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Apakah Krisis Sterling Akan Terjadi?

January 25th, 2013 Leave a comment Go to comments

Baik, saya akui bahwa transaksi mata uang favorit saya tahun ini adalah jual pound sterling Inggris (GBP), dan bukan yen Jepang (JPY) seperti yang Anda kira, kan? Transaksi beli USD/JPY dan EUR/JPY begitu banyak dilakukan, begitu tajam pergerakannya dan bisa saja mengalami koreksi tak terduga satu saat jika kemudian terjadi aksi buru level-level stop.

Salah satu alasan utama saya berpandangan bearish pada mata uang Inggris yang dikenal juga dengan istilah cable itu adalah penunjukkan Mark Carney sebagai gubernur bank sentral Inggris (BoE). Sudah ada banyak kekhawatiran tentang pengangkatannya, padahal Carney baru akan mulai bertugas menggantikan Mervyn King pada bulan Juli 2013.

Setelah membaca 3 artikel berikut, saya yakin Anda akan mengerti mengapa saya begitu yakin bahwa pound sterling akan turun.  Khususnya terhadap dolar AS, saya memperkirakan penurunan cable setidaknya akan mencapai level 1.3500 hingga mungkin mendekati level paritasnya.

Dua laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com berikut mungkin bisa merubah pandangan Anda yang masih memproyeksikan penguatan sterling. Silahkan baca keduanya dengan seksama, dan perhatikan pula kalimat-kalimat yang diberi cetak tebal.

1) Goldman Releases Its Analysis On The Appointment Of Goldman As Bank Of England Head (November 26th)

There are so many “meta” things going on in here, we wouldn’t even know where to start, so we will simply present Goldman’s just released analysis of the implications of Carney’s “surprise” appointment to the head of the BOE as is, in all its faux “shock” glory.

From Goldman Sachs, emphasis ours:

UK: Carney surprise choice as BoE Governor

Bottom line: It has been announced today that Mark Carney will succeed Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England from July 2013. Mr. Carney, who is currently Governor of the Bank of Canada, will serve for five years (the position is intended to be for eight years). He has a reputation for being a policy pragmatist and innovator (for instance, under his tenure, the BoC was the first G7 central bank to introduce a conditional rate commitment in 2009).

1. The news comes as a surprise. Although there had been some speculation that Mr. Carney might be a candidate prior to the selection process getting under way, the BoC Governor had indicated that he had not applied for the job. Of the five known candidates, Paul Tucker, one of two Deputy Governors at the BoE, was the strong favourite for the job.

2. It is difficult to speculate on the policy implications of an appointment such as this, not least because Mr. Carney will have only one vote (of nine) on the MPC. But the BoC Governor has a reputation for being a policy pragmatist and innovator (under his tenure, the BoC was the first G7 central bank to introduce the conditional rate commitment in 2009). Relative to the conservative approach towards credit easing that the BoE has adopted under Governor King’s stewardship, it is also possible that Governor Carney may be prepared to engage in more ‘unconventional’ forms of QE. Mr. Carney is also perceived in some quarters as being a dove, although this perception may simply be ‘state dependent’ (i.e. his relatively dovish stance reflected the weak state of the global economy during his tenure at the BoC).

3. In addition to chairing the MPC, the new Governor will also chair the Financial Policy Committee, with expanded responsibilities in the areas of financial regulation and oversight.

4. To ensure continuity at the BoE, it has been announced that Charlie Bean (who is also a Deputy Governor) will remain for an additional year, until 2014.

So just in case our warning that Goldman is about to launch turbo-mega QE in the UK weeks after the BOE decided to shelve it, here is Goldman itself confirming it.

Go long the GBP here at your own risk.

2) Goldman’s BOE Tentacle Has Not Even Arrived And Already Advocates Massive Money Printing (December 12th)

When two weeks ago Mark Carney was appointed head of the Bank of England (despite his firm denials of any interest in the position) many were surprised. Not us: we were certain the former Goldmanite, and incidentally current head of the Bank of Canada, would lead the world’s oldest central bank. We were even more convinced Carney would become BOE head after on November 8 the Bank of England halted QE as its “potency was questioned.” Needless to say to the banker sponsors of the MIT monetary genius diaspora (as profiled previously), there is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of an end of electronic money conceived literally out of thin air, and debiting it into perfectly willing excess reserve accounts at any/all banks. So what is a statist financial system caught in the final days of its existence and desperate to extend its life as long as possible to do? Why, appoint the one person who would turn this “disastrous” conclusion on its head, and promptly proceed with doing exactly the opposite: printing like a drunken Hewlett Packard laserjet.

As a reminder, this is precisely what happened when Mario Draghi, another Goldmanite, replaced Trichet: days after his appointment, he not only facilitated the global financial system bailout of November 2011, but announced the arrival of the now defunct $1.3 trillion LTRO.

Sure enough it was only a matter of time before Carney showed his true colors, and we were not at all surprised to read last night that the central banker, largely misperceived modestly hawkish, has done not only a full U-turn but is already suggesting the BOE not only resume QE but hit the pedal to the medal to an extent not even seen at the Fed, by pushing for NGDP targeting. This is nothing but a fancy term for infinite monetary easing.

From the FT:

Mark Carney, the next governor of the Bank of England, has suggested he will act much more aggressively to revive the UK economy when he takes charge next summer, including dumping the BoE’s much-vaunted inflation target if growth fails to pick up.

In a clear break with the views of the BoE’s current senior management, Mr. Carney, now governor of the Bank of Canada, said on Tuesday that central banks should consider more radical measures – such as commitments to keep rates on hold for an extended period of time and numerical targets for unemployment – when rates are near zero.

If those measures fail to have the desired effect, Mr. Carney said central banks should consider scrapping their inflation targets – a cornerstone of economic policy around the world in recent decades, including in the UK.

Mr. Carney suggested that a nominal GDP target, where a central bank sets monetary policy based on both inflation and growth, would do more to boost economic output. “For example, adopting a nominal GDP-level target could in many respects be more powerful than employing thresholds under flexible inflation targeting,” he said.

“If yet further stimulus were required, the policy framework itself would likely have to be changed,” Mr. Carney said in Toronto in his first speech since being named successor to Sir Mervyn King last month. He cautioned that the benefits of any regime change “would have to be weighed carefully against the effectiveness of other unconventional monetary policy measures under the proven, flexible inflation targeting regime”.

The comments are likely to rankle with Sir Mervyn, who masterminded the campaign for an inflation target for the UK, introduced in 1992. The BoE targets inflation of 2 per cent, though prices have risen at a faster rate since 2009.

Any decision on scrapping the inflation target would rest with George Osborne, the chancellor, and would be influenced by the Monetary Policy Committee’s other eight members.

And of course, should Osborne dare to refuse this “proposal” and opt for the existing, and proper, BOE course, then his tenure will be drastically reduced. Just recall what happened to Bunga Silvio when he openly defied the other Goldman nemesis Mario Draghi in the first week of November 2011, just days after the inauguration of the Italian to the ECB throne?

Artikel ketiga akan menjelaskan mengenai the man behind the gun, yakni Mark Carney yang oleh penulisnya disebut dengan Mark Carnage.  Ini merupakan artikel yang HARUS DIBACA bagi yang belum memperoleh petunjuk mengenai latar belakang ataupun pencapaiannya saat – dan sebenarnya masih hingga pertengahan tahun 2013 ini – menjabat sebagai gubernur bank sentral Kanada (BoC):

From John Aziz of Azizonomics

Mark Carnage

The greater story behind Mark Carney’s appointment to the Bank of England may be the completion of Goldman Sachs’ multi-tentacled takeover of the European regulatory and central banking system.

But let’s take a moment to look at the mess he is leaving behind in Canada, the home of moose, maple syrup, Jean Poutine and now colossal housing bubbles.

George Osborne (who as I noted last month wants more big banks in Britain) might have recruited Carney on the basis of his “success” in Canada. But in reality he is just another Greenspan — a bubble-maker and reinflationist happy to pump the banking sector full of loose money and call it “prosperity” before the irrational exuberance runs dry, and the bubble inevitably bursts.

Two key charts. First, household debt-to-GDP.

Deleveraging? Not in Canada.

The Huffington Post noted earlier this year:

Household debt levels have reached a new high, increasing the vulnerability of average Canadians to unexpected economic shocks just at a time when uncertainty is mounting.

Despite signs that Canada’s economic recovery is fizzling, data released by Statistics Canada Tuesday shows that the ratio of credit market debt to personal disposable income climbed to 148.7 per cent in the second quarter, surpassing the previous record of 147.3 per cent set in the first three months of this year.

Second, Canadian house prices:

Famed analyst Jesse Colombo recently wrote:

Booming commodities exports and skyrocketing housing prices are encouraging Canadians to spend far beyond their means, while binging on credit, mimicking their American neighbors’ profligate behavior of six years earlier. (They’re thinking, “Canada is different!”) RBC Global Asset Management’s chief economist warns that Canada’s record household debt could “spell its undoing,” while Moody’s warns that Canadian banks face significant risk due to their exposure to overleveraged Canadian consumers. Maybe things really are different in Canada, where a group of under-21-year-olds got caught by the police for racing $2 million worth of exotic supercars, including Ferraris and Lamborghinis. Or not.

The age-old misperception that this time is different, that Chinese investors will continue to spend millions on crack shacks in Vancouver, that an industrial boom in East Asia will continue to support demand for Canadian commodities, that Canada’s subprime slush isn’t vulnerable, that hot inflows from capital rich low-interest rate environments like Japan and America will continue forever.

In the short term what is going on is that the ex-Goldmanite Carney has pumped up a huge bonanza of securitization and quick profits for big banks and their management who are laughing all the way to the Cayman Islands (or in Carney’s case, Threadneedle Street). Once the easy money quits flowing into the Canadian financial system from abroad, defaults will begin to accumulate, cracks will quickly appear, and Canada will spiral into debt-deflation. Taxpayers in Canada (and in other similar cases like Australia) may well end up bailing out the banks profiting so handsomely now, just like their American and British and Japanese cousins.

The appointment of Carney is a disaster for Britain and a disaster for the Bank of England. Carney has already singled out Andy Haldane for criticism, an economist at the Bank of England with a solid understanding of the dynamics of complex financial systems, and a champion of simple and clear regulation. 

In a hundred years, people may be taking out zero-down mortgages against building geodesic domes on Mars or the Moon, and flipping them off to greater fools for huge profits. Because this time is different, right? And another crash and depression will follow.

What Do the Charts Say?

Berikut adalah sejumlah data statistik menarik untuk diperhatikan, beserta komentar dan grafik yang jelas mengindikasikan tindakan putus asa BoE dalam beberapa tahun ke belakang.  Dominic Frisby, komentator MoneyWeek’s untuk komoditas dan emas, adalah penulis dari artikel pendek di bawah ini (kecuali ada yang menyatakan lain):

“Here’s why I think that some kind of monetary crisis is inevitable. As Patterson, who is the chief economist of Gold Made Simple, notes: “Since the Bank of England started buying up UK debt at the beginning of 2009 the UK has issued about £724bn in new debt. Over that time period the BoE has bought up £365bn. Which means that a staggering 50% of ALL newly issued UK debt has been covered by the BoE”.

At 50%, the BoE has almost become the market for gilts. I can’t see how such artificial intervention can end well for sterling. The BoE is creating an artificial market – a bubble in other words – in government debt. This ability to borrow at artificially low levels means that governments are not being forced to cut spending in the way that they should.

Here’s the BoE balance sheet since 1830, again courtesy of Patterson.

Note the acceleration of the late 1960s and ‘70s. Then the even greater acceleration since 2008, which we see below with the BoE’s balance sheet since 2006. The £400bn threshold has been crossed.

The consequences of expanding the balance sheet in that way will be hard to control. I do hope there are contingency plans in place beyond just reacting to events.

My concern is that now this pattern of balance sheet expansion has been set, there is no way back. Should the economy not recover sufficiently, the answer will be even greater stimulus. That’s not good for the currency.”

Di akhir laporan ini saya akan mengetengahkan sejumlah paraprosdokian, yakni kiasan-kiasan yang biasanya pada bagian akhir kalimat atau frasanya membuat kalimat tersebut menjadi lucu, konyol atau kebanyakan bersifat lelucon.

1. Where there’s a will, I want to be in it.

2. I’m supposed to respect my elders, but it’s getting harder and harder for me to find one now.

3. I didn’t say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

4. You do not need a parachute to skydive.  You only need a parachute to skydive twice.

5. Since light travels faster than sound, some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

6. Going to church doesn’t make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.

7. War does not determine who is right – only who is left.

8. In filling out an application, where it says, “In case of emergency, notify:” I put “DOCTOR.”

Dibuat Tanggal 22 Januari 2013

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