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Market Outlook 2013 (Bagian 3)

December 31st, 2012 No comments

“I think 2013 will be an annus horribilis, and people can expect to see major change.  I am not a pessimist by nature, but I am a realist, and right now investors need to be warned about what is coming.  It is important to warn investors about the risks and to help protect against these risks.  The risks going forward are greater than ever.  Investors who make the right choice have a chance to protect themselves. Investors who make the wrong choice, they stand to lose everything.”

-Egon von Greyerz

Karena ini hari terakhir di tahun 2012, saya akan memberikan laporan yang singkat saja.

Sebelum melanjutkan pembahasan mengenai peluang dan ancaman pasar di tahun mendatang, tulisan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com di bawah ini akan menjelaskan apa yang akan dominan menjadi headline dalam beberapa bulan ke depan:

Geithner – US To Hit Debt Ceiling On December 31

Just because the Fiscal Cliff was not enough…

  • GEITHNER SAYS U.S. WILL REACH STATUTORY DEBT LIMIT ON DEC. 31
  • GEITHNER: WILL USE `EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES’ TO AVOID DEBT LIMIT
  • TREASURY: SPECIAL MEASURES TO MAKE $200 BLN ROOM UNDER LIMIT
  • GEITHNER: $200 BLN TO LAST TWO MONTHS IN `NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES’
  • GEITHNER: TAX, SPENDING `UNCERTAINTY’ MAKES DURATION NOT CLEAR
  • GEITHNER SAYS ALL MEASURES HAVE BEEN USED IN PRIOR IMPASSES
  • GEITHNER OUTLINES PLANS IN LETTER TO SENATE MAJORITY LEADER

So since America’s dysfunctional congress failed to “rise above” the Fiscal Cliff, it at least succeeded to “rise above” the debt ceiling. One out of two is not too bad…

To summarize: debt ceiling hit December 31, just in time for the no deal on the Fiscal Cliff, and then the Treasury will proceed to defund various Government retirement accounts for the next two and a half months, when sometime in March the true deadline to getting a joint solution on both the Cliff and the Debt Ceiling will becoming unextendable as the alternative is truly unthinkable: living within its means!

In other words, as we have said all along, the real deadline for a Fiscal Cliff is not December 31, but that day in March when all further debt ceiling extension avenues are exhausted.

The question therefore is – will the 2 months of America living under self-made austerity be enough to push it into recession.

And now cue flashbacks to August 2011

Roger Wiegand, the Editor and co-partner of Trader Tracks, recently made a few rather scary predictions about the global financial markets, and had some interesting comments about geopolitics and the US Presidency as well:

“President Obama will sign a flurry of executive orders enhancing new, onerous and bureaucratic controls enabling the EPA to further his green agenda and curtail the so-called carbon energy products. This wastes billions of taxpayer funds and further destroys carbon energy, driving carbon energy prices ever higher. The USA is headed for $5 per gallon of gas and Europe already has nearly $10 per gallon in some places. It’s going to get a lot worse but this won’t last more than 2-3 years as we will get a hyperinflationary blow-off.

A trio of very negative executive orders might be signed giving the UN more and very expansive powers over American citizens. Those could be (1) new global taxes on the Internet, (2) global gun control including the United States and (3) new taxes on all financial transactions worldwide to steal money to further the United Nations One World Order agenda. Eventually, after the World War, the UN will be permanently destroyed and with it the nightmare of the One World Order.

The Fiscal Cliff situation will go to a scary standoff and then be addressed with an executive order to extend the Bush Tax cuts temporarily for one year or less. Option two would be the Speaker of the House caving in to presidential pressures offering new taxes on incomes of $250,000+ and none on those with lesser incomes. The lesser incomes would get more taxes anyway, but they will be stealth taxes buried in other unrelated legislation.

The global stock markets will suffer a 10-12% correction in Q-1 2013 but not a crash. The harder crash is more likely to come in May 2013 or September-October 2013. The so-called Big One could take down stocks 50-90%. A -90% wipeout would not be unheard of… it has happened before.

The US Dollar will rise to at least Index 84.50 and perhaps to 88.50 in 2013 as the Euro skids first down to 120.00 major support and then falls further to 115.50 after a few weeks at the 120.00 level. The Euro Currency will collapse when Germany starts trading their old Deutsche Mark in parallel alongside the Euro. Lower Euro supports are 112.50, 110.00, 108.00 and then 80.00. If it gets below 108.00, we think the Euro is toast.

Inflation will gradually build in early 2013 and then race ever faster. Food prices will rise +50% in 2013 on agricultural shortages by farmers, but mostly on a sinking US Dollar and war.

A conflict will break out in the Middle East between Israel and several of her neighboring nations. Oil prices will skyrocket. We do not see nuclear war in the Middle East but rather widespread violence using heavy weapons, drones, missiles and bunker-busting mammoth bombs.

This conflict, if unchecked, could go right to the front door of Saudi Arabia. Should this occur, there would be a wider war involving the USA to protect Saudi oil fields. The Straits of Hormuz will be mined by Iran, which will slow oil tanker shipments. The US Navy will clear the waters by using minesweepers. We can see 5-10 Middle Eastern nations all fighting in unison in this conflict with a great loss of life.

President Obama is not skilled in the art of running a war and the USA generals will take over some decision-making authority into their own hands creating an outrage in the Congress and the Senate. These actions will be hidden at first but later come into the news based upon the military who have taken precautions protecting America and her citizens. This could further add to Obama’s resignation from the Presidency.

On the streets in America next year, expect a long hot summer of joblessness, urban rioting, violence and a major crime wave from the unemployed. The larger worry for authorities is the amount of guns in the streets including stolen heavy weapons from National Guard armories. Some years ago a rail freight car of 10,000 .22 automatic rifles was hijacked near the Mexican border. These were destined for sale to a major department store chain. Who has them? Who knows? The stocks and company sales of two major handgun manufacturers were reported up nearly 10% last week on stronger demand/sales. Consumers are getting worried about security.

The current depression could last until 2017 or even 2024 depending upon wars and political cycles. There was a nasty depression in the USA in 1842-1843. This was the beginning of several decades of markets mayhem including the American Civil War and a series of rolling recessions/depressions lasting until 1896. The worst of the market dislocations ran from 1873 to 1896, a nearly 20-year depression. Some say there were intermittent recoveries but we say they did not amount to much. Those were very bad years in the United States. We see the same stuff repeating all over again in this cycle.

The worst of the worst, in our opinion, will hit us in 2013 to 2016 with depression and world war. This is not end of the world stuff but a really ugly historical re-run. The so-called Mayan event next month on December 21, 2012 is not a world-ender, but a new and better beginning…however, the following three years will be a severe adjustment period.

The Obama administration and other world leaders are at the end of their fiscal rope. They are simply out of tools and ideas to extend and pretend any longer. The early gasps and rasping breathes from the bigger bond markets are coming down right now in Japan. The bond markets are skidding ever faster and 2013 will usher in higher interest rates breaking the central bankers.

Even a one or two percent bond yield increase will crush these nations as the debt burden skyrockets on the outstanding paper.

Watch for the rating agencies like Moody’s and Fitch to begin a series of rolling downgrades further smashing these bankers. The USA will get a new debt downgrade in 2013. Their own little print and spend games will turn on them, wrecking hundreds of banks over the next three years.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada Jumat pekan terakhir 2012 kemarin bursa saham AS anjlok seketika saat memperoleh indikasi bahwa kedua partai politik besar AS tidak akan mencapai kesepakatan mengenai fiscal cliff.  Ini mungkin akan menjadi awal buruk menjelang masuk tahun 2013?

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com memiliki pandangan lebih rinci tentang ‘Penurunan besar bursa AS tersebut dan membuat perbandingan yang sangat menarik dengan diskusi debt-ceiling AS tahun 2011 sebelumnya:

“Finally, the market realizes that it was the patsy all along. This is what a real cliff looks like:

Of course, none of this news to any of our readers. From November 13:

Once again, it will be up to the market, just like last August, just like October of 2008, to implode and to shock Congress into awakening and coming up with a compromise of sorts.

But please listen to all those “expert” political journalists, reporters and pundits, who said all is well and not to worry about anything. After all they had pretty slideshows and lots of click bait to make you believe they know stuff.

The good news: ES can only drop 5%, or limit down, on Sunday night when the market gets more of the same.

The better news: SPY is open late tonight, long after ES closes.

And it is different this time (from the debt ceiling debate of last year) as investors have been herded into risk assets en masse by an over-zealous Fed head…

Where it likely is not at all be different, is how much further the market will have to plunge to “extract” a deal from Congress… roughly another 15-20% lower. Which with a near record margin debt on the NYSE will become quite a sight to see.”

Di tengah maraknya isu fiscal cliff AS ini, berikut saya persembahkan sejumlah gambar yang dapat menjelaskan situasi tersebut dengan lebih baik:

Yang terakhir tak kalah penting adalah sebuah Holiday Exercise Routine:

Selamat Tahun Baru, Semoga Tambah Sejahtera!

Dibuat Tanggal 31 Desember 2012


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Market Outlook 2013 (Bagian 2)

December 31st, 2012 No comments

It may not be fiddling while Rome is burning but it isn’t that far off that course. In the end, I suspect, we will pass the deadlines and find ourselves in trouble.  I say this because to date all we are discussing is who to tax and we have not made one serious effort to confront the social programs that have elected people but which the country cannot afford. It is not that complicated at its core; we cannot afford the entitlements That we have legislated and so the nation must, like any household, man up to what we can and cannot afford and get on with it.”

-Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box

Meskipun banyak yang sudah mengetahui bahwa hal terpenting adalah defisit dan BUKAN fiscal cliff, para investor masih tetap menanti hasil perundingan para petinggi Republik dan Demokrat menjelang tutup tahun 2012.

Apakah perundingan fiscal cliff tersebut akan sukses atau tidak, satu hal yang harus diingat adalah bahwa pajak memang hampir pasti akan naik secara dramatis, sementara pembelanjaan kemungkinan akan diturunkan sedikit saja.

Pada gilirannya, besarnya beban pajak akan menekan perekonomian dan menyebabkan turunnya pendapatan perusahaan dan harga saham sekaligus. Seperti yang sering saya peringatkan: forewarned is forearmed, maka saya sarankan untuk melakukan tindakan pencegahan sebelum terlambat.

Dalam rangka mempersiapkan segala sesuatu yang mungkin terjadi tahun mendatang, mari kita lanjutkan bahasan dalam laporan saya sebelumnya.

Tulisan pertama, yang berjudul 11 Shocking Forecasts for 2013, masuk dalam kategori yang HARUS DIBACA karena berisi sejumlah estimasi luar biasa yang seharusnya Anda perhatikan jika menganggap diri Anda seorang investor.

Tulisan tersebut diedarkan di Money and Markets pada 11 Desember lalu, dan ini merupakan ringkasan transkrip Online Conference dengan Charles Goyette, Larry Edelson, Martin D. Weiss, Mike Larson dan Nilus Mattive:

Martin Weiss: Joining me today are …

Charles Goyette, editor of our Freedom and Prosperity Letter, New York Times bestselling author of The Dollar Meltdown and Red and Blue and Broke All Over …

Mike Larson, the highly acclaimed editor of our Safe Money Report, the ONE man I know who accurately warned about the great housing bust, credit crisis and Great Recession of 2007-2009 …

Larry Edelson, editor of our Real Wealth Report, recently nominated as a top analyst by CNBC Asia, and one of the very first analysts to forecast the super boom in gold, oil and other commodities that began in 2001. Plus …

Nilus Mattive, the editor of Income Superstars and author of The Standard & Poor’s Guide for the New Investor; the man who recommended dividend stocks which have given his subscribers the chance to produce total returns of 94% … 108% … 117% … and up to 161%.

Nilus, lots of investors are afraid of big tax hikes on dividends with the fiscal cliff. So they’re selling dividend stocks. What do you think about that?

Nilus Mattive: This is precisely the kind of thing that has helped us make even more money in dividend stocks in recent years.

Martin: OK. Be sure to tell us more about that before the end of this session. But first, I want to begin with you, Charles. Many people said the election would change the course of the nation. But you were not among them, were you?

Charles Goyette: Absolutely not! Our forecast, which we broadcast to every one of your readers, was that Obama would win and that nothing would change. In fact, no matter who is in the White House, America is still more than $16 trillion in debt, and those debts are still piling up at the rate of more than $1 trillion per year.

The U.S. economy is still sputtering and the Federal Reserve is still printing unlimited amounts of paper dollars as far as the eye can see.

So nothing has changed … except for one thing: Time! The clock has continued to tick away and the fiscal cliff is now dramatically closer — only weeks away!

Martin: How do you see this unfolding and what are the likely consequences?

Charles: We see two possible scenarios: Scenario A is the “fake deal” scenario. Washington does what it does best — deception. They come up with something that they call “a compromise,” even maybe a “grand solution.” Meanwhile, all the really critical issues of spending and taxes are again put on hold, postponed for another day.

Martin: Is this the more likely scenario in your view?

Charles: Yes. And that’s my first forecast:

Forecast #1
At first, Washington may try to deceive the public with a fake, cosmetic deal that utterly fails to address the real fiscal cliff.

And don’t be surprised if it produces a brief relief rally in the markets,
even some initial euphoria could be expected.

Martin: You mean we just go back to business as usual and the fiscal cliff goes away? It sounds too easy to be true.

Charles: It IS too easy to be true.

First, because it’s an insult to the intelligence of thousands of analysts and millions of investors all over the world. These people are not stupid. They open the package with all the fancy wrapping and they look inside. They see nothing — no substance, no real agreement — nothing except still another attempt to kick the can down the road.

Second, it’s a slap in the face to the rating agencies. The last time around, the rating agencies said, point blank, that they’d let Washington kick the can down the road only once. But this would be the second time they do it in this cycle.

Martin: The first time they kicked the can down the road was after the great debt ceiling debate of 2011.

Charles: Right. And they kicked it to yearend 2012 — to now. So NOW was supposed to be the date of responsibility. Now was supposed to be the final, final day of reckoning. If Washington blows it away again, ratings downgrades will be swift and severe. Bond markets will fall. Interest rates will surge!

Martin: What about Scenario B?

Charles: In Scenario B, gridlock prevails and Washington blows the yearend deadline entirely. Our government simply fails to act. In the end, Republicans and Democrats prove that they are more married to their ideology than committed to our country’s future.

Even as the ship of state sails off the fiscal cliff, both play a fatal game of “chicken” with the U.S. economy … the stock market … and with your money.

Nothing gets done. All or nearly all of the automatic spending cuts and tax hikes go into effect on January 1. America plunges off the fiscal cliff and back into recession.

Martin: What about a Scenario C? By some miracle, the Democrats and Republicans set aside their egos. They abandon their respective ideologies and end the political demagoguery that so sickens the American people. They get serious about solving America’s fiscal catastrophe. They work out a middle-of-the-road plan that includes spending cuts and tax increases.

Charles: That’s possible, but it leads us the next forecast.

Forecast #2
Even if Washington does cut a so-called “major deficit deal,” our nation’s debt will continue to grow by leaps and bounds!

Why? Because when they say, “cut spending,” what they really mean is cutting the increases in spending that are in the pipeline.

Because when they say “cut deficits,” what they really mean is to cut deficit projections, mostly in far-out, future years.

Because the people who got us into this mess are not capable of getting us out of this mess. Any solution that comes out of Washington will increase government spending.

Martin: How will we know?

Charles: We’ll know because any deal they cut will still require a big increase in the debt ceiling.

Martin: Still, many people on the Street seem to think that any kind of deal would be nirvana — that it would spark a big rally in the market. Mike, what do you think about that theory?

Mike Larson: Maybe for a short while. But stop and think about it for a moment.

To the degree that they DO make any kind of serious dent in the deficit, we’ll still be looking at big spending cuts and tax hikes.

Martin: Please explain what that does to the economy?

Mike: First, set aside the fiscal cliff for a second and look at this: Company after company has recently disappointed on earnings, revenue, or both. Not only that, they have also forecast lousy future results.

I’m talking about a “Who’s Who” of corporate America — everyone from IBM to Caterpillar to 3M to FedEx. We just came off a quarter where corporate earnings fell from a year ago by more than 2% — that was the worst performance in three years.

Now, add in the impact of the fiscal cliff and you see a mediocre business picture turning into a horrible business outlook.

The undeniable truth is there is simply no way we can cut the deficit without massive pain. And yet, this is precisely the kind of financial housekeeping we must have if we are ever to emerge from this economic malaise.

Martin: What are the odds this will happen — that they will actually reach a meaningful deal to cut the deficit?

Mike: Very small, unless something shocking happens.

Martin: Such as …

Mike: That answer is in this forecast …

Forecast #3
It will take a collapse in the financial markets
to SHOCK Washington into any major action!

Unless you get a market collapse, unless politicians are utterly forced to do something, they will continue to dicker around and try to kick the can down the road.

Martin: This has happened before.

Mike: Absolutely! It happened in late September of 2008. That’s when Washington couldn’t agree on a bank bailout package and the law actually was voted down in the house. The market suffered its worst point decline in all history for a single day. But after the market crashed, they suddenly came together and passed it into law.

Charles: As the late Senator Everett Dirkson once said, “When I feel the heat, I see the light.” And when the market speaks, they will definitely feel the heat!

Martin: OK. In Scenario A, we get a fake deal — kicking the can down the road. In Scenario B, they blow the deadline. And in Scenario C, if the market gives them shock therapy, then they finally come to their senses and reach a bargain. But in any scenario, the nation’s debts continue to grow rapidly and the economy is hit hard.

Mike: Which leads me to this forecast …

Forecast #4
We will see a giant roller-coaster, first bringing deflation
in most assets, followed by massive asset inflation.

It’s a cycle we’ve seen twice already in just the last dozen years — the tech bubble, then the tech wreck … the housing bubble, then the housing bust.

And with each bust, we saw a major deflation of asset values, followed by massive asset inflation.

Now, we are going to see another, similar cycle … but the bubble that’s about to pop is none other than the government bubble — governments all over the world forced to retrench whether they like it or not. Whether they do it voluntarily or in response to market shocks, whether they do it with cowardice or courage, the result is the same.

Martin: Some people think the Fed can overcome everything — the Fed can keep everything afloat — by just printing more money. Is that possible?

Mike: Let me answer that question with this forecast:

Forecast #5
Bernanke is going to TRY to sustain the economy
with more money printing. But he is going to fail!

Bernanke himself has said that the Fed couldn’t even begin to print enough money to avert disaster if Congress fails to act. And look at these facts:

* The Fed’s first round of money printing — QE1 — drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2,377 points over a span of about 16 months.

* QE2 was good for just 1,199 points and only about 8 months of rally. The interesting thing there is, all of that went up in smoke within a couple of weeks, thanks to the debt ceiling debacle!

* Then, just a couple of months ago, Bernanke really thought he was firing the biggest bazooka of all by launching QE-Infinity — saying he was going to print money forever. But guess how long that rally lasted! Just one day!

Charles: Money printing is like taking heroin. The first time a fellow takes it, he gets a powerful rush. But each time thereafter, the addict has to take more and more to get the same high. And the longer you keep it up, the more painful withdrawal becomes.

Martin: Larry, here’s the scenario and the 64 thousand — I mean 64 trillion — dollar question: At some point soon, Bernanke sees he’s running into the law of diminishing returns. He sees that his money printing is simply not working anymore.

So he’s at a fork in the road: He can continue doing the same thing. He can give up and stop. Or he can print even more! What should he do?

Larry Edelson: What should he do or what will he do?

Martin: Tell us both.

Larry: He should give it up, of course. But what he will do is another matter entirely. Again, like the rest of Washington, until something shocking happens, until he is forced to stop, he won’t stop, which brings me to this forecast:

Forecast #6
Bernanke will not only continue printing money,
he will actually accelerate the printing presses.

Martin: Larry, we have warned that this will have serious consequences — for inflation, the dollar, the bond market. But why have these consequences not yet exploded into the forefront. How has Bernanke gotten away with printing so much money with impunity?

Larry: I don’t agree that there have been no consequences. But I agree that we have barely begun to see the real impact — because most of the trillions that the Fed has already printed is still sitting on bank balance sheets.

And most of that money is actually being parked back with the Fed, where the Fed is paying banks interest. It’s dead money, going nowhere — it’s not circulating in the economy.

Here’s the key: In 2013, Bernanke can start to change that by paying zero interest, or even by charging banks interest to park that money with the Fed. Next ..

Forecast #7
The printed money will drive prices sharply higher
and absolutely decimate the U.S. dollar.

There’s no question in my mind that the dollar will then resume its long-term bear market, which will ultimately cause it to lose its reserve status.

And there’s also no question in my mind that, once the velocity of money picks up and trillions of dollars are flooding the economy, we’ll finally see the next leg up in commodities, which will be the biggest one yet.

Martin: What happens then, Mike?

Mike: That’s when you’ll see my next prediction come true …

Forecast #8
Bond prices will collapse as interest rates shoot higher.
As a result we will get still another shock to the economy!

This is the only kind of shock that could ultimately shake some sense into the Fed — maybe even force the Fed to slow down the money printing.

Martin: This is very rare. But I know it’s possible because I was there when it happened once — back in 1980. It was during the Carter Administration, and everyone said Carter is absolutely incapable of dealing with its deficits and with inflation.

And they were right … until the markets, especially bond markets, collapsed. Then everything changed. Then, Carter had no choice. And he did what no Democrat has ever done before. He slammed the economy hard — just to tame the inflation.

Mike: And just remember this: For generations, Americans have counted on the government for handouts, bailouts and easy money, especially in the last few years. What happens when the government is forced to switch its regime to tough love!? It’s a bombshell. It’s the same kind of shock we’ve seen recently in Spain and Greece and elsewhere in Europe.

Charles: No matter what, this is quite literally the end game for Washington. For the U.S. economy, for the dollar, for the stock market.

Martin: What does this mean for gold?

Charles: Gold always sets up shop at the crossroads of history, and when we reach those crossroads in the year ahead, it will be evident to everybody. When you’re talking about the end game — de-facto state bankruptcy … the intentional destruction of the currency … the collapse of the economy … class warfare … social unrest … you’re talking about the perfect storm for gold.

Larry: All this money printing and euphoria are like a pent-up pressure cooker for gold.

When that money begins flowing into the economy, THAT’S when it will drive hard asset prices through the ceiling. Gold, silver and oil prices will double, then double again.

But listen carefully to my warning: We could still see a big setback first — for all the reasons we’ve talked about here today — the sinking global economy and the impact of budget cuts all over the world.

Martin: So you also see the same roller coaster that Mike talked about. First a big setback. Then a big bull market.

Larry: I do. Bonds are a bubble begging to get popped. Today’s low interest rates are an aberration. The markets hate these kinds of imbalances and always correct them.

So I agree with Mike. I’m first looking for a major correction in stocks and commodities, including gold to some degree. That’s going to shock a lot of people. And that’s when Washington will panic. That’s when they’ll do everything in their power to force banks to ramp up lending in order to fight the crisis.

At some point, a lot of that money will flow back into stocks, of course. As investors see prices plunge, many will pick up some screaming bargains. But a huge amount of it will also flow into mankind’s most time-honored hedges against inflation and uncertainty — gold and silver.

Martin: Care to put some numbers on that forecast?

Larry: Sure.

Forecast #9
Gold is going to $5,000 —
almost a triple from today’s prices.

Forecast #10
Silver should surge to well over
$150 an ounce — more than a four-fold gain!

Forecast #11
Oil prices should reach nearly $200 per barrel,
more than a double from current levels!

But remember! Although you should always have a solid core position, it’s not yet time to load up on gold.

And it’s not yet time to buy other commodities either. It’s vital that you first wait for the setback and for my next major buy signal. That’s how to play the giant roller coaster of asset deflation and asset inflation that Mike and I talked about.

Martin: How much of a core position in gold are you recommending?

Larry: I recommend at least 5% to 10% of your liquid cash — that’s a minimum. But first, use what little time we have left to get your house in order; free up as much cash as you can.

Second, wait for my buy signal to buy more gold and jump back in to commodities.

In the long run, what will matter the most is that you have the peace of mind … the inflation protection … and the profits that I think will flow to gold investors in the months and years ahead.

Martin: Mike, Larry recommends a big cash position. Do you agree?

Mike: Of course! It is the number one step everyone must take to prepare for this first big roll of the roller coaster — asset deflation.

Martin: But most people can’t sell all their assets that could be deflating.

Mike: Nor do they have to. Instead, they can buy some select investments that are great deflation hedges, such as inverse ETFs.

Inverse ETFs help protect you against losses from deflation allowing you to continue investing very selectively in the highest quality assets that are most likely to outperform in good times or bad.

Martin: OK. Let’s talk about some of those high quality assets. Nilus, throughout all this, you’ve been mostly silent. And throughout this whole process, many of our listeners have been asking: “What do I do for more income?” They’re sick of near-zero yields.

Nilus: I look back on the last dozen or so years, and I see two massive bear markets in stocks.

But I also see huge buying opportunities in the one kind of investment that has offered very high yields with relative safety: Solid dividend paying stocks.

So yes, we have big fiscal troubles. And yes, we could see a massive roller coaster in 2013. But it’s a two-way roller coaster. It goes down, but it goes UP, just like the big bears and bulls of the last 12 years.

The key is, you can use the market corrections, regardless of how big or small, to continually grow your income.

 

Martin: OK. So let’s say this team is right and we do get a major setback in stocks. Where do our viewers invest — and why?

Nilus: During and after market declines, investors flock to more conservative companies, especially the ones in less cyclical parts of the market. For example, tobacco companies, beverage makers, consumer products companies and utilities. The kind of companies that produce things that people have to buy no matter what.

And they tend to really focus on the very best blue chip names that pay solid dividends — the companies that pay you even when the overall stock market is declining.

Even right now, many of these companies are paying double, triple, four times as much as you’d get from 10-year Treasuries.

Look at one of my long-standing recommendations, for example: Altria. Its current yield is about 5.7%, compared to a 10-year Treasury yield of 1.6%.

One more important point: We typically see new money rush into conservative dividend stocks during times of crisis — especially when the crisis is hitting government-backed investments. So I think you could see big gains in share prices on top of the income they have reliably paid through good times and bad, for decades.

This is exactly what happened with Altria, the stock I just mentioned.

I first recommended it back in 2007. And in this particular case, my timing was NOT good. And yet, today, that position is showing an open total return — including dividends and appreciation — of 93%.

Martin: You recommended it at a bad time and now it’s almost doubled?

Nilus: Right. And later, when this stock suffered a setback — just like the decline we’re starting to see now — I recommended investors buy MORE, and on that follow-up recommendation, we’re looking at an open total return of 161%!

I have recommended others, too. Like the chocolate maker, Hershey. We’re already sitting on a 117% total return from that position — in just two years’ time.

All of these stocks are great examples of solid dividend payers that tend to do well no matter what’s happening in the world.

Martin: Yes, Nilus.

And everyone, the conclusions from these 11 forecasts is clear: 2013 is going to be a wild ride, perhaps the wildest any of us has ever seen.

We have the specter of the fiscal cliff … of a major correction in the stock market … of the bursting of the largest bond bubble in history … of a rapidly deteriorating dollar and soaring gold, silver, oil and food prices.

We have the prospect of asset deflation creating huge buying opportunities, followed by asset inflation bringing huge profit opportunities!

At a time like this, my personal mission is to do everything in my power help you preserve and grow your money in the tumultuous year ahead to see you through the violent convulsions we see ahead in the economy … in the stock market … and in gold.”

Berikutnya adalah Graham Summers, seorang Chief Market Strategist pada Phoenix Capital Research dan salah seorang pengamat pasar finansial terbaik.

Dalam sebuah artikelnya di awal Desember 2012, dia mencoba mengkalisifikasi instrumen-instrumen investasi yang paling banyak memperoleh keuntungan dari masa jabatan kedua presiden AS, Barrack Obama.

Berikut adalah rekomendasinya yang diikuti dengan saran investasi yang praktis:

“During its first term, the Obama Administration thus far has proven itself in favor of increased Government control and Central Planning. That is, the general trend throughout the last four years has been towards greater nationalization of industries (first finance, then automakers and now healthcare and insurance), as well as greater reliance on our Central Bank to maintain our finances.

Now that Obama’s won a second term, there is no indication that this trend will end. We must recall that regardless of what is said, it was Obama who re-appointed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. And it was under Obama’s watch that QE lite, QE 2, Operation Twist 2, and now QE 3 were launched. It was also under Obama’s watch that the US reached a Debt to GDP ratio of over 100%.

Indeed, at no point in history has the US had this much debt during peacetime. And the fact that we’re overspending by this amount at the exact time that other countries are showing signs of shunning US Treasuries is a formula for disaster.

With that in mind, it is highly likely that the US will enter at the very minimum a debt crisis and quite possibly a currency crisis during Obama’s second term. In preparation for this, investors will want to focus on the following investment themes:

1) Inflation hedges based on continued spending and money printing.

2) Gold and Silver as an alternate currency based on the US Dollar falling further.

3) Productive assets (foreign real estate, apartments in specific markets, businesses, essentially anything that produces cash).

4) Preparing for an eventual US Debt Default.

Regarding #1, there are several areas to consider. They are:

1) Precious metals (bullion)

2) Natural resources, particularly timber

3) (last and least) Blue chip businesses or companies with pricing power that can maintain profits during periods of inflation

As far as precious metals go, you need to:

1) Own Bullion

2) Store it yourself (not in a bank)

I do not recommend owning a paper gold-based ETF because frankly the custodial risk is high (that is, there’s no telling if the Gold is even there or who would get it if the ETF is liquidated).

In comparison, physical bullion, stored outside a bank, is literally money in hand. You know where it is and you can find out what it’s worth. Compare that to a Gold ETF in which you’re hoping that the bank actually has the Gold and that it could actually send it to you if you requested (fat chance).

In terms of actual gold coins, there are three coins that comprise the bulk of the bullion market. They are Kruggerands, Canadian Maple Leafs, and American Gold Eagles. I’ve been told to avoid Maple Leafs by both a trader and a bullion dealer as they can easily be scratched which damages the gold and reduces the coin’s value.

In terms of silver, the easiest way to get it is via pre-1965 coins (often termed “junk” silver). You can also get silver one-ounce rounds (coin-like medallions) and 10-ounce bars. Or you can buy Silver Eagles coins.

I cannot tell you which dealer to go with, but look for someone who’s been dealing for years (not a newbie). You should always ask for references from the dealer (former clients you can talk to about their purchases/ experiences).

Some warning signs to avoid are dealers who try to store your bullion. Never, I repeat, never store your bullion with someone else. Always store it yourself. Also, be sure to talk to the dealer for some time and ask him or her numerous questions about the industry, the coins, etc. (feel free to test him or her on the information I’ve provided you with e.g. the three most liquid Gold coins, etc.). If they can answer everything you ask in a knowledgeable fashion, their references check out, and you verify everything they say with a 3rd party, you should be OK.

In terms of other natural resources, the best assets to own are the actual resources themselves. However, not everyone can go out and buy timberland or a lead mine. So this means looking at various commodity and natural resource ETFs.

As far as stocks go, I suggest looking at large cap blue chips stocks that are able to pass on rising costs to consumers (at least in part). I’m talking about well-defined brands that offer goods and services which consumers are willing to pay more for as prices rise due to increase operational costs and commodity prices.

This inevitably leads to defensive non-cyclical industries: tobacco, beverages, medicine, energy, etc.”

Di akhir laporan ini, ada sebuah cerita menarik yang saya peroleh dari www.millersmoney.com:

KETCHUP: A woman was trying hard to get the ketchup out of its container.  During her struggle the phone rang, so she asked her four-year-old daughter to answer the phone.  “Grandma, Mommy can’t come to the phone to talk to you right now; she’s hitting the bottle.”

DRESS-UP: A little girl was watching her parents dress for a party.  When she saw her dad donning his tuxedo, she warned, “Daddy, you shouldn’t wear that suit.”

“And why not, darling?”

“Daddy, you know that it always gives you a headache the next morning.”

Dibuat Tanggal 28 Desember 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Market Outlook 2013 (Bagian 1)

December 31st, 2012 No comments

“Unfortunately, the truth is that the U.S. economy is steadily getting worse, and 2013 is not looking very promising at all right now.  Our entire economy is a giant mirage.  Our prosperity has been purchased by stealing from the future.  A few people have been warning that we have completely destroyed our future in the process, but both political parties just continue to do it and the mainstream media just continues to cheer them on.  At some point this con game will end and this economic mirage will disappear.  When that happens, millions of people all over this country are going to become very angry and very desperate.  I hope that you have a plan for what you will do when that happens.”

-The Economic Collapse Blog

Kini saatnya investor melakukan evaluasi tahun ke belakang dan mulai mempersiapkan dan/atau menyesuaikan strategi investasi untuk tahun mendatang.  Untuk membantu Anda, saya akan memperlihatkan sejumlah prediksi dari berbagai analis, yang setidaknya akan memberikan Anda pandangan mengenai apa yang akan terjadi di tahun mendatang.

Saya berjanji tidak akan mengecewakan Anda karena saya memiliki banyak laporan yang disertai oleh saran untuk tindak lanjut dan pandangan yang luas.  Jadi dalam beberapa laporan ke depan saya memiliki banyak analisa menarik untuk Anda baca yang akan memberikan ide transaksi potensial.

Laporan pertama datang dari kepala ekonom Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen, yang berjudul Outrageous Predictions 2013:

“Our biggest concern here on the cusp of 2013 is the current odd combination of extreme complacency about the risks presented by extend-and-pretend macro policy making and rapidly accelerating social tensions that could threaten political and eventually financial market stability.

Before everyone labels us ‘doomers’ and pessimists, let us point out that, economically, we already have wartime financial conditions: the debt burden and fiscal deficits of the western world are at levels not seen since the end of World War II. We may not be fighting in the trenches, but we may soon be fighting in the streets.

To continue with the current extend-and-pretend policies is to continue to disenfranchise wide swaths of our population – particularly the young – those who will be taking care of us as we are entering our doddering old age. We would not blame them if they felt a bit less than generous. In other words, the kind of confrontation we risk is not a military one, but rather a struggle between the mistreated young generation and the old fogies, who think they are entitled to all of a society’s wealth and to do everything to defend the status quo.

All of this leads us to believe that society will tilt increasingly towards more radicalism in Europe in 2013, where the far left and far right will both gain ground by appealing to the desperately disenfranchised voters who have very little to lose in responding to their messages.

The macro economy has no ammunition left for improving sentiment. We are all reduced to praying for a better day tomorrow, as we realize that the current macro policies are like pushing on a string because there is no true price discovery in the market anymore. We have all been reduced to a bunch of central bank watchers, only ever looking for the next liquidity fix, like some kind of horde of heroin addicts. We have a pro forma capitalism with de facto market totalitarianism. Can we have our free markets back please?

As we leave 2012, the consensus call is for the S&P 500 to rise 10 percent next year, and not a single analyst sees the market down in 2013 – I do not remember a similar level of complacency since the year 2000, when everyone I knew quit their job in the hope of making a fortune day trading. One of the things we can learn from history is that we rarely ever take its lessons to heart.

10 Outrageous Predictions

1. DAX plunges 33 percent to 5,000 (Peter Garnry)

The leading German stock market index DAX was one of the world’s best performing stock markets in 2012 as Europe’s economic juggernaut continued to fare better than most Euro zone countries, despite the crisis on the continent and weaker activity in China. This will all change in 2013 as China’s economic slowdown continues, thereby putting a halt to Germany’s industrial expansion. This causes large price declines in industrial stocks due to stagnating revenue and declining profits at major industry players such as Siemens, BASF and Daimler. This market stress deflates consumer confidence and as a result domestic demand, highlighted by weak retail sales. With domestic demand failing to offset weakening exports, approval ratings for Chancellor Angela Merkel plunge ahead of the German election in the third quarter, and ultimately the deteriorated economic situation obstructs her re-election attempt. With a weak economy and uncertainty about a new government, the DAX index declines to 5,000, down 33 percent for the year.

2. Nationalization of major Japanese electronics companies (Peter Garnry)

Japan’s electronics industry, once the glory of the ‘Land of the Rising Sun’, enters a terminal phase after being outmatched by the roaring South Korean electronics industry, with Samsung the winner. The core driver of the industry’s decline is a too domestically oriented approach which has led to a high fixed cost base due to Japan’s extreme living costs, pensions and the strong yen. With combined losses of USD 30 billion in the last twelve months ending September 30, 2012, for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony combined, creditworthiness deteriorates greatly and the Japanese government nationalizes the electronics industry in déjà-vu style – similar to the government bailout of the US automobile industry. There has been no nominal growth in Japan’s gross domestic product in eight out of the last 16 years and as a consequence of the bailouts, the Bank of Japan formalizes nominal GDP targeting. The BoJ expands its balance sheet to almost 50 percent of nominal GDP to spur inflation and weaken the yen. As a result, USDJPY goes to 90.

3. Soybeans to rise by 50 percent (Ole S. Hansen)

Bad weather during 2012 caused havoc to global crop production and we fear this will continue to play an unwanted role during the 2013 planting and growing season. The US soybean ending stock, which improved slightly ultimo 2012, is still precariously tight at a nine-year low.

This tightness leaves the price of new crop soybeans, illustrated by the January 2014 contract on Chicago Board of Trade futures, exposed to any new weather disruptions, either in the US or South America (which is now the world’s largest producing region) or in China (the world’s largest consumer and biggest importer). Increased demand for biofuel, in this case soybean oil to cover biodiesel mandates, will also play its part in exposing the price to spikes should worries about supply resurface. Speculative investors, who reduced their soy sector exposure by two-thirds towards the end of 2012, will be ready to re-enter and this combination of technical and fundamental buying could potentially push the price higher by as much as 50 percent.

4. Gold corrects to USD 1,200 per ounce (Ole S. Hansen)

The strength of the US economic recovery in 2013 surprises the market and especially financial investors in gold, who in recent years have come to dominate the market thereby making the yellow metal extremely sensitive to expectations for the global interest rate environment. The changed outlook for the US economy combined with a lack of pick-up in physical demand for the precious metal from China and India, which both struggle with weak growth and rising unemployment, trigger a major round of gold liquidation. This is particularly a result of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce or completely cease further purchases of mortgage and treasury bonds. Hedge funds move to the sell side and once the important USD 1,500 level is broken a massive round of long liquidation follows, especially by investors in Exchange Traded Funds who have been accumulating record holdings of gold. Gold slumps to USD 1,200 before central banks, especially in emerging economies, eventually step in to take advantage of lower prices.

5. WTI crude hits USD 50 (Ole S. Hansen)

US energy production continues to rise beyond expectations, primarily brought about by advanced production techniques, such as in the shale oil sector. US production of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rises strongly and with inventory levels already at a 30-year high and export options limited, WTI crude oil prices come under renewed selling pressure and slump towards USD 50 per barrel. Weaker than expected global growth compounds this process triggering a surprise drop in global consumption of oil and the price of Brent Crude, the global benchmark. The supply side, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, reacts too late to this challenge as its members – desperate for revenues to pay for ever increasing public expenditure – hesitate to reduce production, so the supply glut rises even further.

6. USDJPY heads to 60.00 (John J. Hardy)

The Liberal Democratic Party comes back into power with its supposedly JPY-punishing agenda. But the reality of office, an uncooperative parliament and resistance from the Bank of Japan, mean that only half-measures are introduced. Meanwhile, the market has become over-enamoured with the potential for LDP leadership to bring about change and over-positioned for JPY weakness.

As the market loses its enthusiasm for global quantitative easing and risk appetite retrenches, the yen vaults to the fore again for a time as the world’s strongest currency due to deflation and repatriation of investments, and carry trades find themselves turned on their head. USDJPY heads as low as 60.00 and other JPY crosses head even more violently lower, ironically paving the way for the LDP government and the BoJ to reach for those more radical measures aimed at weakening the yen.

7. Hong Kong unpegs HKD from USD – re-pegs to RMB (John J. Hardy)

China deepens its political commitment to turn away from its managed peg to the US dollar. A big step in this direction is taken as Hong Kong moves to unpeg the Hong Kong dollar from the US dollar and repeg it to the Chinese renminbi. Other Asian countries show signs of wanting to follow suit in recognition of Asia’s shifting trade patterns and as national policies of accumulating endless USD reserves begin to erode. China also takes steps to increase RMB convertibility to grab a larger share of global trade – part of its large ambition to hold more sway over developing and frontier economies and commodity producers. This starts a process of wresting some of the advantages of holding a major reserve currency away from the US currency. RMB volatility increases as China loosens its grip on the currency’s movements, and Hong Kong quickly grows to become a major world currency trading centre and the most important centre for trading the RMB.

8. EURCHF breaks peg, touches 0.9500 (John J. Hardy)

European Union tail risks are re-aggravated – perhaps by the Italian election – or over the nature of Greece’s exit from the European Monetary Union and the worry that Spain and Portugal will follow suit. This sends capital flows surging into Switzerland once again and the Swiss National Bank and Swiss Government decide it is better to abandon the Swiss franc’s peg to the euro for a time, rather than let reserves accumulate to more than 100 percent of gross domestic product after they more than doubled to nearly two-thirds of GDP over the course of 2011 and 2012. Punitive measures and capital controls eventually brake the franc’s appreciation, but not until EUR CHF has touched a new all-time low below parity after having neared parity in 2011.

9. Spain takes one step closer to default as interest rates rise to 10 percent (Steen Jakobsen)

The market ignores the strains on the social fabric at the European Union periphery as input to EU systemic risk. This is particularly the case for Spain, where disposable income for over 1.8 million people is now less than EUR 400 a month and only 17 million out of a population of 47 million are employed. The unemployment rate is 25 percent and youth unemployment is alarmingly over 50 percent. On top of this, Catalonia is threatening to break away from Spain. While the European Central Bank and the EU are busy ‘selling the success’ of lower interest rates, Spain has seen total debt (public and private) explode to over 400 percent of its gross domestic product. Only Japan is in a worse state. With social tensions so high, the public sector simply cannot cut its public outlays further.

In 2013, Spanish sovereign debt is downgraded to junk and the social strain pushes Spain over the edge, seeing Spain reject the extend-and-pretend policies of EU officialdom. Yields rapidly increase after the downgrade and as an inevitable default is priced in.

10. 30-year US yield doubles in 2013 (Steen Jakobsen)

The 30-year US Treasury bond tells us that the expected return over the next 30 years is a real return of 0.4 percent (2.8% yield minus a break-even inflation of 2.4%). This cannot last in a world of forced inflation via infinite monetary printing and a possible downgrade of the US – if we fail to get structural fiscal reforms. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates low for longer but in 2013 this could be challenged by the zero interest rate policy which forces investors to leave fixed income to attain any yield. The global bond markets is USD 157 trillion versus a stock market valuation of USD 55 trillion (Source: Mapping global capital markets 2011 – McKinsey & Company). This means that for every one dollar in equity there are three in fixed income. With no return or even negative return (after costs) the substitution of bonds with stocks is appealing. For every 10 percent the mutual funds reduce their bond weightings the equity market will see 30 percent on net inflow – this could not only lead to higher US rates, but also be the beginning of decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds, which is long overdue.”

Source: Saxo Bank

Graham Summers, who is the Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research and among the most astute of today’s financial market observers, also has a somber outlook for the markets next year just like me.

Please find out why in the following article he wrote on December 17, 2012, which is titled “What 2013 Means For You, Your Portfolio and the Economy at Large”:

“Now that Obama has been re-elected, the BLS and other Government entities have begun to revise all of the positive data from before the November election downward. New jobless claims are back over 400,000. The amazing new home sales of 389,00 from October has been revised back down to 369,000. And a new record has been set for food stamp usage.

Things are only going to get worse for the following reasons:

1)   Increased taxes

2)   Increased regulation

Both of these items will result in people parking their cash rather than investing in the economy. Case in point, last week $132 BILLION was suddenly parked in bank savings accounts. That’s $132 billion (nearly 1% of US GDP) leaving the US economy and plunking into savings accounts.

To put this number into perspective, this is more than the amount of money that fled to the safety of savings accounts when LEHMAN FAILED.

In simple terms capital is going into hibernation. Without the investment of capital, the US economy will continue to weaken. Between this, the fiscal cliff, the earnings disaster for corporations and more, the market is set for a truly horrendous 2013.

Economic bell-weathers such as Caterpillar (green), Fed EX (red) and McDonalds (purple) are already discounting this in a big way.

However, we’re not quite there yet. Unless things come unhinged sooner due to some event in Europe, it will probably be the end of December (when the fiscal cliff will be hitting) before things really get messy in the markets.

I want to alert you to all of this in advance because I believe 2013 will be the year in which the BIG Collapse happens. As I’ve explained in earlier articles, it almost hit last summer. It was only through the ECB and Fed promising to buy everything that the system held together. But now even the Fed has stated outright that it cannot contain the impact of the fiscal cliff.

Please prepare well in advance. What’s coming next year will be worse than 2008. There is literally nothing positive I have to say about what I see. At the very least, we’ll face an economic slowdown on par with that of 2008 accompanied by a market crash. And this will happen at a time in which Central Banks will be totally out of ammo.

We get additional signs that those in charge are out of ideas in Europe. There the latest proposal for Greece is a debt buyback plan through which Greece would use €10 billion to buy some €30 billion worth of debt. Greece doesn’t have €10 billion lying around so it would likely tap a bailout fund (the EFSF or ESM) to do this. This means Greece would need (you guessed it) another bailout in order to buy its own debt.

It would also need to convince Greek bondholders to sell their stakes, which was a huge issue during the Second Greek bailout earlier this year.

So once again, we have yet another non-solution (the goal of this plan is to help Greece get its Debt to GDP to 120% by 2020) which will require a great deal of arm-twisting and political machinations to accomplish almost nothing.

The same idiocy is playing out in Spain. The latest plan there is for the country to cut the balance sheets of three nationalized banks by 50% sometime in the next five years. How will they do this? By dumping their toxic property assets into a “bad bank.”

The idea here is that somehow someone will want to buy this stuff. Spain already had to postpone the launch of the bad bank by a month because no one wanted to participate in it (despite the mainstream media claiming that the idea was popular which is untrue).

So, here we have Spain proposing that it can somehow unload a ton of garbage debts onto “someone” even though there is no “someone” to buy them. And the whole point of this exercise is to meet conditions so that Spain would qualify for another €40 billion in aid.

€40 billion in aid.

On an annualized basis, Spain has experienced portfolio and investment outflows of more than €700 billion. And the latest plan to address this situation (as well as the implosion of the Spanish banking system) is to dump toxic bank assets into a bad bank to free up €40 billion in aid.

Oh, and Spain needs to issue over €200 billion in debt next year.

Again, a non-solution which doesn’t fix anything.

As I mentioned before, without a doubt 2013 will be a disastrous year for the global economy and for the financial markets. Things could get ugly before then due to any number of issues that are boiling just beneath the surface… but barring any sudden developments, most of the key players will try to hold things together into year end.

At that point, there’s really not anything to look forward to (compared to this year when many pinned their hopes on the US elections or on more intervention from the Central banks). And that’s when things will get really ugly.”

Yang terakhir yang tak kalah penting dari William Hunt “Bill” Gross, salah seorang pendiri Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO) dan kini mengelola dana Total Return-nya PIMCO (dana investasi terbesar dunia untuk pasar obligasi), yang memiliki beberapa hal yang bernilai dalam laporan bulanan terbarunya.

Berikut adalah bagian terpenting dalam laporannya tersebut, yang di dalamnya juga terdapat sejumlah saran investasi yang bagus:

Strawberry Fields – Forever?

Investment Conclusions

I’m fond of reminding PIMCO’s Investment Committee that you can’t buy GDP futures – at least not yet. Hypotheses about real growth rates, no matter how accurate, must be translated into investment decisions in order to justify the discussion. Before doing so, let me acknowledge that these structural headwinds can and will likely be somewhat countered by positive thrusts. Cheaper natural gas and the possibility of reversing or even containing the 40-year upward trend of energy costs may be a boon to productivity and therefore growth. There is talk of the U.S. being energy independent within a decade’s time. Housing as well may be experiencing a multiyear revival. In addition, unforeseen productivity breakthroughs may be just over the horizon. How many gloomsters could have forecast the Internet or any other technical breakthrough before it actually happened? Jules Verne we are not.

But if a 2% or lower real growth forecast holds for most of the developed world over the foreseeable future, then it is clear that there will be investment consequences. Shown below, as recently published in a TIME Magazine article by Rana Foroohar, is a PIMCO list of future Picks and Pans based upon these ongoing structural changes:

Picks

  • Commodities like Oil and Gold
  • U.S. Inflation-Protected Bonds
  • High-Quality Municipal Bonds
  • Non-Dollar Emerging-Market Stocks

Pans

  • Long-Dated Developed-Country Bonds in the U.S., U.K. and Germany
  • High-Yield Bonds
  • Financial Stocks of Banks and Insurance Companies

The list to a considerable extent reflects the view that emerging economy growth will continue to be higher than that of developed countries. Their debt on average will remain much lower, and their demographic age much younger. In addition, the inevitable policy response of developed economies to slower growth will be to reflate in order to minimize the impact of the aforementioned structural headwinds. If successful, reflationary policies will gradually move 10 to 30-year yields higher over the next several years. The 30-year Treasury hit its secular low of 2.50% in July and such a yield may seem ludicrous a decade hence. Investors should expect future annualized bond returns of 3–4% at best and equity returns only a few percentage points higher.

As John Lennon forewarned, it is getting harder to be someone, and harder to maintain the economic growth that investors have become accustomed to. The New Normal, like Strawberry Fields will “take you down” and lower your expectation of future asset returns. It may not last “forever” but it will be with us for a long, long time.

What Do the Charts Say?

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com memanfaatkan liburannya untuk berkontemplasi dan melakukan riset sejumlah hal makro yang potensial mempengaruhi bursa di tahun 2013.

Selanjutnya, Durden juga mempresentasikan grafik menarik yang belum pernah saya lihat sebelumnya dan pasti layak mendapat perhatian Anda:

Repressed Fear

Via Global Macro Monitor blog,

This nice chart comes to us from the Leuthold Group via Bloomberg. It illustrates that market fear or risk aversion is at its lowest levels since the 1980′s!  Yikes!

The Leuthold Group membuat Risk Aversion Index (RAI) mereka dengan menggabungkan sejumlah indikator yang berbasis pasar, termasuk spread swap dan credit, implied vol, currency moves, dan commodity prices.

No doubt quantitative easing is repressing market fear.

They also note that periods of low risk aversion tend to run longer than streaks of elevated risk aversion.   How long this time?   We don’t know but we’re going to think long and hard over the holiday about the potential macro swans in 2013.

Here are eight starting thoughts we will be contemplating and researching:

  1. Japan pushes too hard with fiscal and monetary easing and tips over into a debt and currency crisis;
  2. markets begin to fret over France and Italy;
  3. the U.K. starts to have trouble and doubts increase its over debt sustainability;
  4. inflation begins to creep up calling into question the sustainability of global quantitative easing due to the rise of stagflation;
  5. increased political instability caused by stubbornly high unemployment;
  6. the U.S. can’t get it together politically to implement the necessary structural economic and fiscal reforms;
  7. China’s financial and credit problems surface and create panic in the local financial markets;   and
  8. geopolitical tensions in Asia get hot.

How will these affect our trading?

We’ll go with trend, keep them on our radar and try to find cheap avenues to express or hedge the swan events.”

Di akhir laporan ini, seperti biasa agar tetap berbahagia, ada Jingle Bells – The Fiscal Cliff Remix oleh DJ Matt King dari Citigroup:

Jingle bells (fiscal cliff remix)

Dancing on the edge
Of the looming fiscal cliff
Impossible to hedge
The politicians’ tiff.
It’s spending cuts we need
To cut the deficit
But taxes too must rise
That much is definite!

Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Drama all the way!
Surely sense will soon prevail
And help them meet halfway? Hey!
Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Washington at play
With Congress so polarized
Who knows which way they’ll sway?

Obama wants a rise
In tax rates for the rich
Yet Boehner’s compromise
Still can’t help decide which!
Republicans are bound
By Norquist’s famous pledge
There’s little common ground
Will we fall off the edge?

Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Drama all the way!
Surely sense will soon prevail
And help them meet halfway? Hey!
Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Washington at play
With Congress so polarized
Who knows which way they’ll sway?

On the spending side
The problem’s Medicare
We simply can’t provide
Now baby boomers have grey hair!
Republicans want cuts
A trillion, maybe more
But Democrats will not discuss
Their favourite candy store!

Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Drama all the way!
Surely sense will soon prevail
And help them meet halfway? Hey!
Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Washington at play
With Congress so polarized
Who knows which way they’ll sway?

The outlines of a deal
Are plain for all to see
No! False alarm! It’s been revealed
They’re going for Plan B!
This posturing is mad
And if that’s vetoed too
They’ll have to start a clean scratch pad
Unless there’s some breakthrough!

Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Drama all the way!
Surely sense will soon prevail
And help them meet halfway? Hey!
Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Washington at play
With Congress so polarized
Who knows which way they’ll sway?

Too late, we’ve fallen off
Let’s hope we bungee jump
Otherwise this trough
Will turn into a slump!
Hooray! The cliff’s been fixed
With short-term compromise
Too bad it’s in the abyss beyond
The real problem lies!

Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Politics in play!
The only thing they have in mind
Is the next election day! Hey!
Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff
Isn’t politics great?
They’ve left us now in such a mess
We’ve no choice but to inflate.

Dibuat Tanggal 27 Desember 2012

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apa Yang Anda Inginkan Di Saat Natal?

December 25th, 2012 No comments

“Eyes blinded by the fog of things cannot see truth. Ears deafened by the din of things cannot hear truth. Brains bewildered by the whirl of things cannot think truth. Hearts deadened by the weight of things cannot feel truth. Throats choked by the dust of things cannot speak truth.”

-Harald Bell Wright – The Uncrowned King

Jadi apa yang Anda inginkan saat Natal? Kebanyakan mungkin menginginkan gadget versi terbaru, namun beberapa mungkin menginginkan saat Natal sebagai waktu untuk merenung.

Demikian Jim Quinn, blogger di The Burning Platform, yang nampaknya tidak tertarik dengan segala gadget yang cenderung dapat kehilangan hampir seluruh nilainya dalam waktu beberapa pekan saja. Apa yang sangat dia inginkan tergambar dengan jelas dalam artikelnya awal bulan ini, yang berjudul All I Want For Christmas Is The Truth.

Berikut sejumlah paragraph yang sungguh akan menggugah pikiran dan membuka mata. Namun jika Anda sulit menerima kebenaran, maka sebaiknya tidak membacanya:

The pillars are crumbling. The $1.4 trillion wasted on two worthless wars of choice in the Middle East, the trillions wasted and liberties sacrificed for the never ending unwinnable War on Terror, the Keynesian spending frenzy that has driven the National Debt from $9 trillion to $16.3 trillion in the last five years, the looting of the American taxpayer by Wall Street and their co-conspirators at the Federal Reserve and in Congress, and the belief that ramping up the debt driven consumption that drives 71% of our GDP is our path to prosperity is absolutely freaking nuts. The pillars will not be abolished willingly. The ruling class depends upon their continued existence and expansion. There is the rub. The math doesn’t work. We’ve reached the point where continued expansion of debt and money printing no longer works. With a national debt to GDP ratio of 102% and a total credit market debt to GDP ratio of 350%, we have passed the Rogoff & Reinhart point of no return. This time is not different. A country cannot run trillion dollar deficits indefinitely and expect to not suffer the consequences. This is why those in power are increasingly resorting to propaganda, data manipulation, and outright lies to convince the masses of their omnipotence and brilliance in managing the fiscal affairs of the state.

The average American actually believes Ben Bernanke saved us from a Great Depression when in actuality he saved the owners of the Federal Reserve from accepting the losses they generated through the greatest financial fraud in history. His “solutions” have zombified our economic system, just as the Japanese Central Bank did 20 years ago. He has destroyed the concept of saving, while rewarding the indebted and profligate with his QE to Infinity money printing policies. And the ignorant masses have been convinced by the corporate media and their corrupt government lackeys that Ben did this for them. Kyle Bass knows otherwise. He knows how the Fed and their backers have preyed upon the masses through their understanding of human psychology:

Humans are optimistic by nature. People’s lives are driven by hopes and dreams which are all second derivatives of their innate optimism. Humans also suffer from optimistic biases driven by the first inalienable right of human nature which is self-preservation. It is this reflex mechanism in our cognitive pathways that makes difficult situations hard to reflect and opine on. These biases are extended to economic choices and events. The primary difficulty with this train of thought is the bias that most investors have for the baseline facts: they tend to believe that the central bankers, politicians, and other governmental agencies are omnipotent due to their success in averting a financial meltdown in 2009.

Central banks have become the great enablers of fiscal profligacy. The overarching belief is that there will always be someone or something there to act as the safety net. The safety nets worked so well recently that investors now trust they will be underneath them ad-infinitum. Markets and economists alike now believe that quantitative easing (“QE”) will always “work” by flooding the market with relatively costless capital. Unlimited QE and the zero lower bound (“ZLB”) are likely to bankrupt pension funds whose expected returns happen to be a good 600 basis points (or more) higher than the 10?year “risk-free” rate. The ZLB has many unintended consequences that are impossible to ignore.

Our belief is that markets will eventually take these matters out of the hands of the central bankers. These events will happen with such rapidity that policy makers won’t be able to react fast enough. The fallacy of the belief that countries that print their own currency are immune to sovereign crisis will be disproven in the coming months and years. Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.” Kyle Bass

What’s Normal in a Profoundly Abnormal Society?

No sane person could honestly say that what has happened to our society over the last forty years, and particularly in the last five years, is normal. But somehow those in power have convinced the masses that $1.2 trillion deficits, 0% interest rates, declining real wages, the highest average gas prices in history, pre-emptive wars, policing the world and buying rubber dog shit produced in China with a credit card is normal and beneficial to our economy. It seems that I and a few million other people in this country are the abnormal ones. We choose not to be led to slaughter by our masters. The seekers of truth have turned to the alternative media and are able to connect with like-minded critical thinking individuals on websites like Zero Hedge, Jesse’s Americain Café, Of Two Minds, Mish, among many other truth seeking blogs.

This is dangerous to the powers that be and they are using their political clout and extreme wealth to try and lock down and control free speech on the internet. If this is accomplished all hope at disseminating truth will be lost.

Abraham Lincoln once said that he believed in the people and that if you told them the truth and gave them the cold hard facts they would meet any crisis. That may have been true in 1860, but not today. The cold hard facts are available for all to see:

  • A $16.3 trillion National Debt
  • 47 million people on food stamps
  • Over $222 trillion of unfunded Federal entitlement liabilities
  • Over $5 trillion of unfunded State entitlement liabilities
  • True unemployment above 20%.
  • True inflation above 5%.
  • A stock market at the same level as 1999, with a 10 year expected annual return of less than 4% – Stocks for the really, really long run. 10 year bond returns of 0% will be a miracle.
  • A savings rate of 3.7% and with Bernanke’s ZIRP, no incentive to save. Real hourly earnings continue to fall.

Baby Boomers within 10 years of retirement have saved an average of only $78,000, and more than a third of them have less than $25,000. More than half of U.S. workers have no retirement plan at all.

  • A crumbling, decaying infrastructure, with 150,000 structurally deficient bridges, bursting water mains, and an overstressed electrical grid.
  • Horrific government public education producing millions of low functioning morons.
  • Rotting social fabric, with 40% of children born out of wedlock (72% of black children) and a 50% divorce rate.
  • An energy policy based upon unicorns farting rainbows and press releases about green energy and the miracle of shale fracking, as average gas prices in 2012 and 2011 were the highest in U.S. history.

We want to be lied to because the truth is too painful. Hope and denial with a dash of delusion is the recipe the mindless masses prefer. The average person doesn’t want to understand the chart below. They want to believe the U.S. will dominate economically and lead the world for decades to come. We are still the bright shining beacon of democracy on the mountaintop. Even though the facts unequivocally reveal a declining empire, the masses desperately grasp at straws in the wind. The United States share of world GDP will be vastly lower in 2021, as the hubris of declining empires never allows them to take the necessary steps to reverse the decline (Rome, Great Britain).

The accumulation of material possessions through the use of consumer debt, peddled by bankers and reinforced through relentless corporate marketing propaganda has left the country’s citizens weary, miserable, greedy, indebted and sick. Our obsession with technology has merely provided another means of distracting ourselves from confronting the dire challenges that must be addressed. We can ignore the facts but that doesn’t mean they do not exist. The abnormality that grips this nation is breathtaking to behold, as the status quo cheer on and encourage consumers to buy more things with money they don’t have in order to support an economic recovery that is dependent upon zero interest rates for Wall Street banks, QE to infinity, and the delusional desire for a miraculous return to the good old days when getting something for nothing was possible. We can no longer deny reality. If we want to add 30 million people to Medicaid, it must be paid for. If we want to wage never ending wars and police the world, it must be paid for. If we want a Federal government to spend $3.8 trillion per year, it must be paid for. Nothing is free in this world, but more than 50% of Americans seem to believe that to be true.

“Our economy is based on spending billions to persuade people that happiness is buying things, and then insisting that the only way to have a viable economy is to make things for people to buy so they’ll have jobs and get enough money to buy things.” Philip Elliot Slater

We are seen by those in control as nothing more than common house flies caught in their web of lies. Your owners don’t care about you. They only care about their own wealth and power. They want to control and manipulate you. They want to keep you enslaved in debt and running on the treadmill of consumption. They want passive, non-critical thinking drones to do the menial service jobs that remain in this country, while they use their control of our financial, political, tax, and legal systems to ransack and pillage the wealth of the dwindling middle class. The truth is the continuation of our current economic system is mathematically impossible. Your owners know this. This is why the use of propaganda, misinformation, fake data, and false storylines has taken on astronomical proportions. The time for passivity and accepting the deceitfulness of our leaders is coming to an end. While you’re waiting in line this Christmas season at Wal-Mart to purchase a fabulously priced shirt that only required the deaths of 112 Bangladesh slave laborers, try to figure out how we got here. Your owners think they have you by the balls.

“They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want; they want more for themselves and less for everybody else. But I’ll tell you what they don’t want—they don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest. You know something, they don’t want people that are smart enough to sit around their kitchen table and figure out how badly they’re getting fucked by a system that threw them overboard 30 fucking years ago. Because the owners of this country know the truth, it’s called the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.” George Carlin

How many Americans are awake enough to handle the truth?

All I want for Christmas is the truth.

What Do the Charts Say?

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com baru-baru ini mempersembahkan The 12 Charts Of Christmas.  Kesemuanya merupakan grafik yang HARUS DIAMATI bagi setiap investor yang sungguh ingin mempersiapkan diri menyambut tahun yang akan datang, maka silahkan jadikan pertimbangan saat membuat rencana investasi atau trading Anda:

“After the success of the ‘scariest charts for equity bulls’, the following 12 charts are the most important, in CitiFX’s view, to establish a ‘starting point’ for views on markets as we head into 2013. From employment trends echoing the 1970s, one-last-low in Treasury yields and ’90s analogs, to EURUSD and its mid-’80s mirror, and the ongoing trend higher in gold; there is something here to scare equity and bond bulls and bears alike.

Via CitiFX:

What do we believe for 2013?

  • Initial claims will follow a similar path to that seen in the 1970s and begin to move higher in 2013. This will be the first indication that further trouble lies ahead. The 2’s – 5’s curve will eventually move higher also but not before posting one last move down.

  • U.S. 10 year yields will have one final push down towards 1%-1.2% at which point they could bounce up like a “beach ball let go underwater”.

  • EURUSD will fall towards 1.20 in Q1 2013 and possibly even 1.10-15 with parity a real possibility in 2 years. We also expect a rally on the USD Index this year of about 15% which suggests that this move will be predominately driven by EURUSD (57.6% of the USD-Index).

  • USDJPY will eventually move higher as the interest rate dynamic kicks in and we would not be surprised to see a move into the low 90s over the course of the year.

  • We expect Gold to move to $2,055 -$2,060 in the first quarter of 2013 and ultimately a rally towards $2,400 in 2013.

  • Crude Oil (Brent) should rally to the 2011/2012 highs around $125 and possibly move to all time highs in 2013.

The DJIA will drop over 20% towards the 10,000-10,500 area.

The dynamic in this cycle is similar to 1973-1978 albeit at higher nominal levels. In 1978 this was a turning point which then saw these numbers head significantly higher again. However that, as well as a deterioration in economic activity and housing, was partially induced by a tightening Fed which given the present debt/housing/employment dynamic is highly unlikely even if we see some inflation in the system. However we think there is a real danger that higher yields (Bond markets) and a tighter fiscal dynamic could induce this move.

Bottom line we think the best may be behind us for now on this chart and expect renewed deterioration in 2013

This chart has been in our view, the best interest rate chart in the World for the last quarter century.

Our bias is that we have limited downside left here before we “pop”

Where initial claims go… the yield curve will follow.

We did not quite reach this base in late 2008 when it stood at 1.89%. It now stands at 1.05%. As yet we have not regained any levels of importance on the topside.

While we do not for a moment suspect that we would stay down there for long, we do think a danger remains for one last move lower as seen in previous trends. IF so, that low could be subject thereafter to a sharp bounce as seen in prior instances.

There are currently many scenarios at play which could be the catalyst to such a move. Candidates? 1. Fiscal Cliff and/or debt ceiling negotiations; 2. Europe’s sovereign debt crisis; 3. Middle East turmoil; 4. China slowdown

A little lower then a lot higher – for Treasury yields.

EURUSD set to weaken

USD strength is on its way

It may as yet be a little early for this move but if we get the expected bounce in bond yields expect USDJPY to power higher

The trend is clearly higher.

The present dynamic in Crude continues to remind us of the 1970’s when we got 2 supply shock moves. The first came in 1973-1974 at the same time as we had a collapse in the Equity market (1973-1974); a collapse in housing activity (1973-1975) and a sharp fall in economic activity (1973-1974). During the 1973-1974 period Crude pretty much tripled in price (low to high) over 18 months.

Then about 5 years after the 1973-1974 surge it “did it again” and once again virtually tripled in price in 1978-1979 over 18 months (backdrop here was the Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war).

In 2007-2008 Crude virtually tripled in price over 18 months and we saw an equity, housing and economic dynamic very reminiscent of 1973-1975. Now as we head towards 2013 could we be setting up for another tripling in price over 18 months to 2 years? We hope not as that would put Crude close to $200.

Stay Far Away From Equities…

Every bounce off this trend line on the VIX since 2007 has been followed by a sharp move lower in the S&P (average 23% over 4 ½ months)

Charts: CitiFX

Di akhir laporan ini kembali saya ingin mengetengahkan 2 gambar lucu dari williambanzai7:

Kami segenap tim riset PT Valbury Asia Futures mengucapkan Selamat Natal dan Tahun Baru, semoga tambah sehat, damai dan sejahtera.  (Dibuat Tanggal 24 Desember 2012)

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Watch Out Below! (Bagian 2)

December 24th, 2012 No comments

It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”

-Warren Buffett

There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path.”

-Morpheus

Melanjutkan pembahasan kita pada tulisan sebelumnya, mari kita melihat lebih lanjut indikator-indikator ekonomi dan sentimen, yang menunjukkan bahwa kondisi ekonomi sedang memburuk dalam beberapa bulan terakhir ini.

Karena lebih banyak hal yang bisa diperoleh hanya dari sebuah gambar, oleh karena itu sebaiknya kita akan melihat sejumlah grafik yang dapat menunjukkan REALITA, daripada kita hanya meyakini bahwa rally bursa saat ini berdasarkan HARAPAN.

Namun jangan merasa risih karena ini adalah terakhir kalinya saya ‘mengganggu’ Anda dengan sejumlah peringatan terhadap ekonomi AS.

Langsung saja, berikut adalah sejumlah komentar dan grafik yang akan membuka mata kita – seperti biasa – dari Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com:

1) It’s Not The Economy, It’s The Deja Deja Deja Deja Deja Vu Pre-FOMC Rally, Stupid (December 11th)

Today’s rally marks the fifth of the last six pre-FOMC days with a strong performance for stocks (the one sell-off into an FOMC meeting this year was when consensus did not expect anything – post QE3 and pre-election). The current differential between Treasuries and stocks is as wide (and expectantly hopeful) as it was when we were ‘gifted’ QE3 – and that marked the top in stocks for the year so far. It seems heading into this meeting, consensus expects the QE4 Treasury-based fill-’er-up that we discussed the day QE3 was announced and given the crush in earnings expectations, the broad market’s current year-highs in P/E valuations just looks remarkably over-optimistic. With today’s heavy block size seen at the highs as the short-stops were run, one can’t help but see this as professionals lightening up into retail hope as opposed to looking to extend the rally.

10Y vs. S&P 500 into each of the last six FOMCs... (and lower pane shows a ‘model’ view of current equity richness to bonds near its highs of the year)

Meanwhile - valuations on the major US equity indices are pushing back to the year’s highs with this latest rally… incredible… with the Russell already the year’s highs!

Charts: Bloomberg

2) We Built It – But They Did Not Come (December 11th)

While everyone loves a good inspirational movie – Rudy (every underdog has his day), Field of Dreams (if you build it they will come), Million Dollar Baby (be relentless); it is a somewhat sad reflection of reality that in fact – hope and trying hard is simply not enough (especially when you are a debt-saturated global economy). Two data points highlight this better than any others. Today we see wholesale inventories relative to sales at multi-year highs (aside from the great recession’s peak) – having risen for almost two years now as we have built ‘stuff’ but the buyers just haven’t come. And to rub a little more salt into the eternal optimist’s wounds, it appears that Small Business Optimism has continued its divergence from equities (which notably saw stocks crash the previous two times). Equities remain the hope-driven liquidity-fueled home of the algo-optimist while all around struggles ’300′-like with economic reality. Are stocks about to have their “I see dead people” moment?

Wholesale Inventories-to-Sales suggest that the ‘Field of Dreams’ economy is broken…

and no wonder – as Small Business Optimism indicates we are due for a dose of reality…

(h/t Brad W at NewEdge)

3) So Much For “Confidence” – NFIB Small Business Outlook Drops To Record Low (December 11th)

While Europe’s confidence-inspired rally is floating all global boats in some magical unicorn-inspired way, the reality is that on the ground in the US, things have never looked worse. The NFIB Small Business Outlook for general business conditions had its own ‘cliff’ this month and plunged to -35% – its worst level on record – as the creators-of-jobs seem a little less than inspired. Aside from this unbelievably ugly bottom-up situation, top-down is starting to be worrisome also. In a rather shockingly accurate analog, this year’s macro surprise positivity has tracked last year’s almost perfectly (which means the macro data and analyst expectations have interacted in an almost identical manner for six months). The concerning aspect is that this marked the topping process in last year’s macro data as expectations of continued recovery were dashed in a sea of reality (both coinciding with large ‘surprise’ beats of NFP). We suspect, given the NFIB data, that jobs will not be quite so plentiful (unadjusted for BLS purposes) the next time we get a glimpse.

NFIB Small Business Outlook for General Business Conditions ‘crashed’…

And the US Macro Surprise Index (which tracks both macro performance absolutely and relative to expectations) has tracked last year’s rise almost tick-for-tick. This stunningly close analog suggests we have reached a peak in this macro cycle…

Charts: Bloomberg

4) October US Exports Plunge By Most Since January 2009 As Trade Deficit With China Hits Record (December 11th)

The boost to GDP from the declining US trade deficit is over. While the September trade deficit number was revised further lower, to $40.3 billion from $41.5 previously, October saw a pick up to $42.2 billion, slightly less than the expected $42.7 billion, but a headwind to Q4 GDP already. As a result, expect a modest boost to Q3 GDP in its final revision, even as Q4 GDP continues to contract below its consensus of sub stall-speed ~1%. The reason for the decline: a 3.6% decline in exports of goods and services. This was the biggest percent drop in exports since January 2009 as the traditional US import partners are all wrapped in a major recession. What helped, however, was the offsetting drop in imports by 2.1%, the lowest since April 2011, as US businesses are likewise consumed by a concerns about the global economy. And without global trade, whose nexus just happens to be Europe, there can be no global or even regional recovery. So far, all hopes of a pickup in global economy have been largely dashed. Yet one country benefits from the ongoing US slump is China: imports from China – consisting primarily of computers and toys, games, and sporting goods- jumped 6.4% to a record $40.3 billion, offset be a modest rise in exports – primarily soybeans – to $10.8 billion, bring the China deficit to a record $29.5 billion from $29.1 billion in September. Of course, one wouldn’t get that impression looking at the Chinese side of the ledger: the Chinese Customs department reported a September and October trade surplus with the US amounting to $21.1 and $21.7 billion. One wonders, somewhat, where the over $16 billion difference has gone.

Combined trade deficit:

Just exports:

5) Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008 (December 12th)

It has been a while since we looked at the Baltic Dry Index, which when normalizing for the excess glut in dry container ship supply (such as right now – 5 years after all the excess supply in the industry – has long been normalized), continues to be one of the best concurrent indicators of global shipping and trade. We look at it today; moments ago it just posted an epic 8.2% plunge, crashing from 900 to 826, or the biggest drop since 2008! Of course, considering the collapse in global trade confirmed in past days by both Chinese and US data, this should not come as a surprise, although we are certain it will merely bring out the BDIY apologists who tell us that supply and demand here (like in every other Fed-supported market) are completely uncorrelated.

6) Is This The Chart Making Bernanke Nervous? (December 12th)

With the Fed nervous to even let a little MEP ‘Twist’ expire (tightening), we can’t help but be a little nervous of their unbridled and passionate belief that if inflation should rear its ugly (or virtuous, perhaps, in their satanic eyes) head, they will be able to manage and tighten to control it. To wit, we note that one of the Fed’s most-watched indicators of inflation – the 5Y5Y forward inflation breakeven – has just reached its highest level in 17 months and is near its peak since the financial crisis lows in 2009 at over 3.08%. We have six little words for Bernanke, Yellen, et al. “Be Careful What You Wish For.” And by the way, the last few times, the 5Y5Y reached these levels marked a short-term top in the S&P 500.

17 month highs in inflation expectations…

These local peaks in inflation expectations have marked local highs in the S&P 500 also…

Charts: Bloomberg

7) Does The Fed Think The S&P 500 Will Be At 750 In Jan 2015? (December 12th)

At the current pace of ‘improvement’ in the unemployment rate, it appears the Fed will cease its ‘stimulation’ in early 2015 – and based on the empirical relationship between unemployment rates and the S&P 500 that implies a healthy retracement to around 750. Seems like the index is comfortable trading back to that level…

Chart: Bloomberg

8) Where’s The Money On The Sidelines? (Hint: All-In) (December 14th)

Spend more than 10 minutes watching business television and you will undoubtedly be told that there’s a lot of money on the sidelines, everyone owns bonds, and once ‘some catalyst – election? fiscal cliff? year-end?’ is completed then that rush of desirous greedy capital will send Tom Lee’s own S&P 500 to new ‘giddy’ heights. Well, back here in reality-land (away from the total misunderstanding that the cash on the sidelines will always be there as the person you ‘buy’ your shares from is left with the same ‘cash’ you held before) it appears that these two charts suggest those sidelined investors are anything but. As Morgan Stanley notes, 77% of US investors are now bullish on US equities – near record highs – and if, like us, you prefer positioning (as opposed to sentiment) data, the net longs in S&P 500 futures are as high as they were in 2007 (right before the peak) and in late 2008 (right before the 27% plunge in the first quarter of 2009). But apart from that…

Sentiment…

Positioning…

Charts: Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg

What Do the Charts Say?

Jika Anda masih belum yakin bahwa bursa saham AS hanya berusaha untuk tidak jatuh dari level teringginya sejak awal November, maka berikut sejumlah grafik yang akan menjelaskan situasi tersebut.

John C. Burford, seorang Editor dari MoneyWeek Trader, belakangan ini banyak mengulas soal tersebut dan telah melakukan analisa teknikal yang luar biasa untuk indeks Dow Jones dalam 2 laporan terpisah, dan masing-masing diberi judul How to find a better tramline dan The Dow hits my major tramline.

Berikut adalah bagian terpenting dalam laporan-laporan tersebut diikuti dengan sejumlah grafik sederhana yang bahkan seorang pemula di pasar modal dapat mengerti tentangnya:

“OK, back to the Dow, which is resisting all attempts to turn lower. When I left it on 12 November, the market was moving down off the 13,660 high and had broken a major tramline:

And I had my tentative Elliott wave picture. We were then in wave 1 down and I was looking for that to bottom and start a rally in wave 2.

This is the picture today:

I believe I can safely say we now have wave 2 in progress! Wave 1 bottomed just under 12,500 and is currently pushing for the underside of my trend line. The market is following my roadmap, so far.

I am searching for the wave 2 top

So my strategy now is to look for the top of wave 2, but can I glean anything from a closer look?

Right away, I can say we have reached the Fibonacci 50% retrace eating into overhead resistance (pink bar), and we have a slight A-B-C feel to wave 2 (but not definitive – yet).

This means to me that a further push up to the blue bar zone is entirely possible:

I have drawn in a possible tramline pair, and a push up into the blue zone would take it to the crossing of two tramlines – and the Fibonacci 62% retrace. Remember, I have often commented that the Dow has made many deep upward retracements in recent years.

But a failure here and a break of the week’s 12,900 low would almost certainly mean that the wave 2 top is in – and the market will embark on wave 3 down.”

“With support coming in to the Dow, the euro and gold, many of my upper targets are being hit this week. This is always very exciting, as I prepare for counter-trend trades.

So let’s continue with the Dow from 7 December. This was my chart then:

The up-sloping line is my trend line off the October 2011 low, while my down-sloping tramline pair is my suggested scenario.

Back then, these lines had very little going for them – very few touch points, in fact. So I needed to be alert to making modifications.

As I write today, the market has moved up from last Friday and into the blue zone, which means that my label ‘a possible scenario’ should now read: ‘The current scenario!’
I have taken another look at the tramline pair and believe I have a slightly better placement:

The lower line now sports an early touch point (red arrow), as well as the prior pivot point (PPP). I have taken it through the plunge low of 16 November as I consider that to be a throw-over after a rapid plunge.

Remember, a sharp move and reversal can over-shoot valid tramlines, and it is OK to cut off the pigtails, as I did here.

This places the blue zone target at the crossing of the upper tramline and the underside of my long-term trend line.

This is a moment of truth, as resistance here should be very tough to break.

Also remember we are in wave 2 up, which could end at any time, bearing in mind that upward retracements in the Dow have historically been deep – sometimes, very deep. (emphasis mine)

This means I am on the lookout for a top in the Dow.”
Di akhir laporan ini agar tetap ceria ( atau malah tidak?), berikut saya ketengahkan 2 gambar kartun yang menjelaskan dengan baik masa depan sulit masyarakat kelas menengah AS:

Dibuat Tanggal 18 Desember 2012

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