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Apakah Anda Masih Rasional?

July 30th, 2013 No comments

“What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the un-guessable “verdict of history” – what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!”

– Robert A. Heinlein

“What experience and history teach is this – that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deducted from it.”

– Georg Hegel

Saya sudah sering mengatakan bahwa bagi yang ingin mencari kebenaran harus mencarinya melalui media alternatif dan melalui para pemikir kritis yang objektif yang senantiasa berbicara berdasarkan fakta.

Sekarang bukan waktu yang tepat untuk berangan-angan atau berkhayal. Pada akhirnya, fakta lah yang akan berbicara.

Seperti dikatakan Heinlein beberapa dekade lalu bahwa masa depan itu tidak pasti sehingga fakta-fakta adalah penting agar Anda tidak hancur dalam ketidaktahuan.

Juga blog Monty Pelerin’s World baru-baru ini memberikan investor peringatan keras dalam tulisan yang berjudul Economics Cannot Trump Mathematics”, bahwa ketakutan ekstrim itu wajar:

“It is nearly impossible to convince people that an economic ending is likely, perhaps inevitable. It is beyond anything they have seen or can imagine. I attribute that to a normalcy bias, an inherent weakness of experiential learners. For many, accepting something that has not occurred during their time on the planet is not possible. The laws of economics and mathematics may shape history but they are not controlled by history.

The form of cataclysm and its timing is indeterminable. Political decisions continue to shape both. The madmen who are responsible for the coming disaster continue to behave as if they can manage to avoid it.  Violating Einstein’s definition of insanity, they continue to apply the same poison that caused the problem. These fools believe they can manage complexities they do not understand. We are bigger fools for providing them the authority to indulge their hubris and wreak such damage.”

Jadi bagaimana dengan Anda? Jika Anda benar-benar merasa hidup di dunia yang rasional, maka pastinya Anda membaca tulisan dari Jim Quinn di bawah ini, yang dipublikasikan pekan lalu dalam The Burning Platform blog:

“Bernanke has leveraged his balance sheet 60 to 1. Lehman and Bear Stearns were leveraged 30 to 1 when they collapsed. The 100 basis point move in rates over the space of two months has resulted in Bernanke losing $200 billion and effectively wiping out his $55 billion of capital.

Of course, in a corrupt regime accounting fraud is encouraged and applauded by the status quo. Just as the spineless accountants on the FASB buckled to threats from Bernanke and Paulson in early 2009 and reversed the requirement that assets be marked to market so the felonious Wall Street banks could fraudulently hide their insolvency, the Federal Reserve has decided their losses don’t matter. The Federal Reserve classifies their losses as an asset. Don’t you wish you could classify your 401k losses and your home value losses as an asset? The tapering bullshit storyline is just another attempt to distract the masses from focusing on the fact that Bernanke will never stop expanding his balance sheet because if he stops the financial system will collapse in a catastrophic implosion. The Ponzi scheme will continue until loss of faith leads to a scramble away from the U.S. dollar.

The insane amassing of debt since 2008 has put a final nail in the coffin of the ridiculous Keynesian theory, as the Federal government has increased annual spending by 35% over the last five years and the economy is still moribund. Our fearless leaders have driven the national debt from $7.8 trillion to $16.7 trillion in less than five years, a 110% increase. The country continues to add $2 to $3 billion of debt per day. Consider how insane it is that we now accumulate more debt in half a year than we did cumulatively over the first 182 years of our existence as a country. And our elected, or should I say selected, leaders, cheer on the intellectually bankrupt academics like Bernanke whose only solution to every crisis is to print moar and then lie to the American people about his true purpose, act as if annually spending $1 trillion more than we collect while knowing there are over $200 trillion of unfunded promises to fulfill is a reasonable and realistic way to manage the national finances. Any sane person knows our current path will lead to ruin. When you need to issue new debt in order to honor old debt, the end is in sight.

The insanity of our debt accumulation in relation to our pathetic economic growth is clearly evident to even an Ivy League educated economist or a bubble headed CNBC anchorwoman. Since 1971 nominal GDP has grown by a factor of 14. Over this same time frame total credit market debt (household, corporate, government) has grown by a factor of 32. Real GDP (even using the fraudulent BLS manipulated CPI) has only expanded by a factor of 3.5 since 1971. The exponential growth model is clearly failing, with debt going hyperbolic, while GDP has stagnated.

Clearly we’ve entered the final phase of our debt financed orgy of narcissistic materialism and self-absorbed avarice. The unsustainability of our course is a fact. Our society has gone mad en-masse but we are only recovering our sanity one by one. The global financial system is insolvent. A fractional reserve fiat money based system requires continuous growth or it collapses. The global banking system is overleveraged and real global growth is stagnant. Central bankers are not smart men. They have one response to every crisis – print!!! Bernanke and his fellow banker cronies are printing at hyper-speed in order to prop up the terminally ill mega-banks. Bernanke feigns confusion at the fact that his QE to infinity and ZIRP have only benefitted his banker puppet masters and the richest .1%, while further impoverishing senior citizen savers and the working middle class.

Staying sane in a society gone mad is not easy. Millions of people believe themselves to be sane, but they have really just adapted to an insane society, so they appear sane within the warped paradigm of that insane society. The truly sane people appear to be insane in an insane society. It’s enough to drive a man crazy. The immense forces of normalcy bias and social inertia have led millions to refuse to understand the mathematical certainty of the coming collapse. The worldwide banking system is like a great white shark that needs to keep moving or it dies. Exponential growth and continuous credit expansion have been the essential ingredients to expanding the American empire, but the growth has stopped, while the debt keeps growing. Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. As natural resources deplete and become more expensive to obtain, while the planet’s population continues to grow, the fractional reserve banking system and the nation states who continue to pile up trillions in debt will suddenly suffer a catastrophic collapse. We are in the end stages of a confidence game. Your government will not give you warning. We need to come to our senses one by one, until there are enough sane people to tip the scales in our favor.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Seperti yang diperingatkan oleh Adam Taggart dari Peak Prosperity dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Our “As You Wish” Markets Have Reached The Cliffs Of Insanity, bahwa dalam dongeng klasik The Princess Bride dikisahkanbahwa seorang pelayan cantik, Buttercup, memerintahkan seorang anak petani, Westley, melakukan sejumlah tugas untuk menguji kepatuhannya.

Tidak perduli bagaimana besar/sulit permintaannya, Westley hanya menjawab “As you wish” dan melakukannya. Buttercup akhirnya kagum dan cinta sejati pun tumbuh di antara mereka.

Hal yang sama dengan para investor yang jatuh cinta pada pasar modal, yang terus merespon harapan-harapan irasional mereka seolah dengan kalimat “As you wish.” :

Slumping GDP & Revenues

For example, U.S. GDP growth is awful it’s slow and getting slower. It grew 1.8% in Q1 (lower than initially thought) and now analysts are tripping over themselves in a rush to lower their target estimates for Q2; some to as low as 0.3% (Morgan Stanley).

Stock prices are based on assumed future earnings growth. If it looks like companies are going to grow their profits faster in the future, then stock prices should go higher. So, in an economy displaying sluggish/decelerating growth, math would dictate that earnings growth estimates should be handicapped by some factor and stock prices should moderate. But that’s not happening in today’s markets.

Similarly, freshly released Q2 company reports show that a growing number of the largest companies are missing their revenue expectations. And where revenue goes, so earnings (eventually) must follow:

Where Did All the Revenues Go? (Zero Hedge)

According to Deutsche Bank, of the 70 S&P500 companies reporting so far (excluding this morning’s GE EPS beat and revenue miss), 50 have beaten EPS estimates and only 20 of them have missed. As for sales revenue, just 37 of them have topped analysts’ estimates and 33 of them have missed. In reality the revenue beat % is also being skewed slightly higher by the stronger top line performance in US financials so far. If we strip aside US financials, the revenue beat: miss ratio is around 45%:55%. Coca-Cola, Yahoo, Intel, IBM, eBay, Google, GE and MSFT are just some of the household names that have disappointed on the revenue front so far.

One thing is certain: based on the one metric companies can’t fudge, the global economy is not only slowing down, but what’s worse, the hundreds of billions of incremental money created by central banks one and all, is not even making its way into the corporate revenue pipeline. For now, the “hope” strategy has worked (i.e., next quarter things will be better).

But this final fallback, which so far has only disappointed, will soon no longer work, when virtually every known accounting tactic is used up and there is nowhere else to go for EPS than where revenues have already been heading for the past two quarters. Down.

With the downward trajectory in corporate revenues, forward earnings expectations should be moderated from their prior levels and stock prices should adjust downward. But, again, that’s not happening in today’s markets.

Instead, like Buttercup, Wall Street is petulantly demanding rising prices, and the markets are answering: “As you wish.” Yesterday, July 18th, both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs.

Indeed, the markets have been busy the entire past year making wishes for high prices so. And the pace at which these higher prices are being delivered has increased in the past month:

(source: Finviz)

The chart above shows that in July, the slope of price appreciation has become nearly vertical – completely ignoring the slowing GDP and revenue data. To borrow from The Princess Bride again, we’ve reached the Cliffs of Insanity:

Rising Oil Prices

But there’s more that’s making rising stock prices seem even more irrational at this time.

Oil, the master resource that greases the gears of the global economy, has been rising, too.

Today, oil briefly rose above $109 a barrel. It has risen over $15/barrel since early May.

When oil prices rise, the cost of conducting business rises. Therefore, corporate earnings decline. In addition, the price of gasoline rises, hurting consumer spending, which compounds the decline in corporate earnings. And the expectation of these lower earnings should lead to lower stock prices.

But as we see here, the S&P has powered higher during the upward march of crude prices:

Rising Interest Rates

To make matters even worse, interest rates have recently started rising. This will be a huge development if it continues, but rates are already 60% higher than they were a year ago and are sure to have a cooling effect on economic activity (as borrowing costs increase, resulting in less purchasing at both the wholesale and retail levels). Perhaps they already are, as reflected in the slowing GDP numbers above.

Inconceivable!

Just as The Princess Bride was a great fantasy, so is any convoluted rationale being used to justify the current elevation of prices in today’s capital markets.

What if we were to teleport in time to the beginning of the year and ask any impartial analyst what would happen to stocks if H1 2013 experienced:

  • A dramatic deceleration in GDP
  • Revenue misses at many of the biggest blue chip multinational companies
  • Sharply rising oil prices
  • A long-term trend reversal towards rising interest rates

The call would have been easy and likely unanimous: Stocks will go down. Or at the very least, enter a defensive “wait and see” trading range.

Of course, that’s not what’s happened. And the point here is not to bemoan the past, but to ask: What’s more likely to happen from here? A continuation of the same extreme outlying behavior? Or a return to relationships that have governed markets for centuries?

To help in your decision-making, Bank of America just reported that money is now entering the U.S. stock market at the fastest rate since June 2008 (right before the last big market crash):

Largest weekly inflow to U.S. equity funds since June ‘08 (note market value of S&P500 index, adjusted for float, exceeded $15 trillion for the first time ever today) Huge $20bn global equity inflows versus $1bn out of bonds.

That’s a classic signal that a market top is near. Money entering (or remaining in) today’s stock market with the blithe hope that the party will continue onwards may soon find themselves in the Pit of Despair:

At least the gold bugs will be happy to have the company.

Because to expect continued record stock prices in the face of the very fundamental headwinds discussed here is simply…

Di akhir laporan ini, berikut adalah sebuah gambar yang bisa membuat Anda tertawa, mungkin dengan lebar:

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 29 Juli 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Tahan Emas Anda!

July 30th, 2013 No comments

“There is probably no better time to consider diversifying one’s portfolio into a depressed asset class like gold when the crowd is optimistic about a vigorous and self-sustaining economic recovery and when the world’s stock markets are at record high prices. Investor sentiment toward gold probably can’t get much worse, and the growing optimism regarding the trajectory of global economic recovery may not get much better in the weeks and months ahead.”

– Doug Kass, founder of Seabreeze Partners Management

“As soon as we get an ‘event’ which demands people own gold in a hurry (think; Cyprus-style bail-in, overt declaration that the Taper is off the table, more QE etc.) the massive outflows in physical gold over the last few months will become apparent and, as hard as gold has fallen, it has fallen predicated purely on an oversupply of paper. A rise driven by a shortage of the physical metal itself will be far more spectacular.”

– Grant Williams

Waktu untuk membeli asuransi terhadap risiko jatuhnya nilai aset non-fisik (paper asset), yang saya anggap sebagai satu alasan yang paling penting untuk memiliki emas (dan juga perak) secara fisik, adalah ketika Anda tidak membutuhkannya, bukan?

Jangan menunggu sampai aset non-fisiknya jatuh lagi sampai 5 atau 10 persen atau akan sulit untuk mendapatkan logam mulia di harga berapapun.

Ya, saya mengambil resiko dengan memproyeksikan harga emas (dan juga perak) akan naik, tetapi tetap mempertimbangkan bahwa akan ada beberapa jeda waktu sebelum harga naik karena dalam jangka pendek segala sesuatu mungkin terjadi.

Jangan lupa bahwa emas telah menjadi store of value selama bertahun-tahun, puluhan tahun dan bahkan berabad-abad. Jadi meskipun terjadi penurunan harga jangka pendek, emas menurut pendapat saya masih baik.

Dalam 6 bulan terakhir ini memang waktu yang sungguh sulit bagi para investor emas, seperti lelucon Brent Johnson dari Santiago Capital, “if adversity builds character, then we gold investors should build a new Disneyland.”

Namun dijelaskannya dalam sebuah presentasi, faktor-faktor penting untuk memiliki emas masih ada dan bahkan, dalam beberapa hal, lebih jelas dari yang pernah ada karena banyak cerita-cerita yang tidak nyata yang miring mengenai emas.

Ada banyak alasan mengapa alokasi ke aset emas masih perlu:

Dalam pandangannya, pasar menilai emas lebih tinggi daripada uang kas.

James G. Rickards, penulis Currency Wars, baru-baru ini menulis sebuah artikel menarik pada website The Daily Reckoning mengenai alasan agar Anda tidak perlu menanti bank-bank sentral untuk mengadopsi gold standard sebelum Anda mengadopsinya.

Jika Anda masih perlu alasan lebih lanjut untuk memiliki emas, maka baca laporan berikut:

Your Personal Gold Standard

“There isn’t a central bank in the world that wants to go back to a gold standard. But that’s not the point. The point is whether they will have to.

I’ve had conversations with several of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents. When you ask them point-blank, “Is there a theoretical limit to the Fed’s balance sheet?” they say no. They say there are policy reasons to make it higher or lower, but that there’s no limit to the amount of money you can print.

That is completely wrong. That’s what they say; that’s how they think; and that’s how they act. But in their heart of hearts, some people at the Fed know it’s wrong. Luckily, people can vote with their feet.

I always tell people who say we’re not on the gold standard that, in a way, we are. You can put yourself on a personal gold standard just by buying gold. In other words, if you think that the value of paper money will be in some jeopardy, or confidence in paper money may be lost, one way to protect yourself is by buying gold, and there’s nothing stopping you.

The typical rejoinder is, “What’s the point of owning gold? They’re just going to confiscate it, like Roosevelt did in 1933?”

I find that extremely unlikely.

In 1933, we’d just come through four years of the Great Depression, and Roosevelt was new in office. People talk about the first hundred days, but he closed the banks right after he was sworn in. And he confiscated gold only a few weeks later.

And it wasn’t as if Elliot Ness was going door to door, breaking into your house and taking gold. They wanted to get a small number of people who had 400-ounce bars in bank vaults. And they got those people because they were able to close the banks and use them as intermediaries to confiscate that gold. But now, it’s far more dispersed, and there’s far less trust in government.

If the government tried to confiscate gold today, there would be various forms of resistance. The government knows this. So they wouldn’t issue that order, because they know it couldn’t be enforced, and it might cause various kinds of civil disobedience or pushback, etc.

As long as you can own gold, you can put yourself on your own gold standard by converting paper money to gold. I recommend you do that to some extent. Not all in, but I recommend having 10% of your investable assets in gold for the conservative investor, and maybe 20% for the aggressive investor — no more than that.

Those are pretty high allocations relative to what people have. Most people own no gold, and all the institutions combined have an allocation to gold of about 1.5%. So even if you take the low end of this range, you’re still nowhere near 10%. In fact, institutions could not double their gold allocation even to 3%. There’s not enough gold in the world — at current prices — to satisfy that demand. So it’s got this huge upside associated with it.

Still, central banks don’t want to go to a gold standard. But if gold is a barbarous relic, if gold has no role in the monetary system, if gold is a “stupid” investment, then why do the Chinese have 5,000 tons? Are they stupid?

If some scenarios play out, you are going to see the price of gold go up… a lot. And it may go up a lot in a very short period of time. It’s not going to go up 10% per year for seven years and the price doubles. It’s going to chug along sideways, maybe in an upward trend, with a lot of volatility.

It will have a kind of a slow grind upward… and then a spike… and then another spike… and then a super-spike. The whole thing could happen in a matter of 90 days — six months at the most.

When that happens, you’re going to have two Americas. You’re going to have an America that was not prepared. Paper savings will be wiped out; 401(k)s will be devalued; pensions, insurance and annuities will be devalued through inflation… Because remember, it’s not just the price of gold going up.

It’s like putting a thermometer in a patient, getting a 104-degree temperature and blaming the thermometer. The thermometer’s not to blame; it’s just telling you what’s going on. Likewise, the price of gold is not an economic object or aim in itself; it’s a price signal. It tells you what’s going on in the economy. And gold at the levels I’m talking about would mean that you’ve now verged into hyperinflation, or something close to it, because nothing happens in isolation.

At that point, you have to give more credence to gold. Now you’ve crossed the threshold. The minute you think of gold and paper money side by side, or having some relationship, you get to these price levels of $7,000-8,000 an ounce. They’re not made up. They’re not there to be provocative. They’re actually the math. Those are the numbers you get when you simply divide the money supply by the amount of gold in the market.

People are going to have to pay attention to that. And either the Chinese are dopes — which they’re not — or people will start to get gold, which they will.

But if there’s a run on paper currencies (which is entirely possible) and there’s borderline hyperinflation (which is entirely possible), they may have to go to a gold standard… Not because they want to, but because they find it necessary to calm the markets.

I suggest you buy your gold at current levels — $1,200, $1,250 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels ($4,000-5,000 an ounce) and then assess the situation. Be nimble. You can’t just write a game plan today and follow it step by step. That’s nonsense. You have to be nimble; you have to be following developments; you have to be prepared to change your mind based on new news.”

Yang berikut yang tak kalah penting, sebuah laporan terbaru dari para analis Incrementum AG di Liechtenstein yang mengatakan bahwa ada sejumlah alasan bagus untuk bersentimen bullish terhadap emas.

Namun, laporan yang berjudul In GOLD we TRUST 2013,” tersebut memberikan target tahunan emas di level $1480 dan target jangka panjang di $2230.

“Even though the consensus is convinced that the gold bull market has ended, we remain firmly of the opinion that the fundamental argument in favor of gold remains intact,” the 53-page report stated.

The report also said there are no precedents for the current climate of central bank intervention and noted there have been more than 500 interest rate cuts worldwide since 2008.

That makes the need for gold as “monetary insurance” that much more important and will, in turn, push gold prices upward.

“Never before have such enormous monetary policy experiments taken place on a global basis,” the report conclusively said.  “If ever there was a need for monetary insurance, it is today.”

The report further spells out 7 reasons to be bullish on gold:

  • For the first time, the annual “In Gold We Trust” report – now in its seventh year – included a quantitative evaluation of gold with a wide range of scenarios for U.S. monetary policy. Even weighing factors that could lower the price of gold, the report arrived at the long-term target of $2,230.

  • Negative real interest rates are still anticipated for the time being. Amid current financial woes, the report predicted the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all will continue to keep interest rates at a low level. And historically there’s been a strong link between negative real interest rates and gold prices.
  • “Gold is the only liquid investment asset that neither involves a liability nor a creditor relationship,” the report stated, calling gold the “only international means of payment independent of governments” and noting it has survived every war and national bankruptcy.

  • Unlike the gold market in 1979-1980, when the metal’s price soared, it’s unlikely the current bull market will end as a result of a major increase in interest rates, given the fact that governments, corporations and households are saddled with heavy debt.

  • The gold mining industry is undergoing changes to its priorities to put profitability, disciplined capital deployment and stable cash flow per ounce of gold over maximizing gold production. “We believe that the new commitment to transparent cost reporting, greater financial discipline and shareholder value is a crucial – if quite late in coming – insight by the sector,” the report said. And what of gold mining stocks? The report called them the “ultimate contrarian play.”

  • Skepticism, fear and panic are “never observable at the end of a long-term bull market,” said the report. Currently, the report said, “We see anything but euphoria in gold.”

  • A “bottoming process” on gold prices will soon begin, and there’s likely to be “very little” momentum before August. After that, gold prices should begin to rise.

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada 18 Juli lalu, analis terkemuka Citi, Tom Fitzpatrick, menulis laporan yang juga menarik mengenai emas, yang menurutnya harganya akan mengalami kenaikan besar dari levelnya kini.

Berikut yang dikatakannya disertai dengan 2 grafik menarik:

“Gold is really now looking like it is set to make a move higher.  Gold had these initial support levels which the down-move had taken gold to, but gold has now pushed back above those important areas.

We would like to see a weekly close above this $1,322 area, which represents the lows we had in the April down-move.  That weekly close will open up the gold market for continued upside.  The next target after that would be to continue to rally and retest what was the impulsive breakdown at the $1,522 zone, which would represent roughly another $180 on the upside for gold (see chart above).”

We are increasingly of the view that gold has bottomed.  We have always viewed the down-move in gold as a correction, albeit a severe one, but a correction nonetheless.  This will now provide the platform for the metal to push higher in its secular bull market.

For what it is worth, there is an interesting correlation to what we are seeing today in the gold market and what happened at the bottom in gold in 1976.  4 weeks after the low was posted in gold in August of 1976, the equity market rally peaked with a marginal new high as gold closed that week 14% off the correction low.  The low so far in gold was posed 4 weeks ago.

In addition, the equity market has posted a new high this week, and a price 14% off the low would put gold at $1,345.  In this 4 week period the equity market has rallied 7% so far, or about half what the gold price has done.  This is very similar to 1976 where the equity market bounced 6% to marginal new highs before turning.  This is just more evidence to us that the bottom is most likely in for the gold market.”

Nevertheless, there was a note of caution from Greg Guenthner at The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening, which according to me, we should keep in mind when trading the gold market:

“Now, we’re looking at gold’s first significant oversold bounce since it started crashing in April. Extremely bearish sentiment worked in gold’s favor, producing a nice short squeeze that propelled the spot price above resistance.

So where will the metal go from here?

The next important resistance level I’m seeing is in the $1,340-$1,350 range. Remember, until it proves otherwise, gold is still in middle of a countertrend rally. The overall trend is down. That doesn’t mean a move much higher isn’t possible – but there remains plenty of resistance to clear before gold can get back on track.

If you’re playing the countertrend move, don’t take anything for granted. Keep your stops tight and one eye on key resistance levels.”

Kesimpulan

Dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Gold – Has The ‘Narrative’ Failed?,” Pater Tenebrarum melalui Acting-Man blog memberikan ringkasan bagus mengenai perkembangan pasar emas saat ini:

“The current monetary system essentially faces two possibilities: either there will be massive deleveraging on a scale never before seen (commensurate to the build-up of the debt overhang), or it will continue to inflate. Guess what: massive deleveraging is simply politically intolerable. It can perhaps be forced on a few hapless smaller victims like Greece and Portugal, but no-one can force it on, say, France or the US. On the contrary, the current orthodoxy of central banking has one, and only one, solution for the dilemma: print more money.

As long as this is the case, we can expect the fundamental drivers of the long term gold bull market to remain intact. This time, no Volcker will ride to the rescue either. What he did simply can no longer be done. If you want to know why, compare the stock of debt of 1979 (approx. 150% of GDP) to that of today (approx. 360% of GDP).

One day we may even get to see those parts of the ‘narrative’ play out that Mr. Ritholtz deems to be an impossibility, namely the collapse of the current monetary system. Contrary to what one may think, it would not be a big deal historically speaking. Currency systems have imploded throughout history, and the current one is a prime candidate for that fate, given that it is entirely based on a mixture of faith and coercion. We certainly don’t believe that eventuality to be imminent, but we think it is almost inevitable in the long run.

However, let us once again stress: this has no relevance to the secular gold bull market’s likely progression over the next few years. We happen to believe that gold’s price will eventually rise to levels that would be considered absurd today. When gold was ‘cut loose’ from the dollar in 1971 at $35 per ounce, a price of $850 looked like an absurdity as well, and yet it eventually happened.

Of course, right now, a cyclical bear market is underway, so let us not get carried away here. As noted above, we cannot be sure to what extent the tree will need to be shaken before the bull market resumes, but we do feel quite confident that the long term bullish case remains perfectly intact.”

Agar tetap ceria, berikut  sebuah gambar lucu mengenai anjing:

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 25 Juli 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Akumulasi Emas Cina untuk Melindungi Yuan?

July 25th, 2013 No comments

“When most currencies were on the gold standard, a unit of currency could be exchanged by central banks for a fixed weight of gold.  That way, paper money could be used instead of using gold or silver coins. The world’s monetary system used to be backed by gold – until Richard Nixon scrapped the dollar’s convertibility into gold 40-odd years ago. This made the dollar the de facto reserve currency, but successive administrators have mismanaged government policy and the US economy is now drowning in a sea of debt. Gold’s inflation-adjusted high, reached after the 1970s oil crisis is about $2,300. Central banks around the world – including China and South Korea are buying again – and investor demand couldn’t be higher.  Gold is a safe haven in turbulent times – and it is going to take years to untangle the mess that has been made of the world’s financial system. Gold is the only alternative to fiat money – and that’s why it will move higher.”

– Gusta Binikos, chief executive officer of FNB Share Investing

Emas, yang tertekan ke level terendahnya dalam 34 bulan pada 28 Juni lalu, berpotensi mengalami tekanan tahunan pertamanya selama 13 tahun dan berdasarkan estimasi Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bisa mencapai level $1050 hingga akhir 2014 mendatang.

Secara khusus, logam mulia tersebut mengakhiri kuartal kedua tahun 2013 di $1192 per ons, yang merupakan level terendahnya sejak Agustus 2010 dan merupakan tekanannya lebih dari 25 persen dari level pembukaan kuartal tersebut.

Namun, saat pihak Barat melarikan diri dari emas, di sisi lain para pembeli emas mulai bermunculan untuk melestarikan kekayaannya.

Seperti dijelaskan Frank Holmes, chief executive & chief investment officer di U.S. Global Investors, dalam laporan terakhirnya:

“Take a look at the chart below which shows total gold production compared to the gold deliveries on the COMEX and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In May, gold imports into the Asian giant rose to the second-highest level ever.

While mining production is around 1,134 tons so far this year, gold delivery on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 918 tons. This is strikingly in contrast to the gold delivery on the COMEX, which stands at only 103 tons year-to-date as of the end of May.

In fact, this year’s demand is so significant that the physical gold delivered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange through May is almost all of the official gold reserves in China!”

China may be devouring even more of the supply in the future if the price of gold remains subdued.

In yesterday’s episode of The Daily Reckoning, Addison Wiggin gave a preview on how high he expects gold to go given the Fed’s policies and China’s massive buy-up.  Please read it carefully and act accordingly:

“Here we are, nearly every asset class is selling off and the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation are so low they’re in the Fed’s panic zone. It seems like right now, from their standpoint, the playbook isn’t working. What gives?

“There’s an ideal playbook, and it would look something like this:” explains Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, “You’d have higher inflation than we’d have today, but not super high. It might be in the 3-4% range. GDP of maybe 5% — which is pretty high — and then that would bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio so the United States doesn’t look like Greece.”

The result would be a cheaper dollar, which would help exports and get the inflation the Fed wants. “And you’d have negative real interest rates,” he added, “which is to say inflation would be higher than the nominal rate — so let’s say inflation 3.5% and a nominal rate of maybe 2.5%, you’d have 1% negative rates.”

But if we look closely, says Rickards, none of that is happening. There’s no inflation…in fact, the Fed is talking about deflation, which to them is worse. Instead of a weaker dollar, we have a stronger one. Interest rates are rising, but without any inflation, we’re getting positive real rates.

“I don’t think the market correction was really about believing that the Fed would actually ‘taper,’” he continued, “the way they said they’re going to or raising interest rates in 2014, which I don’t think anyone expects, although there was a lot of talk about that.”

Mr. Rickards thinks the Fed is way off the mark about the economy’s health. Bernanke thinks the economy is in much better shape than it really is. “My expectation between now and [the next major Fed meeting in] September,” he told us, “is that as the data come in, it’ll be very clear their forecast is wrong, again. You look at the Fed’s forecasts for the last four years, they were wrong every time, and they were wrong by a lot — meaning why should we believe the forecast now? [See chart nearby.] They’re not going to taper.”

After September, things get even more interesting. After all, Jim reminds us, Bernanke will be a lame duck. That means his last Board of Governors meeting will be in January. “We can’t be certain of this,” Rickards qualified, “but it seems very unlikely that he’s going to do anything dramatic on his way out the door. If Bernanke actually does taper in September, which I don’t expect, it’s going to be a shock to the markets, and we’re going to see more of a drawdown in gold, a drawdown in stocks, etc.”

After we had our fill about the Fed, we pivoted to gold. The People’s Bank of China last revealed its total gold holdings in April 2009 — 1,054 tons — and they could use it as a weapon in the currency wars.

“I don’t know specifically” he said. “I certainly don’t want to pretend I have that date here on my desk.” But he said he expects the Chinese to give an update of their official gold figures at the end of the first quarter in 2014. That date would match with China’s previous announcements.

He confirmed that “they made that announcement in April 2009. The last prior announcement was, I think, five years earlier.” But he told us something more important: “If you’re China, the last thing you want to do is be transparent about your gold purchases, because it will drive the price up.”

So, we wondered, what will make the Chinese reveal their true gold purchases? Mr. Rickards answered simply they’ll do it when they “have enough gold that you don’t need more. In other words, they may want more, they may buy more, but they want to be in a position where they just raise their hand and say to the world, ‘Hey, we’ve got our gold, now we’re a player. Now when the international monetary system collapses and the world has to reconfigure the system, we get a big seat at the table.’”

He compared China’s strategy to a game of Texas hold ‘em. “You want a big pile of chips. The U.S. has a big pile of chips; Europe has a big pile of chips. The U.S. has 8,000 tons of gold, 17 members of the euro system have 10,000 tons. China at 1,000 tons is not a player, but at 5,000 tons, they are a player.”

According to his best information…China is there already. To be clear, no one really knows –except for maybe a member of the Communist Party, says Jim. “But I have spoken to a number of sources in Asia,” he told us, “I’ve spoken to a number of people who are very close to the physical market, I’ve done my own investigations, etc. Every time I have an estimate and try to verify it, what I get back is that I’m wrong on the low side.”


So he expects that come April 2014, China will announce that they own 5,000 tons of gold.

“That should be an earthquake. Because even the gold deniers, the gold doubters, are going to have to sit up and take notice. Either the Chinese are dopes, which they’re not, or people will start to get gold, which I think they will.”

If these scenarios played out, gold would go a lot higher. Jim told us it could go up in a very short span of time, say, 90 days or at the most six months.

“The world of $4,000 gold is the world of $400 oil, $100 silver, higher prices for copper, corn, wheat and everything else,” he continued. “In other words, it’s a world of very high inflation in which the value of your retirement funds and your annuities, etc., have been wiped out.

In that case, there will be winners and losers. As Mr. Rickards explains, the winners will include those that hold gold. “That’s going to be a very small minority. It’s a small minority today. It might get a little bit larger, but that’s not most of the population.”

The losers will be everyone else. “So,” Jim explains, “you’re going to have this resentment, this political resentment, where the vast majority of the people who just sort of took it on the chin are going to be looking at a small number of people who protected themselves, and they’re going to say that’s not fair. And we’ve seen this before. Congress has a way of dealing with it, which is a windfall profits tax.”

He was quick to add that laws like that don’t happen overnight — there’s a legislative process that bogs it down. “Secondly,” he adds, “you should be able to see it coming and maybe pivot out.”

Per Mr. Rickards’ recommendation, “buy your gold at current levels — $1,200, $1,250 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels, $4,000-5,000 an ounce, and then assess the situation. Be nimble. I don’t think you can just write a game plan today and say here’s the plan and just follow it step by step. That’s nonsense. You have to be nimble, you have to be following developments, you have to be prepared to change your mind based on new news.”

Selanjutnya Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com baru-baru ini menulis sebuah artikel bagus yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA mengenai permintaan Cina terhadap emas yang seolah tidak pernah puas, yang berjudul China Radio: “The U.S. And Europe Have Always Suppressed The Rising Price Of Gold”:

“Sometimes, such as after pervasive liquidations in precious metals (or is that AAPL? Has it become clear yet that with widespread “quality” collateral shortages, gold and AAPL stock have become unexpected and almost interchangeable collateral replacements) it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. A forest, in which the New York Fed is procuring (through the open market) the rehypothecated gold that the Bundesbank demanded for repatriation in January; in which JPMorgan’s gold holdings have plunged by 75% since said stunning Bundesbank announcement and hit new record lows on a weekly basis paradoxically just as the price of spot gold keeps sliding ever lower; and in which China is importing unprecedented amounts of gold and adding more and more each month. So let’s do a quick refresh on the forest, shall we.

Here is what we discovered in September 2011, as part of Bradley Manning’s trove of declassified US cables. From Wikileaks:

3. CHINA’S GOLD RESERVES

“China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone”

“The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal (Shijie Xinwenbao) (04/28): “According to China’s National Foreign Exchanges Administration China’s gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold.

They intend to weaken gold’s function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.”

And now for some empirical trees.

While we don’t know how much of the several hundred tons that Jens Weidmann has demanded for delivery from Liberty 33 has already been purchased and/or delivered, we know one thing: since publishing the Wikileaks disclosure China has imported nearly 2,000 tons, and just under 1,500 tons since January 2012…

… and that Chinese gold imports in 2013 continue to surpass those from 2012 “despite” the violent slide in the gold price – almost as if unlike E*trade momentum chasing babies, China buys more the lower the price drops.

In other words, China – pragmatic as always – decided to call the “rising gold price suppression” bluff of the US and Europe and do the only logical thing that takes advantage of an artificially suppressed gold price: buy hand over fist.

As for everyone else selling their (mostly paper) gold over fears that this time, unlike the previous two, Bernanke will actually stop monetizing debt and in the process eliminate all concerns of monetary collapse, China is happy to wave it in (and why not: it is only a matter of time before the taper makes way for the untaper).

Finally, we concluded our previous post looking at recent gold technicals with the following rhetorical question:

Someone more inquisitive than us may wonder: just where is all this gold being “withdrawn” to…

Rhetorical, because we have a very good idea where this gold is going.”

Karena gambar bisa menjelaskan segalanya…

Kadang ada orang yang harus melihat sendiri untuk percaya, dalam hal ini hanya untuk mempercayai betapa besar demand emas di Cina sepanjang kondisi moneter yang relatif stabil.

Jika Anda belum paham dengan apa yang saya katakan, maka silahkan lihat sejumlah gambar dalam artikel Mac Slavo dari www.shtfplan.com berikut ini:

Gold Buying Panic In China: 10,000 People Wait In Line For Their Chance to Own Precious

“One day in the near future Americans will finally realize that their money is being devalued at a rapid pace. For the time being the price increases are somewhat muted by official announcements of inflation being under control at around 2% and purported economic recovery on the horizon. The Federal Reserve and the US government are doing everything in their power to maintain a perception of stability.

But what happens when all the machinations are proven to be fruitless during the next stock market crash and currency crisis?

That’s when people panic. That’s when they start mass selling assets that hold no true value, and shift their capital to physical goods that store and preserve wealth.

In China, where the central government has manipulated the currency, economic and financial markets for decades, the people have seen it all before. And they aren’t taking any chances.

While the paper price of gold and silver may have dropped nearly 25% this year, it’s clear that demand in the real world is soaring.

If you want to know what it’s going to look like in front of precious metals dealers when confidence in our government’s ability to manage this crisis is finally lost for good, then look no further than the streets of China.

The following pictures, taken in Jinan in the last 48 hours, depict some 10,000 Chinese citizens lining up to buy physical gold, providing all the evidence you need for the argument that gold is, in fact, money.

These are absolutely stunning.

Images from Caixin via Zero Hedge

The pictures are reminiscent of Americans lining up around the block during the gold buying sprees of the 1980′s in an attempt to get their hands on physical gold and silver.

Just as is the case with food, guns, ammunition, Xboxes, and iPhones, when widespread demand strikes it’s nearly impossible to get your hands on the goods you need at a fair price.

Get yours now, before the panicked masses realize what has happened.”

Kesimpulan

Daripada fokus pada hal-hal dalam jangka pendek, sebaiknya para investor melihat keuntungan jangka panjang dalam investasi logam mulia. Dalam sebuah wawancara baru-baru ini, Mike Maloney, pendiri sekaligus pemilik GoldSilver.com, salah satu dealer emas terbesar dunia, mengatakan:

“We will soon witness the greatest transfer of wealth ever seen, as countries worldwide realize they need to revert to monetary systems backed by sound money (i.e., the precious metals).  Those acquiring gold and silver beforehand will not only preserve their wealth as existing fiat currencies are extinguished, but will see staggering increases in their purchasing power.”

Emas (dan juga tentunya perak) sering mengalami variasi gerak harga, namun secara keseluruhan meskipun mengalami pergerakan yang bergelombang, pembelian logam mulai akan menjadi vital bagi kesejahteraan investors dan juga kesuksesan di pasar saat ini.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga memperoleh keuntungan hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 24 Juli 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Akan Seperti Tahun 1970an Kembali?

July 23rd, 2013 No comments

“I think investors have to keep in mind that this has been the largest takedown in any single quarter in the history of the supposedly free-trading gold market, and it’s going to go back violently the other way. We are only going to see the currency wars intensify in the future. And because the global economy is in shambles and countries are competing to debase their currencies in order to grab a share of what is continuing to become a shrinking economic pie, this means more and more money creation. This will lead to stagflation on steroids, and the stagflation of the 1970s created a 25-fold move in gold and a 38-fold move in silver. The reality is that investors should expect at least those kinds of moves for gold and silver this time around if not more.”

– John Embry

Sentimen bearish emas jangka menengah nampaknya masih berlangsung dan belum menunjukkan tanda akan berakhir. Dimulai sejak exodus emas yang terus-menerus pada musim winter dan kemudian berkembang lebih dramatis di musim spring.

Dalam beberapa bulan ini, emas telah mengalami penurunan yang menakutkan sehingga membuat para ‘pendukung setia’nya pun enggan melakukan transaksi.  Harga emas jatuh hingga ke level terendahnya hampir selama 3 tahun.

Bukan seperti emas – logam mulia yang setiap tahun selalu naik dalam dekade terakhir ini. Kejatuhan emas tersebut sebagian memang disebabkan oleh kuatnya performansi di bursa saham.

Ya memang tidak begitu banyak ketakutan para investor.  Atau dengan kata lain, setidaknya mereka tidak ketakutan terhadap segala sesuatu. Di saat absennya volatilitas, para investor pun tidak banyak terdorong untuk ke aset safe haven seperti emas.

Selain itu, komoditas yang dikenal sebagai inflation hedge ini diragukan nilainya ketika inflasi tidak ada. Dan bagi para investors yang masih berharap bahwa stimulus agresif the Fed AS bakal mendorong inflasi, sudah mulai menipis kesabarannya.

Jadi apakah sentimen bullish emas sudah berakhir, atau penurunan menakutkan emas tersebut hanya merupakan koreksi jangka menengah yang nanti akan segera diikuti dengan kelanjutan sentimen bullish jangka panjangnya?

Ini adalah pertanyaan yang jawabannya ada dalam 2 artikel berikut, yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, khususnya bagi yang kehilangan kesabaran dan kepercayaan terhadap emas.

Yang pertama dari Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst pada Casey Research, yang mendalami gerak turun emas besar-besaran baru-baru ini dalam artikelnya yang berjudul Telegraphing the Turnaround in Gold:

“As of last Friday, gold has now fallen as much 35.4% (based on London PM fix prices) over 96 weeks. But if you’re like us, you still recognize that the core reasons for investing in gold haven’t changed. People who sold their gold recently made a shortsighted decision. Before too long precious metals will rebound—and probably in a big way.

But when? Does history have any clues about how long we’ll have to wait for that rebound?

Perhaps the most constructive way to forecast a turnaround in gold is to look at how its price behaved in prior big corrections.

Here’s an updated view of gold’s three largest corrections since 2001, along with the time it took the price to return to the old high and stay above that level.

It has taken a significant amount time for gold to return to old highs after each big selloff this cycle. And the bigger the correction, the longer it has taken—with each correction lasting longer than the last.

However, I think our current correction more closely resembles what occurred in 1974-1976 than any of the dips so far this cycle. Here’s an updated overlay of the gold price then and now.

As you can see, during the big correction of the 1970s, gold declined 47% and took 187 weeks to recapture old highs. This fits in with the pattern discussed above: the bigger the correction, the lengthier the recovery. Another interesting pattern: the time to reach new highs always equals or exceeds the duration of the decline.

While the current correction hasn’t been as deep as that of the mid-’70s, the decline is already longer, and it’s the most prolonged of the current cycle. It is thus reasonable to expect gold to take two years or more to regain the $1,900 level and continue beyond. Barring a black swan event, gold will likely log its first annual loss since 2000 this year. These are not predictions, just possibilities, and a reminder that if gold is slow to recover, it’s simply adhering to past patterns.

However, it’s not all bad news, as the chart shows: gold nearly doubled in the two years from its ’76 low to its ’78 return to former highs. The message here is obvious: add to your inventory at depressed levels. And don’t worry about missing the bottom; investors who waited to buy until gold had retraced 30% of its decline still netted about a 70% gain once it returned to prior highs.

The same patterns hold true with stocks. You can see the high-to-low-to-prior-high time frame was longer, but the gains were bigger once the dust settled.

Investors who bucked the conventional wisdom of the day and bought a basket of gold and silver producers in the autumn of 1976—after they had dropped by almost 70%—more than tripled their investment. We’re now approaching the degree of selloff that was seen then, setting up a similar opportunity to profit.

Don’t let the long recovery times shown in the charts deter you. Stay focused on the pattern; once the declines reversed, the general trend was up. Contrarians and forward-thinking investors need to prepare for that reality, rather than take umbrage with how long it might take to beat old highs. By the time mainstream analysts—who know little about gold in the first place—declare it has entered a “new” bull market, the lows will be long behind us, along with the best buying opportunities.

Selloffs Can Be Profitable Setups

Once gold bottomed at $103.50 on August 25, 1976, the trend reversed and the metal rose a whopping 721% to peak at $850 on January 21, 1980.

Silver’s climb was even more dramatic. From its 1976 low of $4.08, it soared 1,101%. This is the 10-bagger grail of investing, where investors had the chance to add a zero to their initial investments.

But remember: the process was multiyear and began after a dismal two-year decline that was punctuated with sharp selloffs, similar to gold’s behavior since its 2011 high. While that’s a stupendous return within a short time frame, the biggest gains were seen in the final five months. The patience of some investors would certainly have been tested in those first three years.

Here’s a look at the gains for the metals from their respective lows.

Both gold and silver logged double-digit returns every year after the bottom (except silver the first year). Once the momentum had shifted, buying and holding while the fundamental forces played out led to huge profits. No “trading” was necessary; just buy after a big correction and hold on for the ride.

No need to attempt to time the bottom, either; those who bought a year after the lows still reaped gains of 490% for gold and 996% for silver. The largest chunk of profits came in the second year and beyond.

Also of note is that the second leg up in precious metals was bigger than the first. There’s no reason to think we won’t experience the same thing this time around.

The messages from history are self-evident:

  • Be patient. Odds favor gold emerging from a period of price consolidation and volatility. This process will take time.
  • Be prepared. Big gains follow big selloffs. We can’t be certain if the final bottom is in yet, but buying at these levels will ultimately net big profits if you’re buying the most solid of the major producers and potentially life-changing gains if you’re buying the best juniors.”

Artikel kedua juga akan bernilai untuk Anda yang dibuat oleh Peter Schiff dari Euro Pacific Capital, yang menjelaskan tentang gold bug bashing:

The Golden Cycle

The New York Times had the definitive take on the vicious sell off in gold. To summarize one of their articles:

Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in flight.  The most recent advisory from a leading Wall Street firm suggests that the price will continue to drift downward, and may ultimately settle 40% below current levels.

The rout says a lot about consumer confidence in the worldwide recovery. The sharply reduced rates of inflation combined with resurgence of other, more economically productive investments, such as stocks, real estate, and bank savings have combined to eliminate gold’s allure.

Although the American economy has reduced its rapid rate of recovery, it is still on a firm expansionary course. The fear that dominated two years ago has largely vanished, replaced by a recovery that has turned the gold speculators’ dreams into a nightmare.

This analysis provides a good representation of the current conventional wisdom. The only twist here is that the article from which this summary is derived appeared in the August 29, 1976 edition of The New York Times. At that time gold was preparing to embark on an historic rally that would push it up more than 700% a little over three years later. Is it possible that the history is about to repeat itself?

At the time The Times article was written gold had fallen to $103 per ounce, a decline of nearly 50% from the roughly $200 it had sold for in the closing days of 1974. The $200 price had capped a furious three-year rally that began in August of 1971 when President Nixon “temporarily” closed the gold window and allowed gold to float freely. Prior to that decision gold had been fixed at $35 per ounce for nearly two generations. That initial three year 450% rally had validated the forecasts of the “gold bugs” who had predicted a rapid rise in gold prices should the dollar’s link to gold be severed. The accuracy of these formerly marginalized analysts proved to be a bitter pill for the mainstream voices in Washington and Wall Street who, for reasons of power, politics and profit, were anxious to confine the “barbarous relic” to the dustbin of history. Incredulous as it may seem now, with gold still priced at $35 per ounce, official forecasts of both the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve were that demonetizing gold would undermine its value, and that its price would actually fall as a result.

Of course government experts could not have been more wrong. Once uncoupled from the dollar, gold’s initial ascent in the early 1970′s was fueled by the highest inflation in generations and the deteriorating health of the U.S. economy that had been ravaged by the “guns and butter” policies of the 1960′s. But the American economy stabilized during the mid-years of the 1970′s and both inflation and unemployment fell. When gold reversed course in 1975 the voices of traditional power elite could not contain their glee. When the gold price approached $100 per ounce, a nearly 50% decline, the obituaries came fast and furious. Everyone assumed that the gold mania would never return.

Although the writer of The Times piece did not yet know it, the bottom for gold had been established four days before his article was published. Few realized at the time that the real economic pain of the 1970′s had (to paraphrase The Carpenters 1970′s hit) “Only Just Begun”. When inflation and recession came back with a vengeance in the late 1970′s, gold took off (to quote another 1970′s gem), like a skyrocket in flight. By January 1980, gold topped out at $850 an ounce. The second leg of the rally proved to be bigger than the first.

The parallel between the 1970s and the current period are even more striking when you look closely at the numbers. For example, from 1971 to 1974 gold prices rose by 458% from $35 to $195.25, which was then followed by a two-year correction of nearly 50%. This reduced total gains to just under 200%. The current bull market that began back in 2000 took a bit longer to evolve, but the percentage gains are very similar. (We should allow for a more compressed time frame in the 1970s because of the sudden untethering of gold after decades of restraint.) From its 1999 low to its 2011 peak, gold rose by about 650% from $253 to $1895 per ounce, followed by a two year correction of approximately 37%, down to around $1190 per ounce. The pullback has reduced the total rally to about 370%. The mainstream is saying now, as they did then, that the pullback has invalidated fears that rising U. S. budget deficits, overly accommodative monetary policy, and a weakening economy will combine to bring down the dollar and ignite inflation. But 1976 was not the end of the game. In all likelihood, 2013 will not be either.

The biggest difference between then and now is that until 1975 ordinary Americans were barred by law from buying and owning gold. About the only route available to participate in the earlier stage of the precious metal rally was by hording silver dimes, quarters and half dollars minted prior to 1965. My father indulged in this process himself by sifting through his change, the cash registers of any merchant who would allow him (exchanging new non-silver coins and bills for silver), and by sifting out silver coins from rolls he bought from banks. It was a time-consuming process, and most of his friends and family members thought he was crazy. After all, he had $10,000 worth of pocket change earning no interest. But the $10,000 face value worth of those coins he collected had a melt value of over $350,000 when silver hit its peak.

By the mid 1970′s none of the problems that initially led to the recession in the early years of the decade had been solved. Contrary to the claims of the “experts” things got much worse in the years ahead. It took the much deeper recession of the late 1970′s and early 1980′s, which at the time was the worst economic down-turn since the great Depression, to finally purge the economy of all the excesses. The lower marginal tax rates and cuts in regulation implemented by President Reagan and tight money under Volcker helped get the economy back on track and create investment opportunities that drew money away from gold. As a result gold fell hard during the early 1980′s. But even after the declines, gold maintained levels for the next 20 years that were three to four times as high as the 1976 lows.

Although the economy improved in the 1980′s, the cure was not complete. Government spending, budget and trade deficits continued to take a heavy toll. The U.S. was transformed from the world’s largest creditor to its largest debtor. When the time came to face the music in 2001, the Fed kept the party going by opening the monetary spigots. Then when decades of monetary excess finally came to a head in 2008, the Fed opened up its monetary spigots even wider, flooding the economy with even more cheap money.

Unfortunately just like 1976, a true economic recovery is not just around the corner. More likely we are in the eye of an economic storm that will blow much harder than the stagflation winds of the Jimmy Carter years. And once again the establishment is using the decline in the price of gold to validate its misguided policies and discredit its critics. But none of the problems that led me and other modern day gold bugs to buy gold ten years ago have been solved. In fact, monetary and fiscal policies have actually made them much worse. The sad truth is that as bad as things were back in 1976, they are much worse now. Whether as a nation we will be able to rise to the occasion, and actually finish the job that Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker started remains to be seen. But I am confident that the price of gold will rise much higher, and that its final ascent will be that much more spectacular the longer we continue on our current policy path. Don’t believe the mainstream. Just as before, they will likely be wrong again.

Catatan pribadi: Emas kemungkinan akan naik dalam beberapa bulan mendatang, namun perlu meningkat terlebih dahulu di sepanjang pekan ini.

Memang masih jauh untuk menuju ke level $1400, namun dengan tembusnya ke atas level $1300 saat ini maka ada peluang untuk menuju areal resistance $1350.

Seperti biasa di akhir tulisan agar senantiasa ceria, berikut adalah sebuah gambar lucu untuk Anda:

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 23 Juli 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Mengapa Harga Emas Turun Begitu Banyak?

July 22nd, 2013 No comments

“After mulling over the situation for days, I have finally decided that, in deference to my subscribers, the best position for me is to have no position in the market. As soon as you buy stocks, the normal sentiment is to want the market to go up. I don’t want to be in the position of wanting the market to go up or down. I want to be emotionally neutral and basically realistic.  Therefore, the only position I will own will be gold. I have not added or subtracted gold from my position in a long time, nor will I. I treat gold like my home. It’s a tangible asset, and I don’t trade it.”

– Richard Russell…17 June 2013

Setelah kembali dari liburan di Belgia bertemu sanak keluarga, “my batteries are fully charged” dan saya benar-benar bersemangat lagi untuk menulis laporan mengenai perkembangan terakhir di pasar finansial.

Seperti judul di atas, pekan ini saya mulai dengan salah satu topik pembahasan favorit saya, yakni emas.

Emas telah turun besar akibat isu tapering (pengurangan stimulus) yang diikuti dengan kenaikan suku bunga serta keringnya likuiditas, hingga menembus ke bawah level $1200 pada akhir Juni untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus 2010.

Kita juga tahu India, pembeli emas terbesar di dunia, mencoba membatasi permintaan emas. Karena pemerintahnya berusaha untuk mengurangi rekor defisit transaksi berjalan, maka tarif impor emas dinaikkan hingga 8 persen dan memperkenalkan ketentuan (batasan) baru untuk pinjaman di daerah pedesaan terhadap perhiasan dan koin emas.

Faktor lain yang memicu likuidasi adalah kenaikan margin requirement emas oleh CME Group, operator terbesar bursa berjangka di AS, dan kekhawatiran likuiditas global di AS dan Cina.

Tapi alasan utama penurunan besar emas, menurut pendapat saya secara sederhana, adalah manipulasi terus menerus di pasar emas (dan juga perak).

Misalnya, ketika harga turun pada pertengahan April dan pada tanggal 20-28 Juni, penurunan yang disebabkan penjualan emas (dan perak) dalam jumlah besar dan waktu singkat, suatu pola yang tidak biasanya terjadi di pasar bebas.

Dalam jumlah besar maksudnya adalah sejumlah penjualan dari individu adalah untuk perdagangan dalam kontrak yang sama dengan beberapa bulan produksi pertambangan di seluruh dunia.

Dan yang bisa mengatur jumlah penjualan seperti itu adalah hanyak bank sentral dan lembaga internasional seperti IMF dan BIS (Bank for International Settlements).

Penjualan tersebut semata dilakukan agar harga emas bisa jatuh serendah mungkin – yang adalah bukan tujuan investor – karena ada pihak-pihak yang berusaha untuk melikuidasi posisi besar emas atau perak mereka di harga setinggi mungkin, dan akan terus melakukannya meskipun tidak terlalu banyak mendapat perhatian.

Demikian dengan Eric Sprott, yang adalah seorang Chairman, CEO & Portfolio Manager pada Sinta Asset Management, yang berpendapat bahwa penurunan 3-bulanan (Mei-Juli) terbesar emas dalam lebih dari satu dekade adalah rekayasa.

Dalam Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III, Sprott menjelaskan kenapa bisa demikian:

“Against all odds, the price of gold has experienced a large decline over the past few months, only slightly recovering over the past two weeks or so. Given the strong physical demand and the lack of available supply, we think that this decline was engineered by central and bullion banks to increase available supply and decrease demand. They flooded the COMEX (paper market), only to then free-up physical gold from the various available sources at depressed prices (see our discussion of this topic in the May 2013 Markets at a Glance).

This has been manifested in the GLD trust and the COMEX inventories (see Figure 1b). Since the beginning of the year, and well before the April crash, one of the largest repositories of physical gold, the GLD trust, has seen redemptions of more than 300 tons of gold (Figure 2), while world mine production (excluding Russia and China) is approximately 2,300 tons a year.

FIGURE 2: THE GLD IS ONE OF THE LAST RESERVES OF BULLION

Source: SPDR Gold Trust.

FIGURE 3: COMMERCIAL TRADERS COVER THEIR SHORTS, WHILE SPECULATORS INCREASE THEIRS

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC.

If our thesis is correct, the Central Banks are running out of gold. What would happen if the world found out? This can’t be allowed, so the only option left for central planners is to try to tame the demand for gold.

These events have been met with some concerted reactions from the authorities.

First, in early April, the large commercial banks, who are also active participants in the various gold markets, started recommending that their clients sell gold, saying the metal was overpriced, while at the same time covering their own shorts in record amounts (Figure 3). Simultaneously, we have also seen a record amount of short interest from speculators (non-commercial participants) (Figure 3). More recently there was the talk of tapering by Fed officials that further precipitated the remaining long speculators to sell their positions. Finally, the Indian Central Bank decided, supposedly to reduce their trade deficit, to increase the gold import duty to 8% to try to tame demand (the third increase in 18 months). Then, they imposed further restrictions, such as a tightening of bank credit for bullion importers and limitations on credit card purchases of gold. Those restrictions were interpreted as negative for gold, even though Indians will certainly exploit non-official channels to get their hands on the precious metal (see our Sprott’s Thoughts article on the subject: “Silver is winning India’s “War on Gold””).

FIGURE 4: COMEX VOLUME ON LARGE DOWN DAYS

Suddenly, in a very short period of time, all the stars got aligned by the central planners to depress the price of gold. All that was needed was a few big moves in the paper market to finish the job. As Figure 4 shows, the enormous volume experienced on the largest down days have been highly suspect and unusual. For example, when gold declined more than 9% in April, the total amount of paper gold traded that day was 82% of average annual mine supply and more than 4.3 times the average volume of a normal day. A closer analysis of the tape for those days shows that what drove the price down was a few, very large sell orders on the COMEX. This further hints at price manipulation since a normal trader wanting to close a position would never send the whole order all at once, for fear of moving the market.

FIGURE 5: BULLION BANKS DEMAND MORE PHYSICAL GOLD AS PRICE DROPS
1-MONTH GOFO RATE AND DAYS OF LARGE (>3%) SPOT PRICE DECLINE

To further support our price manipulation hypothesis, we overlay the 1-month GOFO rate (Gold Forward Offered Rate, the interest rate on a loan collateralized by gold) with days where the gold price suffered significant declines (more than 3%) in Figure 5. Unless it is the actual price drop that sparks all this increased demand, it seems counterintuitive that the gold price would decline precipitously before large declines in the GOFO rate, which implies increased demand for physical gold from bullion dealers.

It now seems that bullion banks are in desperate need of bullion, as evidenced by the increasingly negative GOFO rates we are seeing (Figure 5) and the backwardation in the futures market (future gold is sold to a discount to current gold). Remember that a negative GOFO rate signifies that the bullion banks are ready to pay holders of physical to lease their gold, in this case for a month. Historically, negative GOFO rates have happened in very few occurrences. The last one was in November 2008, at the height of the financial crisis and after which gold rose 156% from through-to-peak. Before that, we saw negative GOFO rates in March of 2001 (about the start of the bull market) and September of 1999 (for a thorough discussion of these issues, see the Sprott’s Thoughts article: “Central Banks, Bullion Banks and the Physical Gold Market Conundrum”).

Summary

To recap, we believe that the central planners have engineered the recent gold drawdown in the following way:

  • Brokers recommend their clients to sell gold,
  • The same brokers cover their short positions on the COMEX,
  • While the GLD and the COMEX inventories suffer large redemptions/deliveries,
  • Taper talk crashes the gold price,
  • And India cooperates with other central planners to decrease physical demand.

Result:

  • Record speculator (i.e. hedge funds) short positions,
  • The GOFO rate goes negative,
  • Futures markets go into backwardation,
  • Physical inventories stand at record lows,
  • And a recant on taper.

Conclusion:

This was all orchestrated to increase supply and tame demand. We believe that central planners are now running out of options to suppress the gold price. After taking a pause, the secular gold bull market is set to continue.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Laporan pertama dari Greg Guenthner, seorang editor di the Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening serta kontributor Agora Financial’s Trend Playbook, yang mengatakan bahwa level emas di $1300 merupakan golden pivot point dan sangat penting saat ini:

Gold $1,300: A New Hope

“Gold is quickly approaching the most important potential pivot point it has faced in more than three months.

If it can clear this hurdle, we could see a quick rally and higher prices over the next several weeks. But if it fails, I suspect another test of $1,200 in short order, potentially sending the yellow metal to fresh lows.

I’m not conjuring this vision out of thin air. Gold has been true to its chart since its decline steepened back in April. If you just take a few seconds to analyze the price action, you can see how $1,300 has become the magic number that could trigger a snapback rally.

This chart has two important traits you need to recognize:

First, round numbers clearly matter to gold. $1,350 provided support after the first major push lower back in April. And just a few weeks ago, $1,200 acted as a floor for the yellow metal after another step drop.

Next, check out how the $1,300 level. It’s another round number that also happens to coincide with a trend line that has acted as an important area of resistance during gold’s decline this year. That makes this an area to watch very carefully — especially after gold’s strong push higher last week.

Last week, gold jumped higher, posting its most impressive run since its post-crash push in April. It’s approached $1,300 a couple of times since Thursday, yet turned lower on each attempt. This morning, gold futures are sliding into the red after another go at the $1,290s. If it doesn’t snap back toward $1,300 over the next week or two, expect another move lower.

Of course, my bet is on failure at $1,300, bringing us one step closer to my $1,000 target. But I can’t let my biases cloud my judgment. Same goes for you…

The one thing that could really work in gold’s favor right now is the fact that sentiment is completely in the gutter. It’s not a stretch to say that gold and miners are currently the most hated areas of the market right now. With everyone on one side of the fence, a snapback rally could spark an intense rally.

Keep an eye on $1,300 this week. A breakout or breakdown at this price will tell you whether it’s time to go long or press your shorts.”


Laporan kedua, yang dibuat oleh Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com, bahwa harga emas yang baru saja kembali menembus ke atas $1300 merupakan proses dari shorts covering terbesarnya dalam 4 bulan:

Almost 11% of short gold positions covered in the last week according to CFTC Commitment of Traders’ data. That is the largest weekly drop in net shorts for four months and the combined futures-and-options net long position jumped 13,287 contracts or an impressive 48% (the most since Nov 08). Following the ubiquitous “sell-while-Bernanke-is-speaking” dump last Wednesday gold has risen almost 4% touching $1320 this evening as Asia opens. So with Asian physical demand remaining high and COMEX vault’s running dry (and JPMorgan’s on fire), we wonder – now that Taper is off (according to equity market pundits) if this is the start of the long-awaited short-covering rally back to reality for the precious metal.”

Big short-covering in gold last week…

and gold is breaking back above $1300…

Charts: Bloomberg

Dan sangat menarik untuk melihat apakah emas mampu bertahan di atas $1300 di pekan ini? Dan apakah dolar AS dapat bangkit dari tekanannya yang cukup signifikan terhadap euro maupun pound sterling.

Apapun yang terjadi, harap tetap waspada dan gunakan stop loss karena saya memperkirakan pasar akan bergerak choppy (berombak) tanpa arah yang jelas selama summer yang biasanya lesu aktifitas perdagangan.

Summary

(Dari John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist pada Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund)

“I think there are two things going on right now.  As you know, the bullion banks are as aware as anybody about what is coming.  They have been massively short for the better part of two decades.  They have been effecting the suppression of the gold price.

Now the bullion banks know the jig is up and they are moving rapidly from being massively short, to getting long the metals.  At the same time the Chinese, Russians, and others accumulating physical gold don’t have any great necessity to see the price rise in the short-term if they can acquire gold from the West at these bargain prices.

But when you get the bullion banks correctly positioned from their perspective, and the Indians, Russians, and the Chinese realizing they can’t get any more gold from the West at these prices, then I think you are going to see a dramatic markup in the gold price.

KWN readers around the world have to understand that as global chaos increases, such as we have seen recently, it is a sign we are going to have to recast the entire world currency system.  And when that time comes I suspect it will be a basket of currencies, and so the US will lose its reserve currency status.

The new system will be backed by hard assets, one of which most assuredly will be gold, and the gold price could well be revalued overnight in that process.  The timing of all of this is imprecise, but it’s inevitable.  So as much as the short-term price action might have people frustrated, it shouldn’t disturb their long-term view in the least.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat 22 Juli 2013

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