accessible.”

In short, investors are faced with a choice between vast abundance (in paper assets and all things debt-like), and genuine scarcity (tangible and real assets, especially gold).  In a deleveraging world and in light of the ongoing financial crisis, it makes sense to vote for scarcity.”

Dibuat Tanggal 26 Juli 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 3)

July 26th, 2012 No comments

“All the talk about a gold bubble seems to be based on the fact that so many investors are now talking about gold.  However, the problem with this argument is that despite all the talking, very few investors are actually buying.  Bubbles are not formed by talk, but by action.  Before we get a gold bubble, all those investors talking about gold actually have to buy an ounce.  In fact, before a bubble pops, it’s not just investors, but the average man in the street who will have to be buying. Thus far, he has not even joined the conversation.”

-Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Precious Metals

Pagi ini (25 Juli 2012) ada 2 data penting yang dirilis saat sesi pasar Asia berlangsung.

Ekspor Jepang turun 2,3 persen di bulan Juni untuk basis tahunan, dan merupakan penurunan pertamanya dalam 4 bulan, akibat melambannya perekonomian di Eropa, Cina dan negara-negara berkembang lainnya yang kemudian menekan permintaan untuk barang-barang dari Jepang.

Hal utama yang perlu dicatat di sini adalah bahwa ekspor ke Eropa Juni anjlok 21,3 persen untuk basis tahunan, yang merupakan penurunan terbesar sejak penurunan pada Oktober 2009 karena krisis hutang Eropa.

CPI Australia meningkat rata-rata 0,6% di kuartal pertama tahun ini, sesuai perkiraan. Inflasi tahunan sebesar 1,95 persen merupakan yang terendah sejak 1998 serta di bawah target inflasi jangka panjang Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2 hingga 3 persen, yang membuka peluang pemangkasan suku bunga lebih lanjut jika diperlukan untuk meredam kekhawatiran global.

Amee Kaye, ekonom dari Macquarie, mengomentari data inflasi Australia tersebut sebagai berikut:

We’re factoring in a further 50 basis points of rate cuts, one in November and a following 25 basis points in December.  We’re expecting the underlying inflation number to remain around 2-to-2.5 percent, so the lower end of the (central bank) target band.”

Jadi apakah ini artinya kita harus mempertimbangkan untuk menjual Australian dollar terhadap mata uang lainnya pada kuartal keempat nanti?  Mari kita nantikan bagaimana reaksi pasar jika dan ketika RBA beraksi …

Hari ini juga akan dirilis indeks Survey Sentimen Bisnis Jerman dari lembaga Ifo, yang merupakan perubahan (dalam basis bulanan) iklim bisnis di Jerman.  Negara terkemuka Uni Eropa kian pesimis di bulan Mei terkait dengan outlook ekonominya mendatang.  Data survey tersebut dirilis 105.3 di bulan Juni, lebih rendah dari 106.9 Mei sebelumnya, dan juga di bawah ekspektasi 106.1 dari ekonom ketika itu. Untuk periode Juli ini, rilisnya diperkirakan kembali turun ke level 104.7.

Namun data terpenting hari ini tentu saja GDP Inggris untuk kuartal kedua 2012, yang diproyeksikan akan mengalami kontraksi kembali, yakni sebesar 0,2 persen, melanjutkan kontraksinya di kuartal pertama, -0,3 persen.  Penyebab utama resesi tersebut kemungkinan dari lemahnya sektor konstruksi.  Berlanjutnya penurunan GDP akan menunjukkan berlanjutnya keterpurukan aktifitas perekonomian Inggris, dan dapat memberikan tekanan bagi pound sterling.

Serta jangan lupa untuk mengamati data New Home Sales AS.  Di bulan Mei, data ini meningkat 369.000 unit dari 343.000 unit di bulan April.  Peningkatan tajam tersebut merupakan peningkatannya dalam 4 bulan beruntun dan merupakan level tertingginya selama 2 tahun.

Jika data tersebut masih berlanjut naik maka akan lebih lanjut memberikan indikasi pemulihan pada pasar properti AS yang kemungkinan juga akan memberikan dorongan bagi penguatan dolar AS.

Dan Deutsche Bank melaporkan bahwa the ECB is due to publish its third lending survey of the year today.  The survey could provide the ECB with a key piece of evidence to justify additional 3Y LTROs – if lending standards tighten again, another liquidity push may be necessary to avert a harsher credit crunch.  The ECB will publish one more lending survey this year on 31 October.”

Sebelum saya melanjutkan penjelasan tentang pasar emas, saya pikir sebaiknya terlebih dahulu kita ulas sedikit mengenai bursa saham, khususnya indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average dan S&P 500.  Berdasarkan ulasan pekan lalu, ketika saya memberikan warning mengenai aksi jual yang sudah di ambang pintu, saya ingin mempersembahkan artikel yang berjudul “Before You “Buy the Dip,” Look at These Two Charts”.  Penulisnya, Charles Hugh Smith dari Of Two Minds, telah melakukan tugasnya dengan luar biasa untuk mengingatkan kita terhadap segala bahaya dalam mencoba menangkap pisau yang jatuh.  Menurut saya lebih baik aman daripada menyesal kemudian:

“The real economy has entered recession territory, while the stock market is setting up a massive downtrend from QE-juiced highs.

Our Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh recently posted two charts that should give those tempted to “buy the dip” pause.

The first is a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The recent price history has traced out a pattern that looks remarkably similar to the one that presaged the crash of 2008, with one difference: massive quantitative easing and Eurozone bailouts pushed the B leg into an overextension. If this pattern is valid, the C leg down could be a real doozy:

How can we tell the market is ready to roll over on fundamentals? Study the ISM PMI composite readings, which just dropped below 50 into recession territory:

Notice that the S&P 500 stock market index is highly correlated to the Composite. Those who expect stocks to rise despite the PMI Composite cratering will have to explain why “this time it’s different.”

The “buy the dip” crowd is counting on the Federal Reserve to launch a new round of QE (quantitative easing) that will goose the market higher even as the real economy follows the rest of the global economy into recession.

Perhaps, but for how long? Or even more sobering, suppose this entire “b” leg up was the market pricing in QE3 being unleashed on August 1.

The “buy the dip” crowd may well face a new choice: either sell at 12,500, or sell at 10,500.

Thank you, Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh for sharing two of your many insightful charts.”

Sejumlah orang mengatakan emas sedang berada dalam suatu bubble, sementara yang lain mengklaim bahwa uang kertaslah yang sedang bubble sehingga harus diwaspadai dan juga yang paling berbahaya. Jadi mana yang benar? Untuk membantu Anda menjawab pertanyaan ini, saya memiliki tiga tulisan singkat dari beberapa ahli yang benar-benar tahu apa yang mereka bicarakan.

Yang pertama adalah dari Detlev Schlichter, penulis PAPER MONEY COLLAPSE, The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown dan tidak membutuhkan introduksi lebih lanjut dari saya:

“As the gold-skeptics keep reminding us, gold pays no coupon and no dividend, it does not offer a running yield, so traditional measures of ‘fair value’ do not apply.

But gold is money, and just as the paper ticket in your wallet does not pay interest, neither does gold.  Gold is a monetary asset that has functioned as a medium of exchange and a store of value for thousands of years, around the world and in almost all societies and cultures.

Many modern economists believe that gold has now been successfully replaced with state paper money, such as paper dollars, paper euros, paper yen, and so forth.  Holding gold is therefore redundant.  The present crisis is a stark reminder that this faith in fiat money is misplaced.

Gold is still a superior monetary asset.  It is not under the control of any political institution.  It cannot be printed to artificially lower interest rates and to ‘stimulate’ the economy, to create fake booms in financial assets and in real estate, to fund credit growth with printed money rather than true savings, to subsidize the banking sector and then bail it out when the banks overreached, to allow the government to run never-ending budget deficits, to make unfunded promises to voters and fund wars.  Gold is hard, inelastic, apolitical and truly international money.  It does not bow to anybody.  Paper money is a political tool.”

Pada waktu publikasi laporan emas terbarunya di Erste Group Bank (http://www.erstegroup.com) yang berjudul Gold Report 2012 – In GOLD we TRUST Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, yang memiliki gelar Chartered Market Technician (CMT) dan Certified Financial Technician (CFTe), berbicara pada 11 Juli 2012 kepada jurnalis finansial, Lars Schall, mengenai keseluruhan topik fundamental emas. Dan berikut adalah penjelasannya mengenai “Exeter’s Pyramid”:

“The pyramid named after John Exeter (a US economist, former vice president of the Federal Reserve New York and member of the Council on Foreign Relations) shows the liquidity flows between the various asset classes.  In an often-quoted interview (http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/2599701), Exeter expected a deflationary collapse, in the course of which gold would significantly gain in importance. He says that in a deflationary depression, as in an hourglass, liquidity flows from the higher part of the pyramid downwards, amid falling willingness to assume risk (see chart below).

At the upper end, liquidity would dry up due to the lack of buyers and revert from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market.  Since credit is “slumbering mistrust” (Thomas Paine), creditors try to sell the continuously falling number of liquid assets and head for the lower asset classes as a result of their rising risk aversion.  At the bottom end is gold.  Due to the general skepticism the circulation of gold declines, as it is increasingly being hoarded.  The degree of hoarding always depends proportionately on the confidence in the government and the currency.  Gold is never scarce unless it is hoarded – for good reasons – and deliberately hidden.  Since gold does not hinge on any form of IOU, it is the only alternative to paper money and is thus at the bottom of the upside-down pyramid. Or as Alan Greenspan said in 2010: “Fiat money has no place to go but gold.”

Yang tak kalah penting datang dari James Turk, saat wawancaranya dengan King World News pada 25 Juni 2012 mengatakan sejumlah hal yang sangat menarik mengenai bank runs, yang merupakan titik fokus dari the Great Depression dan merupakan bagian dari 3 proses yang paralel hingga saat ini:

“After the 1929 stock market crash, people moved money out of investments and put it into banks.  They wanted the liquidity, and, at first, did not fear for the safety of their money on deposit.  We went through this step with the Lehman Collapse.

As the economy weakened in the 1930s, people started to convert their deposits into cash currency.  This was the second part of the crisis, when fear for the safety of one’s money became more important than liquidity.  We are now at stage two in Europe, and soon will be reaching this stage in the US.  The downgrade of the major US banks, last week, is bringing heightened awareness of the fragility of the US banking system, meaning they are extremely vulnerable to an economic downturn.

Europe’s economy is clearly on a downward path, and economic activity in the US is slowing too.  So the third step of the process might be closer than we think.  That’s when, in the 1930s, people moved out of cash, and into gold.

They did so back then because even though the US dollar was still formally tied to gold, people began to understand that there was more paper outstanding than there was gold in the US reserve.  They believed that the US government could not possibly keep its promise to redeem $20.67 for one ounce of gold, so they moved out of paper currency.

Importantly, they were right.  President Roosevelt eventually devalued the dollar by 69.4%, dropping the gold content of one US dollar from 23.23 grains to 13.71 grains of fine gold.  He adjusted the price of gold from $20.67 an ounce to $35 an ounce.

In the 1930s, if people were lucky enough to get their money out of any of the hundreds of banks that failed, they didn’t want to take any more chances.  They soon realized that the paper currency in their hand wasn’t much safer than when they had their money on deposit in a bank.  The panic to obtain gold or silver marked the bottom of the Great Depression.  The solution was a higher gold price, and that is the same solution needed today.

President Roosevelt knew the solution in the 1930s, and lowered the gold content of the dollar, thereby raising the gold price.  Central planners don’t like that solution because it takes away the power they now have with fiat currencies, backed by nothing but their promises, but a higher gold price is coming nonetheless.  It is the only solution.

Menurut pendapat saya, akhir dari bull market emas ini akan ditandai dengan aksi panic buying. Emas (dan juga perak) akan masuk ke gelembung yang astronomis suatu hari, mungkin gelembung terbesar dalam sejarah keuangan.
Misalnya pada 1980, sejak tahun 1976 emas bergerak dari sekitar level $102, sampai dengan pertengahan Desember 1979, untuk akhirnya mencapai $400. Kemudian dalam 6 pekan terakhir emas melonjak dari $400 hingga $875! Jadi sepertinya efek penggandaan yang akan Anda lihat, tetapi dalam periode waktu yang sangat, sangat singkat. Jika Anda mulai melihat hal tersebut, maka itu adalah tanda sebuah major high, yang saat ini bahkan belum kita dekati.

What Do the Charts Say?

Brett Eversole, analis dari True Wealth Systems, menulis pada 23 April  2012 bahwa Anda sebaiknya jangan mengkhawatirkan koreksi emas belakangan ini. Mengapa demikian? Karena sejarah:

“You see, since gold’s bull market began, the metal has formed three interim tops … May 2006, March 2008, and September 2011.  It took gold prices 16 and 18 months to make new highs after the 2006 and 2008 tops.

It’s been eight months since last September’s $1,900 high in gold prices.  So if we follow history, we can expect gold to make a new high at some point in the next 12 months (see chart below).

Of course, this is no guarantee.  But as Mark Twain famously said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”  Based on history, I’m confident gold will make new highs in the next 12 months.”

Berikutnya, seperti diulas Barclays Senin lalu bahwa data musiman jangka panjang untuk emas memiliki periode bearishness, consolidation, dan bullishness yang sangat jelas.  Nampaknya emas masih dalam masa tenang hingga bulan depan, namun di periode September hingga pertengahan Oktober biasanya secara empiris menjadi bullish.

Berikut adalah grafik dari Barclays mengenai 3 periode bullish emas:

Terakhir datang dari Ronald-Peter Stoeferle yang juga dikatakan dalam Gold Report 2012 – In GOLD we TRUST bahwa kinerja terbaik emas cenderung terjadi pada setiap kuartal akhir dan kuartal pertama.

The profound level of seasonality has been an essential factor in the recent sideways movement of the gold price.  The so-called wedding season and the Diwali festival in India result in a seasonal uptick in demand.  Given that most weddings in India take place in autumn and spring, the jewellery industry stocks up in the third and fourth quarter.  On top of that, jewelers also step up their inventories for Christmas in the third and fourth quarter.  Therefore, gold tends to perform best in the fourth and the first quarter, whereas it would correct substantially in the second quarter and move sideways in the third quarter.

This seasonality has been observed in 75-80% of the cases.  It is also no secret anymore and thus reinforces this development by means of self-fulfilling prophecy.

The following chart supports the notion of seasonality associated with the gold price and the TSX Gold Index.  The time series covers the current bull market since its beginning.  Clearly, the best seasonality starts in August.  Due to the strong seasonality we believe that the gold price should be moving sideways until the end of July.  After that, it should pick up on the back of the aforementioned seasonal effects.  The gold price has increased in September in 65% of the cases.”

Dan apakah Anda tahu cerita dari CNNMoney.com beberapa hari lalu yang berjudul Government Wants More People on Food Stamps:

“More than one in seven Americans are on food stamps, but the federal government wants even more people to sign up for the safety net program.

The department is spending between $2.5-3 million on paid spots, and free public service announcements are also airing.  The campaign can be heard in California, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and the New York metro area.

In fiscal 2011, the federal government spent more than $75 billion on food stamps, up from $34.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2008, according to the USDA.”

Tetapi kalau tidak tahu juga tidak apa-apa, karena mungkin yang berikut dapat membuat Anda tertawa, tertawa dan tertawa …

“The food stamp program, administered by the US Department of Agriculture, is proud to be distributing the greatest amount of free meals and food stamps ever.

Meanwhile, the National Park Service, administered by the US Department of the Interior, asks us to ‘Please Do Not Feed the Animals.’

Their stated reason for the policy is because the animals will grow dependent on handouts and will not learn to take care of themselves.”

Dibuat Tanggal 25 Juli 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 2)

July 26th, 2012 No comments

“Clearly gold is not in a bubble.  It does not follow the pattern of bubbles.  Gold is not widely owned today, which stands in stark contrast to what would be expected if it were in a bubble.  More importantly, instead of gold owners trying to rationalize a high price, people who do not own gold are giving reasons not to own it.  There is a bubble today, but it is not gold.  It is the debt instruments of the US government and indeed, other governments that have also made far too many financial promises.  Many of these promises will be broken and many debts repudiated, but most people do not understand or refuse to accept this reality. Ignoring prudent financial analysis and even the lessons of history, they still believe government debt is a safe haven.”

-James Turk, GoldMoney

Berita paling penting kemarin (23 Juli) terangkum rapi oleh RanSquawk:

  • Spanish region of Murcia plans to apply for up to EUR 300mln of aid, with reports suggesting up to 6 more regions could request assistance; Spanish 10yr yield prints Euro-era record highs at 7.565%.
  • La Stampa writes that ten Italian cities, most notably Naples and Palermo could be facing difficulties meeting their financing needs.  Elsewhere, Italian market regulator CONSOB reintroduces short-selling ban on banking and insurance stocks.
  • Senior executives at the IMF are considering ending their support for Greece, according to reports.

Asian Headlines

According to a central bank adviser, current interest rates in China are appropriate and any further cuts in the second half of this year would be difficult as CPI remains high.  (Caixin.com)

People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee member Quoqing predicts China’s economy may cool to 7.4% GDP this quarter.  (Newswires)

The current government target is for 7.5% GDP growth for this year, and the last GDP reading was 7.6%.

FX

GBP/USD is mirroring the losses in EUR/USD as the USD benefits from safe haven status.  Buying in EUR/GBP has been pinned by some desks as the driver behind much of the moves, explaining the divergence between EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the North American crossover.  Some participants may also be eyeing the key risk event for GBP this week, due on Wednesday, the advanced reading of Q2 GDP from the UK, with many expecting a soft figure, reinforcing the UK’s perceived economic weakness.

Pagi ini (Selasa, 24 Juli 2012) HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) naik ke level 49.5 di bulan Juli dari 48.2 Juni sebelumnya, mendekati level 50 yang merupakan batas tengah antara zona ekspansi dan kontraksi.  Kenaikannya itu didorong oleh lonjakan output sub-index ke level 51.2 – tertinggi sejak Oktober 2011.

“This calls from more easing efforts to support growth and jobs.  We believe the fast falling inflation allows Beijing to do so and a more meaningful improvement of growth is expected in the coming months when these measures fully filter through,” Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with index sponsor, HSBC, said in a statement accompanying the survey.

Selasa ini juga akan dirilis data indeks PMI manufaktur regional Eropa, yang akan memberikan indikasi perkembangan ekonomi dari kondisi sektor jasa dan manufaktur di wilayah zona euro, dan kemungkinan akan memberikan dampak pada nilai tukar EUR/USD serta harga komoditas utama. Reuters memperkirakan rilis 45.3 untuk indeks PMI manufaktur zona euro Juli dari periode sebelumnya 45.1, sementara untuk indeks PMI sektor jasa diperkirakan akan dirilis 47.2 dari 47.1 Juni sebelumnya.

Seperti yang saya katakan kemarin, investor emas harus BERSABAR dalam beberapa pekan perdagangan ke depan.  Namun pada akhirnya saya yakin bahwa kesabaran tersebut akan berbuah di saat harga emas bangkit kembali hingga menembus rekor tertinggi terbarunya.  Ini hanyalah soal waktu karena, sekali lagi, fundamental emas dalam 10 bulan terakhir tidaklah buruk.  Namun sebaliknya saya harus katakan bahwa sejumlah faktor justru mendukung emas untuk terus menguat.

Salah satau faktor utamanya datang dari Cina, dimana consumer demand meningkat 10% ke level tertinggi terbarunya untuk basis kuartalan sebesar 255,2 ton, demikian ditunjukkan oleh laporan kuartal pertama 2012 Gold Demand Trends dari World Gold Council.  Selain itu, konsumen di Cina merupakan pembeli aktif perhiasan emas di kuartal pertama lalu, yang mencapai sebesar 156,6 ton atau memberikan kontribusi 30% dari demand perhiasan global, demikian menurut World Gold Council.  Dan itu merupakan kenaikannya sebesar 8% untuk basis tahunan karena dugaan peningkatan level pendapatan masyarakat di Cina.

Sebagai contoh Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com pada 10 Juli lalu melaporkan bahwa Cina lebih banyak mengimpor emas dari Hong Kong dalam 5 bulan terakhir daripada  seluruh kepemilikan emas Inggris. Berikut adalah sejumlah kutipan dari artikel tersebut disertai dengan grafik yang sangat  bagus:

“There are those who say gold may go to $10,000 or to $0, or somewhere in between; in a different universe, they would be the people furiously staring at the trees.  For a quick look at the forest, we suggest readers have a glance at the chart below.  It shows that just in first five months of 2012 alone, China has imported more gold, a total of 315 tons, than all the official gold holdings of the UK, at 310.3 according to the WGC/IMF (a country which infamously sold 400 tons of gold by Gordon Brown at ~$275/ounce).

From Bloomberg:

In May, imports by China from Hong Kong jumped sixfold to 75,635.7 kilograms (75.6 metric tons) from a year earlier, Hong Kong government data showed.  The nation “remains the most important player on the global gold market,” Commerzbank AG said in a report.

The World Gold Council has forecast that China will top India this year as the world’s largest consumer because rising incomes will bolster demand.

So: is gold fairly valued at $1,000, at $1,600 or at $10,000 …  Or is that question even relevant any more as the part of the world that is not broke is quietly shifting to it as its default currency?”

Dalam tulisan yang berjudul China Will Blink and Gold Will Soar, oleh Michael Krieger di blog A Lightning War On Liberty ada beberapa pemikiran yang sangat menarik mengenai pelonggaran moneter di Cina dan dampaknya pada harga logam mulia. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya:

“To illustrate the point.  Take a look at China’s M2 Monthly year-over-year growth in the chart below.  Do you really think they are going to allow that trend to continue?  If they do what do you think the implications are for the world?  For the U.S.?  Want to bet on decoupling?  I don’t.

China’s M2 Monthly year-over-year growth

The big point is that China will act and in a meaningful way. What I suggest people do is go back and look at different asset classes from the prior two lows in China’s M2 year-over-year growth rate. The first one occurred in late 2004.  The M2 growth rate then accelerated until around mid 2006.  In that time period gold prices went up around 65% and the S&P 500 went up 20%.  In the second period of acceleration from late 2008 to late 2009 gold was up 65% and the S&P500 was up 15%.  We are at one of these inflection points and considering the DOW/Gold ratio is still holding gains from its countertrend rally from last August of almost 40%, this is probably one of the best entry points to buy gold and short the Dow of any time in the last decade.  Oh and if you want more juice, when China blinks silver does much, much better than gold…”

What Do the Charts Say?

Ada orang-orang yang (sangat) bearish terhadap emas dan yang lainnya (begitu) bullish terhadapnya.  Salah satu orang yang bearish terhadap emas saat ini adalah Bob Prechter dari Elliott Wave InternationalGlobal Market Perspective edisi Juli 2012 mengetengahkan komentar-komentar berikut mengenai emas:

“On June 20, the US Federal Reserve announced the extension until year end of Operation Twist.  Under this program, it buys long-term Treasury securities and sells an equal amount of short-duration Treasuries in order to spur lending via lower, long-term interest rates.  At the same time, the Fed said it was “prepared to take further action” to promote stronger economic growth, implying to bulls an impending QE3.  If the Fed truly possessed ultimate power, this announcement would have turned out to be manna from heaven for gold bulls, as it would have meant increased credit creation.

On the next day of trading, however, gold declined 2.6%, its largest daily percentage sell-off since the big reversal from a February 29 countertrend rally high at $1791.16.  Prices are nearing the big support shelf at $1527, as shown on the chart.  Why did gold decline in the wake of the Fed’s extension of Operation Twist and promises of further action?  Is the market beginning to recognize that the US central bank’s alleged money-printing prowess is a grand illusion?  A meaningful break of the support shelf should lead to an acceleration lower and panic in the hard-money camp.”

The Fundamental View juga pesimistis, dan mengatakan bahwa jika $1,535 “level is breached on a closing basis, or if it falls significantly through that level, then the next potential stopping point for gold could be at the $1,300.00 level.”

Hal tersebut tidak mengeluarkan emas dari jalur kenaikannya karena level $1,300 masih merupakan bottom range emas dari trendline kenaikannya selama 10 tahun (lihat grafik di bawah ini).

Dikatakannya pula bahwa “the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play but is admittedly looking uglier and less proportional as each day passes.  Although I feel it is unlikely to play out, gold cannot fall below $1,535 if we are to keep that pattern in play.”

Namun dia memberikan catatan bahwa death cross – ketika garis MA-50 hari memotong ke bawah garis MA-200 hari, yang terjadi di pertengahan April – “usually implies that the trend has officially reversed indicating that further declines are very likely.  Not until the 50-day cross back above the 200-day in what is known as the golden cross, will I be going heavily long.”

Dan seperti biasa, berikut adalah lelucon yang mungkin bisa membuat Anda tertawa, kecuali tentunya jika Anda seorang ekonom:

Q: How many economists does it take to change a light bulb?

A: None.  If it really needed changing, market forces would have caused it to happen.

Sebelum mengakhiri tulisan ini, saya ingin menambahkan satu hal: Apapun yang terjadi di pasar, sebaiknya Anda tetap TENANG dan DINGIN! Selamat menikmati hari dan tetaplah berhati-hati …

Dibuat Tanggal 24 Juli 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 1)

July 24th, 2012 No comments

“For over five thousand years, gold has represented purchasing power. No matter what form of money was in existence at the time, gold possessed purchasing power, which is why many wise men own gold.  If I asked you to leave something for your great grandkids in a package to be opened one hundred years from now, would you leave them a wad of hundred dollar bills or one hundred gold coins?  If you had any brains you would pick the gold coins.  I’d venture that Warren Buffett would also pick the coins.  Why?  Because we know that one hundred years from now the gold coins would represent value and purchasing power and the dollar might not exist.  End of story.”

-Richard Russell…04 May 2012

Pada akhir pekan lalu fokus para investor kembali tertuju ke Spanyol dan Yunani.  Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com juga demikian dan membuat 3 uraian singkat berikut ini, yang menjelaskan mengapa euro tertekan hingga ke rekor terendahnya dan saham-saham AS (maupun Eropa) merosot di hari Jumat:

  1. With Valencia bust, Spanish bonds at all-time record spreads to bunds, and yields at euro-era record highs, Spain’s access to public markets for more debt is as good as closed.  What is most concerning however, as FAZ reports, is that “the money will last [only] until September”, and “Spain has no ‘Plan B”.  Friday’s market meltdown – especially at the front-end of the Spanish curve – is now being dubbed ‘Black Friday’ and the desperation is clear among the Spanish elite.  Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo attacked the ECB for their inaction in the SMP (bond-buying program) as they do “nothing to stop the fire of the [Spanish] government debt” and when asked how he saw the future of the European Union, he replied that it could “not go on much longer.”  The protest rallies continue to gather pace as Black Friday saw the gravely concerned union-leaders (facing worrying austerity) calling for a second general strike (yeah – that will help) as they warn of a ‘hot autumn’.  It appears Spain has skipped ‘worse’ and gone from bad to worst as they work “to ensure that financial liabilities do not poison the national debt” – a little late we hesitate to point out.
  2. It appears that following the resignation letter fiasco from Friday, the venerable IMF is trying to regain some level of credibility in the world.  In a note obtained by SPIEGEL, senior IMF officials’ patience has clearly come to an end and has decided that, with Greece likely to go bust by September, it is no longer willing to provide additional Greek aid (we assume in light of the push-backs on the promised cuts that the aid was based upon).  Pointing to this now being a euro-zone problem, their cessation of Greek aid is even more critical since both Holland and Finland pledged support because the IMF was involved.  August 20th marks an important short-term hurdle as Greece is required to pay back EUR3.8bn to the ECB – and with collateral being withdrawn, we wonder how long before the ECB pulls the plug entirely – even on Greek T-Bills.  Whether this is sabre-rattling before the delayed TROIKA visit or the IMF (and the rest of the TROIKA) indeed deciding enough is enough and realizing finally that more debt (or even maturity extensions) does not solve the problem of too much debt – only default will do that!
  3. EURUSD is down over 50 pips from Friday’s close, about to test a 1.20 handle for the first time in over 25 months, as headlines pour from the beleaguered disunion.  The AP reports of the German vice-chancellor’s “more than skeptical” view that Greece can fulfill its obligations; after which “there can be no further payments” seemingly confirms our earlier note on the IMF’s reluctance (and dismisses any hope that the IMF call for more ECB ‘assistance’ will go unheeded.  More worrisome is the Athens News story on Alexis Tsipras (leader of the Greek Syriza party) forecasting that the government will “soon present a return to a national currency (drachma) as a national success.” He went on to state rather honestly for a politician that any payment extension (of the already re-negotiated TROIKA deal) is “essentially a longer rope with which to hang ourselves.”  The elite-perpetuating status-quo-sustaining unreality is summed up perfectly as he notes the Greek finance minister is the definition of a finance minister that the TROIKA would have chosen.  Germany’s Roesler adds a little fuel to the conflagration by adding that “for many experts, … a Greek exit from the euro zone has long since lost its horror.

Seperti yang telah dijanjikan, pekan ini saya akan memberikan pandangan lebih rinci mengenai pasar emas karena – menurut saya – memberikan peluang keuntungan jangka panjang yang luar biasa.

Dalam 3 bulan terakhir ini emas diperdagangkan dalam kisaran $150, hampir sepenuhnya mengikuti nilai tukar euro/dollar, sebagai sebuah key price driver, karena masih menantikan arah yang lebih jelas mengenai kebijakan moneter AS.  Sepanjang tahun 2012 berjalan ini, emas telah naik 1,5 persen setelah terjadi tekanan signifikan sejak Januari saat emas mengalami kenaikan 15 persen setelah the Fed menyatakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga nol persennya setidaknya hingga akhir tahun 2014.

“Gold can go down if investors feel like Bernanke is falling behind the curve.  That was the scenario which happened in 2008 when gold started correcting until it basically pulled out all the stops,” demikian menurut Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist untuk Channel Capital Research.  Rilis yang mengecewakan pada data nonfarm payrolls AS dan indikasi lemahnya perekonomian global meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa deflasi akan menekan harga emas dengan tajam.  Pada tahun 2008, emas merosot seketika hingga lebih dari 30 persen saat terjadinya krisis ekonomi global.

Maka pertanyaan yang muncul di benak setiap orang saat ini adalah apakah emas akan merosot signifikan seperti tahun 2008, atau malah melonjak karena eskalasi krisis utang Eropa.  Menurut pendapat saya (tentu saja ini bisa keliru) emas hanya terkonsolidasi setelah kenaikannya di tahun 2011. Saat emas mengalami sebuah kenaikan besar, seperti yang terjadi di periode hingga Mei 2006 dan Februari 2008, setelah itu akan mengalami konsolidasi panjang yang bisa menimbulkan frustrasi untuk mereka yang optimis.

Pada akhirnya KESABARAN-lah yang dibutuhkan untuk mengatasi kondisi pasar yang “membosankan” ini.  Rick Rule, pendiri Global Resource Investments, juga berpikiran bahwa para investor seharusnya tetap mempertahankan kepemilikan emas mereka dan mengabaikan fluktuasi harga pasar harian.  Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam 2 wawancara terpisah dengan King World News:

“Investors can make money in this environment, but they are going to have to be patient and disciplined.  What would really help is a strong downside washout, instead of the grinding bear market that we’ve been having.  This would mean a market clearing event.  The prices we’ve seen, so far, have not been sufficient to produce a turnaround.

For investors who are frustrated, past is probably prologue.  They need to have a sense of what happened in the 1970s market.  If you go back to that bull market, you will remember there were numerous occasions, probably 25 or 30 in that decade, where the precious metals prices fell 10% or 15%.  The equities associated with gold and silver fell even further.

The granddaddy of all of those declines was in 1975.  Now, what’s instructive to know is that nothing changed with regards to the fundamentals for gold and silver.  What changed was the official sector’s interest rates and people’s perceptions of the value of gold and silver.

If you were in the market and had the cash and the courage to stay in the market from peak to trough, that is from the bottom of 1975 decline, five years later you were up eight-fold.  It’s tragic that some people had the idea behind the bull market, but didn’t have the cash or the courage to stay the trade.  Can you imagine getting shaken out of a trade where you were right, and then missing five years of an eight-fold advance?

So, for people who are frustrated with the volatility in this market, especially the downside volatility, simply remember that what is changing are people’s attitudes, not the fundamentals.  The market doesn’t care if you are frustrated.  The market doesn’t care about your time frame.

The market doesn’t care about anything.  The market is merely a facility for buying and selling assets.  If you have the courage of your convictions, if you believe, as an example, that gold is a better store of wealth than fiat currencies, then stay the trade.”

Bahkan Chris Martenson, ekonom independen serta pendiri dari sebuah website terkenal www.PeakProsperity.com, menyimpulkan mengapa saat ini menyerupai tahun 2008 serta kemana kecenderungan harga emas akan bergerak setelah ini:

“While I personally would not part with my gold these days, and certainly not at these prices, I do expect the price of gold to drop going forward.

The reason is that gold has multiple elements contributing to its price, and some of that is attributable to the speculation and rampant liquidity that is sloshing through the system.  Various hedge funds and other speculative funds are holding quite a bit of gold, mainly the paper variety, and when they dump that because the tables have turned and/or their liquidity sources have dried up, they will sell that paper gold and the apparent price will go down.

However, it is my strongest contention that this will represent a very nice buying opportunity.  Someday, nobody knows when, the central banks will announce another big round of thin-air money printing and that will be a turning point in the price of gold (and many other things, including stocks and commodities).”

Akhirnya Stephen Leeb, Chairman dan Chief Investment Officer pada Leeb Capital Management, kepada King World News baru-baru ini mengatakan bahwa pasar finansial global sedang dalam situasi yang sangat tidak stabil. Leeb juga menambahkan bahwa investor harus siap jika melihat lebih banyak ‘peristiwa yang penuh gejolak’ ke depannya:

“We are in a real mess and it cannot be sorted out in any meaningful way.  It’s a matter of when people wake up and start fleeing towards gold.  I assure you that five years from now, when you look at this period (in gold), it won’t look like anything on the chart.  But living through this kind of pain is very difficult because you see how it’s going to work out, but you don’t see the exact timing …

You may see a situation where gold is at $1,400, and then two months later it’s at $2,500.  That’s just one of many possible scenarios.  We don’t know the bottom for sure right now, but one thing is certain, you are going to see new highs in gold.  Investors just need to hang in there.”

Seperti yang Anda dapat lihat, mayoritas para analis emas sepakat bahwa kita akan melihat sebuah koreksi pada harga emas dalam beberapa pekan ke depan, namun mereka juga yakin bahwa emas memberikan peluang bagus untuk buy on weakness.  Dengan kata lain, meskipun emas kemungkinan akan mengalami tekanan dalam jangka pendek, untuk jangka panjang ke depan memiliki harapan yang lebih cerah karena kondisi fundamentalnya sama sekali belum berubah.

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada tulisan yang berjudul Can Gold’s Luster Be Restored This Summer, Clif Droke yang merupakan seorang editor dari Momentum Strategies Report, sebuah newsletter yang terbit 3 kali dalam sepekan, menjelaskan mengapa konsolidasi di pasar emas kemungkinan besar akan berlanjut serta menjelaskan hal apa yang bisa mendorong kenaikan harga emas pada akhirnya:

“Gold is already technically “oversold” on a longer-term basis as we’ve discussed in recent commentaries.  The 10-month price oscillator for gold has registered its most sold out reading for gold in 10 years (see chart below).  While this is an important consideration for serious longer-term investors, it hasn’t done anything to attract the “hot money” crowd.

It’s evident that investors are “waiting for some type of economic or political market event”.  Whether that market event is catalyzed by yet another crisis in Europe or the announcement of a major monetary stimulus program by the US or European central bank is immaterial.  The market (and by market I mean the typical retail investor and momentum trader) is waiting for gold to respond to an extra-market headline event.  And it’s doubtful that gold will be shaken out of its torpor until this event occurs.

There are two major components of the gold price.  The first one is monetary, the second is emotional.  Both have served as powerful catalysts to a gold rally in the recent past.  The monetary component is obvious to most observers in that a sizable increase in monetary liquidity tends to increase the gold price.  The emotional component is mainly driven by fear – whether fear of a dollar collapse or some other market-related or political fear.  Right now the fear element is muted since investors are too busy chasing high-yielding stocks to worry about impending economic collapse.  The dollar has actually strengthened in the past year (see chart below), which gives investors even less reason to pile into gold.  Until investors are given a serious reason for concern, they are likely to continue ignoring gold.”

Di akhir laporan ini seperti biasa saya ketengahkan sebuah happy note dan karena suatu gambar yang rusak bernilai seribu essay para ekonom bergelar PhD, berikut adalah Keynesianism for Kretins:

(h/t Simon Black at Sovereign Man Blog)

Dibuat Tanggal 23 Juli 2012

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