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Bursa-bursa Saham Di Persimpangan Kritis (Bagian 2)

January 25th, 2013 Leave a comment Go to comments

“We have seen stock markets get a lift because of the so-called fiscal cliff agreement.  We could see global stock markets continue to rise based on optimism and additional QE.  But I think this is a final rise.  The danger is that investors will be sucked into this. Thereafter, I expect a massive, long-term fall in global stock markets.”

-Egon von Greyerz, founder of Matterhorn Asset Management

“There will always be bull markets followed by bear markets followed by bull markets.”

-John Templeton

Kembali saya akan mengetengahkan laporan yang penuh dengan data yang menggugah pikiran serta grafik-grafik yang menunjukkan bahwa seluruh berita-berita positif sepertinya sudah terdiskonto dengan maksimal oleh bursa saham AS sehingga tidak ada lagi hal-hal yang bisa mempertahankan ilusi sebuah bull market yang sehat.

Ini hanya sebuah fakta yang tak terbantahkan bahwa kepuasan para pelaku pasar saat ini sudah berlebihan. Anda bahkan bisa mengatakan mereka terlalu bullish. Ini jelas ditunjukkan oleh the Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Index, bahwa 53,2% dari penulis media dan advisor yang mereka survei adalah bullish.

Kewaspadaan mulai meningkat ketika data mingguan tersebut melampaui 50, dan peningkatkan melampaui 55% dianggap merupakan ‘wilayah berbahaya’. Dengan kata lain, kita semakin dekat dengan zona berbahaya saat ini . Oleh karena itulah, saya kembali ingin mengingatkan investor sekali lagi untuk tidak mengambil risiko yang tidak perlu.

Saya yakin Anda pernah mendengar pepatah lama di Wall Street “overbought doesn’t mean over” atau “markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. Maka selalu disarankan untuk mengingatnya karena pasar bisa saja masih akan melanjutkan kenaikan lebih tinggi daripada saat ini sebelum mengalami suatu bearish correction.

Kesimpulan: jangan mengambil resiko di depan kereta bursa yang bullish dan tunggulah dengan sabar kelemahan menunjukkan dirinya sebelum mempertimbangkan posisi bearish atau menjual saham-saham Anda. Untuk mendukung pandangan saya terhadap bursa AS, berikut adalah sejumlah laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang telah melakukan pekerjaan yang besar – seperti biasa – dalam menunjukkan bahaya-bahaya yang mengintai:

1) What Happened The Last Four Times That US Macroeconomic ‘Surprises’ Hit A Three-Month Low? (January 6th)

The last week or two has seen Citi’s economic ‘surprise’ indicator (ECO) take a decided turn for the worse. At Friday’s close, the index that tracks not just absolute performance of the major macro prints but their relative performance to expectations, had hit a three-month low. Since the top in the S&P 500 in late 2007, the 3-month rate-of-change has shifted significantly negative four times – and each of these times has been followed by a significant downturn (or change of trend) in the S&P 500. As of Friday’s close, the ECO index’s rate-of-change shifted negative (its most negative in 5 months) and has signaled a quite intriguingly divergent lower high (from Q4 2011′ previous peak) compared to the S&P 500′s higher high. Is the short-term drop in ECO due to ‘cliff’ indecision? Or will earnings season be the market’s catalyst to realize the changing macro landscape?

Late 2009 saw a period of very unusual absolute stagnation in macro data (while QE1′s liquidity lifted stocks) but once the rate-of-change pushed consistently negative, the top was in for stocks in mid 2010.

The blue dotted-line indicates the lower high that macro data has shown during this latest cycle (as opposed to higher high in equities)

Chart: Bloomberg

2) Speculators Rush Into Risk By Most Since 2007 (January 7th)

In the last two weeks we have pointed out that not only are equity futures traders the most net long in six years but NYSE Margin Debt is also near four year highs. Add to this the fact that VIX futures are the most net short they have ever been – crushed by an all too visible hand – and it appears that equity market participants were critically unafraid of the fiscal cliff uncertainty. What is even more concerning, at least for those who care to be modestly contrarian that is, is that the market appears to be running out of greater fools in every asset class as JPMorgan’s speculative position indicator – which combines net positioning across 8 ‘risky’ and 7′safe’ assets – is at its most risk-on since just before the crash began in Q3 2007.

So, for all those taking heads who expect a flood of new money, who still believe there is money on the sidelines that wants to be put to work, the fact is in the last decade we have been more speculatively positioned long only once – and that marked the top in stocks (and risk-assets everywhere).

The risky assets are: Copper, GSCI, AUD, NZD, CAD, RUB, MXN and equities (an aggregate of the S&P500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ & Nikkei).

The safe assets are: Gold, VIX, JPY, CHF, Silver, an aggregate of the UST and Eurodollar futures & an aggregate USD index. The USD series is the inverse of the sum of positions in EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, RUB and MXN futures. The UST series is a duration weighted aggregate of the Eurodollar, UST2YR, UST5YR, UST10YR, UST long bond & the UST Ultra long bond futures.

Source: JPMorgan

3) 2013 – Macro Déjà Déjà vu (January 10th)

Ever feel like we have been here before? Overwhelmed by the chatter that this time is different and the ‘recovery’ is self-sustaining? Join the crowd (and Goldman). Their MAP indicator – which tracks both absolute (up/down) and relative (beat/miss) moves in macro-economic data – is once again at a level that in the last two years has perfectly marked the tipping point in expectations and absolute macro performance. While the markets (in their infinite wisdom) appear convinced – just as they were in 2007 – perhaps 4 weeks in a row of weakening claims and a gross downward revision of Philly Fed is a glimpse that it really is no different this time.

Chart: Goldman Sachs

4) Is 807 The Number Of The S&P 500 Beast? (January 10th)

In today’s WTF moment, we note that the inexorable rise from the March 2009 lows to the most recent September 2012 highs has created exactly the same 807 point rise that the last bubble-blown levitation managed (from October 2002 to October 2007) . Curiouser and curiouser… and from a suspiciously devilish 666 low print, we can only hope our behavioral biases can cope with these glimpses.

(h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge)

5) Tom DeMark: “Sell The World” And Soon, The US (January 11th)

Because there are still some traders who adhere to such old normal traditions as charting and technical analysis (because apparently the FOMC committee sits down each month and observes Ichimoku clouds, RSI indicators and Bollinger bands), it is probably notable that one of the most respected chartists, Steve Cohen’s favorite technician Tom DeMark, is now uniformly bearish on virtually all markets around the world which have triggered a sell signal in his studies, and is about to drop the axe on the US as well where a “Daily 13″ signal is imminent. The caveat, of course, is that in a world in which fundamentals haven’t mattered in years, why should technicals?

6) US Q4 GDP: From 2.5% To Sub 1% in Under Six Months (January 11th)

The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which “strategist” is goal seeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.

  • Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
  • JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
  • RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
  • Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
  • Last, and least, Deutche Bank’s Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%

Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% of the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today’s massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today’s downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.

7) Hedge Funds Most Levered And Long Since 2004 (January 14th)

In the last days of 2012 we penned an article describing the current situation of the market as follows: “Margin Debt Soars To 2008 Levels As Everyone Is “All In”, Levered, And Selling Vol.” Today, Bloomberg catches up with this rather critical topic, and confirms that the buying power of the biggest marginal traders left in the market who do not recycled deposits into stocks – hedge funds – is nothing more than debt piled upon debt, as “Leverage among managers who speculate on rising and falling shares climbed to the highest level to start any year since at least 2004, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley.” BBG also recaps what our readers already know: “Margin debt at NYSE firms rose in November to the most since February 2008, data from NYSE Euronext show.” In other words: everyone is all in and levered. And soon, in about two weeks, Bloomberg will figure out that everyone, or at least a central bank here or there, is, indeed, “selling vol.

From Bloomberg:

Gross leverage, a measure of hedge fund borrowing that shows how much their holdings exceed the cash invested by clients, was 153 percent in the week ended Jan. 4, up from an average of 152 percent in 2012 and 143 percent a year ago, according to data from New York-based Morgan Stanley. The level has averaged 143 percent since 2005, the data show.

Managers are borrowing more amid a 15 percent rally in the S&P 500 since June, a gain that was mostly missed by professional investors who speculated shares would fall, according to data from Hedge Fund Research Inc. and International Strategy & Investment Group.

Borrowing increased as President Barrack Obama and Republican lawmakers reached an agreement averting more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Sadly, Bloomberg’s conclusion is off:

The rising use of borrowed money shows that everyone from the biggest firms to individuals is willing to take more risks after missing the rewards of the bull market that began in 2009. While leverage means bigger losses should stocks decline, investors are betting that record earnings and valuations 9.8 percent below the six-decade average will help push the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward the record it set in October 2007.

“The first step of increasing risk is just going long, the second part of that is levering up in order to go longer,” James Dunigan, who helps oversee $112 billion as chief investment officer in Philadelphia for PNC Wealth Management, said in a Jan. 8 telephone interview. “Leverage increasing in the hedge-fund area suggests they’re now getting on board.”

Actually no.

What near record leverage means is that hedge funds have absolutely zero tolerance for even the smallest drop in prices, which are priced to absolute and endless central bank-intervention perfection – sorry, fundamentals in a time when global GDP growth is declining, when Europe and Japan are in a double dip recession, when the US is expected to report its first sub 1% GDP quarter in years, when corporate revenues and EPS are declining just don’t lead to soaring stock prices.

It also means that with virtually all hedge funds in such hedge fund hotel names as AAPL (the stock held by more hedge funds – over 230 – than any other), any major drop in the price would likely lead to a wipe out of the equity tranche at the bulk of AAPL “investors”, sending them scrambling to beg for either more LP generosity, or to have their prime broker repo desk offer them even more debt. And while the former is a non-starter, the latter has so far worked, which means that most hedge funds have been masking losses with more debt, which then suffers even more losses, and so on.

Is this sustainable? Find out soon, perhaps in as soon as one month, when it will finally be up to the flailing market, not some trillion dollar nonsense, to get Congress to a debt-ceiling compromise (because it is not different this time). It is at that point that we will find out just how much the surge in leverage is due to optimism, and how much due to being held hostage by a market in which to keep up with the beta rally one has no choice but to layer debt upon debt upon debt to pretend alpha still works in the New Normal.

Or else: “career risk.

8.) Putting The Near-Record Equity Inflow In Context (January 14th)

There are some people who are very confused by last week’s news of the “second highest inflow into equity funds on history.” First and foremost, this is not “retail” capital reallocation, as EFSF/Lipper compile primarily institutional and ETF flow data. And indeed, as we reported earlier last week, the injection into the market, which also includes allocation to such vehicles as equity funds and ETFs by institutions, was driven primarily by a $220 billion surge in deposits in December, subsequently used by banks to reinvest said capital (most of which, ironically, coming from equity sales by retail investors as banks simply take the proceeds and reinvest into stocks). At the same time, retail investors [sic] continued to solidly pull money out of equity mutual funds. But while the source of funds was wrong, the use of funds was indeed accurate, and in the first week of the year there was a massive, $22 billion allocation to equities, second only to the $23 billion dumped into equity funds in the third week of September 2007.

What happened the first time we such an epic injection (whether it is from deposits, or from levered funding, or who knows what)? Brad Wishak of Newedge shows very clearly what happened then.

Will this comparable attempt to send stocks even higher and fool retail to be the dumb money bag holder once again succeed? Or will this time not be different? Of course, back in 2007 we actually had a market: now it is merely a place where the Fed parks $85 billion in freshly printed money each and every month.  So maybe this time will be different after all.

Pada 21 Januari 2013 lalu presiden Obama menyampaikan pidato pelantikannya di depan gedung Kongres, Capitol, yang berisi 2137 kata dan berdurasi 15 menit. Dalam pidatonya itu, presiden Obama mengajak kita semua bersama-sama untuk mengejar harapan.  Dan, seperti Anda lihat di bawah ini, William Banzai memiliki pandangan uniknya sendiri terhadap pidato presiden Obama tersebut:

Selamat menjalani hari, semoga menguntungkan serta selamat menikmati akhir pekan.

Dibuat Tanggal 25 Januari 2013

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  1. luffypiece
    January 25th, 2013 at 10:17 | #1

    bung omer biasa di akhir bagian ga lupa tertulis semoga tetap ceria hahaha, anda mgkn tau saat ini sebagian besar investor di seluruh dunia sdg ceria kcuali anda…. anda sdh menunggu bgtu lamaaaaa, sejak pertengahan 2011 klo sya ga salah guncangan hebat akan terjadi thdp ekonomi global ,syangnya bknnya terjadi mlah berbalik bullish ^_^ …( sungguh kesabaran yg luar biasa yg diperlukan fundamentalist tp syangnya anda mnyertainya dengan analisis yg bodoh dan perilaku spt penjudi dgn mengesampingkan fundamental dan berdiri diatas grafik (anda tau kan yg membentuk grafik adalah fundamental) ), bknkah emas saat ini sdg tren bearish hrsnya anda memanfaatkannya untuk akum…. bahkan anda tdk ykin dgn event penting spt debt ceiling akan kembali merontokkan bursa2 di dunia dikrenakan melesetnya smua perkiraan dan event yg menghsilkan keputusan negatif, trus trang sbnarnya anda blh berharap febuary akan menjadi bulan bearish dan sya yakin seyakinnya anda akan kembali bersemangat menulis spt kondisi yg sdh2 dan akan kembali dikecewakan di bulan maret dan april yg diiringi bullishnya sluruh bursa disertai data2 ekonomi yg menunjukkan perbaikan baik oleh as,china atau mgkn eropa….. di akhir tulisan sya smoga tetap ceria buat anda dan kluarga anda tentunya ^_^

  2. Rendy
    January 25th, 2013 at 14:52 | #2

    Prediksi anda hingga detik ini masih belum terjadi semua… Gold masih rendah dan saham tetap tinggi.. Kok bisa?

  3. edi kustanto
    January 25th, 2013 at 23:26 | #3

    Pak Nico ini “MASTER OF BEARISH” dan tidak cocok untuk dunia pasar modal karena selalu pesimis bearish sepanjang masa dan terlalu ekstrim bearish….

  4. i2padatu
    February 3rd, 2013 at 05:32 | #4

    wah… pak Nico, ada banyak komentar di KONTAN yang bullish… pertanda bearish-nya pak Nico jadi kenyataan…