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Apakah Akumulasi Emas Cina untuk Melindungi Yuan?

“When most currencies were on the gold standard, a unit of currency could be exchanged by central banks for a fixed weight of gold.  That way, paper money could be used instead of using gold or silver coins. The world’s monetary system used to be backed by gold – until Richard Nixon scrapped the dollar’s convertibility into gold 40-odd years ago. This made the dollar the de facto reserve currency, but successive administrators have mismanaged government policy and the US economy is now drowning in a sea of debt. Gold’s inflation-adjusted high, reached after the 1970s oil crisis is about $2,300. Central banks around the world – including China and South Korea are buying again – and investor demand couldn’t be higher.  Gold is a safe haven in turbulent times – and it is going to take years to untangle the mess that has been made of the world’s financial system. Gold is the only alternative to fiat money – and that’s why it will move higher.”

– Gusta Binikos, chief executive officer of FNB Share Investing

Emas, yang tertekan ke level terendahnya dalam 34 bulan pada 28 Juni lalu, berpotensi mengalami tekanan tahunan pertamanya selama 13 tahun dan berdasarkan estimasi Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bisa mencapai level $1050 hingga akhir 2014 mendatang.

Secara khusus, logam mulia tersebut mengakhiri kuartal kedua tahun 2013 di $1192 per ons, yang merupakan level terendahnya sejak Agustus 2010 dan merupakan tekanannya lebih dari 25 persen dari level pembukaan kuartal tersebut.

Namun, saat pihak Barat melarikan diri dari emas, di sisi lain para pembeli emas mulai bermunculan untuk melestarikan kekayaannya.

Seperti dijelaskan Frank Holmes, chief executive & chief investment officer di U.S. Global Investors, dalam laporan terakhirnya:

“Take a look at the chart below which shows total gold production compared to the gold deliveries on the COMEX and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In May, gold imports into the Asian giant rose to the second-highest level ever.

While mining production is around 1,134 tons so far this year, gold delivery on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 918 tons. This is strikingly in contrast to the gold delivery on the COMEX, which stands at only 103 tons year-to-date as of the end of May.

In fact, this year’s demand is so significant that the physical gold delivered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange through May is almost all of the official gold reserves in China!”

China may be devouring even more of the supply in the future if the price of gold remains subdued.

In yesterday’s episode of The Daily Reckoning, Addison Wiggin gave a preview on how high he expects gold to go given the Fed’s policies and China’s massive buy-up.  Please read it carefully and act accordingly:

“Here we are, nearly every asset class is selling off and the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation are so low they’re in the Fed’s panic zone. It seems like right now, from their standpoint, the playbook isn’t working. What gives?

“There’s an ideal playbook, and it would look something like this:” explains Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, “You’d have higher inflation than we’d have today, but not super high. It might be in the 3-4% range. GDP of maybe 5% — which is pretty high — and then that would bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio so the United States doesn’t look like Greece.”

The result would be a cheaper dollar, which would help exports and get the inflation the Fed wants. “And you’d have negative real interest rates,” he added, “which is to say inflation would be higher than the nominal rate — so let’s say inflation 3.5% and a nominal rate of maybe 2.5%, you’d have 1% negative rates.”

But if we look closely, says Rickards, none of that is happening. There’s no inflation…in fact, the Fed is talking about deflation, which to them is worse. Instead of a weaker dollar, we have a stronger one. Interest rates are rising, but without any inflation, we’re getting positive real rates.

“I don’t think the market correction was really about believing that the Fed would actually ‘taper,’” he continued, “the way they said they’re going to or raising interest rates in 2014, which I don’t think anyone expects, although there was a lot of talk about that.”

Mr. Rickards thinks the Fed is way off the mark about the economy’s health. Bernanke thinks the economy is in much better shape than it really is. “My expectation between now and [the next major Fed meeting in] September,” he told us, “is that as the data come in, it’ll be very clear their forecast is wrong, again. You look at the Fed’s forecasts for the last four years, they were wrong every time, and they were wrong by a lot — meaning why should we believe the forecast now? [See chart nearby.] They’re not going to taper.”

After September, things get even more interesting. After all, Jim reminds us, Bernanke will be a lame duck. That means his last Board of Governors meeting will be in January. “We can’t be certain of this,” Rickards qualified, “but it seems very unlikely that he’s going to do anything dramatic on his way out the door. If Bernanke actually does taper in September, which I don’t expect, it’s going to be a shock to the markets, and we’re going to see more of a drawdown in gold, a drawdown in stocks, etc.”

After we had our fill about the Fed, we pivoted to gold. The People’s Bank of China last revealed its total gold holdings in April 2009 — 1,054 tons — and they could use it as a weapon in the currency wars.

“I don’t know specifically” he said. “I certainly don’t want to pretend I have that date here on my desk.” But he said he expects the Chinese to give an update of their official gold figures at the end of the first quarter in 2014. That date would match with China’s previous announcements.

He confirmed that “they made that announcement in April 2009. The last prior announcement was, I think, five years earlier.” But he told us something more important: “If you’re China, the last thing you want to do is be transparent about your gold purchases, because it will drive the price up.”

So, we wondered, what will make the Chinese reveal their true gold purchases? Mr. Rickards answered simply they’ll do it when they “have enough gold that you don’t need more. In other words, they may want more, they may buy more, but they want to be in a position where they just raise their hand and say to the world, ‘Hey, we’ve got our gold, now we’re a player. Now when the international monetary system collapses and the world has to reconfigure the system, we get a big seat at the table.’”

He compared China’s strategy to a game of Texas hold ‘em. “You want a big pile of chips. The U.S. has a big pile of chips; Europe has a big pile of chips. The U.S. has 8,000 tons of gold, 17 members of the euro system have 10,000 tons. China at 1,000 tons is not a player, but at 5,000 tons, they are a player.”

According to his best information…China is there already. To be clear, no one really knows –except for maybe a member of the Communist Party, says Jim. “But I have spoken to a number of sources in Asia,” he told us, “I’ve spoken to a number of people who are very close to the physical market, I’ve done my own investigations, etc. Every time I have an estimate and try to verify it, what I get back is that I’m wrong on the low side.”


So he expects that come April 2014, China will announce that they own 5,000 tons of gold.

“That should be an earthquake. Because even the gold deniers, the gold doubters, are going to have to sit up and take notice. Either the Chinese are dopes, which they’re not, or people will start to get gold, which I think they will.”

If these scenarios played out, gold would go a lot higher. Jim told us it could go up in a very short span of time, say, 90 days or at the most six months.

“The world of $4,000 gold is the world of $400 oil, $100 silver, higher prices for copper, corn, wheat and everything else,” he continued. “In other words, it’s a world of very high inflation in which the value of your retirement funds and your annuities, etc., have been wiped out.

In that case, there will be winners and losers. As Mr. Rickards explains, the winners will include those that hold gold. “That’s going to be a very small minority. It’s a small minority today. It might get a little bit larger, but that’s not most of the population.”

The losers will be everyone else. “So,” Jim explains, “you’re going to have this resentment, this political resentment, where the vast majority of the people who just sort of took it on the chin are going to be looking at a small number of people who protected themselves, and they’re going to say that’s not fair. And we’ve seen this before. Congress has a way of dealing with it, which is a windfall profits tax.”

He was quick to add that laws like that don’t happen overnight — there’s a legislative process that bogs it down. “Secondly,” he adds, “you should be able to see it coming and maybe pivot out.”

Per Mr. Rickards’ recommendation, “buy your gold at current levels — $1,200, $1,250 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels, $4,000-5,000 an ounce, and then assess the situation. Be nimble. I don’t think you can just write a game plan today and say here’s the plan and just follow it step by step. That’s nonsense. You have to be nimble, you have to be following developments, you have to be prepared to change your mind based on new news.”

Selanjutnya Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com baru-baru ini menulis sebuah artikel bagus yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA mengenai permintaan Cina terhadap emas yang seolah tidak pernah puas, yang berjudul China Radio: “The U.S. And Europe Have Always Suppressed The Rising Price Of Gold”:

“Sometimes, such as after pervasive liquidations in precious metals (or is that AAPL? Has it become clear yet that with widespread “quality” collateral shortages, gold and AAPL stock have become unexpected and almost interchangeable collateral replacements) it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. A forest, in which the New York Fed is procuring (through the open market) the rehypothecated gold that the Bundesbank demanded for repatriation in January; in which JPMorgan’s gold holdings have plunged by 75% since said stunning Bundesbank announcement and hit new record lows on a weekly basis paradoxically just as the price of spot gold keeps sliding ever lower; and in which China is importing unprecedented amounts of gold and adding more and more each month. So let’s do a quick refresh on the forest, shall we.

Here is what we discovered in September 2011, as part of Bradley Manning’s trove of declassified US cables. From Wikileaks:

3. CHINA’S GOLD RESERVES

“China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone”

“The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal (Shijie Xinwenbao) (04/28): “According to China’s National Foreign Exchanges Administration China’s gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold.

They intend to weaken gold’s function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.”

And now for some empirical trees.

While we don’t know how much of the several hundred tons that Jens Weidmann has demanded for delivery from Liberty 33 has already been purchased and/or delivered, we know one thing: since publishing the Wikileaks disclosure China has imported nearly 2,000 tons, and just under 1,500 tons since January 2012…

… and that Chinese gold imports in 2013 continue to surpass those from 2012 “despite” the violent slide in the gold price – almost as if unlike E*trade momentum chasing babies, China buys more the lower the price drops.

In other words, China – pragmatic as always – decided to call the “rising gold price suppression” bluff of the US and Europe and do the only logical thing that takes advantage of an artificially suppressed gold price: buy hand over fist.

As for everyone else selling their (mostly paper) gold over fears that this time, unlike the previous two, Bernanke will actually stop monetizing debt and in the process eliminate all concerns of monetary collapse, China is happy to wave it in (and why not: it is only a matter of time before the taper makes way for the untaper).

Finally, we concluded our previous post looking at recent gold technicals with the following rhetorical question:

Someone more inquisitive than us may wonder: just where is all this gold being “withdrawn” to…

Rhetorical, because we have a very good idea where this gold is going.”

Karena gambar bisa menjelaskan segalanya…

Kadang ada orang yang harus melihat sendiri untuk percaya, dalam hal ini hanya untuk mempercayai betapa besar demand emas di Cina sepanjang kondisi moneter yang relatif stabil.

Jika Anda belum paham dengan apa yang saya katakan, maka silahkan lihat sejumlah gambar dalam artikel Mac Slavo dari www.shtfplan.com berikut ini:

Gold Buying Panic In China: 10,000 People Wait In Line For Their Chance to Own Precious

“One day in the near future Americans will finally realize that their money is being devalued at a rapid pace. For the time being the price increases are somewhat muted by official announcements of inflation being under control at around 2% and purported economic recovery on the horizon. The Federal Reserve and the US government are doing everything in their power to maintain a perception of stability.

But what happens when all the machinations are proven to be fruitless during the next stock market crash and currency crisis?

That’s when people panic. That’s when they start mass selling assets that hold no true value, and shift their capital to physical goods that store and preserve wealth.

In China, where the central government has manipulated the currency, economic and financial markets for decades, the people have seen it all before. And they aren’t taking any chances.

While the paper price of gold and silver may have dropped nearly 25% this year, it’s clear that demand in the real world is soaring.

If you want to know what it’s going to look like in front of precious metals dealers when confidence in our government’s ability to manage this crisis is finally lost for good, then look no further than the streets of China.

The following pictures, taken in Jinan in the last 48 hours, depict some 10,000 Chinese citizens lining up to buy physical gold, providing all the evidence you need for the argument that gold is, in fact, money.

These are absolutely stunning.

Images from Caixin via Zero Hedge

The pictures are reminiscent of Americans lining up around the block during the gold buying sprees of the 1980′s in an attempt to get their hands on physical gold and silver.

Just as is the case with food, guns, ammunition, Xboxes, and iPhones, when widespread demand strikes it’s nearly impossible to get your hands on the goods you need at a fair price.

Get yours now, before the panicked masses realize what has happened.”

Kesimpulan

Daripada fokus pada hal-hal dalam jangka pendek, sebaiknya para investor melihat keuntungan jangka panjang dalam investasi logam mulia. Dalam sebuah wawancara baru-baru ini, Mike Maloney, pendiri sekaligus pemilik GoldSilver.com, salah satu dealer emas terbesar dunia, mengatakan:

“We will soon witness the greatest transfer of wealth ever seen, as countries worldwide realize they need to revert to monetary systems backed by sound money (i.e., the precious metals).  Those acquiring gold and silver beforehand will not only preserve their wealth as existing fiat currencies are extinguished, but will see staggering increases in their purchasing power.”

Emas (dan juga tentunya perak) sering mengalami variasi gerak harga, namun secara keseluruhan meskipun mengalami pergerakan yang bergelombang, pembelian logam mulai akan menjadi vital bagi kesejahteraan investors dan juga kesuksesan di pasar saat ini.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga memperoleh keuntungan hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 24 Juli 2013

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