Apakah Double Dip Recession di Depan Mata? (Bagian 6)
“You can avoid reality. But you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.”
“It is time to take our heads out of the sand, dust ourselves off and embrace the consequences.”
-Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards
Hari ini (Rabu 15 Agustus 2012) kita akan menantikan sejumlah data ekonomi penting dari Inggris, yakni Claimant Count Change yang pada Juni lalu dirilis 6100 lebih rendah dari 6900 yang dicapai Mei sebelumnya. Angka keseluruhan mereka yang menganggur di Inggris mencapai 2,58 juta di bulan Juni. Dan pasar tidak banyak mengantisipasi perubahan pada rilisnya untuk periode Juli pada hari ini.
Selain itu juga data Unemployment Rate Inggris yang mencapai 8,1% di bulan Mei, yang diperkirakan akan sama dengan rilisnya untuk periode Juni.
Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah MPC Meeting Minutes setelah pertemuan dewan MPC terakhir diputuskan bahwa suku bunga Inggris masih dipertahankan di level 0,5% serta demikian halnya dengan asset purchase program yang masih sebesar £375 milyar karena kewaspadaan dewan moneter bank sentral Inggris tersebut terhadap inflasi. Pasar akan menganalisa dengan seksama laporan tertulis pertemuan tersebut jika terjadi breakdown pada hasil voting baik untuk putusannya terhadap suku bunga maupun QE. Jika pola voting ternyata lebih hawkish dari pada estimasinya maka akan mendukung tren bullish untuk mata uang pound sterling.
Kemudian di sesi Amerika Serikat akan dinantikan data Inflasi. Laporan bulanan akan mengacu pada perubahan utama dalam indeks harga konsumen untuk bulan Juli 2012. Biro Statistik Tenaga Kerja AS telah melaporkan bahwa harga konsumen AS bulan Juni dirilis flat karena kembali turunnya biaya energi. Ini adalah rilis flat selama 3 periode berturut-turut. Sementara untuk core prices-nya, di luar harga makanan dan energy yang volatile, meningkat 0,2% untuk 4 bulan berturut-turut, akibat naiknya biaya perawatan medis. Untuk periodenya di bulan Juli yang akan dirilis malam ini, diproyeksikan akan mengalami kenaikan yang berkisar antara 0,2% sampai 0,3%.
Ini adalah bagian ke-6 atau terakhir dari seri mengenai kemungkinan double dip recession yang akan dialami dunia dalam waktu dekat. Saya tidak bermaksud memberikan Anda hal-hal yang negatif, namun hanya ingin menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi dunia memang melamban kembali. Oleh karenanya ini bukan waktu yang tepat untuk ‘memendam kepala kita ke dalam pasir’ dan berpura-pura seolah segala sesuatunya akan baik-baik saja. Justru kita harus mempersiapkan diri masing-masing dan menyesuaikan portofolio kita agar dapat mempertahankan kesejahteraan dan/atau malah dapat meningkatkannya di masa-masa sulit.
Untuk memulai laporan hari ini saya memiliki suatu peringatan singkat namun cukup menyentuh dari Michael Snyder, seorang pendiri sekaligus editor pada The Economic Collapse, bahwa seharusnya kita tidak mempercayai Ben Bernanke dapat “memulihkan” perekonomian.
“Do you want to know one of my favorite indicators that the US economy is sliding into recession?
In a previous article, I noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made the following statement to Congress recently: “At this point we don’t see a double dip recession. We see continued moderate growth.”
As I mentioned the other day, Bernanke has a track record of failure that is absolutely embarrassing. Back on January 10, 2008 Bernanke mad the following statement: “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
That turned out to be a great call, didn’t it?
On June 10, 2008 he doubled down on his call that the US economy was going to avoid a recession: “The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.”
Just before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed Bernanke made this statement: “The GSEs are adequately capitalized. They are in no danger of failing.”
And there are dozens of other examples just like these.
This is the guy running our economic system.
The Wall Street Journal is already even using the “D word” to describe what we are experiencing. Just the other day, the Wall Street Journal ran an article that asked this question: “Do Two Recessions Equal One Depression?”
Sadly, this is just the leading edge of what is coming. By the time 2014 or 2015 rolls around, we are going to look back and long for the “good old days” of 2011 and 2012.
Over the next few years, the unemployment rate is going to skyrocket and poverty in the United States is going to get a whole lot worse.
Now is not the time to goof off. Now is the time to work really hard to get yourself and your family into the best position that you can for the storm that is coming.
Nothing is going to stop the terrible economic crisis that is coming, but at least we can get prepared for it.
There is hope in being prepared.
Sadly, most people will never even see the next crisis coming until they get blindsided by it.”
Seperti terlihat pada grafik dari Bank of America di bawah ini, adalah sektor jasa yang menyebabkan tekanan pada perekonomian dan the Fed nampaknya tidak mampu melakukan apa-apa untuk mendongkraknya. Karena 70% dari total GDP AS terdiri dari sektor jasa, inilah memang faktor penentu yang menyebabkan ekspansi GDP AS terus melamban.
“The nature of this recovery – with growth concentrated in goods rather than services – leaves the economy particularly vulnerable to an uncertainty shock. Unlike prior recoveries, the service side of the economy has remained disproportionately weak. The service sector shrank as a share of the economy over the past two years. That said, this was only a slight reversal from the multidecade trend away from goods toward services, which has left services as 70% of the economy. The shift last year toward manufacturing and away from services was not due to an exceptional boom in manufacturing. The contribution to GDP growth from manufacturing was akin to prior cycles. The sector gained market share because of an exceptionally slow recovery in services. Unlike the typical post-war recovery, this was not led by a resilient consumer. Households have been in the process of deleveraging in the face of a massive negative wealth shock. The reduction in household formation and home values also significantly reduced spending on housing services.”
Berikut adalah laporan terkini Market Strategies and Insights yang ditulis sangat menarik oleh Walter Deemer yang membahas mengenai the secular valuation contraction cycle dengan mengacu pada “Year Four of the Four-Year Cycle.” Berikut adalah penggalannya:
“The Market Now. We are in Year Four of the Four-Year Cycle, when bad things – and sometimes, very bad things – traditionally occur, and the fact that we are in the midst of a secular valuation contraction increases the long-term risks even further. The uptrend of the past few years is giving way only very, very reluctantly, though, as is almost always the case with uptrends of this magnitude, and the fact that our economy is relatively stronger than other global economies is undoubtedly a major factor in this. Lowry’s, though, is very unhappy with the current market internals, and a close below 1394 would generate a short-term reversal which would have especially negative implications if the financial sector turns relatively weak in the process. A close below 1266, meanwhile, would have at least intermediate-term consequences. Whatever may or may not happen over the short-term, though, long-term risks are unacceptably high.”
Belum lama ini Elliot Simon dari West Virginia mengirim 2 grafik ke Ed Steer, yang selalu membuat saya mengikuti berita yang menggerakkan pasar emas dan perak melalui Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily. Itu merupakan grafik M1V dan M2V, yang merupakan rasio GDP nominal terhadap jumlah uang beredar. Artinya adalah ada berapa kali suatu dolar digunakan untuk membeli barang dan jasa yang termasuk dalam PDB. M1 adalah kas dan M2 adalah kas ditambah checkable funds dan deposito berjangka seperti CDs.
Elliot menemukan “the M2V chart to be the most telling because it’s the lowest velocity ever recorded. The velocity measure means no one is spending; they’re hanging on to their money for dear life. There is almost no lending or borrowing going on, either. In other words, for all intents and purposes, we’re in recession and the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably recognize that whenever they get around to it, which is usually 6-12 months after the fact.”
Saat Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan managing partner dari Matterhorn Asset Management, berbicara mengenai perkembangan terakhir ekonomi global, saya sungguh-sungguh menyimaknya. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam sebuah wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) mengenai berlanjutnya krisis finansial serta arah pergerakan saham, obligasi dan logam mulia ke depan:
“Right now the world is on the edge. When Draghi says something it hits the wire and gold goes up and the dollar goes down. Market participants are sloshing money around from currency to currency, but, in the end, all of the currencies will experience a massive decline.
Virtually every economic figure published worldwide shows there is a rapidly declining global economy. We all know that Southern Europe is a basket case, but Germany is starting to suffer now. Then we go to the UK and that’s a disaster waiting to happen.
I believe the UK is already in a depression …
GDP in the UK is down four out of the last seven quarters and the economic situation in the country is really dire. China is also releasing weaker figures and real numbers are probably worse than what they are publishing.
I would say that from now on, any economic number being released which is showing an improvement is probably either a fluke or a phony figure. We are not going to see growth in the next few months or even the next few years. If you look at the US, home sales are down 8%, durable orders are down, and debt is continuing to increase.
In the last five years debt in the US has increased by over $1 trillion, and, remember, total debt in the US in 1980 was only $1 trillion. You have the municipal bankruptcies and four to five banks are going under every week in the United States.
This is a sign of what’s going to happen on a much larger scale in the whole banking system. But these bank failures are always released on a Friday night so most people are not even aware of it. Also, real inflation in the US is running at between 8% and 10%. I also believe that real GDP in the US is negative.
While the official situation in the US may not appear that bad, the reality is things are deteriorating rapidly. We already have high inflation and now we are about to have more monetary inflation. All of this is part of the beginning of the hyperinflationary depression we have been talking about.
I believe that in the autumn of 2012 we are going to see real problems in the world, and there will be a series of negative events. There will be failing economies, higher unemployment, more QE, and extraordinary levels of social unrest. When QE is announced, I see a temporary rally in stocks. But at some point stocks will collapse. I’m not talking about mining stocks, but common stocks outside of the mining sector.
How will all of this affect gold? Well, if you look at gold in Swiss francs and euros, we are only down a few percent from the all-time highs. So gold is very strong in most currencies and remaining at a high level. So KWN is providing a great service because you are making people aware of the severity of the world’s financial problems. You are helping people to understand the unprecedented wealth destruction that is in front of us.
All of the assets which have been inflated by the credit bubble will implode. This means tens of trillions of dollars of wealth will disappear out of the world economy. As an example, stocks still have to decline 90% vs. gold. We also know the bond market is a massive bubble, and I believe interest rates are headed to 15% to 20% in the next few years. Bond will absolutely implode.
So we are back to physical gold, which is the only investment that eliminates counterparty risks. We are talking here about physical gold held outside of the banking system.”
Yang juga tak kalah penting adalah David Rosenberg dari Gluskin Sheff, yang juga salah seorang favorit saya, yang menulis bahwa sejak pemulihan dimulai 3 tahun lalu, lebih dari 70% real GDP growth yang kita lihat terkonsentrasi pada volume ekspor dan inventory investment; sementara data ISM baru-baru ini menunjukkan keduanya mengalami perlambatan yang dramatis:
Macro Risks Squarely To The Downside
I think that there may be a time, before too long, when we will walk into the office to find that the US prints a negative GDP reading on the back of a negative export trade shock that does not appear to be in any forecast – let alone consensus.
Look at the pattern of ISM export orders:
- April: 59.0
- May: 53.5
- June: 47.5
- July: 46.5
That is called a pattern. And this is a level that coincided with the prior two recessions. As the chart below vividly illustrates, there is a significant 81% correlation between annual growth in total US exports and the ISM new orders index (with a four month lag). So either the market has already priced this in or it is going to end up coming as a very big surprise. We are already seeing the lagged effects of the spreading and deepening European recession hit Asian trade-flows: Korean exports sagged 4.1% in July after a 3.7% slide in June and are down 9% on a YoY basis. Industrial production there edged lower by 0.4% as well last month – I like to look at Korea since it is a real global ‘play’ on the economic cycle.
There is likely going to be another surprise, which is inventory destocking. How do I know that? Because the share of ISM industries polled in July reported that customer inventories were excessively high soared to 33% in July from 11% a year ago (because this metric is not seasonally adjusted it can only be assessed year-on-year), the highest ever for any July in the historical database.
Add to that what is happening to order books – the share of the manufacturers reporting expanded orders sank to 17% in July from 50% a year ago and again – the worst July showing on record.
The food price situation is another major wild card, especially since whatever relief we enjoyed from lower gasoline prices is now behind us. At a 14% share of the consumer spending pie, only shelter is more important than food. And when you go back to the last food cost surge, in the first quarter of 2011 when the grocery bill soared at a punishing 10% annual rate, real GDP growth slowed to a 0.0% annual rate that quarter, which arguably was the big surprise of the year (up until the dent downgrade, that is).
In the final analysis, since the ‘recovery’ began three years ago, over 70% of real GDP growth we have seen was concentrated in these two areas: export volumes and inventory investment. The rest was in capex which is now likely to slow along with the weakening trend in corporate profits, more than offsetting the nascent turnaround in the housing sector. Also keep in mind that the consumer has stalled.
Tally all these effects up and you are looking at the prospects of 0% growth as early as Q4.
What Do the Charts Say?
Grafik pertama oleh Chris Vermeulen dari www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com, yang mengingatkan pembaca pada newsletter mingguan gratisnya bahwa “last summer turned into a bloodbath with nothing but red candlesticks taking stocks and commodities sharply lower. If you haven’t already, it’s time to lock in some profits. Short, intermediate, and long term cycles are pointing down, and the increasingly bearish technical developments cannot be ignored. We’ll be looking at entering multiple shorts potentially in the very near future once/if setups present themselves.”
Salah satu yang diperhatikannya saat ini adalah pola grafik mingguan tembaga (copper). Dan berikut yang dikatakannya mengenai tembaga dan kenapa logam tersebut dapat menjadi indikator penting ke depannya:
“If we take a look at the copper ETF, “JJC”, we are provided with further justification. Copper is often referred to as “Dr. Copper” due to its industrial application and is known to be a leading indicator for equity markets. Copper has significantly underperformed equity markets and is likely leading the next move down. A look at the weekly chart which points to a rather dismal outlook. There is a major head and shoulder patterns developing.”
Kemudian adalah komentar John Murphy pada Market Message commentary-nya yang juga memberi pandangan yang pesimis untuk bursa saham. Mr. Murphy adalah seorang penulis – seperti yang Anda mungkin ketahui – buku Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, yang dianggap sebagai “Kitab Technical Analysis“. Jika Anda belum membacanya, saya sangat merekomendasikannya untuk Anda yang ingin serius menjadi trader. Berikut ini adalah laporan singkatnya yang berjudul “WORLD STOCK INDEX PEAKED IN 2011”:
“One of my previous messages showed a rotation out of small cap stocks into mega-caps in the middle of 2011 which continues to this day. That suggests that investors have been growing increasingly defensive over the last year. The chart below provides graphic evidence that global stocks may have actually peaked last year as well. It shows the Vanguard Total World Index (VT) since 2009. [The VT includes stocks from all over the world in both developed and emerging markets. It has a surprisingly large weight to North America (51%). Europe accounts for 22%, emerging markets 13%, and the Pacific region 12%. The chart shows a major uptrend line being broken last summer (red circle). The VT has since formed a pattern of lower peaks (red trendline). Although the U.S. stock market has held up better than other global stocks, it too is influenced by global trends. This chart isn’t encouraging.”
Terakhir oleh Lance Roberts dari Street Talk Live yang memberikan pesan yang sangat jelas dalam “Major Sell Signal Triggered”:
“For some time now we have been warning about the danger to portfolios given the deteriorating fundamental, economic and technical backdrop in the markets. Our warnings, for the most part, have been ignored as individuals continue to chase stocks in hopes that “this time will be different”, and somehow, stocks will continue to ramp higher even though all three support legs are weakening. Currently, it is the imminent arrival of the next round of Quantitative Easing (QE) that keeps “hope” elevated but further Central Bank intervention is unlikely in the near term leaving the markets at risk of a further correction.
My job is to analyze the trend of the data, both economic, fundamental and technical, to build a frame work of possibilities and probabilities about what might happen soon. Like any good poker player before making a “bet,” which requires putting my capital at risk of loss, I want to make sure that the odds are in my favor of winning. If I am highly confident of success – I bet a lot. If not – I do not. The same philosophy goes into managing money. Wall Street tells you to be invested all the time because that is how they make money. However, the reality is that investing is very akin to playing poker – you are making bets today based on the possibilities of some future outcome.
The reason for this framework is that I have been negative on the markets since early April. The weight of evidence has clearly been negative. While the mainstream media continues to look for glimmers of “hope” – hope is not an effective investment strategy. However, when the flow of data changes and price action becomes more constructive – my outlook will also.
Major Sell Signal Is In
This bit of history leads us to our latest, and most important, sell signal to date. With the economy continuing to weaken, corporate earnings, showing severe signs of strain and the Eurocrisis emerging once again – the risk at the moment is clearly to the downside. The continued deterioration, in both the fundamental and technical frameworks, has significantly increased the risk of further equity market declines.
The decline in the markets on July 24th pushed the two main moving averages that we follow into negative territory initiating a major SELL signal for the markets. These major sell signals should not be ignored. The first chart plots our two moving averages relative to the S&P 500 over the last 12 years. During this time frame there has only been 7 “sell” and 6 “buy” signals. As with all investment strategies and disciplines there is always the possibility of getting a false signal. The same is true for this particular indicator. Since 1930, there have been a total of 51 major “sell” signals of which 9 gave a false reading translating into a 17.6% failure rate. As I said, no indicator is perfect, but as an investment manager I am willing to make investment decisions based on an indicator that has an 82% success rate.
More importantly, as shown in the chart, this strategy helped us avoid the bulk of the last two recessionary market debacles. The problem is that while it is easy to assume that the current correction could be shallow, like previous two summers as the Federal Reserve stepped in to prop up asset prices, there is always a chance that it could be a much bigger correction. Following the signals previously would have limited downside risk while keeping you primarily invested in for the majority of bullish trends.
The next chart shows the similarities of the 2011 and 2012 markets. In both cases rallies in June, post a May decline, led to sloppy sideways trading in July. The major “Sell” signal occurred on August 5th of 2011 as the markets began a steep sell off. While there is no guarantee that the market is about to plunge towards the 1200-1250 level this August – the striking similarities of market action certainly does suggest a more cautionary stance be taken.
Sell Into The Bounce
Technical signals must be put into “context” based on current market conditions. In order to strip out the “noise” in our analysis we use weekly instead of daily price data. This smoothing of the daily data allows for better clarity of the trends in the market. However, due to this smoothing process by the time a signal is given the markets are generally overbought, or oversold, on a daily basis and are generally close for a reflexive bounce. That bounce should be sold into.
The problem for most investors is that when the market bounces in order to correct the short term oversold condition they assume that the “sell signal” was incorrect. More than 80% of the time, as our data shows, the market will bounce and then decline to lower levels. Therefore, the rules are simple:
- In negative trending markets – sell rallies.
- In positive trending markets – buy dips.”
Mengakhiri laporan yang sudah cukup panjang ini, saya akan memberikan Anda sejumlah saran investasi umum yang bisa dipertimbangkan:
1) Saya pikir setiap investor harus memiliki proporsi yang layak untuk tabungannya dalam logam mulia (emas dan/atau perak). Pandangan pribadi saya adalah bahwa proporsi 10%-20% adalah baik, tetapi untuk alokasi yang pasti akan sangat bergantung pada kondisi dan profil resiko Anda sendiri. Logam mulia, terutama emas, merupakan tempat berlindung Anda jika terjadi risiko keuangan yang ekstrim, dan masih ada kesempatan bagus karena kita akan melihat resiko ekstrim itu kembali dalam waktu dekat.
2) Jika Anda berpikir untuk berinvestasi di bursa saham lokal Anda, maka sebaiknya pilih kelompok saham yang lebih defensif seperti consumer staples dan big integrated oil companies. Serta dapat juga memilih saham-saham yang menawarkan solid yields dari pada growth-oriented names. Kenapa? Karena perusahaan besar dapat mengatasi kondisi stagflationary lebih baik daripada perusahaan kebanyakan, berhubungan mereka berada dalam posisi lebih baik untuk menetapkan harga daripada perusahaan lain. Jadi menanam bagian terbesar portofolio Anda untuk memperoleh penghasilan yang layak yang dapat Anda investasikan kembali pada peluang lain kapan saja saat muncul adalah masuk akal bagi saya.
3) Pertimbangkan untuk melakukan hedging pada aset-aset yang beresiko turun dengan membuka short positions. Berikutnya, perketat stop loss Anda pada open positions dengan menggunakan trailing stop yang akan melestarikan mayoritas keuntungan yang Anda peroleh, dan menghindari Anda dari kerugian lebih dalam.
4) Selama terjadinya krisis, investor institusi biasanya membuang saham-saham mereka di bursa mancanegara dan beralih ke Treasuries atau aset lain yang dianggap “safe havens.” Oleh karena itu, bursa negara berkembang mengalami tekanan terbesar ketika terjadi kejatuhan.
Untuk alasan tersebut, jika terjadi kejatuhan berikut saya sarankan untuk mengambil posisi jual pada bursa saham negara-negara berkembang. Namun demikian dalam jangka panjang, saya masih mendukung investasi di bursa negara berkembang. Bagaimanapun, pertumbuhan sedang terjadi di negara-negara tersebut. Sebagai contoh, bursa saham Indonesia yang telah naik hingga 974,84% dari awal 2002 hingga sekarang. Dan jelas ini merupakan return yang sulit diperoleh di bursa-bursa negara maju, jadi jangan sampai kehilangan peluang prospek pertumbuhan yang spektakuler di mayoritas bursa saham negara-negara berkembang.
Dan mungkin kini semakin banyak yang mengetahui apa itu double dip recession, namun apakah Anda pernah mendengar double dip Dow? Jika tidak, coba lihat gambar kartun di bawah ini:
Source: Michael Ramirez, Townhall.com, August 19, 2011.
Dibuat Tanggal 15 Agustus 2012