Home > Emas > Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 1)

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 1)

“For over five thousand years, gold has represented purchasing power. No matter what form of money was in existence at the time, gold possessed purchasing power, which is why many wise men own gold.  If I asked you to leave something for your great grandkids in a package to be opened one hundred years from now, would you leave them a wad of hundred dollar bills or one hundred gold coins?  If you had any brains you would pick the gold coins.  I’d venture that Warren Buffett would also pick the coins.  Why?  Because we know that one hundred years from now the gold coins would represent value and purchasing power and the dollar might not exist.  End of story.”

-Richard Russell…04 May 2012

Pada akhir pekan lalu fokus para investor kembali tertuju ke Spanyol dan Yunani.  Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com juga demikian dan membuat 3 uraian singkat berikut ini, yang menjelaskan mengapa euro tertekan hingga ke rekor terendahnya dan saham-saham AS (maupun Eropa) merosot di hari Jumat:

  1. With Valencia bust, Spanish bonds at all-time record spreads to bunds, and yields at euro-era record highs, Spain’s access to public markets for more debt is as good as closed.  What is most concerning however, as FAZ reports, is that “the money will last [only] until September”, and “Spain has no ‘Plan B”.  Friday’s market meltdown – especially at the front-end of the Spanish curve – is now being dubbed ‘Black Friday’ and the desperation is clear among the Spanish elite.  Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo attacked the ECB for their inaction in the SMP (bond-buying program) as they do “nothing to stop the fire of the [Spanish] government debt” and when asked how he saw the future of the European Union, he replied that it could “not go on much longer.”  The protest rallies continue to gather pace as Black Friday saw the gravely concerned union-leaders (facing worrying austerity) calling for a second general strike (yeah – that will help) as they warn of a ‘hot autumn’.  It appears Spain has skipped ‘worse’ and gone from bad to worst as they work “to ensure that financial liabilities do not poison the national debt” – a little late we hesitate to point out.
  2. It appears that following the resignation letter fiasco from Friday, the venerable IMF is trying to regain some level of credibility in the world.  In a note obtained by SPIEGEL, senior IMF officials’ patience has clearly come to an end and has decided that, with Greece likely to go bust by September, it is no longer willing to provide additional Greek aid (we assume in light of the push-backs on the promised cuts that the aid was based upon).  Pointing to this now being a euro-zone problem, their cessation of Greek aid is even more critical since both Holland and Finland pledged support because the IMF was involved.  August 20th marks an important short-term hurdle as Greece is required to pay back EUR3.8bn to the ECB – and with collateral being withdrawn, we wonder how long before the ECB pulls the plug entirely – even on Greek T-Bills.  Whether this is sabre-rattling before the delayed TROIKA visit or the IMF (and the rest of the TROIKA) indeed deciding enough is enough and realizing finally that more debt (or even maturity extensions) does not solve the problem of too much debt – only default will do that!
  3. EURUSD is down over 50 pips from Friday’s close, about to test a 1.20 handle for the first time in over 25 months, as headlines pour from the beleaguered disunion.  The AP reports of the German vice-chancellor’s “more than skeptical” view that Greece can fulfill its obligations; after which “there can be no further payments” seemingly confirms our earlier note on the IMF’s reluctance (and dismisses any hope that the IMF call for more ECB ‘assistance’ will go unheeded.  More worrisome is the Athens News story on Alexis Tsipras (leader of the Greek Syriza party) forecasting that the government will “soon present a return to a national currency (drachma) as a national success.” He went on to state rather honestly for a politician that any payment extension (of the already re-negotiated TROIKA deal) is “essentially a longer rope with which to hang ourselves.”  The elite-perpetuating status-quo-sustaining unreality is summed up perfectly as he notes the Greek finance minister is the definition of a finance minister that the TROIKA would have chosen.  Germany’s Roesler adds a little fuel to the conflagration by adding that “for many experts, … a Greek exit from the euro zone has long since lost its horror.

Seperti yang telah dijanjikan, pekan ini saya akan memberikan pandangan lebih rinci mengenai pasar emas karena – menurut saya – memberikan peluang keuntungan jangka panjang yang luar biasa.

Dalam 3 bulan terakhir ini emas diperdagangkan dalam kisaran $150, hampir sepenuhnya mengikuti nilai tukar euro/dollar, sebagai sebuah key price driver, karena masih menantikan arah yang lebih jelas mengenai kebijakan moneter AS.  Sepanjang tahun 2012 berjalan ini, emas telah naik 1,5 persen setelah terjadi tekanan signifikan sejak Januari saat emas mengalami kenaikan 15 persen setelah the Fed menyatakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga nol persennya setidaknya hingga akhir tahun 2014.

“Gold can go down if investors feel like Bernanke is falling behind the curve.  That was the scenario which happened in 2008 when gold started correcting until it basically pulled out all the stops,” demikian menurut Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist untuk Channel Capital Research.  Rilis yang mengecewakan pada data nonfarm payrolls AS dan indikasi lemahnya perekonomian global meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa deflasi akan menekan harga emas dengan tajam.  Pada tahun 2008, emas merosot seketika hingga lebih dari 30 persen saat terjadinya krisis ekonomi global.

Maka pertanyaan yang muncul di benak setiap orang saat ini adalah apakah emas akan merosot signifikan seperti tahun 2008, atau malah melonjak karena eskalasi krisis utang Eropa.  Menurut pendapat saya (tentu saja ini bisa keliru) emas hanya terkonsolidasi setelah kenaikannya di tahun 2011. Saat emas mengalami sebuah kenaikan besar, seperti yang terjadi di periode hingga Mei 2006 dan Februari 2008, setelah itu akan mengalami konsolidasi panjang yang bisa menimbulkan frustrasi untuk mereka yang optimis.

Pada akhirnya KESABARAN-lah yang dibutuhkan untuk mengatasi kondisi pasar yang “membosankan” ini.  Rick Rule, pendiri Global Resource Investments, juga berpikiran bahwa para investor seharusnya tetap mempertahankan kepemilikan emas mereka dan mengabaikan fluktuasi harga pasar harian.  Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam 2 wawancara terpisah dengan King World News:

“Investors can make money in this environment, but they are going to have to be patient and disciplined.  What would really help is a strong downside washout, instead of the grinding bear market that we’ve been having.  This would mean a market clearing event.  The prices we’ve seen, so far, have not been sufficient to produce a turnaround.

For investors who are frustrated, past is probably prologue.  They need to have a sense of what happened in the 1970s market.  If you go back to that bull market, you will remember there were numerous occasions, probably 25 or 30 in that decade, where the precious metals prices fell 10% or 15%.  The equities associated with gold and silver fell even further.

The granddaddy of all of those declines was in 1975.  Now, what’s instructive to know is that nothing changed with regards to the fundamentals for gold and silver.  What changed was the official sector’s interest rates and people’s perceptions of the value of gold and silver.

If you were in the market and had the cash and the courage to stay in the market from peak to trough, that is from the bottom of 1975 decline, five years later you were up eight-fold.  It’s tragic that some people had the idea behind the bull market, but didn’t have the cash or the courage to stay the trade.  Can you imagine getting shaken out of a trade where you were right, and then missing five years of an eight-fold advance?

So, for people who are frustrated with the volatility in this market, especially the downside volatility, simply remember that what is changing are people’s attitudes, not the fundamentals.  The market doesn’t care if you are frustrated.  The market doesn’t care about your time frame.

The market doesn’t care about anything.  The market is merely a facility for buying and selling assets.  If you have the courage of your convictions, if you believe, as an example, that gold is a better store of wealth than fiat currencies, then stay the trade.”

Bahkan Chris Martenson, ekonom independen serta pendiri dari sebuah website terkenal www.PeakProsperity.com, menyimpulkan mengapa saat ini menyerupai tahun 2008 serta kemana kecenderungan harga emas akan bergerak setelah ini:

“While I personally would not part with my gold these days, and certainly not at these prices, I do expect the price of gold to drop going forward.

The reason is that gold has multiple elements contributing to its price, and some of that is attributable to the speculation and rampant liquidity that is sloshing through the system.  Various hedge funds and other speculative funds are holding quite a bit of gold, mainly the paper variety, and when they dump that because the tables have turned and/or their liquidity sources have dried up, they will sell that paper gold and the apparent price will go down.

However, it is my strongest contention that this will represent a very nice buying opportunity.  Someday, nobody knows when, the central banks will announce another big round of thin-air money printing and that will be a turning point in the price of gold (and many other things, including stocks and commodities).”

Akhirnya Stephen Leeb, Chairman dan Chief Investment Officer pada Leeb Capital Management, kepada King World News baru-baru ini mengatakan bahwa pasar finansial global sedang dalam situasi yang sangat tidak stabil. Leeb juga menambahkan bahwa investor harus siap jika melihat lebih banyak ‘peristiwa yang penuh gejolak’ ke depannya:

“We are in a real mess and it cannot be sorted out in any meaningful way.  It’s a matter of when people wake up and start fleeing towards gold.  I assure you that five years from now, when you look at this period (in gold), it won’t look like anything on the chart.  But living through this kind of pain is very difficult because you see how it’s going to work out, but you don’t see the exact timing …

You may see a situation where gold is at $1,400, and then two months later it’s at $2,500.  That’s just one of many possible scenarios.  We don’t know the bottom for sure right now, but one thing is certain, you are going to see new highs in gold.  Investors just need to hang in there.”

Seperti yang Anda dapat lihat, mayoritas para analis emas sepakat bahwa kita akan melihat sebuah koreksi pada harga emas dalam beberapa pekan ke depan, namun mereka juga yakin bahwa emas memberikan peluang bagus untuk buy on weakness.  Dengan kata lain, meskipun emas kemungkinan akan mengalami tekanan dalam jangka pendek, untuk jangka panjang ke depan memiliki harapan yang lebih cerah karena kondisi fundamentalnya sama sekali belum berubah.

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada tulisan yang berjudul Can Gold’s Luster Be Restored This Summer, Clif Droke yang merupakan seorang editor dari Momentum Strategies Report, sebuah newsletter yang terbit 3 kali dalam sepekan, menjelaskan mengapa konsolidasi di pasar emas kemungkinan besar akan berlanjut serta menjelaskan hal apa yang bisa mendorong kenaikan harga emas pada akhirnya:

“Gold is already technically “oversold” on a longer-term basis as we’ve discussed in recent commentaries.  The 10-month price oscillator for gold has registered its most sold out reading for gold in 10 years (see chart below).  While this is an important consideration for serious longer-term investors, it hasn’t done anything to attract the “hot money” crowd.

It’s evident that investors are “waiting for some type of economic or political market event”.  Whether that market event is catalyzed by yet another crisis in Europe or the announcement of a major monetary stimulus program by the US or European central bank is immaterial.  The market (and by market I mean the typical retail investor and momentum trader) is waiting for gold to respond to an extra-market headline event.  And it’s doubtful that gold will be shaken out of its torpor until this event occurs.

There are two major components of the gold price.  The first one is monetary, the second is emotional.  Both have served as powerful catalysts to a gold rally in the recent past.  The monetary component is obvious to most observers in that a sizable increase in monetary liquidity tends to increase the gold price.  The emotional component is mainly driven by fear – whether fear of a dollar collapse or some other market-related or political fear.  Right now the fear element is muted since investors are too busy chasing high-yielding stocks to worry about impending economic collapse.  The dollar has actually strengthened in the past year (see chart below), which gives investors even less reason to pile into gold.  Until investors are given a serious reason for concern, they are likely to continue ignoring gold.”

Di akhir laporan ini seperti biasa saya ketengahkan sebuah happy note dan karena suatu gambar yang rusak bernilai seribu essay para ekonom bergelar PhD, berikut adalah Keynesianism for Kretins:

(h/t Simon Black at Sovereign Man Blog)

Dibuat Tanggal 23 Juli 2012

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