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Guest Post: Koreksi USD sebuah ‘bearish reversal’ atau peluang beli di harga bagus…?

June 19th, 2013 1 comment

Ketidakpastian menjelang putusan dewan kebijakan moneter bank sentral (FOMC-The Fed) AS Selasa waktu setempat, atau Rabu (20 Juni 2013) dini hari pukul 01.00 WIB, apakah akan mengurangi/menghentikan stimulus QE-3 serta kapan jika memang akan dilakukan, telah menekan dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia.

Bersama kekhawatiran ekonomi Cina, dari data manufaktur non-resminya di periode Mei bulan lalu, telah menyebabkan tekanan indeks dolar AS dari penguatannya, bahkan telah memasuki zona bearish untuk pergerakannya sepanjang 2013 ini.

Dalam 2 hari ke depan ini, pasar akan kembali melihat kedua isu yang dalam 3 pekan terakhir telah menekan indeks dolar AS tersebut. Selain putusan FOMC nanti malam, seperti yang telah dirinci waktunya di atas, juga pada Rabu pukul 08.45 WIB besok hari akan dirilis data indeks HSBC Manufacturing PMI Cina untuk periode Juni, yang diperkirakan masih akan berada di zona kontraksinya (<50), menyusul Mei lalu dirilis 49.2.

Untuk itu banyak pelaku pasar memproyeksikan bakal ada volatilitas tajam dalam 2 data ekonomi terbesar (menurut pendapat saya) menjelang akhir semester kedua 2013 ini.

FOMC akan menghadirkan 3 bagian dari hasil pertemuannya yang sudah berjalan sejak Selasa sebelumnya, yakni putusan moneter terkait suku bunga dan stimulus, penilaian ekonomi dan konferensi pers ketua umumnya, Ben Bernanke. Yang sangat amat dinantikan pasar adalah kejelasan apakah stimulus agresifnya (QE3) memang akan dikurangi/dihentikan dan kapan waktunya…

Dalam pernyataan resminya bulan lalu, Bernanke menyatakan bahwa QE akan berpotensi dikurangi/dihentikan jika ada perbaikan pada data ekonomi. Bahkan laporan tertulis FOMC pun telah menyebut bahwa QE akan berakhir jika tingkat pengangguran mencapai 6,5% dan inflasi di atas 2,5%. Sementara saat ini tingkat pengangguran AS masih 7,6% dan inflasi masih di bawah 2%.

Namun perbaikan belakangan ini di sektor tenaga kerja, dengan non-farm payroll masih bertahan di atas rata-rata tahun 2012 (150 ribu) dan claim pengangguran mingguan masih berada di bawah rata-rata bulanannya (350 ribu), membuat pasar menyerap pernyataan Bernanke tersebut, bahkan secara global. Sehingga memicu tekanan jual di bursa saham Wall Street, T-bond jangka panjang AS bahkan memicu tekanan jual di bursa saham serta aset-aset negara-negara berkembang (dalam hal ini memicu rotasi dana dari pasar negara berkembang ke negara maju).

Volatilitas besar pun berkembang dalam 3 pekan terakhir ini, menyebabkan indeks dollar mencapai puncak kenaikan (sementara) tahun ini pada areal 84.50 yang dicapai menjelang akhir Mei lalu dan terkoreksi tajam hingga memasuki wilayah bearish-nya dalam kurun waktu yang hanya seketika saja.

Oleh karena itu tadi saya katakan bahwa 2 data besar dalam 2 hari ke depan ini dapat saja memicu volatilitas kembali. Dan bukan tidak mungkin volatilitas ini bisa mendorong kembali kenaikan indeks dolar AS – yakni dengan melihat indikator RSI-14 yang sudah oversold salah satunya. Dan pada price action-nya mungkin dapat melihat jikalau volatilitas dapat mendorong rebound menembus kembali dan bertahan di atas 81.05, 81.70 atau hingga ke atas 82.36.

Dan saya (boleh) katakan bahwa untuk 2 hari ke depan ini adalah hal yang sangat menarik untuk memperhatikannya.

Hal lain yang tak kalah menariknya mengenai indeks dolar AS ini adalah adanya siklus bullish 16 tahun dalam pola dan waktu yang hampir bersamaan. Untuk lebih jelasnya mari kita lihat grafik mingguannya di bawah ini:

1981…

1997…

Pada grafik mingguan indeks dollar AS pada 1981 dan 1997 terdapat persamaan adanya pola (false) broadening top masing-masing pada kuartal ke-1 dan ke-2 , yang mendorong kenaikan hingga ke puncaknya yang masing-masing juga dicapai pada bulan Agustus. Menarik..?

Untuk lebih menarik lagi mari kita lihat  weekly chart 16 tahun berikutnya yakni tahun 2013….

Kita bisa lihat bahwa pada kuartal ke-1 dan ke-2 juga membentuk broadening top untuk bearish dan tekanan saat ini sudah menguji ke bawah lower line dari pola broadening top tersebut – sebuah bearish zone!

Dan yang tak kalah menarik adalah jika kita membandingkan price action dalam broadening top pada tahun 1981, 1997 dan 2013 ini. Dimana price action pada 1981 membentuk pola V-shape, sementara di tahun 1997 membentuk (apa yang saya katakan) pola Double V-shape.

Pada tahun 2013 ini, jika siklus bullish USD 16 tahun dari false broadening top berulang dan juga terjadi double V-shape seperti tahun 1997, maka penurunan saat ini seharusnya menawarkan peluang beli dolar AS di harga yang sangat baik.

Sebelum memutuskan melakukan aksi pasar, saya coba ingatkan bahwa indeks dollar AS terbentuk dari pergerakan 6 mata uang utama dunia (komponen terbesar adalah euro, lalu disusul dengan yen dan poundsterling, dan berikutnya adalah dolar Kanada, krona Swedia dan franc Swiss).

Selain itu saya juga sampaikan bahwa kesimpulan tulisan ini adalah bersifat pandangan/pemikiran pribadi berdasarkan dari data-data obyektif yang diperoleh. Tidak ada maksud mengarahkan untuk melakukan suatu transaksi tertentu.

Namun sangat mengharapkan hasil tulisan dan data-data di dalamnya dapat bermanfaat untuk menambah bahan untuk strategi investasi/perdagangan yang lebih baik dan lebih menguntungkan.

Terima kasih telah membaca dan sukses selalu…

(Rekhmen Abadi-Staf Riset Valbury/@rekhmen/rekhmen@yahoo.com)

Dibuat Tanggal 19 Juni 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Waspadai Resesi!

June 18th, 2013 No comments

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

– Herbert Stein

Para investor banyak yang terkejut bahwa inflasi gagal lepas landas padahal sudah dilakukan quantitative easing (QE) dalam jumlah besar.  Sederhana saja penjelasannya, seperti dikatakan oleh ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) bahwa: resesi membunuh inflasi.

Setiap terjadi pembicaraan mengenai prospek kesejahteraan, demand mengalami penurunan dan deflasi bergerak semakin lebih dekat ke areal tahun 2009.  Memang kata-kata resesi ini jarang sekali keluar dari bibir media mainstream, namun seperti dikatakan oleh Albert Edwards dari Societe Generale bahwa jika ada orang yang menunggu data ISM sebagai sinyal resesi maka itu suatu kesalahan.

Namun yang lebih penting dikatakan oleh Edwards adalah bahwa kita akan berada dalam 2 kondisi buruk – yakni penurunan pendapatan dan penurunan margin.  Sejarah mengatakan bahwa itu merupakan indikasi awal (leading indicator) apakah ekonomi AS akan kembali lagi pada resesinya.

Untuk lebih jelasnya berikut paragraph terpenting dari laporan Albert Edwards, disertai 3 grafik menarik:

One of the axioms of economics I have always had a great deal of faith in is that profit margins mean revert.

But unfortunately at the height of a recovery most commentators forget this as they become intoxicated by the equity market’s prior stellar performance and tend to continue to price the market off analysts’ forward earnings – which inevitably always forecast further healthy gains ahead. Even the use of trailing earnings for PE calculations tends, in retrospect, to be too optimistic. That is why cyclically adjusted PEs are so important.

excluding financials, profit margins have failed to break out above their usual range. As night follows day, the market should be pricing in a decline in the margin cycle from here.

The surprisingly weak out-turn in May for the US manufacturing ISM seems to me just a continuation of what we have seen for the last few years, with mini-cycles of optimism and pessimism anchored to a clear downtrend

It is also notable that just as the last recession was starting in November 2007, the ISM was embarking on a surprising six month long H1 2008 recovery back above the key 50.0 mark, before plunging in August and September ahead of the Lehman bankruptcy… The bottom line here is that if anyone is waiting for the ISM to tell them a recession has started in the US they may be looking at the wrong data.

We find profits data far more useful to determine if a recession has started or indeed about to start. The results are ‘shocking’:

“In the S&P 500, there have been 91 negative EPS preannouncements issued by corporations for Q2 2013 compared to 13 positive EPS preannouncements. By dividing 91 by 13, one arrives at an N/P ratio of 7.0 for the S&P 500 Index. This 7.0 ratio is higher than the N/P ratio at the same point in time in Q2 12 (3.4), and is above the long-term aggregate (since 1995) N/P ratio for the S&P 500 (2.4).”

Reuters goes on to say that if this persists it would be a record pace of downgrading ahead of a reporting round.

In addition to the margin downturn, revenue growth is also flagging badly. Thomson Reuters also reports that revenue forecasts are being missed at an increasingly rapid rate. Indeed, the latest slide in the ISM below 50 suggests we are now close to outright yoy decline

Thus we may well be in for a double dose of bad news – both falling revenues and falling margins. History suggests this as good a leading indicator as any other for whether the US economy will endogenously fall back into recession.

Berikutnya Michael Snyder, publisher blog The Economic Collapse, yang menulis laporan luar biasa mengenai 12 Clear Signs That The U.S. Economy Is About To Really Slow Down.  Semoga bisa membuka mata Anda dan membuat Anda lebih siap jika terjadi kejatuhan ekonomi (dunia):

“A lot of things that have not happened since the last recession are starting to happen again.  As you read the list below, you will notice that the year “2009″ comes up again and again.  There is a reason for that.

Many of the same patterns that we witnessed during the last major economic downturn are starting to repeat themselves.  In fact, many of the things that are happening right now have not happened in quite a few years.  For example, manufacturing activity in the U.S. has contracted for the first time in four years.  The inventory to sales ratio is the highest that it has been in four years.  Average hourly compensation just experienced the largest decline that we have seen in four years.  We also just witnessed the largest decline in the number of mortgage applications that we have seen in four years.  After everything that Barack Obama, the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve have tried to do, there has been no real economic recovery and now the U.S. economy is suddenly behaving as if it is 2009 all over again.  A whole host of recent surveys indicate that the American people are starting to feel a bit better about the economy, but the underlying economic numbers tell an entirely different story.  The following are 12 clear signals that the U.S. economy is about to really slow down…

#1 The average interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has risen above 4 percent for the first time in more than a year.

#2 The decline in the number of mortgage applications last week was the largest drop that we have seen since June 2009.

#3 Mark Hanson is reporting that “mass layoffs” have occurred at three large mortgage institutions…

This morning I was made aware that three large private mortgage bankers I follow closely for trends in mortgage finance ALL had mass layoffs last Friday and yesterday to the tune of 25% to 50% of their operations staff (intake, processing, underwriting, document drawing, funding, and post-closing).

This obviously means that my reports of refi apps being down 65% to 90% in the past 3 weeks are far more accurate than the lagging MBA index, which is likely on its’ way to print multi-year lows in the next month.

#4 It was just announced that average hourly compensation in the United States experienced its largest drop since 2009 during the first quarter of 2013.

#5 As I wrote about the other day, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index declined to 49.0 in May.  Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.  That was the first contraction in manufacturing activity in the U.S. that we have seen since 2009.

#6 The inventory to sales ratio has hit a level not seen since 2009.  That means that there is a lot of inventory sitting out there that people are not buying.

#7 According to the Commerce Department, the demand for computers dropped by a stunning 9 percent during the month of April.

#8 As I noted in a previous article, corporate revenues are falling at Wal-Mart, Proctor and Gamble, Starbucks, AT&T, Safeway, American Express and IBM.

#9 Job growth at small businesses is now at about half the level it was at the beginning of the year.

#10 The stock market is starting to understand that all of these numbers indicate that the U.S. economy is really starting to slow down.  The Dow was down 216.95 points on Wednesday, and it dropped below 15,000 for the first time since May 6th.

#11 The S&P 500 has now fallen more than 4 percent since May 22nd.  Is this the beginning of a market “correction”, or is this something much bigger than that?

#12 Japanese stocks are now down about 17 percent from the peak of May 22nd. Japan has the third largest economy on the planet and it is one of the most important trading partners for the United States.  A major financial crisis in Japan would have very serious implications for the U.S. economy.

If we were going to have an “economic recovery”, it should have happened in 2010, 2011 and 2012.  Unfortunately, as a recent Los Angeles Times article detailed, an economic recovery never materialized…

Real GDP growth — the value of goods and services produced after adjusting for inflation — is 15.4% below the 3% growth trend of past recoveries, wrote Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. More robust growth will be necessary to bring this recovery in line with previous ones.

“It’s not a recovery,” he wrote. “It’s not even normal growth. It’s bad.”

Now we are rapidly approaching another major economic downturn.

But poverty in America has continued to experience explosive growth since the end of the last recession and dependence on the federal government is already at an all-time high.

How much worse can things get?

Sadly, they are going to get much, much worse.

What the U.S. economy is experiencing right now is not just a cyclical downturn.  Rather, we are in the midst of a long-term economic decline that is the result of decades of very foolish decisions by our leaders.

It is imperative that we get the American people educated about what is happening.  If people do not understand what is happening, they are not going to get prepared for the hard years that are coming.

If you have a family member or a friend that does not understand the long-term economic collapse that is unfolding all around us, please show them my article entitled “40 Statistics About The Fall Of The U.S. Economy That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe“.  It goes a good job of pointing out many of the reasons why we are heading for complete and total economic disaster.

And the point is not to fill people with fear.  Rather, there is a lot of hope in understanding what is happening and in getting prepared.  As we have seen over in Europe, those that get blindsided by economic problems often become totally consumed with despair.  Suicide rates have soared in economically-troubled nations such as Greece, Spain and Italy.

And the same thing is going to happen in the United States too.  In fact, the suicide rate in the United States has already been rising according to the New York Times

From 1999 to 2010, the suicide rate among Americans ages 35 to 64 rose by nearly 30 percent, to 17.6 deaths per 100,000 people, up from 13.7.

In fact, today more Americans are killed by suicide than by car accidents.

Isn’t that crazy?

Unfortunately, this is only just the beginning.  When the system fails, millions of Americans are going to be convinced that their lives are over.  A lot of them are going to do some very stupid things.  We want to try to prevent as much of that as possible.

Thanks to decades of incredibly foolish decisions by our leaders, an economic collapse is inevitable.  This is especially true considering the fact that our leaders in Washington D.C. and elsewhere will not even consider many of the potential solutions which could help start turning our economic problems around.

So since there are no solutions on the horizon, we need to explain to people what is happening and help them to get as prepared as possible.

The years ahead are going to be very hard, but we have a choice as to how we will respond to the challenges in front of us.

We can face those challenges with fear, or we can face them with courage.

Choose wisely.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Terakhir, namun tak kalah penting, adalah sejumlah laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang akan menunjukkan pada Anda mengapa perekonomian AS belum tentu menjadi ‘baju yang terbersih di antara baju-baju kotor negara-negara maju’. 5 laporan Tyler Durden tersebut juga akan penuh dengan informasi yang berharga:

1) Feeling Confident? Just Two Charts (June 5th)

History may not repeat but it certainly rhymes and when it comes to the animal spirits of human fear and greed, nowhere is that more evident than the ‘surveys’ of confidence that US citizens have undertaken for the last 30 years. As the following two charts show, while many are exuberant at the rise in confidence of late, it is a pattern we have seen play out twice before – and both previous times – it did not end well…

via Citi FX Technicals (charts recreated via Bloomberg),

The consumer confidence chart may remain an important factor in this equation

Chart of consumer confidence remains amazingly cyclical

Very clear trend so far of lower highs and lower lows. Since the all-time high in May 2000 at 144.70 we have been in a clear downtrend

Data on this indicator only goes back to Feb 1967 and prior to the all-time high in 2000 the peak had been 142.30 in October 1968 (right at the start of the lost 16 year period from 1966-1982)

LET US BE CLEAR there is no certainty at this point that a high has been posted in this move…but there are good reasons to suspect that it may have been (or at least that we are very close to that dynamic). If the chart above is consistent then the peak may well come from either the May or the June number.

The top of this channel comes in at 76.30 with the May number coming in at 76.20.

As can be seen above there has been a very close correlation in time frame in the 1998-2000; 2005-2007 and 2011-2013 moves. That would suggest that the peak in this number would likely be somewhere around present levels and in the May-July period (June would be an exact equal timeframe, to the other two moves)

Why might this be important???

One of the things that has performed better now than the 1970’s period and the early 1990’s period is the equity market. Or has it?

The post housing collapse rally in the equity market did not quite regain the 1973 high before a renewed 18 month fall of 27% whereas this market did regain the high. However it took twice as long (4 years instead of 2) as well as QE 1, 2 and 3 with massive fiscal stimulus to achieve those heady heights. Is that really a better performance???

By February 1994 when Greenspan tightened the S&P 500 had overcome the July 1990 peak by 79%. Admittedly this was after a much shallower fall of around 10 %, but from a wealth effect perspective provided a far bigger relative new high than today.

In addition when we look at the chart below we cannot help be a little cautious (Albeit recognizing that this is an environment where you have to be a skeptical participant on the move to new highs)

We are getting “relative triple divergence” between consumer confidence and the equity market. As the S&P has hit a high, higher high and now 3rd higher high consumer confidence has hit a high, lower high and lower high again. This suggests a larger disconnect between the level of “feel good” at the consumer level and the elevated level of the Equity market in an economy that is about 70% consumer driven.

Charts: Bloomberg

2) “It’s Not Like QE Isn’t Working Normally” (June 9th)

Moar may not be better after all…

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

3) Why Are Americans Driving Straight Into The Non-Recovery (And 800 On The S&P)? (June 9th)

One look at Americans’ driving habits represented by total vehicle miles travelled through the start of the Second Great Depression shows a simple chart: an uninterrupted diagonal line from the lower left to the upper right, which makes sense – a growing economy means more commuting, means more commerce, means more demand to get from point A to point B, means more miles driven, and so on.

Then something happened.

As the chart below shows, starting in December of 2007, the date which according to the NBER is the beginning of the most recent recession (which also according to the NBER ended in June 2009) the number of miles driven flat lined and has been virtually unchanged around 3 trillion miles every year for the past five!

This, despite the US economy (GDP) supposedly rebounding in 2009 and once again at new all time highs. Maybe someone besides us has a slight problem with the chart below showing the complete break between GDP and driving habits starting in 2003, or around the time the Federal Reserve went all in to mask the collapse of the dot com bubble, by first reflating the housing bubble, and then after 2008, the central bank bubble where every single central bank has literally gone all-in on to reflate the Mother Of All Bubbles (MOAB).

Why the record disconnect?

And why instead of growing alongside the economy, as it did in the past as this year-over-year chart of miles driven shows, at least until the end of 2007, which until that point never had a year over year decline, have the driving habits of the American people – always so eager to
drive the 2 minute trip to their neighborhood retail outlet – suddenly collapsed.

The chart below zooms into the recent history and shows that for the past year the 6 month moving trend line has been a disturbing one showing a consistent decline in the miles driven even as the economy, courtesy of the Fed’s ongoing market manipulation, is said to be “recovering.”

* * *

But we have saved the best for last: the chart below shows the correlation between miles driven and the S&P. Is it just us, or did something very odd happen in the late 1990s? And if the latter, is it safe to say that Bernanke has been responsible for about 50% of the upside in the Stanligrad & Poorski 500?

Source: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (M12MTVUSM227NFWA)

4) If Things Are So Great, Why Is This Chart So Bad? (June 13th)

Just as during the Great Moderation, buying financials has become the no-lose trade for any and all momo junkies. From their ‘fortress’ balance sheets (prone to total leveraged collapse at any moment from giant over-zealous trades and mismarking of assets) to their ‘can’t lose’ scenario analysis if rates rise because NIM will make them rich (aside from the fact that it won’t), bank stocks have been among the best performers in recent months (dramatically outperforming credit in the last few weeks). So we have a simple question. If things are so great… if the outlook so rosy… if the price-to-book so misvalued… why are the bank laying off people in 2013 at a rate almost as fast as they did in 2009?

Financial institutions are firing staff at almost the same rate in 2013 as they did in the immediate aftermath of Lehman!

which perhaps explains this divergence…

Chart: Bloomberg Briefs

5) If There Is A “Housing Recovery” Then This Chart Can’t Be Right (June 13th)

Let’s start with the oldest economics joke in the book: “assume there is a housing recovery.”

Ok, let’s assume that.

So, applying logic, wouldn’t consumers be actively buying furniture for their brand new homes, instead of furniture sales not only declining for the past year but posting the first negative print since January 2011, and the Great Financial Crisis before that?


… Because we are confused.

And here are some additional thoughts on the issue of the housing recovery via Doug Kass:

I expect last week’s “rally” in applications will be short lived relative to history.

Here is why:

Home affordability is overstated today when compared to the last cycle.

The bubble from 2003-2007 was all about “leverage-in-finance”, i.e.: popular, exotic loan products of each period, terms, allowable DTI, documentation type, start/qualifying interest rates etc. For example, from 2003 to ’05 a 5/1 interest only loan allowed 50% DTI qualifying at interest only payments. From 2006 to ’07 Pay Option ARMs allowed 55% DTI at a 1.25% start rate.

This made the “cost” of buying a house HALF of what it is today.

Then when the leverage-in-finance all went away during a short period of time from late-2007 to mid-2008 house prices quickly “reset” to what people could afford to pay on a fundamental basis…30-year fixed mortgages, fully documented, 45% DTI, at a 6% interest rate.

Because 70%+ of homebuyers use mortgage loans — and the monthly payment trumps the “purchase price” of the house with respect to purchase ability and decisioning — then it stands to reason that the monthly payment rate of popular loan types of each period relative to house prices would determine whether or not house prices are once again bubbly.

Bottom Line: the popular loan programs during the bubble years — which allowed for rapid and large house price appreciation — were not 30-year fixed loans like today. Rather, exotic interest only loans, negative amortizing Pay Option ARMs and high CLTV HELOCs. Thus, comparing the “affordability” of houses using today’s 30-year rates and program guidelines vs. 30-year rates and guidelines from 2003 to 2007 is apples to oranges.

Based on “cost of ownership” for the 70% who need a mortgage loan to buy, CA houses are more expensive today than from 2003 to 2007. This is why first-timer buyer volume has plunged to 4-year lows recently. And if not for the incremental buyer & price pusher — the institutional “buy and rent or flip “investor” that routinely pays 10% to 20% over the purchase price / appraised value treating a house like a high-yield bond — present house prices cannot be supported.

On this basis, back in 2006 a $555k house “cost” as much as a $325k house does today.

Di akhir tulisan ini, seperti biasa agar tetap ceria saya persembahkan sebuah gambar lucu mengenai perekonomian AS yang tidak perlu penjelasan lebih lanjut:

(h/t Citi FX Technicals)

Dan saya juga ingin mengatakan bahwa dalam 4-5 pekan ke depan saya akan absen menulis artikel karena akan mengisi sejumlah seminar dan kemudian akan mengunjungi kampung halaman saya di Belgia sampai dengan pertengahan Juli nanti.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat tanggal 14 Juni 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Mengapa Musti Beli Emas? (Bagian 2)

June 14th, 2013 No comments

“There’s this game you see at carnivals called, “Whack a mole”, where moles pop up one at a time and you hit the head, whacking it down, while waiting for the next to pop up. That’s kind of what’s happening in the precious metals market. People talk about manipulation and suppression in the market, and maybe you can look at it from the standpoint of those groups. If that’s the case, it’s “whacking the moles” as they pop up one at a time, in order to keep the market down. Or you can just call it “sellers” doing that. In my opinion, at some point all the moles in the world are going to pop up at the same time, and you simply can’t whack 100 moles with the same hammer. At that point there will be realization in the market globally, and the price will totally change character for the rest of the bull market.”

– Tekoa Da Silva

“Gold was up 12 years in a row without a down year,” demikian penjelasan Jim Rogers kepada Lauren Lyster pada Daily Ticker di Yahoo.

“That’s extremely unusual. The unusual thing about the gold market is how strong it had been and that it hadn’t had a correction. Now it’s having a correction, long overdue, I hope a proper correction. And if it goes down, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more.”

Menurut saya tidak ada yang salah dengan kalimat tersebut, bukankah demikian?

Saya memang tidak memproyeksikan kebangkitan harga emas secara cepat, namun saya masih berkeyakinan bahwa emas membuat para investor aman di tengah dunia yang penuh ketidakpastian ini.  Oleh karenanya saya masih terus menambah exposure saya di logam mulia tersebut dengan pertimbangan bahwa emas adalah salah satu kelas aset terpenting yang harus dimiliki saat ini.

Di kesempatan ini saya mamiliki 2 artikel luar biasa untuk Anda, dan menurut saya memang masuk dalam kategori yang HARUS DIBACA.  Yang pertama dari Addison Wiggin, seorang editorial director dan publisher pada The Daily Reckoning, dengan artikel yang berjudul The “Zero Hour” Scenario, menjelaskan dengan gamblang posisi Anda akan berada saat terjadi hal yang sungguh di luar dugaan secara mengejutkan:

“Possession is nine-tenths of the law” — from a Scottish expression

It’s a Sunday night. October 2013. Parents are making sure the kids’ homework is done. Football fans are settling in for the night’s NFL matchup. Reigning champs, Baltimore, are about to lose. And all hell is breaking loose in the precious metals markets.

Moments before electronic trading opened at 6 p.m. EDT, Commodity Exchange Inc. — the Comex — announced it would settle a large gold contract in cash and not gold. To be blunt about it, the Comex has defaulted on its contract. Suddenly, everyone else with a gold contract — or a silver contract — started to wonder if they’d be next to get stiffed.

Gold, which ended that autumn week at $1,715 an ounce, starts gyrating wildly… but mostly up. By Monday morning, it’s up past $1,800. But good luck trying to get that price — or anything near it — at a coin shop or online dealer. Under normal circumstances, a $1,800 spot gold price would mean U.S. Gold Eagles around $1,890 — a 5% premium.

But on this day, buyers — desperate to get their hands on actual, physical metal because trust in the system is breaking down — have driven the price far above $2,000.

This is “zero hour” — the day you can mark on a calendar when the price of real metal breaks away forever from the quoted price on CNBC’s ticker. It’s the day you’ll be grateful you hold real metal and not a proxy like the GLD exchange-traded fund (ETF) (NYSE:GLD).

Sound far-fetched? Today, we’ll show you why it’s inevitable…

The Emperor’s New Clothes: Why Now Is the Worst Time to Give up on Gold

The “zero hour” scenario is the ultimate emperor-has-no-clothes moment. Hans Christian Andersen’s original 19th-century tale The Emperor’s New Clothes has become a 20th- and 21st-century touchstone for obvious truths overlooked by the masses. It is almost a cliché. But it is singularly appropriate for our purposes today.

The “emperor” here consists of central banks, commercial and investment banks and the commodities exchanges. The day everyone recognizes them as being buck naked — or in this case, stripped of the gold they claim to hold — will be “zero hour.” It’s the day you’ll be happy you held on, even as gold sank from $1,900 in September 2011 to less than $1,500 as we go to press.

You did hold on, didn’t you?

Well, you can “buy the dip,” at least.

Caution: What we are projecting here is nearly the ultimate in fat-tail events. It is the product of deep research by one of the gold market’s most plugged-in luminaries… plus our own informed speculation.

But make no mistake: Zero hour — in the form of a precious metals default on the Comex, or maybe the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) — is coming sooner or later.

“The odds of it happening are about 100%,” says Eric Sprott.

Mr. Sprott oversees $10 billion within the Canadian asset-management giant that bears his name. Among those assets is the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE:PHYS) — our recommended vehicle if you choose to keep a portion of your gold holdings in a brokerage account. To understand why it’s a certainty is to go deep down the rabbit hole… into the vaults of the world’s central banks. Sit tight…

12 Years and Counting: Demand Runs Away From Supply

We don’t want to make it sound more complicated than it is. At root, zero hour will come when everyone knows gold supply can no longer meet gold demand.

“When I look at the physical data that I can see in gold,” Sprott told us in a recent interview, “the gold market has not changed its supply fundamentals in 12 years. It’s flat.” Add up supply from new mines and recycled scrap gold — mostly old jewelry — and the World Gold Council reckons it’s rock-steady at about 3,700 tons (metric tons) per year.

And what about demand? Since gold began its bull run in 2000, scads of new demand sources have come into the picture.

  • Central banks, which were net sellers of gold in the ’80s and ’90s, became net buyers
  • Exchange-traded funds like GLD and trusts like PHYS didn’t even exist before 2004
  • Annual sales of gold coins by the U.S. and Canadian Mints have grown fourfold
  • Chinese consumption of gold has nearly quadrupled
  • Indian consumption (measured by imports) has grown 30% from an already high level.

“The mere combination of only five separate sources of demand,” Sprott writes in a recent white paper, “results in a 2,268-tonne net change in physical demand for gold over the past 12 years — meaning that there is roughly 2,268 tons of new annual demand today that didn’t exist 12 years ago,” when supply and demand were more or less in balance.

And those are only the official figures. “There are lots of other purchasers of gold that I don’t have records of,” he elaborated in our interview.

“So for example, when somebody physically buys a gold bar, whether it’s [hedge fund manager] David Einhorn or the University of Texas endowment or someone like that, there’s no place that I can go and see how many bars were purchased. There’s no public documentation if Russian billionaires are buying gold.” For every story that makes the news, like Einhorn or UT, there might be 10 purchases that occur sub rosa.

Summing up, nearly 2,300 tons (officially) of new demand each year are coming into a market where supply is still stuck at roughly 3,700 tons. “So where’s the gold coming from?” Mr. Sprott asks rhetorically. “Who’s supplying this gold?”

After a research project that’s gone on as long as the bull market in gold, he’s left with only one plausible explanation — the one that makes default on a major commodity exchange inevitable.

“The Western central banks,” he tells us, “are surreptitiously supplying gold by leasing theirs out.”

The Central Banks’ Shell Game in Gold: “It’s Here… No, It’s Here”

“Wait a minute,” you’re asking. “You just said central banks became net buyers of gold in the last decade.”

True… but all the buying has come from developing countries like Russia, China, India and Kazakhstan.

Meanwhile, the numbers from the big developed countries — the U.S. included — have been static.

Remember the main reason central banks are in business — to benefit their biggest and most powerful member banks.

And what’s beneficial to U.S. and European banks is gold leasing. Commercial and investment banks lease gold from a central bank at bargain rates — usually less than 1% a year. Then they sell that gold into the private market and plow the proceeds into… well, anything that yields more than 1%. It’s a sweet deal if you’re a banker.

“But then the gold is gone, right?” Yes. If the central bank wants its gold back from the commercial and investment banks, those banks would have to buy gold on the open market — driving up the price. That’s a bad deal if you’re a banker.

So usually, there’s a tacit understanding: Central banks don’t ask for their gold back, and the commercial and investment banks roll over their gold leases. As long as they’re earning more than 1%, the debt service is easy peasy.

But if a central bank asks for its gold back, it’s game over.

“They can get away with [the leasing],” Sprott explains, “because on their financial statements, the one line they have for gold says ‘gold and gold receivables.’ A receivable is not real gold, physical gold… and we don’t get a breakdown between the receivables and the physical. They’ve not provided that.”

Look below and you can see the guile central bankers use to concede their gold “holdings” is not limited to bars in a vault.

“It would not lend much credence to central bank credibility,” Sprott writes, “if they admitted they were leasing their gold reserves to ‘bullion bank’ intermediaries who were then turning around and selling their gold to China, for example.

“But the numbers strongly suggest that that is exactly what has happened. The central banks’ gold is likely gone, and the bullion banks that sold it have no realistic chance of getting it back.”

Add it all up and we’re getting much closer to Zero Hour.”

Artikel ke-2 dari Aubie Baltin, yang mengisi karirnya dengan mengidentifikasi major trends pasar dan membantu orang lain memperoleh keuntungan darinya melalui media hariannya “UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE”.

Judul artikelnya adalah, “Golden Age Comes To Mankind Only After They Have Re-Discovered Gold’s Value,” menjelaskan kecenderungan penulisnya terhadap emas:

5 Reasons Gold Will Set an All-Time Record HIGH In 2013

No two bull markets are ever exactly the same and gold is no exception. During the last secular gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose from $35 in 1968 all the way to $200 by late 1974. Then completely unforeseen the unthinkable happened. Between late 1974 and mid-1976, gold prices were cut in half, dropping from about $200 to $100. At the time, many Gold Bugs sold out in fear & disgust. But then the unimaginable happened again; Gold prices started to climb and climb, rising from $100 in mid-1976 all the way to $800 by January 1980. Anyone who bought gold at $35 earned better than 20 times their investment. But most of that rise occurred in just the last two months of 1979.

Since 2001, gold has been the single best performing asset for a record 12 straight years. In fact, the average return on gold was just shy of 18%/year.

I know of no other major asset that has turned in this kind of performance ever. This is what a stealth bull market looks like, one that I fully expect will keep regain its power now that we know the reasons for its contrived crash in an effort to save the US$ and the Euro. However I think we still have another 5 years to go before the blow-off top of $6,250 by 2017 (My 2005 projection) will be reached.

2013 Gold Price Forecast

Gold began the year at $1,600 an ounce. Should we get average returns in this calendar year as well, gold will finish 2013 around $1,880. At those levels, gold prices would begin 2014 just shy of the all-time high set last year, right around the $1,900 mark. On the other hand, if we assume an average return again this year, then gold could reach $2,227 or better in 2013. After all, none of the fundamentals supporting gold prices have gone away. Instead, they’ve only continue to gain strength. Listed below are the five factors I’ve identified that will power the Gold Bull Market upwards for FIVE years or more:

#1 The Feverish Growth of Fiat Money: The USA, Europe, China and most of the developed world but also including a few of the Developing nations are printing money much faster than the amount of new gold being mined or discovered. Runaway money printing presses are always bullish for gold.

#2 The Feverish Demand For Gold: As central banks continue to print, individuals are continuing to relentlessly buy gold, especially in the world’s two most populous nations, China and India but especially after the Cyprus affair, individuals are stepping up their Gold and Silver purchases all over the world: which in 2002 accounted for 23% of world gold demand. Today, just these two nations alone, at 47% of new Gold mined make up nearly half of all demand. This is just the beginning. Meanwhile, less than 2% of all investment funds are invested in gold. Does that sound like gold is or was in a bubble?

#3 Even Central Banks Have Begun Buying: Central banks, especially RUSSIA and China as well as the developing nations’ Central Banks are buying and hoarding gold at a record pace. After all who wants to hold depreciating US$ that don’t pay any interest? It is my belief that China will drastically expand its gold buying year after year on a cumulative basis in an effort to accumulate enough Gold to back the Yuan by at least 25% to 50% with gold in their effort to replace the US $ as the world’s reserve currency.

#4 High Demand Meets Short Supply: The other side of the equation is supply. The gold mining industry is struggling to find more gold. The industry as a whole spent a record $8 billion in 2011 to explore for gold and yet their successes for gold discoveries are declining drastically. Bloomberg reported that from 1991 to 1999 there were 40 three million oz. or more of gold discoveries, yet from 2001 to 2009 there were only ½ that.

#5 My Favorite Reason For $2,400 Gold in 2013: The vast majority of analysts consistently forecast too low and are even predicting declining gold prices farther out. But guess what? They’ve been consistently wrong for 12 years. Meanwhile, breakeven costs continue to rise meaning the price floor keeps rising. And only the richer discoveries can and will be exploited. That’s one reason why I expect gold prices to set a new all-time record price high in 2013, of $2,400. Let’s not forget the new fact that more and more developing countries, in their desperate search for more money are looking to steal it from producing and or newly discovered mines in their countries, by reneging on contracts not to mention labor strikes, all of which serves to reduce supply.

Why MY 2005, $6,250/OZ projection for Gold by 2017 Isn’t so out of whack

To start with, let’s take the 1980 peak price of gold of $850 – and adjust it for inflation. That would take the price of gold to $2,400 in present-day terms. (That is using the Government understated inflation rates). Now, let’s take the 2,400% gain that gold experienced during the 1970s and translate it into present-day terms. From the 2001 low of $260.50 an ounce, a 2,400% gain would take the yellow metal all the way up to $6,252 an ounce which makes my 2005, $6,250 rounded projection price by 2017 seem a lot more reasonable today than it was when I first made it in 2005.

But these are not just random price projections. They are both well reasoned and well thought out. If we look at what the fundamentals are telling us, it’s clear that gold at $1,350 is a long way from its eventual peak, meaning gold is still very much undervalued: (Primarily due to Government manipulation attempts to hold the price down so as to preserve the value of both the US$ and the Euro.)

Five Fundamental Reasons Gold Will Soar

1) You Can’t Ignore Inflation: Demand for gold as a store of value has surged amid speculation that inflation will pick up after the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank announced plans to print more money to buy more debt. This increased new money printing will raise inflation expectations pushing gold to new highs.

That follows a pattern established from December 2008 to June 2011 as gold soared 70% following the $2.3 trillion created in the first two rounds of quantitative easing. Now that the Fed has made QE3 & 4 an open ended proposition, commodities in general and gold in particular will undoubtedly edge higher. In fact, since Nixon closed the “gold window” in 1971 the purchasing power of the dollar has declined by 86 cents so that now that 1971 $ is only worth 14 cents.

2) Gold is Real Money: The significant fall in the purchasing power of a dollar only strengthens the case that as a store of value, gold is the only real money. The fact is gold has been a monetary tradition for millennia. Nearly 2,000 years ago, Aristotle laid out what characteristics make for good money. According to Aristotle:

  • It must be durable. It must be portable. It must be divisible.
  • It must be consistent. It must have intrinsic value.
  • So it’s no accident that the most common basis for money – in all of human history – has been gold. After all, only gold meets all five of those requirements.
  • It is only in the past century that fiat money has supplanted gold or gold-backed currencies on a worldwide basis. Fiat currencies, like the dollar, are just a relatively recent and failing experiment in economics. So much so, it’s become exceedingly dangerous to hold on to, as long term holders are losing a compounded 10% per year. That’s why as many as 13 US States want to issue their own currencies using silver and gold. What’s more, Utah has already signed a bill into law recognizing US mint-issued gold and silver coins as an acceptable form of payment. The coins are treated like US dollars for tax purposes and Utah State citizens can now contract to pay each other in gold if they so choose.

3) Investment Demand is Exploding: Large institutional investors (hedge funds and pension funds) are making increasingly large allocations to gold, as are individual investors. One of them is Pimco’s Bill Gross who said in a recent white paper that gold and real assets would be the only ones to thrive in an acute fiscal crisis. According to Gross, the latest round of quantitative easing made gold “even more attractive” and owning the metal should be considered as part of a diversified portfolio.

According to Morgan Stanley’s survey of 140 institutional investors in the US, gold sentiment is now at its highest bullish reading since July 2011.Asia, with a population that exceeds 2.5 trillion inhabitants and has a long-standing cultural affinity for gold, is stoking global demand in a big way. In fact, China is overtly encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver, while offering them gold-linked checking accounts to facilitate their purchases. China is primed to overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of gold. A quickly developing middle class whose members are experiencing rapid escalations in disposable income are a major bullish driver for the price of gold.

4) Central Banks are Loading Up On Gold: According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought 254.2 tons in the first half of 2012 and may add close to 500 tons for all of 2012. What’s more, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Russia added 18.6 metric tons of gold in July. South Korea bought 16 tons (of #9 coal, LOL); a 30% increase. Kazakhstan increased their bullion reserves for a 12th consecutive month. That shows how gold prices continue to be underpinned by growing demand from the world’s central banks. That’s important because up until 2009, central banks, who were steady sellers, stopped selling gold altogether and instead became net buyers as a way to diversify away from the US dollar, the Euro and other fiat currencies. Since then, they’ve settled into a pattern of gold buying that has been a major force behind the surging price of gold. Since central banks are responsible for 16% of the total global gold demand and are increasing their gold purchases. In all, central banks across the globe hold 31,353 tons of gold as reserves. As fiat currencies continue to crumble, investors can expect that figure to rise. (So who has been doing the selling this Year?)

5) A Currency Crisis is Looming: Five years into this crisis, the US, Europe, and countless other economies are still struggling. That’s why the European Central Bank and the Fed have unveiled plans to fight the crisis and reduce borrowing costs. ECB President Mario Draghi has since announced an unlimited bond-buying program for distressed euro-area nations, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has committed to unlimited QE3 &QE4 of so-called quantitative easing. And that reality has ignited a crisis of confidence about fiat currencies in the minds of many investors and governments. If all that weren’t enough Japan just announced plans to buy Government and Real estate bonds to the tune of $1.4 trillion.

Future sovereign-debt downgrades from ratings agencies are another potential trigger for a currency crisis. According to the World Gold Council:

“The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone underpinned European investors’ enduring conviction in gold’s capital preservation properties. Demand for bars and coins from retail investors posted a 15% year on year increase to 77.6t; 19% higher than the five year quarterly average of 65.2t.” In spite of the Recent Manipulated Crash in Gold and Silver, Gold and Silver will come back stronger than ever. WHEN? I can’t say but SHORTLY!

Under such conditions, gold – the ultimate store of value and the oldest existing form of money on earth will soar as investors seek to protect their purchasing power.

 

#6 THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLD BUYING MANIA

  • Stage One: Currency Devaluation.
  • Stage Two: Investment Demand.
  • Stage Three: A Culminating Mania-Buying Spree.

We’ve Yet to Reach the Mania Stage: Where are we now? At the moment, we were half way into stage two and the recent Manipulated Selloff of both Gold and Silver will end up being only a minor interruption, which means the mania stage isn’t far behind.

Stage three is when people from all walks of life start lining up at pawn brokers and coin dealers to buy gold and silver. That’s when the public finally becomes fully aware of Fiat money’s progressive slide. It’s when we will see a market bubble akin to what we saw with “dot.com” stocks back in the late 1990s, or US stocks in late 2007 and the Gold and Silver markets in 1979-80 that a Mania will become obvious.

We are currently witnessing a stock buying Mania which is not backed by solid fundamentals and therefore is NOT SUSTAINABLE.

As the mania sets in, higher prices by themselves, beget higher prices, with gold rising in the kind of near-vertical climb that is the hallmark of a speculative mania – a bubble. This is when and where the $6,250 price target will most likely be reached.

Please Note: A team of economists believe gold could shoot even higher than $10,000 due to a frightening “pattern” seen in our debt and money supply that guarantees they’re going to fail.

There’s no mania until you witness a gold mania and despite the fact that we’ve been in a powerful Gold Bull Market for more than a decade, I believe the best is yet to come for gold and silver prices.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Apakah kejatuhan emas akan berakhir?  Atau emas justru akan terus merosot? Ini adalah 2 pertanyaan besar yang berada di benak mayoritas investor saat ini. Pertanyaan-pertanyaan inilah yang kemudian dicoba dijawab oleh Dominic Frisby, komentator pada MoneyWeek untuk emas dan komoditas:

“The fundamental argument for owning gold – and one I have used many times – is that it is an effective store of wealth in turbulent economic times.

That’s an argument that, right now, I’m afraid, is not carrying much water.

Gold is more than $500 an ounce off its high, and $300 down on the year. And then there is the opportunity cost to consider – the gains missed elsewhere by holding gold rather than, say, tracking the FTSE 100.

So today I’m going to ignore the fundamentals for gold, whatever you perceive them to be, and consider some other factors, to try to work out where gold goes from here…

Don’t fight the trend – and the trend is down

Trend-following is one of the most effective means I’ve discovered of trading a market. The idea behind trend-following is that you don’t need to know anything about the underlying asset.

It might be gold, it might be corn, it might be Royal Dutch Shell, it might be the FTSE 100, and it might be junk bonds. No knowledge of the fundamentals required. It’s all about the price.

Once you identify a trend in a market – whether it’s up or down – you simply jump on board and follow that trend, ‘until the end’.

There are all sorts of ways to identify trends. Some use moving averages. Others use trend lines (such as my colleague John Burford MoneyWeek Trader email). Other options include looking for higher highs and higher lows (or vice versa), or keeping an eye out for break-outs.

But you don’t need any of these methods to tell which way the gold price is trending. You just need to look at the chart below of the price since 2010.

The parallel blue trend lines are pointing down. The price (the black line) is down. And it’s sitting below the 21-day, 55-day and 255-day moving averages (the various dotted lines). All of which are pointing down.

There’s a chance the low has already been made in the blue shaded area of support just above $1,300. But there is no arguing with the trend. It is down.

Trends are powerful things. They can defy ‘logic’ and continue for much longer than you might expect. John Maynard Keynes himself learned this the hard way. Hence his line about the market remaining irrational, “longer than you can remain solvent”.

There’s no way of knowing for sure when a trend will end. You can only make a reasoned guess.

Often you’ll find that areas of support (where the price is likely to stop falling) are the same as the levels that proved to be resistance (they were difficult to get through) on the way up.

I have drawn them on the following chart, which shows gold since 2007.

The blue dotted lines at around $1,150 and just above $1,300 I see as light support. Stronger support lies in the green shaded area around $1,250, and the red area around $1,050.

But contrarian indicators are telling another story

There’s another glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. The trend is against gold. But sentiment indicators – the contrarian indicators – are in favor of buying.

For a start, there’s the way that futures traders are positioned. There are three groups of traders on the Comex (commodities exchange). There are the commercials, who among other things, sell gold on behalf of miners, so tend to be short the gold market. They are considered the ‘smart’ money.

Then there are the large speculators (usually acting for large funds) and the small speculators (who give an insight into what private investors are thinking). You might describe these as the ‘not-so-smart’ money.

You have to go back to the lows of the 2008 crash to find a time when the commercials had such a small, short position (around 84,000 contracts). Similarly you have to go back to October 2008 to find a time when the large specs had such a small net-long position. Meanwhile the small specs, who are almost out of the market altogether, are net-short by 1,704 contracts.

The chart below (courtesy of Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com) details the positions of futures traders. They’re never the easiest charts to read, but I have drawn a black arrow to the key points in 2008 and now.

Basically, the red bar graph shows that the ‘non-commercials’ (the not-so-smart money), are less bullish on gold than they have been since 2008. The blue bar graph shows that the commercials (the smart money) are less bearish on gold than they have been since then. That’s a healthy sign for gold.

And from a contrarian point of view, the sheer number of bearish bets in the market is even more of a flashing ‘buy’ signal. The put-to-call ratio in GLD, the exchange traded fund that tracks the gold price (NYSE:GLD), compares the number of bets that the gold price will fall, with the number of bets that it will rise. At the moment, 1.5 puts (bets the price will fall) are being placed for every call (a bet it will rise).

The chart below (courtesy of The Short Side Of Long blog) goes back to 1996. The black line is the gold price. The orange line shows the overall level of short positions in the market.

And as you can see, this figure is at an all-time high. Investors are shorting gold even more aggressively than when Gordon Brown held his very public sale.

There are lots of other contrarian signals. Bloomberg reports hedge funds have their lowest bets in five years. Money managers have their lowest bets since 2007. Newsletter writers have their lowest recommended exposure to gold in years. Public sentiment on gold is at its lowest level for years. All of these indicators are at levels typically associated with lows.

So am I calling the bottom? No.

I have a greater respect for the power of trends than I do that of sentiment and contrarian indicators. This is one of those occasions where I’d be happy to be wrong, because I’ve no plans to sell my gold. But I suspect we still have to flirt with that $1,250 area, maybe even $1,060, before this correction is over. (emphasis mine)

This is very negative sentiment for a market that has only dropped 30%. Long-term bull markets often have such corrections. Gold fell by almost 50% in 1974-5, for example. Bull markets also tend to end with more of a bang. We had euphoria when gold hit $1,920 an ounce in summer 2011, but it wasn’t mass euphoria. I suspect and hope we have a way to go yet, both in this current correction and before the bull market is finally over.”

Seperti biasa di akhir tulisan ini, saya kembali melampirkan sebuah gambar lucu agar tetap ceria:

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 12 Juni 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Mengapa Musti Beli Emas? (Bagian 1)

June 12th, 2013 No comments

“What is the worst possible environment for investing? The Fed has given it to us — A low interest environment along with an eroding currency.  That’s what we have now. At present there’s no perfect or even a satisfactory investment position. You are not safe in bonds, you are not safe in stocks, and you are not safe in cash. This is why I choose gold. It doesn’t bring in income, but it will be around when everything else is in ruins. And if the whole current house of cards starts to fall apart, chances are that there will be a huge panic to own gold, which is out of the Fed’s and the government’s grip.”

– Richard Russell

Saya masih akan menulis prospek bullish emas  meskipun logam mulia tersebut sedang memasuki bear market.

Opini ini didasari oleh pemikiran yang rasional yakni situasi fundamental yang luar biasa bagi logam mulia tersebut dan sentimen yang sangat negatif dari para investor yang sering menjadi faktor penting untuk gerak balik harga.

Namun demikian saya mengerti memang masih sulit untuk sentimen bullish menjadi dominan kembali, terutama jika melihat grafik dalam beberapa pekan terakhir yang terlihat masih cenderung turun.

Jadi mengapa emas?  Karena emas adalah uang yang mampu mempertahankan nilainya dalam beberapa abad ini. Namun hal ini telah banyak dilupakan karena kita senantiasa dan telah lama menggunakan uang pemerintah (fiat monetary system). Oleh karenanya Alasdair Macleod melalui GoldMoney.com, baru-baru ini membuat artikel mengenai hal tersebut untuk dipahami dan diingat kembali:

“It is clear that Western capital markets no longer generally regard gold as money. It has been relegated to the status of a risk asset, useful collateral, or simply a commodity with a history of being used as money. This is a mistake.

The great Austrian economist, von Mises, wrote that true money had to survive the regression test. Put simply, it must be established whether or not money had value before it was used as money; otherwise it is only a money-substitute which ultimately depends for its value on confidence. So we need to ask ourselves two questions: what value did gold have before it was used as money, and what value did modern currencies have before they were used as money?

The answer to the first question is clear. Anyone who has seen the Alfred jewel in the Ashmolean Museum in Oxford (over 1,000 years old), the Snettisham torc in the British Museum (over 2,000 years old), or Tutankhamen’s gold mask in the Cairo Museum (over 3,000 years old), regard these fabulous items with astonishment. They are simply priceless, being desirable beyond reckoning. There is therefore no doubt that gold, the major element in all these objects, survives von Mises’s regression test. Furthermore the Aztecs and Incas in the New World, completely isolated from Eurasian values, held the same human view.

Paper currencies do not survive this test. They started as money-substitutes for gold or silver and over time lost all their convertibility. As a result they now depend for their value on confidence alone.

Traders and investors in capital markets are unconcerned about this distinction. Instead of realizing that Gresham’s Law applies, that bad money has driven out the good, they regard currency as the only money for modern times. This is understandable, because they draw up their accounts and pay their taxes in currency. They invest to make a profit in currency. And so long as they can hedge currency risk by acquiring capital assets, they can manage investment portfolios without recourse to gold.

For these practical reasons mainstream opinion holds that gold is no longer money; but this complacency is likely to be undermined by events. We already see the four major central banks committed to issuing their confidence-based currency in increasing quantities, to finance their governments and to prop up the banks. We have yet to see how they intend to stop doing so.

The effect of monetary inflation was usually predictable. It raised asset prices first, which we are already seeing. It then raised prices of raw materials and manufactured goods, as people started to spend encouraged by low interest rates, leading inevitably to rising prices and rising interest rates. The sequence of credit-fuelled economic cycles is all too familiar.

This time, given the likelihood of a financial and collateral crisis from falling asset prices, the economic cycle is in grave danger of a short circuit. Rising prices for raw materials and goods are likely to be driven by falling confidence in fiat currencies, instead of rising confidence in the economic outlook.

It will be the ultimate test for unbacked currencies. Everyone wedded to modern currencies will then wish they had been aware of von Mises’s regression theorem.”

Kamis lalu, Egon von Greyerz, pendiri Matterhorn Asset Management, kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) bahwa penundaan dari para refinery emas Swiss masih berlangsung menjadi 5 pekan.

Greyerz juga membahas apa yang terjadi dengan demand (permintaan) emas di sejumlah pasar utamanya. Berikut adalah penjelasannya dalam wawancara dengan King World News:

“The world has no idea what’s going to hit it.  The majority of people today in the West are living in debt and have no assets to protect, but for the people with savings and wealth and for the managers of funds, they don’t realize that they have lost 60% to 80% in real terms over the last 13 years.

Not only has cash in the bank gone down by 80% in real terms, which is against gold, but so have stocks, housing, commercial property, and many other assets.  So people live under the false illusion that paper money is a true measure of their wealth.  As we know, nothing is further from the truth….

Paper money hides the truth, and the truth is that most of the increase we have seen in paper wealth is illusory both for individuals and for the world.  But it suits the governments to fool their people.  This gives them the best chance of being reelected and they also engage in theft through inflation.

Not only have investors’ assets gone down by 60% to 80% in real terms over the last 13 years, but they are likely to decline another 90% in the next few years vs. gold.  The Dow for example, which now has a 10/1 ratio vs. gold, is likely to go down to a 1/1 ratio or even below.

Will the level be $10,000 for gold or $100,000 or $100,000,000?  Well, that depends on how much money will be printed and what the level of hyperinflation will be.  But regardless, all assets that have been fueled by the credit bubble will decline in real terms.

In spite of a massive erosion of wealth in real terms in this century, only 1% of investors own physical gold.  That is absolutely amazing.  There will be no better hedge against the destruction of paper money and asset values in the next few years.

This hedge of physical gold by investors must be a meaningful percentage in my view.  We recommended up to 50% of assets be put into physical gold in 2002 when gold was only $300.  Today we have investors who have anywhere from 20% to virtually 100% in precious metals.  So I would say that as a hedge or insurance 20% to 25% is a minimum, but personally I believe it should be a lot higher.  I see no better way of preserving wealth against what is going to happen.

In the short-term we are seeing massive demand for gold.  It is continuing at very, very high levels.  The US Mint just declared that demand is unprecedented and they have problems getting hold of gold for minting.  Some of our Swiss refiners now have delays of up to a remarkable 5 weeks.

If you look at what’s happening in China, the imports are continuing at extremely high levels into China from Hong Kong.  In April the imports were 126 tons, which is the second highest month ever.  In 2013 for the first four months total imports were 500 tons vs. 240 tons for the same period in 2012.  So that’s up over 100%.

If you look at India, they bought over 162 tons of gold in May which is double the normal amount.  Just as the truth always prevails in the long-run, so will the physical gold market.  The current manipulation in the paper market will fail, and soon this unprecedented physical demand will be reflected in significantly higher prices.”

Bill Bonner, penulis terlaris di New York Times dan pendiri Agora, salah satu penerbit media cetak finansial independen terbesar dunia, sering menyatakan bahwa “if you are thinking of the long run, you will definitely want to hold gold rather than shares in today’s corporations, today’s paper dollars, or promises by government to repay you in its own IOU paper currency.

Most people in America have still never seen a gold coin.  But they will.  Unless this time really is different … unless this really is a new monetary era … you can presume that what happened in the past will happen again.  And what happened in the past was that paper money systems always blew up and gold always becomes infinitely expensive in terms of the depreciating paper money.”

Pada 18 April 2013, Bill Bonner mengulas dengan rinci mengapa musti tetap berinvestasi di emas dalam artikelnya yang berjudul This Gold Bug Ain’t for Turning!:

“In the financial markets, we spend most of our time waiting for something to happen. When years go by and nothing happens, we assume that nothing will ever happen. When it does happen, we are totally surprised.

Is something happening now? A major change of direction? Is another shoe dropping?

All Downhill for Gold?

A consensus is forming that the gold market has reversed direction. The bull market of the last 14 years has finally ended. It’s all downhill from here, say the mainstream pundits.

But if that is true, what else will have to be true? The last bull market in gold ended when the Fed dramatically changed course.

Paul Volcker replaced G. William Miller as chairman in August 1979. A loose money policy became a tight money policy. Volcker jacked up interest rates, which had trailed behind the inflation rate by such a degree that real interest rates (the difference between nominal interest rates and the rate of consumer price inflation) were as high as 5%.

“Don’t fight the Fed,” they say on Wall Street. Those who fought the Fed back in the early 1980s were wiped out. The Fed was tightening – sharply. Volcker was determined to bring inflation rates down. That was not the time to own gold. It was the time to own bonds. You could buy a 10-year T-note with an 18% coupon. And interest rates (along with inflation rates) were headed down. Bonds would go up in value for the next 30 years.

By contrast, gold went down… down… down. By the end of the bear market in gold, there was hardly a single gold bug who was still sober or still solvent.

But what’s the Fed doing now? Has it reversed course? Has Ben “Bubbles” Bernanke been replaced with a tough-as-nails inflation fighter? Has the FOMC vowed to stop printing money? Has the loosest monetary policy in US history given way to a tight policy?

Nope.

Has the bull market in bonds ended? Have the lowest interest rates in half a century suddenly started to turn up?

Nope again.

Bubbles, Crises, Booms and Busts

What has fundamentally changed to reverse the fundamental direction of the gold market? Nothing we know of. Instead, the Bank of Japan has recently joined the central banks of the US, the euro zone and Britain in promising to keep printing money “as long as necessary” to get the inflation rate UP!

Every major government in the Western world is running a big deficit. Every major central bank is printing money. And every saver, as David Stockman put it, is being “crucified on a cross of ZIRP.”

That’s right, too. Savers had a field day when the Fed changed direction in the early 1980s. They were paid to save… and paid well.

Now savers are being punished. They earn less in interest than the real rate of inflation. Is that changing?

At the time the last bull market in gold ended, everything stopped in its tracks and turned around. Stocks had been going down for at least 16 years; they suddenly started going up. Bonds had been going down too, ever since the end of World War II; they too started moving in the opposite direction. Savers were rewarded; borrowers were punished.

And gold reversed course and began an 18-year bear market. Is there any major turnaround now that would justify or at least signify a historic turn in the price of gold?

Nope.

Central banks and central governments are committed to a particular course of action. Does it lead to more valuable paper money? Does it lead to price stability? Does it lead to growth and glory?

Or does it lead to bubbles, crises, booms, busts and an eventual blowup? As far as we can tell, central banks are looking for trouble.

We still want to own as much gold as possible.”

If you would like to read more of Bill’s essays, sign-up for his free daily e-letter at Bill Bonner’s Diary of a Rogue Economist.

Sementara itu Clive Maund, yang website-nya (www.clivemaund.com) didedikasikan bagi para investor komoditas terutama sektor energi dan logam mulia, menulis dengan kritis mengenai kondisi fundamental ekonomi dunia, padahal dia adalah seorang technical analyst.

Bahkan dia juga menyoroti komoditas keras – termasuk emas – sebagai aset bagi para investor yang ingin melindungi kekayaannya:

With an astronomic and ever growing debt and derivatives overhang, there are essentially only two choices for the world economy. One is to deal with it head on, which would trigger a deflationary implosion that would create an economic wasteland leading to anarchy, riots and revolution etc. Quite clearly nobody wants that, least of all those in power. So that only leaves one other option, which is to keep things limping along for as long as possible by clamping interest rates at zero to stop debt compounding and to print whatever quantity of money is required to keep the status quo going. The big difference between now and 2008 is that this is now a truly global strategy with the WWEW, the World Wide Elite Web, now controlling and directing a coordinated campaign of liquidity enhancement to achieve this objective. For evidence of this you need look no further than the Fed delivering boatloads of newly created cash to the European Union to prop up its banks, or to Japan suddenly abandoning decades of deflationary policy to get with the plan, which is why the yen has collapsed. However, the Fed’s generosity towards Europe may not extend to saving the euro, which US elites may view as a nuisance because it potentially undermines the dollar’s reserve currency status.

Creating vast quantities of money out of nothing to make available to big banks and the financial sector free of charge must of course have a price, since real wealth cannot be created out of nothing, and that price is monetary debasement, the consequences of which are neatly passed along to the lowest tiers of society via inflation. So the big banks and favored entities and institutions are the direct beneficiaries of the munificence of the money printers, while the bill for it all is passed along to the man in the street via robust inflation.

The need to save the world by clamping interest rates at zero also provides another convenient mechanism for transferring the wealth of the middle and lower classes to the elites. The big banks, as we know, can borrow newly created money for nothing or almost nothing, but when the little guy wants to borrow money for whatever reason he has to pay the banks 4 or 5% interest, so the banks pocket an instant 4 to 5% profit for a little paperwork – not bad work if you can get it. On the other hand, if the little guy actually succeeds in saving some money, and makes the mistake of letting it accumulate in a bank account, what will the banks pay him in interest? – nothing, or next to nothing. This is why the little guy, frustrated at getting no return on his savings in the bank, is encouraged to venture into more risky areas like the stock market – which is then cyclically flushed to strip him of his holdings at low prices. To add insult to injury the little guy is then advised that ‘for the greater good’ he should tighten his belt and endure austerity measures. As if all this isn’t enough the size of bars of chocolate is being slyly reduced. The trick for the elites is squeeze the little guy as much as possible so that he is simmering with anger and frustration, but not so much that his anger boils over and he goes on the rampage, which could result in unfortunate consequences, such as bank windows being smashed and bonuses being reduced. Now and then a ‘trial balloon’ such as Cyprus is floated to see what the little guy’s limits are, so that they know what they can get away with later in places like Italy and Spain.

Now, as you know, we are quite above ranting on this site – the point of the above discussion was to make clear that the global elites have charted a course for robust global inflation. Deflation could lead to things quickly getting out of control and a descent into a state of anarchy, which could lead to them losing power and possibly even their lives. Inflation on the other hand, means that they can keep things limping along, maintain the status quo, which benefits them hugely, and engage in the steady transfer of wealth from the poorest sections of society to the richest. This for them is the perfect outcome, and – now we are getting to the point – it means that hard assets with intrinsic value can be expected to remain in uptrends as far as the eye can see – as investors struggle to maintain the value of their assets in the face of the relentless ravages of inflation. Thus there is no reason to fear an end to the ongoing major bull markets in gold and silver, and various other hard assets, and that means that the recent trading ranges in gold and silver are not top areas but zones of consolidation ahead of the resumption of the major uptrend.”

[all emphasis mine]

What Do the Charts Say?

Pekan lalu Eric Pomboy, pendiri Meridian Macro Research dan juga penulis riset makro dan laporan pada sejumlah besar institusi finansial maupun hedge fund terkemuka dunia, mengirimkan sebuah grafik emas yang amat menarik kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com).

Dan juga, dia memberikan penjelasan kepada King World News mengenai grafik emas tersebut:

“Clearly the net commercials in the gold market are telling a completely different story than what we are hearing out of the mainstream media, CNBC, et al, that ‘The Fed is going to taper, the gold bull market is over,’ etc.

There is even a possibility that the commercials may go net long gold for the first time since 2001 (when gold was roughly $260).  But when you look at the chart, if gold were to repeat the moves seen in 2006 and 2008, when gold got down to the lower net commercial short positions, the rallies each time were a staggering 70% to 72% in gold.

If you go back to the 2005 bottom when gold was $412 an ounce, gold subsequently rallied to $714.  This translated into a 70%+ move to the upside in gold.  The same thing occurred during the 2008 rally when gold went from $712 to $1,215.  Again, a 70% to 72% rally….

If we are in fact at this major bottom here around the $1,400 level, we should expect to see a roughly 70% rally in gold, which would take us to the $2,300 to $2,400 level.  Those figures may shock some people because the sentiment is so bearish right now, but that’s what we are looking at in terms of a rally in the gold market.

The worst case scenario is a summer where gold grinds in a bit of a trading range, which would allow the commercials to get long the gold market for the first time since 2001.  This would allow for another month or two of sideways trading while this massive bottom is being formed in gold.

Regardless of whether the rally commences from current levels or it takes some more sideways work, clearly the rally is going to be enormous.  It could even exceed the 70% pattern rallies we have seen in gold in the past.

Clearly with the physical demand around the globe, coupled with central bank buying which is coming mainly out of Asia, any push lower is really going to be met with some more ferocious buying.  So any downdraft will be short, and the rebound will be swift.   But as I noted earlier, gold is going to new all-time highs and this move is going to be launched at a time when sentiment in gold is at the worst level in more than a decade.”

Di bagian akhir laporan ini, seperti biasa saya lampirkan 2 gambar lucu tentang binatang, agar semuanya senantiasa ceria:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 10 Juni 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Mark Carney akan Menekan Poundsterling?

June 10th, 2013 No comments

“I think a lot of what Mark Carney is going to do – clearly he’s not going to state this upfront – is to try and keep sterling certainly from going up and, probably, he’s going to want to see it go lower. On a trade weighted basis I think another 10pc to 15pc is manageable. Against the dollar we’re trading at $1.50 now. The low in 2009 was $1.37. I think that’s eminently achievable. I don’t think $1.37 is a big ask.”

– Pimco managing director and sterling bond head Mike Amey

Di sela-sela pertemuan musim semi International Monetary Fund (IMF) lalu di Washington, Mark Carney, Gubernur BoE terpilih yang akan menggantikan Mervyn King secara resmi Juli tahun ini,  mengatakan: “The US is breaking out of the park of crisis economies that include the euro zone, the UK and Japan.”

Saat itu Carney juga menjelaskan bahwa perekonomian Inggris dalam krisis serta menekankan agar pemerintah tidak seharusnya menyerahkan kepada bank sentral untuk mengembalikan kemakmuran ekonomi negara.

“Can central banks provide sustainable growth? No. They can help with the transition, but they can’t deliver long term growth. That needs to come through true fiscal adjustments and necessary structural reforms… Sustainable growth comes from the private sector.”

Satu hal yang yang perlu diperhatikan dari pendapat Carney adalah benar bahwa pertumbuhan memang tidak terlalu baik, meskipun IMF memangkas estimasinya untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris tahun ini dan mendatang, serta mendesak menteri keuangan untuk mengurangi program penghematan (austerity) bernilai £130 milyar untuk menggairahkan kembali perekonomian.

Berikut saya persembahkan sejumlah laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang akan menjelaskan kondisi genting yang banyak dialami masyarakat Inggris:

1) “Working Poor” Spark 170% Increase In Britons Needing Food Handouts In Past Year (April 24th)

While the dismal news of endlessly rising food stamp recipients in the US seems to be glossed over by most of the media because, well, stock markets are at all-time highs, in Britain, things are becoming increasingly awful. As the FT reports, the number of people receiving emergency food rations has surged from 130,000 to almost 350,000 in the past year. As inflation eroded incomes and government austerity pushed hundreds of thousands into crisis, the ‘working poor’ has emerged. The food bank provider estimates about half of the households it helped has at least one person in work. During the Great Depression, the desperation was graphically evident with long lines of families waiting for soup; in the new depression, the record levels of starving and needy are hidden by a blanket of EBT cards and direct transfers from government. The situation is no less terrible – no matter how hidden from view. As one food bank manager noted, “the fundamental thing is that more and more people are living an increasingly precarious life financially.”

Via The FT,

The 170 per cent surge in demand for food handouts will fuel debate over the impact of government austerity on poorer households, amid concerns about the effect on demand as consumers cut back on everyday spending.

For policy makers, the high proportion of emergency food going to working households illustrates the wider trend in the post-recession job market, where many new jobs are part time, temporary and low paid – meaning even those in work sometimes struggle to put food on the table.

“There was a real shock with one group [of donors] at the concept of the working poor… We know many people who are doing everything they can; they’re in a job, they can’t find another job that pays more, they’re paying rent, water, council tax, electricity, and they honestly struggle to buy food for their family.”

One food bank manager noted… “We are being so pressured to fill the gap that is now being created by the welfare reforms – and we’re not that. We are meant to be short-term help.”

“the fundamental thing is that more and more people are living an increasingly precarious life financially.”

2)   Recovery?: One-In-Five Britons Borrow Money To Afford To Eat (May 5th)

While GBP jumped and the world celebrated the UK’s recent avoidance (for now) of a triple-dip recession (defined on GDP as opposed to reality), the situation in the island nation appears to be going from bad to worse. As Carney takes over the reigns of this once mighty nation he faces a country deeply divided. As the BBC reports, while London real estate prices smash old records, a stunning one-in-five households borrowed money or used savings to cover the costs of food in April. This is the equivalent of five million households unable to fund their food via income alone. Over 80% of these people are concerned about rising food prices (just as print-meister Carney is about to go ‘Abe’ on them) and almost 60% find it difficult to cope on their current incomes. The director of the consumer group ‘Which?’, noted that “many households are stretched to their financial breaking point,” as “families face a cost of living crisis.” While equity and real estate prices hit all-time highs, the opposition sums up the country’s feeling, “this incompetent government needs to wake up to the human cost of their failed economic policies.”

Over one-third of Britons “feel squeezed”

Via BBC,

One in five UK households borrowed money or used savings to cover food costs in April, a Which? survey says.

It suggests the equivalent of five million households used credit cards, overdrafts or savings to buy food.

The figures come despite official statistics last week showing that personal insolvencies had dropped to their lowest levels in five years.

Results showed that of the households who resorted to using credit or savings to pay for food, most were low income families. Among this group:

  • Eight out of 10 (82%) worried about food prices
  • More than half (55%) said they were likely to cut back on food spending in the next few months
  • Nearly six out of 10 (57%) said they found it difficult to cope on their current income
  • A third (32%) borrowed money from friends and family in April

A typical weekly food bill averages about £76, Which? researchers said, up 4% on last year.

Of all the people polled, the research showed:

  • A quarter said they were living comfortably on their incomes
  • More than a third – 36% – felt their finances were under pressure
  • Almost one third – 31% – of those surveyed cut back spending on essentials last month, and they were most likely to be women aged between 30 and 49.

Mr. Lloyd, Which? executive director, said: “Our tracker shows that many households are stretched to their financial breaking point, with rising food prices one of the top worries for squeezed consumers.

Mary Creagh, Labour’s shadow environment secretary, said the UK was facing a “growing epidemic of hidden hunger”.

“Families face a cost of living crisis and are being forced into debt or to use their savings simply to put food on the table.

“This incompetent government needs to wake up to the human cost of their failed economic policies and change course now,” she added.

Mark Carney berusaha membatasi harapan yang berlebihan terhadapnya, yakni bahwa seolah dia akan memimpin penyelamatan ekonomi Inggris. Misalnya, kepada Reuters beberapa waktu lalu di Washington, Carney menekankan bahwa peran yang akan dijalaninya sebagai pemimpin bank sentral Inggris tidak sebesar seperti yang banyak disebut-sebut.

“It’s an honor and responsibility [to be Governor] but it’s a responsibility that can be overplayed as these powers are vested in committees.  I’m a member of these committees.  Policy is not mine.”

Meskipun demikian, menurut saya sebaiknya kita melihat pengalaman-pengalaman Mark Carney ketika memimpin bank sentral Kanada untuk memproyeksikan apa yang akan diperbuatnya menghadapi tantangan sebagai pemimpin bank sentral Inggris.

Kembali Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang akan menjabarkan kisah Mark Carney dalam artikelnya yang berjudul Mark Carney Leaves Canada With ‘Stealth QE’ Rising At Fastest Pace Since 2009, dan dari judulnya saja memberikan gambaran apa yang akan diperbuatnya di Inggris:

“As Mark Carney steps aside from his role at the Bank of Canada to undertake all manner of easy money in the UK, we thought a reflection on the ‘stealth’ QE that he has been engaged with, very much under the radar, in the US’ neighbor-to-the-north was worthwhile. It seems quietly and with little aplomb, Carney’s BoC has grown its balance sheet by over 21% YoY – the most since 2009. If that was not enough to make someone nervous, the quantity of Canadian government bonds on the BoC’s balance sheet has grown at a remarkable 46% YoY! All of this has taken place during a time when ‘supposedly’ the Canadian economy has been reasonably strong and foreign demand for debt high. With Canada’s CAD267bn debt due in 2013, we suspect this ‘stealth’ QE will continue to rise.

The Bank of Canada’s balance-sheet has grown at over 21% YoY…

and its amassing of Canadian govvies has risen at over 46% YoY…

which looks set to continue as they enter 2013 with a massive CAD 267bn due…”

(h/t Mark Hanson)

What Do the Charts Say?

Seperti Anda dapat lihat pada grafik di atas, GBPUSD sedang naik kembali dengan target di kisaran 1.5602 hingga 1.5785 dan akan mengalami tekanan kembali dalam gelombang ke-3 setelah menyelesaikan gelombang ke-2 (kenaikan) yang sedang berjalan saat ini.

Sementara untuk gelombang ke-3 nanti, yang adalah akselerasi penurunan, akan memiliki target mendekati 1.40, bahkan bisa saja GBPUSD menembus level 1.3500 dan akhirnya akan mendekati level parity-nya.

Dan akhirnya saya persembahkan pantun dan gambar jenaka dari William Banzai agar Anda tetap ceria:

The Queen wants to know “Where’s The Beef”
Her subjects are in disbelief
Rampant inflation
Is harming her nation
By way of a BoE thief

The Limerick King

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 07 Juni 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags: