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Bursa-Bursa Saham Di Persimpangan Kritis (Bagian 1)

January 21st, 2013 Leave a comment Go to comments

“Sober attitudes on the part of investors should be a source of comfort, since in normal times we would expect them to bring down asset prices to the point where they’re attractive.  The problem, however, is that while few people are thinking bullish today, many are acting bullish.  Their pro-risk behavior is having its normal dangerous impact on the markets, even in the absence of pro-risk thinking. I’ve become increasingly conscious of this inconsistency in recent months, and I think it is the most important issue that today’s investors have to confront.”

-Howard Marks of Oaktree

Pertama-tama, saya ingin meminta maaf karena kembali mengganggu Anda dengan berbagai data dan fakta yang menunjukkan keadaan sebenarnya dari ekonomi dan kekuatan internal (atau kelemahan) dari bursa.

Meskipun saya tidak memberikan rekomendasi yang spesifik, saya hanya ingin mengingatkan Anda bahwa sebagian besar pelaku pasar – bahkan para hedge fund – saat ini sungguh sangat berhati-hati.

Dengan kata lain, saya merasa peringatan sudah lama diberikan hanya untuk membuat Anda waspada terhadap awan gelap yang kembali membayangi bursa.  ‘Hujan besar’ bisa saja terjadi kapan saja yang kembali bisa meremukkan harapan para investor untuk pensiun dini.

Jadi KEWASPADAAN benar-benar diperlukan bagi yang peduli pada portofolio investasi, agar dapat menjaga apa yang sudah kita miliki. Saya secara pribadi telah menarik hampir semua uang saya dari bursa saham, dan saya sabar menunggu saat untuk entry point yang jauh lebih baik di kemudian hari.

Saya yakin kenaikan saat ini akan cukup terbatas, jadi mengapa harus mengambil resiko?  Jika dan ketika terjadi koreksi harga saham, saya jamin Anda memiliki banyak waktu untuk secara perlahan masuk ke saham-saham favorit yang tercantum dalam daftar belanja Anda.

Sebagai pendukung sikap saya tersebut, saya akan mengetengahkan komentar Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com, yang memberikan alasan-alasan mengapa kita harus lebih berhati-hati dari biasanya pada beberapa bulan ke depan.

Saya sunggu berharap grafik-grafik beserta komentar-komentar berikut setidaknya dapat meyakinkan anda bahwa tidak semuanya yang di Wall Street dan/atau Amerika Serikat itu bagus:

1) Albert Edwards: “Something Bad Happened In November” (December 17th)

From SocGen’s last standing realist, Albert Edwards, now that both Dylan Grice and James Montier have departed for the buy side.

“Something bad happened in November”……

…I have spotted the excellent Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) doing the rounds reiterating his call that the US economy is already in a recession. He seems to be getting a bit of stick recently, but as I am fully aware, bearers of bad news are usually derided. I think he is doing an excellent job of explaining his stance patiently and clearly in the face of some very hostile interviewers. His recent 7 December analysis on the ECRI website of why a recession is likely to have started around four months ago is well worth an uncomfortable read – link (see also the related video link).

Certainly if the US has already slipped into recession, this would help explain why our preferred measure of whole economy profits declined, albeit marginally, in Q3. We have always monitored pre-tax, domestic, non-financial, whole economy profits particularly closely because this measure of the underlying profitability of the business sector is probably the best leading indicator of domestic business investment, and that has also been weak recently.

Many have attributed the weakness in investment to uncertainty about the fiscal cliff. But if underlying profits are under pressure, then so too will be investment. So although much of the S&P eps downgrading by analysts is being attributed to severe weakness abroad, what the latest whole economy profits data show is that the domestic business situation is also weak. The ECRI recession call should be listened to more closely.

Certainly the latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey in November was entirely consistent with an economy already firmly back in outright recession. The headline optimism series plunged 5.6 points in November to 87.5, which the NFIB itself says is one of the lowest optimism readings in the survey’s long 30 year history.

“Something bad happened in November…and it wasn’t merely Hurricane Sandy”, the NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg is quoted as saying – see chart below and link. Even scarier than the decline in the headline measure was the 37% slump to an all-time low in those firms who believe economic conditions will improve over the next six months. That 37% drop is twice the previous record 18% decline, which occurred in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman’s collapse (see chart below). For those who might immediately retort that this is a sentiment indicator that should be used as a contrary indicator – you are wrong. It is a good leading or at worst coincident indicator. I would say this datum is more than consistent with the recession that Lakshman Achuthan of the ECRI has been warning of, wouldn’t you?

2) Who Needs Global Trade Anyway: FedEx Shipments Imply Subzero GDP

(December 18th)

With the entire “market” a synthetic algo-traded derivative (and facilitated by the fat pipe between Liberty 33 and Citadel) reflecting merely where the ES and VIX trades, and completely ignoring such trivial things as underlying corporate cash flows (see next post on market performance vs. earnings) or GDP, concerns about fundamentals have become a total joke. This is obviously exacerbated by such “extenuating” circumstances as tropical storms which are designed to make any negative data irrelevant. Of course, for those still curious about such old school metrics as actual economic performance, untainted by Fed intervention (such as $85 billion in offsetting flow per month), here is one chart, showing the correlation between total FedEx package shipments and Real GDP. And no, sorry, you can’t blame this one on Sandy, on the Cliff, or any of the other spin talking points. From Bloomberg: “The level of FedEx package shipments began to slump as early as the first quarter of 2012 and now appears to be signaling weaker economic conditions for 2013. In late March, FedEx made mention of cooling conditions, with CFO Alan Graf noting the economy was not as strong as  the company hoped it would be a year earlier. According to Fred Smith, FedEx CEO, “Fundamentally, what’s happening is that exports around the world have contracted and the policy choices in Europe and the United States and China are having an effect on global trade.

3) Margin Debt Soars To 2008 Levels As Everyone Is “All In”, Levered, And Selling Vol (December 29th)

There were some readers who took offense at our “bloodbath” recap of yesterday’s market action (modestly different from that provided by MarketWatch). And, all else equal, a modest 28 step drop in the E-Mini/SPX would hardly be earth shattering. However, all else was not equal, and based on peripheral facts, the reason for our qualifier is that as of last week virtually nobody was prepared for a move as violent and sharp as the one experienced in the last minutes of trading yesterday. In such a context a “mere” 1.5% drop in the futures market has a far more pronounced impact on participants than a 10% or even 5% drop would have had, had traders been positioned appropriately. They weren’t. So what was the context? Let’s find out.

First as the NYSE just reported margin debt just soared to a near five year high, with Margin Debt at a whopping $327 billion, surpassing the highest print since the Lehman collapse, and the highest level since February 2008. Not only is everyone all in based on, but they are all in on nearly record amounts of leverage.

As noted previously this happened just as the net long positioning of specs soared to an all time high.

In short – the “sidelines” speculator money is already all in, and is using gobs of leverage.

Second, when it comes to high beta, or traditionally the most volatile stocks, those that serves as either leaders or laggards in the market in its year end phases, we take a look at the Russell 2000 Mini speculative exposure as shown by the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders update. The chart below needs no explanation: the net non-commercial spec longs in the Russell 2000 have never been more bullish. If the market, which is priced to absolute levered perfection disappoints, the high beta exposure will be annihilated.

Third, and last, for all those who have had a sinking feeling ever since June that something was even more broken with the equity market, more so than usual, we have just one chart to prove all of them right. As this chart of net non-commercial CoT VIX exposure shows, starting in June and continuing ever since, the net exposure in VIX futures has gone down in what is virtually a straight line.

But what changed in June? Well, as some may recall, something very substantial – the head of the Fed’s Markets Group, i.e., its trading desk, got a new head: one who has been rumored to have a different PPT style to his predecessor Brian Sack – a style that involves the relentless selling of VIX to take advantage of a market which is drowning in reflexivity, and in which the movement of the vol surface has a far greater impact on the underlying asset than any fundamentals or news flow: want to send the market higher (and have an infinite balance sheet at JV partner Citadel courtesy of your backstop, then just sell, sell, sell VIX).

At least we can now scrap the “rumored” part.

* * *

So to all those who are confused why a 1.5% drop in the market constitutes a bloodbath, now you know: with no hedges on, with massive margin exposure on, and with everyone all in, the last thing the market can sustain is selling, any selling, or else the dreaded margin calls start coming in and PMs have to satisfy margin insufficiency with more selling, setting of an avalanche of even more selling, which ends where, nobody knows. In fact one can argue that in this context a modest 1.5% drop may have a greater impact on sentiment and positioning than a whopping 10% drop did as recently as 2008 when everyone was more or less positioned to expect precisely such a thing. Because if one is 99% levered, a 1.5% move lower just wiped out all equity.

But hey: a few more percent and one can be certain that Wall Street’s unofficial branch of government, the Fed, will get a solemn request by such representatives of “the people” as Chuck Schumer to “get to printwork” as soon as possible…

4) Will Fourth Time Be The Charm For The Market’s Dislocation From Fundamental Reality? (January 3th)

Sometimes you just have to step back and laugh. Three times in the last two years, global stock markets have lurched higher four times (fed by a hosepipe full of central bank largesse) only to fall rapidly back to the fundamentally weak reality of the global economy. If ever there was a chart that summed it all up – and highlighted the inexorable optimism that this time it really is different – the current chasm between Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World suggests either stocks are off in fairy-land again or there is about to be the biggest surge in the global economy since 2009 (right as currency wars escalate and the debt-ceiling debate in the US threatens more fiscal drag).

and meanwhile the divergence between developed markets (down) and emerging markets (up) continues to grow…

5) Retail Sales Confirm “You Can’t Spend What You Don’t Have” (January 3th)

Despite all the rancor about seasonally-adjusted ad hoc beats of holiday week retail sales (amid burgeoning discounts), the trend (post the Hurricane Sandy-driven surge) in GAFO (General Merchandise, Apparel and Accessories, Furniture and Other Sales) retail sales is most explicitly lower. As Bloomberg Brief notes, consumer incomes are in a fragile state and between the ATRA deal and a ‘stable’ at best unemployment picture, it seems that the YoY change in retail sales is indicating per capita disposable income is set to decline further. As Rich Yamarone concludes: it appears “You can’t spend what you don’t have.” It seems ‘tax-the-rich’ is also misfiring as those making over $90k per year report recent spending at its lowest for this time of year since 2008.

GAFO Retail Sales appear to be indicating a turn to come in disposable personal income…

and sure enough, via Gallup, Upper-income Americans’ (defined as those making at least $90,000 per year) self-reported daily spending was lower this November — an average of $113 — than in any November dating back to 2008. Upper-income spending has been trending downward since September, although the decline has not been large enough to drag down the overall spending figures.

Although November marks the beginning of the holiday season — generally a time for spending and splurging — Americans did not spend any more than usual this November, and upper-income Americans appear to be spending less than usual.

Source: Bloomberg Briefs and Gallup

6) America’s Bubble Dependent Economy (January 3th)

Via Global Macro Monitor,

Interesting chart (which we marked up) from the JEC of the U.S. Congress illustrating household net worth as a percent personal income.   If that doesn’t look like a head and shoulders formation in the making, nothing does!

The second chart illustrates why the U.S. economy is so dependent on the wealth effect generated by asset bubbles.   It’s stunning to think that average real earnings in the U.S. are almost 11 percent lower than where they were in 1973.

Policymakers’ focus should be on increasing worker productivity through: 1) reforming the country’s education system;  2) unleashing entrepreneurship;  and 3) in the words of ECB chief, Mario Draghi, “doing whatever it takes” to empower small businesses.

This is tough political business, however, so we take the easy way out. The political pandering increases budget deficits, forcing the Fed to repress interest rates and print money to drive up asset prices.   The boom side of the cycle is sustained longer than most expect because of the reserve currency status of the dollar.  This temporarily generates artificially inflated demand (i.e., fake) through the wealth effect, which eventually collapses when asset markets crash.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

This is not a good long term economic strategy and sustainable path for permanent wealth creation, folks.  It probably won’t change until it is forced upon us and then the adjustment will be more abrupt and disruptive than if policymakers were more pre-emptive.

America needs Mario Monti!

Seperti biasa setelah membaca laporan-laporan ini, silahkan menyimpulkan sendiri dan bertindak yang sesuai dengan keyakinan pribadi Anda. Pada akhirnya, tidak ada seorang pun kecuali kita sendiri yang bertanggung jawab untuk pengembalian investasi kita sendiri.

Saya akan lebih senang jika Anda ingat untuk memperketat (trailing) stops Anda dan tidak mengambil resiko yang tidak penting karena bursa-bursa saham di negara-negara maju sedang berada dalam persimpangan kritis saat ini.

Karena semua orang masih membahas fiscal cliff – yang akhirnya mampu dihindari – serta diskusi mengenai plafon utang yang masih berlangsung, berikut adalah pengingat (sebagai lelucon saja) dari situasi genting yang dialami di Amerika Serikat:

Tetap tersenyum dan selamat menjalani hari!

Dibuat Tanggal 16 Januari 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:
  1. January 21st, 2013 at 13:14 | #1

    nice, thx

  2. luffypiece
    January 21st, 2013 at 16:10 | #2

    wah2 anda yg blg trakhir klinya ko ga henti2nya si jd mksd trakhir kmren2 apa si…. ga perlulah mengatakan anda sdh mnrik sluruh uang anda dari bursa saham buat meyakinkan investor2 lain lha mmg anda mainnya emas aja toh ngapain mikir msk saham lg ^_^ , untung sya ga di valbury dan bertemu org bodoh yg mgkn sdh mngalami krisis 1998 dan 2008 tp msh bekerja dan tdk menjadi kaya karenanya dan skrg anda mengharapkan yg ketiga wkwkwkwkwk yg bnar aja si bung omer, tau ga knp karena anda percaya grafik yg notabene pergerakan bisa dibuat sekolompok manusia drpda fundamental itu sndiri, harga akan mencerminkan fundamentalnya dan fundamental itu bkn diukur dari grafik spt anda menilai fundamental emas ckckckck tulisan anda cm terlihat keren krena grafik tp klo penjelasan omong kosong smua lbh baik anda belajar dgn om lo kheng hong itu pun klo anda kenal ^_^

  3. raniman
    January 29th, 2013 at 03:44 | #3

    saya FC CSO Bandung