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Sistem Perbankan Eropa Masih Rapuh

September 30th, 2013 No comments

“We have not reached this painful conclusion without careful research. We have had a series of meetings in Paris with money managers, central bankers, investors, and academics. All of our meetings here were private. In the candor of those private discussions, we come away with the most troubled view we have had of the Euro zone, the experiment in this single-currency block, and the market structures in Europe. This is a place in trouble. Courses of action that evidence more flailing than forethought are not making things any better.”

– David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors

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“Prepare for the unknown by studying how others in the past have coped with the unforeseeable and the unpredictable.”

– Gen. George S. Patton

Menteri keuangan Eropa belum lama ini sepakat untuk menggunakan metode “bail-in” sebagai prosedur standar untuk menyelamatkan bank yang terlalu rentan untuk bangkrut.  Berikut penjelasannya dari CNN:

European Union finance ministers approved a plan Thursday for dealing with future bank bailouts, forcing bondholders and shareholders to take the hit for bank rescues ahead of taxpayers.

The new framework requires bondholders, shareholders and large depositors with over 100,000 Euros to be first to suffer losses when banks fail. Depositors with less than 100,000 Euros will be protected. Taxpayer funds would be used only as a last resort.

Artinya jika Anda memiliki simpanan lebih dari 100 ribu euro di salah satu bank Eropa, maka Anda beresiko kehilangan simpanan Anda tersebut  jika suatu saat bank yang bersangkutan bangkrut.

Kenapa mereka melakukan itu?

Apakah ini karena asumsi mereka bahwa sistem perbankan akan aman kembali atau karena fakta bahwa tidak ada persoalan perbankan 2008 yang terpecahkan?

Ty Andros, penulis harian TedBits, menjelaskan dengan baik dalam artikelnya terntang The Specter of Things to Come:

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“The average bank asset to GDP ratio in Europe is approximately 375% of GDP.

Switzerland is not included but its bank asset to GDP ratio is over 700% and according to the ECB Luxembourg is 22 times GDP.  If those assets are written down by 20% (those assets are worth FAR LESS) you are still looking at a CUMULATIVE $14 trillion dollar price tag MINIMUM.  The number does not include European sovereign debt which is the elephant in the room as most WILL NEVER BE REPAID but sovereign governments let the banks hold it as RISK FREE.  LOL

“Most Europeans, even today, probably would be better off if over-indebted governments were allowed to default in accordance with the relevant bankruptcy precepts. But it can’t happen in societies so trained to look to politicians to overrule the laws of arithmetic and economics whenever those laws are inconvenient.”

- Holman Jenkins, wsj.com

The losses yet to be allocated or PRINTED AWAY by the TROIKA for the European banking systems is probably north of $30 trillion as the numbers above do not reflect off balance sheet and shadow banking activities.  A lot of those bank assets are SOVEREIGN BOMBS…er…BONDS and are UNPAYABLE and inextinguishable although they are sitting on the BANK balance sheets as RISK FREE.  HA, ha!

MONETARY monopolists who printed the MONEY out of THIN AIR and LENT IT OUT.  The idea that these central bankers, sovereign governments and the IMF can’t take a loss is a FICTION!  There is no loss when the money lent was created out of thin air!

Look at little IRELAND whose citizens and their descendants are in a perpetual debt slavery to OFFICIAL (banksters of the TROIKA) bondholders as a result of a TROIKA rescue.  Once again money printed out of thin air with the obligations sent to the public to SAVE THEM.

As Rahm Emanuel said: never let a crisis go to waste.  Think about the IRISH rescue, a panic was created and the debt slave noose was fitted a la Cypress today!

The Germans, Austrians and Dutch citizens are now saying NO to borrowing money to bailout BANKSTERS and creating PERPETUAL generations of debt slaves out of themselves and their children.  These people are practicing SELF defense by refusing to participate FURTHER.  BRAVO!!  This represents an impending acceleration of the Global financial crisis in EUROPE!

Any COMPETENT and self-respecting CFO, CEO, Family office, high net worth individuals, institutional investor, small businessman, retiree, etc. inside the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) that is not moving or planning to move excess funds out of insolvent banks is insane.  No matter what the EU and ECB say…

The ECB Target 2 system is still up and running, when it crumbles and it will, capital controls will descend in a HEARTBEAT.

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Remember, Germany is on the hook for almost $1 trillion Euros of lending to PIIGS central banks through the target 2 system.  They will see this money back only in their dreams, the money is gone and the economies which must PAY IT BACK are COLLAPSING under Troika demands creating future crises to exploit.  The ONLY thing that will stop this from gathering the big MOMENTUM is the OUTRIGHT MONEY PRINTING in the form of MORE DEBT.”

Selanjutnya adalah Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang sering membahas tentang masih adanya permasalahan pada sektor perbankan Eropa.

Berikut adalah 2 laporannya yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, yang mungkin akan mengejutkan Anda yang belum menyadari adanya persoalan besar yang akan dihadapi perbankan Eropa:

1)   Deutsche Bank “Is Horribly Undercapitalized… It’s Ridiculous” Says Former Fed President Hoenig (June 15th)

Back in May 2012, when we were making fun at the latest iteration of the now fatally discredited European stress tests, we took the first of many jabs at what may currently be the world’s most systematically important, and undercapitalized, bank in the world:

Finally, if anyone is still confused where the pain is headed next, here is a list from Morgan Stanley of all Euro banks with a Core Tier 1 ratio that is so low, that the banks will soon regret not raising more capital in the period of calm that the ECB’s LTRO bought them.

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Also, one bank is missing from the list above: Deutsche Bank. CT1/TA: 1.68%. Oops.

That’s right – Deutsche Bank was so bad that it wasn’t even allowed to appear on a screen of Europe’s most undercapitalized banks – and we helpfully pointed out its true capital ratio of just under 2%, and an implied leverage of 60x!

Fast forward 13 months to a Reuters interview with former Kansas City Fed president and FOMC dissenter and sole voice of reason at the Federal Reserve, and current FDIC Vice Chairman Tom Hoenig, who confirmed that once again Zero Hedge was just a year ahead of the curve.

A top U.S. banking regulator called Deutsche Bank’s capital levels “horrible” and said it is the worst on a list of global banks based on one measurement of leverage ratios. “It’s horrible, I mean they’re horribly undercapitalized,” said Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig in an interview. “They have no margin of error.”  Deutsche’s leverage ratio stood at 1.63 percent, according to Hoenig’s numbers, which are based on European IFRS accounting rules as of the end of 2012.

In other words, the slightest systemic shock in Europe and Deutsche Bank gets it. And as Deutsche Bank goes, so does Germany, so does Europe, so does the world.

Immediately confirming Hoenig’s (and Zero Hedge’s) observations, was Deutsche’s prompt repeat that “all is well” and that “these numbers” are not like “those numbers.”

“To say that we are undercapitalized is inaccurate because if you look at the Basel framework, we’re now one of the best capitalized banks in the world after our capital raise,” Deutsche Bank’s Chief Financial Officer Stefan Krause told Reuters in an interview, when asked about Hoenig’s comments. “To suggest that leverage puts us in a position to be a risk to the system is incorrect,” Krause said, calling the gauge a “misleading measure” when used on its own.

Of course, DB’s lies are perfectly expected – after all it is a question of fiath. So let’s go back to Hoenig who continues to be one of the few voices of reason among the “very serious people”:

Hoenig pointed to the gain in Deutsche Bank shares in January on the same day it posted a big quarterly loss, because it had improved its Basel III capital ratios by cutting risk-weighted assets.

My other example with poor Deutsche Bank is that they lose $2 billion and raise their capital ratio. It’s – I don’t want to say insane, but it’s ridiculous,” Hoenig said.

A leverage ratio is a better method to show a firm’s ability to absorb sudden losses, Hoenig says, and he has floated a plan to raise the ratio to 10 percent. He said the 3 percent leverage hurdle under Basel was a “pretend number.”

Opponents of using such a ratio say that it ignores the risk in a bank’s loan books, and can make a bank with only healthy borrowers look equally risky as a bank whose clients are less likely to pay back their loans. It also fails to take into account how easily a bank can sell its assets – so-called liquidity – or whether it is hedged against risk.

Still, equity analysts said that while Deutsche Bank likely will meet regulatory capital requirements, its ratios look weak.

      Ugh: terminology, ratios, and numbers. It’s gives a chap the belly-ache.

But just as we were about a year ahead with our warning of DB’s “off the charts” leverage, so we wish to remind readers that some time around June 2014, the topic of Deutsche Bank’s $72.8 trillion in derivatives, or about 21 times more than the GDP of Germany, will be the recurring news headline du jour.

Recall from April: “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World (Hint: Not JPMorgan)” which for those who missed it, we urge rereading:

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2)   Euro zone Funding Shortfall Rises To Over $4 Trillion, Increases By More Than $500 Billion In A Year (August 11th)

Back in April 2012, Zero Hedge pointed out something rather disturbing for the European banking sector and defenders of the European monetary myth: the “aggregate shortfall of required stable funding Is €2.78 trillion” which was the number estimated by the BIS’ Basel III rules needed to return to some semblance of balance sheet stability in Europe. More importantly, this was a number so big, it was obvious that there was only one way to deal with it: cover it up deeply under the rug and pray it never reemerged.

What happened next was inevitable: Basel III’s implementation was delayed as there was no way Europe’s banks could satisfy their deleveraging requirements, while the actual capital shortfall hole became bigger and bigger. Today, 16 months later, the FT discovers what Zero Hedge readers knew long ago in “Euro zone banks need to shed €3.2tn in assets to meet Basel III.” In other words, not only has Europe not fixed anything in the past year, but the liquidity tsunami injected by the central banks merely taped over the epic capital shortfall that just got epic-er, increasing from €2.8 trillion to €3.2 trillion, an increase of half a trillion to over $4 trillion in one short year.

Sadly, just like back in April 2012, so now, Europe has no hope of actually addressing this much needed deleveraging and so the can kicking will continue until the number rises to $5 trillion, $6, $7 etc until one day the market’s “head in the sand” strategy finally fails and every emperor around the world is found to be naked.

      From the FT:

Europe’s biggest banks will have to cut €661bn of assets and generate €47bn of fresh capital over the next five years to comply with forthcoming regulations aimed at reducing the likelihood of another taxpayer funded bailout.

The figures form part of an analysis by the UK’s Royal Bank of Scotland – which singles out Deutsche Bank, Crédit Agricole and Barclays as the banks most in need of fresh capital – highlighting that five years on since the financial crisis, Europe’s banks are still “too big to fail”.

Overall, the region’s banks need to shed €3.2tn in assets by 2018 to comply with Basel III regulations on capital and leverage, according to RBS.

The burden is greatest on smaller banks, which need to shed €2.6tn from their balance sheets, raising fears that lending to the region’s small and medium size enterprises will be sharply reduced as a result.

“There is too much debt still across Europe’s economies and the manifestation of that is on bank balance sheets,” said James Chappell, an analyst at Berenberg bank. “The major issue is that the banks still don’t have enough capital to write down those loans.”

Euro zone banks have already shrunk their balance sheets by €2.9tn since May 2012 – by renewing fewer loans, repurchase and derivatives contracts and selling non-core businesses – according to data from the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank.

Deutsche Bank recently said it would seek to cut its assets by about a fifth over the next two and a half years. Barclays, which announced a £5.8bn rights issue last month, said it wants to shrink its balance sheet by £65bn-£80bn.

Europe’s banking sector assets are worth €32tn, or more than three times the single currency zone’s annual gross domestic product. (all emphasis mine)

Of course, if Europe’s banking sector actually does take its deleveraging obligations seriously, what will happen to Europe’s economy, where private sector loan creation is already at a record low level, will be nothing short of a stunning contraction, unlike anything seen in the past 5 years. And yet, that is precisely the path Europe must take in order to emerge on the other side with a healthy beating financial heart. That it won’t is a given because doing the right thing would mean a complete wipe out for the banker oligarchy. And, as always, it will be the common man who will suffer when the forced deleveraging day finally comes.

Kesimpulan

Jadi bagaimana kesimpulannya?

Kesimpulannya adalah bahwa Uni Eropa nampaknya akan mengincar uang Anda sebagai salah satu cara untuk mengatasi persoalan jika terjadi kebangkrutan di sektor perbankannya ke depan.

Oleh karenanya, sudah tidak ada tempat yang benar-benar ‘aman’ untuk menyimpang uang.

Jika Anda tidak mewaspadai hal ini dan terus menyimpan seluruh kekayaan Anda di satu tempat, JANGAN menyesal jika suatu waktu Anda mengalami kehilangan.

Sebagai contoh bahwa tidak semuanya baik di dunia perbankan, kembali Tyler Durden dari Zero Hedge Senin lalu melaporkan bahwa program “bail-in” juga akan dimulai di sebuah bank tertua di Italia:

It Begins: Monte Paschi “Bails In” Bondholders,

Halts $650 Million In Coupon Payments

Recall that three weeks ago we warned that “Monte Paschi Faces Bail-In As Capital Needs Point To Nationalization” although we left open the question of “who will get the haircut including senior bondholders and depositors…. given the small size of sub-debt in the capital structures.” Today, as many expected on the day following the German elections, the dominos are finally starting to wobble, and as we predicted, Monte Paschi, Italy’s oldest and according to many, most insolvent bank, quietly commenced a bondholder “bail in” after it said that it suspended interest payments on three hybrid notes following demands by European authorities that bondholders contribute to the restructuring of the bailed out Italian lender. Remember what Diesel-BOOM said about Cyprus – that it is a template? He wasn’t joking.

As Bloomberg reports, Monte Paschi “said in a statement that it won’t pay interest on about 481 million Euros ($650 million) of outstanding hybrid notes issued through MPS Capital Trust II and Antonveneta Capital Trusts I and II.” Why these notes? Because hybrid bondholders have zero protections and zero recourse. “Under the terms of the undated notes, the Siena, Italy-based lender is allowed to suspend interest without defaulting and doesn’t have to make up the missed coupons when payments resume.” Then again hybrids, to quote the Dutchman, are just the template for the balance of the bank’s balance sheet.

Why is this happening now? Simple: the Merkel reelection is in the bag, and the EURUSD is too high (recall Adidas’ laments from last week). Furthermore, if the ECB proceeds with another LTRO as many believe it will, it will force the EURUSD even higher, surging from even more unwanted liquidity. So what to do? Why stage a small, contained crisis of course. Such as a bail in by a major Italian bank. The good news for now is that depositors are untouched.

Unfortunately, with depositor cash on the wrong end of the (un)secured liability continuum it is only a matter of time before those with uninsured deposits share some of the Cypriot pain. After all, in the brave New Normal insolvent world, “it is only fair.”

To wit:

In the new world we’re in, bondholders pick up the tab when they can be forced to,” said John Raymond, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in London. “State aid rules impose losses where possible.”

European Union Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia told reporters on Sept. 7 the bank should receive final approval for its restructuring plan within two months. The lender, which received a 4.1 billion-euro bailout, submitted a revised plan that more than doubles the amount of new capital it intends to raise to 2.5 billion Euros as it seeks to repay the aid.

Almunia recommended that “cash outflows from the beneficiary to hybrid capital holders and subordinated debt holders be prevented to the maximum extent possible,” in a letter sent to Italian Finance Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni dated July 16 and seen by Bloomberg News.

More importantly, this is just the start:

Monte Paschi’s 108 million Euros of undated, non-cumulative trust preferred stock issued through Antonveneta Capital Trust II fell 5 cents on the euro to 41 cents, according to Bloomberg bond prices. That’s the lowest price since April 23, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While the bank is halting payments on the bonds that make up its Tier 1 capital, the most-junior layer of debt capital instruments, it also has the equivalent of about 2.6 billion Euros of more-senior Upper Tier 2 debt in three issues in Euros and pounds.

While Monte Paschi is making payments on these notes, it isn’t clear that it will be able to go on doing so, said Raymond.

Expect an update from the bank on Wednesday when it will hold a conference call. 

Investors may be betting the bank will buy back the debt “at or slightly below current trading levels,” according to Eva Olsson, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in London. Individual investors in Italy hold many of the bonds and have been an important source of funds for banks in recent years, she said.

“Monte likely will have to raise capital next year and we view any capital raising exercise in the market as challenging,” Olsson wrote.

Indeed, and best of luck.

Agar terus semangat, berikut ada 2 gambar dari William Banzai, yang memiliki judul sarkastik: “EuRo MeA CuLPa PhaSe…

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A functioning police state needs no police–William Burroughs 

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 27 September 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Yellen Sebagai Pimpinan The Fed AS…?

September 30th, 2013 No comments

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Setelah Larry Summers mengundurkan diri dari pencalonan kursi tertinggi the Fed AS, kini fokus tertuju pada mantan presiden the Fed wilayah San Fransisco, untuk itu mungkin ini kesempatan untuk mengingat kembali kemampuan Janet Yellen memproyeksikan krisis finansial besar yang hampir 2 pekan lalu telah berusia 5 tahun.

Atau mungkin juga kekurangannya, karena menurut kutipan di bawah ini dari sebuah pertemuan FCIC 2010, yang pertama kali diberitakan oleh New York Times, menunjukkan jika Yellen merupakan pengganti Bernanke maka kita mungkin akan segera menuju krisis finansial besar tahap ke-2.

Ms. Yellen told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in 2010 that she and other San Francisco Fed officials pressed Washington for new guidance, sharing the problems they were seeing. But Ms. Yellen did not raise those concerns publicly, and she said that she had not explored the San Francisco Fed’s ability to act unilaterally, taking the view that it had to do what Washington said.

“For my own part,” Ms. Yellen said, “I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.’s — I didn’t see any of that coming until it happened.” Her startled interviewers noted that almost none of the officials who testified had offered a similar acknowledgment of an almost universal failure.

And that is the opinion of the person that the investing community is largely convinced will be the new head of the Federal Reserve. But, at least she is honest. This, however, does not explain why the second time around her only solution to the first crisis that she failed to foresee completely… is doing more of the same.

Orang yang tidak terlalu antusias pada penggantian Ben Bernanke sebagai pemimpin bank sentral AS adalah Michael Snyder dari The Economic Collapse blog, yang pernah menyatakan bahwa Yellen sungguh merupakan pilihan yang mengerikan sebagai pemimpin the Fed AS.

Berikut adalah artikel yang WAJIB DIBACA, yang berjudul Are You Ready For Yellenomics?:

“Are you ready for Janet Yellen?  Wall Street wants her, the mainstream media wants her and it appears that her confirmation would be a slam dunk.  She would be the first woman ever to chair the Federal Reserve, and her philosophy is that a little bit of inflation is actually good for an economy.  She was reportedly the architect for many of the unprecedented monetary decisions that Ben Bernanke made during his tenure, and that has many on Wall Street and in the media very excited.  Noting that we “already know that Yellen is on board with Bernanke’s easy money policies”, CNN recently even went so far as to publish a rabidly pro-Yellen article with this stunning headline: “Dear Mr. President: Name Yellen now!” 

But after watching what a disaster Bernanke has been, do we really want more of the same?  It doesn’t really matter whether she is a woman, a man, a giant lizard or a robot, the question is whether or not she is going to continue to take us down the path to ruin that Bernanke has taken us.  As I have written about so many times, the Federal Reserve is at the very heart of our economic problems, and under Bernanke the Fed has created a mammoth financial bubble unlike anything that we have ever seen before.  If Yellen keeps us going down that road, financial disaster is inevitable.

Sadly, Yellen is not a woman that believes in free markets.  She had the following to say back in 1999

“Will capitalist economies operate at full employment in the absence of routine intervention? Certainly not.”

Yellen believes that without the “routine intervention” of the central planners at the Fed, our economy will not produce satisfactory results.

So if you thought that Bernanke was an “interventionist”, you haven’t seen anything yet.  In fact, according to Time Magazine, Yellen was continually urging Bernanke to do even more “to help stimulate the economy”…

But as the most recent financial crisis proved, a good Fed chief needs to be willing to think outside the box to achieve its goals of low, steady inflation and full employment. This is exactly what Bernanke did — using the powers of his office to launch a massive bond-buying program aimed at lowering interest rates further down the yield curve and promising to keep short-term interest rates at near zero for years. Bernanke, however, didn’t launch these programs immediately. Behind the scenes, it was reportedly Yellen who was the most forceful advocate for the Fed doing more to help stimulate the economy.

It is truly frightening to think that Yellen might turn out to be “Bernanke on steroids”.

Let’s hope that she is not the choice.

But the media is endlessly hyping her.  They keep proclaiming that she has a “good track record” when it comes to forecasting future economic conditions.

Oh really?

Back in February 2007, before the housing crash and the last financial crisis, she made the following statement…

“The bottom line for housing is that the concerns we used to hear about the possibility of a devastating collapse—one that might be big enough to cause a recession in the U.S. economy—while not fully allayed have diminished. Moreover, while the future for housing activity remains uncertain, I think there is a reasonable chance that housing is in the process of stabilizing, which would mean that it would put a considerably smaller drag on the economy going forward.”

And during a speech in December 2007 she offered up this gem…

“To sum up the story on the outlook for real GDP growth, my own view is that, under appropriate monetary policy, the economy is still likely to achieve a relatively smooth adjustment path, with real GDP growth gradually returning to its roughly 2½ percent trend over the next year or so, and the unemployment rate rising only very gradually to just above its 4¾ percent sustainable level.”

So if she didn’t see the last crisis coming, will she see the next one coming?

Right now, she insists that everything is going to be just fine in our immediate future.

Do you believe her?

Meanwhile, economic warning flags are popping up all over the place.  As Zero Hedge recently noted, perhaps this is why a lot of high profile candidates don’t want the Fed job.  Perhaps they don’t want to be blamed for the giant economic mess that is about to happen…

With so many candidates dropping out of the race, one has to wonder why the attraction of the ‘most-powerful’ job in the world is fading. Perhaps it does not want to be stuck between the rock of the ‘broken-market-diminishing-returns’ of moar QE and the hard place of an economy/market that is sputtering and needs moar. As Bloomberg’s Rich Yamarone notes, There’s a little known rule of thumb in the economics world: when the annual growth rate of key U.S. indicators falls below 2 percent, the economy slides into recession in the next 12 months… and more than one of them is flashing red.

But we have far bigger worries on our hands than just another recession.

Over the past several years, Fed intervention has been systematically destroying confidence in the U.S. dollar and has been making U.S. government debt less desirable.  Foreigners are already starting to dump U.S. debt, and it is only a matter of time before the U.S. dollar loses its status as the de facto reserve currency of the world.

By “kicking the can down the road”, the Fed has created tremendous structural problems which are going to come back to bite us big time in the long run.

Recklessly printing money, monetizing debt and driving interest rates down to ridiculously low levels may have had some benefits in the short-term, but in the end this giant Ponzi scheme is going to collapse in spectacular fashion.  The following is how James Howard Kunstler puts it…

The Fed can only pretend to try to get out of this self-created hell-hole. The stock market is a proxy for the economy and a handful of giant banks are proxies for the American public, and all they’ve really got going is a hideous high-frequency churn of trades in conjectural debentures that pretend to represent something hidden in the caboose of a choo-choo train of wished-for value — and hardly anyone in the nation, including those with multiple graduate degrees in abstruse crypto-sciences, can even pretend to understand it all.

When reality crosses the finish line ahead of poor, exhausted Mr. Bernanke, havoc must ensue. All the artificial props fall away and the so-called American economy is revealed for what it is: a surreal landscape of ruin with nothing left but salvage value. Very few people will get a living off of the salvage operations, and there will be fights and skirmishes everywhere by one gang or another for control of the pickings. The utility of money itself may be bygone, along with the legitimacy of anyone or anything claiming institutional authority. This is what comes of all attempts to get something for nothing.

The American people deserve to know the truth.

The Fed is not our “savior”.  The truth is that the Fed is the primary cause of many of our biggest economic problems.  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled “25 Fast Facts About The Federal Reserve – Please Share With Everyone You Know“.

Unfortunately, Wall Street and the mainstream media love the Fed and they appear to very much love Janet Yellen.

Yellen would be an absolutely horrifying choice for Fed Chairman, but so would any of the other names that have been floated.

America has embraced the foolishness of the financial central planners at the Federal Reserve, and in the end we will all pay a great price for that.

Selanjutnya Mish dari Global Economic Analysis belum lama ini berusaha menjawab apakah Yellen lebih baik dari Larry Summers dalam sebuah laporan singkat di bawah ini:

“The criticism of Summers is justified, but will Yellen be any better?
I suggest the answer is a resounding no. She is more dovish than Bernanke, and that is saying quite a lot.
Let’s compare …
Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee; Does Janet Yellen Have What It Takes?
In Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee; Does Janet Yellen Have What It Takes? I stated …

The Detractors Win
The detractors win both sides. Neither Yellen nor Summers is qualified. In fact, there is not a single person who would take the job that is qualified. There should not be a Fed at all.
The idea that a group of economic wonks can sit down and micromanage the economy to health is preposterous. Central bank clowns have proven time and time again they have no idea what the interest rate should be.
A massive bubble in dotcom stocks followed by a massive bubble in housing is proof enough. And this Fed on which Yellen sits has triggered asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and she cannot even see it.

Crisis Management Needed
Curiously, lots of analyses suggest we do not need Larry Summers because there is not going to be another crisis.
Rest assured there will be another crisis, and much sooner than most think. But that does not make Summers qualified. His role is to help create crises, not stop them.

Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee

The only candidate that makes sense is the candidate who will set a target date to end the Fed. Unfortunately, no such candidate is on the short list.

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The choice is between Tweedle-Dee who rates to slosh money around even more than Bernanke in a futile effort to create jobs, and Tweedle-Dum who will do whatever Wall Street wants.

Practically speaking, is there really a difference?

Yellen 100% Assured to Make a Mess

Yellen is 100% assured to make a mess of things. So would Summers. But Summers has one thing over Yellen: He is smart enough to not want the job.

I might point out there was some small chance that Summers would be more fiscally responsible than Yellen. We will never know because “Yellen it is”.”

Kesimpulan

Menurut Ben Hunt, Ph.D., persepsi yang ragu-ragu dan membingungkan dari the Fed akan cenderung lebih meningkat pada pergantian pimpinan bank sentral AS tersebut nanti.

Menurutnya Yellen TIDAK cocok sebagai kandidat dan menjelaskan bagaimana implikasi investasinya seperti di bawah ini:

“If strength of will and resolve of purpose is the quality you need to project, then the Fed needs a Strongman on a Horse:

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not a Wise Oracle Baking Cookies.

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Sorry, but it’s true.

I mean, does anyone doubt that Janet Yellen is a consensus builder who would feel more at home at a faculty tea with Elizabeth Warren than a come-to-Jesus talk with Zhou Xiao chuan? Does anyone doubt that Larry Summers is the polar opposite, a bureaucratic Napoleon who would absolutely revel in lowering the boom on Zhou or Tombini … or Bullard or Yellen, for that matter? But it looks like Yellen is the shoo- in candidate, so whatever perceptions of Fed wishy-washiness and indecision that are currently incubating are likely to grow, no matter how unfair those perceptions might be.

What does all this mean for how to invest in the short to medium-term? Frankly, I don’t think that “investment” is possible over the next few months, at least not as the term is usually understood, and at least not in public markets. When you listen to institutional investors and the bulge-bracket sell-side firms that serve them, everything today is couched in terms of “positioning”, not “investment”, and as a result that’s the Common Knowledge environment we all must suffer through. This is the fundamental behavioral shift in markets created by a Fed-centric universe – the best one can hope for is a modicum of protection from the caprice of the Mad God, and efforts to find some investable theme are dashed more often than they are rewarded. The Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence – that all market outcomes are determined by monetary policy, especially Fed policy – is stronger than ever today, so if you’re looking to take an exposure based on the idiosyncratic attributes or fundamentals of a publicly traded company … well, I hope you have a long time horizon and very little sensitivity to the price path in the meantime. I will say, though, that the counter-narrative of the Fed as Incompetent Magician, which is clearly growing in strength right alongside the Omnipotence Narrative, makes gold a much more attractive option than this time a year ago.”

Di akhir laporan, agar Anda tetap ceria, berikut sebuah gambar lucu dari William Banzai:

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 26 September 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Bagaimana Nasib Dollar AS Setelah Stimulus Terus Berlanjut?

September 26th, 2013 No comments

“… you have these people that are running around and have been calling for the dollar to collapse all because the Fed increased the money supply and all this other nonsense; but they fail to understand that there are two sides to every coin. Yes, we had a tremendous crisis coming out of ’07 – the Fed pumped in $700 billion – but you also have to take into consideration how much was lost. That’s why you didn’t see any inflation, and you’re not really going to. Also, because, the dollar is really the only currency in the world you’re going to use… there is no alternative at this point.”

– Martin Armstrong, creator of the widely-cited Economic Confidence Model

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Laporan hari ini masih singkat namun padat, mengenai perkembangan terkini indeks dolar AS dan sebuah pembahasan salah satu currency pair favorit saya yang menarik untuk dilihat sebagai bahan untuk transaksi.

Jadi ada apa dengan dolar AS? Mungkin tren investasi terbesar sejak 2011 adalah dolar AS karena penguatannya.

Namun kini, indeks dolar AS terlihat sedang di dekat persimpangan yang menentukan, apakah tren kenaikannya yang berusia 2 tahun itu akan berlanjut atau terhenti.

Untuk lebih jelasnya di bawah ini ada sejumlah kutipan dari artikel terbaru Przemyslaw Radomski, seorang pemilik, pendiri dan sekaligus editor utama www.SunshineProfits.com.

Di dalamnya juga ada sejumlah grafik luar biasa yang berguna untuk Anda amati.

Published: September 20th, 2013

“What happened with the US dollar?

The USD Index lost over 1% and declined slightly above the 80 level on Wednesday. It’s worth noting that this is its biggest one-day slide in more than 2 months. Additionally, we saw such low values in February, well before Fed Chief Ben Bernanke first floated the idea of tapering the stimulus back in May.

Will the dollar recover quickly? Can we find any guidance in the charts?

In today’s essay we’ll examine the US Dollar Index. We’ll start with the USD Index very long-term chart to put the following gold chart into perspective (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.

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The situation in the long-term chart has changed (for the first time in several months), but the most important thing didn’t change. The long-term breakout above the declining long-term support line was not invalidated, even though the USD dropped heavily on Wednesday.

However, since the medium-term breakdown (below the support line marked with red) is visible from this perspective, we could see some short-term weakness anyway. Still, it seems that the long-term support line will stop the decline, so from the long-term perspective, it seems that the downside is quite limited.

Now, let’s examine the weekly chart.

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On the above chart, we see the breakdown more clearly. The breakdown is unconfirmed at this point, and we could still see a reversal back above the previously-broken support/resistance line. It would be a powerful bullish signal, but it seems more likely that we will see another move lower first. This is due to the size of Wednesday’s move without a visible intra-day pullback.

The target area is quite unclear because of the multiple support lines, including the long-term support line seen on the previous chart. It seems that we could see the US Dollar Index in the 78-79 range before the bottom is in.

Again the exact price target is unclear.

Summing up, taking into account the long-term breakout in the US dollar, the long-term outlook for the USD Index remains bullish, even though we could see additional weakness in the very short term.

Personal note: The US dollar is a natural risk-off hedge. With prices now depressed, it is as good a time as any to buy a little protection in the form of bullish US dollar exposure.

What Do the Charts Say?

GBPUSD bergerak sangat volatile tahun ini, dan sulit untuk ditransaksikan.

Namun, gambaran dalam jangka menengah sedikit lebih jelas dan bisa saja memanfaatkannya untuk memperoleh keuntungan.

John C. Burford, editor di MoneyWeek Trader, baru-baru ini menjelaskannya dalam artikel yang berjudul The new script for GBP/USD:

20 September, 2013

I titled my Wednesday email “The GBP/USD defies my analysis” because my forecast for a turn on 21 August was wrong – the market did go on to higher levels. However, I had a Plan B. And it seems my new analysis is working this morning.

On Wednesday, just before the ‘surprise’ announcement that the Fed would not be doing any tapering any time soon, I posted a chart on GBP/USD that showed a terrific tramline pair:

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Let’s take a moment to examine these tramlines and how I decided to place them there.  If you are using this method, it will pay to get a good handle on how to find reliable ones – and on what they can yield in terms of low-risk entries and exits (the formula, WC = 1.618 X WA at 1.6100, comes into play later on, offering us support for our target).

As you know, my tramline trading method is one of the pillars of my approach to trading. Even used on its own, it can often provide superb trade entries and exits. And so it appears to have done in this case.

The first tramline I drew was the lower line, which thankfully connected the low, the B wave low and the two or more touch points in late August. The total number of accurate touch points is at least four.

Because of the neatness of the fit of the touch points, I could consider that a highly reliable line of support to declines.  Remember, that is the function of tramlines – they channel trading activity as time progresses.  The market swings from the upper line, then down to the lower line, and back up to the upper line, and so on – until the tramline is broken.

Remember, I had a short trade working from the C wave top with my stop at break even as the market declined into the late August touch points.

Naturally, that was a place to exit a short-term trade.

I was able to make that profitable trade because of one thing – I knew where to place the tramlines, and I used the simple rule of shorting near the upper tramline and covering near the lower one.

That is one very simple and very powerful method for extracting profit from the markets. The potential profit available was around 150 pips.

And in fact, if a trader used only one method, she could do a lot worse than using my tramline method in this way.  Just wait for the perfect opportunity – as here – and pounce.

I held on to my trade as the market took me out at break even on the rally in early September. On Wednesday, I noted that because the market had moved above my old C wave top into new high ground, my old wave labels were not the whole story.

Now, from the lower tramline, I drew the parallel line taking in the major highs:

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And I struck gold!  I had a lovely prior pivot point (PPP), and took in the A wave highs with several touch points.

Thereafter, every time the market rallied to the line in the multiple touch points, it was turned back down. That’s solid resistance.

And odds are, when it does it again, it will behave in exactly the same way.

That is why a move to the upper line is a signal to short the market in preparation to a move back down.

Not only does this give you the correct place to enter – and the correct direction to trade – but it allows for a close stop to be used, to be placed above the tramline.

This is because if the market does break resistance and trade above the line, that may indicate the market wants to move higher – and will likely treat the line now as support.

You certainly do not want to be holding a short trade in a rising market from the off!

Signs of a trend reversal

Now on Wednesday, my upper tramline gave me an upper target at the 1.61 level, as did the equally wonderful Fibonacci wave relationship between the A and new C wave, which was in the making.

You see, the form of the rally was still an A-B-C only with a larger C wave than I had originally thought.

The formula wave C = 1.618 x wave A, shown in my charts above, projected a target at exactly the same 1.61 level within pips.

So that was my upper target, no matter how the market moved following the Fed news.

As it happened, the dollar was sold hard on the news and this was the picture Thursday:

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As so often occurs after the market is hit with news it was not expecting, it over-reacted and quickly rallied to the 1.6150 level – 50 pips above my target.

Then, after digesting the advance, which importantly took the market above my upper tramline, the market fell back yesterday under the line and traded inside the channel again.

This meant the market made an “overshoot” of the line – a brief foray above it before scuttling back under it.

This type of overshoot action very often signals a trend reversal – particularly after a long trending move, as the GBP/USD had seen.

Because I was confident of my targets as being the likely end of the rally, I entered a short trade just above the tramline with protective stop just above the 1.6150 high.

Now the market has declined by around 100 pips off the high, I can now move my protective stop to break even for a no-risk trade.

To sum up: I have worked two short trades and both have turned out to be no-risk trades. From a money-management perspective, this is as good as it gets.  If you can make trades that carry no risk of loss, you have reached trading heaven!  If even one of these trades makes a profit, you are making money.

I have used mainly my tramline method to pinpoint entries, also using Elliott wave theory to identify the A-B-C patterns.

Di akhir laporan ini, agar senantiasa tetap ceria, berikut saya lampirkan lelucon mengenai seekor anjing tua:

One day an old German Shepherd started chasing rabbits and before long, discovered he was lost. Wandering about, he noticed a young panther heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch.

The old German Shepherd thought, “Uh oh! I’m in deep trouble now!”

Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settled down to chew on them with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the panther was about to leap, the old German Shepherd exclaimed, “Boy, that was one delicious panther! I wonder if there are any more around here?”

Hearing this, the young panther halted his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror came over him, and he slunk away into the trees.

       “Whew!” said the panther, “That was close! That old German Shepherd nearly had me!”

Meanwhile, a squirrel, who had watched the whole scene from a nearby tree, figured he could put his knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the panther. So, off he went to spill the beans and strike a deal.

The young panther was furious at being made a fool of and said, “Here, squirrel, hop on my back and watch what I do to that conniving canine!”

Now, the old German Shepherd saw the panther coming with the squirrel on his back and thought, “What am I going to do now?” But instead of running, the dog sat down with his back to his attacker and pretended he hadn’t seen them yet. Just when they get close enough to hear, the old German Shepherd said…

“Where’s that squirrel? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another panther!”

Jangan main-main dengan anjing tua! Usia dan kemampuannya di atas anjing yang lebih muda.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 25 September 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

QE Tetap Berjalan Dan TIDAK PERNAH Akan Berhenti!

September 26th, 2013 No comments

“The economy is so dependent on artificial stimulation from the central bank… that the economy is in another artificial boom just like the artificial boom we have been trying to get out of. Any signs of economic growth or progress that we have experienced since 2008 are solely the result of government stimulus; in other words, more malinvestment.

– Mises Institute’s Peter Klein

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“If you say that if he [Bernanke] means what he says, then you believe in FatherChristmas. He said if the economy does not meet the expectations of the Fed in one year’s time, they will consider additional measures. In other words, if the economy has not fully recovered by mid-2014, more QE will be forthcoming. As I said already three years ago, we are going to go with the Fed to QE99.”

– Gloom, Boom, and Doom’s Marc Faber

 Secara sederhana menurut pandangan saya bahwa manipulasi bank sentral ke bursa merupakan kisah untuk dekade ini!

Kisah ini akan sangat penting bagi kesejahteraan Anda dalam jangka panjang, oleh karenanya saya kembali menjadikannya topik hari ini.

Yang jelas adalah: the Fed AS belakangan ini telah memberikan banyak ketidakpastian ke bursa.

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Rabu lalu, the Fed AS menyatakan bahwa data-data ekonomi belum mendukung untuk dilakukannya pengurangan program pembelian obligasi bulanan.

Sebagai akibatnya, bursa saham melonjak. Namun hanya kurang dari 48 jam kemudian, MarketWatch melaporkan bahwa:

The Federal Reserve could begin to slow asset purchases at its October meeting depending on economic data, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Friday on Bloomberg Television. “October is a live meeting,” he said. “This was a close decision here in September, so it’s possible you get some data that change the complexion of outlook and make the committee be comfortable with a small taper in October.”

Sebenarnya apa yang akan terjadi? Apakah the Fed memang akan mengurangi pembelian obligasi pemerintah dan aset-aset mortgage atau tidak?

Meskipun saya yakin bahwa jalur QE ini akan terus berlangsung sepanjang waktu, saya mengakui prospek akan adanya pengurangan (tapering) sedikit untuk mengembalikan kredibilitas bank sentral AS.

Namun, saya sama sekali tidak meragukan bahwa the Fed saat ini sedang membuat kesulitannya sendiri, terutama dari isu QE taper belakangan ini.

Yield obligasi pemerintah AS melonjak hampir dua kali lipat dan bursa-bursa negara berkembang mengalami tekanan jual dalam kondisi kepanikan karena anjloknya mata uang mereka masing-masing.

Dan saya bukan satu-satunya yang memiliki pandangan seperti itu.

19 September lalu, Grant Williams, seorang portfolio manager di Vulpes Precious Metals Fund, kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) menjelaskan tentang hal yang paling menakutkan dari keputusan the Fed pekan lalu.

Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam sebuah wawancana menarik tersebut:

“People were shocked the Fed was not going to taper $10-$15 billion per month, which would still have left them with $70-$75 billion of QE each month, and this is still an awful lot of money to be printing out of thin air.

But the fact that the Fed didn’t taper sends all kinds of terrible messages about the state of things, and I suspect it will take the markets a couple of days to digest that reality….

So far we have seen a little bit of short covering and muted euphoria in the markets, but I think that once participants realize that the Fed is not tapering, it will cast a terrible pall over what they see as the state of the economy, and I think we could see a fall in the markets.

If that fall in the markets happens I think it’s a problem.  It’s clear the Fed hasn’t tapered because they are concerned about a bunch of things, but primarily the possibility of a 3% yield on the 10-Year Treasury.  If we have dropped ourselves into some ‘twilight world,’ where 3% on the 10-Year is a problem, then I think that’s the clearest sign of the trouble we are now facing.

At some point, by doing what they are doing, the Fed is going to lose control of the bond market.  It’s pretty clear right now that the Fed has certainly lost control of their monetary policy.  The Fed can’t taper because rates are going to rise, and any recovery they are seeing is going to get strangled.

So the Fed has really backed itself into a corner and it has put itself into a position where it can’t do anything except for more of the same in the future.  Bernanke is waffling and changing his stance on what happens.  This sort of stuff is unprecedented, particularly with an outgoing Fed chairman who is essentially a lame duck.

Bernanke is now essentially setting policy for the incoming Fed chairman, and these are historic things which have never been tried before.  But, ultimately, if you are relying on a policy that rates are going to be at zero percent until 2016 to keep the party going, I don’t know how many people are foolish enough out there to believe that promise can’t be broken at some point.  If we get into 2014 and they need to raise rates, they are going to raise rates.  The promise won’t mean a thing. 

So markets are going to digest this over the next couple of days, and once the short covering has died down, and once people take a good hard look at an economy that really isn’t recovering, they are going to look at the position the Fed has backed itself into and the actions it has taken this week and realize that the Fed has now painted itself into a corner it can’t get out of.  They will realize that if the Fed doesn’t buy the government bonds then nobody is going to buy them.  Then people will start to really worry.

Sometimes these things take longer than you think to play out, but the Fed is now painted into a terrible corner here, and it’s hard to see any way out for them that doesn’t intentionally inflict a lot of pain on society. 

And I just don’t think they have the guts to do that, and I certainly don’t think they have the political mandate to do it.  So I think we are going to see more of the same, and the harder they push this (QE), and the less effect on the economy they have with it, the more dangerous it’s going to be.”

Selanjutnya Charles Hugh-Smith dari OfTwoMinds blog menyatakan the Fed dalam posisi sulit: akan meledakkan ekonomi jika terus melakukan QE, namun akan menghentikan pemulihan lambannya ini jika mengurangi atau menghentikannya.

Berikut penjelasannya dalam artikel yang berjudul The Fed’s Double-Bind:

The Federal Reserve is in a classic double-bind: as its policies to boost growth bear fruit, interest rates rise, threatening the very recovery the Fed has lavished trillions of dollars of quantitative easing (QE) to generate.

Higher growth naturally leads to higher interest rates, which then choke off growth.

The Fed’s goal was a self-sustaining recovery, in which growth reaches “escape velocity,” i.e. is strong enough to support higher interest rates.

But the pursuit of that goal via trillions of dollars of asset purchases has inflated asset bubbles in stocks and real estate. The Fed’s goal was to push speculative and institutional money into risk assets such as stocks, generating a “wealth effect” that was supposed to spill over into the real economy via higher borrowing and spending.

The pursuit of “the wealth effect” via inflating asset bubbles has created another double-bind: now that markets have become dependent on Fed money and liquidity pumping, the Fed cannot reduce its QE money-pump (currently $1 trillion a year) without tipping the stock market into free-fall.

If the Fed continues its massive monetary easing programs, asset bubbles will only inflate to speculative extremes, to the point where violent bursting becomes a matter not of “if” but of “when.” (This is also known as “the music stopping.”)

If the Fed cuts back its money-pumping and asset purchases, interest rates will rise, as interest rates will seek a market level that isn’t pushed to near-zero by the Fed’s financial repression.

Higher rates will choke off tepid Fed-induced growth. We already see home refinancing rates plummeting to 2009 recessionary levels.

So the Fed risks blowing asset bubbles that will devastate the economy if it continues the QE pumping, but it risks killing the tepid recovery if it cuts back its pumping. Darned if you do, darned if you don’t.

Put another way: if growth is needed to boost corporate sales and profits, but growth leads to higher interest rates and reduced central-bank support of markets, this is a double-bind with no exit.”

Because a picture is worth a thousand words …

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com baru-baru ini memiliki artikel singkat yang berjudul Albert Edwards Asks You To Spot The Difference (Hint: There Isn’t One).

Masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA dan tidak banyak butuh waktu untuk ini:

“I sometimes feel I am in a parallel universe. Maybe I am.” – Albert Edwards

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Why the stern condemnation from the SocGen strategist? Here’s why:

Personally I am incredulous. I can believe the arch dove Bernanke might have wanted to keep blowing his bubbles but I am amazed that he got the rest of the Fed, or at least the majority, on his side. I am also amazed because the Fed has spent weeks setting the markets up for a taper. Even a $5bn taper, which would have meant absolutely nothing in terms of the effect on the markets and economy, would have been seen as following through with their previous statements instead of introducing a huge element of uncertainty as to their intentions. Their word is apparently not their bond if bonds don’t like their words!

When we first began writing about QE in 2002 in the wake of Ben’s famous helicopter money speech, one of the things we said was that it would be extremely difficult for central banks to stop printing once they started along this road. My thoughts back then were that once they started they would end up buying the entire stock of government debt and then having to cancel it (i.e. QE turns into outright monetization). Hence we laughed ourselves stupid at the then Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King’s statement in January 2012 that “I have absolutely no doubt that when the time comes for us to reduce the size of the balance  sheet that we’ll find that a whole lot easier than we did when expanding it…”. What a joker!

Let’s go back to Dylan Grice’s seminal writings on this topic and revisit his prescient thoughts. He said back in 2010 in his note Print baby, print, What’s interesting is that central banks feel they have no choice. It’s not that they’re unaware of the risks (although there are profound behavioral biases working against them in their assessment of those risks). They’re printing money because they’re scared of what might happen if they don’t. This very real political dilemma is what is missing from the simplistic understanding of inflation as “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” It’s like they’re on a train which they know to be heading for a crash, but it is accelerating so rapidly they’re scared to jump off.

Incidentally, this is exactly the train Rudolf von Havenstein found himself on as President of the Reichsbank during the German hyperinflation. According to Liaquat Ahamed’s work on von Havenstein’s dilemma, in his majestic book ‘Lords of Finance’ – “were he to refuse to print the money necessary to finance the deficit, he risked causing a sharp rise in interest rates as the government scrambled to borrow from every source. The mass unemployment that would ensue, he believed, would bring on a domestic economic and political crisis, which in Germany’s [then] fragile state might precipitate a real political convulsion.” Plus ça change!

Kesimpulan

Graham Summers, seorang Chief Market Strategist pada Phoenix Capital Research, Jumat lalu menulis laporan singkatnya, yang berjudul This Time Around The Fed IS The Bubble, yang dengan sederhana dan mudah dimengerti menjelaskan mengapa bursa semakin dekat dengan puncaknya:

“Market tops always involve insanity. And today we have that in abundance.

On Wednesday the Fed surprised the world by not announcing a QE taper. Stocks and all “risk” assets exploded higher. Today, a mere 48 hours later, Fed President Bullard says the Fed should taper soon. Stocks collapse.

For the markets to react so significantly to such issues is a tell-tale sign that we are near a major top. The reliance on Fed stimulus has never been greater with even a hint of Fed policy actually having more impact that the policy itself.

Rumors, whispers and threats dominate trading. This is the sign of market mania.

The most important element is that this mania has been driven by the Fed, not some new technology (the Internet in the tech bubble), new asset growth (housing), but the Central Bank.

In the past, the Fed has been the fuel for bubbles. This time around, the Fed IS the bubble itself, with its balance sheet expansion driving ALL assets higher.

So when this bubble bursts, it will be truly catastrophic because no one can bail out the Fed. Interest rates are already at Zero. QE is already running non-stop. There will literally be nothing the Fed can do.

I cannot say the top is in today, nor can I say it will be here in a week. But THE top is forming. And it will be absolutely awful when it’s done. We’ve now had three SERIAL bubbles in the markets in the last 13 years. Each bubble’s bursting has been worse than the last. The next one will be THE biggest one yet.(emphasis mine)

Seperti biasa saya berikan gambar-gambar agar Anda tetap ceria di akhir laporan saya ini. Gambar beserta pantun jenaka berikut diambil dari WilliamBanzai7 Fine Art Prints:

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The people are starting to feel

An end to the FED’s QE deal

If tapers begin

 Like staples on skin

 The pain from the FED could be real

 The Limerick King

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 24 September 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Bersiaplah Untuk Isu Debt Ceiling!

September 23rd, 2013 No comments

“Here’s the thing about the future. If you knew that a levee was unsound and you knew people were moving into the area and you knew they were at risk, would you stand by and do nothing and say nothing about it? Of course not – that would be irresponsible. Yet that’s what we’re doing as a nation to the future. We know we have this problem, we know that the fiscal/federal levees are unsound, we know that the structure’s not sound for the long term. And yet we’re ushering future generations in and saying nothing about it, doing nothing about it, and that’s the immoral part of it.”

– Robert Bixby, editorial director of the Concord Coalition

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Sebelum lebih jauh ke topik utama ini, saya terlebih dahulu akan memberikan market update singkat karena suatu hal yang dramatis terjadi Jumat kemarin.

Indeks Dow Jones turun signifikan di akhir perdagangan pekan kemarin – sebuah penurunan terbesarnya dalam 3 pekan – sekaligus menghapus seluruh kenaikannya pasca sidang FOMC.

Bahkan Dow Jones turun dengan volume yang berada di level tertingginya selama lebih dari 2 tahun, seperti dapat dilihat dalam grafik di bawah ini:

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Chart: Bloomberg

Secara sederhana menurut pandangan saya bahwa ini satu hal yang sungguh harus diperhatikan (tekanan harga dengan volume sangat tinggi), jadi mari kita saksikan apakah hal tersebut akan berlanjut awal pekan ini…

Isu tapering sudah lewat, namun isu lain yang mungkin tak kalah besar, yang dapat beresiko bagi bursa, sedang mengintai.

Seperti dijelaskan oleh Mark Zandi, chief economist pada Moody’s Analytics, baru-baru ini, “The debt ceiling will become a real problem by mid-October… I think [industry commentators] need to start talking a little more about that.”

Jika Kongres AS tidak mampu mengesahkan undang-undang mengenai debt ceiling dalam beberapa pekan ini, menurut Zandi isu ini bisa lebih berbahaya dari QE taper, yang sempat memicu sell off bursa saham dunia karena investor lari dari aset beresiko menuju aset safe haven.

Dengan berakhirnya wewenang anggaran pemerintah AS pada 30 September ini dan wewenang pinjaman kementerian keuangannya pada pertengahan Oktober nanti, maka pembahasan untuk melakukan peningkatan debt ceiling (plafon hutang) akan menjadi fokus perhatian.

Kekhawatiran yang akan muncul adalah jika para investor tidak percaya terhadap pemerintah AS untuk mengatur keuangannya, maka mereka menarik dana investasi dari obligasi pemerintah AS.

Tentunya tidak ada yang percaya bahwa Kongres akan membiarkan terjadinya Government Shutdown, meskipun beberapa anggota menghendaki seperti demikian.

Kehancuran bursa akan terjadi jika ketidakpastian berkembang jelang keputusan Kongres untuk anggaran pemerintah AS mendatang, seperti menunda-nunda keputusan.

Akibatnya kita akan diselimuti awan kelam kembali yang potensial bisa menekan sentimen bursa dalam beberapa pekan ke depan.

Oleh karenanya untuk saat ini, menurut saya akan lebih bijak jika mulai bersiap untuk berakhirnya rally dari putusan “no-taper” bank sentral AS pekan lalu dan mulai mengawasi pembahasan anggaran pemerintah AS.

What Do the Charts Say?

Agar mendapat pandangan mengenai situai hutang AS yang genting, bersama ini saya lampirkan komentar dan sejumlah grafik yang dapat membuka mata kita, milik Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com

Saat melihat grafik-grafik berikut ini akan muncul pertanyaan betapa banyaknya persoalan hutang AS. Saya bukan mengklaim bahwa saya tahu jawabannya, tapi saya hanya menduga bahwa ini akan memicu asset bubble.

Silahkan amati grafik-grafik berikut dengan seksama untuk memperoleh jawaban apakah public debt AS saat ini akan mengalami peningkatan:

1)   On This Day In 2017 (June 17th)

With the meaningless focus on such distracting noise as daily POMOs, will/won’t the Fed taper, how many shorts will the Fed’s Markets desk squeeze today, and how massive will the second Fed housing bubble be, it is easy to lose sight of the big picture, namely just where is the debt juggernaut that is the US, heading? Conveniently, the US debt clock has a “time machine” function that extrapolates, at current rates of change, what the key metrics behind the US economic facade will look like.

So in a nutshell, on this day in 2017…

  • Total debt: $22.9 trillion (assuming “normalized” 5% interest means $1.1 trillion in annual interest expense)
  • GDP: $16.9 trillion
    • Debt to GDP ratio: 136%
  • Federal Tax Revenue: $3.3 trillion
  • Federal Spending: $4.1 trillion;  Federal Revenue: $3.3 trillion
    • Federal Budget Deficit
  • US Total Debt: $63.8 trillion (excluding unfunded liabilities)
  • Total National Assets: $167.2 trillion, $508,493 assets per citizen
  • Total Unfunded Liabilities: $152.4 trillion, $1,237,426 liability per taxpayer
  • Consolidated total debt and unfunded liabilities: $216.2 trillion

 And so on.

The constantly updated (and very sad) picture can be found after the jump:

Blog-04Jun3

2)   40 Years Of ‘The Unbearable Heaviness Of Being’ An American Taxpayer (August 8th)

When federal spending grows faster than American’s paychecks, the burden of government on taxpayers becomes greater. Over the past four decades, Americans’ earnings have risen only 24%; while spending by the government has risen 288%, which begs the question – where did it all go?

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(h/t @FLA_MATT)

3)   How Many Treasuries Do Russia And China Own? (September 6th)

Between the two of them, this much: $1,414 billion, or 25% of all foreign held US Treasury paper.

Now the question is – if the military escalation begins, would one or both dump without regard for price, crush the carefully manicured rate-driven recovery, and punch the ultimate decision-maker behind the Syrian war, the Federal Reserve and the banker upper-class, where it really hurts?

Blog-04Jun6

Source: TIC

4)   America’s Next “Debt Ceiling”: At Least $17.8 Trillion (September 11th)

The theatrics this time around will certainly be spectacular, but the end result will be the same: after much yelling, screaming, posturing and crying, the US debt ceiling will once again be raised. The next question: what will be the new and improved debt ceiling, since $16.7 trillion in total debt was hit back in May? According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, the minimum required permitted debt at December 2014 will be an increase of $1.1 trillion, or $17.8 trillion in total, or about 105% of GDP assuming current growth rates and assuming no more upward revisions to GDP which magically add $600 billion out of thin air to the total number.

Blog-04Jun7

However, while the final number may end up being more or less, the more relevant implication is that the monthly net debt growth of just under $60 billion, of which less than half be accounted for by the longer, QE-affected end, shows just how urgent the impetus is on the Fed to reduce its monthly monetization amount. After all, the Fed already does monetize about 90% of all Treasury paper with duration exposure (5Y+). If it continues to do nothing, this number will rise to over 120%, and soak up collateral at such a pace that it will make the TBAC’s head spin, and extract every last ounce of liquidity from the marginal bond market.

This goes back to square one. The reason for this slowdown is a transitory drop in US deficit funding needs: needs which surge once more in 3-4 years due to demographics. And since there is no way to avoid runaway spending in the second half of the decade, the Treasury may as well go ahead and ramp up bond issuance, and thus demand more Congressional spending right now. They don’t call the Debt Ceiling the “Debt Target” without a reason…

This is where such episodes as Syria fall in.

Expect many more false flags in the near future, and expect the December 2014 debt ceiling to be substantially higher than that projected above.

Seperti biasa, agar selalu ceria di akhir tulisan ini saya lampirkan gambar-gambar lucu terkait dengan isu debt ceiling:

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 23 September 2013

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