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Mengapa Harga Emas Turun Begitu Banyak?

“After mulling over the situation for days, I have finally decided that, in deference to my subscribers, the best position for me is to have no position in the market. As soon as you buy stocks, the normal sentiment is to want the market to go up. I don’t want to be in the position of wanting the market to go up or down. I want to be emotionally neutral and basically realistic.  Therefore, the only position I will own will be gold. I have not added or subtracted gold from my position in a long time, nor will I. I treat gold like my home. It’s a tangible asset, and I don’t trade it.”

– Richard Russell…17 June 2013

Setelah kembali dari liburan di Belgia bertemu sanak keluarga, “my batteries are fully charged” dan saya benar-benar bersemangat lagi untuk menulis laporan mengenai perkembangan terakhir di pasar finansial.

Seperti judul di atas, pekan ini saya mulai dengan salah satu topik pembahasan favorit saya, yakni emas.

Emas telah turun besar akibat isu tapering (pengurangan stimulus) yang diikuti dengan kenaikan suku bunga serta keringnya likuiditas, hingga menembus ke bawah level $1200 pada akhir Juni untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus 2010.

Kita juga tahu India, pembeli emas terbesar di dunia, mencoba membatasi permintaan emas. Karena pemerintahnya berusaha untuk mengurangi rekor defisit transaksi berjalan, maka tarif impor emas dinaikkan hingga 8 persen dan memperkenalkan ketentuan (batasan) baru untuk pinjaman di daerah pedesaan terhadap perhiasan dan koin emas.

Faktor lain yang memicu likuidasi adalah kenaikan margin requirement emas oleh CME Group, operator terbesar bursa berjangka di AS, dan kekhawatiran likuiditas global di AS dan Cina.

Tapi alasan utama penurunan besar emas, menurut pendapat saya secara sederhana, adalah manipulasi terus menerus di pasar emas (dan juga perak).

Misalnya, ketika harga turun pada pertengahan April dan pada tanggal 20-28 Juni, penurunan yang disebabkan penjualan emas (dan perak) dalam jumlah besar dan waktu singkat, suatu pola yang tidak biasanya terjadi di pasar bebas.

Dalam jumlah besar maksudnya adalah sejumlah penjualan dari individu adalah untuk perdagangan dalam kontrak yang sama dengan beberapa bulan produksi pertambangan di seluruh dunia.

Dan yang bisa mengatur jumlah penjualan seperti itu adalah hanyak bank sentral dan lembaga internasional seperti IMF dan BIS (Bank for International Settlements).

Penjualan tersebut semata dilakukan agar harga emas bisa jatuh serendah mungkin – yang adalah bukan tujuan investor – karena ada pihak-pihak yang berusaha untuk melikuidasi posisi besar emas atau perak mereka di harga setinggi mungkin, dan akan terus melakukannya meskipun tidak terlalu banyak mendapat perhatian.

Demikian dengan Eric Sprott, yang adalah seorang Chairman, CEO & Portfolio Manager pada Sinta Asset Management, yang berpendapat bahwa penurunan 3-bulanan (Mei-Juli) terbesar emas dalam lebih dari satu dekade adalah rekayasa.

Dalam Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left??? Part III, Sprott menjelaskan kenapa bisa demikian:

“Against all odds, the price of gold has experienced a large decline over the past few months, only slightly recovering over the past two weeks or so. Given the strong physical demand and the lack of available supply, we think that this decline was engineered by central and bullion banks to increase available supply and decrease demand. They flooded the COMEX (paper market), only to then free-up physical gold from the various available sources at depressed prices (see our discussion of this topic in the May 2013 Markets at a Glance).

This has been manifested in the GLD trust and the COMEX inventories (see Figure 1b). Since the beginning of the year, and well before the April crash, one of the largest repositories of physical gold, the GLD trust, has seen redemptions of more than 300 tons of gold (Figure 2), while world mine production (excluding Russia and China) is approximately 2,300 tons a year.

FIGURE 2: THE GLD IS ONE OF THE LAST RESERVES OF BULLION

Source: SPDR Gold Trust.

FIGURE 3: COMMERCIAL TRADERS COVER THEIR SHORTS, WHILE SPECULATORS INCREASE THEIRS

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC.

If our thesis is correct, the Central Banks are running out of gold. What would happen if the world found out? This can’t be allowed, so the only option left for central planners is to try to tame the demand for gold.

These events have been met with some concerted reactions from the authorities.

First, in early April, the large commercial banks, who are also active participants in the various gold markets, started recommending that their clients sell gold, saying the metal was overpriced, while at the same time covering their own shorts in record amounts (Figure 3). Simultaneously, we have also seen a record amount of short interest from speculators (non-commercial participants) (Figure 3). More recently there was the talk of tapering by Fed officials that further precipitated the remaining long speculators to sell their positions. Finally, the Indian Central Bank decided, supposedly to reduce their trade deficit, to increase the gold import duty to 8% to try to tame demand (the third increase in 18 months). Then, they imposed further restrictions, such as a tightening of bank credit for bullion importers and limitations on credit card purchases of gold. Those restrictions were interpreted as negative for gold, even though Indians will certainly exploit non-official channels to get their hands on the precious metal (see our Sprott’s Thoughts article on the subject: “Silver is winning India’s “War on Gold””).

FIGURE 4: COMEX VOLUME ON LARGE DOWN DAYS

Suddenly, in a very short period of time, all the stars got aligned by the central planners to depress the price of gold. All that was needed was a few big moves in the paper market to finish the job. As Figure 4 shows, the enormous volume experienced on the largest down days have been highly suspect and unusual. For example, when gold declined more than 9% in April, the total amount of paper gold traded that day was 82% of average annual mine supply and more than 4.3 times the average volume of a normal day. A closer analysis of the tape for those days shows that what drove the price down was a few, very large sell orders on the COMEX. This further hints at price manipulation since a normal trader wanting to close a position would never send the whole order all at once, for fear of moving the market.

FIGURE 5: BULLION BANKS DEMAND MORE PHYSICAL GOLD AS PRICE DROPS
1-MONTH GOFO RATE AND DAYS OF LARGE (>3%) SPOT PRICE DECLINE

To further support our price manipulation hypothesis, we overlay the 1-month GOFO rate (Gold Forward Offered Rate, the interest rate on a loan collateralized by gold) with days where the gold price suffered significant declines (more than 3%) in Figure 5. Unless it is the actual price drop that sparks all this increased demand, it seems counterintuitive that the gold price would decline precipitously before large declines in the GOFO rate, which implies increased demand for physical gold from bullion dealers.

It now seems that bullion banks are in desperate need of bullion, as evidenced by the increasingly negative GOFO rates we are seeing (Figure 5) and the backwardation in the futures market (future gold is sold to a discount to current gold). Remember that a negative GOFO rate signifies that the bullion banks are ready to pay holders of physical to lease their gold, in this case for a month. Historically, negative GOFO rates have happened in very few occurrences. The last one was in November 2008, at the height of the financial crisis and after which gold rose 156% from through-to-peak. Before that, we saw negative GOFO rates in March of 2001 (about the start of the bull market) and September of 1999 (for a thorough discussion of these issues, see the Sprott’s Thoughts article: “Central Banks, Bullion Banks and the Physical Gold Market Conundrum”).

Summary

To recap, we believe that the central planners have engineered the recent gold drawdown in the following way:

  • Brokers recommend their clients to sell gold,
  • The same brokers cover their short positions on the COMEX,
  • While the GLD and the COMEX inventories suffer large redemptions/deliveries,
  • Taper talk crashes the gold price,
  • And India cooperates with other central planners to decrease physical demand.

Result:

  • Record speculator (i.e. hedge funds) short positions,
  • The GOFO rate goes negative,
  • Futures markets go into backwardation,
  • Physical inventories stand at record lows,
  • And a recant on taper.

Conclusion:

This was all orchestrated to increase supply and tame demand. We believe that central planners are now running out of options to suppress the gold price. After taking a pause, the secular gold bull market is set to continue.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Laporan pertama dari Greg Guenthner, seorang editor di the Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening serta kontributor Agora Financial’s Trend Playbook, yang mengatakan bahwa level emas di $1300 merupakan golden pivot point dan sangat penting saat ini:

Gold $1,300: A New Hope

“Gold is quickly approaching the most important potential pivot point it has faced in more than three months.

If it can clear this hurdle, we could see a quick rally and higher prices over the next several weeks. But if it fails, I suspect another test of $1,200 in short order, potentially sending the yellow metal to fresh lows.

I’m not conjuring this vision out of thin air. Gold has been true to its chart since its decline steepened back in April. If you just take a few seconds to analyze the price action, you can see how $1,300 has become the magic number that could trigger a snapback rally.

This chart has two important traits you need to recognize:

First, round numbers clearly matter to gold. $1,350 provided support after the first major push lower back in April. And just a few weeks ago, $1,200 acted as a floor for the yellow metal after another step drop.

Next, check out how the $1,300 level. It’s another round number that also happens to coincide with a trend line that has acted as an important area of resistance during gold’s decline this year. That makes this an area to watch very carefully — especially after gold’s strong push higher last week.

Last week, gold jumped higher, posting its most impressive run since its post-crash push in April. It’s approached $1,300 a couple of times since Thursday, yet turned lower on each attempt. This morning, gold futures are sliding into the red after another go at the $1,290s. If it doesn’t snap back toward $1,300 over the next week or two, expect another move lower.

Of course, my bet is on failure at $1,300, bringing us one step closer to my $1,000 target. But I can’t let my biases cloud my judgment. Same goes for you…

The one thing that could really work in gold’s favor right now is the fact that sentiment is completely in the gutter. It’s not a stretch to say that gold and miners are currently the most hated areas of the market right now. With everyone on one side of the fence, a snapback rally could spark an intense rally.

Keep an eye on $1,300 this week. A breakout or breakdown at this price will tell you whether it’s time to go long or press your shorts.”


Laporan kedua, yang dibuat oleh Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com, bahwa harga emas yang baru saja kembali menembus ke atas $1300 merupakan proses dari shorts covering terbesarnya dalam 4 bulan:

Almost 11% of short gold positions covered in the last week according to CFTC Commitment of Traders’ data. That is the largest weekly drop in net shorts for four months and the combined futures-and-options net long position jumped 13,287 contracts or an impressive 48% (the most since Nov 08). Following the ubiquitous “sell-while-Bernanke-is-speaking” dump last Wednesday gold has risen almost 4% touching $1320 this evening as Asia opens. So with Asian physical demand remaining high and COMEX vault’s running dry (and JPMorgan’s on fire), we wonder – now that Taper is off (according to equity market pundits) if this is the start of the long-awaited short-covering rally back to reality for the precious metal.”

Big short-covering in gold last week…

and gold is breaking back above $1300…

Charts: Bloomberg

Dan sangat menarik untuk melihat apakah emas mampu bertahan di atas $1300 di pekan ini? Dan apakah dolar AS dapat bangkit dari tekanannya yang cukup signifikan terhadap euro maupun pound sterling.

Apapun yang terjadi, harap tetap waspada dan gunakan stop loss karena saya memperkirakan pasar akan bergerak choppy (berombak) tanpa arah yang jelas selama summer yang biasanya lesu aktifitas perdagangan.

Summary

(Dari John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist pada Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund)

“I think there are two things going on right now.  As you know, the bullion banks are as aware as anybody about what is coming.  They have been massively short for the better part of two decades.  They have been effecting the suppression of the gold price.

Now the bullion banks know the jig is up and they are moving rapidly from being massively short, to getting long the metals.  At the same time the Chinese, Russians, and others accumulating physical gold don’t have any great necessity to see the price rise in the short-term if they can acquire gold from the West at these bargain prices.

But when you get the bullion banks correctly positioned from their perspective, and the Indians, Russians, and the Chinese realizing they can’t get any more gold from the West at these prices, then I think you are going to see a dramatic markup in the gold price.

KWN readers around the world have to understand that as global chaos increases, such as we have seen recently, it is a sign we are going to have to recast the entire world currency system.  And when that time comes I suspect it will be a basket of currencies, and so the US will lose its reserve currency status.

The new system will be backed by hard assets, one of which most assuredly will be gold, and the gold price could well be revalued overnight in that process.  The timing of all of this is imprecise, but it’s inevitable.  So as much as the short-term price action might have people frustrated, it shouldn’t disturb their long-term view in the least.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat 22 Juli 2013

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