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Apakah Harga Emas Akan Melonjak pada 2013?

January 11th, 2013 Leave a comment Go to comments

“… Europe, Japan, and the United States have a declaration of war on their currencies.  The average American, Japanese, and European, must vastly increase their holdings in precious metals, and the (gold and silver) equities, starting now.  People are realizing this is an unprecedented scenario where all of these countries have been put on the life support of their central banks to perpetuate the illusion of solvency.  And when you get to that condition, there really is no limit to how high gold can go.  It wouldn’t surprise me if gold eventually goes to $10,000 an ounce or even higher because there is no limit to the productive capacity of central bankers to produce currency.  I think it would be more surprising if gold didn’t go to $10,000 an ounce.  When the US dollar loses its world reserve currency status and the US bond market collapse is in full swing, a $10,000 gold price may prove to be very conservative.”

-Michael Pento

Saya sudah berada kembali di belakang meja kerja untuk menulis laporan lagi. Dan mari kita lihat bagaimana perkembangan terakhir di pasar emas.

Meskipun harga emas mengalami tekanan sejak Oktober 2012 lalu, permintaan untuk investasi diperkirakan masih dan akan meningkat stabil.

Berikut adalah 3 tulisan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang menunjukkan bukti bahwa potensi permintaan untuk emas masih besar.  Tidak hanya para bank sentral yang menambah emas dalam cadangan devisanya, tetapi juga investor ritel dan bahkan dana pensiun juga melakukannya:

1) Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves In Last 3 Months (December 20th)

With precious metal prices echoing 2011′s year-end plunge, it is perhaps worthwhile considering the bigger picture. To wit, Central banks in emerging markets have increased their purchases of gold in recent years to bolster their rapidly growing currency reserves as the global financial crisis unfolds. Brazil, until recently, held only 0.5% of its foreign reserves in gold, but as Bloomberg reports, the nation’s official holdings of gold now stand at 2.16 million troy ounces – double the 1.08 million ounces it held in August. Brazil’s foreign currency reserves grew USD807mm in November (during which the nation bought 472,000 ounces of gold) as “anecdotal reports suggest that demand from central banks will remain strong.” As one analyst opined, “Central banks will remain a source of demand in the gold market,” as is increasingly obvious in the chart below, “liquidity is paramount and gold will deliver.”

USD value of Brazil’s Gold reserves

Chart: Bloomberg

2) The Other “Mint” Campaign Starts Off With A Bang: US Mint Sells 50,000 Ounces Of Gold On First Day Of Year (January 4th)

And we’re off to the races. Despite, or maybe thanks to, the relentless collapse in paper gold prices, US retail continues to ignore the day to day fluctuations in the stated value of the shiny metal (most of it driven by the BIS’ Benoit Gilson), and instead has learned to take advantage of every drop to BTFD. As the US mint website reports, the very first day of 2013 saw a whopping 50,000 gold ounce sales, and another 7,000 on the second, which is nearly the entire amount sold by the mint in December, and just shy of half in all of January 2012. Which in turn means that gold raids are now becoming counterproductive: instead of disincentivizing retail purchases, they are merely accelerating them, in the process leading to ever more paper to physical currency conversion. The “trillion dollar platinum coin” may well be the dumbest idea around, but the “one ounce gold coin” idea is rapidly becoming the most popular one, shared by all who see that the only possible outcome for the “developed world” is more ceaseless devaluation of every paper currency in the world.

3) “If Just 1% Of Japanese Pension Assets Shift Into Gold, The Gold Market Would Explode” (January 8th)

Last night we reported that in the encroaching attempt to globalize the fiat ponzi regime, in Japan’s latest rush to crushTM (sounds even better than race to debase) its currency it would proceed to monetize even more debt, only not its own debt - a strategy that has failed miserably to stimulate inflation for the past 30 years – but that of Europe.

So far so good, and perfectly expected in a monetary lunatic asylum in which coining money without an appropriate collateral backing is actually considered sound monetary policy by Nobel prize winners.

What gives us some hope that there may be at least one sane voice left in the wilderness is the far less trumpeted news overnight that “Japanese pension funds, the world’s second-largest pool of retirement assets after the U.S., will more than double their gold holdings in the next two years as the new government pushes for a higher inflation target, according to an adviser to the funds.

Assets held by Japanese pension funds in gold-backed exchange-traded products may expand to 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) by 2015 from less than 45 billion yen at present.” The reason for the move is fear that Abe is actually able (unlike last time when his failure was accompanied by an inexplicable case of career-ending diarrhea) to hit his goal of 2% inflation, without in the process sending bond yields so high all tax revenue goes solely to cover interest expense on the JPY 1 quadrillion pyramid of debt and rising. Which, incidentally, according to many traders is the reason for the move higher in gold prices today.

From Bloomberg:

Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp., which introduced Japan’s first gold ETF in 2010, expects assets held in the product to double over the next several years from 26.2 billion yen as of Nov. 30. Global investors are holding a near-record amount in gold-backed ETPs that are valued at $139.6 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Assets held by corporate pension funds in Japan amounted to 72.24 trillion yen as of March 2012, declining 0.9 percent from a year earlier, according to Yasuo Sugeno, director at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. Of the total, about 72 billion yen were allocated to commodities including gold through hedge funds, he said Dec. 10.

Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan, the operator of the world’s largest pension fund with 113.6 trillion yen, stays away from commodity investment as 67 percent of their assets were allocated to Japanese bonds, Sugeno said.

Japanese pensions oversee $3.36 trillion, according to human-resource and consulting services company Towers Watson & Co. Corporate pension funds in Japan will diversify 72 trillion yen in assets after domestic stocks produced little return in the past two decades, according to Daiwa Institute of Research.

So after the rotation, paper gold holding will double to a whopping… 0.03% of all pension fund assets! Now imagine what happens to the price of gold if Japan does indeed succeed in generating inflation, and pension funds scramble to push 1, 2, 5% or more of their assets into gold. Sure enough:

Perhaps it is time for the punditry and the chatterbox media to start considering what happens not when the much anticipated rotation out of bonds and into stocks, which has not happened for 4 years now, and won’t, at least not until the government bond bubble finally pops which will only happen when the central banks finally lose control, but what happens if even a tiny amount of the global pension capital allocated to bonds and/or equities, is rotated into gold.

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima said. “If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold market would explode.”

Could not have said it better ourselves.

What Do the Charts Say?

Setidaknya 2 orang yakin bahwa kita mungkin sedang berada pada titik perubahan penting di pasar emas.  Yang pertama adalah Greg Schnell, pemilik gelar Chartered Market Technician (CMT) dan seorang Calgary Regional Director pada the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts.

Artikelnya yang berjudul GOLD-BOTTOM FISHING OR LOST WRECKAGE berisi tentang sejumlah grafik menarik yang menunjukkan sejumlah sinyal bullish:

“Gold has become pretty unloved. That in itself is usually bullish. This week we look at why it might be time to renew your interest in Gold and the miners.

First of all, let’s look at the Gold Miners. Here is a link to the live chart. Gold Miners Index.

Let’s start at the $BPGDM. First of all, the Bullish percent index is very close to the level it normally reverses at which is denoted by the green line. The index has 29 stocks in it, so each stock is more than 3% influence. It would only require 2 stocks to change the index below the line. So, getting into bullish territory.

In examining the chart information for more detail, I found a couple of interesting points. Let’s start with the RSI. There have been 4 times in the past 5 years where the index has dropped below the current level of 40. All of them produced nice trading rallies. It is clear that down at 40 is a pretty good area to look for a buying opportunity.

Next, the MACD histogram shows a deep push on momentum. This is the momentum of the Gold Miners index, not Gold. We have only had the selling momentum reach this level 7 times. This is one of the worst if you look at the area of the histogram over the last few months. It looks really bad. So that could be bad or good. However, the histogram recently seems to have bottomed out and made a higher low this week. That is important. I have drawn vertical lines where the histogram starts to improve. You can compare it to Gold’s price at the bottom panel. Pretty nice location to start buying. The April to July 2012 period was harder to call as the histogram didn’t go very deep.

Next is seasonality. I marked the vertical lines green if the rally started near the first of the year. Look at how strong those rally points were. I dotted the one in 2008 because of the trauma that was ensuing that particular year. While it did not happen in January, it did start near the beginning of the year. The seasonality factor looks to be huge. 4 for 4 in rallies for the beginning of the year. 3 rallies started around July.

Continuing down is the final panel where I have $GOLD plotted in Gold color. I have annotated the chart with some blue trend lines. The solid lines are equidistant from the middle as shown by the black lines. The dotted lines are best fit based on the trends in the price. This could be due to a log scale chart which would normally be used for a multiyear chart with so much price movement. What I see from here is that GOLD is at an area that is near the lower extreme of distance from the trend. The blow off top of 2011 was a clear exaggerated move outside the trend. Could we see that to the downside still? Anything is possible. But this chart shows a lot of good reasons for a trade right here.

Let’s look at a chart of $GOLD on the daily. Here is a link. $GOLD

Recently, the RSI has been improving. The GDX:GLD ratio is rising which is very good to see. The downward sloping bullish wedge is also a positive signal to help spot a reversal. Friday’s reversal candle was textbook on higher volume as a lot of stops were tested on the weekly chart below. The MACD appears to be trying to make a higher low while price is making a lower low. The force down was not as significant on this push so that too is bullish. I have shortened the time to 6 months so the price action is clear, but the shelf back in August is at a very important level. This level has marked support and resistance for 15 months. You can see that on the weekly below.

Here is a Weekly of $GOLD. $GOLD Weekly

On this weekly chart, the RSI is holding 40 which is excellent. The purple shaded area represents relative strength compared to the $SPX and is declining so that is not a good sign.

$Gold looked to find support at the horizontal line of $1625. This line has been a support resistance zone for the last 15 months.  The $GOLD price also tested stops below the 2 year uptrend line this week. This is a very nice place for the chart to reverse, especially with seasonality.

The MACD is making higher highs in October compared to March 2012 even though the price was the same. That is a bullish divergence.

One thing that looks weak on this chart is the full sto’s falling below 50. They really need to find a floor right here or that would mark a significant negative trend reversal.

This looks like a very interesting place to enter a gold related trade to the upside. Like all great entry points, they have significant potential to fail if no new major investors join the falling trade. For the gold followers, it has been a very difficult trade and they would sure like to see some upside reprieve.

In conclusion, I like the seasonality and the bullish candle. We’ll see how 2013 treats the gold trade.”

Berikutnya Warren Bevan, seorang penulis lepas di mingguan “Precious Metal Stock Review”, yang yakin bahwa emas akan tertahan di areal double bottom dan mengakhiri downtrend-nya.

“Gold futures themselves were totally flat on the week which means that the important weekly chart printed what is termed a Doji bar.  These bars indicate indecision and often times signify a trend change is coming.

Friday saw a huge volume day reversal with gold closing at highs of the day after putting in a double bottom.  This is very bullish and has to have me say a bottom is now in for gold. (emphasis mine)

This is painting the tape in plain view and many won’t notice it.

I am going to go out on a limb here and say the low is in.  In fact I’ll go even further out on that limb and say I think the low is in for all of 2013 in gold.

Of course I’m wrong all the time and that is why using stops is key.

I think it’s safe to get some physical gold here but if trading keep stops pretty tight and enter the trade using intraday charts at proper buy points.”

Di akhir laporan ini, saya akan menampilkan sejumlah gambar:

Sementara, emas tidak hanya dibeli karena nilainya yang tidak akan habis dari waktu ke waktu. Seorang dari India berusia 32 tahun, Datta Phuge, berpikir bahwa kemeja emas seharga $25 ribu membuatnya dapat memikat wanita: “I know I am not the best looking man in the world but surely no woman could fail to be dazzled by this shirt?”

Source: Daily Mail

Dibuat Tanggal 10 Januari 2013

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