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Apakah Bottom Emas sudah (hampir) dekat? (Bagian III)

March 8th, 2013 No comments

“The catalyst for a spike into the $2,500 to $3,000 price range will be an announcement by China, probably in late 2013 or 2014, that they have acquired 4,000 tonnes or more in their official reserve position.  This will put China on an equal footing with the US in terms of a gold-to-GDP ratio and validate gold as the real foundation of the international monetary system. Once that position is validated, gold will move to the $7,000 range in 2015 and beyond.  Any lower price level is deflationary and must be avoided at all costs by central banks.  The key is that the US and IMF do not want gold to achieve its full potential price until China has acquired its appropriate “share” of official gold reserves.  Any other outcome is unacceptable to China.”

– Jim Rickards

“My advice is to hold all gold positions and wait patiently for the correction to end.  Just before the huge 1979-80 surge, we saw a big ‘clean out’ correction in gold.  I believe history is about to repeat.”

– Richard Russell

Setelah 2 hari lalu membahas kemungkinan level rendah yang dicapai pada fase tekanan emas saat ini, selanjutnya mari kita sejumlah target yang mungkin dicapai emas dalam jangka pendek dan menengah ke depan. Jika memang harga emas mampu bangkit untuk naik kembali, seberapa jauh pergerakan yang akan dilaluinya?

Bagi yang belum mengetahui proyeksi dari Dr. Stephen Leeb, seorang Chairman & Chief Investment Officer di Leeb Capital Management, yang mengatakan bahwa emas akan menuju ke level $20.000!  Maka dapat membaca penjelasannya berikut, dari sebuah wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) pada 26 Februari 2013:

“There is no question that Bernanke pulled the rug out from under the gold bears today. Their argument has been that the Fed is starting to turn a little bit more hawkish. We had some propaganda coming out which indicated the Fed was going to end QE at some point this year.

 

All of the sudden Ben Bernanke is in front of Congress today basically saying, ‘Hey, wait a minute, this (QE) thing is working. Risks of deflation have gone down dramatically, and we don’t see any major risk of getting out of these bonds.’ Well, give me a break.

The Fed is going to continue with its easy money policy for as long as the eye can see. This is important when looking at the recent action in gold.

90% to 95% of the smash in gold was related to the propaganda coming out of the Fed that they would end QE, and that is complete nonsense. It’s just not going to happen no matter how much disinformation and propaganda comes out of the Fed.

But Bernanke is also trying to say, ‘We have a plan for getting rid of it (QE).’ Well, I’d love to have a dollar for every politician that’s said they have a plan. There is no plan. Who is going to buy $3 trillion worth of US debt? There is an old saying, ‘You can always get out if you want to. The question is what the price is?’ The price in this case will most likely be 20% interest rates and inflation that goes through the roof. The Fed can fool some of the investors some of the time, but not all of them all of the time.

I think the gold market is waking up to this. There is no plan for getting out of this. There can’t be a plan for getting out of this. The reality is the Fed is getting deeper and deeper into trouble here. So the Fed will continue doing what it’s doing, and that’s a recipe for some sort of Armageddon, meaning some sort of point where the Fed ultimately can’t sell their bonds. At that point we will see massive inflation. I hate to say it, but that’s where we are headed.

This is when the real bull market in gold will start. If you look at gold as a percentage of reserves, it has remained at only about 1.5% of reserves since the beginning of the century. If you go back to the 1970s, gold was about 10% of overall reserves. This time around, because the conditions are much worse than in the 1970s, it’s possible that gold could reach 20% of reserves.

Because there is a compounding effect each year from the money printing, this takes gold to levels you don’t even want to talk about. We are talking about $20,000 gold, and possibly more. This is why when people look back on this gold correction it will just be a blip on a chart that you will need a magnifying glass to see.”

Namun tak lengkap rasanya melihat outlook emas tanpa mengetengahkan pandangan dari seorang profesional, dan sekaligus seorang analis terkemuka di Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick.  Dia adalah salah satu analis favorit saya dan prediksinya saat bull market emas senantiasa dinanti pelaku pasar.

Fitzpatrick yakin bahwa prospeknya untuk kenaikan ganda harga emas dari levelnya saat ini mungkin akan terlalu ‘konservatif’. Dalam tulisan terbarunya mengetengahkan 6 grafik emas yang menarik yang menggambarkan potensi kenaikan emas luar biasa ke depannya:

“We continue to maintain our bullish medium-to-long-term view on gold against not just the USD but paper currencies in general. At the same time, we believe that the equity market rally is very mature and susceptible to a deeper correction. Within this dynamic we believe we are closing in on a period that will see Gold significantly outperform most currencies and asset classes going forward.

We continue to believe that the present pattern in gold over the past 17 months remains similar to that seen during the 16 month consolidation in 2006-2007 before it moved higher again. Very strong support continues to exist in the $1,520-$1,530 area and we still believe this to be a platform for the next leg higher (see chart above).

A move back above the $1,625-1,640 area is the first objective in this respect, followed by $1,670- 1,700. However, it is a break of the $1,790-1,800 area on a weekly close basis that would signal a topside breakout. A move towards $2,055-2,060 would be the target on that break.

A move similar to that seen in the 2007-2008 breakout would suggest as high as $2,400-2,500, while our longer term target (3-4 years’ time) remains in the $3,400-3,500 area. This target comes from extrapolating the percentage change of the 1970-1980 bull market in gold, but extracting the final 5 week surge in Dec. 1979 – Jan. 1980 caused by the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

Without fiscal responsibility, as forced on Congress by Volcker in the early 1980’s, it is hard to see how one can argue for a sustainable down move in Gold. As it stands, the present chart suggests that gold should return to the high of the trend. What if you believe, as some people suggest, that by the end of this political cycle in late 2016 we are looking at a debt limit around USD 21 to 22 trillion (see chart below)?

Correlates amazingly closely to our $3,400-3,500 target on Gold in a similar timeframe.

This is important in showing that the gold trend is one of appreciating against paper currencies (Not just the USD). If one looks at the low of the USD-index posted in March of 2008, it is now over 15% higher. During the same period gold is over 70% higher against the USD. Bottom line is that gold has outperformed an appreciating USD over that time.

This also serves to emphasize that our view of both the USD-Index and gold heading higher in the future is not inconsistent. We expect gold to continue to outperform paper currencies but for the USD to be a relative outperformer in the paper currency world.

(Japanese yen gold) has already traded to new trend highs in recent weeks although remains far from the all-time high posted in January 1980 (see chart below) above 200,000 (Over 35% above here).

Gold has strongly outperformed a very bullish fixed income market over more than a decade with the present pattern once again looking like a consolidation before higher (see chart below).

So bottom line: We expect the medium to long term trend of Gold appreciation to continue. We expect this appreciation to be not just against the USD, but most paper currencies as the World continues to try and print their way out of this mess.

We expect gold to in fact outperform most asset classes although crude (Brent) looks like it could perform even better. It is worth noting that even absent that final surge (in 1980), the gold price went up by a multiple of 5 from 1976-1979 which makes our expectation of a doubling in price over the next 3 years look, if anything, conservative.”

Laporan emas terakhir kali ini datang dari Approximity di Jerman, yang berisi 2 grafik emas yang juga menarik untuk diperhatikan beserta ulasan-ulasan mengapa harga emas diproyeksikannya akan naik hingga $4.866 dalam 2 tahun ke depan.

“They say history does not repeat, but it rhymes sometimes.  Ever since gold assumed its multi-decade low in 1999 (the infamous Brown Bottom) and then, a year or two later, started its rise in a now more than a decade long bull market, there have been five prominent price spikes: May of 2001 with $288.35, on February of 2003 with $385.00, on May of 2006 with $725.75, on March of 2008 with $1,023.50, and on September of 2011 with $1,896.50.

Expressed differently, they seem to come in pairs.  Furthermore, the rise within the pairs (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) was 34% and 41%, while from one pair to the next (2 to 3 and 4 to 5), if we assume that the most recent fifth spike belongs to a pair as well, it was 89% and 85%.  If we take the middle of these respective moves, and also extrapolate the times between them into the future, we could try and guess what a sixth and a seventh price spike could look like (see also chart below).  Our guess would be June of 2013 at $2,603.37 (spike 6) and January of 2015 at $4,865.73 (spike 7).  So, should you be surprised if you would see a $1,000 move in gold in the first half of 2013?  We think you shouldn’t.

The chart below shows one of the potentially most important cycles in macroeconomics.  It plots the Blue Chips of the U.S. industry (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) priced in ounces of gold.  The chart shows that when one real asset (industry) is priced in another real asset (gold), one does not get ever increasing prices, but instead major price CYCLES.  The chart implies that the amplitude of these DJIA:Gold cycles (possibly due to the increasing degree of leverage in the system) has ever grown since December 23, 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act established the second U.S. central bank, the “Federal Reserve” as we know it today.  A target of the DJIA:Gold ratio below 1:1 seems possible.”

Dan di akhir laporan ini, saya kembali menghadirkan sebuah gambar lucu agar tetap ceria menjalani hari ini walaupun apa yang terjadi:

Dibuat Tanggal 06 Maret 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Bottom Emas sudah (hampir) dekat? (Bagian II)

March 8th, 2013 No comments

“… the Federal Reserve was established 100 years ago.  Since that time, the US dollar has lost 95% of its buying power.  Paper currency is just that: a paper IOU from a government that is decreed by the ruling class to be worth something.  History has proven time and time again that governments cannot control themselves and will eventually devalue that paper to the point of being worthless.  Only gold and silver have held their value through thousands of years, seen hundreds of governments rise and fall, and hundreds of currencies collapse. For thousands of years, no government in the history of man has been capable of replacing its everlasting value with its current flavor of paper money.  Gold is still considered the ultimate value and hedge against inflation throughout the entire world.  A one-ounce gold or silver coin is recognizable value, no matter what country you may happen to be in.”

– Dennis Miller, editor of Miller’s Money Forever

 

 

Quote of the month

“You see, Maria, I want to tell you I buy gold because I am fearful. I am sorry to say, Maria, you do not own any gold and you are in grave danger because you don’t own any gold.”

– Gloom, Doom and Boom’s Marc Faber in response to CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo’s asking him why he will never stop buying gold.

 

“Gold is forever.  It is beautiful, useful, and never wears out.  Small wonder that gold has been prized over all else, in all ages, as a store of value thatwill survive the travails of life and the ravages of time.”

– James Blakely

Sebelum kita melihat sejumlah grafik menarik, saya ingin mengingatkan Anda mengapa emas akan menjadi aset yang akan terus bertahan ketika aset-aset lain berjatuhan.

Laporan singkat yang pertama datang dari Mac Slavo, editor di SHTFplan.com, yang menjelaskan kepada kita mengenai: “The Number One Reason to Invest in Gold…”:

“With the U.S. economy having once again dropped into negative recessionary growth, currency wars around the world heating up through direct and indirect devaluations, and trillion dollar fiscal deficits piling on, how is it possible that the stock market, a key measure of economic health for many Americans, is touching near all time highs?

Marin Katusa, Chief Strategist at Casey Research, suggests that this effect can be traced to monetary machinations that are happening behind the scenes, where few people are willing to look.

“Because they’re printing and making the availability of money so easy, the market is really confused right now,” says Katusa.

The reality is that literally trillions of dollars have been borrowed and printed to bail out the United States and Europe, and much of that money has been injected into stock markets to give the appearance of recovery.

It is, at best, an illusory effect.

Given that more people than ever before are out of work, over half of American households are dependent on some form of government disbursement to survive, and prices for essential goods like food and energy are consistently rising, it’s only a matter of time before confusion in financial markets turns to panic.

And when it does, just as we’ve seen throughout history, only real, tangible assets will be of value.

One such asset that has always maintained real value in times of calamity is gold.

Despite arguments that gold doesn’t grow like typical modern day investments and simply sits in a vault gathering dust, according to Marin Katusa in a recent interview with Future Money Trends, there is one key reason for why it should be in your diversified basket of goods.

The number one reason to invest in gold is insurance.

Because of the massive liquidity and the dilution of, not just the US and not just Bernanke, but all of the major countries – they are a printing press… The main reason to invest is because gold is money.

Before they had fiat currencies – that’s the currencies like today… there was gold.

The Romans. The Egyptians. The Babylonians.

For thousands of years they used gold before they used these fiat currencies.

And, every time in history a fiat currency ends in disaster.

We have recent examples. If you look at what happened to Yugoslavia, or Zimbabwe, or even Germany with their fiat currencies… gold always holds true value.

That’s why we believe gold is a true, original money.

I think at least you can see with gold, it is the insurance policy to bet against the bankers.

Watch at YouTube

With all of this money – literally hundreds of billions of dollars – being thrown into stock markets by leading financial institutions that were just a few years ago on the brink of insolvency, there are massive price distortions happening across the board. This includes rising stock markets, one of the key benefactors of the Federal Reserve’s printing press.

Another not so positive effect (at least not for the American people) are ever increasing prices in the free market, something that Katusa says is going to continue:

[There is a] One hundred percent [chance of inflation].

You can guarantee these three things in life: Taxes, Death, and Inflation.

Inflation is coming… I just don’t know if it’s next week, or in six months, or twelve months.

But the reality is, it’s coming.

That’s why if you have a percentage in gold, you’re covered.

It’s an insurance policy.

When all fiat monetary exchange mechanisms fail, only one asset has stood the test of time as a store of wealth.

Gold is and always has been an insurance policy.

It will be the only thing left standing when the U.S. dollar, the Euro, the Yen, and other paper currencies are inflated to oblivion by their respective governments.

Make sure you have some when that happens.”

Selanjutnya, investment director dari PFP Group, Tim Price, menulis essay yang luar biasa bulan lalu, dan masuk dalam kategori yang HARUS DIBACA, yang berjudul What Warren Buffett Doesn’t Understand About Investing:

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”
– Warren Buffett

“Warren Buffett’s aphorism has been rightly celebrated. But to be a true value investor, it helps to have values.

Courtesy of near-zero interest rates and global competitive currency debauchery, it is increasingly difficult to assess the value of anything, as denominated in units of anything else.

To put it another way, the business of investing rationally becomes problematic when a significant number of market participants are pursuing maximum nominal returns without a second thought as to the real (inflation-adjusted) value of those returns.

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass alluded to this problem recently when he pointed out that the Zimbabwean stock market had been the last decade’s best performer, but that owning the entire index would only buy you three eggs.

It is not just Zimbabwe. Markets everywhere, in just about everything, have now decoupled not just from their underlying economies but from reality.

There are signs that Buffett himself has decoupled from the value investing philosophy that made him the world’s most successful investor. Berkshire Hathaway is paying almost 20 percent more than Heinz stock’s all-time high in the deal announced last week, and the equivalent of 21 times 2013 earnings as opposed to the 16 times multiple which is the last decade’s average.

Say what you like about the business, but Buffett has not bought it cheaply.

To us, the more intriguing aspect to Warren Buffett is that he gives every indication of not understanding money. As he says, gold “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

Note that phrase: “It has no utility”. But utility, usefulness, purpose, value comes down to context. Context is everything. As Adam Fergusson bleakly put it in his moving account of Weimar Inflation in ‘When Money Dies’,

“In hyperinflation, a kilo of potatoes was worth, to some, more than the family silver; a side of pork more than the grand piano. A prostitute in the family was better than an infant corpse; theft was preferable to starvation; warmth was finer than honour, clothing more essential than democracy, food more needed than freedom.”

Buffett is chained to a rock of convention. He is hardwired to pursue money and he is very good at that pursuit. But he is not well programmed to consider the relative utility of money or its attributes as a lasting store of value.

Since 2000, the price of gold has outperformed the price of Berkshire Hathaway stock by over 300%. No particular surprise, then, that he should hate the stuff.

Likewise, many investors are losing faith in gold on the basis that its price in US dollars has recently declined. Context is everything. Express the price of gold in another currency, the Japanese Yen, and gold looks relatively buoyant:

So it comes down to what sort of money you want. And in an environment of competitive currency devaluation, it’s an important choice to make.

In making that decision, this helpful chart is used by fund managers at Stratton Street Capital to help assess sovereign credit quality. They suggest, and we believe, that it also has merit in assessing likely currency movements too.

In a global deleveraging that is likely to persist for some years, the heavily indebted countries (the darker colors in the chart above) will desperately need to attract foreign capital to help service their heavy debt loads. And in order to do so, they will likely devalue their currencies.

But one currency it doesn’t highlight is gold. There is an increasingly disorderly currency war going on out there, and the advantage of gold is clear– they can’t print it, they can’t default on it, and there will always be demand for it.

Simply put, in the global currency wars, owning gold is like abandoning the battlefield altogether.

Setelah Clive Maund memberikan penjelasan yang meyakinkan dalam laporan sebelumnya, bahwa kita kemungkinan sudah atau hampir di dekat low (historis) emas, Toby Connor yang adalah penulis GoldScents, sebuah blog finansial yang khusus membahas secular bull market emas, yang menyatakan bahwa kita sudah dekat dengan Major Top in Stocks & Major Bottom in Gold:

“For months and months now I’ve been warning traders that QE3&4 were going to have a major effect on stocks. I knew that analysts claiming each new QE was having less and less affect would not apply to this latest round of quantitative easing.

I was confident the latest counterfeiting operation by the Fed would push stocks to at least to test the 2007 highs, and I really expect we will see a marginal break above that level sometime this year – probably by the end of the month. My current guess is that we will get a ‘sell the news’ type of event as soon as the sequestration can is kicked down the road and that will mark the top of this particular intermediate cycle.

Make no mistake though we are still in a secular bear market. Stocks are testing their all-time highs at the same time earnings are in decline, GDP has turned negative, and unemployment is starting to tick up.

It has been my expectation that the stock market would put in a final top sometime this year. I also expect this will be a very extended and difficult topping process lasting months if not a year or more.

During this topping process I expect to see an inflationary surge very similar to what happened in the oil markets during the 2007 top.

Notice the breakdown in early 2007 that convinced everyone that the bull market in oil was finished. This set up a massive parabolic move into the 2008 blow off top.

This time however I don’t think it’s going to be oil leading the inflationary charge. In order to generate that kind of move we need something that has formed a long consolidation similar to what happened in oil, and preferably an asset that has declined long enough and far enough to push sentiment to negative extremes capable of convincing everyone that the bull market is over. Those are the conditions necessary in order to generate a massive parabolic move over the next two years.

The only asset that qualifies in my opinion is the precious metals markets.

The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies. Gold is just creating the conditions necessary for its next leg up, similar to what oil did in early 2007.

A very similar pattern to what happened in oil is also unfolding in the gold market. I’m talking about the T-1 pattern that formed in oil during `07 -`08.

Here are the rules of T-1 pattern for those not familiar:

T1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected.

I think the gold chart is setting up to produce a monstrous T-1 pattern with a target around $3200 sometime in the late 2014 or early 2015.

Investors just need to get through the bottoming process of this yearly cycle low. Considering that gold is now on the 15th week of its intermediate cycle, which usually lasts about 18-25 weeks, we should be getting close.

Actually we are probably closer than it appears by that previous statement. The last intermediate cycle ran a bit long at 25 weeks. Long cycles are usually followed by a short cycle. So I would expect this cycle to run a bit short at 16-18 weeks.

All in all, I expect a final bottom sometime in the next 5-10 days. And once that bottom has formed gold should be ready to break out of the consolidation zone it has been in over the last year and a half and get busy delivering the second leg of that T-1 pattern.”

Agar tetap ceria, di akhir laporan ini saya kembali mengetengahkan gambar yang sangat lucu – yang terus membuat saya tertawa saat melihatnya – serta pantun jenaka dari William Banzai:

These stoners are blowing some smoke
They’re hiding the fact that they’re broke
The only contagion
Is growth that they’re stagin’
It’s time drugged-up sheeple awoke!

The Limerick King

Dibuat Tanggal 05 Maret 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Bottom Emas Sudah (Hampir) Dekat? (Bagian I)

March 5th, 2013 No comments

“If you look back through time at inflationary crises – from ancient Rome, to Ming China, to revolutionary France and America or to Weimar Germany – you’ll find that uncontrolled inflations are caused by overleveraged governments which resorted to printing as the easiest way to avoid explicit default (whereas inflation is merely an implicit default).  Some argue that equities hedge against inflation because they are a claim on real assets, but most of the great bear market troughs of the 20th century occurred during inflationary periods.  A more obvious inflation hedge is inflation linked bonds, but governments can default on these too.  More exotic insurance products like sovereign CDSs, inflation caps, long-dated swaps or upside yield curve volatility all have their intuitive merits.  But they all come with counterparty risk.  Physical gold doesn’t. Indeed, during the ‘6000 year gold bubble’ no one has defaulted on gold. It is the one insurance policy which will pay out when you really need it to.”

-Dylan Grice, Societe Generale (now with Eidelweiss)

Jika Anda melihat grafik bulanan emas, Anda akan mengetahui chart pattern yang berkembang saat emas bergerak di kisaran $1,500 hingga $1,800, dan telah bertahan dalam kisaran tersebut selama 18 bulan.

Waktu yang akan bicara apakah kita bersiap untuk meroket naik sekarang ini, sehingga memberikan peluang beli yang sangat baik seperti yang pernah terjadi sebelumnya pada periode akhir 1990an-2000an awal, periode 2006-2007 serta di 2008-2009 saat krisis kredit. Yang menarik adalah peluang beli dalam 3 periode tersebut masing-masing berlangsung dalam 12 sampai 18 bulan.

Saya harus menambahkan juga bahwa dalam setiap periode tersebut, mereka yang menentang kenaikan emas mengatakan bahwa rangebound harga merupakan suatu bull market top”, namun pada saat yang sama harga emas melonjak sekitar dua kali lipat dalam rentang waktu ke depan. Jadi mari kita lihat apakah masih ada bagian besar di pasar emas yang menganggap perang luar biasa antara bearish Vs bullish yang terjadi saat ini sebagai kesempatan besar untuk melakukan aksi beli.

Saya kira kita akan segera mengetahui apakah memang bursa emas telah ‘menyapu bersih’ posisi beli ketika terjadi penurunan signifikan hingga ke areal $1555 pada 10 hari yang lalu. Dari tekanan tajam ini kemudian harga emas sempat mengalami rebound yang cukup signifikan pula, dan dengan bullish consensus yang kini berada di rekor terendah 3% di kalangan profesional berjangka, maka aksi beli akan merupakan resiko yang rendah.

Laporan pertama yang akan saya ketengahkan pada kesempatan kali ini adalah dari Clive Maund, seorang ahli technical analysis yang website-nya (www.clivemaund.com) didedikasikan bagi para trader maupun investor yang serius pada logam mulia dan sektor energi. Secara reguler, dia merilis gold market update, dan laporan terakhirnya yang ditulis pada 26 Februari 2013 masuk dalam kategori yang HARUS DIBACA karena sangat jelas dan merupakan analisa emas yang sangat menarik beserta grafiknya:

“There is now such an overwhelming array of technical evidence that the Precious Metals sector is forming a major bottom, that by the end of reading this update you will, or should unless you are stupid, understand why we now have no choice but to turn strongly and unequivocally bullish on the sector. Up until now we have had some reservations, but these have been swept away by the latest truly extraordinary data.

You may recall that in the last update posted on the 10th we called for a drop. As you won’t need reminding, we got it. On its 7-month chart we can see that gold sliced straight through support at its early January bull hammer low and then dropped steeply into last Wednesday – Thursday, where a high volume selling climax occurred at a parallel trend line target. Gold is now quite deeply oversold, with many oscillators at extreme readings. This 7-month chart cannot provide the big picture of what is going on, only recent detail, so let’s now move on to the longer-term charts.

The 2-year chart for gold is very useful as it enables us to examine the large trading range that has formed from the August – September 2011 highs in detail. After the initial drop from those highs we can see that gold settled into a horizontal trading range between clearly defined support and resistance at its upper and lower boundaries. Since the boundaries of this trading range have been tested on several occasions in both directions, resulting in significant reversals, they are clearly are great technical importance, and a breakout from this range will thus be an important technical event that can be expected to lead to a major move. For a variety of compelling reasons which we will soon come to, gold is expected to reverse to the upside from its current position near the lower boundary of the trading range and go on to break out upside from it. Here we should note that although a powerful new uptrend is expected to develop soon from here, we should not be surprised to see some backing and filling over the short to medium-term above the support, that may involve gold dropping a little further to about $1530. This is hardly surprising given that many sector participants are shell-shocked after the latest drop, so that some are in the frame of mind where they will sell for what they can get. Failure of the support at $1500 is viewed as highly unlikely given the current technical readings – if it happened it would have dire implications for just about everything, as it would imply that another 2008 style deflationary implosion was on the horizon, and it is considered unlikely that the money pumpers will permit that, although one day they may no longer have any choice in the matter. Now let’s look at the really big picture on gold’s long-term chart.

On the 7-year chart we can see that after its latest drop gold has arrived not just at, or close to, the lower boundary of its recent large trading range, but also at a parallel trend line target. It is now in the zone that we had earlier defined as being an excellent point to buy ahead of the start of the next major uptrend. This is an excellent point for it to turn up to start the breakout drive marking the birth of the next major uptrend, and as we will now see, all the technical indications are that it is about to do just that.

The latest COT chart for gold is at its most bullish for over a year, and this chart, which is up to date as of last Tuesday’s close, does not even factor in Wednesday’s big drop, so readings now can be assumed to be even more favorable. This is by far the most reliable indicator in our tool bag – whenever we have gone against it we have lived to regret it – and it was partly the then still bearish silver COT which enabled us to predict the latest plunge in both gold and silver before it started. After this drop Commercial short and Large Spec long positions (for Commercial read Smart and for Large Spec read dumb) have fallen dramatically and this COT chart is now viewed as strongly bullish for gold.

Now we move on to look at a range of sentiment indicators which provide a raft of evidence that gold is either at or very close to a major bottom. We start with the Hulbert Gold Sentiment Index, which shows that sentiment is at rock bottom, there is only room for it to drop a whisker more. This indicator shows that everybody and all their friends and relatives are bearish on gold, which means that there is almost nobody left to turn bearish on the friendless metal. So guess what happens to the price when people start changing their minds? – that’s it – you’ve got it!

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The gold public opinion index is at even more extreme low levels, being at its lowest reading by a country mile since at least the end of 2008. This demonstrates that the sheep are all up at one end of the field, the bearish end – and we all know what happens to them.

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Rydex have reduced their Precious Metal holdings to a very low level, as we can see on the following chart, which also shows that they are dumb as a door stopper when it comes to timing Precious Metals purchases. We can therefore take their low interest at this time to be another positive indication.”

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

Laporan kedua dari David A. Banister, pendiri ActiveTradingPartners.com dan chief strategist untuk TheMarketTrendForecast.com, yang yakin bahwa emas seharusnya menyelesaikan siklus low-nya di bulan Februari.  Alasannya adalah dalam laporannya di bawah ini, berdasarkan pola-pola technical yang berulang terjadi dalam 5 tahun terakhir ini:

“Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February. My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month. With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?

First let’s examine the last 5 years and you can see how I noted tops and bottoms in the chart below:

That brings us forward to today’s $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work includes Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns. In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much. With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare Elliott pattern termed the “Double Three” pattern. Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern. For sure, if we add in traditional technical indicators along with sentiment, we can see very oversold levels coupled with the potential Double Three pattern and probably start getting long here for a trade back to the 1650’s as possible:

This chart shows oversold readings in the lower right corner using the CCI indicator. That said we would like to see 1550 hold on a weekly closing basis to remain optimistic for a strong rebound.”

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah grafik berikut ini yang menunjukkan hedge fund interest di emas pada akhir 2012 yang merosot ke level terendah sejak dimulainya krisis. Mungkin Anda yakin bahwa saat ini penurunannya semakin lebih rendah …:

Di akhir di tulisan ini, kembali saya persembahkan 2 gambar lucu dari William Banzai mengenai mantan perdana menteri Italia, Silvio Berlusconi, yang bernasib cukup baik dalam pemilu Italia beberapa waktu lalu untuk kemungkinan berperan kembali dalam kancah politik di sana:

Dibuat Tanggal 04 Maret 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Beberapa Skenario Yang Mungkin Bagi Indeks S&P500 Di Tahun 2013

March 4th, 2013 No comments

“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”

-Jesse Livermore

Kali ini saya memiliki sejumlah laporan yang sangat menarik dan menggugah pikiran untuk Anda, yang kesemuanya berkaitan kemungkinan arah S&P500 sampai setidaknya akhir tahun ini. Khusus untuk Anda yang investor ekuitas, laporan ini layak diperhatikan dengan sepenuhnya karena Anda akan mendapat semacam roadmap untuk beberapa bulan ke depan.

Yang pertama dari si lugas Bob Janjuah, Managing Director dan Head of GFI Tactical Asset allocation di Nomura International Plc, yang melihat lonjakan parabola terakhir hingga 1575 dan diikuti oleh market crash hingga 50%:

From Bob’s World: Are We There Yet?

I last wrote in November (Risk not on?) and since then markets have broadly continued to track the medium-term bigger picture outlook set out in that note, as well as the shorter-term tactical “S&P500 1450/1475 rule” that I also discussed in that piece and in my earlier September note (Stop Loss Update). I wanted to publish now to provide some extra clarity:

1 – The medium-term and the ‘1450/1475 rule’: I wanted to recap the views set out in the above notes. Over the medium term – the first half or so of 2013 – I expected risk assets to rally with the S&P500 trading in the 1500s. Drivers were largely centred on more kicking of the can by policymakers. In terms of the “1450/1475 rule” for the S&P500, in place since September, the call has been and remains that on any weekly close above 1475, the outlook for risk assets is bullish and remains bullish until and unless we see a weekly close below 1450 for the S&P500, at which point the outlook flips to bearish. And the 1450/1475 zone for the S&P remains the neutral/zero position/no-go zone.

2 – Fundamentals vs. Policy – also known as “the gap between the real economy and financial markets high on the synthetic intoxicants coming out of central bank laboratories”: I have written before about the grotesque – in my view – and persistent misallocation of capital (in financial markets) being caused by the mispricing of capital/money by central banks; by their ongoing “promises” to misbehave – seemingly forever – such that anyone with good common sense will eventually be battered and beaten into submission and be forced into the misallocation game; and by the – again, in my view – irresponsible behaviour of fiscal policymakers too. Collectively, we have a huge global game of kicking the can down the road driven by excessive and wasteful government largesse, funded by explosive growth in central bank balance sheets. Future generations will and indeed already are beginning to pay (chronic youth unemployment in the Western world is the current channel) for what I see as deeply depressing policy settings and failed policymaker thinking, which persists with the idea that some form of debt-fuelled asset price elevation will lead to real wealth creation, which in turn will fix all our ills. The “movie” has been run before – too many times – and failed. Mispricing capital and forcing indebtedness into the system is an artificial booster of asset prices – in other words, such policy settings create asset price bubbles that always burst badly. NASDAQ 5000 was one recent example. And of course the huge bubbles that burst in 2007/2008 are another.

Real wealth can only be created by innovation and hard work in the private sector, with policymakers, the financial sector and financial markets there to aid and encourage/incentivize. Real wealth is not created by the printing press and by excessive government spending. We simply cannot turn wine into water – after all, if it were that easy, why have we not done this before (with any lasting success, as opposed to abject failure, for which there is plenty of evidence)! Sure, central bankers through QE can create a chemical/synthetic concoction that may well get us even more intoxicated than real wine, but like most chemical processes that are focused on by-passing the rules and focused on immediate quick fixes, the “wine” they are synthetically creating will I fear ultimately lead to either a large market hangover (at best) or – at worst – to the “market equivalent” of serious liver poisoning or something even worse. The scale of the fallout will I feel be determined largely by how far markets and policymakers are willing and/or able to stretch the elastic band between real world reality and liquidity fed asset markets. Past experience shows us that this band can be stretched a long way, and we know that central bankers have a bad track record at both spotting and managing asset bubbles.

3 – Positioning and Sentiment: The most significant new developments have been in the realm of positioning and herding. Market sentiment had already been turned primarily by Draghi in the early summer of 2012, and the Fed’s QEI leant heavily into this – as has the subsequent actions and/or words of other notable policymakers. But – and with the benefit of some hindsight – the missing link in calling the big top in the secular equity bull run out of the 2008/09 lows has been positioning. Market participants had – on a broad-based basis – simply been too cautious in terms of positioning structurally in risky assets. Without extreme positioning (long or short) markets tend to only see medium-sized corrections at best/worst, rather than big collapses. A key part of the positioning extreme is LEVERED positioning.

Well, based on everything I have seen and heard from the flows and from talking to clients across geographies, across asset classes and across investor types, positioning is now getting structurally long risk. Folks are fearful of missing a raging bull market (no matter how poor the foundations of such a bull run maybe in their eyes), they are fearful that everyone else will enjoy a risk-on bonanza while they suffer from being too cautious, and they are looking to buy all and any dips. Herding is a natural animal phenomena and the markets are now beginning to herd in the “it’s all gonna be OK, get short bonds and get structurally long risk” camp. At peaks we see levered positioning in risk, and this is now clearly on the increase too. The number of times I have heard from clients that “with central banks in full QE mode, financial market risk asset prices can ONLY rally” can now almost be described as a cacophony. The key word here is “almost”. I don’t think investors are yet “fully” positioned. We are “not there yet”. There is not yet sufficient leverage in risk-on positioning in my view. I think we need at least another round or two of “buying the dip” before we can consider positioning to be at extreme enough levels to set up the conditions necessary for a major sell-off (25% to 50%) as opposed to a minor correction (5% to 10%).

4 – Market Outlook: As can be inferred from the above, in the medium term (2 quarters +/- 1 quarter), and as per the route map in my previous notes, I think risk can rally further. I continue to believe that the S&P500 can trade up towards the 1575/1550 area, where we have, so far, a grand double top. I would not be surprised to see the S&P trade marginally through the 2007 all-time nominal high (the real high was of course seen over a decade ago – so much for equities as a long-term vehicle for wealth creation!).

A weekly close at a new all-time high would I think lead to the final parabolic spike up which creates the kind of positioning extreme and leverage extreme needed to create the conditions for a 25% to 50% collapse in equities over the rest of 2013 and 2014, driven by real economy reality hitting home, and by policymaker failure/loss of faith in “their system”. I always like to remind clients that, in the run up to the 2000 and 2007 highs, before the significant collapses that followed in the subsequent 18/24 months, markets seemed infatuated in Greenspan and his famous “Put” the same way today’s teenagers seem infatuated with Justin Bieber, investor complacency was off the charts, volatility was at record lows, belief in “the system” was sky high, and positioning was at extremes. The flashing common sense warning signs were being ignored, if not mocked. Time – the next 18/24 months – will we think provide the answer as to whether we are witnessing a repeat disaster in the making. IF I AM WRONG AND WE TRULY HAVE FOUND ECONOMIC AND MARKET NIRVANA SIMPLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL BANK PRINTING PRESS AND ENORMOUS INDEBTEDNESS, THEN I WILL HAVE NO HESITATION IN ENJOYING THE FUTURE, THINKING ABOUT THE FUNNY MONEY MIRACLE, NEVER NEEDING TO WORRY ABOUT ECONOMIES OR GROWTH EVER AGAIN (all hints of sarcasm entirely intentional).

Tactically, over the next quarter or two, I expect to see one or two (at least) 5% to 10% dips or corrections (there are after all many banana skins ahead in terms of politics, policy, and economic fundamentals), but which I think will be short lived and heavily bought into largely by latecomers (retail?) to the party, encouraged by more central bank promises. One such correction is due now and should take the S&P500 down by 5% or so (from 1515 to 1440ish) over the first few weeks of February. Over the end of February and the first half of March (at least) we should see risk assets rally back into the 1500s (S&P500) – and most likely above 1515. Two asset classes that may lag any such a rebound rally are credit (IG and HY) and EM. Credit markets in particular are I think great early indicators of a secular change in the direction of (equity) markets and it may well be the case that we have already seen, or will over the very near future (the next quarter) see the grand cycle tights for credit spreads.

Enjoy the dips. And focus on being very tactical and liquid, whichever way you feel markets are going to trend. Now is not the time to be getting overly levered, overly “structured”, or overly illiquid with respect to portfolio positioning. And good luck for 2013 and beyond.

Kemudian juga James Gruber, penulis dari media mingguan gratis Asia Confidential, yang mencoba menjawab pertanyaan yang berada di benak banyak orang saat ini, yakni Is The Market Topping Out?:

“Recently, many stock market bulls have come out to sneer, mock and dismiss the bears. And with some justification given the significant market upswing since 2009. Sure enough though, just as the bulls started to dominate the airwaves, the market may have reached an important top. Asia Confidential isn’t sure this is the top as a correction is well overdue. But we’re more confident that the market upturn is a cyclical rally within an ongoing bear market. To believe otherwise would be to ignore +100 years of bear market action in the developed world.

If we’re right, upside for the S&P 500 is capped at around 1,600 or broadly flat with the market highs of 2000 (1,555) and 2007 (1,575). That means there might be one more rally left before a more significant correction takes place. For Asia, another rally should mean laggards such as China start to outperform. That hasn’t happened so far this year though as last year’s winners, Thailand and the Philippines, continue to lead the way. (emphasis mine)

Dancing on the bears’ graves

Until this week, the bulls have been ascendant and the bears in hiding. And boy, have the bulls been having some fun at the bears’ expense.

Josh Brown, a U.S. investment advisor and author of well-known blog The Reformed Broker, typifies the bull argument:

“…while the risks are real and will certainly provide opportunity throughout the course of the year, they are also well-known and represent the core of consensus thinking right now…Against such an awful and seemingly inevitable backdrop of tears and fears, the risk is to the upside. Pray for pullbacks; anticipate them like the cool, restorative rainstorms they are.”

Brown cites the potential for a true U.S. economic recovery this year, led by a resurgent manufacturing sector and the real wealth effect from people’s homes growing in value. Not to mention that the so-called animal spirits are back, referring to favourable attitudes toward risk and the markets.

Stockbrokers have joined the fray, falling over themselves to justify the recent market rise and why it will continue. A common argument has been the “great rotation trade”, meaning that there’s been the first signs of investors switching from bonds back into stocks. No matter that this rotation is a myth, as highlighted by Fund Manager, John Hussman.

At the same time, newspapers have started to report on the comeback of stock markets. The New York Times featured a front page declaring: “Americans seem to be falling in love with stocks again”.

Predictably, all of this commentary has perhaps marked a market top in the near-term. The trigger for declines came with news that U.S. GDP shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. Most analysts have dismissed the report, suggesting it’s distorted by a massive swing in defense expenditure, resulting in a -1.33% GDP contribution from the government sector. Strip this out, they say, and consensus GDP forecasts of 1.1% would have been achieved.

I say: not so fast. Remember, the negative number has come before the fiscal cliff, sequester and government spending cuts. In other words, don’t expect the contribution from government to GDP to normalize this year. Particularly as defense spending will suffer as the war in Afghanistan winds down and there’ll be continued budget pressures on non-defense spending at all levels of government.

Hat tip: Ed Dolan.

Also, no-one has questioned the ongoing strength in U.S. consumer spending. Surely this can’t continue with real personal incomes at generational lows and savings rates at just 3%, but everyone’s assuming that it will.

A temporary pullback

I have a confession to make: I’ve never been a good short-term trader. Notwithstanding that, I suspect any market correction right now will prove temporary before a further rally. The view is based on a longer term outlook for the markets, particularly the world’s most important market, the U.S.. The chart from broker Stifel Nicolaus below is one of the most important to understanding the possible future direction of markets.

The chart shows the four bear markets which have happened in the U.S. over the past century, including the current one. The three bear markets of the 20th century were 14-20 years in length.

Of more importance are the peaks and troughs of the various bear markets. You can see that the market often gets back to peak levels on several occasions during a secular bear market. From 1966-1982, the market got back to 1966 peak levels on four different occasions.

You can also see that after a bear market low is reached, the bear market often ends at levels higher than that low. As a general rule, it’s about half way between the peak and trough of the bear market, when a new bull market begins.

Consequently, if history is a guide, the U.S. bear market started in 2000 and is now in its 13th year. It’s highly unlikely that the bear market ended in 2009. If it did, it would be the shortest bear market in modern U.S. history.

If I’m right, we’re witnessing another one of the peaks in a secular bear market. It means the S&P can rise further from here but upside is capped at probably 1,600 or so. And if history is correct, this bear market has a few years left and will end at around 1,100, or half-way between the peak and trough of 666. (emphasis mine)

For simplicity’s sake, I’ve ignored other critical indicators such as valuation in the discussion above. Suffice to say, key valuation metrics, such as the Shiller PE suggest the S&P is about 38% overvalued.

If that’s the long-term view, then what will drive a short-term rally towards 1,600 and then a more serious correction to potentially a bear market bottom? That’s difficult to say but it’s worth keeping in mind that inflation normally crimps price-to-earnings multiples while deflation crimps earnings.

I’m in the deflation camp but the market is suggesting otherwise at the moment, particularly the U.S. bond market (there’s been a steep rise in government yields). If the market’s right, inflation is on the way, which would mean stocks rally initially and then fall as the U.S. raises rates to keep a lid on inflation.”

Selanjutnya, dalam sebuah wawancara dengan The Gold Report, Harry S. Dent Jr., seorang pendiri HS Dent, seorang editor pada Survive and Prosper newsletter dan seorang chairman di SaveDaily.com, mengemukakan tentang pola-pola grafik menarik yang dapat menentukan nasib para investor dalam beberapa tahun ke depan:

“With each bubble, the market has gone to a slightly new high and to a slightly new low when the bubble bursts. We call it a megaphone pattern.

We are likely to see new highs in a lot of stock indexes in the first half of 2013. Our target for the Dow is 6,000 in the next two or three years, when we see the next burst coming.

You need to think like a long-term trader. Get more defensive. When stocks crash, get back into them. This will not be a decade where investments will only go down. It will be a roller coaster of boom, bust, boom, bust.

We predict that the Dow could go as high as 15,000 this year before dropping to 6,000 in early 2015. Nobody can predict the exact top or the exact date.

You can only guess by seeing when investors are overly bullish or bearish and when patterns are stretching on. And if governments are able to contain the next crash and crisis to, say, 1,100 on the S&P 500, then we will see a bigger crisis between 2018 and 2019.

The megaphone pattern is the best single pattern we have right now. The next top in this megaphone pattern in the S&P 500 is around 1,600; only 6% from now. Stocks do not have a lot of upside despite all the good news about fiscal cliffs being averted, QE3 Plus and stimulus from Japan and China.

I do not see a lot of good news coming. Baby boomers will keep aging and spending less. Stock earnings are decelerating, although still growing for now.”

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah Gordon T. Long, yang kini terlibat dalam placement ekuitas swasta internasional serta proprietary trading yang melibatkan pengembangan & penerapan Chaos Theory serta algoritma Mandelbrot Generator, menulis sebuah laporan di awal bulan ini yang berjudul

Beware the Ides of March:

Updated from the January 2013 Trigger$ Edition

“Wondering when this delusional rally will end? Where is the top and when will it be in?

There is one technical topping tool that has proven very effective in answering this question with a fair degree of accuracy. It is the application of the uncommonly used Fibonacci Ellipse.

In last month’s Trigger$ we predicted the January rally within what we believed to be the controlling Fibonacci Ellipse. Now we need to view what that Fibonacci Ellipses is telling us regarding what is ahead.

We are very close to a short term top, but we are not quite there yet. Traders need to understand that this short term top is not the Intermediate / Long Term top we have been calling for and still expect it to occur in the proximity of the March 15th Quadruple witch. Beware the Ides of March.

Our Macro Driver$ in this month’s Trigger$ shows the Global ECO’s are following a very clear cyclical pattern (illustration to the right), resonating from coordinated central bank actions.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has moved below zero. On the past 7 occasions when this happened the near-term equity upside was capped. The average maximum upside of 1% and average drawdown of 8% seen over the following 3 months demonstrate the asymmetric risk-reward.

We fully expect a near term scare in interest rates to ignite a correction but it will stay within our controlling ellipse before rising to a final top.” (emphasis mine)

The 18 Month View

Terakhir seperti biasa ada sebuah gambar lucu yang mudah-mudahan bisa menceriakan hari Anda ini:

Dibuat 21 Februari 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags: