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GUEST POST: Runtuhnya Rezim Uang Kertas

July 24th, 2012 No comments

Blog Guest Post 24 Juli

Source: Fortune Magazine

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Apakah Selloff di Bursa Saham sudah di Ambang Pintu? (Bagian 4)

July 23rd, 2012 No comments

“This situation is unprecedented.  The world has never, ever been in a condition like this. As a result, anyone that is complacent here and says, ‘This is just business as usual,’ they are dead wrong and will be shocked at the chaos that is heading our way.”

-John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management

Harga obligasi di pasar US Treasury naik setelah investor cenderung memburu aset-aset defensive karena masih adanya kekhawatian ekonomi dan  penularan keuangan dari zona euro, yang menekan yield obligasi menuju areal terendah secara historis. Bahkan penjualan obligasi Jerman bertenor 2 tahun dengan zero coupon yang bernilai 4.17 milyar euro berhasil menarik minat permintaan terbesarnya sejak Januari, setelah para investor membayar untuk pertama kali sepanjang sejarah ke pemerintah Jerman untuk memarkir dana kas mereka dalam lelang obligasi 2 tahun.

Secara kontradiktoris dengan para investor obligasi yang khawatir terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, saham AS dan Eropa melonjak, terangkat oleh laporan pendapatan perusahaan yang solid di kedua benua tersebut. Indeks acuan S&P 500 menyentuh level tertinggi sejak awal Mei, dan ditutup di level 1,372.78 Rabu kemarin (18 Juli 2012).

Namun sejumlah orang justru semakin ragu, seperti Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com, dan belum yakin atas apa yang sedang terjadi.  Ia telah mencermati dengan seksama kemarin dan menemukan hal-hal yang tidak seluruhnya bagus:

“As we approach ‘peak earnings reporting’ in the next two weeks, a quick glance at the state of the 65 companies of the S&P 500 that have reported so far may be useful.  In yet another miracle of modern-day accounting, and just when you thought there was no more fat to cut, staff to lay-off, or CapEx to cut, 73% of companies reporting have surprised positively on EPS while 65% have surprised negatively on Revenues.  Industrials stand out in the liberal sprinkling of accounting fairy dust with 100% of the firms having missed top-line while 88% beat bottom-line.  Is it any wonder that unemployment is rising once again and CapEx is falling?

Kemarin Spanyol melakukan lelang penjualan obligasi jangka pendeknya senilai 3.56 milyar euro ($4.36 milyar), berhasil melampaui kisaran targetnya dan menekan yield dari levelnya sebulan lalu, meskipun terhitung masih berada di kisaran level tertingginya karena investor berspekulasi bahwa Spanyol pada akhirnya akan membutuhkan sovereign bailout.  Hari ini (19 Juli 2012) Spanyol akan menghadapi ujian besar saat melangsungkan lelang obligasi jangka menengah-panjangnya yang bernilai 3 milyar euro, menyusul yield obligasinya yang bertenor 10 tahun masih berada di dekat level tinggi 7 persen yang dianggap sebagai masalah bagi keuangan suatu negara.

Dan Jumat (20 Juli 2012) akan terjadi kembali pertemuan Eurogroup meeting untuk menyetujui secara resmi rencana bantuan perbankan Spanyol. Berdasarkan isi surat Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), tahap pertama pinjaman dengan total 30 milyar euro akan dikucurkan menjelang akhir Juli ini dan dicadangkan oleh EFSF.

Dalam tulisannya Election Year 2012: Two Landslides in the Making?, Charles Hugh Smith dari Of Two Minds memberikan analisa yang lebih rinci mengenai ekonomi dan bursa saham AS. Berikut adalah kutipan dan sejumlah grafik menarik darinya:

“If the economy continues declining into late October, there may be two landslides in the making: the stock market and the presidential election.

The stock market is precariously close to slipping into a landslide. If the economy and stock market both continue declining into late October, the presidential election could also turn into a landslide–against the incumbent.

Let’s consider the critical backdrops of the economy and stock market: household income and corporate profits. Market bulls like to tout rising profits as the reason the market can keep climbing higher in a global recession, but before we get too euphoric let’s recall that the earnings of 90% of American households have been flat since 1970.

All those fabulous profits were built on two now-crumbling edifices: astounding levels of household debt and a declining U.S. dollar that boosted the critical overseas profits (40% of all profits) via currency devaluation. Now that the dollar has broken out of a multi-decade downtrend and has been rising for a year, those tailwinds have turned into headwinds.

I have yet to read even one market bull who has considered the negative impact of the strengthening dollar on overseas profits. That is a fatal flaw in their argument for ever-higher profits and stocks.

Can the top 5% push corporate profits into the stratosphere?

Do trees grow to the sky? Corporate profits have risen at geometric rates. Does a recessionary global economy and a debt-crushed, declining-income 90% of households support the bullish claim that profits can soar to the moon?

Here’s a chart of the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index courtesy of dshort.com. I have marked it up to show the megaphone top pattern and the downtrend since 2007 of lower highs. This is unambiguously bearish. In effect, trillions of dollars in stimulus, bailouts, subsidies, giveaways and backstops have simply slowed the deterioration. Every time the economy threatened to sink into recession, another “save” was pulled out of the magic hat.

Once again the economy is on the edge of recession, only this time there are no more “saves” in the hat except QE3, and that can’t be unleashed (and the sugar high won’t last long) until 1) the market tanks and 2) the election is over.

When systems that have failed are not allowed to fail because of resistance by vested interests, the inevitable implosion is only delayed. Please consider this chart from Tony at Macro Story, who kindly shared this comparison chart of the S&P 500 (SPX) for 2011 and 2012. Tony counted a remarkably similar 16-point pattern in the two charts, and offered this commentary:

“First let me explain the basis for why the following may happen. The model analyzes market stress such as a selloff that was somehow averted. When such price action is averted, it is only done so temporarily. It does not eliminate the stress. And the more such events happen the greater the stress built into the system. For example, if you study the flash crash of 2010 or the July 2011 selloff, prior to that a number of opportunities for markets to correct were averted. For whatever reasons, the downside price action needed to “cleanse the system” was not allowed. The end result is the stress became too great and the downside movement was very explosive. (emphasis added by CHS)

The best example I can share with you is the detailed analog of the current market and that of 2011 over roughly the same time period. As a reminder there is more than just candlestick patterns but rather levels where price hits within the model. Those are levels used to identify such stress as referenced above.”

Thank you, Tony. If the stresses that have been countered since December 2008 with endless rounds of interventions, threats/promises of QE, etc. can no longer be constrained, then the bottom could be much lower than most technicians and pundits expect.

If stocks start cascading in a landslide the enfeebled, failed Fed cannot stop, the sitting president may face a landslide as well.”

Dan Egon von Greyerz, pendiri sekaligus seorang managing partner pada Matterhorn Asset Management, kepada King World News belum lama ini mengatakan bahwa para investor akan menyaksikan keruntuhan finansial terbesar yang pernah ada di dunia.  Berikut adalah yang dikatakan Greyerz mengenai sejumlah krisis yang sedang dihadapi dunia, serta apa yang dapat dilakukan investor untuk melindungi mereka dari masalah yang tak terhindarkan nantinya:

As always, I’m focusing on the big picture.  We are in a crisis, and the outcome is absolutely certain.  What is not certain is how we get there.  The problem is it’s not only one crisis, it’s a number of crises.  We have the first one which is the sovereign crisis.

Almost every single major country in the world is bankrupt, and no one has the tools or a plan to get these countries out of this crisis.  So countries will go bankrupt by default or by printing excessive money.  This situation will continue to get worse and ultimately lead to a hyperinflationary depression.

Then you have the banking crisis.  The banks are insolvent and they are also in a liquidity crisis.  And this is, again, worldwide.  There is no way the banks will be able to survive this without massive assistance.  This is a banking crisis of the magnitude which will amount to trillions of dollars, and if we take the whole of the derivative positions, it could be hundreds of trillions of dollars because of the counterparty risks.

The third crisis is the economic crisis.  Every single country is suffering tremendously and economic figures are continuing to deteriorate, whether it’s in the US, in Europe, China or Japan.  This crisis will also lead to a depression.

Any of these three crises is sufficient to bring the world down because they are not just in one country, they are worldwide …

The three crises together are guaranteed to bring down the world economy.

The fourth crisis that will come out of this will be the social crisis because people are suffering today.  Most people can hardly afford to live today because the costs of their food, fuel and housing are so expensive.  This will lead to more social unrest.

All of these factors are why this will be the most serious depression the world has ever experienced.  The problem is not having a gold standard, which has meant that the world economy has lost its integrity and honesty.  That’s what’s happening now, we have a dishonest financial system.  So we have a world without values.”

Greyerz menyimpulkan: “In reality, investors are under the illusion that the system will continue, but it won’t.  This is why investors have to focus on protecting their wealth.  I’m still of the firm opinion that the only investment that will protect investors’ purchasing power is physical gold, stored outside of the banking system.”

Saya telah mengingatkan pembaca berulangkali bahwa krisis hutang yang sedang berlangsung tidak akan berlanjut terus, dan perekonomian dunia pada akhirnya akan runtuh karena beban hutangnya terlalu tinggi.  Saya telah melakukannya begitu sering sehingga sebagian orang sudah tidak peduli terhadapnya atau bahkan menjadi bosan dengan masalah ini.  Tetapi jangan salah: hari hisab akan tiba dan Anda sebaiknya menyiapkan diri masing-masing jika ingin mempertahankan kekayaan.  Lalu apakah Anda akan bertindak sekarang atau … menunggu sampai pasar menunjukkan kekuatan destruktifnya?

What Do the Charts Say?

Nampaknya MARKETS AT A GLANCE-nya Elliott Wave International telah memberikan kesimpulan terbaik mengenai kondisi pasar saat ini pada rilisnya tertanggal 29 Juni 2012:

“A broad array of indexes and markets sport a bearish “five down, three up” wave structure on a weekly and daily basis.  The implication is clear: An across-the-board sell-off lies ahead that will draw nearly all markets significantly lower.

Europe’s main stock indexes are tracing out wave (3) down from the March 2012 highs.  Before wave (3) is over, the FTSE 100 will likely shed at least 1,500 points, while the CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 will fall below their March 2009 lows.

Most Asian Pacific stock markets are continuing their multimonth bear markets.”

Dan berikut adalah apa yang dikatakan Global Market Perspective mengenai bursa saham AS:

“This month marks a Fibonacci 13 years since The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast’s inaugural issue, which started this way: “The long-term stock market picture is one of historic overvaluation and vulnerability.”  This long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that it’s been a roller coaster ride for stocks since then, with the Dow registering three major tops: in 2000, which led to a 38% decline; in 2007, which resulted in a 54% decline; and, we think now, in 2012.

This decline should be far larger than the prior two.  Through this long topping process, GMP has been steadfast in our forecast; the inset of the Real-Money Dow (Dow/Gold ratio) illustrates that the underlying trend has been crashing.  The nominal Dow’s wave structure, as well as those in nearly every other major financial index, indicates that the crushing decline already evidenced in the Real-Money Dow will soon materialize in dollar-denominated averages as well.

It’s also an auspicious occasion for the Dow’s long-term Supercycle trend channel.  As Bob Prechter noted in the May issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, he’s been showing these key lines since 1978, a Fibonacci 34 years!  Bob added, “Of the three great selling opportunities of the past quarter century – 2000, 2007 and 2012 – this looks like the last chance for weary shareholders to get out.”

By bumping against the top line of its channel over the past year-and-a-half, the Dow provided ample time for investors to make final preparations for the worst of the bear market, which is still to come.  Of course, the entrenched complacency engendered by two centuries of rising stock prices means very few have probably taken advantage of this opportunity.  We hope you are among the prepared few.  There is no long-term support in the “free fall territory” shown on the chart.”

Terakhir kembali Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com mengingatkan kita bahwa S&P sedang berada di ambang sebuah “ultimate” death cross (lihat grafik di bawah ini):

“This is where a 50-month moving average (currently at 1152) falls below the 200-month moving average (currently 1145).  The Trend BlogSpot tries to make some sense of this very rare event.  They note that the averages came close to crossing in 1978 towards the end of the 1965-82 secular bear market, but just held.  By contrast Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear.  Watch this space.”

Dan tahukah Anda apa yang terjadi saat ini di tahun lalu setelah testimoni semesteran Ben Bernanke di depan Congress AS?  Jika belum, Jim Reid dari Deutsche Bank akan memberikan ‘flashback’ dalam tulisannya yang berjudul If past is prologue, watch out:

“When we look back at the same event a year ago the overall theme of his speech was more or less the same with one major difference.  In that despite one of the weakest recoveries on record inflation was rising rapidly this time last year thanks to one of the strongest post-recession commodities rallies in history.  Indeed CPI was running at 3.6% this time last year versus 1.7% currently.  In terms of market reaction the S&P 500 also had a bigger reaction to Bernanke’s event last year with an intraday high of +1.36% after the Chairman said that “the possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re-emerge implying a need for additional policy support.” A week after Bernanke spoke last year we saw the highs for H2 2012 (1345) before moving aggressively lower into the low 1100s through August-October as Europe’s problems intensified and the US debt ceiling problems came to a head.  One year on and the biggest H2 risks are probably similar.  US data is weakening, Europe’s problems could easily come to a head again and the fiscal cliff could become a major issue, albeit slightly later in the year.  We also now have a China slowdown to contend with.  So the parallels are there.

Pada hari Senin saya akan mulai membahas pasar emas dengan lebih rinci karena – dalam benak saya – aset tersebut dapat memberikan para investor peluang keuntungan yang luar biasa dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. Semoga saya dapat memandu Anda melewati aspek fundamental pasar emas, dan menguraikan apa yang dikatakan oleh grafik secara mendalam.

Selamat menjalani hari Anda dan tetap berhati-hati!

Dibuat Tanggal 19 Juli 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Selloff di Bursa Saham sudah di Ambang Pintu? (Bagian 3)

July 23rd, 2012 No comments

“I wish the governments would step out of the way and let things play out.  They won’t be able to prop up markets forever and when they lose control then the correction will be much more violent and worse.”

-Warren Bevan, www.preciousmetalstockreview.com

Seperti yang diperkirakan, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Selasa kemarin tidak memberikan indikasi baru mengenai rencana pelonggaran moneter lebih lanjut, melainkan hanya menegaskan kembali janji bank sentral AS, yakni: “is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery.” Dan Goldman pun dengan lugas menyebut testimonial Bernanke kemarin: Noncommittal.

Meskipun demikian bursa saham AS mampu ditutup menguat. Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup naik 78.33 poin di 12,805.54 sementara indeks S&P 500 naik 10.03 poin untuk ditutup di level 1,363.67. Akan tetapi perlu menjadi perhatian bahwa kemarin merupakan transaksi perdagangan rata-rata terendah di bursa saham AS, tentunya selain dari hari libur (lihat grafik dari Bloomberg di bawah ini)! Dan penguatannya tersebut dipimpin oleh saham-saham di sektor defensif, yang berarti minat terhadap aset-aset beresiko tidaklah tinggi.

Melanjutkan pembahasan kita mengenai ekonomi dan bursa saham global, banyak kejutan dari data ekonomi makro periode Juni karena dirilis di bawah konsensus pasar seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh tim ekonomi dari BofAML dalam laporannya tanggal 10 Juni 2012 bahwa 14 dari 20 data terakhir untuk periode Juni dirilis di bawah ekspektasi:

“Over the next several weeks we will get more ‘hard’ data for June. The most important will be retail sales, industrial production and the durable goods orders report. Retail sales look likely to disappoint as weak chain store sales offset the modest tick higher in auto sales. And given the collapse in the ISM, we expect manufacturing production and durable goods orders to be soft. This data will determine if the FOMC has enough ammo to ease aggressively on August 1st (or wait til September 13th) which we expect to only be an extension of forward rate guidance to mid-2015 from late-2014 (and not the panacea of NEW QE). BofAML remains more concerned with the consensus outlook for H2 – particularly Q4 (with 14% YoY EPS growth expected despite just a 1% GDP growth rate) – as the recession in Europe and high level of uncertainty ahead of the US fiscal cliff will likely lead to slowing growth in H2. And for those hanging their hats on the housing recovery, it will not be enough to save the rest of the economy – Housing construction is now only 2.3% of GDP compared to more than 6% prior to the crisis. This means we need a decisive turn to significantly matter for GDP growth. In addition, we believe it would take a sustained period of price increases to reverse the negative wealth and confidence effects of the housing collapse. Households remain skeptical about the home as a store of wealth or an investment.

BofAML: Macro starting to impact micro

According to our US equity and quant strategy team, analysts started to meaningfully take down estimates in April, when US economic data began surprising to the downside (Chart 1) and as concerns around Europe and slowing growth in China reemerged. Coupled with a drop in oil prices and a stronger dollar, expectations have been driven down by macro headwinds, and guidance has started to falter. At this point, bottom-up consensus is expecting S&P 500 EPS of $25.23, representing earnings growth of 5% YoY (flat ex. Financials), which is slightly below our estimate of $25.50.

But bigger problem is the 2nd half

The US equity and quant strategy team remains more concerned with the consensus outlook for the second half of the year, particularly expectations for 4Q. Analysts expect 14% YoY earnings growth in the fourth quarter, despite the fact that our economists expect just 1% GDP growth. Estimate revisions have begun to roll over, with analysts now making more cuts than increases to EPS on a three-month basis, but we think this trend may have further to go. The US equity and quant strategy team has taken a more cautious stance on their earnings estimates for companies with high foreign or US government exposure, given the recession in Europe and high level of uncertainty ahead of the US fiscal cliff that will likely lead to slowing growth in the second half of this year.”

Selain itu, Small Business Confidence juga merosot dalam kapasitas terbesarnya selama 24 bulan hingga mencapai level terendah sejak Oktober 2011. Jadi ini bukanlah pertanda baik bagi lapangan kerja AS maupun pemilihan kembali Presiden Obama.

What Do the Charts Say?

Tom Fitzpatrick, seorang analis dari Citibank, memberikan laporan dan grafik yang sungguh menarik untuk diperhatikan kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) 12 Juli lalu. Berikut adalah komentar dan grafik-grafiknya:

“German 2-year yields still negative and U.S. long end yields moving lower tells us that there is a want and/or need for safety.  We would still expect a test of the trend lows on US 10 year yields at 1.43% and US 30 year yields at 2.50% in the short term.  The next support on Japanese 10 year yields is at 71-72 basis points.  That does not provide a good backdrop for equities where we now see bearish outside days on all major US Indices.

The price action over the past 3 months remains similar to that seen after the 2007 trend highs.  The initial move down (at that time) was 10.7% before we got a bounce of 8.3%.  From there we fell away again and trended down to the 200 week moving average.  This time, from the trend high, the initial leg down was 10.9% before a bounce of 8.5%. Now we have started to roll over again.  A similar follow through would suggest a move down to the 200 week moving average currently at 1,137 over the coming weeks.

Kemudian Barry Knapp dari Barclays mencatat – berdasarkan tulisan Bernanke – bahwa stimulus moneter lanjutan baru akan terjadi pada saat ekspektasi inflasi menurun secara signifikan (berlawanan dengan penurunan dangkal indeks S&P 500):

It is the risk of deflation that will trigger a policy reaction. Current conditions are not even close to levels that have warranted additional stimulus in the past – which we estimate to be a 2% 5Y5Y forward inflation breakeven rate. In order for that level to be triggered – based on the post-crisis relationship between equities and inflation expectations – the S&P 500 trailing earnings yield would need to rise over 8.2% implying an S&P 500 level near 1200. Tracking inflation expectations is critical to any NEW QE hope – and for now, there is none on the horizon, no matter how much everyone clamors for it.

The trigger for previous extreme monetary easing has been around the 2% level (red dotted line) for 5Y5Y inflation breakevens…

The small red and green arrows above (as we noted in a previous post) show the risk flare around Europe’s initial re-emergence into crisis which was quickly grabbed as managers bought the dip on the Bernanke Put hope.

This implies around an 8.2% trailing earnings yield or an S&P 500 level around 1200…

Simply put - without break-evens dropping, the Bernanke Put will not arrive (as the printer-in-chief would implicitly believe it to be too inflationary) and so asset values will need to fall (on the back of real earnings disappointment or fundamental macro deterioration) in order to bring the FOMC in.”

Data/Charts: Bloomberg

Lakshman Achuthan, pendiri the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), kepada Tom Keene di Bloomberg Television pekan lalu mengatakan hal yang sangat menarik mengenai ekonomi AS. Mari kita lihat grafik di bawah ini, yang menunjukkan bahwa ECRI sudah mengalami penurunan, serta mari kita simak kutipan wawancara mereka:

Achuthan on whether he can reaffirm his recession call from last year:

“Yeah…I think a lot of people forget what our call was. What we said back in December was that the most likely start date for the recession would be in Q1 and if not then, by the middle of 2012. I’m here to reaffirm that. I think we’re in a recession. I think we’re in a recession already. As I said back there, it is very rare that you know you’re going into recession when you’re going into recession. It often takes some big hit on top of the head. In the last recession, it took Lehman to wake people up and the recession before, it took 9/11.”

On how ECRI defines recession:

“It is not our definition. It is the definition of what a business cycle is, which was established by my mentor Jeffrey Moore’s mentor Wesley Mitchell back in the 1920s. What is a recession? It is not a statistic; it is a process between production, employment, income and sales. When you look at those four measures, they are rolling over.”

“It is not all about GDP. It is about jobs. It is about income and sales. A recession is a vicious interplay among output input employment, income and sales. When you look at 2001, you can’t find two negative quarters in a row, yet you lost 3 million jobs. Or half the value of the NASDAQ. How are you going to tell someone that wasn’t a recession? When you look at the data today, you see that industrial production is off of its April high. Manufacturing and trade sales, much broader than retail sales, is off its December high. Real personal income growth, which does not always go negative during a recession, has been negative for several months so it is consistent with a recession having already started.”

On what the relative optimists get wrong in economics today:

“I think there is this belief that somehow government or a central bank will stave off a recession. For the last 220 years, you do some history with Hamilton, which ended in a duel by the way…you have had 47 recessions. Why are we going to avoid the 48th? Here we are in the wake three years out of the last recession. You see this leading indicator. It leads, it is the drivers of the business cycle and it is doing this bumping down. People look it that and they say, each time they throw in some money or do something, you get less for it. I am surprised given the trillions of dollars spent around the world that that indicator is as weak as it is. That is a recessionary reading.”

On why the U.S. is struggling:

“We have entered these so-called yo-yo years. We have been seeing weaker and weaker expansion since the mid 1970s. We have not been freaked out by it because the business cycle has been pretty mellow over the last 20-25 years. Until now. So if you have a more volatile business cycle and low growth, you get more recessions and you start to destroy people’s ability to earn. In particular, when we talked slower expansion, we’re not talking GDP, we’re talking jobs, too. In particular you’re seeing no jobs growth.”

Terakhir mari kita lihat analisa singkat Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com berdasarkan sebuah grafik yang menarik dalam artikelnya yang berjudul: It’s Different This Time: The Scariest Equity Market Chart Around”:

“While analogs for periods past have been shown time and time again, the striking similarity of the last four months of this year and the same period last year is becoming extremely worrisome. The rips and dips are of almost perfectly equal size and duration and retail and professional participation is also very similar. July 21st marked the top last year after failing to break the highs of a July 4th week peak (which occurred on low average trade size). It would appear the bulls are hoping that it’s different this time – or else it is very scary with S&P 500 set for the magic 1200 Bernanke Put strike very soon.

Each green and red arrow is identical from the current period to last year’s. Notice the dark red arrow indicating the yellow bar (h/t @eminiwatch) indicating amateur or retail investors getting wrong-footed and then a subsequent failed rally with a lower high… which lead to the plunge – that would take us below 1200 in the S&P 500 currently…”

Hari ini (18 Juli) kita akan menantikan rilis data Claimant Count Change Inggris, yakni jumlah masyarakat Inggris yang mengajukan claim tunjangan pengangguran yang pada bulan Mei meningkat di luar dugaan hingga 8,100, dan di bulan Juni diproyeksikan akan mengalami peningkatan kembali hingga 9,700.

Dari Amerika Serikat di hari yang sama akan dinantikan rilis Building Permits untuk basis tahunan yang pada bulan Mei naik ke level tertinggi selama 44 bulan dengan mencapai 784,000 unit dan untuk periode Juni diproyeksikan 768,000 unit.

Dan berikutnya kembali kita akan dengar laporan kebijakan moneter Ben Bernanke kepada the House Financial Services Committee, serta laporan persediaan minyak dan petroleum AS dari EIA (Energy Information Administration) untuk pekan yang berakhir 13 Juli lalu.

Terakhir saya akan persembahkan Quote of the Day beserta sebuah gambar yang bagus yang mungkin bernilai ribuan kata: “Government is good at one thing: It knows how to break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, ‘See, if it weren’t for the government, you wouldn’t be able to walk.’” – Harry Browne

Dibuat Tanggal 18 Juli 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Selloff di Bursa Saham sudah di Ambang Pintu? (Bagian 2)

July 18th, 2012 No comments

Does central banking retard the economy by providing liquidity insurance and a backstop to bad companies that would not otherwise be saved under a free market “bailout” (like that of 1907)? And is it this effect – that I call zombification – that is the force that has prevented Japan from fully recovering from its housing bubble, and that is keeping the West depressed from 2008?  Will we only return to growth once the bad assets and companies have been liquidated?  That conclusion, I think, is becoming inescapable.”

-John Aziz of Azizonomics

Pasar sedang menanti testimoni semesteran U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, di depan Congress pada hari ini dan besok (Selasa-Rabu 17-18 Juli 2012).  Investor akan mencermati kalimat-kalimatnya yang mungkin bisa menjadi petunjuk untuk membantu memecahkan salah satu teka-teki paling sulit bagi perekonomian dunia: apa yang dibutuhkan untuk membuat bank sentral AS melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya lebih lanjut?

Pemangkasan suku bunga dari bank-bank sentral Eropa, Cina and Brasil di awal bulan untuk membangkitkan pertumbuhan ekonominya masing-masing, menggarisbawahi meningkatnya kekhawatiran tentang pelambatan ekonomi global. Tetapi menurut sejumlah orang Bernanke tetap tidak akan berkomitmen, setidaknya untuk saat ini.

Salah satu dari mereka adalah Bill Fleckenstein, President of Fleckenstein Capital, kepada King World News mengatakan, “I think the central banks of the world, and in particular the Fed, are close to where they are going to panic and do something big …  If we get some serious stock market weakness, on top of the economic deterioration, then I think the Fed would panic right then.

Fleckenstein juga menambahkan: “What I am salivating over is the chance to really press my gold position.  I think the next leg is going to be really, really powerful.  When I sense that the Fed is going to pull the trigger, I’m going to make my gold investments a lot more aggressive than they are right now …  The American people are going to realize at some point they need to own gold.

The Fed’s track record is absolutely spectacular at one thing and that is destroying the value of the dollar.  And when the Americans start stampeding in, on top of the other people, and everybody finally gets the joke, which they are all going to get before this era of central bank money printing is ended, there is going to be the big, unridable phase of the bull market in gold that’s going to take place.  That’s in front of us.  It’s probably closer than most people think.”

Dengan kata lain, para petinggi bank sentral seluruh dunia belum menekan tombol panik, tapi nanti pada akhirnya mereka harus melakukannya. Nampaknya hanya masalah waktu, menunggu kondisi yang tepat yang mungkin paling efektif untuk menerapkan stimulus berikutnya.

Tetapi bagi sebagian lain memperingatkan bahwa QE atau quantitative easing bukanlah segalanya, dan bahwa the Fed pada akhirnya tidak dapat mengendalikan pasar. Misalnya Richard Russell, Godfather-nya penulis media cetak, baru-baru ini mengungkapkan beberapa hal menarik tentang saham & manipulasi besar the Fed di hariannya Dow Theory Letters:

“The stock market possesses the ability to forecast coming events.  But the periodic spates of Fed stimulation have thrown some sand into the stock market’s delicate machine.  For instance, is it a forecast of better times when the Fed introduces a new session of QE?  In other words, is Fed-stimulation of the stock market a dependable forecaster of improving business?  Personally, I don’t think so.

Thus, we see the stock market ‘up on Fed-created stilts’ and at the same time we see depressing economic news in the newspaper headlines.  I’m stating that deflationary and deleveraging forces are still in command, and all the Fed’s manipulations are, and will, fail to turn the bear market into a new bull market.

Some months ago Fed Chairman Bernanke apologized to the world on the part of the Fed, because the Fed had contracted the money supply in 1938, thereby bringing about a market crash.  Said Bernanke, we’re sorry for the Fed’s mistake, but I promise that it won’t happen again.

Obviously, Bernanke believes that the Fed can control deflation and deleveraging as well as the primary trend of the market.  Personally, I’m afraid that we’ll see the time when Bernanke will be forced to eat his words.

Like the great tide of the ocean, the primary trend of the stock market functions in its own way, this despite the desires of man. The Bible tells us of the instance when Jesus commanded the ocean to become quiet and the waves to die down.  The ocean reacted exactly as Jesus commanded.  All well and good, but it is well to remember that Ben S. Bernanke is no Jesus.”

Kemarin saya sudah mulai menjelaskan kenapa saya berpikir selloff di bursa saham sudah di ambang pintu, mari kita lanjutkan 7 alasan berikutnya.  Dan Amoss memberikan tulisannya yang sangat bagus pada The Daily Reckoning (http://dailyreckoning.com), berjudul Seven Reasons to Sell Stocks Short, yang menjelaskan mengapa investor harus lebih waspada, serta koreksi tajam pasar sudah sedemikian dekat lebih dari yang anda duga:

“With all that’s going on, would you believe the market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, is only 4% off its high?  Some folks interpret this fact as investors “shrugging off” bad developments, looking ahead to some unseen, glorious future that none of us individually can imagine.

But the “wisdom of crowds” is overrated.  I see an epidemic of denial – denial at a level last seen near the 2007 market peak, when central bank policy was thought to be propping up stock prices.  That denial didn’t end well.

Psychology and sentiment are important in markets, but not as important as overwhelming negative evidence, including the following seven reasons to remain bearish (the reasons to be bullish are well-known among institutional investors who have nervous clients’ money fully invested):

  1. The market shrugged off the abysmal ISM report last week, but it shouldn’t have.  This measure of US manufacturing activity dropped to 49.7 in June from 53.5 in May.  This is the first time since July 2009 that we’ve seen a sub-50 ISM figure.  Even more importantly, the index of new orders fell from 60.1 to 47.8 – its steepest month-to-month decline in a decade.
  2. Central banks are panicking and easing policy, yet they’re still behind the curve in propping up stressed credit markets.  Yesterday, the ECB, Bank of England and People’s Bank of China all eased policy.  The Chinese in particular are starting to realize that easing credit policies would only worsen its overcapacity problems and are starting to think about the hard (and “growth”-depressing) work of restructuring a hugely imbalanced Chinese economy.  At this point, the Federal Reserve is the only game in town.  The Fed disappointed speculators in June by merely extending Operation Twist, and is unlikely to fire another volley of digital cash until the stock market and economy are in far more panicked states.
  3. I didn’t address the so-called “plan” issued by the European Union a week ago because there was nothing to address: no details, no firm cash commitments and only vague promises to have another plan.  Yet the stock market rallied anyway.  The proof is in the pudding (and the “smart money” moves are reflected in the bond markets): Spanish government bond yields are soaring above 7% as I write.  A real plan for Spanish banks will have to involve haircuts for shareholders and bondholders.  There simply is not enough money – nor is there enough political capital – to bail out so many parties.  We will see fewer month-long European vacations among the bailout crew this summer, and more emergency conference calls and meetings.
  4. Leading economic indicators, including the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, rolled over in the spring and remain negative.
  5. Nonresidential fixed-asset investment has peaked, as many companies go on an investment strike.  Policy uncertainty is too great.  The job market tends to follow the investment cycle; it has softened in recent months, including the data from this morning’s payroll report.
  6. Forward earnings estimates for the major stock indexes are rolling over, starting from record levels and record-high profit margins.  This is something we’ve discussed frequently in the past, but we’re seeing more and more earnings warnings related to squeezed profit margins.
  7. Valuations are not low enough to compensate stock investors for all of these risks.  Trailing earnings will likely turn out to be a good deal higher than forward earnings.  This makes trailing PEs deceptively low and creates a strong head wind against future growth in dividends.

In summary, hold your short positions.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada 12 Juli lalu, Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com telah menjelaskan keterkaitan antara pasar saham dan obligasi serta kemungkinan arah pergerakan saham ke depannya dalam tulisan yang berjudul What Do Bonds Say About S&P 500 “Fair Value”:

“On a day when the reflexive NEW QE knife-catchers seem to have stepped away from the desk, we thought it useful to get some cognitive clarity on where exactly Treasuries think the post-FOMC-disappointment equity market is likely to end up in the short-term (especially as they retrace all the way down to yesterday’s low yields). It seems that bonds believe ES needs to be well under 1300 before deflationary concerns rear their ugly head and NEW QE can be back on the table.

It seems the more things change, the more they stay the same as hope fades once again – just like in April…”

Berikutnya Chris Vermeulen dari www.GoldAndOilGuy.com juga memberikan forecast jangka panjang untuk bursa saham (& pasar emas) pada 8 Juli lalu berdasarkan inter-market analysis, terutama hubungan kontras antara bursa saham dan indeks dolar.  Di bawah ini adalah grafik dan komentar-komentarnya untuk mengetahui bagaimana prediksi dan saran-sarannya:

“The weekly dollar chart is VERY IMPORTANT to watch as a short term trader and long term investor because trend changes in the dollar means you open positions will also likely change direction.

So, if we apply technical analysis to the dollar chart as seen below. You will notice we are able to create a market forecast and predict roughly where price is likely to move and how long it should take to get there. If the dollar can break above the red resistance level then we can expect a rally for 4 – 8 weeks and a price target around the 87-88 level.

If this is the case then stocks and commodities would likely do the inverse price action and move lower, sharply lower…

Stock Market Predictions & Gold Market Forecast Conclusion:

In short, the next weekly candle stick on the dollar chart could be a game changer for those who are long the overall stock market.

I will admit that the current market conditions are not easy to trade because of all the headline news rolling out of Europe each week along with economic data. And I feel as though we have been tip toeing through a mine field for the past 12+ months waiting for extremely negative news are extremely positive news to trigging a wave of buying or selling that will make our jaw drop, but it has yet to happen. Remember always use stops and don’t get over committed in a headline driven market.”

Yang terakhir adalah The Hope-To-Reality Gap, oleh Michael Cembalest dari JP Morgan:

“Europe looks as bad as we thought it would, but our US economic outlook was too optimistic.  US equities have stayed relatively stable thanks to resilient corporate profits and a ton of liquidity.  However, with negative pre-announcements mounting (and corporate cash piles starting to burn a little), we suspect the unusual disconnect between profits and economics will end soon enough.  As the following two charts show, when US economic data has been generally sub-par (as exemplified by the plunge in Citigroup’s economic surprise indicator), US equities have deteriorated notably in the past.  For now, it appears there is a 15-20% disconnect in the S&P 500’s performance relative to the real economy’s performance – and the current ‘hope’ gap looks extremely similar to last summer’s before reality set in.

Compare this year’s dislocation between the economy (red) and the S&P 500 (blue) to last year’s …

It would seem empirically at least that this hope-to-reality gap is around 15-20% in the S&P 500 – among the largest on record.

Either we are about to see a surge in economic data back to positive surprises or the S&P 500 faces a rude reality.

Bursa Asia telah bangkit selama 3 hari perdagangan beruntun di tengah spekulasi bahwa Ben Bernanke akan memberikan indikasi mengenai stimulus lanjutan pada testimoni semesterannya hari ini (Selasa 17 April 2012).  Indeks Nikkei 255 naik 0.5 persen setelah pada Senin tutup memperingati libur nasionalnya. Indeks S&P/ASX 200 Australia naik 0.8 persen dan indeks Kospi Korea Selatan naik 0.7 persen saat tulisan ini dibuat.

Namun demikian saya pikir Bernanke sulit untuk membenarkan stimulus moneter lanjutan dalam waktu dekat ini, terutama setelah harga minyak naik untuk 4 hari perdagangan beruntun hingga Senin (16 Juli 2012) lalu dan mendekati harga $90/barel.

Hari ini (Selasa 17 Juli 2012) sejumlah besar data datang dari Eropa dan Amerika Serikat, yakni indeks Sentimen Ekonomi ZEW Jerman yang diproyeksikan sedikit membaik ke level -14,5, setelah jatuh tak terduga Juni sebelumnya pada tingkat tercepat sejak Oktober 1998 di -16,9. Juga data inflasi Inggris layak disebut, di mana ada estimasi penurunan hingga 2,7%.

Berikutnya adalah data inflasi AS yang kemungkinan masih dirilis flat sebelum menuju fokus utama yakni testimony semesteran Ben Bernanke.  Tak jarang pidatonya menyebabkan volatilitas di pasar jadi sebaiknya lakukan penyesuaian pada posisi transaksi Anda.

Di samping ini, agar tetap gembira,  saya persembahkan suatu  gambar yang lucu mengenai Ben Bernanke.

Dan bahkan Dilbert sepertinya mengerti bahwa para deposan sebenarnya adalah …  SUCKERS! Sungguh lucu.

Dibuat Tanggal 17 Juli 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Selloff di Bursa Saham sudah di Ambang Pintu? (Bagian 1)

July 17th, 2012 No comments

Booms last longer because optimism is fed by slowly rising emotions involving hope and greed, which, because they are tempered by caution, can reach maximum intensity only over a long period of time and fulfillment only after prolonged effort.

Busts are swifter because pessimism is fed by fast-flaming emotions such as fear and anger, which can be realized in a flash of destructive action.”

-Robert R. Prechter

Pertama saya ingin mengatakan bahwa senang rasanya kembali dari liburan saya di Bali, dan dengan penuh semangat lagi saya akan kembali membahas perkembangan terakhir pasar global. Kita akan langsung menuju pada apa yang terjadi Jumat lalu dan pandangan singkat untuk ke depannya.

Bursa saham global dan harga minyak mengalami rally pada Jumat lalu setelah data ekonomi Cina meredam kekhawatiran terhadap potensi hard landing perekonomian terbesar kedua dunia tersebut dan potensi pukulan lebih besar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia.

Investor mengabaikan survei yang menunjukkan sentimen konsumen AS kembali turun di bulan Juli ke level terendahnya selama 7 bulan karena masyarakatnya pesimis terhadap prospek keuangan dan pekerjaan mereka. Indeks sentimen konsumen dari Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan untuk rilis awal periode Juli merosot ke level 72.0 dari 73.2 Juni sebelumnya.

Di pekan ini fokus akan tersorot tajam pada US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, yang akan memberikan laporan ekonomi semesteran kepada Congress pada Selasa dan Rabu (17 & 18 Juli 2012) – atau sehari setelah laporan terkini IMF untuk The World Economic Outlook.

Jika ada indikasi QE3 dari Bernanke, saya proyeksikan sentimen pasar terhadap aset-aset beresiko (risk on) akan kembali bangkit dengan cepat dan pasar seperti Treasuries dan dolar AS akan melemah. Sebaliknya, jika tidak maka downtrend yang sudah berkembang belakangan ini mayoritas pada bursa saham, komoditas dan mata uang (forex) nampaknya akan berlanjut.

Reuters melaporkan bahwa “the main questions most investors want Bernanke to answer are how close is the central bank to launching a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) and what kind of other tools might it consider using.

The coming week see updates on the US inflation pictures as well as data on housing starts and industrial production which should highlight the ongoing slowdown in the economy, adding to recent weak job numbers in paving the way for more easing.

Spain is also going to be in investors’ sights in the coming week when euro area finance ministers meet on July 20 to agree the final details of its banking sector bailout.  Madrid will also auction two-year, five-year and seven-year bonds on Thursday, as yields on its debt inch ever higher to unsustainable levels.”

Hari ini (16 Juli 2012) data Retail Sales AS Juni dijadwalkan akan dirilis, bersamaan dengan rilis data NY-Fed Manufacturing. Untuk kali pertama dalam 3 bulan terakhir, retail sales Juni AS diproyeksikan akan mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang merefleksikan kenaikan demand pada otomotif, demikian dikatakan para ekonom.

Meskipun indeks saham Standard & Poor’s 500 mengalami kenaikan harian terbesarnya selama 2 pekan pada Jumat lalu , tidak demikian di bursa saham Asia yang relatif masih ditutup melemah karena pasar saham berjangka AS dan euro masih tertekan saat perdagangannya berjalan.

Saya berpendapat bahwa kita berada di titik puncak koreksi pasar yang lebih besar, jadi saya ingin mendorong investor agar menjadi lebih waspada namun cekatan dalam mengambil keputusan untuk beberapa minggu ke depan. Belum ada yang benar-benar membuat saya berubah pikiran selama cuti, dan saya masih berpikir bahwa mayoritas aset-aset beresiko (saham, mata uang seperti euro dan pound sterling, dan komoditas pada umumnya) kemungkinan besar akan mengalami tekanan dalam jangka pendek hingga menengah ke depan.

Oleh karenanya, saya akan lebih banyak mengulas bursa saham di pekan ini karena sejumlah indikasi pelemahan dan potensi penurunan yang cukup besar. Sedangkan di pekan depan kita akan lebih memperhatikan pasar emas, dan coba melihat apakah waktunya untuk membeli atau… malah justru menjual emas.

Akan bijaksana jika tetap memiliki pikiran bahwa ada sejumlah WARNINGS belakangan ini mengenai malapetaka keuangan global yang akan terjadi. Secara pribadi saya pikir sebaiknya tidak menganggap enteng warnings tersebut, tetap terus mewaspadainya agar siap jika ekonomi dunia mengalami pukulan besar kembali.

Nouriel Roubini sang “Dr. Doom” mengatakan bahwa krisis finansial saat ini lebih buruk dari yang terjadi di AS pada tahun 2008 “because like 2008 you will have an economic and financial crisis but unlike 2008, you are running out of policy bullets.

In 2008, you could cut rates; do QE1, QE2; you could do fiscal stimulus; you could backstop/ring fence/guarantee banks and everybody else.  Today, more QEs are becoming less and less effective because the problems are of solvency not liquidity.  Fiscal deficits are already so large and you cannot bail out the banks because 1) there is a political opposition to it; and 2) governments are near-insolvent – they cannot bailout themselves let alone their banks. The problem is that we are running out of policy rabbits to pull out of the hat!”

Lebih lanjut Graham Summers, Chief Market Strategist pada Phoenix Capital, mengingatkan bahwa “Angela Merkel is up for re-election next year.  There is no way on earth she’ll opt to let Germany get dragged down by the EU.  She’s even said she will not allow Eurobonds for “as long as [she] lives.”

This is not empty rhetoric.  This is fact.  Germany has expressed its intentions dozens of times in the last month: NO Eurobonds and NO guarantee of EU banking deposits.

The reasons for this are simple: EITHER option renders Germany insolvent.  It’s already teetering on insolvency to begin with.  But to allow Eurobonds or some kind of guarantee of the EU banking system to occur on top of the money Germany has already spent propping up the EU will take Germany down.

The German economy is already slowing.  Most Germans are fed up with the Euro.  Merkel would rather die than let her country become like Greece (which the creation of Eurobonds or EU deposit guarantees would most assuredly result in).

So Germany is tapped out as well.  This leaves … NOBODY.

Again, Europe is out of money.  End of story.  This is the truth and investing based on the idea of some magical bailout occurring is like investing on Hank Paulson’s Bazooka policy for Fannie and Freddie (three months later the markets imploded).”

Juga pendiri Tea Party, Karl Denninger, dengan sangat gamblang menjelaskan situasi di AS:

“If we keep deficit spending we are simply debasing the purchasing power of the common man in a puerile attempt to pacify the people and avoid holding the financiers who were responsible for this debacle, including Bernanke, Greenspan, Paulson and Geithner along with both Obama and George W Bush to account.  This attempt is mathematically doomed to fail as median family income has not moved which means that we’re shifting an ever-greater part of the population to social programs like food stamps and other handouts while the taxpaying productive population continues to shrink.

This is exactly how Greece and Spain went down the bowl and we’re right behind them unless we stop this crap right now.

We cannot “bend the curve” or look toward the “intermediate term”; that was exactly the siren song in Europe and it has led to catastrophe as “tomorrow” never comes!  The “intermediate term” is usually defined as three to five years out – we heard of the “intermediate term” in 2008 but now it’s 2012 and none of the retractions in that spending have occurred – the claim that they would be undertaken was a lie.

We must stop the stupid right now!

Arithmetic is a bitch.  It’s politically agnostic and cold-hearted.  Exponential growth, as I have repeatedly pointed out, is utterly unsustainable over the long term.  It doesn’t matter if you want these sorts of schemes to work or not; the longer you continue to pretend that there is some path forward that achieves these goals the worse the outcome is when you discover that you’re wrong.”

And last but not least, “LEAP/E2020 has never seen the chronological convergence of such a series of explosive and so fundamental factors (economy, finances, geopolitical …) since 2006, the start of its work on the global systemic crisis.  Logically, in our modest attempt to regularly publish a “crisis weather forecast”, we must therefore give our readers a “Red Alert” because the upcoming events which are readying themselves to shake the world system next September/October belong to this category.”

Saat saya berbicara pada sejumlah investor di Indonesia, mayoritas mereka optimis bahwa Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) akan mampu mempertahankan kenaikannya dan bahkan optimis akan menembus level tertinggi yang baru di tahun 2012 ini jika ekonomi masih bertumbuh dengan pesat. Dengan kata lain, mereka JAUH terlalu berpuas diri karena asumsi bahwa para pembuat kebijakan di negara-negara maju akan menemukan solusi ajaib untuk mengatasi permasalahan yang sedang mereka hadapi.

Tapi begitu kita lolos dari badai ternyata justru menghadapi kenyataan bahwa sebenarnya krisis kredit kian memburuk, saya kira banyak dari mereka yang mungkin akan berubah pikiran dengan cepat. Pada akhirnya itulah ketika pasar akan berada dalam panic mode, sementara investor yang cerdas telah menghasilkan banyak uang dengan menjual aset-aset beresiko …

What Do the Charts Say?

Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan King World News pada 27 Juni 2012, analis Citibank, Tom Fitzpatrick, mengatakan: “We expect to see a reemergence of the stresses, as well as the equity markets beginning to fall again.” Moreover, here is what he had to say about deteriorating consumer confidence: “We’ve been looking at this for a while, and, if you look at the overlay of the consumer confidence index vs. the equity markets (see chart below), what it quite clearly shows, contrary to what most people think, is that the consumer sentiment drives the equity markets rather than vice versa.”

“We saw that in 2000, 2007, and again in 2011, that when consumer confidence peaked and turned, it’s often an early warning sign that markets are headed lower.  Within a couple of months you started to see equity markets come under pressure.

It’s been no different this year, with the consumer confidence turning in February.  Then we saw the S&P turn in April, and the Dow top out on the first trading day of May.  Looking at the chart, we’re convinced it’s a very strong double-top formation, very similar to what we saw back in 1980.

The suggestion to us is that we are headed all the way back down again, possibly even to the lows that we saw in 2011, when we got down to about 41 on the index.  This is likely to weigh on equities.”

Dan dalam sebuah artikel berjudul Bearish Enough To Buy? The Real Fear Index Says Not So Fast, Tyler Durden pada www.zerohedge.com membicarakan tentang indikator sentimen yang sangat menarik:

“All day long we are bombarded with surveys of sentiment. When positive; all is well. When negative they are used by any and every long-only manager as yet another money-on-the-sideline-like as justification to be the contrarian and buy-the-dip. There are however many times when the survey of people’s ‘views’ is quite different from their positioning (cognitive dissonance aside) and we prefer to look at real market sentiment indications for our signals. Case in point is CSFB’s Fear Index – which, unlike VIX, measures the sentiment skew in options prices (how much more bearish or bullish put options are relative to call options).”

CSFB Fear Index vs S&P 500…

“In general, it shows a slight leading indication for larger-trend equity movements but most critically – it can signal when real market positions have become too bullish (or overly confident) or too bearish (overly conservative).

The fact is that the options markets are NOT currently overly bearish here – as they were in Q4 (green oval) – providing the short-squeeze-levered ammo for a rally here; just as options markets were overly bullish (red oval) as the end of LTRO2 began – which provided the initial levered-long-squeeze ammo for the current sell-off.

So the next time you hear someone saying how negative sentiment is – and that’s a reason to buy – show them this chart (of real positions – not a survey!) and tell them to move along.

The bottom line is that options prices (or real market sentiment) are in sync with equity prices here and show neither extreme bullish or bearishness.”

Sebelum mengakhiri laporan ini, saya ingin mempersembahkan sebuah analisa fundamental Michael Pento, dari Pento Portfolio Strategies, yang baru-baru ini berhasil menjelaskan kondisi pasar global terkini hanya dalam 2 paragraf:

“The Fed is moving towards QE III, but will need to see any one of the  following three conditions to be met before embarking on further monetary dilution: The unemployment rate to climb back to 8.5%, from the current 8.2%; the S&P 500 falling below 1,200, from the current level of 1,330; or the YOY increase in CPI to fall below 1 percent, from the 1.7% of today.

In the interim, global markets and economies will continue to be pulled lower by the gravitational force associated with a deleveraging deflationary depression.  Gold and other precious metals will continue to tread water until the full monetary assault begins from the ECB and the Fed.”

Dan mengenai ‘Liborgate’ yang belakangan ini menjadi isu yang sering dibicarakan, berikut saya persembahkan gambar yang mudah-mudahan bisa membuat Anda tersenyum.

Terima kasih atas perhatiannya dan semoga pekan ini akan menjadi yang terbaik untuk Anda semua!

Dibuat Tanggal 16 Juli 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags: