Home > Emas > Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 5)

Apakah Naga Emas Akan Segera Memuntahkan Apinya? (Bagian 5)

“It’s estimated that there are some six billion ounces of refined gold in human possession around the world, or, somewhat less than one ounce per person.  Global gold production is said to be about 80 million ounces per year, or about a 1.3% annual increase in the supply of gold.  That would be the steady, “natural” rate of inflation if we were on a gold standard.  The amount of various currency units in the world is increasing at a much, much faster pace than 1.3%.  Nobody really knows, not even the Fed, but depending on how you define the money supply, it would take $10,000 to $50,000 – or more – per ounce to back all of the dollars in existence with gold.  Whatever the correct number is, I expect gold’s price in dollars to increase dramatically as the world moves closer to and eventually adopts a gold standard.”

-Doug Casey

Pagi ini (27 Juli 2012) kita menyaksikan rilis data dari Jepang, yakni retail sales periode Juninya yang naik 0,2% y/y.  Ini merupakan kenaikannya selama 7 bulan beruntun meskipun hasilnya tersebut masih di bawah konsensus pasar yang memperkirakan kenaikan hingga 1,2% dan menunjukkan hilangnya momentum dari kenaikan 3,6% di bulan Mei, 5,7% di bulan April dan 10,3% di bulan Maret.

Juga di hari yang sama fokus pasar akan menuju data GDP 2Q 2012 untuk estimasi pertama.  Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS di kuartal pertama sebesar 1,9%, berada di bawah proyeksi dan lebih rendah dari 3,0% di kuartal sebelumnya.  Di kuartal kedua, gross domestic product AS diperkirakan akan bertumbuh 1,5% y/y, demikian ditunjukkan oleh sebuah polling dari Reuters.  Level tersebut merupakan pertumbuhan terendahnya sejak kuartal kedua tahun 2011, yang menurut analis dapat mendorong the Fed AS kembali melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya.

Kebanyakan orang sepertinya hanya memperhatikan headlines-nya saja dan “lupa” untuk melihat apa yang SEBENARNYA terjadi.  Sebelum Anda benar-benar antusias terhadap rally pada sejumlah besar aset-aset beresiko kemarin, berikut adalah sejumlah FAKTA yang seharusnya Anda ingat (dikutip dari Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com):

1) “The kneejerk short covering reaction to Draghi’s remark that he will do “anything to preserve the euro” (this must be news because yesterday the ECB would not do anything to preserve the euro supposedly) is over.  Now the analysis begins of what was actually said.  The realization is … nothing.  From Bloomberg:

  • ‘Nothing Structural’ In Post-Draghi Bond Spread Moves: Credit Agricole
  • While selloff in bunds may extend further, it appears to be just “correction” of what is risk-averse bull rally, Credit Agricole fixed income strategist Peter Chatwell says in interview.
  • The inverse is still case for periphery; says “we’re still in regime of elevated peripheral yields” and difficulty in those markets
  • Draghi remarks on ECB readiness to act “deliberately ambiguous,” clearly in response to market volatility and distress
  • In being so ambiguous, comments are “slightly threatening” for investors short the periphery; could be hinting at further easing, rate cuts, or something “much more bold”

And now the countdown to the halflife begins.  Typically cases such as this where the ECB leaves an open door without any actual hints of what it will do, have a several hour kneejerk lifetime.  If and when Germany comes out and denies everything Draghi said, whatever it may have actually been, it will be minutes.”

2) “The question remains – given all the front-running anticipatory moves on the back of jawbone after jawbone, will ECB/Fed action have anything but a brief romance with higher prices when/if it occurs?  The S&P 500 pushed up to fill its Monday opening gap-down on a reasonable volume day (heading into T-3 from month-end shenanigans) but the participation is absolutely not what one would expect if this was belief with S&P 500 e-mini futures seeing their lowest average trade size of the year.

Lower pane is average trade size for the S&P 500 – today was the lowest of the year – suggesting very little professional participation … ES remains in this fibonacci retracement block which feels very much like a correction in a downtrend …”

“On one hand we have Mario Draghi promising he has a magic wand (not a printer – remember the keys to that are now held by Angela Merkel who is on vacation) and to “believe him” that the EUR will survive.  On the other we have Greece which is a poster child of everything that is wrong in Europe.  And that we summarize as follows: i) an epic and now relentless deposit outflow from Greek banks which continues as all trust in the local banking system is now gone, as €7 billion in deposits or the second biggest amount ever, is pulled and 20% of the entire corporate and household deposit base has vaporized in the past year, and ii) an economy in which it is every man for himself and where nobody pays any taxes any more, period.  Best of luck in preserving that EUR Super Mario.

Here is the just released move in June deposits in Greece:

3) The question remains – given all the front-running anticipatory moves on the back of jawbone after jawbone, will ECB/Fed action have anything but a brief romance with higher prices when/if it occurs?  The S&P 500 pushed up to fill its Monday opening gap-down on a reasonable volume day (heading into T-3 from month-end shenanigans) but the participation is absolutely not what one would expect if this was belief with S&P 500 e-mini futures seeing their lowest average trade size of the year.

Lower pane is average trade size for the S&P 500 – today was the lowest of the year – suggesting very little professional participation … ES remains in this fibonacci retracement block which feels very much like a correction in a downtrend …”

Chart: Bloomberg

4) “In a week which has seen the Fed telegraphing further QEasing by its favorite mouthpiece, and the ECB promising, but never delivering, both that the ESM would get a banking license, which prevented the EURUSD from tumbling below 1.20 yesterday yet which has been totally forgotten today, and that we should “beeleeve” Mario Draghi that unlike before he will not let the EUR fail, the cherry on top and the one event which removes any doubt that the coordinated events of this whole have had the sole purposes of masking that US corporate success has finally plateaued and it is ‘only downhill from here’, comes courtesy of the CME which moments ago cut the margin requirements on the bulk of its equity indices by 20-25%.”

Dengan kata lain, tidak banyak hal baru atau substansi dari komentar para pembuat kebijakan jadi saya memperkirakan akan terjadi sell on strength euro dan aset-aset beresiko lainnya (pound sterling, Aussie dollar, bursa saham dan akhirnya juga emas).

Di akhir diskusi kita mengenai emas ini, saya akan mengetengahkan komentar Richard Russell, seorang Godfather untuk penulis surat kabar, dalam wawancaranya dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) pada 26 Juni 2012, yang mendiskusikan tentang emas dengan panjang lebar dan juga mengingatkan pembacanya mengapa emas merupakan sebuah aset yang harus dimiliki dalam portofolio investasi setiap orang:

“Sadly, the whole world is searching for income and safety, and the fact is that there is no income and there is no ultimate safety. Then how does one build wealth? The Asians know the answer to that — YOU BUY and HOLD GOLD — and exercise a lot of patience.

Stocks can declare dividends, but they can omit their dividends during hard times. Furthermore, stocks can go broke. But gold represents indestructible wealth. Gold rises in terms of fiat money, and gold declines in terms of fiat money.

Gold possesses some properties that are beyond the scope of other investments. Gold can’t go broke, because gold does not derive its purchasing power from the edict or control of any sovereign power or central bank. Gold has no counter-parties. Gold is tangible and is accepted everywhere — in good times or bad. Gold exists outside the world’s banking system. Unlike fiat money, gold is wealth on its own.

It’s tangible and not the fantasy-creation of central bankers. Gold does not need a sponsor or the acceptance of an expert (such as pricing a Picasso painting), because all gold is intrinsically the same. Gold does not tarnish nor does it degenerate — the gold in your watch may be the same gold that Cleopatra wore around her neck.

The supply of gold, unlike paper money, is limited. Alchemists have tried for centuries to turn other metals into gold — but have never succeeded. Gold is a beautiful metal on its own and the lust for gold seems to be built into the DNA of mankind. If you own ten thousand ounces of gold, you can say that you will ALWAYS be wealthy.

I have said before that China intends to be THE world leader. In order to make that happen, China has decided to defeat the US on economic terms. And that means — first, replacing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and establishing the renminbi as the world’s new reserve currency. For the last two years, China has encouraged its people to accumulate gold on their own.

It is clear that China intends to be the world center for buying and selling gold. China is also placing vending machines in various strategic areas, which will allow people to buy small quantities of gold at their leisure, just as if they were buying chewing gum.

The plus in all this for Americans is that the price of gold will be out of the grip and manipulations of the Federal Reserve and the Comex. It is well known that the Fed despises gold, because gold is out of the of the Fed’s control. Furthermore, gold competes with the Fed’s own fiat currency. The value of gold never changes. What changes is the number of dollars that are required to purchase a specific quantity of gold.

Note on the chart below (from Google) that China is a minuscule holder of gold compared with Western powers. For instance the US holds 8133 tons of gold while China holds a mere 1054 tons of gold. China means to change this ratio. Actually China’s ratio of gold to currency is a tiny 1.7% while the US ratio is above 74%.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Di ‘The Boldest Gold Prediction Ever’ Louis Basenese menampilkan sebuah grafik yang sangat menarik dengan suatu target harga untuk emas yang tinggi sekali:

“We’re all familiar with the Pareto principle.  We just know it by a different name: the 80/20 rule.

Well, Austrian investment bank, Erste Group, recently applied this idea to the gold market to predict where prices are headed next.  It used its findings from the gold bull market between 1970 and 1980.  That’s when 80% of the metal’s price performance occurred in the last 20% of the trend.

The result?  Gold at $8,300 by the spring of 2015, according to analyst, Ronald-Peter Stöferle.

Talk about a bold prediction!  That’s 422.7% above current prices.”

Menurut pandangan pribadi saya harga emas kemungkinan masih akan turun lebih dalam dari levelnya saat ini. Jika badai ekonomi tiba, maka emas akan terlihat sebagai sumber likuiditas yang mudah.  Rendahnya tingkat inflasi, atau justru deflasi, akan membuat emas kehilangan daya tarik investasinya dalam jangka pendek.

Tapi saya tidak akan menjual emas sekarang. Memegang hingga 20% dari portofolio Anda dalam bentuk emas tetap menjadi strategi yang masuk akal. Mengapa? Karena kekacauan ekonomi sebagian besar dunia Barat tidak akan dapat disembuhkan seperti sediakala. Saya pun masih khawatir bahwa masalah utang pemerintah yang tidak berkelanjutan dan balance sheet perbankan yang rapuh akan diperjuangkan dengan mesin cetak. Jumlah uang yang perlu dibuat adalah kolosal. Apa pengaruhnya untuk nilai uang akan menjadi nomor dua bagi para politisi dan bankir, tetapi jika terjadi maka Anda akan senang karena memiliki sejumlah asuransi dalam emas.

Cara yang paling aman untuk bertransaksi adalah menunggu sebuah uptrend yang jelas sebelum Anda melakukan aksi beli. Anda mungkin tidak akan mengantongi keuntungan 100% penuh, tetapi Anda juga tidak sedang mencoba menangkap pisau yang jatuh. Jadi yang Anda hanya lakukan adalah menunggu Golden Bull untuk memperoleh kekuatannya kembali, dan break out menembus keluar dari lilitan pola konsolidasi yang terjadi beberapa bulan terakhir ini.

Agar hari ini tetap ceria, berikut adalah salah satu lelucon yang biasa dilakukan oleh Jay Leno:

“Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee the economic recovery is weakening.  But the good news is most Americans will not be affected because they had no idea there was a recovery.”

Dan jika Anda kebetulan adalah orang tua (ibu) tunggal, dan kehabisan ide untuk menarik perhatian lawan jenis, berikut suatu hal yang mungkin bisa membantu Anda:

Dibuat Tanggal 27 Juli 2012

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  1. hendra
    August 3rd, 2012 at 11:51 | #1

    Hi Mr.Nico,

    Saya mau minta sarannya, apakah sebaiknya saat ini saya redeem reksadana saya (cukup banyak) dan menggantinya dengan emas.
    Sepertinya pasar saham semakin tidak meyakinkan untuk kedepan, sementara emas walaupun belum bullish tapi masih aman dari krisis.

    Mohon sarannya.

    Terima kasih

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