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Apakah Spanyol akan Bernasib Sama dengan Yunani?

October 31st, 2012 No comments

“Since all of the euro bloc surprises in the last couple of years have been negative, and since the answer to every question about the ultimate cost of preserving the euro is “more than you thought yesterday,” the metaphor of a slow-motion train wreck seems quite appropriate.”

-Paul Singer, founder and CEO of hedge fund Elliott Management Corporation

Nampaknya Spanyol akan menjadi negara berikut yang memberikan banyak masalah (dan kepusingan) pada ekonomi dunia pada umumnya dan zona euro pada khususnya. Setelah Yunani, Portugal dan Irlandia masing-masing menerima bailout – bahkan Yunani sudah dua kali – Spanyol sedikit-banyak akan dipaksa meminta bailout dalam rentang waktu yang tak terlalu panjang ke depan.

Karena suatu gambar dapat bernilai ribuan kata, pada laporan hari ini saya memasukkan sejumlah grafik yang menunjukkan tingkat keparahan krisis ekonomi dan sosial yang mendalam saat ini di Spanyol. Tapi sebelum itu, saya ingin menyajikan dua artikel yang HARUS DIBACA dari orang-orang yang telah menulis tak kenal lelah tentang situasi yang memburuk di Spanyol.

Yang pertama berasal dari Grant Williams, yang merupakan Portofolio & Strategy Advisor pada Vulpes Investment Management di Singapura serta penulis dari “Things that make you go hmmm”. Di dalamnya, ia memberikan peringatan keras tentang bahaya menjadi puas pada janji Mario Draghi untuk membeli obligasi pemerintah Spanyol:

“Spain, like Greece, cannot be trusted to publish accurate economic statistics because the stakes are way too high and the true numbers likely far too shocking.  For the time being, however, the market is happy to turn a blind eye to that fact because there is still money to be made from gaming the largesse of Mario Draghi’s “unlimited” backstop.  But mark my words, the time will come when Mr. Market decides there is more money to be made from testing the resolve of Signor Draghi and the veracity of Spanish economic statistics, and when that day comes, there will be nothing that Mariano Rajoy, Mario Draghi, the ECB or the combined might of the Eurocrats can do to alter the outcome.

As always, forget the talk, ignore the rhetoric and discount words like “manageable,” “impossible,” “not an option” and “believe me.”  Beneath all this lies a set of fundamental mathematical equations, and last time I checked, the laws of mathematics weren’t something that could be subverted.

Whether it’s Greece or Spain is irrelevant.  Something has to give here, and when it does, the genie will be out of the bottle for good.  That day is approaching much faster than many realize – a fact Jeremy Warner elaborated upon in an article titled simply, “Spain Must Leave the Euro”:

(Jeremy Warner): Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, has been digging his heels in over requesting any form of bail-out, despite the evident need for one as the Spanish economy slips ever deeper into recession and the budget deficit widens back into double digits.  There is now no chance whatsoever of Spain meeting its fiscal targets.

Less than a year after sweeping to power in a landslide victory, Mr. Rajoy is already fatally wounded.  He promised never to apply taxpayers’ money to bailing out the banks.  He already has.  He promised not to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal into a sovereign bail-out.  Now, other than leaving the euro, he’s got no choice.  Even on gay marriage, Mr. Rajoy has failed to deliver as promised.

A further €40bn package of austerity measures has been announced in a desperate bid to get ahead of what Brussels wants of Spain and, we must suppose, thereby obtain a somehow unconditional bail-out, allowing national pride to be salvaged.  These measures are almost bound to be self-defeating, for they threaten further to sink the economy, thereby making deficit reduction tougher still.  Spain is chasing its tail into austerity-induced fiscal and economic meltdown.  Mr. Rajoy is a dead man walking.

Other than leaving monetary union and defaulting on its euro debts, which for the moment even the rebellious Catalans don’t seem to want, is there any way out for Spain?  The answer looks ever more likely to be no.

Membership of monetary union is preventing the application of appropriate monetary policy to the periphery sovereigns.  The single currency has also denied Europe the natural market mechanism of free floating exchange rates to correct deficiencies in competitiveness and reduce external indebtedness.

There is only one conclusion to be drawn from all this; though the short-term costs would be profound, Spain must leave the single currency.

Spain is damned if it leaves, but damned for eternity if it stays.  Euro zone policy as it stands offers no plausible way back to prosperity.

Hear, hear Jeremy.  Hear, hear.”

Yang kedua dari Graham Summers, yang saat ini bekerja sebagai Chief Market Strategist untuk Phoenix Capital Research dan salah satu pengamat pasar finansial yang paling cerdas saat ini.  Graham tidak pernah bertele-tele dan pada kesempatan ini juga memberikan pandangannya dengan sangat jelas dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Spain is 100% Totally Beyond Saving:

“My prediction regarding the breakup of the EU was obviously way early.

However, the fact remains that the EU will break up in time. And it will likely be Spain that brings this about.

The reasons? Among other things:

  1. Spain’s private Debt to GDP is above 300%.
  2. A huge portion of Spain’s banking system (representing over 50% of mortgage loans AND deposits) was totally unregulated up until just a few years ago.
  3. Spanish banks are drawing over €400 billion from the ECB on a monthly basis (up from €377 in June) to fund their liquidity needs.
  4. Spanish banks are now net sellers of Spanish sovereign bonds (leaving the ECB as the only buyer in the market)
  5. Spain’s banking system has lost 18% of its deposits in the last 10 months due to a staggering bank run.
  6. The economy of Spain is a disaster with total unemployment over 25% and youth unemployment above 50%.
  7. Spain is now facing a constitutional crisis with various regions looking to secede if they don’t receive bailouts from the Federal Government “without conditions.”
  8. Spanish banks need to roll over (meaning renew terms on) more than 20% of their bonds this year.

So Spain will suffer a collapse, most likely of its banking system resulting in a sovereign default (barring a bailout). When this happens, some €1 trillion+ worth of collateral (still rated AAA by EU banks) will be sucked out of the system.

This in turn will spur margin and collateral calls on tens of trillions of Euros’ worth of derivative trades.

And the EU Financial System collapses.

This is reality, regardless of who wins the US election. It may take a few months before it hits… but it will hit.

On that note, if you are not preparing for a bloodbath in the markets, now is the time to do so. The reality is that the Central Banks are fast losing their grip on the markets. They’ll never admit this publicly, but I can assure you that Bernanke and pals are scared stiff by what’s happening in the banking system right now.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Seluruh grafik berikut diambil dari Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com, yang dalam beberapa bulan terakhir dengan tanpa lelah telah melaporkan krisis Eropa. Menurut pendapat saya, grafik-grafik tersebut menggambarkan kondisi yang mengerikan di ekonomi Spanyol dengan sangat baik dan menunjukkan bahwa akhir yang jelas belum lah terlihat:

1)  The Misery In Spain Is Everywhere… And Has Never Been Higher

We, just like everyone else, have grown quite tired of all phrases containing some variant of “Pain in Spain.” Which is why instead we are focusing on its Misery. As in Misery Index, defined as the combination of inflation and unemployment. Following today’s announcement of a surge in Spanish inflation which soared from 2.7% to 3.5%, trouncing expectations of a modest rise to 2.8%, it is clear to see that the Misery in Spain has never been higher.

… which for some context – is double the misery of the average European or Italian and triple that of an American…

Charts: Bloomberg

2)  Chart of the Day: Spanish Bad Loans Hit New Parabolic Record

It just refuses to get any better in Spain, whose banks are now aggressively marking down real estate to something resembling fair value. Last month we reported that Spanish bad loans jumped by the most ever, rising by over 1% to just under 10%. Today, last month’s number was revised even higher to 10.1%. But the worst news is that the August bad loan total just hit a fresh record of €178.6 billion, or 10.5% of the total €1,698.7 billion in bank loans. Making things worse is that the primary bank funding lifeline – deposits – continues to flow out. That both Spain, and its banking sector are utterly insolvent, is clear to anyone but Oliver Wyman and those who have bought SPGBs (although granted the latter are merely hoping for a quick flip). And the ECB of course. Indicatively, as a % of GDP, this would be equivalent to roughly $2.7 trillion in US bank loans going sour (for more on the collapse of Spanish banking, and the laughable stress test whose worst case has already become the baseline, read here). The chart summarizing this staggering statistic is below.

3)  One Quarter of All Spanish Workers without a Job: Female Unemployment in Ceuta Region Hits 57%

One in four Spaniards are now officially out of work – well over double the euro-area’s average 11.4% rate. This is the highest rate of unemployment since the Franco dictatorship ended in the mid-1970s as 5.8 million now stand idle. Perhaps more stunning is the fact that eight of the bailout-nation’s regions have higher unemployment rates than the national average with Ceuta at a stunning 41.03% (with women’s unemployment rate in that region an almost incomprehensible 56.92%)!! The YoY increase of almost 800,000 people unemployed leaves 1.74 million households with no members employed. As one would expect, loan delinquencies are also surging as Caixabank just almost doubled its pool of bad loans in the third quarter. While Rajoy fiddles…

Spain’s Unemployment Rate Hits 25.02% – the highest since the 1970s!

4)  Presenting Spain’s Economic Collapse in Context

We have presented many charts over the last few weeks showing the collapse in retail sales in Spain, along with surging unemployment, bankruptcies and non-performing bank loans. But to do justice to the situation, you’ve got to put it in context of the last 150 years, and JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest provides just such context. Spain’s adventure in the Euro zone has sent it into an economic tailspin the likes of which have not been seen, with the exception of the Spanish Civil War, since the 19th century. At that time, the Spanish empire was at the tail end of its colonial decline, and was an under-regulated, agrarian, closed economy subject to frequent crises. The chart shows the details, highlighting the economic declines during revolutions, depressions and agricultural epidemics. Spain’s recent decline has now matched them.

Source: JPMorgan

5)  The Housing Pain in Spain Has Not Bottomed

The pain in Spain is reaching the upper-class. Foreclosures has previously disproportionately affected lower-income immigrants but is now spreading to formerly well-to-do families, as Bloomberg Businessweek notes that they are running out of ways to pay mortgages in a deepening recession. Home price drops are re-accelerating as “repossessions are encroaching further into the city centers, like an overflowing river.”

The path to this end sounds very familiar as “Bank managers, who had aggressive targets to meet, did all they could to lend to those who wanted to carry on buying into the bubble” and the saddest case of all as parental guarantors were used to spread the risk as “The kids lose their homes, go live with mom and dad and then mom and dad lose the home that they worked all their lives to pay for because it backed their children’s debts.”

At the peak of the housing boom in 2007, purchasing a home in Spain cost 7.7 times a family’s annual gross income on average, compared with 5 times in the U.S. Labor market reforms, under Rajoy’s austerity measures, making it cheaper to lay off traditionally secure workers are expected to accelerate defaults on retail mortgages. The situation is grave and summed up sadly “These people completely lose their purpose in life, everything they had or will ever have in the future will go to the bank.”

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

Supaya Anda tidak kehilangan senyum, berikut adalah sebuah Spanish Gallows Humor: “Cuts… Are Necessary” (yang juga dari Tyler Durden at www.zerohedge.com):

“It seems the underground economy in Spain is picking up. Hand-crafted T-Shirts have become all the rage as the youth of the country send a subtle message to their leaders… The good news – the shirts are still priced in EURs, likely signifying ongoing confidence in the failed monetary experiment. Although we are confident pricing in New Pesetas is available upon request.”

Shirts available here.

Hint – Translation

(h/t @bagoshine)

Dibuat Tanggal 29 Oktober 2012

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Sleeveless Petite Swing Chiffon Dress Inspired by DressHead x Nico Omer

October 25th, 2012 No comments

Sleeveless Petite Swing Chiffon Dress Inspired by DressHead x Nico Omer / Red Color / Sexy Pleated Detailing

OMG! Is what you will say when you look in the mirror when you are wearing this Nico Omer x dress head cheap swing chiffon dress. You will feel like a dance floor diva when you step out onto the floor and show off your figure wearing this . The red color works really well and you will look really sexy and feminine with it on. There are no sleeves on the chiffon dress so it adds great emphasis to the arm area and if you are a light skinned lady then the color will work wonders with your complexion. The rounded neckline is perfect and it is also very modest so you will not have to worry about having to show off too much skin either. The skirt section is designed to add attention to your legs, so it is time to prepare yourself for wearing summer chiffon dresses and head on down to the gym, making sure that you stand out and all eyes are on you! Petite pieces are hard to find and you will not have any trouble wearing a decent dress with this beautiful number.

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Apakah Anda Sudah Mulai Khawatir?

October 23rd, 2012 No comments

“Truth hurts.  Maybe not as much as jumping on a bicycle with a seat missing, but it hurts.”

-Naked Gun

“There is nothing wrong with being scared; it is what you do when you are scared that is essentially important.”

-The Wizard

Saya tidak membuat laporan ini untuk menakuti Anda. Sama sekali ini tidak bertujuan untuk itu. Namun saya merasa harus menunjukkan tanda-tanda peringatan yang saat ini mengindikasikan bahwa bursa-bursa saham bisa berada atau dekat di puncak penting dari kenaikan jangka panjang mereka. Itu sebabnya saya tidak akan pernah bosan mengatakan investor untuk berhati-hati dan tidak mengejar kenaikan bursa saat ini.

Memang indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average, yang adalah indeks saham yang paling banyak diamati pelaku pasar dunia, bisa saja naik 5% hingga 10% lebih jauh dari levelnya saat ini, namun pertanyaanya apakah nilai tersebut sebanding dengan resiko yang mungkin akan diperoleh. Secara pribadi saya pikir, dan mungkin Anda sudah tahu, bahwa bukan itu pokok persoalannya.

Menurut pandangan saya, short-term trading dapat dilakukan hingga setidaknya pada akhir tahun namun investor sebaiknya harus sedikit bersabar untuk membeli saham di harga bargain-nya. Mungkin baru tahun depan atau 2014 ada kesempatan untuk membeli saham dan menahannya untuk jangka panjang, namun tidak ada tahu secara pasti, kan? Oleh karena itu mari ikuti pergerakan bursa secara hari per hari dan mengambil keuntungan dari peluang yang diberikan.

Hari ini saya akan mempersembahkan kepada Anda 2 artikel luar biasa dari Christopher Rowe, yang membuat Technical Analysis Millionaire dan sekaligus co-founder dari Tycoon Publishing.  Yang pertama ditulis pada 25 September yang berjudul Beware: Market is Near a TOP:

“You don’t need to exit bullish positions yet.  You CERTAINLY don’t need to be bearish here.  But there’s one incredibly reliable indicator that says we are approaching dangerous territory.

This indicator easily called:

  • the 2011 tops (before the “fiscal cliff/U.S. downgrade mini-crash”)
  • the 2010 tops (February and April before the “flash crash”)
  • both 2007 tops (July and October – all time stock market highs)
  • the 2000 top (which is actually the inflation adjusted all time high)

What’s best about the indicator is that it gives us a heads up LONG before we need to act.  Sometimes it’s a couple of months before the stock market turns down, and sometimes it’s weeks before it turns down.

But the point is, today the indicator is approaching market top territory.

Every week Investors Intelligence has reviewed the sentiment of between 100 – 200 newsletters (depending on what year it was).

When over 55% said they were bullish, we knew the bullish trade was what we, on Wall Street, used to call a “crowded trade”.   It’s a contrary indication.

When too many investors are bullish, they have usually already put in whatever money that they have to put in the market.  That means less money to buy from future sellers (which means prices need to adjust lower before new buyers come in).  It also means those who like to take bearish bets (short-sellers) usually have plenty of ammunition (cash) to start initiating BEARISH positions by short-selling stocks.

Also, newsletter writers are very much like individual investors, in that they become very excited bulls near market tops and overly negative near bottoms.  Most newsletter writers have little experience managing real money, and even those who have would fall into the mutual fund category (90% of them can’t beat the S&P 500).

When over 60% of those polled said they were bullish, that was an EXTREMELY contrary indication that we were almost certainly very close to or at a top.  This rarely happens, but it happened twice in 1999, once in 2001 — before the market lost another 43% — in mid 2003, early 2004, early and late 2005 and late 2006 (see red arrows).

The very last time we saw over 60% bullish was at the October 2007 all-time high.  You can see that below.  The above chart goes to 2007 and the chart below picks up where that let off (overlapping 2007 a bit).

The chart above has red lines comparing the stock market prices to the “over 60%” bullish sentiment.  But the chart below shows black lines any time the reading moved over 50%.

The horizontal green and blue shaded areas show 50% – 55% (green) and 55% – 60% (blue).  You’ll notice today (2 charts down) we are at 54.2% — only 0.8% below the danger territory of 55%!

Also notice in the above chart there’s a blue squiggly line showing the percentage of polled newsletter writers that are bearish.  I circled in green when fewer than 20% were bearish, which is also dangerous.  Notice around those times that there’s usually a large disparity between those that are bullish and those that are bearish.

When the difference between those that are bullish and those that are bearish is large, it’s dangerous.

For example:  If 55% of those polled are bullish and 25% are bearish, that’s a 30 percentage point difference between the bulls and bears.

I’ll extend the chart from above so you can see where we are today…

A larger than 30 percentage point difference is considered dangerous territory.  More than a 40 percentage point difference is considered very dangerous territory.  As you can see above, today the blue line shows bears near 25% and bulls near 55%, so there’s a 30 percentage point difference.

Again, we’re not in outrageously bullish territory just yet, but we’re on the dangerous line (and probably climbing).

The chart below shows the difference between bulls and bears.  The horizontal green bar is from 30 – 35 percentage points, and the pink bar shows 35 – 40 percentage points.  Study the chart please.

Final Thoughts

This is one of the many “leading indicators” out there, and it’s the only “leading indicator” I use.  It’s “leading” because it happens BEFORE prices.  In other words, the indicator is not based on something we know for sure — like price.  It’s based on mood/emotion/sentiment.

It can give us a signal a week ahead of time or a couple months ahead of time.  And if you want more than that, then you’re asking for too much.  I’m selling crystal balls on the side behind my building in the parking lot if you want to stop by.

THE SIGNAL:  The signal isn’t seen until we see the indicator change direction.  Once it turns around (down) it’s a “sell signal”.  100 different indicators will give 100 different “signals” at 100 different times.  Sentiment is among the very first signal to be seen.

Two main types of sentiment signals are given.  One is when the “difference between bulls & bears” stops climbing and has reversed down.  The other is when the % of bulls stops climbing and reverses down.

When you see that happen, it will mean it’s time to seriously consider taking bullish chips off the table — and this is more of an “intermediate-term” (weeks to months) to “long-term” (months to years) indicator.  So when you get the signal you’ll probably have PLENTY of time to act.  That’s why it’s one of my favorite indicators.”

Artikelnya yang kedua berjudul Market Crash After Election?, yang menjelaskan dengan sangat bagus apa yang biasanya terjadi setelah pemilu presiden dan hal realistis seperti apa yang kita bisa harapkan dari bursa di tahun depan. Silahkan baca informasi yang tak ternilai di bawah ini dengan seksama dan gunakan untuk menentukan posisi Anda masing-masing dengan tepat:

“After the election, will the stock market crash?

I doubt it will “crash” … but watch out for 2013.

It’s best to walk down “History Lane” to reveal what historically happens in times like this — once the president is re-elected.

First, remember the election cycle is a 4-year cycle.

1. POST-ELECTION YEAR
2. MID-TERM ELECTION YEAR
3. PRE-ELECTION YEAR
4. ELECTION YEAR

But according to a study in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, since 1833 the first two years (the two years AFTER the election) only generated 262.1% while the last two years (which lead up to the election) produced 718.5%.

Why?

The stock market trades based on future projections of the economy, and elections obviously have an enormous impact on the economy.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac says:

“Wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to start or occur in the first half of a term; prosperous times and bull markets, in the latter half.

“Some of its most significant patterns have been at the start of wars and bear markets mostly in the first and second years of presidential terms and the bullishness of third years — with not one losing third year of a presidential term since 1939.”

As we’ve seen over the last few years, the stock market has advanced significantly on Fed stimulus.  The problem is that the economy, not just the stock market, is supposed to be stimulated by the Fed.  Instead, corporations are sitting on a record amount of cash and are afraid to spend, which is typically a precursor to a coming recession.

Typically, pre-election years and election years are up years.

Typically, the administration in office keeps voters as happy as possible, even if it means sacrificing a bit of economic pain in the future (after reelection).  They increase benefits and get federal spending and disposable income up while keeping interest rates and inflation down.

But, as Stock Trader’s Almanac points out:

“Practically all bear markets began and ended in the two years after presidential elections.”

Bull markets usually last 3-4 years, while bear markets usually last 1-2 years.

Stock Trader’s Almanac continues: “Bottoms often occurred in the air of crisis: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, tight money in 1966, Cambodia in 1970, Watergate and Nixon’s resignation in 1974, and the threat of international monetary collapse in 1982.”

Understanding that bear markets seem to show up during the two post-election years is important when you’re in a stock market that’s breaking highs while in an election year.

Perhaps even more concerning is knowing that major military involvements occurred during midterm years.

*  World War I
*  World War II
*  Korea
*  Vietnam
*  Kuwait
*  Iraq
As I mentioned over the last couple of weeks, we are likely near a long-term stock market peak.  Will we see that peak in the months after the election?  It’s hard to say.  But, typically, the last part of October through the end of January are strong months.  The market has sold off in February – March in recent years, and when the market has been able to continue higher, it’s been topping out around April.

The market has been manipulated higher for years, but since December 2011, markets have been moving higher on very light volume.  That’s a clear sign of price manipulation as opposed to real demand.

The chart below shows (on the bottom right) that low volume.  I also drew a green horizontal line across that volume range and I extended the line to the left so you can compare historic volume to that of the last 10 months.

Then, I drew vertical red rectangles to help you compare times when volume fell short of the horizontal green line, both before and after December 2011.  Notice, prior to December 2011, how that light volume near highs was followed by sharp sell-offs.  Now notice how, with market prices much, much higher, we are seeing very low volume.

I can’t give you a prediction of exactly when the peak will appear.  But while demand appears to still in control of the stock market, I can tell you that history certainly suggests that we are close to a long-term market top.

What Do the Charts Say?

Yang pertama merupakan grafik luar biasa dari Tarquin Coe, seorang Senior Technical Analyst pada Investors Intelligence yang sekaligus anggota the Society of Technical Analysts, dengan sebuah pola reversal pada indeks S&P 500:

“The Fed announced its next phase of quantitative easing on the 14th September.  In the Coe Report, which was 180% net long that day, we analyzed the market’s reaction:

“The S&P 500 has blasted through the May 2008 high as well as a trend line drawn between the peaks of May 2011 and April 2012.  This morning the index was at its highest level since December 2007.  The resistance breaks are highly bullish but coupled to the very positive news this week, the present run is beginning to look too good to be true.”

From that point we acted fast to cash profits and unwind the net long position (portfolio now stands net short).

In that Coe Report on 14th September we also highlighted a potential rising wedge on the S&P 500.  It’s a monster of a pattern and if it plays out the index could recoil all the way back to 1100!  The pattern is yet to confirm but it is a dark cloud lingering on the horizon.”

Selanjutnya adalah Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang menyarankan agar melupakan angka keramat 666 karena angka angka keramat untuk indeks S&P 500 adalah 808.  Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya mengenai angka tersebut dan kaitannya dengan S&P 500:

“Presented with little comment, except to say – it seems, as Boaz at EminiAddict points out, that the S&P 500 likes to travel around 808 points from swing low to swing high. Extending the analog suggests a drop to 565 on the S&P 500 by mid-2014.

and using EminiAddict’s channel projection… suggests a 565 swing low to come…”

(h/t @eminiaddict)

Yang tak kalah penting, berikut adalah 2 grafik bagus dari penulis favorit saya, Robert R. Prechter, Jr., yang setiap bulan sejak tahun 1979 telah membuat laporan finansial untuk The Elliott Wave Theorist, dan sekaligus sebagai pendiri Elliott Wave International dan New Classics Library.

Prechter juga telah duduk dalam dewan Market Technicians Association selama 9 tahun, dan pernah menjabat menjadi presiden asosiasi tersebut pada periode 1990-1991.  Beberapa tahun belakangan ini Prechter mengembangkan studi socionomics, sebuah teori mengenai tingkah sosial manusia.

Dalam laporan Global Market Perspective terakhir, tertanggal 5 Oktober 2012, ada Elliott Wave Analysis luar biasa pada indeks Dow Jones serta ilustrasi Dow Theory yang menarik dalam prakteknya:

“Contrary to our expectations, Primary Wave 2  from March 2009 continues to subdivide, giving rise to a new recovery high in both the DJIA and S&P 500.  The rally from the Dow’s June 4 low at 12,035.10 is wave C of (Y), as shown on the chart.  This push has run into a formidable hurdle in the form of the aforementioned Supercycle-degree trend line.  The Dow has poked slightly above the line, just as it did in March-May of this year before the index declined to the June low.  The trend line crosses 13,479-13,522 on a weekly basis during the remainder of this month, and it remains powerful resistance.

The rally from March 2009 also may be labeled as Cycle wave b, as shown in Figure 2 of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist.  The implication of the two wave interpretations is essentially the same: A major bear market remains intact and should draw the Dow lower by thousands of points before it concludes, most likely in 2016, per our time forecasting models (see February issue of EWT).

The Dow Industrial Average’s push above its May high was not accompanied by a similar move in the Dow Transportation Average, which remains below both its 5368.90 closing high on February 3, 2012 and its 5618.30 all-time high on July 7, 2011 (see chart).

While the Industrials are up about 10% year-to-date, the Transports are down 2.5% over the same period.  The relentless diverging behavior between the two indexes strengthens the bearish Dow Theory non-confirmation that GMP discussed earlier this year.  While previous Dow Theory signals got positive coverage and failed, this time it’s different.  As the blue-chip indexes have rallied and optimism has concurrently increased, the venerable Dow Theory, which has been around for more than a century, is being disparaged.  “Broken Dow Theory,” says one financial news headline.  “Transportation Average Not the Bellwether Presumed,” announces another.  As we noted with respect to the Dow Industrials earlier this year, optimism typically produces this type of dismissal near the end of an uptrend; its occurrence usually acts to confirm the potency of the signal.”

Sebelumnya saya minta maaf jika laporan ini terlalu panjang karena saya merasa ini harus saya sampaikan dan ini merupakan laporan terakhir dari saya untuk pekan ini.

Semoga saya bisa menulis kembali seperti biasa pada hari Senin pekan depan.  Untuk sementara ini tetaplah membuat investasi Anda aman dan persiapkan diri Anda untuk tahun 2013, yang bisa saja menjadi tantangan!

Dibuat Tanggal 23 Oktober 2012

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Kesia-siaan QE

October 23rd, 2012 No comments

“The Fed has already said that if the economy needs it (QE), it’s going to get it.  And the economy is addicted to it, I mean this economy needs QE the way a heroin addict needs another fix.”

-Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital

“Money-printing is the only solution left for Central Banks and in reality without fundamental changes in the way Europe and the US is run, the best money-printing can do is keep the dying alive a bit longer.”

-Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs

Memang dalam beberapa pekan terakhir ini saya banyak mengabiskan waktu untuk fokus pada kebijakan moneter the Fed AS, namun menurut saya akan bermanfaat karena progam quantitative easing (QE) bank sentral AS yang seolah tanpa akhir dan tanpa batas telah mendorong ekspektasi investor demikian besar dan nanti pada akhir dapat menimbulkan kekecewaan yang besar.

QE mungkin pada akhirnya dapat menjadi kontraproduktif dan memiliki banyak konsekuensi yang tidak diinginkan, yang dapat lebih buruk dari yang dibayangkan oleh sebagian besar pelaku pasar. Itulah mengapa saya memutuskan untuk mencoba kembali membahas impotensi tindakan the Fed AS  tersebut dan dampak (buruk)-nya pada laporan hari ini.

Artikel yang pertama demikian jelas dan menjelaskan dengan singkat mengapa Anda dapat menggiring kuda ke air namun tidak dapat membuatnya minum.  Artikel tersebut dari Tyler Durden di www.zerohedge.com, yang memberikan judul cukup jelas: Destroying the Myths of Bernanke’s Brave New World of QEtc. Artikelnya tersebut singkat namun tajam dan tentunya masuk dalam kategori artikel yang HARUS DIBACA:

“Entering the final quarter of the year, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington (H&H) describe domestic and global economic conditions as extremely fragile. Across the globe, they note, countries are in outright recession, and in some instances where aggregate growth is holding above the zero line, manufacturing sectors are contracting. Of course, new government initiatives have been announced, particularly by central banks, in an attempt to counteract deteriorating economic conditions.

These latest programs in the U.S. and Europe are similar to previous efforts. While prices for risk assets have improved, governments have not been able to address underlying debt imbalances. Thus, nothing suggests that these latest actions do anything to change the extreme over-indebtedness of major global economies. To avoid recession in the U.S., the Federal Reserve embarked on open-ended quantitative easing (QE3). Importantly, in their view, the enactment of QE3 is a tacit admission by the Fed that earlier efforts failed, but this action will also fail to bring about stronger economic growth.

H&H go on to break down every branch that Bernanke rests his QE hat on from the Fed’s inability to create demand, to the de minimus wealth effect, and most importantly the numerous unintended consequences of the Fed’s actions.

Can all the trillions of dollars of reserves being added to the banking system move the economy forward enough to eventually create a higher level of aggregate spending? Our analysis of the aggregate demand curve and its determinants indicate they cannot. The unintended consequence of these Federal Reserve actions, however, is to actually slow economic activity.

The unintended consequences of QE3 could also serve to worsen and undermine global economic conditions already under considerable duress. When the Fed actions lead to higher food and fuel prices, the shock wave reverberates around the world, with many foreign economies being hit adversely. When prices of basic necessities rise, the greatest burden is on those with the lowest incomes since more of their budget is allocated to the basic necessities such as food and fuel. Thus, a jump in daily essentials has a more profound negative impact on living standards in economies with lower levels of real per capita income.

Three studies show that the impact of wealth on spending is miniscule—indeed, “nearly not observable.” How the Fed expects the U.S. to gain any economic traction from higher stock prices when rising commodity prices are curtailing real income and spending is puzzling.

The other element that is required for the Fed to shift the aggregate demand curve outward is the velocity or turnover of money over which they also have no control. During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low.

The consequence of the Fed’s lack of control over the money multiplier and velocity is apparent. The monetary base has surged 3.3 times in size since QE1. Nominal GDP, however, has grown only at an annual rate of 3%. This suggests they have not been able to shift the aggregate demand curve outward. Nor, with these constraints, will they be any more successful in shifting that curve under the present open-ended QE3.”

Gideon Gono, gubernur bank sentral Zimbabwe (Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe) yang menghancurkan nilai tukar dolar Zimbabwe akibat hyperinflation, juga mempunyai pendapat yang sangat menarik mengenai hubungan antara QE3 dan kebijakan yang diikutinya pada dekade lalu, dalam statement moneter semesteran 2012 RBZ.  Berikut adalah beberapa paragraph yang terpenting – melalui Chris Becker dari Mises SA – sang “ahli penghancur mata uang” tersebut menulis:

“2.14 Within this context, the Government of Zimbabwe failed to meet fiscal obligations from budgetary allocations which were severely eroded by rising inflation. As such, the financing of recurrent and capital expenditures presented serious challenges to Government.

2.15 These negative developments threatened to bring the country’s social service delivery system and the economy at large to a complete halt, thereby further impoverishing the Zimbabwean people.

2.16 It is against this background that Government stepped in to save the situation through various interventions by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.

2.17 These interventions which were exactly in the mould of bailout packages and quantitative easing measures currently instituted in the US and the EU were geared at evoking a positive supply response and arrest further economic decline.

But even still,

2.20 Despite numerous intervention measures undertaken by Government through the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, economic activity continued to decline progressively with inflation peaking at 231 million percent by July 2008. Other challenges that affected the economy include the following:

  • Frequent power outages;
  • Cash shortages;
  • Acute foreign currency shortages;
  • Skills flight;
  • Vibrant parallel market for goods and foreign exchange;
  • Erratic fuel supplies;
  • Endemic speculative and rent seeking behavior; and
  • Rapid rise in production costs.

2.21 In addition to this compendium of challenges, the value of the local currency declined precipitously as speculative activities intensified. Against this background, transactions were increasingly undertaken in foreign currencies which were more stable and predictable.”

Jadi meskipun Ben Bernanke dan Mario Draghi maupun pemimpin bank sentral dunia manapun berusaha meyakinkan Anda bahwa yang mereka lakukan berbeda dengan Gideon Gono, maka Anda benar-benar harus mendengarkan Gideon Gono lebih serius, yang pada dasarnya mengakui bahwa strategi pencetakan uang tidak akan bisa ‘merangsang’ pertumbuhan, melainkan hanya resiko high-inflation serta hyperinflation.

Artikel terakhir yang dapat menjadi sedikit kontroversi untuk sebagian dari Anda, mencoba menjawab pertanyaan berikut: Has the Next Round of the Great Crisis Begun? The Chief Market Strategist dari Phoenix Capital Management, Mr. Graham Summers, adalah penulisnya dan dia langsung menjelaskan bagaimana stimulus yang memicu rally kemungkinan akan berakhir:

“For over two years now, I’ve been warning that
the 2008 Crash was just a warm up and that the
REAL Crisis would occur when the stock market
realized that the Central Banks, lead by the US
Federal  Reserve could NOT actually hold the
financial system together.

Well, the Crisis I’ve been warning about is here.

Below is the chart of the S&P 500 since the day
QE 3 was announced. As you can see, stocks are
DOWN.

Let that sink in for a moment… the US Federal
Reserve has announced an unlimited program
and stocks have FALLEN.

The same is true in Europe where the ECB
announced an unlimited bond buying and
Europe’s most troubled market: the Spanish
Ibex has FALLEN.

So… we’ve got both the Fed and the ECB, the
two most important Central Banks in the world
have announced unlimited money printing
programs and the markets are DOWN.

Now this doesn’t mean that the markets will
implode tomorrow or next week… but this is
a MAJOR change of events that indicates the
next round of the Great Crisis (the worse round)
is well on its way.

When it hits in full force, we’re going to
seeing major banks go under, market crashes,
food shortages, government shutdowns, and
SYSTEMIC FAILURE.

Yes, I believe that before this mess ends,
the financial system as a whole will have
collapsed. What’s coming is going to make
2008 look like a joke.

Many people will lose everything in this
mess. Yes, everything. The US is going
to be defaulting on its debt, paper currencies
around the world will fail. It’s going to be
a dark dark time.”

What Do the Charts (Polls) Say

Dalam Worse Off in a “Better Than” Economy, Eric Fry menulis komentar pencerahan pada The Daily Reckoning dengan sebuah grafik yang sangat jelas:

“As the nearby chart illustrates, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has more than tripled during the last four years. And yet, during that identical timeframe, the ISM Manufacturing Index has achieved zero net growth. Intriguingly, despite the Fed’s multi-trillion- dollar hyperactivity and market manipulations, US manufacturing activity is not performing any better than manufacturing activity in Europe and China. In fact, all three are tracking each other very closely.”

Kemudian the Federal Reserve Bank wilayah San Francisco berani menanyakan apa yang masyarakat pikirkan mengenai QE3, dan mereka merespon seolah the Fed tidak punya akal sehat. Berikut adalah pandangan orang-orang mengenai quantitative easing terakhir (QE3) disertai komentar Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com:

“The San Francisco Fed, best known for such cutting edge research as “Why Is Unemployment Duration So Long?” (turns out it was Bernanke’s fault), “US Household Deleveraging” which concluded incorrectly that “Going forward, it seems probable that many U.S. households will reduce their debt” (turns out completely wrong as consumer debt is now at a new all time record), and “This Time It Really Is Different” (turns out it wasn’t), asked a simple question on its FacePlant page: “What effect do you think QE3 will have on the U.S. economy?” The people have now responded in a fashion that leaves little to the imagination. Actually, one thing is left to the imagination, namely whether the name of the one person responding that the $85 billion in monthly flow in perpetuity associated with QE3 is “not big enough” begins with Paul and ends with Krugman. Aside from that, in typical SF Fed fashion, no surprises at all.”

From the San Fran Fed:

Terakhir adalah gambar lucu kembali dari William Banzai, yang memberikan peringatan terhadap kebijakan moneter yang inkonvensional dari “Captain” Ben Bernanke.

The USS Keynes is on route, With missiles and planes prepped to shoot, We’ll make you feel great, With the debt we create, While the wealth of your nation we loot.

-The Limerick King

Dibuat Tanggal 22 Oktober 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Para Investor Emas Perlu Bersabar (Bagian 3)

October 17th, 2012 1 comment

“We can only hope for the best.  At the same time, it is imperative to switch out of paper-based assets into real assets such as gold, silver and well-located real estate. Along the way, various currencies will become the safe haven of the day, but none will survive what lies ahead.  We are living in an Entitlement Bubble along the lines of the Dutch Tulip Bubble in the 1600s.  No amount of printing or economic growth can prevent our destiny of currency destruction and entitlement collapse.”

-Robert Fitzwilson, founder of The Portola Group

Saat orang-orang membicarakan target harga emas yang mungkin dicapai, maka senantiasa membangkitkan dengan cepat imajinasi mereka yang bullish terhadapnya. Oleh karenanya saya pikir alangkah baiknya melihat sejumlah target dalam bagian ketiga tulisan tentang emas ini.

Pandangan pertama berasal dari sudut pandang fundamental oleh Scott Guggenheim dari Partners of Minerd, yang yakin bahwa emas masih undervalue di harganya saat ini. Berikut adalah beberapa paragraf dari artikelnya tentang emas yang masih terkait dengan Bretton Woods:

Investment Implications: A Green Light for Gold

“Gold was an important component of the Bretton Woods system. As a monetary anchor, it provided stability for the dollar as a global reserve currency. With the demise of gold convertibility under Bretton Woods, global price stability began to unravel. After being depegged from its official price of $35 per ounce in 1971, gold rose by more than 2,000% over the next 10 years. Investors migrate to gold when currencies no longer function as good stores of value.

The U.S. gold coverage ratio, which measures the amount of gold on deposit at the Federal Reserve against the total money supply, is currently at an all-time low of 17%. This ratio tends to move dramatically and falls during periods of disinflation or relative price stability. The historical average for the gold coverage ratio is roughly 40%, meaning that the current price of gold would have to more than double to reach the average. The gold coverage ratio has risen above 100% twice during the twentieth century. Were this to happen today, the value of an ounce of gold would exceed $12,000.

The possibility of an upward revaluation of the official price of gold should not be minimized. Although I do not anticipate or advocate a return to the gold standard, an upward revaluation of gold by one of more central banks is possible. If the Federal Reserve, for instance, announced that it stood ready to purchase gold at $10,000 per ounce, the gold-coverage ratio of the dollar would return to 75%, roughly where it stood at the beginning of Bretton Woods. This could restore confidence in the value of the dollar if its ultimate role as a reserve currency were to be challenged.

Gold’s industrial use only represents .03% of global GDP. Therefore, its upward revaluation would not cause a significant economic shock associated with rising input prices. Likewise, a higher price would probably not affect the behavior of the world’s largest holders, which are central banks and sovereign wealth funds.

Prescient investors should consider making allocations to gold and other precious metals as a hedge against the erosion of purchasing power of the dollar as well as for the potential upside from positive market price appreciation or a possible intervention at the policy level. Despite the sizable appreciation in gold prices in the last decade, gold is far from overvalued. This makes gold a low-risk investment and leads me to believe that gold will never again trade below $1,600 an ounce.”

Berikutnya prediksi dari fund manager di BlackRock, Evy Hambro, yang berinvestasi pada logam mulia serta ekuitas emas, yang mengatakan bahwa harga emas akan melonjak ke rekor tertingginya di $2400 pada musim panas tahun depan, didorong oleh QE3 AS. Pada QE1 di bulan Februari 2009 harga emas melonjak cepat dari level $900/troy ounce dan sampai saat ini koreksinya belum mencapai kembali ke level tersebut.

Dalam laporannya mengenai emas di awal bulan ini, dia mengatakan: “The gold chart has turned decidedly bullish with the 50-day moving average rising above the 200-day moving average.  The last time this happened was in February 2009, which interestingly was shortly after the implementation of QE1.  Then, gold was $900/oz and never looked back.  Should we witness a similar rally, prices would be taken to $2,400/oz by midsummer next year.”

Akhirnya saat harga emas hampir menyentuh level $2000/troy ounce, banyak analis mengatakan bahwa logam mulia mengalami bubble, akan segera anjlok serta tidak akan pernah menyentuh kembali level rekornya tersebut. Pertanyaannya adalah, ‘Bagaimana pengertian Anda mengenai istilah bubble, dan bagaimana kita mengetahui bahwa harga emas sudah mencapai puncaknya?’

Nah, Jordan Roy Byrne atau sering dipanggil dengan the Trendsman”, pemilik Trendsman Research dan anggota afiliasi dari Market Technicians Association (MTA), mencoba untuk menjawab hal ini dalam sebuah artikel berjudul Intermarket Explanation for Coming Gold Bubble:

“As we travel to Toronto for the Cambridge House conference, we thought we’d share a few points from our upcoming presentation titled “The Setup for a Gold Bubble.” There are many different ways we can analyze this. By that we mean fundamental triggers, historical ratios, valuations and potential money flows, etcetera can explain the setup for and why this bull market will become a bubble. Today, we focus on intermarket analysis, which is one of our favorite subsets of technical analysis.

For a bull market to become a bubble, it needs to attract excess money flows from other asset classes. In other words, during a bubble, money flows from various asset classes into a single one. Prior to the bubble the market must be an under-owned asset class with room to absorb the massive flows. This chart, from Pierre Lassonde’s recent presentation shows Gold’s share of global asset allocations. It currently is below 3%, which is extremely low in comparison to the 1980 figure of 14% and considering that the bull market is in its 13th year.

Moreover, and this a point others have made, Gold’s increasing share as part of the global financial pie is more a result of an increase in Gold’s value than an increase in actual ownership. Back in 1999-2001, Gold’s share was less than 0.5%. Now it is six or seven times higher. Yet, Gold’s value is roughly six times higher!

While some of the newly created money and debt will find its way into Gold, the biggest inflows into Gold will come from other markets and particularly bonds. The bond market, which dwarfs the equity and commodities markets, is by far the biggest market in the world. In recent years and in response to the global economic malaise the average investor and average institution has shifted funds out of equities and into bonds. Inflows into bond funds have been gargantuan while inflows into equity funds have been negative. Thus, in an intermarket sense, the trigger for the coming bubble in Gold will be the shift of funds out of bonds and into Gold and the like.

One way to monitor this is to graph Gold against bonds. Below we show Gold against bonds (bottom) and Silver against bonds (top). Both charts are at an interesting juncture. The next breakout in both charts would surpass the 1980 peak and result in all time highs. Gold and Silver have outperformed bonds for a number of years but the outperformance would accelerate upon breakout in these charts.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Tarquin Coe, yang menjabat sebagai Senior Technical Analyst pada Investors Intelligence bertanya sendiri apakah emas akan turun dari puncaknya dalam surat kabar bulanan gratis Investors Intelligence edisi Oktober:

“Is the rally over for gold?

On 15 October, the precious metal slumped through the $1,750 level for the first time since early September.  This downside breakout followed shortly after a failed upside breakout at $1,800 (see the chart below).

Technically, gold’s daily chart certainly looks bearish and short-term toppy.

However, I am uncertain how far the downtrend will persist, simply because there is support at the 50-day moving average, followed by another at $1,670, where the 150-day moving average is currently situated.  If that goes, there is another support at $1,600.

Therefore I would not short the metal from here, preferring to buy it on further setbacks after the weak hands are forced out.  The entry range for gold is at $1,700-$1,670; for silver $31.00-$30.00.

Juga dengan analis terkemuka dari Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick, yang baru saja merilis laporan perkembangan terkini mengenai pasar emas. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam laporan tersebut, dan – seperti biasa – disertai grafik yang sangat bagus:

“Gold saw three weeks of indecision just below the important double bottom neckline at $1,790.  These indecision weeks were followed by a down week last week suggesting short term losses now.  Weekly momentum is also stretched and crossing back down.

A correction down to $1,661-$1,669 could be the danger in the near term before renewed gains later.  This is where the 55 week moving average and 50% retracement of the last rally converge.  Short term support is at $1,736 and it should be noted that the 200 day moving average comes in at $1,660, i.e. it converges with the 55 week moving average so should provide good support if/when tested.”

Yang tak kalah penting adalah David Petch dari Treasure Chests yang juga melaporkan perkembangan kondisi technical pasar emas terkini, namun berdasarkan teori hitungan Elliott Wave serta Contracting Fibonacci Spiral (CFS).  Berikut adalah bagian terpenting dari laporannya tersebut:

“The short-term Elliott Wave count of gold is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. There was a parabolic arc put in place for gold between May and early September, which did not collapse…instead it corrected higher…this is an extremely bullish observation for higher gold prices going forward. Generally, parabolic arcs see complete retraces…when there is no retracement, the upward price extension is usually equivalent to the parabolic rise…this would put gold at $2500/ounce at a minimum before July 2013. As other charts have shown, expect further sideways price action over the course of the next 4-6 weeks before breaking higher. DO NOT TRY SHORTING PRECIOUS METALS OR THE STOCK MARKET. Some articles have appeared over the past few weeks attempting to short the broad stock market or precious metals…until tops have been put in based upon the Contracting Fibonacci Spiral (CFS) cycle the markets are in (Google for more information), shorting could be an expensive proposition. The environment we are in is operating under a CFS, which to my knowledge is the only working cycle to accurately describe what is happening at present…until the mentioned topping dates of the broads, HUI, XOI, commodities etc. are reached, do not attempt shorting…volatility is going to be significant.

The long-term Elliott Wave count of gold is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Based upon the present pattern, expect upside to last for anywhere from 6-8 months at a minimum before topping out somewhere between $2500-3000/ounce.”

Di akhir laporan ini, kembali saya ketengahkan sedikit lelucon supaya kita semua tetap tersenyum:

Senior management had collected a lot of operations data but did not know what to do with it.  They knew they needed a numbers person and decided to interview an accountant, an engineer and an economist.  During the interview they assessed their math skills.

First was the accountant.

Interview: What is 1 + 1?

Accountant: 1 + 1 = 2.

Interview: Are you sure?

Accountant: Absolutely.  1 + 1 equals 2 and only 2.

Next the engineer.

Interview: What is 1 + 1?

Engineer: 1 + 1 = 2.

Interview: Are you sure?

Engineer: Well, within acceptable tolerance levels yes, 1 + 1 is 2.

Last the economist.

Interview: What is 1 + 1?

The economist got up, closed the door, drew the blinds, leaned across the table and replied “What do you want it to equal?”

Dibuat Tanggal 17 Oktober 2012

Categories: Emas Tags: