Home > Emas > Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 4)

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 4)

“Gold is the mirror of the world’s paper currency system.  The price of gold doesn’t reflect the intrinsic value of the metal – which is almost unchanging over time.  It reflects the relative value and volatility of paper currencies.  The people who are arguing that gold is overvalued are not looking at the right numbers.  They ought to be looking at Europe’s banks.  They ought to be looking at the amount of short-term obligations that are sitting on the US Treasury’s books.  The price of gold is reflecting the likelihood that the world’s sovereign nations decide to bail out Europe’s banks and paper over the US Treasury debt.”

-Porter Stansberry

South Korea, yang merupakan perekonomian terbesar ke-4 di Asia dan sangat bergantung dari ekspor smartphones, kapal dan mobil, mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi 0,4% (seasonally adjusted) di periode April-Juni  2012 dari kuartal sebelumnya.

Reuters melaporkan bahwa “details provided by the Bank of Korea showed the economy would have shrunk by half a percent if imports did not fall in the second quarter indicating the growth rate of 0.4 percent was little more than a statistical illusion.

Analysts said they could not predict when the world’s seventh-largest exporter would begin to recover, but the data reinforced their view that another interest rate cut is needed soon after a surprising reduction early this month.”

Kemudian di sesi AS hari ini (Kamis 26 Juli 2012) fokus akan tertuju pada rilis data Durable Goods Orders AS.  Pada bulan Mei demand terhadap produk tahan lama AS tersebut meningkat 1,3%, sementara di bulan Juni Reuters memperkirakan peningkatan tipis 0,2%.

Seperti biasa, kita juga akan dihadapkan pada data Jobless Claims Weekly Report AS, sebuah data mingguan klaim tunjangan pengangguran yang malam ini dirilis untuk periode di pekan yang berakhir 20 Juli lalu.  Di pekan sebelumnya angka penduduk AS yang mengajukan klaim tersebut meningkat sebesar 34.000 menjadi 386.000, setelah mengalami penurunan tajam karena periode auto-plant retooling musiman. Untuk rilis aktualnya nanti malam diperkirakan turun menjadi 380.000.

Pertanyaan yang barangkali muncul pada benak setiap orang saat ini adalah: Kapan bank-bank sentral dunia akan mengengkol mesin cetaknya kembali, dan apakah aksinya the Fed akan terjadi  saat pertemuan moneternya yang akan berlangsung pekan depan pada 31 Juli hingga 1 Agustus?

Secara pribadi saya berpikir bahwa jika Bernanke melihat realita yang ada, tentunya dia akan mengambil langkah penyelamatan dengan QE3.  Ketika itu terjadi, emas dan perak akan berlomba naik.  Namun … saya juga merasa bahwa the Chairman of the Federal Reserve itu akan kesulitan untuk menarik pelatuknya saat ini.

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com sepertinya punya pandangan yang sama dengan saya.  Berikut adalah hal yang dikatakannya kemarin terkait dengan kelanjutan pelonggaran moneter dalam jangka pendek ini:

“We, like BofAML, are more predisposed to expectations of a rate extension next week to mid-2015 followed by NEW QE in September (with a disappointed equity market slump in between that ‘enables’ NEW QE).

In our view, the Fed isn’t quite ready to launch QE3 yet – would prefer to see more data – but could extend forward guidance to reflect the recent string of disappointing data at their August 1 meeting.  We continue to expect a rate extension next week to mid-2015 followed by QE3 in September.

Satu hal yang perlu diingat: krisis hutang saat ini, yang dialami oleh Eropa, AS, Jepang dan juga Inggris, pasti akan berdampak pada harga logam mulia.  Contohnya Eric Sprott, seorang Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, dalam wawancaranya dengan King World News baru-baru ini mengatakan tentang krisis yang sedang berlangsung di Eropa tersebut:

“It’s beyond the ability of governments to deal with all of these weak countries.  There are only one of two answers: Yes, someone could print as much money as they want.  Maybe they could print $5 trillion and say, ‘We’ll back up all of the banking systems.’

And then one could maybe say the problem is solved.  Of course the problem is, if they print $5 trillion, everyone knows they can’t back it up with anything.  Then you will lose confidence in the currency and you will go into hyperinflation because people will realize that real things are safer than paper things, including bonds and stocks and things like that.

So there are only two choices, they’ve got to print or there are going to be some defaults, which is the natural offspring of a Minsky moment …

Sooner or later you have to write off the debt or you have to inflate it away.

If they inflate it away, then the reason for gold and silver to go higher will be incredible.  If they deflate it away, the need for people to take their money out of banks so the depositor doesn’t lose money becomes all that more apparent.  And where do you put that money you take out of the bank?  Well, the logical thing is to have it in gold and silver.”

Kemudian – dalam wawancara lainnya dengan King World News – Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan managing partner Matterhorn Asset Management, juga mengomentari tentang krisis finansial yang sedang terjadi dan kemana kita akan dibawa:

“Spanish rates have broken back above the 7% level once again, but in reality we know that many European countries will never be able to repay these debts.  You now have a total worldwide debt of around $150 trillion.  If you add to that contingent liabilities, unfunded liabilities, pension funds, etc., you are talking about $500 trillion.

If you add to that the outstanding derivatives, which are around one quadrillion dollars, and there are no reserves for them.  These are issued without any real asset backing them.  If you combine the two figures you are at a staggering one and a half quadrillion dollars.  That’s against world GDP which is around $50 trillion.

So you are talking here about a leverage of 30 times global GDP …

How can anyone in the world invest in any government bond when they know that it can never be repaid?  The world is simply drowning in debt.  This is why it is guaranteed that governments will print money.

So the money printing will come and the hyperinflation will come because without that we have no banking system and no financial system left.  You are talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars that potentially need to be printed.  The effect of this on the global economy will be disastrous.

Prices of hard assets will go into the stratosphere, and this, of course, includes gold and silver.  Last time we talked about my target on gold of $3,500 to $5,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, and then over $10,000 in 3 years.  But with all of the money creation we are talking about, the world will experience massive inflation.  We already know that gold went from 100 marks to 100 trillion marks, from 1919 to 1923, during the Weimar Republic.

With world debt at much greater levels today vs. that time period, the gold price will eventually have lots and lots of zeros after it.  But people who are still holding paper money may very well find it is worthless.  At least gold will protect your purchasing power.

What has to be said today to holders of government debt, which yields nothing, is when you have governments like the US, Spanish, Greek, and now even the German government with all of their ballooning commitments, there is no government that will ever be able to repay these debts.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Mungkin seorang chartist dari Jim Sinclair, Dan Norcini, yang terbaik dalam menjelaskan situasi terkini di pasar emas:

“Traders are literally sitting on edge.  As each bit of economic data comes out or each story breaks out of Europe, traders have no conviction as to which way things are going.  So, what’s happening is this lack of conviction, this confusion, has traders jumpy.

This action should continue unless we get a definite resolution to the question, is there going to be a QE3?  Until then, we should see more of this volatility and choppy type of trading.”

Sementara menurut Chris Puplava, seorang Portfolio Manager dan juga Fundamental Analyst pada PFS Group, akan ada QE3 dan QE berikutnya, yang jelas terlihat dari judul artikel yang ditulisnya pada 20 Juli 2012 lalu, yakni Global QE Is Coming: Let the Gold Mania Begin!.

Berikut adalah komentar beserta grafik dari artikel yang luar biasa tersebut:

“… I’ve taken a look at the top 10 debtor nations of the world to see if they had a large portion of their total outstanding debt maturing in the near future.  What I found startled me: Nearly 50% of the total outstanding debt of the world’s top 10 debtor nations needs to be rolled over by the end of 2015.

While fears over a European contagion and a hard landing in China have driven investors into sovereign debt like the US and Japan, how long can this continue and will investor demand for sovereign debt be able to soak up the total supply over the next few years?  It is my belief that global central banks will be the buyers of last resort and will be monetizing the debt in massive quantities over the next two and a half years.  This may perhaps be the catalyst leading to the mania phase for gold as investors all over the world attempt to protect themselves from global quantitative easing and global currency debasement.

The Top 10 Debtor Nations

While the world is currently focused on Spain and Italy as seen by 5-year credit default swap insurance north of 500 basis points (costs $500K annually to protect $10M worth of debt from default), the picture for the other countries that make up the top 10 debtor nations in the world is not much brighter.  For example, while Italy has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, Japan takes the top spot with 208%; and while Italy currently has a budget deficit relative to GDP of -3.9%, the US is far worse with a -8.10%.  In fact, of the top 10 debtor nations half of them have budget deficits of more than 5% relative to GDP and 7 of the 10 have debt-to-GDP ratios at or exceeding 80%.  As the table below from Bloomberg highlights, the sovereign debt crisis is not a Euro phenomenon but a GLOBAL issue.

I believe global central banks will be monetizing debt in massive quantities between now and 2015 because large portions of debt will be maturing in just the next two and a half years.  For example, both the US and Japan will see one fifth of their entire debt outstanding mature just between now and the end of the year, with Canada seeing 26% of their total outstanding debt mature! The other members of the top 10 are only in a slightly better position with all but the UK to see double-digit debt rollovers of their total outstanding debt between now and 2015.

Looking at the outstanding debt for the top 10 combined shows that just between now and the end of the year more than $5 trillion in debt will mature, or 17% of their total outstanding debt, and by 2015 nearly 50% of the top 10 debtor nations total outstanding debt will come due.  That is more than $15 trillion in debt coming due in the next two and a half years!

Because we are going to see trillions and trillions of sovereign debt come due over the next two and a half years I believe gold may be entering the mania phase of its secular bull market that began in 2001.  There is just too much debt maturing over the next couple of years for capital markets to absorb and it is highly likely we will see global quantitative easing occur as central banks step in to be buyers of last resort to help suppress interest rates and keep debt servicing costs low.  Over the next two years we will likely see the big 4 central banks combined reserves exceed $10 trillion dollars.

Global currency debasement has been one of the main drivers for gold’s appreciation and massive jumps in central bank balance sheets are also associated with kicking off big moves in gold.  With the massive amount of debt to roll over just ahead and the likely increase in central bank balance sheets, we may just see gold head to new all-time highs as global investors move to protect their capital from the tidal wave of cheap money.”

Dan seperti biasa Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com juga turut andil di isu ini dengan menulis artikel yang sangat menarik pada 19 Juni 2012 lalu, yang berjudul In Case of NEW QE, Gold to $1,900-$8,500 Says SocGen:

“In a previous post we showed how, despite Goldman’s best wishes, the market may have just priced itself out of a treat from the Fed tomorrow, and right into a trick.  That said, in case the Fed has in fact succumbed to the pleadings of its superiors (read Primary Dealers) and does proceed with some seriously unsterilized dollar mauling, the next question is what is the best hedge.  SocGen asked the same, and provided several strategies to take advantage of central planners exhibiting a rare case of Einstein’s definition on insanity … over and over.  Their “Strategy #1: Bolster Positions In Gold Ahead of QE3.”  Why?  Because once the next round of the gold juggernaut is unleashed, gold may go to anywhere between $1900, just shy of the all time nominal high, and $8500 … just a tad higher than the nominal high.

From SocGen:

  • USD 1,900/oz: To close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007, gold would have to rise to $1,900/oz, assuming full transmission from the monetary base increase to the gold price.
  • USD 8,500/oz: If gold catches up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s), its price would rise to USD 8,500/oz.

The latter scenario is the price only catching up with where it should be.  Add another $700 billion – $1 trillion for a potential NEW QE, and you get a 5 digit (and increasingly more meaningless) number.”

Sebelum mengakhiri laporan ini, saya akan mengetengahkan kepada Anda kata-kata bijak dari Tim Price, seorang director of investment di PFP Group serta editor surat kabar The Price Report, dan sebuah gambar yang mungkin bernilai ribuan kata:

“Gold is also now getting attention from the unlikeliest of sources.  Bond fund manager Bill Gross of Pimco recently wrote: “As [investors] question the value of much of the $200 trillion which comprises our current [monetary] system, they move marginally elsewhere – to real assets such as land, gold and tangible things, or to cash and a figurative mattress where at least their money is readily accessible.”

In short, investors are faced with a choice between vast abundance (in paper assets and all things debt-like), and genuine scarcity (tangible and real assets, especially gold).  In a deleveraging world and in light of the ongoing financial crisis, it makes sense to vote for scarcity.”

Dibuat Tanggal 26 Juli 2012

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