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Apakah Krisis Sterling Akan Terjadi?

January 25th, 2013 Leave a comment Go to comments

Baik, saya akui bahwa transaksi mata uang favorit saya tahun ini adalah jual pound sterling Inggris (GBP), dan bukan yen Jepang (JPY) seperti yang Anda kira, kan? Transaksi beli USD/JPY dan EUR/JPY begitu banyak dilakukan, begitu tajam pergerakannya dan bisa saja mengalami koreksi tak terduga satu saat jika kemudian terjadi aksi buru level-level stop.

Salah satu alasan utama saya berpandangan bearish pada mata uang Inggris yang dikenal juga dengan istilah cable itu adalah penunjukkan Mark Carney sebagai gubernur bank sentral Inggris (BoE). Sudah ada banyak kekhawatiran tentang pengangkatannya, padahal Carney baru akan mulai bertugas menggantikan Mervyn King pada bulan Juli 2013.

Setelah membaca 3 artikel berikut, saya yakin Anda akan mengerti mengapa saya begitu yakin bahwa pound sterling akan turun.  Khususnya terhadap dolar AS, saya memperkirakan penurunan cable setidaknya akan mencapai level 1.3500 hingga mungkin mendekati level paritasnya.

Dua laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com berikut mungkin bisa merubah pandangan Anda yang masih memproyeksikan penguatan sterling. Silahkan baca keduanya dengan seksama, dan perhatikan pula kalimat-kalimat yang diberi cetak tebal.

1) Goldman Releases Its Analysis On The Appointment Of Goldman As Bank Of England Head (November 26th)

There are so many “meta” things going on in here, we wouldn’t even know where to start, so we will simply present Goldman’s just released analysis of the implications of Carney’s “surprise” appointment to the head of the BOE as is, in all its faux “shock” glory.

From Goldman Sachs, emphasis ours:

UK: Carney surprise choice as BoE Governor

Bottom line: It has been announced today that Mark Carney will succeed Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England from July 2013. Mr. Carney, who is currently Governor of the Bank of Canada, will serve for five years (the position is intended to be for eight years). He has a reputation for being a policy pragmatist and innovator (for instance, under his tenure, the BoC was the first G7 central bank to introduce a conditional rate commitment in 2009).

1. The news comes as a surprise. Although there had been some speculation that Mr. Carney might be a candidate prior to the selection process getting under way, the BoC Governor had indicated that he had not applied for the job. Of the five known candidates, Paul Tucker, one of two Deputy Governors at the BoE, was the strong favourite for the job.

2. It is difficult to speculate on the policy implications of an appointment such as this, not least because Mr. Carney will have only one vote (of nine) on the MPC. But the BoC Governor has a reputation for being a policy pragmatist and innovator (under his tenure, the BoC was the first