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Tenang Menjelang Badai?

September 26th, 2012 1 comment

“If you’re a passenger aboard a ship in deep water, you can’t detect a tsunami; the swells are indistinguishable from regular ocean waves. Wave lengths can be hundreds of miles long, but only when this energy reaches shallow water does the mammoth tsunami wall form – and can wash over anything in its path. So when forecasters warn “Move to higher ground!” it’s not wise to think, “Until I see the tsunami, I won’t believe it’s coming.” Once it’s visible, it’s probably too late. It’s equally unwise to ignore signs of a financial tsunami. Investors who wait … before acting will be too late. We have to anticipate developments, and the only way we can do that is to use tools that reveal signs of approaching trend change.”
-The Elliott Wave Theorist, March 2012

Laporan hari ini mungkin agak lebih panjang dari biasanya karena saya akan menunjukkan banyak hal yang terjadi belakangan ini yang menyita perhatian kita.  Terutama di bursa saham secara umum, dan lebih spesifik di bursa saham AS, yang terlihat sedang berada atau sudah dekat ke titik perubahan menuju bearish.

David Rosenberg, seorang Chief Economist & Strategist pada Gluskin Sheff, baru-baru ini membuat ringkasan menarik mengenai fakta-fakta terkini yang mempengaruhi bursa saham AS.  Jika Anda tertarik untuk mencari tahu apa yang sebenarnya terjadi dalam REALITAS – bukan di dunia fiksi seperti yang dilaporkan oleh media mainstream – maka Anda sebaiknya membaca laporan ini berulang-ulang, setidaknya dua kali:

David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff: BUMPY ROAD

What the stock market lacked last week can be boiled down to two words — follow through. It’s as if all the QE and then some got priced in the week before. Not even the ballyhooed introduction of the iPhone 5 managed to elicit much excitement. It was interesting to see the Dow fail to hold onto its early gains on Friday and close with a 17 point loss and to see the sector leaders narrow to a group of defensives like health care and telecom services. The financials and materials segments were very soft and yet in the past these were the major beneficiaries of Quantitative Easing. For the week, the S&P500 dipped 0.4% — which was not supposed to happen. What was supposed to happen, as the elites told us, was that the lagging hedge funds were going to throw in the towel and chase this market. Everyone expects this to be a major source of buying power.

Alas, but at what price level?

At the same time, what if the bulls who lucked out this year because they hung onto Ben Bernanke’s arm decide to take profits or at the least lock in their gains? Or what if there is no progress made on the fiscal front and we go into year-end with the gnawing realization that top marginal capital gains tax rates will be heading back to 43.4% on January 1 from the current 15%? It may be a widely-held view but it is no slam dunk that we finish off 2012 with the double- digit returns — twice what is normal — that have been posted thus far (for more proof, have a look at Money Managers Take a Timeout From Stocks in today’s WSJ. And the best quote goes to “nothing the Fed has done has increased earnings expectations’).

Further on the political front, it shouldn’t be lost on those who are proponents of capitalism that President Obama now enjoys a 49% approval rating — it is up six points in the past year (and election handicappers should note that this is the exact same rating that George W. Bush had at this same juncture of the 2004 campaign — which he won handily against another gaffe-prone opponent).

Interestingly, prices are up impressively this year, but trading volumes are down around 20%. Yet another non-confirmation.

And it’s not as if the equity market has been rallying off news at it pertains to the fundamentals like the economic data and corporate earnings. Indeed, more than two-thirds of the rally points the stock market has enjoyed since the summer-time lows occurred around central bank policy announcements. So the market is really a one-trick pony here, breathing in the fumes of central bank liquidity.

The global economic fundamentals are awful. China’s industrial sector is in decline. France’s PMI data is at a 41-month low, and while Germany did manage to pull off an upside surprise, the whole euro area now has its manufacturing sector behaving as though it is 2009 all over again. Italy just sharply cut its economic growth forecast (and the stock market there was clocked for a 4% loss last week), shortly after the Japanese government downgraded its own assessment of the economy. Declines occurred in U.S. household employment, real wages, Industrial production and core retail sales. In other words, this is not QE1, when the recession was coming to an end. This is not QE2 or Operation Twist when the economy stopped looking as though it was going to do a “double dip”. No. This latest round of central bank manipulation is happening at a time when there is no sign of an imminent turnaround in the economy, and the weakness has gone viral. The real problems for investor risk appetite comes if we see signs that inflation is heading higher which will limit what the Fed can do, or if we see the economy falter which would then expose Bernanke as the non- wizard that Toto exposed behind the curtain and the Fed as pushing on a string.

Investor sentiment is not at a bullish extreme yet, but it’s getting there — at just over 54% bullish sentiment in the latest Investors Intelligence survey. The wedge between the bulls and bears is flirting with the 30-percentage-point spread that typically signals interim market tops.

Earnings expectations are far too optimistic and destined to come down. The consensus has operating EPS accelerating to a 13.4% growth rate in 2013 from 5.4% this year. But with margins at cycle high levels (9.4%, rivaling the 2006 record, just as the market was about to put in its last gasp to a new high) ;and 30% above long-run norms, it will be difficult to see EPS growth that strong absent a return to vigorous corporate pricing power. And with the P/E multiple for the overall market already back to the high end of the range for the past two years, what I see at best is a sideways moving market from here. Some pundits will use interest rates as an excuse, but the weekend WSJ provided some nifty insight showing that the market multiple historically was 12x when the 10-year real bond yield was negative (versus around 14x now).

I don’t know but a 12x multiple on a forward earnings stream that will likely be flat around $100 in the coming year doesn’t sound like a market that has a whole lot of upside from here (or until we get another announcement from a major central bank).

There are various non-confirming developments taking place, and Dow Theory advocates know exactly what I am talking about as the Dow Transports slumped 5,9% this past week, the largest decline since November of last year. That this ultra-cyclically sensitive sector is down 2,2% for the year at a time when the S&P 500 is up 16% is one of the great anomalies for 2012.

The railroad stocks not only sagged 7% last week but were also the fourth worst performer in the IBD’s 197 industry group. This is a warning sign, make no mistake, underscored by the last week’s guidance cuts by both FedEx and Norfolk Southern.

As someone from Miller Tabak put it to the WSJ this weekend:

This is a major divergence that should not be ignored. It tells me the risks of being in the market at these levels are growing. The Transports are the first major index to reflect an underlying change in the market. The market is now saying ‘yes, the economy does matter’. You can’t close your eyes and buy everything anymore.

Pretty heady stuff.

China is another anomaly as its stock market suffered its steepest decline in nearly a year as the Shanghai index closed last week at its lowest price since 2/2/12. It is down 8% for the year, and this is likely important insofar of what it is pricing in for the world’s second largest economy. It’s more than just the islands dispute with Japan and the looming political transition – profits there are in a recession, having contracted 2.7% this year and the diffusion measures of industrial activity flashed an 11th month in a row of receding manufacturing sector.

And what about Europe. Yet another non-validation. The stock market there, with an 11x forward multiple, 20% below normal, is close to telling us that the recession is getting worse. Since Super Mario embarked on his newest bond buying program in September 6th, Spanish two-year bond yields – the benchmark for global risk trades – have jumped 40 basis points.

What makes QE3 different and maybe even less potent than its predecessors is that the trend in global economic activity is still down. In the prior QEs, activity was already reviving and actually this may have played a more significant role in stimulating investor ‘animal spirits’ than the actual liquidity boost. Let’s not also forget that earnings, both operating and reported, are now contracting sequentially. And the ISM is in a multi-month sub-50 pattern. This was not the case during these other QE episodes and serves up a greater hurdle for market performance this time around.

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Dalam laporan terakhirnya John C. Burford, yang menjabat sebagai analis di MoneyWeek dan sekaligus merangkap sebagai editor pada MoneyWeek Trader, lebih rinci menjelaskan salah satu indikator sentimen pasar yang paling penting:

Traders are overwhelmingly bullish

The big question is: with the rally firmly established, can I expect a reversal near current levels?

For another clue, let’s see what the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data can give us:


I find this data staggering – just focus on the changes for the previous week.

The large non-commercials (hedge funds) are holding more than four long contracts for every one short. And the increase of 7,300 in longs (as the rally progressed) is a large 17%.

That is herding in action. The professionals are making the classic error of getting more bullish as the market rallies.

Remember, markets always make major tops when sentiment becomes too bullish amongst the speculators (non-commercials and non-reportables).

At my workshop, I show how this works and how it can tell you when a trend is likely to turn, based on sentiment readings. This is valuable information to have as a trader.

The market is ripe for a reversal

Note also that the commercials (banks and genuine hedgers) increased their shorts more than their longs. These are the strong hands.

But the non-reportables – i.e. small traders (you and me) – were getting cold feet holding so many longs, and some even went net short.

This is backing up what I have been saying – the market professionals are hugely bullish, while ‘moms and pops’ are much more ambivalent. Maybe they see what is happening on the ground in the real economy – weak growth and high unemployment – while the professionals only see a rising market and don’t want to be left out, especially at bonus time.

Also, remember that there is massive quantitative easing (QE) liquidity at the disposal of the professionals with no place to go, except into asset markets, such as stocks. Private investors have no such funds to play with!

Conclusion: the market is ripe for a reversal at any time.

Berikutnya adalah Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang menulis 2 artikel yang sangat pendek mengenai bursa saham AS.  Yang pertama menunjukkan pola yang sungguh menarik berdasarkan level Fibonacci retracement, sementara yang kedua coba memberikan indikasi secara jelas mengenai diskrepansi di tahun ini antara perekonomian dan indeks S&P 500:

1) How A 12th Century Mathematician Just Doomed Bernanke’s Wealth Effect (September 25, 2012)

Leonardo Fibonacci (1170-1250) may have just stuck his ‘golden-ratio-based’ fork in the equity market’s rally. As the following chart shows, the diminishing marginal utility of Quantitative Easing’s wealth effect has followed a rather remarkable pattern… and today marks the next turning point.

Applying a Fibonacci-based 61.8% retracement level to each of the time-periods following the March 2009 lows, produces a very interesting cycle overlay on the S&P 500 rallies…

(h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge)


2) The Gaping Maw of Centrally-Planned Surreality (September 21, 2012)

There was a time when the market led, and the economy followed. That’s when the market was still a discounting mechanism, a long, long time ago. Then came a time when the clueless market, after every illusion it held about a Dow 36,000 future was shattered, would respond with a slight, millisecond delay to every flashing red economic “surprise” headline and thanks to HFTs exaggerate the momentum of the move spectacularly, leading to delirium-inducing volatility, and even further confusion. But what we have now, under the final advent of the central planner New Normal, when the economy is clearly going one way (the wrong one), while the S&P is dogedly chasing the opposite direction and completely ignoring any and all downside macro surprises, is something never seen before. One thing is certain: the gaping maw of the alligator: the red and the blue arrows will converge, and sooner or later the convergence will not be in the direction that the central printer, and his Liberty 33 henchmen, request.

Courtesy of John Lohman

Terakhir Clive Maund di www.clivemaund.com memberikan peringatan serius kepada seluruh (atau sebaiknya saya katakan mayoritas?) investor yang masih terlena dalam Investors in US Stock markets set up to be Fleeced.  Berikut adalah sebagian analisa briliannya yang paling relevan:

“Most investors were duped by the mainstream financial media into thinking that the broad US stock market made an important upside breakout last week, but according to our charts it did no such thing. Sure the market did breakout to new post 2008 – 2009 crash highs, but it DID NOT break out to new highs on longer-term charts, and DID NOT break out upside from the large bearish Rising Wedge that it remains stuck in.

Our 4-year chart below, which shows the uptrend from the 2009 lows in its entirety, makes plain that the market is in the late stages of a huge strongly converging, and thus strongly bearish, Rising Wedge, which results from a steady diminishing of buying power. As we can see it must soon break out from this pattern and if the breakout is to the downside it is likely to plunge, which is likely given the looming Fiscal Cliff which will ravage corporate profits – if it succeeds in breaking out upside it will buy it more time, but this is considered a much less likely outcome.

Our long-term 20-year chart shows that the market has risen up into a zone of strong resistance approaching its 2000 and 2007 major highs – so much for the great breakout. Looks more like a great place for it to turn tail and start another bear market.

Now that their coats have grown back, it’s time for US investors to get fleeced again…”

 

Dan … meskipun ini seperti OOT (atau out of topic), saya tetap ingin mengatakan bahwa saya punya REKOMENDASI KUAT UNTUK SELL POUND STERLING (GBP).  Lebih lanjut tentang hal ini akan ditulis oleh Rekhmen Abadi, yang akan mengetengahkan grafik poundsterling lebih rinci. Namun terlebih dahulu ijinkan saya mengatakan bahwa GBP hampir pasti telah memulai penurunannya dalam Intermediate wave (3) dari Primary wave C, setelah membentuk double top di sekitar 1.6300.

Jadi ini memang salah satu trade yang dengannya saya memiliki keyakinan tinggi, dengan target utama di bawah level low Januari 2009 di 1.3504 dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

Saat melakukan riset pagi ini, saya menemukan dua berita menarik yang menunjukkan tingkat keparahan dari krisis keuangan global yang sedang berlangsung. Keduanya – sekali lagi – masih dari Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com:

1) Quote Du Jour from Jean-Claude

Remember Jean-Claude Juncker? The guy who promised he would quit his unelected post in Europe’s neo-vassal imperial council, and tend to his garden or something due to the endless acrimony between France and Germany, only to clarify later he lied? Well, here he is again

  • JUNCKER SAYS THOSE BETTING ON EURO BREAKUP ‘SERIOUSLY MISTAKEN’

Got it. Of course, this is the same guy who said “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” It is, again, serious.

2) Spain in a Nutshell

Confused why contrary to all public lies otherwise, Spain is Greece? Here’s why

  • TAX RECEIPTS THROUGH AUGUST FELL 4.6% ON YR, SPAIN DATA SHOW: perhaps their tax collectors were also on strike?
  • SPAIN GOVT SPENDING THROUGH AUGUST ROSE 8.9%, BUDGET DATA SHOWS: missed the austerity by just thiiiiiiis much
  • SPAIN JAN-AUG CENTRAL BUDGET DEFICIT 4.77% GDP VS 3.81% YR AGO

Luckily, there is always hope that the magic money tree will bloom eventually

  • SPAIN EXPECTS HIGHER TAX REVENUE IN COMING MONTHS

So, to summarize: revenues down, spending up, budget deficit naturally higher than last year. Oh, stop calculating… and just buy their bonds. The Central Planners will make sure the math is irrelevant always and forever.

Untuk mengakhiri laporan saya pekan ini (karena Rekhmen akan menggantikan saya untuk laporan Kamis dan Jumat) dengan gembira, berikut adalah lelucon lain yang lawas mengenai bankir serta sebuah gambar dari papan permainan model baru:

A young banker decided to get his first tailor-made suit.  As he tried it on, he reached down to put his hands in the pockets, but to his surprise found none.

He mentioned this to the tailor, who asked him, “You’re a banker, right?”  The young man answered, “Yes, I am.”

“Well, whoever heard of a banker who put his hand in his own pocket?”

Dibuat Tanggal 26 September 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Akankah Emas Mencetak Rekor Tertingginya Kembali? (Bagian 2)

September 26th, 2012 No comments

“A dollar is definitely going to be worth less in one hundred years than it is today; an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold.”

-Graham Birch

“The gold standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of

the money supply, under the gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political parties.  This is its advantage.  It is a form of protection against spendthrift governments.”

-Ludwig von Mises, from Economic Policy

 

Artikel pertama ditulis oleh Dan Amoss untuk The Daily Reckoning yang berjudul The Fed Is Officially Insane, dan menjelaskan dengan sangat baik tentang kenapa pencetakan uang dari the Fed AS akan berakhir buruk serta tentang apa yang dapat kita lakukan untuk melindungi kita dari ‘kegilaan’ tersebut:

“There’s an old saying that defines insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The Federal Reserve wants to test that theory.

Fed officials have been all over the media for weeks, laying the groundwork for a third round of quantitative easing. By preparing markets for QE3, the Fed refuses to let real-world evidence get in the way of its beloved theories. QE operations haven’t worked; they’ve just promoted government spending and higher savings rates to make up for low interest rates.

The arrogance and groupthink among Federal Reserve officials won’t allow them to diagnose the following: The Fed, by its radical actions, mutates the very economy it’s trying to “boost.”

An honest review of the Fed’s record would conclude that it’s rotten. In a recent update of The Speculative Investor, Steve Saville explains why the whole concept of central banking is “rotten to the core.” He describes how central banks are providers of gambling insurance to the banking system:

“[The] central bank offers the equivalent of gambling insurance to the banking industry.

“Imagine if an insurance company made the following deal with all patrons of a casino: In exchange for a patron’s promise to gamble prudently, the insurance company promises to come to the patron’s aid if he finds himself short of money. Knowing that the insurance company was essentially acting as a financial backstop, at least a few gamblers would take more risk than they would otherwise.

“In a similar vein, knowing that the central bank will be ready, willing and able to provide support via emergence liquidity injections if things go wrong, some private banks will take more risks. Furthermore, due to the higher profits that tend to temporarily accrue to the banks that take more risk, most banks will eventually be drawn toward riskier business practices. This is why a mechanism supposedly (according to the propaganda) put in place to prevent banking crises ends up increasing the severity and frequency of banking crises.”

It’s no mystery why the US banking system had built up reckless lending and securitizing practices in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis: Reckless behavior paid well.

Now, instead of enabling reckless bank lending, the Fed (and other central banks) is enabling the addiction of governments to easy borrowing terms. It’s now providing gambling insurance to the biggest spending addicts in history: the US government. Suppressing interest rates near zero for years and years will transfer countless wealth from savers to the government budget.

As budget deficits continue to be measured in the trillions, we will see the size of central bank balance sheets grow too. Inflation will remain stubbornly high worldwide, despite sluggish economic activity. Central bankers may talk tough from time to time, but they will ultimately do the bidding of governments — and print.

For years, I’ve expected that at the end of all this central bank printing, we’ll see the end — not a reversal — of quantitative easing programs and a re-pegging of the US dollar to gold at much higher gold prices. A new gold standard would allow the Fed and other central banks to save face after the following sequence of events:

  1. Central banks inflate their balance sheets and buy up many of the bonds governments issue to fund soaring budget deficits
  2. Once the largest suppliers of scarce products realize they’re exchanging products for infinitely diluted paper money, they start demanding more and more money in exchange for sending their scarce products to the marketplace
  3. Consumer prices start rising
  4. Calls for monetary tightening (reduction of central bank balance sheets and interest rate hikes) grow louder
  5. These central banks won’t be able to slash money supplies without crashing government bond markets and stock markets. They talk about tightening, but don’t tighten
  6. As central banks lose credibility, gold launches on a final, near-vertical stage of its bull market
  7. In response to inflation expectations running wild, governments and central banks draw up plans to re-peg currencies to gold in order to avoid having to drain trillions worth of cash from the banking system.

It’s almost impossible to imagine the Fed managing a “soft landing” back to its pre-quantitative easing condition. I compare QE operations to a roach motel: easy to enter and impossible to exit in a practical manner.

Say that the Fed doubles the size of its balance sheet yet again over the course of a QE3 operation, while the market’s expectation of future inflation steadily rises. The selling pressure on Treasuries would steadily grow, undermining the value of the Treasuries already sitting on the Fed’s balance sheet. On a mark-to-market basis, the equity on the Fed’s balance sheet would be negative — by several hundreds of billions of dollars.

How long will it take investors to realize this dilemma is incredibly bullish for gold? At the end of these money-printing operations, central banks won’t be able to sell assets and shrink money supplies gracefully — or at all.

Perhaps once the global paper money system is restructured, involving some sort of gold standard, sanity will return to the Fed and other central banks. Until we see more signs of sanity, hold a core position in gold, silver, and precious metal mining stocks. These asset classes will be the prime beneficiaries of future printing.”

Selanjutnya penulis kawakan untuk surat kabar harian, Richard Russell, yakin bahwa emas akan digunakan untuk menyelamatkan dunia yang sedang dililit hutang. Berikut adalah yang ia katakan pada sebuah wawancara dengan KWN (www.kingworldnews.com) tanggal 5 September 2012:

“The national debt of the US is now well over $16 trillion and growing at the rate of over one trillion dollars a year.  It can never be paid off through the ‘normal’ means.  Paying off by normal means would entail a huge, really killer boost in taxes and a brutal unmerciful, slashing of entitlements.  The only way the US’s debts can ever be seriously addressed is to devalue the dollar.

The US owns the world’s greatest hoard of gold.  Here’s what I think the authorities have to do.  They should unilaterally, overnight raise the price of gold to a high value, maybe around $10,000 an ounce.  Thus, each dollar would be worth one ten-thousandth of an ounce of gold.  This would allow our enormous debt to be paid off with vastly devalued dollars.

This would be inflationary, since everyone who owned gold would own a pile of devalued dollars.  The huge increase in the number of dollars would drive prices up, and that would work against the current forces of deflation.

Nations owning gold would in turn (in order to compete) — devalue their own currencies, and thus be able to pay off their own ‘impossible’ debts.  In the end, a new world monetary system would have to be established, but the terrible problem of a planet choking on debt would be solved.

I think this is the only way the world-debt problem is going to be solved.  It will, in the end, be solved by devaluation (as Roosevelt did in 1933, when he suddenly and unilaterally raised the price of gold from 20 to 35 dollars an ounce).

Interestingly, we now hear an increasing amount of talk regarding gold entering the world monetary system.  Furthermore, I think we are going to hear even more about gold in future months.  Smart, wealthy, well-informed investors will start accumulating gold.  Soros and Paulson are doing it already.  I don’t doubt that Soros has inside information.

I also believe that the US will, in due time, start backing its currency with part-gold and the dollar will be convertible into gold at around $10,000 an ounce.  This will render the dollar the most wanted currency in the world.

I believe the Chinese are onto the same idea.  But as of now, China does not own as much gold as they desire, which is one reason China has rushed headlong into the gold business — China is currently the world’s biggest producer of gold.  It is also why China is encouraging its own people to buy and accumulate gold.  China knows that gold is the future of the world monetary system.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Meskipun harga emas jelas terlihat bullish kembali dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, menurut saya akan keliru jika terlalu gegabah untuk membeli logam mulia tersebut tanpa pertimbangan apapun. Dominic Frisby, seorang komentator emas dan komoditas di MoneyWeek, juga memiliki pandangan serupa.

Di bawah ini adalah tiga alasan mengapa emas mungkin akan turun terlebih dahulu dalam jangka pendek:

“First, it is approaching a big line of resistance at just below the $1,800 mark, as shown by the red line on the next chart below.


Given the action we have seen since the end of July, I would wager that we are bound to see some kind of breather. There are so many traders who will have had such a good couple of months, profit taking is inevitable, even as soon as this week – on the stocks as well as the metals themselves.

Second, we always seem to see some kind of shake-out either in late September or early October. You can see this on Dimitri Speck’s seasonal chart, shown below. (The chart basically shows that over the last 30 years, gold has generally had a fall during these months).

 

Third, there is a heck of a lot of bullish sentiment about gold and silver all of a sudden. Since the latest Fed announcement of apparently unlimited QE, a number of people – many of whom I have great respect for – are declaring that “this is it”, “this is the beginning of the end-game”, “Von Mises’ crack-up boom, here we come”, and the like.

(“Crack-up boom” refers to the economist Ludwig Von Mises’ oft-quoted line: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”)

If there is one thing I’ve learned, it’s that this ‘end-game’ is going to be a lot longer in coming than most of us ever expect. (I thought it was coming in 2008.) Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent and all that.

When you hear these kinds of pronouncements, it often pays not to listen to them. There’s no doubt that the stances of the world’s central banks are extremely inflationary and bullish for gold. But the expectation for stimulus was, to at least a degree, priced in. Perhaps this is a moment to ‘sell the news’.”

Satu hal lagi yang perlu diingat adalah fakta bahwa emas sudah masuk dalam kondisi overbought saat ini sementara dolar AS, sebaliknya, berada dalam kondisi oversold. Jika dolar AS berhasil rebound dari level support-nya, maka kenaikan emas akan terhadang.

Pekan lalu Ed Steer, director pada the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) dan editor pada Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily, mengetengahkan update singkat mengenai emas dan indeks dolar AS dibarengi dengan sejumlah grafik yang bagus:

“It will be interesting to see how high this dollar index rally goes…as it is as much oversold as the precious metals are overbought. I still haven’t forgotten about JPMorgan et al and their horrendous Comex short positions in all precious metals…but silver in particular…along with their corresponding short position in SLV. Unless they get over run…they’re going to be looking to cover as many of these short positions as they can.

Here’s the 6-month dollar index chart…

And the 6-month gold chart

This is the “in your ear” short-term scenario that I’m concerned about…and JPMorgan et al‘s track record is 100% in this department, with no exceptions.

But this is one of those times that all dips should be bought…and I’ll be taking my own advice if or when this scenario finally plays out.”

Yang terakhir namun tak kalah pentingnya catatan dari Café Américain-nya Jesse pada 14 September yang mengatakan bahwa emas telah menyelesaikan bentuk ‘cup’ pada grafik harian. Artinya bahwa kita seharusnya menyaksikan bentuk ‘handle’ pada pergerakan emas ke depan.

Berikut ini adalah grafik ‘bayangan’-nya untuk emas, yang selalu membuat Jesse tetap “in background to watch developing scenarios without having to engage in unnecessarily tedious redrawing of the published chart”:

 

Di akhir laporan mengenai emas ini, saya hanya akan memberikan sebuah peringatan yang datang dari Louise Yamada, mantan Managing Director dan Head of Technical Research untuk Smith Barney sebelum kemudian menjadi analis independen:

“The renewed fear of further liquidity on the part of the Fed weakened the US dollar (until the next crisis?), at least short term, from its perceived safe-haven status.  Gold and the dollar generally move in an inverse relationship.  Therefore, were a renewed crisis to result in a dollar rally, Gold might reverse its current gains.”

Dan agar tetap bisa tersenyum, berikut adalah penjelasan sederhana, singkat dan mudah mengenai INFLASI:

Dibuat Tanggal 25 September 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Akankah Emas Mencetak Rekor Tertingginya Kembali? (Bagian 1)

September 25th, 2012 1 comment

A good year or so ago, gold had accelerated into a sort of climax peak above $1,900. It has taken almost a year to correct that sharp advance. I think gold has absorbed the selling pressure very well, and has gone through a lengthy, cyclical corrective process, into the low $1,500s. There was always a risk that it could break down once more to make for a climax low, but I don’t think this is likely anymore. The odds of that happening have decreased. … while gold has run up into the $1,700s, we could any time see a setback of $50 or $60 or so. That would be normal. But from now on buying the dips is the right strategy because I think we have actually entered the next cyclical bull market within the secular bull run that we are still in. I think this has much higher highs to go.”

-Felix Zulauf, who founded Zulauf Asset Management

 

Hari ini mari kita lihat lebih dekat ke salah satu investasi favorit saya saat ini, yakni logam mulia dan lebih spesifik emas. Meskipun periode

bullish pada logam mulia sudah berjalan 12 tahun, banyak orang yang masih belum tahu mengapa emas (dan juga perak) lebih baik dari saham dan patut menjadi bagian dari portofolio setiap orang.

Selain itu, masih banyak informasi yang salah, manipulasi serta ketidaktahuan dalam media-media mainstream yang membuat para pelaku pasar cenderung menjauh dari investasi logam mulia. Oleh karenanya menurut saya sebuah gagasan yang luar biasa untuk mengetengahkan artikel berikut yang berjudul “The Top 3 Rules toUnderstand About Gold & Silver Price Behavior”.

Ditulis oleh JS Kim, seorang Managing Director dan sekaligus pendiri dari SmartKnowledgeU, sebuah perusahaan riset dan konsultan investasi yang sangat independen, yang merencanakan strategi investasi untuk melindungi Main Street dari penipuan Wall Street.

Saya yakin bagi sebagian orang ini akan benar-benar merupakan hal baru, meskipun mungkin ada sebagian lain memang sudah sangat mewaspadainya:

Over the past 10+ years of this gold and silver bull, I’ve seen gold and silver “newbies” repeatedly make the same mistakes. So I’ve decided to write this short article to help people more clearly understand gold and silver price behavior. There are 3 solid rules to follow and understand when buying gold and silver bullion and or mining stocks. Because of the lack of understanding of these rules, many investors unfortunately unload gold and silver assets at the exact wrong time, at the bottom of long corrections and right at the beginning of huge new legs higher. Back in mid-May, when I wrote that it was a very low-risk, high-reward point to buy gold and silver assets, virtually no one outside of the very small circle of seasoned gold and silver investors were interested. Now that gold and silver have risen considerably since that point and time, there is more interest than just a few weeks ago, but again, some newbies will make the mistake of buying into gold and silver now, and on any slight pull back, listen to the doubts disseminated by the mainstream media, and panic sell again.

I previously stated on August 16, 2012, the following: “The one thing I can guarantee, however, is that when gold and silver finally make new highs, and they will, some of the ferocious moves higher are absolutely going to stun a lot of people.” And I still stand by this statement. In retrospect, I don’t consider the recent moves in gold and silver to be part of the “ferocious moves higher”.

That hasn’t happened yet and we’re still a bit away from the manifestation of the scenario that will trigger these moves. Still, some of the moves higher in gold and silver that will happen over the next 1-2 years will be so rapid and shocking that to most people, they will seem impossible given the psychological damage done by the past 18-month gold & silver correction and consolidation period. And to those that pay too much attention to the mainstream financial press and not enough to the realities of the physical, not paper, gold and silver markets, these violent moves higher will be likewise shocking.

Because gold and silver have been so suppressed for an extended period of time the consequent defensive actions of exiting PM mining stocks and re-purchasing them at solid re-entry points has left many gold and silver investors weary and with a negative outlook ahead. Though patience is a virtue when holding and stacking gold and silver assets, this virtue is much more easily vowed than practiced, especially during volatile periods of price behavior upward and downward during an extended consolidation phase. However, those that are able to see through the volatility games of banksters will see something entirely different – a solid base for gold and silver’s next move higher to escape the banking cartel’s price suppression schemes. Thus, even though it is likely for gold and silver assets to take a breather and for a pull back in prices to happen before the upward trek continues, whether gold and silver are rising or falling, every gold and silver investor needs to understand the top 3 rules when holding gold and silver assets. So here they are:

(1) Volatility Does Not Equal Risk.

Far from it. In fact most volatility in gold and silver is deliberately manufactured by the banking cartel, and is manufactured in fake paper derivative markets in which prices are set with absolutely zero regard for the actual physical supply and physical demand determinants of these two precious metals. Furthermore, since banker cartel manipulation of paper gold and silver derivatives plays such a big role in price volatility, moves in gold and silver are often just as violent to the upside as they are to the downside after long periods of consolidation, as violent moves higher are often caused by short-covering of panicked hedge funds and banking cartel members that are forced to unwind shorts when the momentum to the upside becomes too great for them to suppress. Furthermore, after brief periods of very quick rises, another short-term correction triggered by day traders taking profits and/or desperate banking cartel members’ actions in paper markets does not mean the uptrend has reversed back downward again…which bring us to Rule #2.

(2) Lack of Patience is the Greatest Enemy to Buyers of Gold, Silver and PM Mining Shares.

With physical gold and physical silver, bankers deliberately create massive volatility in paper prices at times to discourage the uninitiated from buying physical and to try to goad those already in to mistakenly sell. With PM mining shares, the greatest mistake investors make with this asset class is to let the bankster created artificial volatility in mining shares discourage them into selling out of all of their shares right before the next great leg higher. While it is true that the vast majority of gold and silver mining shares in the junior resource sector are junk and inflated pipe dreams, even cashed-up, solid junior mining companies will be taken down in price during bankster raids on paper gold and paper silver and thus, patience with junior mining companies is essential to coming out on top.

One of the top performing gold stocks lost more than 50% of its value a few years before the onset of the Great Depression before going on a spectacular +1,258% run higher that ended in1939. Those that were impatient because they were unable to see the big picture of the importance of gold during periods of severe economic instability sold out when this stock corrected sharply, locked in losses, and received none of the spectacular gains. Many today will repeat this same exact mistake.

(3) Ignore the White Noise and Disinformation Anti-Gold/Anti-Silver Campaigns of the Commercial Banking Industry.

Clients that allocate money to physical gold and physical silver purchases or PM mining share purchases translates into lost revenues for fee-based managed money commercial banking and brokerage firms because this normally translates into money that leaves these firms and never comes back. Thus, the vast majority of commercial banking/brokerage firm employees have great incentive to prevent their clients from purchasing any gold and silver assets of any nature, including even robust PM mining stocks.

Thus, when the most robust PM mining shares are at super undervalued valuations and represent a low-risk, high-reward set-up, commercial banking/brokerage firm employees are likely to tell you there is ZERO opportunity in PM mining shares. However, when great runs higher in gold and silver assets occur, uninformed commercial banking employees are likely to inform you of this situation and goad you into purchases right before the next steep correction, as was the case when silver hit $50 an ounce last year. A sharp, rapid and significant correction in the first month of buying gold and silver is a lesson likely to keep many “newbies” from ever returning to the gold and silver markets in the future.

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Dalam sebuah technical view untuk pasar, seorang analis terkemuka di Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick, dalam ‘Gold & Silver Chartapalooza’ yang diberikan untuk KWN (www.kingworldnews.com) menjelaskan bahwa emas dan perak akan kembali menembus rekor tertingginya.

Omong-omong, bukanlah tanpa alasan ia disebut analis terkemuka karena hampir setiap hasil kerjanya dinantikan dan untuk itu saya sarankan untuk mendengar apa yang dikatakannya.

Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam 3 laporan terpisah bulan ini, disertai grafik yang sangat bagus:

“We are constantly told that ‘Gold is a useless yellow metal’ with no real monetary value yet history belies this.  For over a decade it goes higher and higher and we hear the crescendo of cries that it is unsustainable and a bubble.  (There was no such crescendo about the equity markets in 2000 and again in 2007-Nasdaq in particular, or the Nikkei in 1990).

When the Oil price went from $10 to $147 it was explained away by peak Oil theory.  The housing market was ‘not a bubble’ and we had never had a national decline in prices (Never say never).  All of the above ended up being bubbles that burst as people participated in those trends with leverage and sent most of these markets up in multiples far greater than we have seen with Gold.

History also shows that markets rarely ‘implode’ when everybody is looking for it.  All the way up, every new $100 bounce raises the cries of ‘bubble’ again.  We believe this move is far from over and still expect Gold to be an outperforming asset for some years to come.

Gold is on the cusp of breaking out against the currencies of the USD-Index (As it did in 2006-2007) (EUR; JPY; GBP; CAD; SEK and CHF).  If you include Europe’s inevitable monetization then 86.7% of this index is made up of countries who are effectively printing money, as is the US.  It is no wonder that Gold should therefore be breaking out against paper currencies overall (see chart below).

“We now feel like we’ve at least got the first leg in what we think is the start of a move that’s going to take gold significantly higher.  Gold has broken out of the top of this triangle (see chart below), and above the downward sloping trend line.

That should open up the way now for a test of what we believe to be the more important level at around $1,791, which was the peak earlier in the year.  If gold can break through that level, and we believe gold will eventually, we will complete a double-bottom within the triangle, which will give a target in the region of $2,060 an ounce.

We’ve also had a close above the 55 week moving average.  It’s the first time we’ve seen that since the move down to the lows in May.  We also had two consecutive up-weeks in gold.  The last time we had two consecutive up-weeks off these similar lows was back in late December, early January.  This was the platform which gave us a move up to $1,791.

So the picture to us is looking increasingly positive in terms of the potential move.  Also, this move in gold continues to look very similar to the formation we saw into early 2007, before we started to see gold move higher.  If gold repeats that pattern, while the double-bottom targets $2,060, that 2007 pattern would suggest that we could be looking at something even higher, maybe as high as $2,450 to $2,500 as we move into the first quarter of 2013.”

Fitzpatrick juga menambahkan: “I think we had a lot of the breathing in gold, in terms of the moving back and forth, when we had a number of weeks of consolidation.  This went on for many weeks.  So I actually think that was the breathing mechanism.

Now it’s impressive not only that gold has pushed out here, but also that we have pushed out here with some momentum.  I think we can make a move towards that $1,791 level, in the weeks and months ahead, without it being the real acceleration in gold.  Our sense is the real acceleration is going to come when gold breaks through that $1,791 level.”

“You can still have corrections and track sideways occasionally, but to us the trend is solid.  The pattern is quite clear, and we still believe this $1,791 area is really quite critical in terms of the next leg higher for gold, as well as the $37.48 level on silver.

When we get a weekly close through both of those critical levels, we anticipate that will give us an acceleration which will take us up toward the targets on gold to the $2,055 area (see chart below), and silver back to the old highs near $50.  However, on a longer-term basis we believe we have a setup here which suggests that gold could continue to go higher for some time to come.

Fitzpatrick continues: “We’ve always been of the view, and are still of the view that gold is first and foremost a hard currency more so than it is a commodity.  So the building blocks are there for gold to continue to go higher, not just against the dollar but against all of the other paper currencies as well.

Given the dynamics that we have in the background, the similarities that we to the 70s, we would argue the combination of the similarities, and the major difference which is the money printing being exercised by all of the developed world’s central banks, we can see gold continue to follow a trend equal in magnitude to what we saw in the 70s.

Ignoring the final move, which was caused by a Russian invasion of Afghanistan, we need to get to $3,400 just to replicate the core move seen in the 70s.  We don’t see that, at the end of the day, as a particularly aggressive call.”

 

Demikian dengan Ben Davies, seorang CEO dari Hinde Capital, yang baru-baru ini berbicara kepada King World News dan mengatakan bahwa dirinya sangat yakin bahwa pergerakan emas saat ini akan mendorongnya menuju $2400-$2500.  Berikut adalah keyakinannya yang mengatakan bahwa emas akan naik jauh lebih tinggi dari levelnya saat ini:

“Our trend intensity signal suggested the median was 10% (for this move).  But in reality, when we have such readiness in the market, we really are looking for at least (a) 20% to 25% (move).

In light of the policy decisions that have been made, and the fact that the market has been surreptitiously held back, and that’s without a doubt, I think we really are pulling out the cork here.  So I feel that by the end of the year gold will be over $2,000.  I really feel that by May of next year, we’ll be $2,400 to $2,500.  We’re starting a primary trend here.

So here’s the problem.  I’ve just given you some target levels.  The market has run up quite a lot.  The market feels structurally short.  The market participants are not there yet.  So the next pullback in the market, and potentially there will be one from these levels, but not that deep, you have to buy it.

I would even go so far as to say that the market is not going to pull back much more than $1,735 to $1,740.  Now it’s very to underestimate, when a market has run up, how far it can pull back, but it just doesn’t feel like market participants are in there yet, and I think even a shallow dip like that is going to bring strong buying in.”

 

Sebelum mengakhiri laporan ini, ada sejumlah kata-kata bijak di bawah ini dari Solomon Ibn Gabirol serta kutipan lelucon yang cerdas dari Woody Allen:

“There are four kinds of men in this world:

  1. The man who knows, and knows that he knows; he is wise, so consult him.
  2. The man who knows, but does not know that he knows: help him to not forget what he knows.
  3. The man who knows not, and knows that he knows not; teach him.
  4. Finally there is the man who knows not, but pretends that he knows; he is a fool, therefore avoid him.”

-Solomon Ibn Gabirol

 

“In my next life, I want to live my life backwards.  You start out dead and get that out of the way.  Then you wake up in an old people’s home feeling better every day.  You get kicked out for being too healthy, go collect your pension, and then when you start work, you get a gold watch and a party on your first day.  You work for 40 years until you’re young enough to enjoy your retirement.  You party, drink alcohol, and are generally promiscuous, then you are ready for high school.  You then go to primary school, you become a kid, you play.  You have no responsibilities, you become a baby until you are born.  And then you spend your last 9 months floating in luxurious spa-like conditions with central heating and room service on tap, larger quarters every day and then Voila! you finish off as an orgasm!”

-Woody Allen

Dibuat Tanggal 24 September 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Adios Rajoy? (Bagian 2)

September 21st, 2012 1 comment

“The simple reality is this: The Euro zone is absolutely unworkable in its present form and, if those in charge of it don’t decide on their own that it needs to be reworked, then markets will make that decision for them.  If and when they do, it will be anything but ‘manageable’.  Spain will need a bailout that will dwarf those given to Ireland and Greece, the Greeks will have to cut loose and forced to return to the Drachma and governments will fall right across the continent before this is settled, bringing the kind of political instability and strength amongst extreme parties that hasn’t been seen since the dark days of the 1930s – a return to which the Euro zone was ironically designed to specifically prevent.”

-Grant Williams, Portfolio and Strategy Advisor for Vulpes Investment Management


Jika Anda masih mengira situasi di Spanyol dapat diatasi dan negara tersebut tidak memerlukan bailout penuh, maka artikel dari Mark J. Grant, penulis Out of the Box, berikut tentunya masuk dalam kategori HARUS DIBACA:

Spain: Shall Bitterly Begin His Fearful Date

The data out from Spain this morning should be one serious wake-up call for anyone exposed to Europe. The fourth largest economy in the Euro zone is getting hammered and for anyone that has doubted that they will need a full scale bailout; think again. The numbers are a disaster. Deposits at the Spanish banks dropped by a record amount in July, -$93 billion which is a decline of -4.7% in just one month. On a year-over-year basis the decline in deposits is 12.0% but the trend in loss of deposits is escalating rapidly. The total banking deposits in Spain are $1.51 trillion we are told and the loss in deposits is 56.4% on an annualized basis which, if this trend continues, would effectively wipe out the capital of each and every bank in Spain. With an economy that has shrunk to $1.3 trillion the drop in bank deposits represents a 6.6% loss of capital to support the economy. This is not a leak, as reported by some in the Press, but a bank run. Spain also reported out for June bad loans at 9.4% ($205.45 billion) which is the highest on record as reported but it is also a number which may not be believed!

Beginning in 2000 the Spanish banks, with full support from the government of Spain, began what is called “dynamic provisioning.” Please allow me to explain this arcane phrase to you in simple English; it means the official allowance of “cooking the books;” it does not mean anything else regardless of what you may see bandied about in the Press. It means that losses and reserves can be shifted and modified from one quarter to the next and it also means that categories, such a Real Estate losses or provisions, may be falsified by some bank or by the government of Spain to show what they wish to show or hide what they wish to hide. This is why I have stated and re-stated so many times that the financials of the Spanish banks are garbage or worse and cannot be trusted.

In 2009 the Bank of Spain’s Director of Financial Stability wrote the following in a paper published by the World Bank.

“Dynamic loan loss provisions can help deal with the procyclicality in banking. Their anticyclical nature enhances the resilience of both individual banks and the banking system as a whole. While there is no guarantee that they will be enough to cope with all of the credit losses of a downturn, dynamic provisions have proved useful in Spain during the current financial crisis.”

Several years ago Spain, along with the rest of the European Union, adopted the International Financial Reporting Standards but the adoption did not mean implementation. The EU from 2000 to today has allowed Spain to utilize their own accounting rules, this “dynamic provision” financial scam and so the books for all of the Spanish banks have been inaccurate, have been a lie, have been a fraud for the last twelve years. This is strong language and I am quite aware of it but it is accurate language and categorizes what Spain and its banks have done.

Consequently even when you read today’s numbers and when you try to put them in perspective one can only guess because it is obvious that the data is purposefully minimized in favor of the government and of the banks so that investors can be fooled by the make believe figures.

Real Numbers

First let me state that it is quite impossible to get any kind of accurate figures for any and all of the Spanish banks. You can look at the actual Real Estate prices in the Spanish market and realize that the Spanish banks are overvaluing their holdings by about 40% and there is a starting point for defining the seriousness of the problem. One can then guess, and it is a guess but a rational one, that not only are the Real Estate provisions wrong and inadequate but that the reserves are inadequate, that the losses are far greater than reported and that the scam of utilizing “dynamic provisioning” is applicable to all of the Spanish bank loans which, if close to reality, would mean that all of the banks in Spain are insolvent. This would mean bankrupt and only being kept alive by falsified numbers. This is not the end of the problem however and it is only a small leap to a far worse situation.

If the government of Spain is allowing this “dynamic provisioning” for their banks; what makes you think that they are not using the exact same scheme for their national data? If Spain is allowing the numbers for their banks to be cooked then I would assert that they are following the same plan with the country’s numbers so that nothing about the Spanish banks or the Spanish GDP, debt to GDP and the size of their economy is even remotely believable. I would state that we know almost nothing that is real about Spain or her banks and that Spain is a fairy tale wrapped in deceit and bound in giant lies to preserve the country in her state of disgrace.

A Vastly Increased Risk

One year ago the Central Bank of Spain was borrowing $71.53 billion from the European Central Bank. In the last figures available, July, the Central Bank of Spain was borrowing $530.8 billion (an increase of 86.5%) from the ECB either directly or through the Target2 funding which impacts the Bundesbank and Germany quite directly. In other words Germany is now at a huge risk which is not just their 22% ownership of the ECB but a direct and full risk of impairment or default by Spain in the Target2 funding provided by the Bundesbank.

SPAIN’S SOVEREIGN OBLIGATIONS

Sovereign Debt                                   $763 Billion

ECB/Target2 Debt                              $530.8 Billion

Regional Debt                                     $175.7 Billion

Spain’s Bank Gtd. Debt                      $153 Billion

Total Direct Debt of Spain               $1,622.50 Billion

Spanish GDP (If Believed)               $1,331.00 Billion

Spanish Direct Debt to GDP Ratio        121.90%**

**This does not include Spain’s obligations to the EU or the ECB nor does it include corporate debt that has been guaranteed by Spain which would raise the debt to GDP ratio considerably.

Some consequence, yet hanging in the stars, Shall bitterly begin his fearful date, With this night’s revels, and expire the term

-William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Selain itu penggalan informasi Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com pada 18 Juni lalu mengenai krisis yang sedang berlangsung di Eropa, dari laporannya yang berjudul Biderman on Europe: Germany Must Say No To Greece, Spain, & Italy, benar-benar lurus.

Dijelaskan secara singkat apa yang salah dengan negara-negara pinggiran Eropa, dan bagaimana hal itu dapat diatasi dengan sangat mudah (jika ada kemauan politik yang setidaknya dapat mengubah tindakan mereka saat ini):

“After offering his condolences for the loss today of Dan Dorfman, Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs, takes the Greeks (and Germans) to task. Charles remains long-term bearish on European stocks (and the big US banks). Greeks, it appears from Charles perspective, want to stay in the Euro but on easier terms. This, at first glance, perplexes the less-than-sanguine Sausalitan, given the disastrous economic situation they remain in. However, on reflection, Biderman realizes that the simple fact is that the Greeks like the ability to borrow money to pay their bills and even better, never having to repay the loan – which makes perfect sense.

If the Germans are willing to keep lending to Greece, even if most goes to repay old loans, then Greeks keep getting some new cash – which would disappear if the Greeks left the Euro. This situation, he opines, would seem ‘horrible’ as “Greeks might have to go and do something for a living and even pay some taxes”. Concluding on the three types of creditors that exist, it is little wonder that the Greeks, in their ponzi state, would want to keep the dream alive and hold the M.A.D. grenade over Germany’s head just a little longer.

The brutal truth is that Greece (and Spain and Italy) will take as much cash as they can until there is no more given and then-and-only-then will they act for change. The disastrous end-result will be the same as if Germany left the Euro and first mover advantage in this case may well prove exceptionally valuable.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada awal September lalu, Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com telah mengingatkan dalam laporannya yang berjudul Spain’s Debt Buyer of Last Resort Becomes Seller in Scramble to Fund Deposit Outflows, mengenai kebutuhan dana Spanyol yang akan berlanjut menekan pasar.

Berikut adalah sejumlah paragraf yang paling penting dalam laporan tersebut, disertai sejumlah grafik yang menunjukkan tingkat keparahan krisis hutang yang sedang berlangsung:

“Several days ago we reported that Spanish financial institutions suffered the largest deposit outflow on record in the month of July when a whopping EUR74 billion, or 5% of the country’s entire asset base, picked up and left, the bulk of it most likely taking the well-known path of least resistance to the safety of Swiss and German bank vaults. We showed how this looks visually, and as the chart below confirms it can be summarized in one word only: waterfall.

 

… add to this the surge in Spanish bad debt, which as we reported recently soared to an all time high: NPLs which will have to be provisioned for with cash-hungry charge offs, and one can see why suddenly from a perfect summer, Spain may head straight into the perfect storm.

Spanish loan delinquencies bad and getting worse in a hurry…

And with the August vacation now in the rearview mirror, here is why should the deposit outflows persist, Spain may have a problem or two funding itself now that the peak of its gross issuance is upon us:

  • 6 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 18 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 20 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 25 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 4 October: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 16 October: Spain auction. Bills
  • 18 October: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 23 October: Spain auction. Bills

Graphically, supply is set to rise significantly in September and October for Spain:

Dan meski kesemuanya teratasi di tahun 2012, sejak 1 Januari 2013 akan menghadapi penurunan. Seperti yang dijelaskan oleh UBS:

Spain’s situation is even more worrisome when looking at next year’s funding requirements.

In 2013, Spain will need to refinance around EUR 60bn of maturing Bonos and Obligaciones while issuing an additional EUR 45bn to cover its public deficit. In this analysis, we assume that the government’s targets for next year are reached. This amount needs to include the funding for the deficit of local administration since regional issuance is unlikely to resume next year. Similarly, the central government very likely will need to cover the EUR 15 billion of Spanish regional debt maturing in 2013, which as it stands now cannot be otherwise refinanced. Additional central government funding may also need to be provided for maturing Spanish international and agency debt such as FADE bonds for a further EUR 3-4bn.

All in all, the total amount of gross bond issuance from Spain in 2013 could be in excess of EUR 120bn. That is around 40% higher than this year, 10-20% higher than in 2009 and almost four times larger than the average amount of Spanish bond issuance recorded in the previous four years.

Oops.

Perhaps at this point the only thing that can save Spain now that the 1 month respite from reality is over, is fast forwarding straight to the Christmas break, and the inevitable LTRO X, which the ECB will have to do in order to provide additional funding to Spain, which unlike before, however, will no longer work as Spain and the rest of Europe, are out of eligible collateral, meaning the ECB will have to get the Buba to agree to even more last minute rule changes to keep Spain “solvent.”

Agar tetap ceria menjelang akhir pekan, berikut adalah sebuah gambar lucu terkait dengan pemilu presiden AS yang akan datang:

Di pekan mendatang, saya akan membahas 2 hal yang merupakan favorit saya, yaitu bursa saham dan pasar komoditas emas. Selama berakhir pekan dan jaga diri Anda …

Dibuat Tangga; 21 September 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Adios Rajoy? (Bagian 1)

September 21st, 2012 No comments

“Remember that the euro zone consists of 17 separate entities. Germany is by far the largest.  France is number two, Italy number three.  Spain is (or perhaps was) number four, at about 12% of the total weight.  Each time a domino falls, the member state requires assistance from the remaining member states.  When Greece fell into financial disarray and then failure, the other 16 states had to provide the subsidy.  When Ireland fell, there were 15.  Portugal made it 14.  Cyprus made it 13.  Now Spain leaves 12 remaining. As the dominoes continue to fall, the costs are reapportioned among the remainder, which is a shrinking cohort.  We are beyond worry about Spain.  It is now a question of survival or failure for Spanish governmental finance.”

-David R. Kotok, writing on The Big Picture blog

Sebelum memulai pembahasan tentang masalah di Spanyol, saya ingin menunjukkan sebuah tanggal yang sangat menarik, yang disebut the Autumnal Equinox.  Mungkin Anda akan bertanya, ‘Apa hubungannya dengan bursa?’, karena itu kurang-lebih sama dengan hari lain di tahun ini.

Namun setelah membaca artikel berikut, yang lagi-lagi merupakan sebuah kontribusi dari Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com, Anda mungkin akan terkejut mengetahui dampak besarnya pada sistem saraf manusia dan pasar finansial secara umum:

“With tomorrow’s CDS roll (when indices change composition and on-the-run maturities are extended) and Friday’s major equity option expiration and S&P index reweightings, it would appear, as UBS’ Art Cashin notes, that the action of the last few days (and even last week) will be largely driven by the creation of complex strategies to “milk out every ounce of profit that might be available in such huge [technical] shifts.” Combine this technical factor with the Autumnal Equinox, of W.D.Gann infamy, and the stage is set for fireworks as we approach Friday.

Via UBS’ Art Cashin:

Pre-Expiration Shuffling May Have Bailed Out Final Hour – As we noted last week, Wall Street is abuzz with speculation about Friday’s Expiration. Not only is it a quarterly but it will involve a rather massive reweighing of the S&P indices. At one point it was guesstimated that Coca-Cola might see 50 million for sale on the close.

With such large shifts possible, the Wall Street wizards naturally began setting up complicated strategies to milk out every ounce of profit that might be available in such huge shifts. Combinations of stock and options and futures and even ETFs are cobbled together to yield great reward as they are unraveled at the expiration.

The setting up of those strategies and combinations is done over the days leading up to the event. Wall Street watering holes say the process actually began last week.

That means that traders must weigh in a new consideration along with things like economics, monetary policy, geo-politics and corporate events. It makes the days leading up to the Expiration a bit more unpredictable than usual. We think it was a factor yesterday.

Revisiting Wall Street folklore and The Autumnal Equinox – In past years at this time, I have quoted my pal, Dennis Gartman’s citation of a piece on seasonality and late September by his good friend, Paul Macrea Montgomery. (Paul has become a bit of a legend over the years for his ability to dig out arcane or overlooked clues to the market – wish I could do that.) Anyway, here’s a bit of what I quoted last year:

The legendary trader W.D. Gann reportedly claimed that capital and commodity markets tend to top on or around September 22nd more oft than on any other day of the year. There is not apparent economic logic behind this reported observation, but the notion might very well have a certain appeal to astrologers, in as much as September 22nd happens to be the usual date of the Autumnal Equinox…the day that the earth crosses the Sun’s equator going south, and one of the two dates each year that the days and nights are of equal duration.

This is the day which, according to ancient lore, the Sun enters its “Fall,” thereby reversing for a time the rising animal spirits and other good things associated with Spring and Summer, and setting the stage for untoward events to unfold. Apparently this concept is so ancient it pre-dates even the oldest Mesopotamian culture.

Initially, we never took such notions seriously. This was despite the authority of W.D. Gann and even despite the research from the Department of Neuranatomy at Yale Medical School, which discovered that the human nervous system typically undergoes measurable perturbations during the late September time period (and in mid-March as well). However, subsequent to hearing of Gann’s proposed rule, and of Yale’s medical research, we have experienced firsthand the October Massacre of 1978; the October Massacre of 1987; the October Crashette of 1989; the 1997 Asian Collapse; the Long Term Capital rescue on September 23, 1998, etc. Also, remember the great Gold Boom of the 1970s, while bullion peaked on January 21, 1980, the Gold and Silver stocks made their all time bull market highs on September 22, 1980.

This day also saw the major peak of many oil stocks, which were enjoying a parallel bull market at the time. Also prior to the Great Crash of 1929, the last stock index to make its then all time peak… the Dow Jones Utility Average… did so on September 21, 1929. Even as far back as 1873, there was such a panic that the New York Stock Exchange voted, on September 21st to temporarily close its doors…

Besides stock market moves, numerous currency market moves also have keyed off this date. On September 21, 1931, for example, the British pound was devalued 28% overnight… from $4.84 to $3.50. Also, the now famous Plaza Accord of September 21, 1985, which started a dramatic run in currencies, occurred on the exact 54th anniversary of Britain’s leaving the gold standard. And recall a decade or so ago in 1992 when the French vote on the Maastricht European Exchange Rate Treaty was set for Sunday, September 20th. The British pound sterling collapsed a few days immediately previous to this vote… And finally, recall that the historic Gould-Fisk Gold Corner Panic” saw riot conditions as Gold peaked exactly on September 21st… the year was 1869.

As I have explained over the years, much of that seasonality was understandable prior to 1929. The U.S. was an agrarian society. To pay for crops, money would leave city banks for country banks. That often led to temporary liquidity squeezes in the city banks which sometimes produced financial crisis. Now we have a Federal Reserve system and we’re highly urbanized but the seasonality seems to linger. Anyway, thanks to Dennis and Paul.

That means this Friday’s (September 21st) huge Expiration and reweighting are all the more important to watch.”

Nampaknya mulai banyak pakar yang belakangan sadar akan kenyataan bahwa Spanyol tidak akan mampu bertahan. Bahkan Nomura akhirnya mengerti dan menyatakan bahwa Spain will need a full-blown bailout which will include a more active role of the ECB in Spanish bond markets.

Juga Bloomberg belakangan ini melaporkan yang berikut:

  • Capital flight from Spain is in a “category of its own,” with extreme, broad-based outflows raising “serious concerns about the implications for banking sector stability and economic growth,” Nomura strategists Jens Nordvig and Charles St.-Arnaud write in client note.
  • Capital outflows on 3-month rolling basis at 50% of GDP vs. Italy 15%; for comparison, Indonesia outflow during Asian crisis peaked at 23%
  • Foreign selling of Spanish securities in 2Q equal to 19.4% of GDP; also liquidate Spanish bank claims at 15.3% of GDP in 2Q
  • Spanish residents shift funds to foreign banks at rate of 16.7% of GDP in 2Q
  • Spain fills capital gap through Target 2 borrowing, currently at €408 bln or 39% of GDP;
  • Overall capital flight from euro zone vs. rest of world “normalized to some degree” after earlier outflows: SNB intervention in July at €35 bln, about half of May and June; TIC data for June show US investors net buyers of euro zone bonds, euro zone residents modest sellers of US Treasuries

Kemudian Graham Summers, yang merupakan seorang Chief Market Strategist di Phoenix Capital Research dan merupakan salah satu pengamat pasar finansial tercerdik saat ini, memberikan komentar tentang krisis Eropa yang sungguh patut untuk didengar.

Hari Minggu lalu Summers menulis laporan terbarunya yang luar biasa mengenai perkembangan di Spanyol dengan judul Spain is Greece … Only Bigger and Worse.  Satu hal yang perlu diyakini: Summers tidak berbelit-belit melainkan sangat spesifik mengomentari segala sesuatu yang tidak beres di negara Mediterania yang indah tersebut:

“As I’ve outlined in earlier articles, Spain will be the straw that breaks the EU’s back. The country’s private Debt to GDP is above 300%. Spanish banks are loaded with toxic debts courtesy of a housing bubble that makes the US’s look like a small bump in comparison. And the Spanish government is bankrupt as well.

Indeed, in the last month alone we’ve seen:

  1. Spain’s banking system saw a bank run to the tune of €70 billion in August. The market cap for all of Spain’s banks is just €114 billion. So Spanish banks need to raise at least €20+ billion or so per month in the coming months to stay afloat. This is without depositors pulling additional funds in September onwards. That’s really bad news.
  2. Spain’s now nationalized Bankia just took another €5.4 billion from Spain’s in-country rescue fund. This indicates that once nationalized, problem banks DO NOT cease to be problems.
  3. The region of Andalusia is requesting a bailout from the Spanish Federal Government. This comes on the heels of bailout requests from the regions of Valencia, Murcia and Catalonia (none of which want any “conditions” on the funds).
  4. Spain has set aside €18 billion to bailout its regions. The current bailout requests already amount to €10.8 billion. That’s just from this year alone.

If you need more info on Spain, the bullet items from them that you need to know are that:

  1. A huge portion of Spain’s banking system (representing over 50% of mortgage loans AND deposits) was totally unregulated up until just a few years ago.
  2. Spanish banks were drawing €337 billion from the ECB on a monthly basis to fund their liquidity needs.
  3. Every political figure and bank in Spain is HIGHLY incentivized to lie about the true nature of the Spanish banking system (a private text message from the Prime Minister claimed the REAL capital needs were closer to €500 billion… which is assuming he knows what he’s talking about/ the banks were honest with him… which I HIGHLY doubt).

Indeed, the markets are beginning to figure out that Spain is DONE regardless of what the ECB does. The truth is that Spain is in as bad a shape as Greece if not worse. Expect things to get very, very ugly soon.

The reason is twofold:

  1. Spanish banks need to roll over (meaning renew terms on) more than 20% of their bonds this year.
  2. Spanish sovereign bonds are collateral for hundreds of billions of Euros’ worth of trades.

With Spanish banks already under severe funding stress (again, they drew €337 billion from the ECB before the new OMT program… and depositors took €70 billion out of the system last month), they’re in no position to start paying out higher interest payments to bondholders.

And with investors realizing that Spain’s banks are all lying about the state of their balance sheets (remember, Bankia was talking about paying a dividend just one month before it collapsed and revised its €41 million 2011 profit to a €3.3 billion LOSS), we’re going to be seeing plenty of bank failures this year.

Remember, Spain’s initial request was for the EU to bail out its banks NOT the country itself. However, with some six Spanish regions (probably more) looking for bailouts Spain is now facing both a sovereign debt AND a banking crisis.

The timing of this issue will be difficult due to the ECB’s intervention, but at the end of the day, the math doesn’t add up. Spain has big problems and when the market figures out that the ECB cannot solve them… it’s going to be a very difficult time in Europe.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Untuk menunjukkan kepada Anda bagaimana mengerikannya situasi di Eropa, berikut 2 grafik yang cukup jelas dari Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com:

1) Spain’s Hell Is a Bankruptcy Lawyer’s Heaven

You’ve seen Spanish youth unemployment rates soaring; been brow-beaten with data on the dramatic rise and acceleration of Spanish bank non-performing loans; and the rate of Spanish capital outflows chart is now ubiquitous; but where there is pain, there is also pleasure. As we are always looking on the bright-side and trying to find a silver-lining, Michael Cembalest provides just such a chart. To wit, the unprecedented surge in corporate bankruptcies in Spain; without question, a boon for the bankruptcy-lawyer industry and perhaps just the economic boost the country needs. Tongue-out-of-cheek, this is just a disastrous chart of reality on the ground.

 

2) Spanish Bad Loans Soar By Most Ever In Past Quarter to All-Time Highs

A month ago we warned that loan delinquencies in Spain were bad and getting worse at a concerning rate. The most recent data update, which revised that ‘bad’ print to absolutely dismal, has broken records for just how ugly things are for Rajoy and his fellow countrymen. Spanish bank loan delinquencies rose to an all-time (50-year) record 9.86% with the last four months seeing simply unprecedented acceleration in the rate of bad loans. Numerically, this means that an absolutely whopping €172 billion of the €1.7 trillion in Spanish financial assets is now money bad, and will no longer  generate cash flows. This amounts to about 17% of total Spanish GDP. In GDP-equivalent terms, this would be equivalent to $2.5 trillion in US bank loans being “bad.” Which, when one cuts all the prevarication and lies, is probably what the true status of the US financial system is. Add to this the now relentless deposit flight which is depleting Spanish bank coffers and one can see why the European credit death spiral is very aptly named.

Spanish bank bad-loan percentage…

Di akhir laporan ini saya akan mengetengahkan sebuah lelucon tentang bankir:

One night at a bar, a conventioneer sits down next to an attractive woman and orders a drink.

The woman, apparently having already downed a few drinks, turns around, faces him, looks him straight in the eye, and says, “Listen here, good looking.  I screw anybody, anytime, anywhere, your place, my place, in the car, front door, back door, on the ground, standing up, sitting down, naked or with clothes on; it doesn’t matter to me.  I just love it!”

Eyes now wide with interest, he responds, “No kidding!  I’m in banking too!

Dibuat Tanggal 20 September 2012

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