Home > Emas > Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 2)

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 2)

“Clearly gold is not in a bubble.  It does not follow the pattern of bubbles.  Gold is not widely owned today, which stands in stark contrast to what would be expected if it were in a bubble.  More importantly, instead of gold owners trying to rationalize a high price, people who do not own gold are giving reasons not to own it.  There is a bubble today, but it is not gold.  It is the debt instruments of the US government and indeed, other governments that have also made far too many financial promises.  Many of these promises will be broken and many debts repudiated, but most people do not understand or refuse to accept this reality. Ignoring prudent financial analysis and even the lessons of history, they still believe government debt is a safe haven.”

-James Turk, GoldMoney

Berita paling penting kemarin (23 Juli) terangkum rapi oleh RanSquawk:

  • Spanish region of Murcia plans to apply for up to EUR 300mln of aid, with reports suggesting up to 6 more regions could request assistance; Spanish 10yr yield prints Euro-era record highs at 7.565%.
  • La Stampa writes that ten Italian cities, most notably Naples and Palermo could be facing difficulties meeting their financing needs.  Elsewhere, Italian market regulator CONSOB reintroduces short-selling ban on banking and insurance stocks.
  • Senior executives at the IMF are considering ending their support for Greece, according to reports.

Asian Headlines

According to a central bank adviser, current interest rates in China are appropriate and any further cuts in the second half of this year would be difficult as CPI remains high.  (Caixin.com)

People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee member Quoqing predicts China’s economy may cool to 7.4% GDP this quarter.  (Newswires)

The current government target is for 7.5% GDP growth for this year, and the last GDP reading was 7.6%.

FX

GBP/USD is mirroring the losses in EUR/USD as the USD benefits from safe haven status.  Buying in EUR/GBP has been pinned by some desks as the driver behind much of the moves, explaining the divergence between EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the North American crossover.  Some participants may also be eyeing the key risk event for GBP this week, due on Wednesday, the advanced reading of Q2 GDP from the UK, with many expecting a soft figure, reinforcing the UK’s perceived economic weakness.

Pagi ini (Selasa, 24 Juli 2012) HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) naik ke level 49.5 di bulan Juli dari 48.2 Juni sebelumnya, mendekati level 50 yang merupakan batas tengah antara zona ekspansi dan kontraksi.  Kenaikannya itu didorong oleh lonjakan output sub-index ke level 51.2 – tertinggi sejak Oktober 2011.

“This calls from more easing efforts to support growth and jobs.  We believe the fast falling inflation allows Beijing to do so and a more meaningful improvement of growth is expected in the coming months when these measures fully filter through,” Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with index sponsor, HSBC, said in a statement accompanying the survey.

Selasa ini juga akan dirilis data indeks PMI manufaktur regional Eropa, yang akan memberikan indikasi perkembangan ekonomi dari kondisi sektor jasa dan manufaktur di wilayah zona euro, dan kemungkinan akan memberikan dampak pada nilai tukar EUR/USD serta harga komoditas utama. Reuters memperkirakan rilis 45.3 untuk indeks PMI manufaktur zona euro Juli dari periode sebelumnya 45.1, sementara untuk indeks PMI sektor jasa diperkirakan akan dirilis 47.2 dari 47.1 Juni sebelumnya.

Seperti yang saya katakan kemarin, investor emas harus BERSABAR dalam beberapa pekan perdagangan ke depan.  Namun pada akhirnya saya yakin bahwa kesabaran tersebut akan berbuah di saat harga emas bangkit kembali hingga menembus rekor tertinggi terbarunya.  Ini hanyalah soal waktu karena, sekali lagi, fundamental emas dalam 10 bulan terakhir tidaklah buruk.  Namun sebaliknya saya harus katakan bahwa sejumlah faktor justru mendukung emas untuk terus menguat.

Salah satau faktor utamanya datang dari Cina, dimana consumer demand meningkat 10% ke level tertinggi terbarunya untuk basis kuartalan sebesar 255,2 ton, demikian ditunjukkan oleh laporan kuartal pertama 2012 Gold Demand Trends dari World Gold Council.  Selain itu, konsumen di Cina merupakan pembeli aktif perhiasan emas di kuartal pertama lalu, yang mencapai sebesar 156,6 ton atau memberikan kontribusi 30% dari demand perhiasan global, demikian menurut World Gold Council.  Dan itu merupakan kenaikannya sebesar 8% untuk basis tahunan karena dugaan peningkatan level pendapatan masyarakat di Cina.

Sebagai contoh Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com pada 10 Juli lalu melaporkan bahwa Cina lebih banyak mengimpor emas dari Hong Kong dalam 5 bulan terakhir daripada  seluruh kepemilikan emas Inggris. Berikut adalah sejumlah kutipan dari artikel tersebut disertai dengan grafik yang sangat  bagus:

“There are those who say gold may go to $10,000 or to $0, or somewhere in between; in a different universe, they would be the people furiously staring at the trees.  For a quick look at the forest, we suggest readers have a glance at the chart below.  It shows that just in first five months of 2012 alone, China has imported more gold, a total of 315 tons, than all the official gold holdings of the UK, at 310.3 according to the WGC/IMF (a country which infamously sold 400 tons of gold by Gordon Brown at ~$275/ounce).

From Bloomberg:

In May, imports by China from Hong Kong jumped sixfold to 75,635.7 kilograms (75.6 metric tons) from a year earlier, Hong Kong government data showed.  The nation “remains the most important player on the global gold market,” Commerzbank AG said in a report.

The World Gold Council has forecast that China will top India this year as the world’s largest consumer because rising incomes will bolster demand.

So: is gold fairly valued at $1,000, at $1,600 or at $10,000 …  Or is that question even relevant any more as the part of the world that is not broke is quietly shifting to it as its default currency?”

Dalam tulisan yang berjudul China Will Blink and Gold Will Soar, oleh Michael Krieger di blog A Lightning War On Liberty ada beberapa pemikiran yang sangat menarik mengenai pelonggaran moneter di Cina dan dampaknya pada harga logam mulia. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya:

“To illustrate the point.  Take a look at China’s M2 Monthly year-over-year growth in the chart below.  Do you really think they are going to allow that trend to continue?  If they do what do you think the implications are for the world?  For the U.S.?  Want to bet on decoupling?  I don’t.

China’s M2 Monthly year-over-year growth

The big point is that China will act and in a meaningful way. What I suggest people do is go back and look at different asset classes from the prior two lows in China’s M2 year-over-year growth rate. The first one occurred in late 2004.  The M2 growth rate then accelerated until around mid 2006.  In that time period gold prices went up around 65% and the S&P 500 went up 20%.  In the second period of acceleration from late 2008 to late 2009 gold was up 65% and the S&P500 was up 15%.  We are at one of these inflection points and considering the DOW/Gold ratio is still holding gains from its countertrend rally from last August of almost 40%, this is probably one of the best entry points to buy gold and short the Dow of any time in the last decade.  Oh and if you want more juice, when China blinks silver does much, much better than gold…”

What Do the Charts Say?

Ada orang-orang yang (sangat) bearish terhadap emas dan yang lainnya (begitu) bullish terhadapnya.  Salah satu orang yang bearish terhadap emas saat ini adalah Bob Prechter dari Elliott Wave InternationalGlobal Market Perspective edisi Juli 2012 mengetengahkan komentar-komentar berikut mengenai emas:

“On June 20, the US Federal Reserve announced the extension until year end of Operation Twist.  Under this program, it buys long-term Treasury securities and sells an equal amount of short-duration Treasuries in order to spur lending via lower, long-term interest rates.  At the same time, the Fed said it was “prepared to take further action” to promote stronger economic growth, implying to bulls an impending QE3.  If the Fed truly possessed ultimate power, this announcement would have turned out to be manna from heaven for gold bulls, as it would have meant increased credit creation.

On the next day of trading, however, gold declined 2.6%, its largest daily percentage sell-off since the big reversal from a February 29 countertrend rally high at $1791.16.  Prices are nearing the big support shelf at $1527, as shown on the chart.  Why did gold decline in the wake of the Fed’s extension of Operation Twist and promises of further action?  Is the market beginning to recognize that the US central bank’s alleged money-printing prowess is a grand illusion?  A meaningful break of the support shelf should lead to an acceleration lower and panic in the hard-money camp.”

The Fundamental View juga pesimistis, dan mengatakan bahwa jika $1,535 “level is breached on a closing basis, or if it falls significantly through that level, then the next potential stopping point for gold could be at the $1,300.00 level.”

Hal tersebut tidak mengeluarkan emas dari jalur kenaikannya karena level $1,300 masih merupakan bottom range emas dari trendline kenaikannya selama 10 tahun (lihat grafik di bawah ini).

Dikatakannya pula bahwa “the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play but is admittedly looking uglier and less proportional as each day passes.  Although I feel it is unlikely to play out, gold cannot fall below $1,535 if we are to keep that pattern in play.”

Namun dia memberikan catatan bahwa death cross – ketika garis MA-50 hari memotong ke bawah garis MA-200 hari, yang terjadi di pertengahan April – “usually implies that the trend has officially reversed indicating that further declines are very likely.  Not until the 50-day cross back above the 200-day in what is known as the golden cross, will I be going heavily long.”

Dan seperti biasa, berikut adalah lelucon yang mungkin bisa membuat Anda tertawa, kecuali tentunya jika Anda seorang ekonom:

Q: How many economists does it take to change a light bulb?

A: None.  If it really needed changing, market forces would have caused it to happen.

Sebelum mengakhiri tulisan ini, saya ingin menambahkan satu hal: Apapun yang terjadi di pasar, sebaiknya Anda tetap TENANG dan DINGIN! Selamat menikmati hari dan tetaplah berhati-hati …

Dibuat Tanggal 24 Juli 2012

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