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Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 3)

“All the talk about a gold bubble seems to be based on the fact that so many investors are now talking about gold.  However, the problem with this argument is that despite all the talking, very few investors are actually buying.  Bubbles are not formed by talk, but by action.  Before we get a gold bubble, all those investors talking about gold actually have to buy an ounce.  In fact, before a bubble pops, it’s not just investors, but the average man in the street who will have to be buying. Thus far, he has not even joined the conversation.”

-Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Precious Metals

Pagi ini (25 Juli 2012) ada 2 data penting yang dirilis saat sesi pasar Asia berlangsung.

Ekspor Jepang turun 2,3 persen di bulan Juni untuk basis tahunan, dan merupakan penurunan pertamanya dalam 4 bulan, akibat melambannya perekonomian di Eropa, Cina dan negara-negara berkembang lainnya yang kemudian menekan permintaan untuk barang-barang dari Jepang.

Hal utama yang perlu dicatat di sini adalah bahwa ekspor ke Eropa Juni anjlok 21,3 persen untuk basis tahunan, yang merupakan penurunan terbesar sejak penurunan pada Oktober 2009 karena krisis hutang Eropa.

CPI Australia meningkat rata-rata 0,6% di kuartal pertama tahun ini, sesuai perkiraan. Inflasi tahunan sebesar 1,95 persen merupakan yang terendah sejak 1998 serta di bawah target inflasi jangka panjang Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 2 hingga 3 persen, yang membuka peluang pemangkasan suku bunga lebih lanjut jika diperlukan untuk meredam kekhawatiran global.

Amee Kaye, ekonom dari Macquarie, mengomentari data inflasi Australia tersebut sebagai berikut:

We’re factoring in a further 50 basis points of rate cuts, one in November and a following 25 basis points in December.  We’re expecting the underlying inflation number to remain around 2-to-2.5 percent, so the lower end of the (central bank) target band.”

Jadi apakah ini artinya kita harus mempertimbangkan untuk menjual Australian dollar terhadap mata uang lainnya pada kuartal keempat nanti?  Mari kita nantikan bagaimana reaksi pasar jika dan ketika RBA beraksi …

Hari ini juga akan dirilis indeks Survey Sentimen Bisnis Jerman dari lembaga Ifo, yang merupakan perubahan (dalam basis bulanan) iklim bisnis di Jerman.  Negara terkemuka Uni Eropa kian pesimis di bulan Mei terkait dengan outlook ekonominya mendatang.  Data survey tersebut dirilis 105.3 di bulan Juni, lebih rendah dari 106.9 Mei sebelumnya, dan juga di bawah ekspektasi 106.1 dari ekonom ketika itu. Untuk periode Juli ini, rilisnya diperkirakan kembali turun ke level 104.7.

Namun data terpenting hari ini tentu saja GDP Inggris untuk kuartal kedua 2012, yang diproyeksikan akan mengalami kontraksi kembali, yakni sebesar 0,2 persen, melanjutkan kontraksinya di kuartal pertama, -0,3 persen.  Penyebab utama resesi tersebut kemungkinan dari lemahnya sektor konstruksi.  Berlanjutnya penurunan GDP akan menunjukkan berlanjutnya keterpurukan aktifitas perekonomian Inggris, dan dapat memberikan tekanan bagi pound sterling.

Serta jangan lupa untuk mengamati data New Home Sales AS.  Di bulan Mei, data ini meningkat 369.000 unit dari 343.000 unit di bulan April.  Peningkatan tajam tersebut merupakan peningkatannya dalam 4 bulan beruntun dan merupakan level tertingginya selama 2 tahun.

Jika data tersebut masih berlanjut naik maka akan lebih lanjut memberikan indikasi pemulihan pada pasar properti AS yang kemungkinan juga akan memberikan dorongan bagi penguatan dolar AS.

Dan Deutsche Bank melaporkan bahwa the ECB is due to publish its third lending survey of the year today.  The survey could provide the ECB with a key piece of evidence to justify additional 3Y LTROs – if lending standards tighten again, another liquidity push may be necessary to avert a harsher credit crunch.  The ECB will publish one more lending survey this year on 31 October.”

Sebelum saya melanjutkan penjelasan tentang pasar emas, saya pikir sebaiknya terlebih dahulu kita ulas sedikit mengenai bursa saham, khususnya indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average dan S&P 500.  Berdasarkan ulasan pekan lalu, ketika saya memberikan warning mengenai aksi jual yang sudah di ambang pintu, saya ingin mempersembahkan artikel yang berjudul “Before You “Buy the Dip,” Look at These Two Charts”.  Penulisnya, Charles Hugh Smith dari Of Two Minds, telah melakukan tugasnya dengan luar biasa untuk mengingatkan kita terhadap segala bahaya dalam mencoba menangkap pisau yang jatuh.  Menurut saya lebih baik aman daripada menyesal kemudian:

“The real economy has entered recession territory, while the stock market is setting up a massive downtrend from QE-juiced highs.

Our Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh recently posted two charts that should give those tempted to “buy the dip” pause.

The first is a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The recent price history has traced out a pattern that looks remarkably similar to the one that presaged the crash of 2008, with one difference: massive quantitative easing and Eurozone bailouts pushed the B leg into an overextension. If this pattern is valid, the C leg down could be a real doozy:

How can we tell the market is ready to roll over on fundamentals? Study the ISM PMI composite readings, which just dropped below 50 into recession territory:

Notice that the S&P 500 stock market index is highly correlated to the Composite. Those who expect stocks to rise despite the PMI Composite cratering will have to explain why “this time it’s different.”

The “buy the dip” crowd is counting on the Federal Reserve to launch a new round of QE (quantitative easing) that will goose the market higher even as the real economy follows the rest of the global economy into recession.

Perhaps, but for how long? Or even more sobering, suppose this entire “b” leg up was the market pricing in QE3 being unleashed on August 1.

The “buy the dip” crowd may well face a new choice: either sell at 12,500, or sell at 10,500.

Thank you, Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh for sharing two of your many insightful charts.”

Sejumlah orang mengatakan emas sedang berada dalam suatu bubble, sementara yang lain mengklaim bahwa uang kertaslah yang sedang bubble sehingga harus diwaspadai dan juga yang paling berbahaya. Jadi mana yang benar? Untuk membantu Anda menjawab pertanyaan ini, saya memiliki tiga tulisan singkat dari beberapa ahli yang benar-benar tahu apa yang mereka bicarakan.

Yang pertama adalah dari Detlev Schlichter, penulis PAPER MONEY COLLAPSE, The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown dan tidak membutuhkan introduksi lebih lanjut dari saya:

“As the gold-skeptics keep reminding us, gold pays no coupon and no dividend, it does not offer a running yield, so traditional measures of ‘fair value’ do not apply.

But gold is money, and just as the paper ticket in your wallet does not pay interest, neither does gold.  Gold is a monetary asset that has functioned as a medium of exchange and a store of value for thousands of years, around the world and in almost all societies and cultures.

Many modern economists believe that gold has now been successfully replaced with state paper money, such as paper dollars, paper euros, paper yen, and so forth.  Holding gold is therefore redundant.  The present crisis is a stark reminder that this faith in fiat money is misplaced.

Gold is still a superior monetary asset.  It is not under the control of any political institution.  It cannot be printed to artificially lower interest rates and to ‘stimulate’ the economy, to create fake booms in financial assets and in real estate, to fund credit growth with printed money rather than true savings, to subsidize the banking sector and then bail it out when the banks overreached, to allow the government to run never-ending budget deficits, to make unfunded promises to voters and fund wars.  Gold is hard, inelastic, apolitical and truly international money.  It does not bow to anybody.  Paper money is a political tool.”

Pada waktu publikasi laporan emas terbarunya di Erste Group Bank (http://www.erstegroup.com) yang berjudul Gold Report 2012 – In GOLD we TRUST Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, yang memiliki gelar Chartered Market Technician (CMT) dan Certified Financial Technician (CFTe), berbicara pada 11 Juli 2012 kepada jurnalis finansial, Lars Schall, mengenai keseluruhan topik fundamental emas. Dan berikut adalah penjelasannya mengenai “Exeter’s Pyramid”:

“The pyramid named after John Exeter (a US economist, former vice president of the Federal Reserve New York and member of the Council on Foreign Relations) shows the liquidity flows between the various asset classes.  In an often-quoted interview (http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/2599701), Exeter expected a deflationary collapse, in the course of which gold would significantly gain in importance. He says that in a deflationary depression, as in an hourglass, liquidity flows from the higher part of the pyramid downwards, amid falling willingness to assume risk (see chart below).

At the upper end, liquidity would dry up due to the lack of buyers and revert from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market.  Since credit is “slumbering mistrust” (Thomas Paine), creditors try to sell the continuously falling number of liquid assets and head for the lower asset classes as a result of their rising risk aversion.  At the bottom end is gold.  Due to the general skepticism the circulation of gold declines, as it is increasingly being hoarded.  The degree of hoarding always depends proportionately on the confidence in the government and the currency.  Gold is never scarce unless it is hoarded – for good reasons – and deliberately hidden.  Since gold does not hinge on any form of IOU, it is the only alternative to paper money and is thus at the bottom of the upside-down pyramid. Or as Alan Greenspan said in 2010: “Fiat money has no place to go but gold.”

Yang tak kalah penting datang dari James Turk, saat wawancaranya dengan King World News pada 25 Juni 2012 mengatakan sejumlah hal yang sangat menarik mengenai bank runs, yang merupakan titik fokus dari the Great Depression dan merupakan bagian dari 3 proses yang paralel hingga saat ini:

“After the 1929 stock market crash, people moved money out of investments and put it into banks.  They wanted the liquidity, and, at first, did not fear for the safety of their money on deposit.  We went through this step with the Lehman Collapse.

As the economy weakened in the 1930s, people started to convert their deposits into cash currency.  This was the second part of the crisis, when fear for the safety of one’s money became more important than liquidity.  We are now at stage two in Europe, and soon will be reaching this stage in the US.  The downgrade of the major US banks, last week, is bringing heightened awareness of the fragility of the US banking system, meaning they are extremely vulnerable to an economic downturn.

Europe’s economy is clearly on a downward path, and economic activity in the US is slowing too.  So the third step of the process might be closer than we think.  That’s when, in the 1930s, people moved out of cash, and into gold.

They did so back then because even though the US dollar was still formally tied to gold, people began to understand that there was more paper outstanding than there was gold in the US reserve.  They believed that the US government could not possibly keep its promise to redeem $20.67 for one ounce of gold, so they moved out of paper currency.

Importantly, they were right.  President Roosevelt eventually devalued the dollar by 69.4%, dropping the gold content of one US dollar from 23.23 grains to 13.71 grains of fine gold.  He adjusted the price of gold from $20.67 an ounce to $35 an ounce.

In the 1930s, if people were lucky enough to get their money out of any of the hundreds of banks that failed, they didn’t want to take any more chances.  They soon realized that the paper currency in their hand wasn’t much safer than when they had their money on deposit in a bank.  The panic to obtain gold or silver marked the bottom of the Great Depression.  The solution was a higher gold price, and that is the same solution needed today.

President Roosevelt knew the solution in the 1930s, and lowered the gold content of the dollar, thereby raising the gold price.  Central planners don’t like that solution because it takes away the power they now have with fiat currencies, backed by nothing but their promises, but a higher gold price is coming nonetheless.  It is the only solution.

Menurut pendapat saya, akhir dari bull market emas ini akan ditandai dengan aksi panic buying. Emas (dan juga perak) akan masuk ke gelembung yang astronomis suatu hari, mungkin gelembung terbesar dalam sejarah keuangan.
Misalnya pada 1980, sejak tahun 1976 emas bergerak dari sekitar level $102, sampai dengan pertengahan Desember 1979, untuk akhirnya mencapai $400. Kemudian dalam 6 pekan terakhir emas melonjak dari $400 hingga $875! Jadi sepertinya efek penggandaan yang akan Anda lihat, tetapi dalam periode waktu yang sangat, sangat singkat. Jika Anda mulai melihat hal tersebut, maka itu adalah tanda sebuah major high, yang saat ini bahkan belum kita dekati.

What Do the Charts Say?

Brett Eversole, analis dari True Wealth Systems, menulis pada 23 April  2012 bahwa Anda sebaiknya jangan mengkhawatirkan koreksi emas belakangan ini. Mengapa demikian? Karena sejarah:

“You see, since gold’s bull market began, the metal has formed three interim tops … May 2006, March 2008, and September 2011.  It took gold prices 16 and 18 months to make new highs after the 2006 and 2008 tops.

It’s been eight months since last September’s $1,900 high in gold prices.  So if we follow history, we can expect gold to make a new high at some point in the next 12 months (see chart below).

Of course, this is no guarantee.  But as Mark Twain famously said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”  Based on history, I’m confident gold will make new highs in the next 12 months.”

Berikutnya, seperti diulas Barclays Senin lalu bahwa data musiman jangka panjang untuk emas memiliki periode bearishness, consolidation, dan bullishness yang sangat jelas.  Nampaknya emas masih dalam masa tenang hingga bulan depan, namun di periode September hingga pertengahan Oktober biasanya secara empiris menjadi bullish.

Berikut adalah grafik dari Barclays mengenai 3 periode bullish emas:

Terakhir datang dari Ronald-Peter Stoeferle yang juga dikatakan dalam Gold Report 2012 – In GOLD we TRUST bahwa kinerja terbaik emas cenderung terjadi pada setiap kuartal akhir dan kuartal pertama.

The profound level of seasonality has been an essential factor in the recent sideways movement of the gold price.  The so-called wedding season and the Diwali festival in India result in a seasonal uptick in demand.  Given that most weddings in India take place in autumn and spring, the jewellery industry stocks up in the third and fourth quarter.  On top of that, jewelers also step up their inventories for Christmas in the third and fourth quarter.  Therefore, gold tends to perform best in the fourth and the first quarter, whereas it would correct substantially in the second quarter and move sideways in the third quarter.

This seasonality has been observed in 75-80% of the cases.  It is also no secret anymore and thus reinforces this development by means of self-fulfilling prophecy.

The following chart supports the notion of seasonality associated with the gold price and the TSX Gold Index.  The time series covers the current bull market since its beginning.  Clearly, the best seasonality starts in August.  Due to the strong seasonality we believe that the gold price should be moving sideways until the end of July.  After that, it should pick up on the back of the aforementioned seasonal effects.  The gold price has increased in September in 65% of the cases.”

Dan apakah Anda tahu cerita dari CNNMoney.com beberapa hari lalu yang berjudul Government Wants More People on Food Stamps:

“More than one in seven Americans are on food stamps, but the federal government wants even more people to sign up for the safety net program.

The department is spending between $2.5-3 million on paid spots, and free public service announcements are also airing.  The campaign can be heard in California, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and the New York metro area.

In fiscal 2011, the federal government spent more than $75 billion on food stamps, up from $34.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2008, according to the USDA.”

Tetapi kalau tidak tahu juga tidak apa-apa, karena mungkin yang berikut dapat membuat Anda tertawa, tertawa dan tertawa …

“The food stamp program, administered by the US Department of Agriculture, is proud to be distributing the greatest amount of free meals and food stamps ever.

Meanwhile, the National Park Service, administered by the US Department of the Interior, asks us to ‘Please Do Not Feed the Animals.’

Their stated reason for the policy is because the animals will grow dependent on handouts and will not learn to take care of themselves.”

Dibuat Tanggal 25 Juli 2012

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