Home > Emas > Tahan Emas Anda!

Tahan Emas Anda!

“There is probably no better time to consider diversifying one’s portfolio into a depressed asset class like gold when the crowd is optimistic about a vigorous and self-sustaining economic recovery and when the world’s stock markets are at record high prices. Investor sentiment toward gold probably can’t get much worse, and the growing optimism regarding the trajectory of global economic recovery may not get much better in the weeks and months ahead.”

– Doug Kass, founder of Seabreeze Partners Management

“As soon as we get an ‘event’ which demands people own gold in a hurry (think; Cyprus-style bail-in, overt declaration that the Taper is off the table, more QE etc.) the massive outflows in physical gold over the last few months will become apparent and, as hard as gold has fallen, it has fallen predicated purely on an oversupply of paper. A rise driven by a shortage of the physical metal itself will be far more spectacular.”

– Grant Williams

Waktu untuk membeli asuransi terhadap risiko jatuhnya nilai aset non-fisik (paper asset), yang saya anggap sebagai satu alasan yang paling penting untuk memiliki emas (dan juga perak) secara fisik, adalah ketika Anda tidak membutuhkannya, bukan?

Jangan menunggu sampai aset non-fisiknya jatuh lagi sampai 5 atau 10 persen atau akan sulit untuk mendapatkan logam mulia di harga berapapun.

Ya, saya mengambil resiko dengan memproyeksikan harga emas (dan juga perak) akan naik, tetapi tetap mempertimbangkan bahwa akan ada beberapa jeda waktu sebelum harga naik karena dalam jangka pendek segala sesuatu mungkin terjadi.

Jangan lupa bahwa emas telah menjadi store of value selama bertahun-tahun, puluhan tahun dan bahkan berabad-abad. Jadi meskipun terjadi penurunan harga jangka pendek, emas menurut pendapat saya masih baik.

Dalam 6 bulan terakhir ini memang waktu yang sungguh sulit bagi para investor emas, seperti lelucon Brent Johnson dari Santiago Capital, “if adversity builds character, then we gold investors should build a new Disneyland.”

Namun dijelaskannya dalam sebuah presentasi, faktor-faktor penting untuk memiliki emas masih ada dan bahkan, dalam beberapa hal, lebih jelas dari yang pernah ada karena banyak cerita-cerita yang tidak nyata yang miring mengenai emas.

Ada banyak alasan mengapa alokasi ke aset emas masih perlu:

Dalam pandangannya, pasar menilai emas lebih tinggi daripada uang kas.

James G. Rickards, penulis Currency Wars, baru-baru ini menulis sebuah artikel menarik pada website The Daily Reckoning mengenai alasan agar Anda tidak perlu menanti bank-bank sentral untuk mengadopsi gold standard sebelum Anda mengadopsinya.

Jika Anda masih perlu alasan lebih lanjut untuk memiliki emas, maka baca laporan berikut:

Your Personal Gold Standard

“There isn’t a central bank in the world that wants to go back to a gold standard. But that’s not the point. The point is whether they will have to.

I’ve had conversations with several of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents. When you ask them point-blank, “Is there a theoretical limit to the Fed’s balance sheet?” they say no. They say there are policy reasons to make it higher or lower, but that there’s no limit to the amount of money you can print.

That is completely wrong. That’s what they say; that’s how they think; and that’s how they act. But in their heart of hearts, some people at the Fed know it’s wrong. Luckily, people can vote with their feet.

I always tell people who say we’re not on the gold standard that, in a way, we are. You can put yourself on a personal gold standard just by buying gold. In other words, if you think that the value of paper money will be in some jeopardy, or confidence in paper money may be lost, one way to protect yourself is by buying gold, and there’s nothing stopping you.

The typical rejoinder is, “What’s the point of owning gold? They’re just going to confiscate it, like Roosevelt did in 1933?”

I find that extremely unlikely.

In 1933, we’d just come through four years of the Great Depression, and Roosevelt was new in office. People talk about the first hundred days, but he closed the banks right after he was sworn in. And he confiscated gold only a few weeks later.

And it wasn’t as if Elliot Ness was going door to door, breaking into your house and taking gold. They wanted to get a small number of people who had 400-ounce bars in bank vaults. And they got those people because they were able to close the banks and use them as intermediaries to confiscate that gold. But now, it’s far more dispersed, and there’s far less trust in government.

If the government tried to confiscate gold today, there would be various forms of resistance. The government knows this. So they wouldn’t issue that order, because they know it couldn’t be enforced, and it might cause various kinds of civil disobedience or pushback, etc.

As long as you can own gold, you can put yourself on your own gold standard by converting paper money to gold. I recommend you do that to some extent. Not all in, but I recommend having 10% of your investable assets in gold for the conservative investor, and maybe 20% for the aggressive investor — no more than that.

Those are pretty high allocations relative to what people have. Most people own no gold, and all the institutions combined have an allocation to gold of about 1.5%. So even if you take the low end of this range, you’re still nowhere near 10%. In fact, institutions could not double their gold allocation even to 3%. There’s not enough gold in the world — at current prices — to satisfy that demand. So it’s got this huge upside associated with it.

Still, central banks don’t want to go to a gold standard. But if gold is a barbarous relic, if gold has no role in the monetary system, if gold is a “stupid” investment, then why do the Chinese have 5,000 tons? Are they stupid?

If some scenarios play out, you are going to see the price of gold go up… a lot. And it may go up a lot in a very short period of time. It’s not going to go up 10% per year for seven years and the price doubles. It’s going to chug along sideways, maybe in an upward trend, with a lot of volatility.

It will have a kind of a slow grind upward… and then a spike… and then another spike… and then a super-spike. The whole thing could happen in a matter of 90 days — six months at the most.

When that happens, you’re going to have two Americas. You’re going to have an America that was not prepared. Paper savings will be wiped out; 401(k)s will be devalued; pensions, insurance and annuities will be devalued through inflation… Because remember, it’s not just the price of gold going up.

It’s like putting a thermometer in a patient, getting a 104-degree temperature and blaming the thermometer. The thermometer’s not to blame; it’s just telling you what’s going on. Likewise, the price of gold is not an economic object or aim in itself; it’s a price signal. It tells you what’s going on in the economy. And gold at the levels I’m talking about would mean that you’ve now verged into hyperinflation, or something close to it, because nothing happens in isolation.

At that point, you have to give more credence to gold. Now you’ve crossed the threshold. The minute you think of gold and paper money side by side, or having some relationship, you get to these price levels of $7,000-8,000 an ounce. They’re not made up. They’re not there to be provocative. They’re actually the math. Those are the numbers you get when you simply divide the money supply by the amount of gold in the market.

People are going to have to pay attention to that. And either the Chinese are dopes — which they’re not — or people will start to get gold, which they will.

But if there’s a run on paper currencies (which is entirely possible) and there’s borderline hyperinflation (which is entirely possible), they may have to go to a gold standard… Not because they want to, but because they find it necessary to calm the markets.

I suggest you buy your gold at current levels — $1,200, $1,250 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels ($4,000-5,000 an ounce) and then assess the situation. Be nimble. You can’t just write a game plan today and follow it step by step. That’s nonsense. You have to be nimble; you have to be following developments; you have to be prepared to change your mind based on new news.”

Yang berikut yang tak kalah penting, sebuah laporan terbaru dari para analis Incrementum AG di Liechtenstein yang mengatakan bahwa ada sejumlah alasan bagus untuk bersentimen bullish terhadap emas.

Namun, laporan yang berjudul In GOLD we TRUST 2013,” tersebut memberikan target tahunan emas di level $1480 dan target jangka panjang di $2230.

“Even though the consensus is convinced that the gold bull market has ended, we remain firmly of the opinion that the fundamental argument in favor of gold remains intact,” the 53-page report stated.

The report also said there are no precedents for the current climate of central bank intervention and noted there have been more than 500 interest rate cuts worldwide since 2008.

That makes the need for gold as “monetary insurance” that much more important and will, in turn, push gold prices upward.

“Never before have such enormous monetary policy experiments taken place on a global basis,” the report conclusively said.  “If ever there was a need for monetary insurance, it is today.”

The report further spells out 7 reasons to be bullish on gold:

  • For the first time, the annual “In Gold We Trust” report – now in its seventh year – included a quantitative evaluation of gold with a wide range of scenarios for U.S. monetary policy. Even weighing factors that could lower the price of gold, the report arrived at the long-term target of $2,230.

  • Negative real interest rates are still anticipated for the time being. Amid current financial woes, the report predicted the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all will continue to keep interest rates at a low level. And historically there’s been a strong link between negative real interest rates and gold prices.
  • “Gold is the only liquid investment asset that neither involves a liability nor a creditor relationship,” the report stated, calling gold the “only international means of payment independent of governments” and noting it has survived every war and national bankruptcy.

  • Unlike the gold market in 1979-1980, when the metal’s price soared, it’s unlikely the current bull market will end as a result of a major increase in interest rates, given the fact that governments, corporations and households are saddled with heavy debt.

  • The gold mining industry is undergoing changes to its priorities to put profitability, disciplined capital deployment and stable cash flow per ounce of gold over maximizing gold production. “We believe that the new commitment to transparent cost reporting, greater financial discipline and shareholder value is a crucial – if quite late in coming – insight by the sector,” the report said. And what of gold mining stocks? The report called them the “ultimate contrarian play.”

  • Skepticism, fear and panic are “never observable at the end of a long-term bull market,” said the report. Currently, the report said, “We see anything but euphoria in gold.”

  • A “bottoming process” on gold prices will soon begin, and there’s likely to be “very little” momentum before August. After that, gold prices should begin to rise.

What Do the Charts Say?

Pada 18 Juli lalu, analis terkemuka Citi, Tom Fitzpatrick, menulis laporan yang juga menarik mengenai emas, yang menurutnya harganya akan mengalami kenaikan besar dari levelnya kini.

Berikut yang dikatakannya disertai dengan 2 grafik menarik:

“Gold is really now looking like it is set to make a move higher.  Gold had these initial support levels which the down-move had taken gold to, but gold has now pushed back above those important areas.

We would like to see a weekly close above this $1,322 area, which represents the lows we had in the April down-move.  That weekly close will open up the gold market for continued upside.  The next target after that would be to continue to rally and retest what was the impulsive breakdown at the $1,522 zone, which would represent roughly another $180 on the upside for gold (see chart above).”

We are increasingly of the view that gold has bottomed.  We have always viewed the down-move in gold as a correction, albeit a severe one, but a correction nonetheless.  This will now provide the platform for the metal to push higher in its secular bull market.

For what it is worth, there is an interesting correlation to what we are seeing today in the gold market and what happened at the bottom in gold in 1976.  4 weeks after the low was posted in gold in August of 1976, the equity market rally peaked with a marginal new high as gold closed that week 14% off the correction low.  The low so far in gold was posed 4 weeks ago.

In addition, the equity market has posted a new high this week, and a price 14% off the low would put gold at $1,345.  In this 4 week period the equity market has rallied 7% so far, or about half what the gold price has done.  This is very similar to 1976 where the equity market bounced 6% to marginal new highs before turning.  This is just more evidence to us that the bottom is most likely in for the gold market.”

Nevertheless, there was a note of caution from Greg Guenthner at The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening, which according to me, we should keep in mind when trading the gold market:

“Now, we’re looking at gold’s first significant oversold bounce since it started crashing in April. Extremely bearish sentiment worked in gold’s favor, producing a nice short squeeze that propelled the spot price above resistance.

So where will the metal go from here?

The next important resistance level I’m seeing is in the $1,340-$1,350 range. Remember, until it proves otherwise, gold is still in middle of a countertrend rally. The overall trend is down. That doesn’t mean a move much higher isn’t possible – but there remains plenty of resistance to clear before gold can get back on track.

If you’re playing the countertrend move, don’t take anything for granted. Keep your stops tight and one eye on key resistance levels.”

Kesimpulan

Dalam tulisannya yang berjudul Gold – Has The ‘Narrative’ Failed?,” Pater Tenebrarum melalui Acting-Man blog memberikan ringkasan bagus mengenai perkembangan pasar emas saat ini:

“The current monetary system essentially faces two possibilities: either there will be massive deleveraging on a scale never before seen (commensurate to the build-up of the debt overhang), or it will continue to inflate. Guess what: massive deleveraging is simply politically intolerable. It can perhaps be forced on a few hapless smaller victims like Greece and Portugal, but no-one can force it on, say, France or the US. On the contrary, the current orthodoxy of central banking has one, and only one, solution for the dilemma: print more money.

As long as this is the case, we can expect the fundamental drivers of the long term gold bull market to remain intact. This time, no Volcker will ride to the rescue either. What he did simply can no longer be done. If you want to know why, compare the stock of debt of 1979 (approx. 150% of GDP) to that of today (approx. 360% of GDP).

One day we may even get to see those parts of the ‘narrative’ play out that Mr. Ritholtz deems to be an impossibility, namely the collapse of the current monetary system. Contrary to what one may think, it would not be a big deal historically speaking. Currency systems have imploded throughout history, and the current one is a prime candidate for that fate, given that it is entirely based on a mixture of faith and coercion. We certainly don’t believe that eventuality to be imminent, but we think it is almost inevitable in the long run.

However, let us once again stress: this has no relevance to the secular gold bull market’s likely progression over the next few years. We happen to believe that gold’s price will eventually rise to levels that would be considered absurd today. When gold was ‘cut loose’ from the dollar in 1971 at $35 per ounce, a price of $850 looked like an absurdity as well, and yet it eventually happened.

Of course, right now, a cyclical bear market is underway, so let us not get carried away here. As noted above, we cannot be sure to what extent the tree will need to be shaken before the bull market resumes, but we do feel quite confident that the long term bullish case remains perfectly intact.”

Agar tetap ceria, berikut  sebuah gambar lucu mengenai anjing:

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Dibuat Tanggal 25 Juli 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:
  1. No comments yet.