Archive for November, 2012

Kapan Hutang Pemerintah yang Menggunung akan Meletus? (Bagian 2)

November 27th, 2012 No comments

“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.  People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”

-Cicero – 55 BC

“We’ve never been here before.  It has been the largest peacetime accumulation of debt in history.  In the last decade, global debt  balances – government, household and corporate – have gone from $80 trillion to $200 trillion.  That’s an 11 percent growth rate, far outstripping the 1.2 percent population growth and real gross domestic product growth of 3.8 percent.  Meanwhile, central bank balance sheets have expanded 16 percent.

-Kyle Bass, founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital

Kali ini saya memiliki 2 laporan yang HARUS DIBACA untuk Anda!  Yang pertama dari Bill Bonner, seorang pendiri sekaligus presiden Agora Publishing, serta seorang the principal author kolom finansial di sebuah harian The Daily Reckoning.

Dia baru-baru ini menulis sebuah esai yang mengagumkan di harian The Daily Reckoning mengenai apa yang terjadi pada perekonomian, korporasi dan/atau masyarakat secara keseluruhan ketika memiliki banyak hutang. Judul esainya adalah What the Road to Hell is Paved With…, yang berisi sebagai berikut:

“Improving the world costs money. When you have it, your efforts either bear fruit. Or they don’t. But when you don’t have it, when you have to change the world on credit, then what?

John Maynard Keynes revolutionized the economics profession in the early 20th century. It was he more than anyone who changed it from a being a refuge for observers and willowy philosophers into a hard-charging phalanx for men of action. But Keynes’ big insight, like all the useful insights of economics, was based on a story with a moral.

In the Book of Genesis, Pharaoh had a dream. In it, he was standing by the river. Out came 7 fat cattle. Then, 7 lean cattle came up out of the river and ate the fat cattle. A similar dream involved ears of corn, with the good ones devoured by the thin ears.

Pharaoh was troubled. His dream interpreters were stumped. So, they sent for the Hebrew man who was said to be good at this sort of thing — Joseph. Pharaoh described what had happened in his dreams. Without missing a beat, Joseph told him what they meant. The 7 fat cattle and 7 fat ears of corn represented years of plenty with bountiful harvests. The 7 lean cattle and thin ears of corn represented years of famine. Joseph wasn’t asked his opinion, but he gave his advice anyway: Pharaoh should put into place an activist, counter-cyclical economic policy. He should tax 20% of the output during the fat years and then he would be ready with some grain to sell when the famine came. Genesis reports what happened next:

…the seven years of plenty ended and famine struck, and when Egypt was famished, Joseph opened the storehouses, and sold food to the Egyptians. People from all countries came to Egypt to buy grain, because the famine struck all the earth.

You’d think private investors would do the work more efficiently, for profit, buying grain at low prices when crops were busting out of their storerooms and selling them at high prices when crops failed. But there is no need to argue with the Biblical account. Besides, it sounds all too likely.

Keynes put forward the simple idea that modern governments should act like Pharaoh. They should run counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies. In the fat years, they should store up surpluses. In the lean years, they should open the doors of the granaries so that people might eat. This seems sensible enough, until you realize that modern governments do not run surpluses. Only deficits.

The US hasn’t run a real surplus (not including Social Security payments) since 1969. That’s 43 years without closing the granary doors. Not surprisingly, you can look in there. You won’t find anything. Except I.O.Us. Instead of actually storing up grain in the fat years, the feds ate every bit of it. And more. Now, come the years of famine, they have no grain to give out.

That might be the end of the story. But it’s not. Economists insist that the feds can follow a pharaonic policy even with their bins empty. How? By borrowing money…and in the extreme…printing it. You are probably getting ahead of me here, dear reader. You are wondering whether that would have worked in Ancient Egypt. Could Pharaoh have saved the expense of stocking up grain, and simply borrowed it when he needed it?

Well, there’s only so much grain available. Borrowing from those who still have some doesn’t help. At best, it just moves it around. At worst, it takes the ‘seed’ grain needed for the next year’s planting. Without it, the next year’s harvest will be smaller, leaving even more people hungry.

(Nor could Pharaoh solve the hunger issue by handing out sawdust and pretending that it was whole wheat bread. It had to be digestible. This is the problem with printing press money too. Like Pharaoh’s sawdust-based bread…paper money is a wood product. It’s a kind of money that literally does grow on trees; it is worthless. Sawdust has no nutritive content in it; paper money has no real resources behind it.)

But economists have developed elaborate theories and mathematical proofs that allow them to believe what everyone knows is not so. The government may be deeply in debt already, but it can go further into debt during the lean years, say the ‘neo-Keynesian’ economists, in order to offset the contraction in the private sector. And central banks can make it easier for consumers to borrow, too. The fiscal and the monetary stimuli provide much needed ‘demand’ for an economy in a downturn.

It almost sounds plausible. And the trick worked well enough, from the close of WWII until 2007. Each downturn in the economy was met with more and easier credit, leading people to borrow more and more money. The point of declining marginal utility of debt had been reached many years before. In the late ’40s and ’50s, it only took an addition of about $1.40 in extra credit to produce an extra dollar in GDP. By the mid-’90s, it took $3 of credit for every dollar of additional output. Ten years later, the amount of additional credit to produce a dollar’s worth of extra output reached over $5, and then it went off the charts. By 2007, the downside had come. Output was beginning to fall off so that additional inputs of credit — no matter how great — actually produced zero additional output.

The downside of the credit cycle is so obvious it hardly seems worth describing it. It works pretty much as you would expect. I wouldn’t bother discussing it, except that modern economists have persuaded many of the world’s smartest people — and themselves — that it isn’t so.

Debt has become a major burden in the economies of the US, Europe and Japan. It blocks them from saving, spending, investing and creating new wealth. Why? Because the resources that might have been put to work building the future have already been claimed by the past. Debt was contracted. Now, it must be paid. It is as if Pharaoh had already borrowed the needed grain…as if the grain needed to plant for next year had already been eaten. Once consumed, it cannot be borrowed. It is gone.

When you owe money on your credit card, it is often for things that no longer even exist. Hamburgers eaten a month ago. Clothes that went out of style last summer. Ski vacations in last winter’s snow. With this burden of the past on your shoulders, you find it harder to move into the future. Your footsteps drag; your life shrinks. You are forced to use your time tomorrow to make up the time you borrowed yesterday.

If you owe an amount equal to your annual revenue, for example, at an interest rate of 5%, you will have to devote more than one working day in 20 just to pay the interest on the debt. I say “more than” because you have to pay the interest with post-tax money. At a tax rate of 25% (just to keep the math easy) you have to work about one day every two weeks to stay even.

Readers may consider the magnitude of the current problem by realizing that, according to the US Federal Reserve, total debt in the US is now about 353% of GDP. At 5% interest, forgetting taxes, the debtor must work nearly 1 day per week just to pay for past consumption.

“Too much” comes readily to the lips when we describe someone who has consumed too many hamburgers or taken too many vacations, on credit. He may even be able to borrow more…and eat more hamburgers. But it is rarely a good idea. At a certain point, the borrowing does more harm than good. That’s when he’s reached the downside.

The marginal utility of debt is fairly high when you are using it to build a business or a bridge. But it declines sharply as soon as you begin to use it for everyday spending. An investment brings forth a revenue stream — a result that justifies and pays for the investment. With a little luck, the investor recovers enough money to pay back the loan — with interest — and ends up with a little bit extra. That little bit extra is real ‘growth’ — new wealth that didn’t exist before.

But there is no revenue stream coming from Social Security payments…fighter jets…the latest fashions…or other consumer items. The money is spent. Used up. Consumed. It is no more. Though all of these things may be enjoyed…perhaps even for a long time…no stream of revenue bubbles up from this spring. The ground around it remains dry and barren.

Keep up this borrowing and spending at some point you will be unable to continue. The weight of the past will be too heavy. Your legs will buckle and your back will break.

“Too much” has a meaning that the engineers can’t duck or dodge. The machine can’t be adjusted or recalibrated to make it go away. “Too much” must be admitted and suffered. The suffering that comes to a market is known as a ‘correction.’ Sharp, dramatic corrections are called ‘crashes.’ In an economy, it is called a ‘slump’ or a ‘recession.’ Severe cases are called ‘depressions.’

They can be denied. They can be delayed. But they can’t be disappeared. “Too much” has consequences; the downside must have its day.”

Yang berikut adalah kutipan dari edisi Sovereign Man: Confidential yang dipublikasikan pada 15 Oktober lalu. Dalam tulisan yang berjudul Let’s Talk About Facts, Not Fear, Simon Black di blog SovereignMan menelusuri dunia dan melihat kembali pada sejarah untuk mengetahui apa yang terjadi saat  seluruh negara dan/atau kerajaan mengalami persoalan finansial:

“Let’s step away from the noise for a moment and look at the big picture. This isn’t about doom and gloom, or fear, but objective facts.

Undoubtedly, the Western hierarchy dominated by the United States is in a completely unsustainable situation. Across the West, national governments have obligations they simply cannot meet—both to their citizens and their creditors.

In the UK, national government borrowing is already 22% higher than at this same point last year, a record year for borrowing. Meanwhile, the UK’s budget deficit for August hit a record high.

In France, the new government of Francois Hollande passed a ‘historic’ and ‘austere’ budget that is still posting a deficit of 3% of GDP. That’s including a 75% tax on incomes exceeding one million Euros.

In Japan, the government is mulling legislation that will fund 40% of the budget with ‘deficit-financing’ bonds.

In the United States, the government recently hit $16 trillion in debt about six weeks ago, after reaching the $15 trillion mark last November. It took 200 years to accumulate the first trillion in debt and 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion.

Each of these countries has a debt level that exceeds 90% of GDP– the historic point of no return. More importantly, each of these countries also has to borrow money simply to pay interest on money they’ve already borrowed.

This is important because it makes the problems multiple. At the beginning of the 1780s, the French monarchy was spending around 30% of tax revenue to service its debt. Eight years later when the revolution began, they were spending 62%.

The next 26-years in France were filled with internal civil war, external war with Austria and Prussia, hyperinflation, crime, social unrest, and Robespierre’s genocidal dictatorship.

In the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire faced an even steeper financial decline. In just 11-years, the Ottoman central government went from spending 17% of its tax revenue on interest payments to spending over 52% of its tax revenue on interest payments. Then came default, in just eleven years.

In the US, debt service is also rising. According to the Government Accountability Office’s figures, the US government was spending 9% of revenue to service the debt in 2002. Throughout most of the last decade, in fact, the US government spent roughly 9% of its tax revenue on debt service.

But in 2009, the figure hit 9.75%, then 10.5% in 2010, then 11.5% in 2011. For the fiscal year that just closed on September 30, the Bureau of Public Debt reported cumulative interest expense of $375.8 billion on income of $2.45 trillion. This is a rate of 15.3%. See the trend?

But it’s not just debt burdens that are problematic. ‘Rich’ countries in the West are also rapidly debasing their currencies, spawning tomes of regulatory impediments, restricting the freedoms of their citizens, aggressively expanding the powers of the state, and engaging in absurd military folly from Libya to the South China Sea.

Once again, this is not the first time history has seen such conditions. In our own lifetimes, we’ve seen the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the tragi-comical hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, and the unraveling of Argentina’s millennial crisis. Plus we can study what happened when empires from the past collapsed.

The conditions are nearly identical. Is our civilization so different that we are immune to the consequences?

Probably not. And the cycle that has befallen so many great powers before us– decline, collapse, turmoil, and reset– will likely happen in our time too.

But it’s not the end of the world. Not by a long shot.  It’s a complete reshuffling of the deck. A brand new game with brand new rules. And the old way of doing things (like printing money backed by nothing) will be resigned to history’s waste bin.

One of the things that we see frequently in history is that this transition occurs gradually, then very rapidly.

Think about the Soviet Union, which you may recall. One day, they were the greatest threat to the planet. The next day, the wall came down. It happened so quickly. It’s like what Hemingway said about bankruptcy– it happens slowly at first, then all at once.

Unfortunately we don’t know where we are along this path. And we won’t know until we’re over the cliff on the way down. Everything will feel normal until then.

Argentina’s millennial crisis is a great example of this. Argentines woke up in December 2001 and everything still felt normal. Within a few weeks, they had defaulted on their debt, the currency collapsed, and people were out in the streets doing battle with the police.

But since we don’t know precisely when things may happen, it’s a sharp idea to take responsible action that makes sense no matter what, even if all of the world’s problems are miraculously solved. Things like:

- Owning gold and silver (and storing it abroad)

- Acquiring agricultural property overseas.

- Holding savings in a strong, stable foreign bank

- Looking at healthy economies for top quality investment and business opportunities

- Improving tax efficiency and asset protection with proper foreign structures

- Developing relationships with like-minded people

- Learning valuable skills

- Traveling a bit and exploring potential relocation options

- Increasing your digital privacy

- Considering dual residency and nationality options

All of these steps make sense no matter what happens. Yet, should the thesis hold, and we indeed find ourselves on the precipice, then you and your family will be in the best possible position. And that too is a fact.”

(Catatan dari saya: hampir seluruh saran/rekomendasi yang disebut di atas hanya dapat dilakukan oleh para pembaca/investor di belahan Barat, tidak untuk orang Indonesia yang fiskalnya saat ini sedang berada dalam posisi terbaik di dunia. Namun demikian, saya tetap merekomendasikan investor di Indonesia untuk mengisi 5-10% portofolio mereka dengan emas sebagai suatu kebijakan asuransi.)

What Do the Charts Say?

Semua sudah tahu bahwa pemerintah senang membuat proyeksi mengenai hutang, yang hampir seluruhnya didasari oleh asumsi optimis pertumbuhan GDP, total pendapatan dan pengeluaran. Namun faktanya sangat-sangat berbeda bahkan lebih buruk dari perkiraan.

Inilah yang akan coba dibuktikan oleh Tyler Durden dari dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Momentarily Stepping Back From The Trees To Show These Two Charts Of The Forest dengan 2 grafik yang cukup jelas dan sejumlah komentar singkat.

“Every time we get too bogged down by details, minutiae, nuances, footnotes, rumors, lies, or, at the very bottom of the bullshit pyramid, Eurocrat promises, and think that maybe, just maybe, there is a way to fix the mess we are in, we take a quick look at what is in store (most recently recapped by Deutsche Bank in the form of the following two charts) and quickly realize that all concerns about a happy ending have been for nothing.

Self-explanatory chart #1:

And self-explanatory chart #2:

Dalam laporan riset yang berjudul Stimulus Tactic of Increasing Government Debt to Increase GDP Broken and Unsustainable, Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research di TrimTabs mencoba menjawab pertanyaan How Long before Massive Government Debt Buildup Triggers Another Financial Shock?

Here are some parts of that report, including an excellent chart that shows the increase in US debt per $1.00 increase in GDP:

“In Q1 2012, GDP rose $142 billion, while debt rose $359 billion.  In other words, it took nearly $2.50 in debt to generate $1.00 in GDP.  We wanted to understand how this relationship compared to those that prevailed in previous decades.  The graph below shows our findings.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis – and Treasury Department –
Note:  The negative value in 2008 was due to negative GDP growth.

From 1975 to 1980, each $1 increase in GDP was accompanied by an increase in debt of between 20 and 47 cents.  In other words, the increase in GDP was two to five times the increase in debt.

From 1981 to 2007, the amount of debt required to produce $1 of GDP growth crept higher, and it ranged from a low of 3 cents in 2000 to a high of $2.25 in 1991.  In only eight of those years did it take more than $1 of debt to produce $1 of GDP growth—1982, 1986, 1990 to 1993, 2002, and 2003.  On average, it took 79 cents of debt to produce $1 of GDP growth.  In other words, the increase in GDP was nearly 1.3 times the increase in debt.

Along came the Great Recession.  Since 2009, the traditional relationship between debt and GDP growth has been turned upside down.  Each $1 increase in GDP has been accompanied by, on average, a $2.50 increase in debt.  Before the recession, an increase in debt generally generated a greater increase in GDP, but now it takes an enormous increase in debt to eke out a small increase in GDP.  At some point, the amount of debt required to generate even modest GDP growth will suffocate the economy and trigger another financial shock.

Seperti biasa di akhir laporan saya akan mengetengahkan sejumlah gambar lucu yang memperlihatkan situasi krisis hutang dari sisi humor:

Source: Robert Ariail,, July 7, 2011.

Dibuat Tanggal 27 November 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Kapan Hutang Pemerintah yang Menggunung akan Meletus? (Bagian 1)

November 27th, 2012 No comments

“Dealing with a banking crisis was difficult enough, but at least there were public-sector balance sheets on to which the problems could be moved. Once you move into sovereign debt, there is no answer; there’s no backstop.”

-Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England

“How did you go bankrupt?”  “Two ways.  Gradually, then suddenly.”

-Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Sebelum saya membahas topik hari ini, mari kita lihat apa yang terjadi di bursa saham Jumat lalu. Setelah indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average berhasil ditutup di atas evel 13000 again, banyak orang yang langsung menyatakan bahwa koreksi sudah berakhir. Namun pertanyaannya sekarang adalah apakah memang sedang berada di tengah trend reversal untuk kenaikan lebih lanjut, atau hanya rebound dalam downtrend-nya.

Tyler Durden dari mencoba penjawab pertanyaan yang sama dalam laporannya yang terdiri dari 2 bagian terpisah yang seharusnya dapat menjelaskan hal-hal tersebut.  Mari baca tulisannya dengan seksama, amati grafik-grafiknya dan Anda akan mengetahui dengan sendirinya:

1) What A Difference A Year Makes

As we approached the debt-ceiling debacle last year, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth among talking heads and portfolio managers and indeed the latter actually started to put their money where their mouth was – i.e. they sold/reduced exposure to US equities. A year or so later and the fiscal cliff and debt-ceiling SNAFU is once again upon us but this time, while sentiment is just as negative, real speculative positioning is at multi-year record high longs. It would seem to us that all those holding out for a hero in Congress and some compromise to provide a liftathon in stocks are already all-in (as the two charts below indicate oh so clearly). One can only hope they are not disappointed as the ‘money on the sidelines’ appears to be more exposed than ever and unlike last year’s massive net short positioning, there is no more squeeze ammunition left for the next leg.

Last Fall’s debt-ceiling-inspired sell-off and massive short-biased position (lower pane) provided just the ammunition to squeeze a huge (central-bank-inspired) rally for the first quarter of the year and claim victory for the bulls from the jaws of defeat… this time the situation is very different…

and as the longer-term chart of relative positioning shows – speculative positioning is as long as it has ever been heading into this extreme binary uncertainty…

The last time we were this net long, the S&P 500 dropped over 20% in the next two months… and the S&P 500 has averaged a -3.3% performance over the following six-months from a 2-sigma net speculative long position such as this – and a 63% hit rate since record began.

It would appear that any sustained rally from here will need to come from fresh and excited money as opposed to the short-squeeze of last year.

We humbly suggest that the next mouth-breather that mentions markets are set for a huge rally if fiscal cliff resolution occurs OR opines of the money that is so desperate to chase into stocks when Boehner and Obama speak next – tell them to kindly look at these two charts and explain how traders have never been so net long stocks…

Surveys Do Not Matter! Real Money Positioning Matters!

Charts: Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg

2)  Dow 13,000 Regained On Lightest Volume Day Of The Year

Hope for a Greek deal (which solves what exactly?) and a better than expected German IFO are the excuses for today’s circa 1% spurt in stocks capping a 5-percent-plus jump off Friday’s over-short lows. The best 5-day run in four months for the S&P 500 occurred with the lowest average weekly volume of the year – and as we noted earlier, amid one of the biggest short-squeezes we have seen. Correlations across asset classes rose significantly but it seemed EURUSD (and Gold) was as responsible as anything for today’s magical carpet ride – especially the little dose of magic into the close. Treasuries trod water – completely ignoring equity’s excitement. Silver and Gold popped notably (playing catch up to USD and stocks), as did Oil, with the USD sliding (-1.25%) non-stop on EUR strength (+1.85% on the week!). Have no fear, retirement is back on – Dow 13,000 is back with us… (but it appears, for now, the squeeze-ability is over)

Low volume, check! Rampapalooza, check! Technical Level to pin it on, check! And in case you were wondering – unlike Weds/Thurs trade size – today’s average trade size was considerably larger (with some significant blocks going through into the close – pros fading the surge once again?)

Chart: Bloomberg

While the fiscal cliff may be frightening (if all tax increases and spending cuts are implemented of course, and that’s still a big if), the fight over the debt limit will really test market participants’ resolve.  I am personally more worried about the debt ceiling debate, which could well be paralyzing once more, just like in 2011.  And also don’t forget that this possibly will have implications for the US’s sovereign debt rating that may be downgraded again next year.

In “Treasury Quietly Warns: ‘Expect Debt Limit to Be Reached Near End of 2012’”, Terence P. Jeffrey recently wrote a short article for that briefly summarizes why we soon will have to go through the motions of some more heated discussions in Congress:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

“The U.S. Treasury quietly warned at the end of a statement issued last Wednesday that it expects the federal government to hit its legal debt limit before the end of this year–which means before the new Congress is seated–and that “extraordinary measures” will be needed before then to keep the government fully funded into the early part of 2013.

On Aug. 2, 2011, President Obama signed a deal he had negotiated with congressional leaders to increase the debt limit of the federal government by $2.4 trillion. But, now, after only 15 months, almost all of that additional borrowing authority has been exhausted.

Although Treasury revealed in its statement on Wednesday that it was likely to hit the debt limit by the end of the year, Treasury Secretary Geithner failed to respond to a letter that Senate Finance Ranking Member Orrin Hatch and Senate Budget Ranking Member Jeff Sessions sent to him on Oct. 15 demanding that he notify them by Nov. 1 what he believes to be the exact date Treasury will hit the debt limit and the date he expects to begin using “extraordinary measures” to avoid it.

“Treasury continues to expect the debt limit to be reached near the end of 2012,” says the tenth paragraph of the “Quarterly Refunding Statement” put out by Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Markets Matthew Rutherford.

“However, Treasury has the authority to take certain extraordinary measures to give Congress more time to act to ensure we are able to meet the legal obligations of the United States of America,” said the statement. “We continue to expect that these extraordinary measures would provide sufficient ‘headroom’ under the debt limit to allow the government to continue to meet its obligations until early in 2013.”

Prior to the release of this statement, Sen. Hatch and Sen. Sessions sent Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner a letter asking him specific questions about the approaching debt limit and the administration’s plans for dealing with it. Hatch’s and Sessions’s questions included these two: 1) “What is Treasury’s forecast of the date upon which Treasury will find it necessary to use extraordinary measures to manage to keep federal debt at or below the statutory debt limit?” 2) “What is Treasury’s forecast of the date upon which the U.S. government will reach the statutory debt limit given use and exhaustion of these extraordinary measures?”

The senators gave Geithner a “hard deadline” of Nov. 1 for providing an initial response to these questions. Julia Lawless, spokesperson for the Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee, confirmed that as of Nov. 6 the committee had received no response from the Treasury secretary.

As of Oct. 31, according to the Daily Treasury Statement (DTS), the portion of the federal debt subject to the legal limit was $16,222,235,000,000–just $171.765 billion below the $16,394,000,000 debt limit.

In October alone, according to the DTS, the debt subject to the limit increased by $195.214 billion.”

Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan managing partner Matterhorn Asset Management, pada 8 Oktober lalu telah mengatakan kepada King World News ( mengenai hutang global yang menggunung dan tidak dapat diatasi.  Saya selalu mendengar dengan seksama saat Egon mengeluarkan pendapatnya, dan oleh karena itu menurut saya tulisan di bawah ini yang merupakan hasil wawancana dengan Egon adalah HARUS DIBACA bagi yang ingin mengetahui akhir dari semua ini  (indikasinya: mungkin tidak seperti yang Anda pikirkan):


“US deficits are set to continue to rise, no matter who wins the election.  This means a great deal more money printing.  Right now the US has $40 billion per month of QE in the form of buying mortgage-backed securities, and with ‘Twist’ another $45 billion.  But you have to also add the $145 billion monthly budget deficit.”

Right now the US deficit is running at roughly $1.5 trillion per year.  So in total, the US is already printing $200 billion each month, and that will of course increase.

The US debt is up $10 trillion in ten years.  As revenues decline and expenditures increase, the pressures on the US economy will be enormous, and the deficit will increase substantially.

In a couple of years time, we will have $20 trillion, at least, of US debt….

$20 trillion of US debt, think about that for a moment.  US tax revenue is now around $2.3 trillion.  If you examine $20 trillion of debt, and factor in a dramatic increase in interest rates in coming years, as money is printed and inflation enters the picture, an interest rate of 12% is very likely.

Take 12% of  $20 trillion and you get $2.4 trillion per year just in interest.  That figure is more than the current tax revenue of $2.3 trillion.  So the US will reach a point, in the not too distant future, where the total debt servicing will be equal to the total tax revenue.  That is of course unsustainable.

If you look at global debt, in the last ten years it is up from $80 trillion, to $200 trillion.  These are figures which are hard to comprehend.  Global debt has increased $120 trillion in just ten years.  So when you look at the so-called prosperity of the world, it is all based on debt.  So it is all an illusion.

Central bank balance sheets are also exploding.  They have increased 16%, compounded, per annum.  What are the central banks doing?  Just like the Fed, they are buying toxic debt which has zero value.  What are they doing to buy that?  They are printing worthless pieces of paper, they call it ‘money,’ and with that ‘money’ they are buying another worthless piece of paper which they call an ‘asset.’

So it is the most massive Ponzi scheme the world has ever seen, and this will clearly end in total disaster.  It will end with the implosion of debt and the implosion of assets.  But before that, we will have hyperinflation.  As governments continue to print, we will have hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation comes from a collapsing currency.  Take Iran, which is a good example.  Iran’s currency is now down 70%, and inflation is now estimated to be running at 50% per month.  This is what we will see all over the Western world in coming years.  I’m absolutely certain about that.”

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Heads a deflationary implosion – Tails a hyperinflationary depression, Clive Maund dari memiliki ulasan yang serius mengenai krisis ekonomi global akut tersebut, namun tetap menyertai gambar-gambar lucu. Berikut sejumlah paragraph dari artikelnya tersebut, yang dipublikasikan pada 18 Juni 2012 (jangan khawatir isi dan pesannya masih relevan hingga saat ini):

“The situation has now become dangerously unstable, because everyone and everything is maxed out with debt, which we should not forget is frequently leveraged to far greater extremes via derivatives, and in many instances victims have gone way beyond their capacity to repay.

This can only mean one of two things – default or repayment or servicing of debt in devalued coin.  In such circumstances it only takes some spark – a catalyst – to bring the whole system crashing down, what we might term a “gigantic global reset”, which is actually necessary and is going to happen as a deflationary implosion, or happen later as a result of accelerating QE via hyperinflation and its resulting economic wasteland.  That catalyst is Europe.

The discordant buffoons running Europe have created such an unholy mess that it is unraveling at extraordinary speed.  Realizing that their creditors are not going to be able to repay them, the banks are scrambling to push he bill for their excesses onto governments and taxpayers via bailouts and austerity measures, which they are able to do because of the power they wield over politicians, many who are severely compromised.  The citizens of Greece and Spain don’t need to be told that a deflationary implosion is already underway in their countries, with a vicious circle of falling productivity and reduced tax revenues well underway that is getting worse and worse, so the austerity measures look set to backfire on the bankers and their political representatives.  If these austerity measures and associated deflation spread we are looking at a global depression, since Europe is the world’s biggest economy.  European leaders, which is to say Central Bankers, are well behind the curve with this and need to get cranking the QE money pumps without delay, in order to put off the onset of depression.  This will buy time, and is thus the most attractive option for them, but will still lead to a collapse that is first preceded by hyperinflation.

What is set out above is “The Big Picture” of the world economy.  The world needs a long and deep depression in order to purge itself of excess debt and the distortions, inefficiencies and misallocation of capital resulting there from, and it is going to get it, QE and hyperinflation first or not. All the daily noise in the media about the Greek election, or any elections, or the hyped up Fed meetings and pronouncements, or what Mrs. Merkel thinks and says etc is just irrelevant fluff, detail and distraction for the unthinking masses, and ultimately is not going to avert the grim outcome of this appalling mess.  Not until all this debt is repudiated and the world has gotten the usurious banking system off its back, with its tentacles reaching deep into government everywhere, will the world be able to move forward again.  Then at long last we will be able to hail the return of true capitalism and the free market.” (emphasis mine)



Well said, very well said, Clive!

What Do the Charts Say?

Saya hanya memiliki 1 grafik dengan diiringi beberapa komentar untuk Anda hari ini – yang diambil dari Tyler Durden dari – yang menunjukkan bahwa total hutang AS dan persentase perubahannya untuk basis bulanan. Sekaligus sebagai pengingat bahwa dalam waktu dekat akan menyentuh batas hutangnya., yang akan meningkatkan ketidakpastian dan volatilitas di pasar. Saya hanya menambahkan bahwa ‘Forewarned is forearmed’, sehingga masing-masing perlu bersiap untuk menghadapinya dengan baik:

Starting Off With a Bang: In First Month of Fiscal 2013, US Adds $195 Billion in Debt
It seems like it was only yesterday that the US closed the book on Fiscal 2012 (technically, it was September 30), with a modest $16.066 trillion in debt. What was notable is that the monthly additions to the total debt balance toward the end of 2012 were getting smaller and smaller until the October incremental addition was a puny $50 billion (even though mysteriously the US ended up with a budget Surplus of $75 billion for the month). Turns out it was merely yet another political stall tactic to avoid the true face of America’s debt peeking into the open public. Because as of several hours ago, the DTS announced the total debt as of October 31, or the first completed month of fiscal 2013. The number: $16.262 trillion. This means that in the month of October, when delaying displaying the true creditor plight of this country was no longer an option, Uncle Sam went to town, and raised $195 billion. This amounts to $6.3 billion per calendar (not work) day, and $262 million per calendar (not work) hour.

Keep in mind that this is happening as both the household, financial and corporate sectors are now releveraging, so one can’t use the argument that the US is merely picking up someone else’s slack.

And with total debt subject to the ceiling now at $16.222 trillion, and with the ceiling at $16.394 trillion, it means the US has $172 billion in incremental debt capacity, or if one were to use the rate of October change as a benchmark, roughly 26 days until breach and the mandatory raiding of various government funds has to commence. The breach will with absolute certainty happen before the year is out, or just as the negotiations over the fiscal cliff are in full swing…

Agar tetap tersenyum, berikut saya persembahkan sebuah gambit lucu yang terkait dengan masalah hutang AS.

Dibuat Tanggal 26 November 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Sampai Kapan Kegilaan Ini Akan Berlangsung?

November 23rd, 2012 No comments

“Europe continues to try to quench the fire with gasoline – German-enforced austerity.  In a mere three years, the euro zone’s financial crisis has become an existential crisis for Europe. Let’s not delude ourselves: If the euro falls apart, so will the European Union, triggering a global economic crisis on a scale that most people alive today have never experienced.”

-Joschka Fischer, Germany’s former vice-Chancellor


“Banks and their governments are propping each other up like Friday night drunks.”

-The Economist magazine

Saya terpaksa mengatakan ini, meskipun saya sendiri berkebangsaan Eropa, menurut saya seluruh proyek Eropa adalah kegagalan besar. Kadang-kadang saya tidak tahan melihat kegilaan yang terus berlangsung setiap hari.

Kebanyakan politisi Eropa – terutama anggota dewan di parlemen Eropa (MEP) – berkelakuan seperti anak kecil yang sedang bermain di taman kanak-kanak. Maksud saya adalah mengapa mereka tidak bisa menghadapi kenyataan dan mengakui bahwa monetary union adalah sebuah gurauan besar, dan hanya akan membawa penderitaan yang juga besar bagi jutaan masyarakat Eropa.

Mungkin kegilaan ini akan berakhir ketika masyarakat Eropa sudah merasa cukup dengan kekacauan yang sedang mereka rasakan saat ini.  Seperti yang selalu dikatakan Gerald Celente, “When people have nothing to lose, they lose it!” Atau dengan kata lain, jika sesuatu tidak bisa berlanjut selamanya, maka ia akan berhenti.  Ini adalah fakta, setuju atau tidak sebaiknya Anda mempersiapkan diri untuk kejutan yang mengerikan yang dapat mengguncang pondasi perekonomian dunia.

Untuk itu tidak ada salahnya membahas apa yang (telah) keliru, dan apa yang mungkin dilakukan untuk memperbaiki situasi tersebut.  Yang pertama adalah Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, editor bisnis internasional pada the Daily Telegraph, yang kembali memberikan pandangannya dalam Who will stop the Sado-Monetarists as jobless youth hits 58pc in Greece?.

Dalam tulisan tersebut dia menjelaskan mengapa luka di Eropa kian parah – terutama di Yunani dimana partai neo-Nazi, Golden Dawn, sedang berkembang – serta menjelaskan situasi tersebut akan menjadi sangat eksplosif di luar dugaan Anda. Ini adalah tulisan yang HARUS DIBACA bagi yang masih berpikiran bahwa Uni Eropa masih akan bersatu seperti saat ini:

“Greek unemployment rose to 25.4pc in August. Youth unemployment rose to 58pc.

Under the official forecast, the economy will contract by a further 4.5pc next year, so it fair to assume that lots more people are going to lose their jobs. It is certainly not going to improve in any meaningful way for years to come.

This is what happens when you lock into the wrong currency and block the escape routes – or join a “burning building with no exits” in the words of William Hague.

Even if Greeks comply with all demands, public debt will reach 179pc of GDP next year. Perhaps there will be some sort of formula to cut debt service costs by shaving 50 basis points off interest on rescue loans, and persuading the ECB to forgo “profits” on its estimated €40 billion holdings of Greek bonds (though unrealized profits would seem be courting fate).

Yet it is hard to see how the salary and pension cuts, etc, pushed through the Greek parliament last night with enormous difficulty can do any more than buy a few months’ delay. The protests on Wednesday bordered on urban guerrilla warfare. It will not take much to cross that line.

Even if the EMU machine succeeds in keeping Greece in the system, is this any longer a remotely desirable goal? Has it not become a vicious and immoral policy in itself?

I agree with the IFO Institute’s Hans-Werner Sinn that upholding euro membership has by now become an act of cruelty. It not being done in the interests of Greeks. It is being done for the Project, by enforcers of the Project. Only by breaking free can Greece restore a minimum of economic vibrancy and national dignity.

Everything we know from labour studies is that the early twenties are crucial years, shaping lifelong career paths and earnings ten to fifteen years beyond. The worst economic crime you cannot commit is to leave 58pc of youth grinding away their days in frustration in cafés, if they can afford the coffee.

Premier Antonis Samaras issued hysterical warnings before the vote of what would happen if parliament refused to obey the EU-IMF Troika, talking of catastrophe and a collapse of Greek society.

He has little credibility. His party was chiefly responsible for the grotesque mismanagement of Greece in the early EMU years. There is no necessary reason why Greece should spiral into collapse outside EMU, or why the Drachma would plummet to Third World levels.

This would happen only if the EU decided to make that happen. Why would the EU behave in such a fashion? It would have every reason to try to salvage what it could from the fiasco and demonstrate that EU solidarity is still worth something.

Technically, the ECB could be instructed to defend a euro-drachma rate – let us say a 30pc devaluation – until the dust had settled.

The EIB and Commission could intervene with all kinds of investment and trade support to cushion the blow. An orderly transition is not beyond the wit of man. It would restore the basic competitiveness of the Greek economy at a stroke.

We all know the reason why this is not being done. The ideologues running monetary union cannot bring themselves to contemplate any step back in the Project, just as they would not admit yesterday in the Commission’s economic report that they have gravely misjudged the effects of fiscal tightening (the fiscal multiplier) and have therefore miscrafted their entire austerity strategy.

We are not dealing with rational people. We are dealing with a religious order, and these monks are becoming an increasing danger to Europe’s societies and democracies.

Margaret Thatcher’s advisers were tagged Sado-Monetarists in the early 1980s but they never inflicted anything remotely close to this level of suffering. The strange silence of the Left on this is baffling. Sooner or later my Fabian friends will have make up their minds whether they are for the workers, or for the “bankers ramp” — as old Socialists like Peter Shore used to describe monetary union.

The Draghi Put has lifted the immediate financial threat, but this makes matters worse. The drip-drip of ugly economic data continues each day. The deeper structural crisis is still getting worse. Loan demand has crashed 50pc in Italy and France. Spain’s unemployment is 25.8pc and may reach 30pc next year.

Yet there is no longer any immediate catalyst or external umpire in the markets that can bring this mass civic abuse to an end. Unless the Bundestag comes to the rescue by refusing to pay for any more can-kicking, we may have to wait until internal devaluations in the Club Med bloc push jobless rates to such excruciating levels that the political system snaps.

It is the worst of all worlds.”

Demikian dengan Nigel Farage, pemimpin UK Independence Party (UKIP), yang selalu bicara apa adanya mengenai drama yang sedang terjadi di Eropa.

Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan King World News ( pada 14 November lalu, Nigel berbicara tentang meningkatnya kerusuhan di Eropa:

Strikes, strikes, strikes.  Lots and lots of strikes and demonstrations.  Big strikes today, all across the Mediterranean, but they are now beginning to permeate northwards.  In fact, there has been a very major strike in Belgium today.”

I was actually due to go to the European Parliament today but couldn’t get there.  No planes, no trains.  Ostensibly the strikes are about protests to government austerity.  Strikes are now becoming an almost everyday feature of life in Europe.

If people haven’t got hope, through their own directly elected representatives, then all they can do is take to the streets in increasing numbers, and these aren’t peaceful strikes….

These aren’t just people walking down the road carrying banners.  We’re talking here about tear gas, rubber bullets, violence, lots of injuries.  This is very, very nasty stuff, and I see absolutely no prospect of it ending in the short-term.

It doesn’t matter how many people are starving or homeless.  That doesn’t matter.  The ‘Great European Project’ must continue.  That’s why I have absolutely no hesitation in saying that I don’t just disagree with the architects of this European project, I believe them to be fundamentally bad and dangerous people.

In Greece, we talked before when it went through 50% youth unemployment.  The last figures I saw were (a shocking) 57%.  So we are now pushing up towards 60% (youth unemployment).  What we are looking at is something, I’m afraid, that is very, very akin to the Weimar Republic and that breakdown which happened in Germany in the early 1930s that led to Hitler.

I’m not saying Hitler is coming back to haunt Europe, but what I am saying is, isn’t it truly astonishing that we have Nazism on the rise in Southern Europe?

The feedback I get from across Europe, and I’m talking Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, Spain, etc., the feedback is astonishing.  I did a speech about Spain a few months ago, pointing out just the hopelessness of their position inside the euro zone and why they should leave.

That (speech) was translated into Spanish, and do you know one million people saw that on YouTube within two weeks in Spain alone?  So there is a huge hunger, there is a huge appetite for people out there.  For people who are looking for alternatives, who are looking for boldness, and who are looking for courage.  And sadly, they are not getting it from their own political class.

I think the biggest worry is that we get some kind of total breakdown of confidence in society.  Of trust, in not just the government, but the police force and the army and everything else.  I genuinely fear that we are going to see very large scale confrontation in Southern Europe with an awful lot of people getting hurt or killed.  That’s my biggest fear.”

Salah satu solusi yang pernah saya bahas sebelumnya adalah Jerman harus keluar dari Uni Eropa.  Mayoritas masyarakat Indonesia bahkan tidak berpikir mengenai hal ini ketika saya sampaikan kepada mereka. Jadi setiap saya mengulas topik ini, banyak di antara mereka yang heran dan langsung memberikan pertanyaan.

Menurut saya adalah masuk akal bagi Jerman untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa dan kembali ke mata uang lama mereka (yang kuat), yakni Deutsche Mark.  Hal ini juga disebut-sebut oleh Patrick Barron, seorang konsultan di industri perbankan dan pengajar ekonomi Austria pada University of Iowa.

Berikut adalah artikel yang ditulis Patrick pada akhir bulan lalu untuk Ludwig von Mises Institute, yang berjudul A Golden Opportunity:

“The euro debt crisis in Europe has presented Germany with a unique opportunity to lead the world away from monetary destruction and its consequences of economic chaos, social unrest, and unfathomable human suffering. The cause of the euro debt crisis is the misconstruction of the euro that allows all members of the European Monetary Union (EMU), currently 17 sovereign nations, to print Euros and force them on all other members. Dr. Philipp Bagus of King Juan Carlos University in Madrid has diagnosed this situation as a tragedy of the commons in his aptly named book The Tragedy of the Euro. Germany is on the verge of seeing its capital base plundered from the inevitable dynamics of this tragedy of the commons. It should leave the EMU, reinstate the deutsche mark (DM), and anchor it to gold.

The Structure of the European Monetary Union

The European System of Central Banks (ESCB) consists of one central bank, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the national central banks of the EMU, all of which are still extant within their own sovereign nations. Although the ECB is prohibited by treaty from monetizing the debt of its sovereign members via outright purchases of their debt, it has interpreted this limitation on its power not to include lending Euros to the national central banks taking the very same sovereign debt as collateral. Of course this is simply a backdoor method to circumvent the very limitation that was insisted on when the more responsible members such as Germany joined the European Monetary Union.

Corruption of the European Central Bank into an Engine of Inflation

When the ECB was first formed around the turn of the new millennium, the bond markets assumed that it would be operated along the lines of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, which ran probably the least inflationary monetary system in the developed world. However, they also assumed that the EMU would not allow one of its members to default on its sovereign debt. Therefore, the interest rate for many members of the EMU fell to German levels.

Unfortunately, many nations in the EMU did not use this lower interest rate as an opportunity to reduce their budgets; rather, many simply borrowed more. Thus was born the euro debt crisis, when it became clear to the bond market that debt repayment by many members of the EMU was questionable. Interest rates for these nations soared.

Over the past few years the European Union itself has established several bailout funds, but the situation has not been resolved. In fact, things are even worse, for it now appears that even larger members of the EMU succumbed to the debt orgy and may need a bailout to avoid default. Thus we have arrived at the point predicted by Dr. Bagus in which the euro has been plundered by multiple parties and the pot is empty. The ECB and many sovereign members of the EMU want unlimited bond buying of sovereign debt by the ECB. Only Germany opposes this plan, but it is the lone voice against this new bout of monetary inflation.

The Historical Context of German Antipathy to Monetary Inflation

In 1923 Germany experienced one of the world’s worst cases of hyperinflation and the worst ever for an industrialized nation. The reichsmark was destroyed by its own central bank, plunging the German people into misery and desperation. Now, after only a dozen years of relative monetary discipline, the euro faces the same fate as country after country demands to be bailed out of its mounting debts by unlimited printing of money by the ECB. Because Germany is part of the EMU, it must accept these newly printed Euros. This threatened monetary inflation of unlimited amounts has shaken German bankers to the core. It is the nightmare scenario that they feared when, against their better judgment, the German politicians agreed to give up their beloved deutsche mark and place the economic fate of the nation in the hands of a committee of foreigners not as concerned about monetary inflation. But Germany can put a stop to this destruction and save the world while it saves itself. It can leave the EMU, reinstate the deutsche mark, and tie it to gold.

A Golden Deutsche Mark Is Possible and Desirable

Despite the haughty pronouncements of EU officials, there is nothing that can stop a sovereign country from leaving the EMU and adopting a different monetary system. The most likely scenario would be a one-for-one redenomination of German banks’ euro-denominated accounts for deutsche marks. Thereafter, the DM would float freely in currency markets in the same way as British pounds and American dollars. The Bundesbank would be responsible for monetary policy just as it was before Germany joined the EMU. By leaving the EMU Germany would insulate itself from the consequences of the euro as a tragedy of the commons; i.e., monetary inflation by third parties would end, Germany would not experience higher prices due to the actions of third parties, and the capital-destroying transfers of wealth would end.

Yet Germany should go one step further. It should anchor the DM to gold. Germany is the world’s fourth-largest economy, behind only the United States, China, and Japan. Furthermore, Germany owns more of the world’s gold than any other entity except the United States, more than either China or Japan and more than any other European country. A prerequisite to market acceptance of any gold money would be confidence in the integrity of the sponsoring institution. Not only is the Bundesbank known for its integrity and reverence for stable money; Germany itself has a worldwide reputation for the rule of law, advanced financial architecture, and a stable political system. For these reasons, Germany would prove to the world that a gold-backed money is not only possible but desirable.

Expect a cascade of similar pronouncements once Germany’s trading partners realize the importance of settling international financial transactions in the best money available — which initially at least would be a golden DM.

Germany Should Seize the Moment!

Of course the beneficial consequences of tying money to gold go beyond ending price inflation and capital-destroying wealth transfers. We can expect all the beneficial consequences of a return to limited government, for government could no longer fund itself through the unholy alliance with an inflationary central bank that creates fiat money in order to monetize government’s profligate spending. The people would no longer be so subservient to government, pleading and begging for special interests at the expense of the rest of society, for government would be forced to go to the people for approval to increase its budget. The list of benefits goes on and on. Suffice it to say that it all begins with truly sound money, money anchored in gold. Germany can lead the way and earn the just respect of a grateful world. It is in the right place at the right moment in history. It should seize the moment!”

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada 2 grafik di bawah ini ditunjukkan secara jelas situasi yang memburuk di Eropa. Saya kira Anda tidak perlu terlalu cerdas hanya untuk melihat mayoritas indikator yang semakin memburuk, dan penderitaan masyarakat semakin berat.

Seluruh komentar yang menyertainya adalah datang dari Tyler Durden dari, dan pesan dari grafik tersebut benar-benar luar biasa.

1)  Europe’s Scariest Chart Hits Peak Scariness Levels, And Rising

Things are rather unsurprisingly going from worse to worserer in Europe. Perhaps it is the anecdotal evidence we see in the now weekly riot-cams from Spain and Greece but just as we warned over a year ago, the truly scariest chart in Europe remains that of youth unemployment. The correlation (and causation) that runs from extreme levels of youth unemployment to general social unrest and anarchy is stunning throughout time (as we noted here and here). With Greek ‘youth’ unemployment jumping to a disheartening 58% (for August) – by far its highest ever – and Spain rising inexorably at 54.2%, the under-25 populations in these nations is truly set to burst (with overall unemployment rates of 25.4% and 25.5% respectively). Euro-zone youth unemployment overall has risen to 23.3% and while Greece jumped the most, Italy was close behind with a 1.2ppt rise to 35.1%. We are sure the austerity voted for last night by the politicians will ‘help’ – someone…

Data: Bloomberg and Greek Statistics Office

2)  Spanish Bad Loans Hit Fresh Record High Again

In what is becoming a monthly parabolic charting tradition, it is again time to update the Spanish bad loan total: in September, Spanish loans that fell into arrears increased by €3.5 billion from August, reaching €182.2 billion in September. This is 10.71% of the total Spanish bank loans of €1.7 trillion, and an increase from 10.5% in the prior month. At the same time, new bank loans expanded 0.2% in September and dropped 4.9% from a year ago, the Bank of Spain said. Deposits rose 1.4% from the previous month and declined 7.3% from a year earlier.  Putting the bad loan number in context, it is nearly double the €100 billion that the Spanish banks will receive as part of the bank bailout plan disclosed in July, and well above the “only” €40 billion that Spain promises it will need to actually fund bank capital shortfalls. Putting it into further context, as a percentage of GDP, it would be the equivalent of $2.8 trillion in US loans going bad. Naturally, just like with any “forecast” involving Greece, the final bailout (of both Spain’s banks, and the sovereign) will be orders of magnitude higher, but for now everyone is forgiven to stick their head in the sand for at least a few more days/weeks.

Meskipun telah membahas kekacauan di Eropa di atas, tentunya kita tidak boleh kehilangan semangat, kan? Jadi untuk itu saya persembahkan sejumlah gambar lucu dari William Banzai tentang fiat alchemy:

Dibuat Tanggal 23 November 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Hanya Tinggal Masalah Waktu

November 21st, 2012 No comments

“The hardest thing to do in a bull market is to take a position and then to refrain from trading.  When you trade, you’re most likely to trade out of the bull market just before the next advance.  Gold has one great advantage – you never have to worry about gold going bankrupt.  Thus, you can hold actual gold with impunity.  The best way to handle actual gold in a bull market is to accumulate – never sell, but just continue to accumulate.”

-Richard Russell

Pagi ini saat saya mandi setelah sarapan bersama keluarga, saya berpikir tentang emas dan kata-kata dalam judul tulisan ini pun muncul di kepala saya: It Is Only A Matter Of Time.

Kita harus bersabar untuk menunggu emas naik kembali dan menguji level resistance penting di sekitar $1800/oz.  Tidak ada seorang pun yang tahu, termasuk saya, kapan itu akan terjadi, namun memang hanya soal waktu saja.

Saya tahu bahwa menunggu itu adalah pekerjaan yang membosankan, namun terkadang duduk berpangku tangan tanpa melakukan apapun merupakan hal yang terbaik.  Dan inilah yang akan menjadi persoalan untuk pasar emas saat ini, jadi kesabaran merupakan suatu kebajikan yang sangat dibutuhkan untuk saat ini.

Kalau kita membicarakan emas, maka tidak lengkap jika tidak membahas soal Cina.  Baru-baru ini Tyler Durden dari membahasnya dalam 2 laporan terpisah, yang bisa Anda lihat di bawah ini, dan menyimpulkan bahwa Cina masih akan menjadi faktor penentu bagi pasar emas dalam beberapa tahun mendatang:

1)  Chinese Gold Imports Surge In September, YTD Total Surpasses Official Indian Holdings (November 11th)

Anyone who may have been concerned by the slowdown in Chinese gold imports in August, when the country imported “only” 53.5 tons of gold from Hong Kong (down from 75.8 in July), can breathe a sigh of relief. According to the Hong Kong Census Bureau, in September Chinese gross imports soared by 30% reverting to the long-term trend line of 65 tons in gross imports per month, and rising to a total of 69.7 tons. Net imports were 40% less, although that excludes organic Chinese gold mining and recirculation, which is why for all intents and purposes the gross number is the apples to apples one. And using that, Year-To-Date China has now imported a whopping 582 tons of gold, more than the official holdings of India at 558 tons, and which through November has certainly surpassed the holdings of the Netherlands, and make China’s gross imports in just 2012 nominally the equivalent of Top 10 largest sovereign holder of gold.

This way at least we know where China is recycling all that vast trade surplus, which incidentally in October just printed, goalseeked or not, at the highest level – $32 billion – since January of 2009. Too bad China no longer recycles all those excess reserves into US Treasury paper (as we showed previously here).

YTD China gross imports from Hong Kong:

Where does this put China:

And in historical perspective: the recent surge in demand for gold is quite unmistakable:

2)  China Says It Must Add To Gold Reserves To Promote Yuan Globalization And As An FX Hedge (November 13th)

Back in September, when we provided the monthly observation on what has become a record year to date surge in Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong, we reminded readers that “in December 2009, the China Youth Daily quoted State Council advisor Ji as saying that a team of experts from Beijing and Shanghai have set up a “task force” last year to consider growing China’s gold reserves. “We suggested that China’s gold reserves should reach 6,000 tons in the next 3-5 years and perhaps 10,000 tons in 8-10 years,” the paper quoted him. Has China managed to accumulated 6,000 tons yet?  We won’t know for sure until the official disclosure which will come when China is ready and not a moment earlier, but at the current run-rate of accumulation which is just shy of 1,000 tons per year, it is certainly within the realm of possibilities that China is now the second largest holder of gold in the world, surpassing Germany’s 3,395 tons and second only to the US.”

Two days ago we showed that the relentless importing of gold in China continues, yet what has been missing is an update direct form the horse’s mouth how China feels toward gold (because we certainly know how it feels toward US Treasury paper).

Today, we finally got one straight from Beijing, and that during a very carefully supervised time when the 18th Communist Congress is still in session, and every word out of China has profoundly telegraphic implications.

From Bloomberg:

  • China needs to add to its gold reserves to ensure national economic and financial safety, promote Yuan globalization and as a hedge against foreign- reserve risks, Gao Wei, an official from the Department of International Economic Affairs of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, writes in a commentary in the China Securities Journal today.
  • While gold prices are currently near record highs, China can build its reserves by buying low and selling high amid the short-term volatility, Gao writes in newspaper
  • China’s gold reserve is “too small”, Gao says

And there it is: while many have speculated that China, which has not given an update of its official holdings in nearly 4 years, is quietly building up its gold reserve holdings behind the scenes, there was no reason to worry. The time to worry would be when China was starting to give indications it is prepared to tell the world what its true gold holdings are (by now certainly well over 1000 tonnes). And the above piece from Wei is just that: because in saying very little, the Chinese official with a key political post has just given the first hint that China is preparing to give its official gold far greater focus. And from there, the time until China releases an IMF update on its official reserve holdings will be measured in days if not hours. Because all the gold will have long been accumulated.

And once that happens it will be too late to buy any incremental gold. Or tungsten.

What Do the Charts Say?

Berikut saya ingin mengetengahkan kepada Anda sejumlah grafik yang mengindikasikan bahwa koreksi di pasar emas sudah hampir selesai, sementara besok (Kamis 22 November 2012) saya akan membahas lebih dalam mengenai gambaran emas untuk beberapa pekan hingga bulan ke depan.

Artikel pertama beserta grafiknya datang dari Toby Connor, seorang penulis pada Gold Scents, sebuah blog finansial dengan penekanan khusu pada gold secular bull market.  Dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Major Buying Opportunity, Connor mengatakan agar kita bersiap untuk kenaikan emas yang kemungkinan akan terjadi hingga Q1 2013.

“I’m just going to do a quick post today. The relevant factors are that gold appears to have put in an intermediate degree bottom last week. Miners are being dragged down at the moment as the stock market makes its final move into an intermediate bottom. This happens pretty much like clockwork every 20-25 weeks (currently on week 23).

Invariably when stocks move down into one of these major cycle bottoms the selling pressure infects everything. It finally grabbed the miners today even though gold has barely budged. Not to worry though, as we’ve seen this happen dozens of times in the past and the miners always snap back violently once the selling pressure in the stock market exhausts.

More importantly than where things are going tomorrow or the next day is where they are headed over the next intermediate cycle. As I have diagrammed in the chart below the dollar is due for a move down into a yearly cycle low around mid-February or early March – roughly the same time as last year. This will drive the next intermediate rally in gold (and stocks) for about the next 12-15 weeks.

I’ll say it again. Buying anywhere around these levels will deliver big gains over the next 3-4 months.

This is that period of time that comes only once or twice a year when the chartists get fleeced (the charts always say the market is going lower at intermediate bottoms. This is why chartists always miss these major bottoms. You need different tools to spot these kind of buying opportunities) as the smart money positions for the next leg up.

The choice is yours. Do you want to sell at the bottom again, or will you be a buyer this time and make some money? (I think big money).”

David Petch dari Treasure Chests had sedikit-banyak membahas hal yang sama dalam Correction Nearly Done, serta membuat sejumlah prediksi luar biasa mengenai pergerakan emas ke depannya:

“The short-term Elliott Wave count of gold is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green, with wave [Y] thought to be forming at present…I am expecting to provide lower Degree labeling schemes within 2-3 weeks. Whenever parabolic moves terminate a corrective phase and are not fully retraced, it provides a bullish indication that higher prices are looming. At present, there is a triple top around $1800/ounce, $120/ounce lower than the September 2011 high. When gold takes out $1800/ounce, it will create a move that powers well above the $1900/ounce…this is due to the significant amount of price action and time required to correct the top. Gold is expected to top out anywhere between $2500-3074/ounce before the end of August 2013. If $3000/ounce is hit, then a 61.8% retracement of the move from the end of wave [X] is expected, or $2200/ounce. This move down should occur between Q3 and Q4 2014, which will subsequently see gold go to anywhere from $6000-10,000/ounce. In order to balance all global debts by 2020, I calculated a valuation of $30,000/ounce would be required. I do not think the price will get to this level, but one thing I can guarantee….if gold goes above $7000/ounce, gold should be owned over stocks because most countries will be nationalizing mines for financial security.”

Yang tak kalah penting datang dari Jesse’s Café Américain yang memiliki laporan lainnya mengenai pola emas yang pernah saya lihat sebelumnya dalam Closer Look at Gold’s Potential ‘Cup and Handle’ Formation.  Berikut dia memberikan tips yang menarik bagi para trader – baik yang baru maupun yang sudah berpengalaman – yang membaca laporannya:

“There is an inverse head and shoulder formation within the developing handle of the cup and handle formation.

The inverse H&S pattern measures to 1810 as a minimum objective. That is also the point at which the handle would be at a breakout to validate the entire cup and handle formation.

I would expect gold to break out and run to that point, with resistance heavier around 1790-1810. There may be some time to actually break out, as the shorts will attempt to hold a strong line there and at the next major objective at 2100 or so, which is the first objective of the cup and handle.

In a major liquidity event, all bets are off of course, as everything gets sold, and some extraordinary deals may be had for the longer term investor, what we call ‘buying opportunities’ on the charts.

For those who are not comfortable with trading, establishing a strong long term position is the best strategy in a bull market. Some do both, hold a long term core position that is never touched, and also use a smaller amount of capital to ‘trade around’ the intermediate term swings and dips.

The most important thing is to never panic and lose your entire position while the bull market remains intact, because it is very difficult for most people to summon the will to buy back in. I have seen many who sold out, and who have never gotten back in because they kept waiting for some extreme ‘bottom’ that never arrives.

They often fall into ‘trading their egos’ with paper trades on chat boards, seeking company in their misery of having been right, and then losing their way. Their bitterness is best to be avoided since it weakens and distracts.

A wise trader rarely seeks to obtain ‘the bottom’ or ‘the top.’ This is a mug’s game. An experienced trader waits to find the true trend, and not exhaust their account in pursuit of trading perfection, ‘secret knowledge,’ pride and ‘followers.’ The truth is what it is, and it reveals itself to us in its own time.

We are now in a period of ‘hysteria’ when the unworthy will be blinded by their own pride, and will thrash about in fear and loathing. Lies will abound and the love of many people will grow cold.

When in doubt, look to see if a person’s words are crafted in love and caring, or in pride and contempt. This is not certain, of course, since nothing human is without error, but it is a way to avoid the most common of deceptions.

Self-deception is the most dangerous, and the cure for that is humility. I have learned that lesson, many times alas.

Always look for that rarest of qualities, genuine love of others, because the great deceivers have none but for themselves.

There will come a time to sell, but I do not think that we are there yet. Is the economic crisis over? Has the financial system been reformed? Is the debt well founded and under strong management? Is there transparency that appeals to our ‘common sense?’ Is the global currency regime well-ordered and robust? These are some of the signs that we will look for in seeking to find the next plateau.”

Tidak seperti biasanya, kali ini saya tidak menyertakan gambar-gambar lelucon melainkan sebuah foto dari yang mudah-mudahan bisa memberikan Anda inspirasi:

Dibuat Tanggal 21 November 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Bursa Sedang Berada dalam Titik Perubahan (Inflection Point) Besar? (Bagian 2)

November 20th, 2012 No comments

“In 2008, you could cut rates; do QE1, QE2; you could do fiscal stimulus; you could backstop/ring fence/guarantee banks and everybody else.  Today, more QEs are becoming less and less effective because the problems are of solvency not liquidity.  Fiscal deficits are already so large and you cannot bail out the banks because 1) there is a political opposition to it; and 2) governments are near-insolvent – they cannot bailout themselves let alone their banks.  Theproblem is that we are running out of policy rabbits to pull out of the hat!

-Nouriel Roubini

“We are entering the era of investing where the risks are increasingly disproportionate to the downside.  The prudent investor should be much more concerned these days with return OF capital, versus return ON capital.

-Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity

Berita besar baru-baru ini tentunya adalah downgrade dari Moody’s untuk peringkat obligasi pemerintah Perancis menjadi Aa1 dari level Aaa.  Berikut adalah bagian terpenting dari downgrade tersebut beserta alasan penundaan rilisnya yang sudah lama:

“Moody’s decision to downgrade France’s rating and maintain the negative outlook reflects the following key interrelated factors:

  1. France’s long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets.
  2. France’s fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above.
  3. The predictability of France’s resilience to future euro area shocks is diminishing in view of the rising risks to economic growth, fiscal performance and cost of funding. France’s exposure to peripheral Europe through its trade linkages and its banking system is disproportionately large, and its contingent obligations to support other euro area members have been increasing. Moreover, unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, France does not have access to a national central bank for the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption.”

Menjelang perayaan Thanksgiving pekan ini, volume perdagangan akan lebih kecil dari biasanya, terutama Rabu, sehari sebelum tutupnya mayoritas bursa pada hari Kamis dan hanya sebagian yang buka (dalam beberapa jam saja) pada hari Jumat. Oleh karenanya, saya ingin memanfaatkan waktu yang agak sepi ini untuk melihat sisi lain alasan saya memandang bursa yang kemungkinan sedang berada dalam titik perubahan (inflection point) besar.

Mungkin Anda ingin tahu mengapa saya memilih judul seperti di atas, khususnya setelah baru saja bursa saham AS mengalami kenaikan harian terbesarnya selama 5 bulan, dan saham Apple (AAPL) melonjak ke level tertinggi selama 1 pekan dengan gerak swing low-ke-high terbesar kedua untuk 3 tahun ini.

Tentunya saya tahu bahwa bursa bursa tidak bergerak dalam 1 arah, sehingga meskipun kemungkinan bursa akan bergerak kembali dalam tren bearish-nya saya akan selalu ingat bahwa rally yang paling tajam biasanya terjadi saat tren sudah berubah turun.

Walaupun demikian, saya akan tetap berpikiran terbuka dan saya siap untuk mengubah sikap saya terhadap bursa jika reaction high terakhir di 13661,87 ditembus. Tetapi selama itu belum terjadi, saya masih berpandangan bearish dan akan menyarankan investor untuk melakukan aksi jual saat terjadi kenaikan.

Dalam catatan terbarunya di the Dow Theory Letters, penulis finansial kawakan, Richard Russell, juga mencoba menjawab pertanyaan yang sama.  Dan berikut adalah yang dikatakan Russell, disertai sejumlah grafik yang menarik:

“The multi-trillion-dollar question — Are we in a correction or a primary bear market? The answer, unfortunately, is that there’s no satisfactory answer. I hate using the word “hope” in this business, but I sincerely hope that we’re in a correction that might end at any time or at worst in another month or two.

One measure that has become popular is the 20% measure. If the Dow and the major stock averages drop 20% or more, then it’s presumably a bear market. But if you wait for the 20% measure, by that time, you’re broke, so I’d rather depend on the Dow Theory.

I even saw that metric being applied to a single stock today. That stock was Apple. Apple has now crashed over 20% from its high … Apple is now “in a bear market.”

Why am I worried that we could be in a primary bear market rather than a correction? First, the bear signal occurred back in October of 2007. The trouble came following a long climb from the early 1980s. The timing was right for a bear market to appear.

Secondly, stocks were in a bubble at the 2007 highs. The yield on the Dow and the S&P was below the dangerous 3% level. The decline from the 2007 high came amid a period of generally bullish sentiment. At the time, most of the newsletters and magazines were bullish and were suggesting stocks to buy.

I felt in my bones that a bear market had started (this, of course, is not proof of anything) but I often have to go with my instincts. What have we seen since? We saw a crushing decline from 2008 to 2009. Then from the 2009 low we saw a huge recovery that took the Dow back within shooting distance of its 2009 high.

I compared the advance from the 2009-2012 advance with the huge 1929-30 recovery that followed the 1929 crash. The only difference in the two episodes was that the 2009-2012 advance was even larger and more sustained then the 1929-1930 affair.

At first, some advisors did indeed compare the two recoveries, but when the 2009-2012 recovery continued to near the record Dow high, advisors threw caution to the wind, and declared that a new bull market was in place. At any rate, I have never, since the 1980s, seen anything that resembled a true bear market bottom. And I think one is coming.

Putting it all together, I believe we are due for a true bear market that will culminate with a classic bear market bottom — with blue-chip stocks selling at extremely low prices and below known values.

After reviewing everything I’ve written above, I don’t believe I’ve made an airtight case for our being in a primary bear market at this time.

As I write, the Dow has fallen below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The next theoretical “support” comes in at Dow 12,000 and after that at Dow 10,000. Of course, the trouble with that kind of thinking is that in a true bear market, supports are meaningless. In a bear market, the Dow will cut through supports the way a hot knife cuts through butter.


Two items that I took as warnings. After (last) Wednesday’s “mini-crash” of 305 Dow points, I expected the Dow to recover a bit on Thursday. But no, (Thursday) the Dow closed right on its low, down 121 points. Also, Investors Intelligence’s survey of newsletter writers still shows bulls outweighing bears by 43.6% to 27.7%.

As the old adage runs — Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Bear markets descend on a slope of hope. And it looks as though there is still a lot of hope.

Below we see a daily of the Dow. It looks as though we’re seeing a variety of the oft-seen head-and-shoulders formation. The H&S formation often appears at the bitter end of an advance (remember Apple?). Note the dramatic pick-up in volume on Wednesday’s violent decline. My instinct tells me that we are in a bear market, and I’ll stick to that opinion until the market tells me I’m wrong.

If there’s no rally, then the market appears ominously bearish. I trust my subscribers are on the sidelines watching this painful and costly show. Note the increase in volume as the Dow declines.

In analyzing the Apple crash, note that the decline didn’t halt at the July low, which should have acted as support. Instead, Apple cut right through the July low of 564. This is brutal bear market action — where so-called “supports” don’t mean a thing.”

Berikutnya adalah Jim Quinn dari The Burning Platform blog yang dalam tulisannya yang berjudulWill A Prophet Assume Command? menyatakan bahwa: The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute. It will require courage, sacrifice, fortitude and a dramatic shift of our egocentric selfish culture to a culture of sustainability and caring about future generations. We’ve made many bad choices over the last few decades. Choices matter. These are the times that will try men’s souls.”

Jim juga membahas masa depan AS, dan menyusun sejumlah faktor yang berpotensi memicu datangnya krisis. Berikut adalah penjelasannya yang paling relevan pada tulisannya tersebut, yang mungkin mengejutkan Anda:

“It isn’t Morning in America anymore. It is more like Midnight in America on a bitterly cold dark February night as the gale force winds begin to gust, foretelling the approach of an epic winter blizzard. There are no easy solutions. The opportunity to alleviate the impact of this Crisis was during the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and we made all the wrong choices. Now we will pay the price. An era of depression and violence will be ushered in by an economic calamity that will make 2008 look like a minor blip.

The next stage of this Crisis is likely to be ignited by a downward spiral of societal trust caused by the next financial implosion, which is certain to occur. A world built upon debt, false promises, interconnected webs of deceitful derivatives, fiat currency backed only by the promises of lying politicians and captured central bankers, and a diminishing supply of easy to access natural resources, is hopelessly dependent upon the willful ignorance of the masses. As long as people want to be lied to rather than facing the truth, those in power can maintain the status quo. Once the jarring realization of reality overwhelms the propaganda and lies of the oligarchs, the battle for middle earth will begin. What will trigger the next phase of this Crisis? No one knows for sure, but based on the fault lines already evident, these are a possibility:

  • The inevitable breakup of the European Union with the consequences of massive bank defaults in Europe triggering worldwide bank defaults as the interconnected trillions of derivatives are lit like a string of firecrackers.
  • A sudden Greece like surge in interest rates on Japanese bonds results in a collapse of their debt ridden economic system, with reverberations throughout the world.
  • The Middle East tinderbox explodes as Israel attacks Iran and the law of unintended consequences takes hold. Alliances and treaties would draw Turkey into war with Syria and Iran. Russia and China could side against the U.S. Iran and their vassals would unleash terrorist attacks and disruption of Middle Eastern oil would drive prices over $200 per barrel, crushing the American economy.
  • A showdown on the debt ceiling and/or fiscal cliff results in a stock market crash, derailing the pitiful fledgling recovery created by Ben Bernanke’s QE to infinity measures.
  • A tipping point is reached with regards to the amount of debt that can be accumulated by our Federal, State and Local governments. A cascade of defaults could lead to a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar and a surge in interest rates. The defaults and increased interest on the national debt could lead to mass depression or in a worst case scenario – hyperinflation.
  • A large terrorist attack in one or more American cities would cause chaos, panic and fear, leading to more government control over our daily lives. This could trigger a counter response by those fed up with an overbearing government presence.
  • A catastrophic natural disaster or series of natural disasters would reveal the fragile nature of our just in time economic system. A breakdown of our logistical and infrastructure systems would lead to chaos and mass hysteria as the citizens who believed their government leaders would keep them safe, secure, warm, and fed realized it was all a sham. Their leaders were in it for the power and riches, not looking out for the best interests of the common folk.

No one knows for sure what will trigger the next leg down during this Crisis, but I can guarantee you that things will not be getting better in the near future. Don’t believe the mainstream media or politicians who tell us life in the good old U.S. of A will be back to normal in the near future. And those who predict a long slow gentle decline of the American Empire that can be managed by the oligarchs are badly mistaken. Transformative change, chaos, desperate measures, and total war will propel our nation through this cataclysmic saeculum and a positive outcome is not assured. An armed conflict – class war, sectional war, religious war, or war for oil – will be waged at some point and fought to the finish.”

Tidakkah itu menakutkan, namun saya sependapat dengan penulisnya bahwa perekonomian dan sistem moneter saat ini tidak akan bisa bertahan, sehingga kita kemungkinan akan menuju ke masa Greater Depression kembali, yang akan memberikan dampak mengerikan bagi mereka yang tidak siap menghadapinya dengan baik.

Skala krisis – menurut saya – akan menjadi yang paling besar dan belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya karena tingkat utang global dan juga nilai nominal derivatif yang beredar tidak pernah – saya tegaskan TIDAK PERNAH – sebesar ini.  Cepat atau lambat, saya perkirakan seperti efek domino, akan jatuh satu per satu, dimulai dengan Eropa, dan kemudian menyebar ke Inggris, Jepang, Cina dan akhirnya Amerika Serikat.

What Do the Charts Say?

Jika Anda pernah bertanya-tanya seberapa jauh saham Apple akan turun, makan Anda harus melihat dengan seksama grafik di bawah ini. Tyler Durden dari juga memberikan sejumlah komentar menariknya mengenai saham yang paling popular dan banyak dimiliki investor dengan kapitalisasi pasar yang terbesar tersebut, yang kembali turun ke bumi setelah naik ke angkasa dalam beberapa waktu lalu:

“It was only a few short weeks ago when we noted the interesting analogs between AAPL’s rise and the exponential exuberance of MSFT in the late 90s and NFLX this year. Sadly, for the long-suffering momentum-chasers, things have gone a little pear-shaped for Apple as it has followed, far too accurately, the same path from exuberance to realization. Where to next? MSFT says ‘a bounce to be faded’; NFLX says ‘dump it all’…either way $400 is in play for AAPL – back to the start of the year… cue fundamental defense of what is quite clearly a behavioral exuberance having played out.

Charts: Bloomberg

By the way, I personally think that the Apple stock’s future trajectory is going to be more similar to Microsoft’s, so AAPL could have a sizable rebound before going down much further (to between 300 and 350?).

Yang terakhir, kembali saya ketengahkan Tyler Durden bersama sejumlah grafiknya yang menarik yang menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian sedang tertahan, pendapatan perusahaan tidak sebaik yang diharapkan dan sejumlah peringatan mulai didengungkan:

1)  Chart Of The Day: When $0.99 Becomes Unaffordable, We Have A Problem

Earlier today, fast food juggernaut McDonalds reported same store sales for the month October. At -1.8%, this number was well below expectations of -1.1%, and a drop from September’s 1.9%. It was driven by a 2%+ drop in comp store sales across all locations: US, Europe and APMEA, with the US performing just as bad as Europe. Most importantly, this was the first monthly drop in MCD comp sales since March 2003! So our question is: at what point does the perpetually self-deluded US population finally admit to itself that when even 99 cent meals are no longer affordable, that this country has a problem?

Charting the last 4 years of McD sales, and eagerly looking forward to 4 more years.

2)  Q3 Earnings in One Chart

A shockingly low 30% of S&P 500 firms beat revenue expectations in the prior quarter and while Bloomberg’s data suggests around 65% beat earnings expectations, the in-period adjustment of expectations (analysts ratcheting down earnings as the season progresses) naturally biases this to look rosier. The critical question is – how much more fat is there to cut? With Sales (and outlooks) so weak, how many more jobs need to be cut to meet margin expectations? 2013 top- and bottom-line (+13.6% EPS growth) expectations remain magnificent in their optimism – do you believe in miracles?

Chart: Bloomberg Chart of the Day

3)  US Credit Euphoria Suggests More Caution Ahead

Credit markets have been bleeding wider recently but based on Credit Suisse’s ‘Risk Appetite Index’, they remain high in Euphoria territory in the US. This is worryingly crowded on its own but the key point that they note is the divergence between US exuberance and the rest-of-the-world’s far less sanguine view of credit. The risk-appetite spread between the two has been this wide two times before in recent years – July/August 2011 (which saw a major sell-off – debt ceiling) and April/May 2010 (another major sell-off – end of QE and flash-crash). As we noted earlier, equity market valuations are very much pinned to risky credit now and so this indicator is yet another canary-in-the-coalmine…

Comparing Credit Suisse’s Global and US Credit Risk Appetite Indices (blue dotted lines are peak divergences…)

which happen to coincide with rather notable selling pressure in credit (and hence equity) markets…

Agar senyum tetap di wajah kita, berikut saya persembahkan lelucon dari William Banzai:

Bernanke is nothing like Che
The People he seeks to betray
Ben’s revolution
Is fiat dilution
It’s Banksters that Ben likes to pay

The Limerick King



Such is the plight of the poor
The Kleptocrats always want more
A system of greed
Has now been decreed
A system that may lead to war

The Limerick King

Dibuat tanggal 20 November 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags: