Archive for January, 2013

Apakah Suatu Ledakan Harga Emas Akan Segera Terjadi?

January 21st, 2013 No comments

They say this is not massive money printing, but first they are wrong; and second, monetary authorities in the United States did not see the crash coming and the unsoundness of the financial system. In fact, right up until the crash they were saying that nothing like what happened could ever happen.  So money printing and zero-percent interest rates, which have distorted the economic recovery and the landscape in the United States and Europe, have become a substitute for sound, pro-growth, fiscal regulatory tax policy.  As a result, they say they are not concerned about inflation.  This monetary policy, $3 trillion of bond buying in the United States, $3 trillion in Europe and another $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion in Japan, is unprecedented. It is not the case that they know the ultimate inflationary potential when this low-velocity money gets back into the system and acquires some velocity. If and when people lose confidence in paper money because of repeated bouts of quantitative easing and zero-percent interest rates – it could happen suddenly and in a ferocious manner in the commodity markets, in gold, possibly in real estate – interest rates could go up at the long end by hundreds of basis points in a very short time.”

-Paul Elliott Singer, founder and CEO of hedge fund Elliott Management Corporation

Seperti telah dijanjikan, kali ini kita akan melihat beberapa grafik yang memperlihatkan target harga emas yang mungkin dicapai.  Namun sebelum itu, saya menginginkan perhatian Anda untuk laporan yang sangat mendalam yang berjudul What’s the “Big Money” Doing?, yang dipublikasi pada 4 Januari 2013.

Berikut adalah sebuah kutipan dari Dow Theory Letters-nya Richard Russell.  Jika Anda tertarik memperoleh seluruh tulisan-tulisannya dalam basis harian, silahkan klik link pada akhir laporan ini, yang sungguh HARUS DIBACA.

“If you don’t know history, then you don’t know anything. You are a leaf that doesn’t know that it is a part of a tree.” Michael Crichton

Question — Central banks the world over are spewing out their respective currencies over the world. If this continues, won’t there be an eventual panic out of fiat currencies?

Answer — The answer is yes, but before that, interest rates will be rising, and that will halt the machinations of the various central banks. Political pressure will force the central banks to curb their currency creation.

But I want to talk about something else. The action of the big money, the sophisticated money, tends to lead the markets. In view of that, let’s ask ourselves what the “big money” is doing now. We hear that classic art pieces like the Klimpt painting and Munch’s “The Scream” are going for well over $100 million. We hear of wealthy individuals buying wildly-priced apartments in New York and London and Hong Kong. All of this adds up to the “big money” placing their paper money in rare one-of-a-kind tangible items. These are items that will be considered items of wealth even if their respective currencies go the way of all fiat currencies, which is a way of saying these items will be deemed items of great value even if their respective currencies become worthless.

But what of you and I, what of the man on the street? You and I can’t afford to buy expensive collectibles. How can we protect our purchasing power if the purchasing power of our fiat currency continues to plunge? Ah, this is the basic question. You and I can’t buy a thousand acres of land in Montana. What can we do instead? The answer is that we can do what the Chinese and the Indians and the Vietnamese are doing, we can go to what I call “the common man’s rout,” we can buy gold and silver. Joe six-pack can buy one gold coin a month or an even smaller denominated coin. So in a strange way, gold is the “poor man’s protection” against a collapse in the purchasing power of his respective fiat currency.

Think about it — in the entire history of man, no fiat currency (with nothing but a government promise behind it) has ever survived! And you think our current Federal Reserve notes will be the great exception? If the current Federal Reserve notes survive for another sixty years they will be making history, they will be doing what no other intangible fiat currency has ever done.

Ah, you see, the smart money know this. This is why you are seeing great works of art, rare collectibles, classic cars, arable land, apartments in upper East side Manhattan, gem quality rubies, emeralds, diamonds and sapphires going for prices that most experts can’t believe.

Smart money doesn’t care what a one-of-a-kind red diamond costs. Smart money knows that this same diamond will be an item of great value a hundred years from now.

So my advice to my beloved subscribers is — follow the smart money, follow the people who can buy the best advice on the planet, and think ahead, think ahead to the time when there will be a panic out of Federal Reserve notes and a frenzy to own items of tangible value. Think of “the poor man’s item of eternal wealth,” think of gold.

To read the rest of Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, click here to subscribe.

What Do the Charts Say?

Untuk update singkat tentang pergerakan terakhir di pasar emas, berikut 2 grafik beserta komentar dari Tom Fitzpatrick, seorang Managing Director dan Global Head pada CitiFX Technicals:

“Gold held the medium term channel base at $1,626.  We also posted a weekly doji pattern reflecting indecision.  Additional supports and pivots are in and around $1,520.  Only a weekly close below there would suggest a more aggressive down move.  For now the uptrend is still in place and higher levels are expected.

We continue to believe that the present trading pattern is similar to that seen before the move higher in 2007 and can yield a move towards $2,400-$2,500 by the summer of 2013.”

Demikian pula dengan Tyler Durden dari yang memiliki sejumlah hal menarik mengenai emas terkait dengan debat mengenai plafon utang dan pencetakan uang oleh bank sentral dalam artikel-artikel berikut ini:

1) It Really Is Different (Again) This Time (December 19th)

Worried about gold prices falling? Doesn’t look like we learned anything from the ‘Debt Ceiling’ debate …

Gold – Debt Ceiling vs. Fiscal Cliff

Chart: Bloomberg

2) What Happened The Last Time Gold And Central Banks Were So Far Apart? (January 1st)

From 9/11 on, Gold and the world’s central bank balance sheets were as correlated as over-consumption and a hangover (and linked just as causally we suggest). Then a funny thing happened in 2008 – gold slid as the central banks went extreme. Of course, as this divergence occurred, the world’s stock markets imploded almost as if the central banks knew their status quo was about to go entirely pear-shaped. From 2008 until November of 2011 (when the world’s central banks began their coordinated ease-fest) the correlation went limit up once again. Since then, Gold and CB largesse once again decoupled as liquidity is flushed around the world’s markets to suspend reality just a little longer. While this divergence is not as extreme as in 2008, something is afoot.


and now…

Charts: Bloomberg

Terakhir, mari kita intip masa depan, dan melihat apakah emas masih menjanjikan dari sudut pandang technical.

Grafik dan komentar-komentar berikut khusus untuk King World News ( yang dipersembahkan oleh Kevin Wides dari Swiss, yang melihat bahwa lompatan harga emas berikutnya dapat mencapai $3,620:

“The chart below shows consolidations in gold since 2005 and the subsequent price moves higher. You can see from the angle of the curve that the next trajectory move for gold should be above $3,000. If you look at the move in gold following the first consolidation of 71 weeks, once gold broke out it advanced roughly 50%.

After the second consolidation on the chart, which lasted 77 weeks, once gold broke out the advance was 90%. If gold advances 50% after taking out of the recent all-time high, the projected target for the advance would be $2,880. If gold sees a 90% move after the breakout, that would target $3,620.

The lesson here reminds me once again of the great quote from Jesse Livermore:

“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.

I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.”

You have to buy into bull markets as early as possible and hold on to your position during violent gut wrenching corrections. The very reason I have quoted Livermore so often is that few human beings have the capability to capture the vast majority of an entire bull move. It takes incredible fortitude and discipline.

Some people may be concerned about the volatility in gold and silver and many of them will get shaken out of this bull market. Somewhere down the road there will be a mania and investors will have to live through it one way or another, either holding positions or watching in despair as the bull market advances without them.”

Bahkan seorang trader komoditas yang diakui, Dan Norcini, mengatakan tentang level strong resistance emas di sekitar $1,800, dan apa yang paling mungkin terjadi jika harga emas menembusnya:

“The chart below illustrates why the battle in gold at the $1,800 level is so important.  This is a 42-year chart of gold.

The next time gold breaks through $1,800, we will really see the gold market take off to the upside in a very serious manner.  If you look at the previous breakout of a similar pattern structure, which occurred in 2009, the price of gold went on to almost double in about 22 months.”

Agar semangat (berjuang) tetap tinggi, berikut adalah kutipan lainnya dari

Selamat menjalani hari yang penuh harapan dan menguntungkan!

Dibuat Tanggal 15 Januari 2012

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Emas Akan Menjadi Aset Yang Paling Tangguh?

January 15th, 2013 No comments

“The key point for investors here is that as the world loses faith in the developed world’s sovereign debt and the currencies that back it, there will be a massive move into gold and silver.  That is when you will see the oceans of paper money around the world really panic into hard assets.”

-Michael Pento

“Nothing beats a little cash in a bear market, of course, and the oldest form of cash is gold.”

-James Grant

Mungkin Anda terkejut atau mungkin merasa shock (tertekan) oleh judul laporan ini, namun saya secara pribadi yakin bahwa itu adalah sesuatu yang akan terjadi nantinya. Saat sistem moneter ini ambruk, yang pasti akan terjadi sama halnya dengan kematian, emas dan juga perak akan bersinar kembali!

Tentunya Anda tidak serta-merta mempercayai omongan saya ini, kan? Bahkan, saya sangat mengerti jika Anda sungguh meragukan mengenai potensi kenaikan emas kembali karena media mainstream telah berusaha sepenuhnya untuk mendiskreditkan emas sebagai sebuah peninggalan barbar yang semestinya tidak dimiliki dalam portofolio siapapun.

Namun demikian, sudah semakin banyak orang yang membantah media mainstream tersebut hingga mencapai pemahaman bahwa itu adalah tidak benar.  Mengapa demikian? Nah, mari saya ketengahkan kepada Anda sejumlah alasan valid dalam artikel di bawah ini mengenai mengapa logam emas merupakan suatu aset moneter dan bukan seperti komoditas lainnya.

Yang pertama, yang menurut saya paling dominan, adalah meningkatnya level hutang dunia, terutama di AS.  Egon von Greyerz dari menjelaskan ini bersama dengan sebuah grafik yang bagus, dalam laporan yang berjudul The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Berikut adalah 2 paragraf pendek laporan tersebut yang ditulis 19 Desember 2012, disertai dengan grafik the US debt & debt limit vs. gold chart:

“For investors who are concerned that the gold price is not going up fast enough, I stress time and time again that gold will continue to reflect the accelerating money printing worldwide. Below I show a chart of the US Debt Ceiling (courtesy Nick Laird, vs. the gold price. The debt ceiling has increased around 150 times since 1917. It is absolutely guaranteed that it will continue to increase in the next few years in parallel with the increase in debt. This means that it is also guaranteed that the price of gold will go up in coming years.

Although gold (and silver) didn’t go up in the last couple of days, it is absolutely guaranteed that the continued destruction of paper money will lead to substantially higher prices in the precious metals. But remember you have to hold physical metals and store them outside the banking system.”

Akhir tahun lalu, Tim Price dari Sovereign Man blog memberikan indikasi yang jelas mengenai korelasi antara rising debt load, tingginya inflasi dan harga emas.

Mari baca artikel di bawah ini dengan seksama, dengan judul Goons Versus Gold, dan mencari tahu sendiri apa yang sedang ‘membayangi harga emas’ saat ini:

Credit expansion, wrote the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, is not a nostrum to make people happy. “The boom it engenders must inevitably lead to a debacle and unhappiness.”

That seems a pretty accurate summary of the current situation for the western economies: a debacle, and unhappiness. Von Mises also wrote that “The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.”

Again, check.

And, “What is needed for a sound expansion of production is additional capital goods, not money or fiduciary media. The credit boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse.”

It seems to us that we may be fast approaching the tail end of a 40-year experiment in money. When President Nixon severed the link between gold and the US dollar in 1971, he opened the floodgates for a credit expansion to dwarf all credit expansions.

The arteries of the global monetary system are now clogged with debt. Since it simply cannot all be serviced or repaid, it won’t be. But our politicians are nothing if not committed to sticking subsequent generations with the bill.

Moreover, the conventional financial media continue to keep central bankers on their pedestal; having fawned over the appointment of Mark Carney as the new Bank of England head, the Financial Times has just declared ECB president Mario Draghi their Person of the Year, for having ‚ “turned the tide in the three-year-old euro zone crisis.”

Such thinking is astounding for the rest of us who know the Emperor’s new clothes when we see them.

Fund managers Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management have long written with great articulacy about the nature of the problem. Here is an extract from their most recent commentary, “It’s Time”:

“Gold bugs can’t understand how the public can be so unaware, how highly intelligent policy makers can be so immoral, and how the mainstream media can be so incurious. We can’t understand why more men and women in the investment business haven’t joined some of the more successful ones that have come around to precious metals . . .”

“. . . Boundless inflation will become apparent to the public either when: 1) banks begin using their new reserves to try to issue more credit; 2) mysterious “animal spirits” (i.e., when leverageable balance sheets meet common greed) spontaneously combust, or; 3) next Tuesday for no apparent reason.”

“Why all the fuss about what the catalyst will be or when it might occur. . .? Most bonds with any sort of duration and stocks held mostly by levered entities. . . are likely to be losers in real terms. Alternatively, precious metals (physical held above and below ground) and natural resources with inelastic demand properties are significantly under-owned.”

QB’s team goes on to calculate a ‘shadow gold price’ using the Bretton Woods monetary calculation for valuing the fixed exchange rate linking gold to the US dollar: Base Money divided by US official gold holdings… indicating a shadow gold price of over $10,000 today.

As QB take pains to point out, this is not necessarily a target price for gold. But it does suggest that any talk of being in a bubble is absolute nonsense when gold is also a) almost completely unheld by institutional asset managers, and b) trading at around $1700 (as opposed, say, to $10,000).

(Note: the graph above incorporates the most recent Fed announcement of debt monetization levels of $85 billion per month through to June 2015).

We honestly wanted to round off the year with a more uplifting summary of the investment scene, but a grim combination of central bank insanity and financial media buffoonery would make any such summary an offence against reason and common decency.

Although we would naturally wish for a more benign investment climate, we must play the hand we’re dealt– a world gravely impacted by the monetary and financial distortions perpetrated by doltish control-engineer goons.

And so we stick to a disciplined investment ethos. For while a pessimist complains about the wind, and an optimist expects the wind to change, the realist adjusts the sails.

Dalam artikel yang berjudul “Putting It in Perspective: In 2013 The Fed Will Conjure Enough Paper Money To Buy 11% Of All Existing Gold”, Tyler Durden dari memberikan alasan yang jelas mengapa emas begitu bernilai.

Jika Anda masih tidak mengerti setelah membaca artikel ini, maka saya kira Anda telah sangat jatuh cinta dan/atau memiliki kecanduan yang tidak sehat terhadap paper assets:

“When people throw around “trillions” (and in the case of Yen-denominated Japanese debt and/or total outstanding gross derivatives, quadrillions) with the facility that mere billions were being dispensed with as recently as 5 years ago, it is easy to lose sight of the big picture.

So what is the big picture? Well, recall the following quote from Warren Buffet’s letter to investors:

“Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion….You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”

Gold is now 7% lower, and even when netting incremental mining production in the interim since this letter was written, one can roughly say that the total value of all gold in the world is ~$9 trillion. In other words, in 2013 the Fed, alone, excluding all the other central banks, which as we pointed out earlier is very naive, will conjure out of thin air enough 1s and 0s, equivalent to $1 trillion, or enough money to buy 11% of all the gold in existence in the world. Add all the other central banks, all of which are now engaged in “unlimited easing”, and this number will likely rise to about 20% of total.

In 3 years of unlimited easing, which at this pace looks quite possible, after all all Chairmen have made it clear there will be no end to the global paper printing until 2015, enough electronic money will have been created to buy more than half of all gold in existence.

In 5 years? All of it.

So, once again, which is the scarcer commodity?

Dalam beberapa paragraf berikut, Grant Williams, seorang penasihat strategi dan portofolio pada Vulpes Investment Management di Singapura, menjelaskan mengapa harga emas TIDAK menjadi  bubble:

“… I’ll just point out that, in roughly 6,000 years of recorded history, approximately $8 trillion of gold (at today’s price) has been mined.

On August 31, 2008, the combined value of the balance sheets of the US, UK, ECB, Germany, France, China, and Switzerland stood at $8.16 trillion. By October 31, 2011, that total had reached $15.05 trillion.

In other words, it took eight central banks about five years to fabricate the equivalent value of 6,000 years’ worth of gold production and, since the chart below finished, they have added another couple of trillion dollars.

Source: The Big Picture

Or, if it helps, look at it another way; in just under seven years, US public debt alone has increased from a little over $8 trillion to $16.3 trillion—a difference equal almost exactly to all the gold ever produced in the last 6,000 years.

Source: Zerohedge

Call me old-fashioned, but I’m sorry. Gold ain’t no bubble.”

Yang tak kalah penting, penulis media kawakan, Richard Russell, yang baru-baru ini kepada pembacanya di the Dow Theory Letters mengatakan bahwa selama 60 tahun bergelut di bisnis ini dirinya belum pernah melihat hal seperti dijelaskan berikut.

Mari baca dan temukan apa yang diulasnya dalam salah satu artikel terbaiknya tersebut:

“Bull market or bear market?  Below we see a listing of the year-end cost of gold denominated in Federal Reserve Notes (these notes are now commonly called “dollars”).  From a market standpoint, we’re looking at one of the greatest bull markets in history.  But ironically, referring to “dollars alone,” this is one of the worst bear markets I’ve ever seen.

Bear market?  Sure, back in the year 2000, for only 273 dollars you could buy one ounce of gold.  But by 2012, you needed over 1600 dollars to buy the same one ounce of gold.  The eternal value of gold doesn’t change.  It’s the purchasing power of the Federal Reserve note that has changed.










The price of gold in terms of “dollars” has now risen thirteen years in succession.  But what is even more remarkable is the fact that most Americans have totally ignored (even despised) this remarkable bull market.  Let a stock rise seven or eight years in a row, and it will be the talk of Wall Street and the talk of every social gathering in the nation.

Yet this amazing bull market in gold stands alone, sneered at and almost hated.  I’ve been in this business for over 60 years, and I’ve never seen anything quite like it.  However, I do think I know something about human nature.  What I’ve learned about human nature is that it doesn’t change.

For instance, if a stock creeps up year after year, sooner or later the crowd will discover it — and then they’ll pounce on it, ultimately sending that undiscovered stock far above its reasonable price.

My belief is that somewhere ahead, the crowd will latch on to gold.  Then, as disinterested in gold as they are now, the crowd will pile into gold with the same frenzy that overtook the storied “49ers” when they packed their bags, kissed their wives and kids good bye, and headed West in search of gold.

Gold is the only item that elicits both greed and fear.  The greed factor is so well known that I don’t have to explain it here.  But the fear factor only arises when men (and women) see the “value” of their money disappearing.  Nothing concentrates the mind as dramatically as seeing the purchasing power of one’s hard-earned income and savings being ruthlessly destroyed.

As I write, Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve is systematically shaving off the purchasing power of the dollar in the same way that you can peel the layers off an onion.  The US has been in the process of constructing the greatest credit bubble in history.  The world has never seen anything like it.

This enormous bubble is now being attacked by the worldwide forces of deflation.  Fed Chairman Bernanke is terrified by the mere thought of deflation.  Bernanke will not stand for deflation.  He has said as much.  And he will attack deflation and crumbling asset prices with all the inflationary power at his command.

As the ocean of new dollars pours out of the computers of the Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the dollar erodes.  It erodes slowly at first, but as the river of dollars turn into an ocean, slowly-rising inflation segues into a monster.  Finally, the crowd recognizes what is happening to their money.

The loaf of bread that cost a dollar last year suddenly costs four dollars.  The cup of coffee that cost a dollar last week goes on special today for two fifty.  The college tuition that cost four thousand dollars now costs sixteen thousand and there’s the extra for a dorm. You’re suddenly paralyzed.  A light bulb in your head starts to glow.  And just as suddenly, the mad, frantic rush for gold is on.

Old timers shake their heads knowingly and repeat the old saw, “There’s no fever like gold fever!”  And the rush for the yellow metal turns into a full frenzy.  Even as I write, the subtle but tell-tale signs of “gold-fever” are seen and heard.  New gold funds and new gold ETFs are started.

Full-page advertisements appear in the newspapers, drawing attention to the loss of purchasing power in the dollar, and lauding the advantages of owning gold and silver.  Gold vending machines appear at airports and in European and Asian department stores.  Pressure is rising to force lawmakers to elect gold as legal tender.

On March 29, 2011, the state of Utah passed a law stating that gold and silver will be legal tender in the state of Utah.  Imagine, just imagine — gold being treated as real money!  That alone shows us how far and how completely insane the nation’s attitude towards gold and silver has become.  Gold has been treated as money for 3,000 years.  “As good as gold” is a well-known expression.  Yet, today in the US, gold is not considered to be legal tender.

No fiat money has lasted for as long as a century.  The US has had prior experience with fiat money — the Civil War Greenbacks, the “Bills of Credit” of the original American colonies, the ill-fated Continentals during the Civil War.  None of these have survived, and neither will the Federal Reserve notes that we now refer to as “dollars.”

I dislike falling back on the morality argument, but consider this.  I may work a lifetime for five million dollars.  Yet some academic working for the Federal Reserve can press some keys on a computer and create ten billion dollars instantly without working up a sweat.  Is the ten billion dollars he creates moral money?  Did anyone work for the money?  Did anyone take a risk for the money?  Did anyone drop a bead of sweat for it?  No, then I claim it is immoral and actually evil money, and as such it is doomed.

The only power evil has is the power to destroy itself.  I affirm that the Federal Reserve note is doomed.  When the Federal Reserve note goes down the drain, all fiat money in the world will go down with it.  Today information travels around the world with the speed of NOW.  People around the planet will see that fiat money is a fantasy and a counterfeit fraud foisted upon them by unconscionable and unscrupulous bankers.  It is then that the crowd will turn to gold, in much the way that people turned to gold back in 1978 to 1980.”

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE.

Karena laporan ini sudah demikian panjang, maka pada laporan berikutnya saya akan mengetengahkan sejumlah grafik menarik dan memberikan Anda sejumlah target harga emas dari sisi technical, baik dalam jangka menengah maupun panjang.

Di akhir laporan ini, saya akan memberikan Anda suatu lelucon:

The Magician and the Parrot

A magician was working on a cruise ship.  Since the audience was different each week, the magician did the same tricks over and over again.

There was only one problem: The captain’s parrot saw the shows each week and began to understand how the magician did every trick.

Once he understood, he started shouting in the middle of the show, “Look, it’s not the same hat!” or, “Look, he’s hiding the flowers under the table!”  Or, “Hey, why are all the cards the ace of spades?”

The magician was furious but couldn’t do anything.  It was, after all, the captain’s parrot.

Then one stormy night on the Pacific, the ship unfortunately sank, drowning almost all who were on board.  The magician luckily found himself on a piece of wood floating in the middle of the sea, as fate would have it, with the parrot.

The stared at each other with hatred but did not utter a word.

This went on for a day … then two days, and then three days.  Finally on the fourth day, the parrot could not hold back any longer and said …

“OK, I give up.  Where’s the bloody ship?”

Selamat menjalani pekan ini, semoga berjalan sangat baik dan menguntungkan.

Dibuat 14 Januari 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Harga Emas Akan Melonjak pada 2013?

January 11th, 2013 No comments

“… Europe, Japan, and the United States have a declaration of war on their currencies.  The average American, Japanese, and European, must vastly increase their holdings in precious metals, and the (gold and silver) equities, starting now.  People are realizing this is an unprecedented scenario where all of these countries have been put on the life support of their central banks to perpetuate the illusion of solvency.  And when you get to that condition, there really is no limit to how high gold can go.  It wouldn’t surprise me if gold eventually goes to $10,000 an ounce or even higher because there is no limit to the productive capacity of central bankers to produce currency.  I think it would be more surprising if gold didn’t go to $10,000 an ounce.  When the US dollar loses its world reserve currency status and the US bond market collapse is in full swing, a $10,000 gold price may prove to be very conservative.”

-Michael Pento

Saya sudah berada kembali di belakang meja kerja untuk menulis laporan lagi. Dan mari kita lihat bagaimana perkembangan terakhir di pasar emas.

Meskipun harga emas mengalami tekanan sejak Oktober 2012 lalu, permintaan untuk investasi diperkirakan masih dan akan meningkat stabil.

Berikut adalah 3 tulisan Tyler Durden dari yang menunjukkan bukti bahwa potensi permintaan untuk emas masih besar.  Tidak hanya para bank sentral yang menambah emas dalam cadangan devisanya, tetapi juga investor ritel dan bahkan dana pensiun juga melakukannya:

1) Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves In Last 3 Months (December 20th)

With precious metal prices echoing 2011′s year-end plunge, it is perhaps worthwhile considering the bigger picture. To wit, Central banks in emerging markets have increased their purchases of gold in recent years to bolster their rapidly growing currency reserves as the global financial crisis unfolds. Brazil, until recently, held only 0.5% of its foreign reserves in gold, but as Bloomberg reports, the nation’s official holdings of gold now stand at 2.16 million troy ounces – double the 1.08 million ounces it held in August. Brazil’s foreign currency reserves grew USD807mm in November (during which the nation bought 472,000 ounces of gold) as “anecdotal reports suggest that demand from central banks will remain strong.” As one analyst opined, “Central banks will remain a source of demand in the gold market,” as is increasingly obvious in the chart below, “liquidity is paramount and gold will deliver.”

USD value of Brazil’s Gold reserves

Chart: Bloomberg

2) The Other “Mint” Campaign Starts Off With A Bang: US Mint Sells 50,000 Ounces Of Gold On First Day Of Year (January 4th)

And we’re off to the races. Despite, or maybe thanks to, the relentless collapse in paper gold prices, US retail continues to ignore the day to day fluctuations in the stated value of the shiny metal (most of it driven by the BIS’ Benoit Gilson), and instead has learned to take advantage of every drop to BTFD. As the US mint website reports, the very first day of 2013 saw a whopping 50,000 gold ounce sales, and another 7,000 on the second, which is nearly the entire amount sold by the mint in December, and just shy of half in all of January 2012. Which in turn means that gold raids are now becoming counterproductive: instead of disincentivizing retail purchases, they are merely accelerating them, in the process leading to ever more paper to physical currency conversion. The “trillion dollar platinum coin” may well be the dumbest idea around, but the “one ounce gold coin” idea is rapidly becoming the most popular one, shared by all who see that the only possible outcome for the “developed world” is more ceaseless devaluation of every paper currency in the world.

3) “If Just 1% Of Japanese Pension Assets Shift Into Gold, The Gold Market Would Explode” (January 8th)

Last night we reported that in the encroaching attempt to globalize the fiat ponzi regime, in Japan’s latest rush to crushTM (sounds even better than race to debase) its currency it would proceed to monetize even more debt, only not its own debt - a strategy that has failed miserably to stimulate inflation for the past 30 years – but that of Europe.

So far so good, and perfectly expected in a monetary lunatic asylum in which coining money without an appropriate collateral backing is actually considered sound monetary policy by Nobel prize winners.

What gives us some hope that there may be at least one sane voice left in the wilderness is the far less trumpeted news overnight that “Japanese pension funds, the world’s second-largest pool of retirement assets after the U.S., will more than double their gold holdings in the next two years as the new government pushes for a higher inflation target, according to an adviser to the funds.

Assets held by Japanese pension funds in gold-backed exchange-traded products may expand to 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) by 2015 from less than 45 billion yen at present.” The reason for the move is fear that Abe is actually able (unlike last time when his failure was accompanied by an inexplicable case of career-ending diarrhea) to hit his goal of 2% inflation, without in the process sending bond yields so high all tax revenue goes solely to cover interest expense on the JPY 1 quadrillion pyramid of debt and rising. Which, incidentally, according to many traders is the reason for the move higher in gold prices today.

From Bloomberg:

Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp., which introduced Japan’s first gold ETF in 2010, expects assets held in the product to double over the next several years from 26.2 billion yen as of Nov. 30. Global investors are holding a near-record amount in gold-backed ETPs that are valued at $139.6 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Assets held by corporate pension funds in Japan amounted to 72.24 trillion yen as of March 2012, declining 0.9 percent from a year earlier, according to Yasuo Sugeno, director at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. Of the total, about 72 billion yen were allocated to commodities including gold through hedge funds, he said Dec. 10.

Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan, the operator of the world’s largest pension fund with 113.6 trillion yen, stays away from commodity investment as 67 percent of their assets were allocated to Japanese bonds, Sugeno said.

Japanese pensions oversee $3.36 trillion, according to human-resource and consulting services company Towers Watson & Co. Corporate pension funds in Japan will diversify 72 trillion yen in assets after domestic stocks produced little return in the past two decades, according to Daiwa Institute of Research.

So after the rotation, paper gold holding will double to a whopping… 0.03% of all pension fund assets! Now imagine what happens to the price of gold if Japan does indeed succeed in generating inflation, and pension funds scramble to push 1, 2, 5% or more of their assets into gold. Sure enough:

Perhaps it is time for the punditry and the chatterbox media to start considering what happens not when the much anticipated rotation out of bonds and into stocks, which has not happened for 4 years now, and won’t, at least not until the government bond bubble finally pops which will only happen when the central banks finally lose control, but what happens if even a tiny amount of the global pension capital allocated to bonds and/or equities, is rotated into gold.

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima said. “If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold market would explode.”

Could not have said it better ourselves.

What Do the Charts Say?

Setidaknya 2 orang yakin bahwa kita mungkin sedang berada pada titik perubahan penting di pasar emas.  Yang pertama adalah Greg Schnell, pemilik gelar Chartered Market Technician (CMT) dan seorang Calgary Regional Director pada the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts.

Artikelnya yang berjudul GOLD-BOTTOM FISHING OR LOST WRECKAGE berisi tentang sejumlah grafik menarik yang menunjukkan sejumlah sinyal bullish:

“Gold has become pretty unloved. That in itself is usually bullish. This week we look at why it might be time to renew your interest in Gold and the miners.

First of all, let’s look at the Gold Miners. Here is a link to the live chart. Gold Miners Index.

Let’s start at the $BPGDM. First of all, the Bullish percent index is very close to the level it normally reverses at which is denoted by the green line. The index has 29 stocks in it, so each stock is more than 3% influence. It would only require 2 stocks to change the index below the line. So, getting into bullish territory.

In examining the chart information for more detail, I found a couple of interesting points. Let’s start with the RSI. There have been 4 times in the past 5 years where the index has dropped below the current level of 40. All of them produced nice trading rallies. It is clear that down at 40 is a pretty good area to look for a buying opportunity.

Next, the MACD histogram shows a deep push on momentum. This is the momentum of the Gold Miners index, not Gold. We have only had the selling momentum reach this level 7 times. This is one of the worst if you look at the area of the histogram over the last few months. It looks really bad. So that could be bad or good. However, the histogram recently seems to have bottomed out and made a higher low this week. That is important. I have drawn vertical lines where the histogram starts to improve. You can compare it to Gold’s price at the bottom panel. Pretty nice location to start buying. The April to July 2012 period was harder to call as the histogram didn’t go very deep.

Next is seasonality. I marked the vertical lines green if the rally started near the first of the year. Look at how strong those rally points were. I dotted the one in 2008 because of the trauma that was ensuing that particular year. While it did not happen in January, it did start near the beginning of the year. The seasonality factor looks to be huge. 4 for 4 in rallies for the beginning of the year. 3 rallies started around July.

Continuing down is the final panel where I have $GOLD plotted in Gold color. I have annotated the chart with some blue trend lines. The solid lines are equidistant from the middle as shown by the black lines. The dotted lines are best fit based on the trends in the price. This could be due to a log scale chart which would normally be used for a multiyear chart with so much price movement. What I see from here is that GOLD is at an area that is near the lower extreme of distance from the trend. The blow off top of 2011 was a clear exaggerated move outside the trend. Could we see that to the downside still? Anything is possible. But this chart shows a lot of good reasons for a trade right here.

Let’s look at a chart of $GOLD on the daily. Here is a link. $GOLD

Recently, the RSI has been improving. The GDX:GLD ratio is rising which is very good to see. The downward sloping bullish wedge is also a positive signal to help spot a reversal. Friday’s reversal candle was textbook on higher volume as a lot of stops were tested on the weekly chart below. The MACD appears to be trying to make a higher low while price is making a lower low. The force down was not as significant on this push so that too is bullish. I have shortened the time to 6 months so the price action is clear, but the shelf back in August is at a very important level. This level has marked support and resistance for 15 months. You can see that on the weekly below.

Here is a Weekly of $GOLD. $GOLD Weekly

On this weekly chart, the RSI is holding 40 which is excellent. The purple shaded area represents relative strength compared to the $SPX and is declining so that is not a good sign.

$Gold looked to find support at the horizontal line of $1625. This line has been a support resistance zone for the last 15 months.  The $GOLD price also tested stops below the 2 year uptrend line this week. This is a very nice place for the chart to reverse, especially with seasonality.

The MACD is making higher highs in October compared to March 2012 even though the price was the same. That is a bullish divergence.

One thing that looks weak on this chart is the full sto’s falling below 50. They really need to find a floor right here or that would mark a significant negative trend reversal.

This looks like a very interesting place to enter a gold related trade to the upside. Like all great entry points, they have significant potential to fail if no new major investors join the falling trade. For the gold followers, it has been a very difficult trade and they would sure like to see some upside reprieve.

In conclusion, I like the seasonality and the bullish candle. We’ll see how 2013 treats the gold trade.”

Berikutnya Warren Bevan, seorang penulis lepas di mingguan “Precious Metal Stock Review”, yang yakin bahwa emas akan tertahan di areal double bottom dan mengakhiri downtrend-nya.

“Gold futures themselves were totally flat on the week which means that the important weekly chart printed what is termed a Doji bar.  These bars indicate indecision and often times signify a trend change is coming.

Friday saw a huge volume day reversal with gold closing at highs of the day after putting in a double bottom.  This is very bullish and has to have me say a bottom is now in for gold. (emphasis mine)

This is painting the tape in plain view and many won’t notice it.

I am going to go out on a limb here and say the low is in.  In fact I’ll go even further out on that limb and say I think the low is in for all of 2013 in gold.

Of course I’m wrong all the time and that is why using stops is key.

I think it’s safe to get some physical gold here but if trading keep stops pretty tight and enter the trade using intraday charts at proper buy points.”

Di akhir laporan ini, saya akan menampilkan sejumlah gambar:

Sementara, emas tidak hanya dibeli karena nilainya yang tidak akan habis dari waktu ke waktu. Seorang dari India berusia 32 tahun, Datta Phuge, berpikir bahwa kemeja emas seharga $25 ribu membuatnya dapat memikat wanita: “I know I am not the best looking man in the world but surely no woman could fail to be dazzled by this shirt?”

Source: Daily Mail

Dibuat Tanggal 10 Januari 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Outlook Pasar Emas 2013

January 3rd, 2013 No comments

“The end game is an inflationary/currency crisis, dislocation across credit and derivative markets, and the transition to a new monetary system, with a new reserve currency replacing the dollar.  This makes gold and silver the “go-to” assets for capital preservation.”

-Paul Mylchreest

Pertama-tama yang ingin saya ucapkan adalah semoga seluruh pembaca tulisan ini memperoleh keberuntungan dan keberhasilan yang terbaik di tahun 2013 ini!

Meskipun harga emas senantiasa naik dalam 12 tahun terakhir, saya tetap berpandangan sangat bullish – yang mungkin dapat mengejutkan banyak orang dan akan menjadi salah satu aset dengan kinerja terbaik di tahun 2013 yang akan kita jalani ini.

Banyak investor awalnya masih berpandangan bahwa logam mulia ini tak lebih merupakan ‘peninggalan masa lalu’ yang tidak akan produktif dan juga tidak memiliki tingkat keuntungan, sehingga bagi mereka enggan untuk membelinya. Namun secara perlahan namun pasti orang-orang pun mulai sadar pada kenyataan bahwa emas merupakan ‘tempat berlindung’ mereka saat ekonomi sedang berada dalam ketidakpastian.

Terlebih jika inflasi mulai menunjukkan kenaikannya, dan menurut saya itu akan terjadi, maka emas akan menjadi salah satu aset terbaik agar daya beli Anda tetap terpelihara. Yang tak kalah penting, jangan lupa bahwa logam mulia – terutama emas dan perak – adalah aset moneter yang sudah ratusan tahun berfungsi sebagai alat tukar (uang).

Malah menurut pemikiran saya, emas merupakan satu-satunya REAL MONEY (alat tukar sesungguhnya) yang mampu mempertahankan nilainya dari waktu ke waktu, sementara uang (yang biasa kita gunakan) atau diistilahkan dengan fiat currencies akan berakhir sebagai kertas tak berharga karena ulah bank-bank sentral.  Jika Anda tidak percaya, coba baca buku mengenai sejarah moneter maka Anda akan menemukan sendiri mengapa uang kertas akan kembali pada nilai intrinsiknya, yakni nol.

Sebelum kita melihat sejumlah prospek untuk tahun ke depan, secara singkat saya ingin mengingatkan Anda bahwa Amerika Serikat secara teknis terhindar dari fiscal cliff.  Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge juga dengan singkat mengulas hal ini di hari terakhir 2012 lalu dalam tulisannya yang berjudul US To Officially Go Over The Fiscal Cliff:

“As we forecast back in November, it is now official that the House will not vote on any deal out of the Senate, assuming there is one, later today, which means America will officially slide off the Fiscal Cliff. And now cue everyone being very hopeful and optimistic a deal will get done momentarily, if not sooner, in 2013. Of course, we all know just how far optimism takes America’s dysfunctional Congress. The biggest irony in all of this is that the only winners today were the much hated “1%”-ers, whose taxes may or may not go up, who just got to book major year end profits on this last minute ramp. The remainder of America’s population can quietly look forward to 2013 with “hope” and “optimism” that in 2013 Congress will finally stop being dysfunctional. Good luck. Oh, and before we forget, America just breached its debt ceiling: now the pillaging of various government retirement funds begins.

Finally, since the US is now officially over the cliff, does this mean that Ben Bernanke can finally get to work? Recall his words:

“if the economy actually went off the fiscal cliff, our assessment, the CBO’s assessment, outside forecasters, all think that that would have very significant adverse effects on the economy and on the unemployment rate. And so, on the margin, we would try to do what we could. We would perhaps increase a bit.”

Is it time to increase QE just “a bit” then?”

Kembali lagi ke emas, yang kini mulai menarik jika dilihat dari sudut pandang fundamental maupun teknikalnya. Peter Krauth, dari Money Morning, baru-baru ini menguraikan 5 kekuatan yang akan mendorong emas menembus rekor tertingginya kembali dalam tulisannya yang berjudul 2013 Gold Price Forecast: Expect Gold to Deliver Another Record-Setting Year:

“No two bull markets are ever the same, and gold is no exception.

During the last secular gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose from $35 in 1968 all the way to $200 by late 1974.

Then the unthinkable happened. Between late 1974 and mid-1976, gold prices were cut in half, dropping from about $200 to $100.

At the time, many gold investors sold out in disgust, never to return.

But then a funny thing occurred. Gold prices started to climb again, rising from $100 in mid-1976 all the way to $800 by January 1980.

And anyone who was fortunate enough to own gold at $35 earned better than 20 times their investment in just 12 years.

Twenty-one years later, a new bull market began. Since 2001, gold has consistently performed in what now appears to be a record-setting run.

In fact, since 2001 the average return on gold is now just shy of 18% annually over the last 11 years.

I know of no other major asset that has turned in this kind of performance — ever. This rise in gold prices is simply unmatched.

This is what a stealth bull market looks like, one that I fully expect will keep powering on.

Now, let’s have a look at where gold prices might be headed in 2013…

2013 Gold Price Forecast

Gold began the year at $1,600 an ounce. Should we get average returns in this calendar year as well, gold could finish 2012 around $1,880. At those levels, gold prices would begin 2013 just shy of the all-time high set last year, right around the $1,900 mark.

If we assume an average return again next year, then gold could reach $2,200 or better in 2013. In fact, I believe $2,200 gold is quite likely in 2013.

After all, none of the fundamentals supporting gold prices have gone away. Instead, they’ve only become even more entrenched.

In fact, here are five factors I’ve identified that will power the gold bull market upwards for several more years to come.

The Feverish Growth of Fiat Money: Take a look at this chart. It’s a picture that tells you what you need to know about fiat money. As you can see, the U.S. and most of the developed world is printing money much faster than the amount of new gold being brought to the market. Here’s the thing: The chart only shows you what was created in an hour. Imagine what the same chart would look like if it were a year. Better yet, how about five years — or more. The bottom line is that the printing presses are bullish for gold.

The Feverish Demand For Gold: As central banks continue to print, individuals are continuing to feverishly buy gold, especially in the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, which in 2002 accounted for 23% of world gold demand. Today, just these two nations alone make up nearly half of all demand at 47%. This is just the beginning.

Even Central Banks Are Buying: Central banks, especially in developing nations, are buying and hoarding gold at a breakneck pace. So far in 2012, they’ve bought 493 tons, already surpassing last year’s 457 tons. Many believe this is part of a long-term trend, providing solid support for gold prices in 2013.

High Demand Meets Short Supply: The other side of the equation is supply. The gold mining industry is struggling to find more gold. According to Barrick Gold Corp.’s (NYSE: ABX) CEO, the industry as a whole spent a record $8 billion in 2011 to explore for gold. And even with such massive resources on the hunt for this precious metal, discoveries are declining. Bloomberg reported that in 1991 there were 11 gold discoveries, yet in 2011 there were only three. Of course, you know what happens when there’s an imbalance like this-prices rise.

My Favorite Reason For $2,200 Gold in 2013: Here’s another reason to be bullish: The vast majority of analysts consistently forecast too low and are even predicting declining gold prices farther out. But guess what?… They’ve been consistently wrong for years. Take a look:

The truth is that signs the yellow metal’s bull market will soon end are scarce indeed. Meanwhile, breakeven costs continue to rise among gold producers, meaning the price floor keeps rising.

That’s why I expect gold prices to set a new all-time record nominal price in 2013, and to reach the $2,200 level in the process. Smart investors will embrace this trend.”

Seperti Anda dapat lihat dari grafik mingguan pada tulisan Peter Krauth di atas, emas sudah mengalami kenaikan dalam 11 tahun.  Tetapi menurut saya ini baru merupakan awalnya, karena fase ke-3 untuk bullish trend, yakni fase yang akseleratif, masih belum terjadi.

Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan Managing Partner dari Matterhorn Asset Management AG (MAM) dan GoldSwitzerland yang berbasis di Zurich, juga berpandangan demikian serta menyebutkan sejumlah faktor yang akan mendukung kenaikan emas dalam tulisannya berikut:

What catalyst will trigger Gold’s parabolic rise

Seldom in history are investment decisions self-evident. But today we have such a situation.

Gold is the only real and the only honest money. Gold reflects governments’ deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. For the last 100 years since the creation of the Fed and especially since 1971 when the US dollar was no longer backed by gold, paper currencies have been on a road to destruction. They have lost 97-99% since 1913 and around 80% since 1999.

In 2013 we will enter the final phase which eventually will lead to the total destruction of most paper currencies. The two principal factors leading to this are: (emphasis is mine)

  • Exponential rise in government deficits

  • Unlimited money printing

There is absolutely no chance that governments can or will stop the deficit spending. Any government even mentioning the word austerity will be thrown out very quickly. And even if serious austerity measures were attempted, they would just lead to a spiraling downturn of the economy creating even bigger deficits.

The consequences of the massive money printing that the world will experience will be:

  • Collapsing currencies

  • Hyperinflationary depression

  • Social unrest

  • Wars

So will these events happen in a long drawn-out fashion or will it all happen abruptly? Both the technical and fundamental setup we are seeing now makes it more likely that events will unravel quickly. The fragility of the world economy is greater than any time in history. Major nations such as Japan, USA, UK and most EU countries are bankrupt and living on borrowed time. And the banking system is only surviving due to false valuation of toxic assets. The situation is like an avalanche being triggered with that last snowflake being enough to set the whole thing off. The trigger could be anything from a dollar collapse, to Japan imploding or Greece exiting the EU. It doesn’t even have to be a major event due to the total instability of the world economy and financial system.

No one has any possibility to influence these inevitable consequences, neither governments or central banks nor individuals. The only measures that individuals can take are to protect their own assets and their family. For investors who are fortunate enough to have savings, the absolutely best way to protect wealth is to own physical gold (and possibly some silver) and to store it outside the banking system.

The case for gold as the ultimate wealth preservation investment is irrefutable. Whilst paper money and all assets that were financed by the credit bubble will collapse in real terms, gold will continue to represent stable purchasing power as it has done during 5,000 years.

For anyone who doubts what will happen to gold as government deficits surge and money printing accelerates, just look at the graph below. This shows US government debt against the price of gold. A chart of world central bank balance sheets exploding gives the same picture. And the picture tells us that a parabolic rise of debt and gold is likely to be next. This fits also with Alf Field’s technical projection that the next target is $4,500-$5,000 for gold. We could see that target already in 2013.

For anyone who believes that gold is overbought and overvalued – DON’T!  As I have already said, gold just reflects the other side of paper currency destruction and will continue to do so. We recommended up to 50% allocation to physical gold in 2002 at $300. Today we would see 50% as an absolute minimum. No other asset will give the same protection as gold.

So 2013 could be an Annus Horribilis for the world economy, the financial system, as well as socially and geopolitically. Everyone will be affected but being prepared and protected will make it easier to deal with.”

Di akhir tulisan saya, akan diketengahkan sejumlah pesan yang terekam antara pilot dan pusat kendali menara pesawat:

Tower: “Delta 351, you have traffic at 10 o’clock, 6 miles!”

Delta 351: “Give us another hint!  We have digital watches!”

Tower: “TWA 2341, for noise abatement, turn right 45 degrees.”

TWA 2341: “Center, we are at 35,000 feet.  How much noise can we make up here?”

Tower: “Sir, have you ever heard the noise a 747 makes when it hits a 727?”

From an unknown aircraft waiting in a very long takeoff queue: “I’m f…ing bored!”

Ground Traffic Control: “Last aircraft transmitting, identify yourself immediately!”

Unknown aircraft: “I said I was f…ing bored, not f…ing stupid!”

A DC-10 had come in a little hot and thus had an exceedingly long rollout after touching down.

San Jose Tower noted: “American 751, make a hard right turn at the end of the runway, if you are able.  If you are not able, take the Guadeloupe exit off Highway 101, make a right at the lights and return to the airport.”

A Pan Am 727 flight, waiting for start clearance in Munich, overheard the following:

Lufthansa (in German): “Ground, what is our start clearance time?”

Ground (in English): “If you want an answer, you must speak in English.”

Lufthansa (in English): “I am a German, flying a German airplane, in Germany.  Why must I speak English?”

Unknown voice from another plane (in a beautiful British accent): “Because you lost the bloody war!”

The German air controllers at Frankfurt Airport are renowned as a short-tempered lot.  They not only expect one to know one’s gate parking location, but how to get there without any assistance from them.  So it was with some amusement that we (a Pan Am 747) listened to the following exchange between Frankfurt ground control and a British Airways 747, call sign Speedbird 206.

Speedbird 206: “Frankfurt, Speedbird 206!  Clear of active runway.”

Ground: “Speedbird 206.  Taxi to gate Alpha One-Seven.”

The BA 747 pulled onto the main taxiway and slowed to a stop.

Ground: “Speedbird, do you not know where you are going?”

Speedbird 206: “Stand by, Ground, I’m looking up our gate location now.”

Ground (with quite arrogant impatience): “Speedbird 206, have you not been to Frankfurt before?”

Speedbird 206 (coolly): “Yes, twice in 1944, but it was dark – and I didn’t land.

Dibuat Tanggal 02 Januari 2013

Categories: Emas Tags: