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Bukankah Sebaiknya Kita Lupakan Saja ‘Taper’?

October 30th, 2013 No comments

“The bottom line is that all of this means that QE4 is becoming QE5, which will become QE-to-infinity. ‘Banana’ Ben Bernanke will be succeeded by the ‘Queen of the Counterfeiters’ Janet Yellen. There will be no tapering, and if there were to be any small tapering, it will be inconsequential because the Fed is addicted to creating these bubbles in order to bring about this artificial and temporary anemic growth. God help us all because there will be hell to pay when this tragic collapse begins. This will end in total devastation.”

– Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies

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“The question is not tapering. The question is at what point they will increase the asset purchases to say $150 [billion], $200 [billion], a trillion dollars a month. Every government program that is introduced under urgency and as a temporary measure is always permanent. The Fed has boxed itself into a position where there is no exit strategy.”

– Marc Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

Pekan ini adalah pertemuan FOMC-The Fed AS untuk melihat arah kebijakan moneter bank sentral AS ke depan.  Perlu dilihat apakah ada perubahan jelas dari pernyataan resmi sebelumnya, dan kemungkinan akan menyatakan bahwa untuk melakukan tapering perlu melihat data-data ekonomi lebih lanjut dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

The Fed AS memang dianggap sebagai potensi yang mengkhawatirkan, karena pasar sungguh bereaksi negatif terhadap sejumlah hal yang berkembang tahun ini, di tengah prospek program stimulus (QE) akan dikurangi atau bahkan akan dihilangkan.

Namun tutupnya (shutdown) sejumlah layanan pemerintahan selama 16 hari sejak 1 Oktober 2013, dan rilis pesimis data ekonomi AS baru-baru ini, membuat the Fed AS cenderung masih akan melanjutkan program stimulus bulanannya tersebut, yang hingga saat ini masih bernilai $85 milyar.

Hasil survey terbaru di sejumlah primary dealers – yang adalah partisipan langsung pada lelang obligasi pemerintah AS – menunjukkan 9 dari 15 yakin bahwa the Fed AS terpaksa akan menunda tapering setidaknya hingga Maret 2014.

Jadi jangan berharap banyak akan adanya kejelasan mengenai langkah tapering di pertemuan pekan ini, meskipun kita belum tahu apakah akan ada rincian atau perkembangan mengenai hal itu.

Lagipula, dalam tulisan 24 September 2013 lalu, saya mengatakan bahwa QE tidak akan pernah berhenti dan terus berlanjut. Untuk hal ini saya memang masih meyakininya.

Seperti dengan jelas dikatakan baru-baru ini oleh Grant Williams, the Portfolio & Strategy Advisor dari Vulpes Investment Management di Singapura, bahwa

“when it came to crunch time, the Fed didn’t have the guts to pull the trigger.”

Dalam media finansialnya: ‘Things That Make You Go Hmmm…’, tertanggal 14 Oktober 2013, Williams menulis bahwa ‘langkah The Fed yang tidak lumrah’ tersebut telah membuatnya jadi bergantung pada QE.

Berikut adalah penjelasannya mengenai The Fed AS, setelah gagal melakukan taper, akan sangat menghancurkan kredibilitasnya:

The Fed has painted itself into an almighty corner with QE, and it looks as though we are finally getting to the point in the process where that fact begins to (a) occur to people and (b) matter.

Bill Fleckenstein has often spoken about the Fed’s reaching the point where it “loses control of the bond market”, and it is quite possible that we are rapidly approaching that point (the signs have certainly been strong in Japan). We may be there already. We won’t know until we can look in the rearview mirror, I’m afraid; but the nonvirtuous circle the Fed has created is extremely clear:

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The simple truth, as you can see from the diagram above, is that the economy and the markets are now 100% dependent on the largesse of the Federal Reserve to sustain them. What you CAN’T see from the diagram is the scary proposition that the Federal Reserve in turn is entirely dependent upon hope to get itself out of this unholy cycle.

The Fed is hoping (as are the ECB, BoE, and BoJ) that the economy recovers sufficiently through massive stimulus so that the recovery will be “self-sustaining”; but, as can clearly be seen by the action of the markets in recent weeks and months, that strategy (such as it is) appears doomed to failure.

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Fortunately, Obama has finally been left with just nominated Janet Yellen as the new Fed chair, and she can be relied upon to continue Greenspan & Bernanke’s work in conjuring unlimited free money out of thin air.

Which is great for the status quo, but if we take another look at that chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield again, we see something that ought to set alarm bells ringing…

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The retracement of interest rates AFTER the Fed’s refusal to follow up their tough talk with a Taper has been far less marked than the rout that ensued after the subject was first tabled; and that spells trouble, because the housing market — the engine of the US “recovery” — cannot stand higher rates without being choked off…

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Well, Janet Yellen might well confound everybody and launch the Taper as her first order of business. Or Buysenberg may even begin it as his last act in power; but either way, the market will now likely call the Fed’s bluff, because it knows that the gun hanging on the wall in the shape of the Taper is not guaranteed to be fired. It may even turn out to be completely superfluous to the narrative; and if that is the case, then chances are it will never be fired.

Just as Walter White’s honest intentions in trying to protect his family ended up trapping him in an ever-worsening spiral where countless millions of dollars only made his situation worse, Ben Bernanke is in a similar prison of his own making.

The Fed realizes the truth of that — hence the abandonment of both the Taper and their own credibility — but their chances of averting catastrophe are receding daily.”

Untuk tulisan Grant Williams lebih lengkapnya, klik di bawah ini…

Ttmygh 14 October 2013

Selanjutnya, seperti biasa, adalah Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang memberikan penjelasan mengenai ketidak-konsistenan the Fed AS dalam tulisannya 17 Oktober lalu yang bertema kiss tapering goodbye:

“Just out from Fed “hawk” Dick Fisher:

  • FISHER: FISCAL SHENANIGANS HAVE `SWAMPED’ QE TAPER PROSPECTS
  • FISHER: HARD TO NOW ARGUE TO CHANGE COURSE OF MONETARY POLICY
  • FISHER HAS FAVORED TAPERING FED MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES
  • U.S. FED’S FISHER REPEATS BEST TO ‘STAY THE COURSE’ ON BOND BUYING AT OCTOBER FOMC MEETING

And therein lies the most circular argument of the New Normal.

On one hand “fiscal shenanigans” exist, as does unprecedented Congressional dysfunction, simply because the Fed’s endless intervention in the bond market has now made Fiscal policy both meaningless and ultra permissive. After all, why not fund everything with debt if said debt will be promptly monetized by the Fed, in the process keeping bond yields so low that there is no opportunity cost to reckless spending and making a complete mockery of fiscal prudency. Of course, there will be a price to pay “at the end of the tunnel”, but for now the music is playing and one must if not dance, then issue as much debt as Bernanke, and soon Yellen, will monetize.

On the other hand, it is the same Fed-enabled, broken Congress that now virtually assures a government shutdown every quarter, when the can is repeatedly kicked “3 months down the line”, and which will mean the Fed will be ‘confused’ as there is no government data for weeks on end, making any Tapering discussion impossible. And to the Fed’s benefit and great comfort, it can just blame the same Congress and its “fiscal shenanigans” for its inability to extricate itself from the centrally-planned mess it has made.

Finally, it was notable that Blackrock’s Larry Fink yesterday said he now doesn’t see a Taper until June. At the rate we are going, one can simply kiss the Taper goodbye, which however means that going forward instead of monetizing 0.2% of all 10Year equivalent duration, the Fed’s weekly purchases will extract between 0.3% and 0.5% from the private sector until such time as bond market liquidity is non-existent.”

Dan terakhir dari Peter Schiff dari Euro Pacific Capital yang menjelaskan alasan mengapa nominasi Yellen menyebabkan seluruh ekspektasi QE taper menjadi keliru:

Now that Janet Yellen has been named to lead the Federal Reserve the global financial markets should factor out any possibility that the Fed will diminish their Quantitative easing program anytime during her tenure. In fact, financial forecasts should assume that not only is a taper off the table, but that the QE program is now more likely to be perpetuated and expanded.

Unlike her predecessors, Janet Yellen has never had a youthful dalliance with hawkish monetary ideas. Before taking charge of the Fed both Alan Greenspan, and to a lesser extent Ben Bernanke, had advocated for the benefits of a strong currency and low inflation and had warned of the dangers of overly accommodative policy and unnecessary stimulus. (Both largely abandoned these ideals once they took the reins of power, but their urge to stimulate may have been restrained by a vestigial bias against the excesses of Keynesianism). Janet Yellen, who has been on the liberal/dovish end of the monetary spectrum for her entire professional career, has no such baggage. As a result, we can expect her to never waver in her belief that stimulus is the answer to every economic question.   

The Federal Reserve was originally charged with the single mandate of maintaining price stability. In recent decades that mission evolved into a dual mandate of seeking price stability and full employment. I believe that a Yellen led Fed will return once again to a single mandate, but now it will focus only on employment. Based on her clear beliefs in the ability of dovish monetary policy to relive human suffering she will be inclined to dig in her heels into the ongoing QE program more than anyone else President Obama may have appointed. This is terrible news for the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

For now at least the crisis in Washington has squelched any immediate discussion of a taper in the remaining months of 2013. Any predictions that a Yellen-led Fed will somehow show more resolve towards responsibility in 2014 or 2015 should be looked at as delusional.

Kesimpulan

Kesimpulan kali ini menurut saya sungguh luar biasa yang diambil dari Ben Hunt, Ph.D., yang menyatakan bahwa bahwa QE telah menjadi alat lain untuk mengelola siklus bisnis dan bermacam resiko resesi.

Karena resiko tersebut masih ada, maka kita masih akan melihat QE:

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“In Pulp Fiction the John Travolta character plunges a syringe of adrenaline into Uma Thurman’s heart to save her life. This was QE in March, 2009 … an emergency, once in a lifetime effort to revive an economy in cardiac arrest. Now, four and a half years later, QE is adrenaline delivered via IV drip … a therapeutic, constant effort to maintain a certain quality of economic life. This may or may not be a positive development for Wall Street, depending on where you sit. I would argue that it’s a negative development for most individual and institutional investors. But it is music to the ears of every institutional political interest in Washington, regardless of party, and that’s what ultimately grants QE bureaucratic immortality.

It is impossible to overestimate the political inertia that exists within and around these massive Federal insurance programs, just as it is impossible to overestimate the electoral popularity (or market popularity, in the case of QE) of these programs. In the absence of a self-imposed wind-down plan – and that’s exactly what Bernanke laid out in June and exactly what he took back on Wednesday – there is no chance of any other governmental entity unwinding QE, even if they wanted to. Which they don’t. Regardless of what political party may sit in the White House or control Congress in the years to come, it will be as practically impossible and politically unthinkable to eliminate QE as it is to eliminate Social Security or food stamps. QE is now a creature of Washington, forever and ever, amen.

Di akhir tulisan saya ini, agar tetap ceria, berikut adalah sejumlah gambar dan pantun jenaka dari William Banzai:

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As victims of stimulus mount

This thief must be held to account

He’s bleeding us dry

His victims will die

The number of which he’s lost count

 The Limerick King

 Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 30 Oktober 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Kenaikan Emas Jangka Pendek Akan Berlanjut?

October 29th, 2013 No comments

“The rationale for investing in the precious metals sector remains compelling, in our opinion. That rationale rests on two fundamental pillars. Firstly, world-wide fiscal and monetary policies have been directly and indirectly subsidizing asset values, which makes financial assets especially vulnerable to permanent impairment when supports inevitably end. Secondly, continuous and unconstrained monetary emissions are fraught with unintended consequences, which have historically included debasement of paper currencies via inflation or devaluation and sovereign debt crises. These risks can imperil all financial assets both in terms of their market prices and solvency.”

– John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.

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“When the paper system collapses, the survivors will dig in the rubble, and they will find gold.”

– Lord Rees Mogg

Alasan untuk kembali mengetengahkan emas dalam laporan kali ini adalah bahwa pergerakan harganya belakangan ini seolah sedang dalam titik perubahan.

Setelah kenaikan yang solid pekan lalu, menurut saya akan menarik melihat sejumlah level support dan resistance penting yang akan memberikan indikasi arah pergerakan harga emas ke depannya.

Dan berikut ini saya lampirkan sejumlah artikel yang akan memberikan Anda pandangan terhadap pasar emas yang kadang cukup volatile.

Yang pertama dari Greg Guenthner, yang menulis The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening

Dalam salah satu laporan terbarunya, yang dipublikasikan pada tanggal 23 Oktober 2013, dia menjelaskan 3 alasan mengapa emas meningkat pesat:

“Over the past week, gold has gone from zero to hero, breaking off an $80 run in just five trading days.

I’ve been bearish on gold since earlier this year. But I think this move could have legs. In fact, gold stocks might even move significantly higher before we finish out the year.

Here are the clues indicating gold might be undergoing a change of character:

1. Fakeouts lead to breakouts

On Oct. 15, gold futures plummeted to a low of $1,251. This drop signaled a clear break below critical support at $1,275. That morning, it looked like the floor was about to drop out. I suspected gold futures would soon test their late June lows of $1,179…

That’s when buyers stepped in. Futures haven’t looked back since. Here’s where we stand now:

After faking a move lower, gold futures have broken above resistance, posting the first higher low since early July. This could be a significant short-term bottom—especially since it was preceded by a false move lower.

Nic-682. Miners try for a double-bottom

If you want to find an asset class performing worse than gold this year, look no further than gold miners. Investors have slammed these stocks. The group is down nearly 44% on the year. No one wants these stocks…

However, the chart is beginning to look constructive…

Nic-69The miner to metal ratio has been dismal all year. If this bottom holds, we could see miners snap back in a big way

3. Sentiment is in the gutter

Just 10 days ago, CNBC’s gold sentiment survey revealed 83% of those surveyed were expecting prices to fall. That’s way too lopsided. Whenever you see sentiment get to these extremes, it’s time to start looking for a big move in the opposite direction.

So what happens next?

I think gold (and miners) can move higher from here. It will be messy. There will be big down days mixed with the initial thrusts higher. But right now, gold appears to be setting up for a solid fourth quarter.

I’m not ready to declare blue skies and new highs in gold’s future just yet. But something is brewing right now that could spark a significant move. If you’re nimble and you don’t mind big swings in both directions, this is your time to trade…”

Selanjutnya Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com juga pada 23 Oktober lalu memberikan laporan mengenai BofAML has turned bullish on gold:

“BofAML’s MacNeil Curry is changing his view on gold from bearish to bullish. The impulsive gains from the 1251 low of Oct-15 and break of the two-month downtrend (confirmed on the break of 1330) tells him that a medium-term base and bullish turn is unfolding. BoFAML looks for an ultimate break of the 1433 highs of Aug-28, with potential for a push to 1500/1533 long term resistance. In the next several sessions Curry suggest buying dips into 1309, cautioning that this bullish view is “wrong” if gold breaks below 1251. For those awaiting additional confirmation of a turn, Curry notes you need to see a break of 1375 (Sep-19 high & right shoulder off a multi-month Head and Shoulders Top).”

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Berikutnya dari analis terkemuka Citi, Tom Fitzpatrick, yang mengetengahkan sebuah grafik emas yang fantastis, tentunya dengan komentar yang luar biasa.

“Gold is breaking through resistance around $1,343 and should move towards the $1,430.  We continue to be of the bias that Gold is setting up for a multi-year rally and a break above the $1,522-$1,532 area would solidify this view.

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Gold is pushing higher through the 55-day moving average and we continue to expect higher levels in both the near-and-long-term. The next resistance level to watch in the short-term is the $1,430 area, where the 200-day moving average converges with the August high. 

Through there the $1,522-$1,533 area could provide further resistance.  This area held well as support in 2011 and 2012 and the break below this year led to accelerated losses.  A break higher through that area would suggest to us that the correction for this year is over and that the long-term uptrend has resumed (as we have previously articulated, we remain of the bias that Gold will continue to see gains in the coming years and maintain a long-term target of $3,500 – this is further supported by the idea of no Fed tapering for the foreseeable future).”

Terakhir yang tak kalah menarik adalah James Turk, yang juga baru-baru ini di KWN (www.kingworldnews.com) melampirkan grafik emas yang menarik, yang sedang membentuk pola inverse head & shoulders.

Pola ini akan terkonfirmasi jika harga emas ditutup di atas $1415 (lihat grafik di bawah ini):

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Kesimpulan (oleh Pater Tenebrarum dari Acting Man blog)

As before, we cannot yet say whether a trend change is definitely in the bag. However, considering how absolutely dismal sentiment on gold is, considering the many similarities to the 2008 ‘retest’ that could be observed recently (back then, gold was also declared ‘dead’ by the mainstream) and given the fact that for a change, the gold market has not acted in the way that was widely expected, it continues to make sense to look for more signs of a trend change to emerge.

Ideally declines should continue to be kept in check by support at $1275, while any rally that manages to exceed the $1350 level on a closing basis can probably be interpreted as a sign that the short to medium term trend has finally reversed for good.

Terakhir, seperti biasa saya lampirkan pantun dan gambar jenaka dari William Banzai mengenai NeW OBaMaCaRe WeBSiTe:

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Obam-Mo is making a call

He heard that his plan covers all

He’s not getting through

He’ll wait till he’s blue

He needs a new plan for his doll

The Limerick King

 Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 28 Oktober 2013

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Bursa Saham Mulai ‘Gemetar’?

October 23rd, 2013 1 comment

“If the economy was truly healthy, we should be seeing consistent jobs growth, better manufacturing data, higher consumer spending, and rising corporate revenues. These are the reasons why the stock market should advance higher, and not simply because the easy money is allowed to flow unabated into the economy. When this happens, it opens up the stock market to potential issues and selling down the road.”

– George Leong, Profit Confidential

Kali ini laporan saya buat agak singkat namun sebisa mungkin saya ingin tetap bermanfaat, karena di hari yang sama dengan laporan ini buat saya akan memberikan komentar di sebuah stasiun televisi swasta di Jakarta.

Belakangan ini bursa saham menjadi teka-teki bagi para investor. Ada yang mengatakan harga-harga saham sudah demikian tinggi, terutama untuk saham-saham berkapitalisasi besar. Memang ada benarnya!

Mayoritas peningkatan harga saham tahun ini disebabkan oleh MULTIPLE EXPANSION, bukan oleh pertumbuhan pendapatannya.

Namun, dalam dunia yang jauh dari kenyataan (fantasi), bisa saja harga saham yang overvalue berkembang menjadi overvalue secara fantastis.

Seperti kita tahu, adalah pencetakan uang yang menyebabkan multiple expansion di harga-harga saham hingga saat ini. Karena plafon hutang dinaikkan maka pencetakan uang akan semakin meningkat, dan perlu dipertimbangkan multiple expansion tersebut akan meningkat pula.

Pendapatan bisa kembali bertumbuh bersama dengan multiple expansion karena inflasi akan mendorong pertumbuhan nominal lebih tinggi.

Singkatnya, kita akan menyaksikan kenaikan harga saham lagi karena berlanjutnya pencetakan uang sebelum terjadi keruntuhan seperti era Weimar.

Meskipun saya tetap yakin bahwa sistem finansial global akan runtuh suatu saat, sejumlah grafik indeks saham maupun saham-saham secara individu menunjukkan masih ada kenaikan dari harga-harga saat ini.

Tentunya bisa terjadi reversal dengan mudah jika sejumlah indikator ekonomi penting kian memburuk, namun apa yang saya lihat pada momentum saat ini cukup konstruktif.

Meskipun banyak para ahli yakin bahwa saham-saham sudah berada dalam kondisi bubble, kenaikan masih akan berlanjut karena pencetakan uang.

Namun demikian, Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com mengingatkan dalam 2 laporan terakhirnya bahwa multiple expansion sedang memasuki wilayah berbahaya:

1)   Is The Multiple-Expansion “Dream” Over? (October 5th)

The current market environment of increasing event risk (suppressed by the all too visible un-tapering hand of the Fed) and slumping earnings expectations has had little to no effect on either the US equity market nominal level or the commission-taking asset-gatherers pitching the “long-term” buy that the market always is. Through the magic of multiple expansion, stocks remain at all-time highs and are pitched as “cheap” because multiples can still get bigger – remember March 2000 25.6x P/E… There is only one thing wrong with that dream. No matter how hard the Fed tries (mistakenly as we noted here) to pump the “economy” full of money to make consumers feel good, Consumer Sentiment has hit a wall…

The ubiquitous “but P/Es can expand much much more before they have hit a ‘top” chart…

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But aside from the dot-com bubble, current levels of valuation are at or near peak of the last 30 years…

On a historical earnings basis…

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and a forward-looking basis…

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But, it’s all about confidence… investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable… And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market to approach historical multiple valuation levels…

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2)   Goldman: Entire S&P Move Higher Is Due To Multiple Expansion; Shiller P/E Says 30% Overvalued So… Buy (October 19th)

While it has been a stretch to call Bernanke’s post-2009 experiment in “wealth-effect” central planning (where in 2013 the Russell 2000 has outperformed the composite hedge fund by a factor of over 500%!) a “market”, here are some of the latest market thoughts by Goldman’s David Kostin.

US stocks surged to an all-time high of 1745 following the debt accord. The S&P 500 has returned 22% YTD driven almost entirely by P/E multiple expansion rather than higher earnings.

In other words, there has been zero actual bottom line improvement in 2013. Zilch. Nada. All this despite so many loud promises by every pundit in late 2012 that 2013 will be the year of the turn, just wait, you’ll see. It also means there has been zero “fundamental” component to the upside. All of it is multiple expansion. What’s another name for that? Why, “the Fed.”

Bearishly inclined investors will point to the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio popularized by newly-crowned Nobel laureate Robert Shiller that suggests the S&P 500 is roughly 30% overvalued based on 10-year trailing average reported EPS.

“30% overvalued” by a person who just won the Nobel prize for saying the market is irrational and creates bubbles? You don’t say. Why is a perfect segue into the final Goldman notice:

We forecast the index will climb to 1750 by year-end 2013, a slim advance less than 1% above today’s level. Our year-end 2014 price target remains 1900 or 9% above the current level. S&P 500 trades at 2.6x price/book value. From a valuation perspective, the index level is consistent with the market’s current return on equity (ROE) of 15.5%, and in-line with the 35-year average P/B.

To summarize Goldman:

  • All upside is multiple expansion-driven, i.e. relentless Fed pumping of risks as the final bubble grows to unprecedented proportions,
  • A market which even tenured economists say is a disaster waiting to happen.
  • But hey, the music is still playing so everyone must dance all the way until Goldman’s 2100 target… in 2015.

All of this has come and gone before, but since this time will be different, one can just ignore the recurring past.         

What Do the Charts Say?

Ketika pasar global terus berusaha bertahan, penulis media kawakan, Richard Russell, memberikan peringatan pada para investor pada 1 Oktober lalu bahwa mereka harus siap menyaksikan “massive and radical change,” karena bursa saham global akan mencapai puncaknya dan kemudian mengalami penurunan bersejarah.

Lebih lanjut Russel juga menjelaskan bagaimana penurunan besar akan mengantar pada sistem  moneter baru:

“This site will be about the Dow formation that we see below.  This formation is known as the “megaphone formation” or the “broadening formation.”

Nic-66The broadening formation is indicative of a market in turmoil, with sentiment swinging wildly from one way to the other.  Incredibly, the broadening formation has appeared in every major bear market since 1929.  It appeared prior to WWII in 1929.  It appeared in 1957 and 1965-66.  We saw a broadening top in 1987 and again in 1998-2000.  The most recent broadening formation we saw was in 2004 to 2008.

I have long speculated about the sentiment basis of broadening formations.  Each broadening formation is made up of three rising waves and two corrective waves.  As far as sentiment is concerned, I believe broadening formations are the result of wildly swinging reversals in sentiment from bearish to bullish — and then bearish, and finally a huge swing back to extreme bullishness.  This final wave of optimism is the market’s kiss of death, since this final rising wave takes stocks far above known values.

The current broadening formation is unique in that it is, by far, the largest broadening formation that I have ever seen.  Note that wave D to E has not yet touched the upper trend line.  Frankly, I don’t know whether it is necessary for the Dow to make contact with the upper trend line in order to complete the formation.

If the Dow is to touch the upper trend line of the formation, the Dow will have to advance to at least 16,000, which would be an all-time high.  An interesting thesis here is that earnings alone are not the reason for the Dow advancing.  What is driving this market higher is an increase in price/earnings.  In other words, earnings have not been rising, but what has been boosting the market is investors’ sentiment.  Investors have been increasingly bullish on the market, and therefore, they have been willing to pay more and more for the same amount of earnings.

I’ve written about this before.  The major swings in stock prices are often a result of drastic changes in the price/earnings ratio.  Investors become too bullish or too bearish about stocks.  When they become too bullish, this thrusts stocks into the dangerously overvalued zone.  The opposite is true when investors become too bearish.  Charles Dow wrote that unless there was some special reason, stocks were overvalued when dividends sank below 3.5%.

Back to the broadening formation:  In past cases, the bear market associated with a broadening formation carried to the lower trend line of the formation.  So let’s consider that the current broadening formation follows the typical pattern.  In that case, we might expect the Dow to top out anywhere from its current position to a level around 16,000 or even a bit higher. 

Assuming that a major bear market will begin from wherever the Dow tops out, we can assume that the Dow will decline to at least the right end of the lower trend line of the broadening formation.  If that holds true, then we can expect the bear market will take the Dow down to at least 5,000.  That would represent a horrendous loss, although not nearly as bad as the 1929 to 1932 bear market.

I’ve searched my mind to try to understand what a bear market to Dow 5,000 might mean.  In the first place, I think such a bear market could involve a new monetary system.  I also think a huge bear market would see the balance of international power shift from the US to China.  Finally, the giant megaphone formation that I show could be an advance message to the effect that we must all be ready for massive and radical change.

Question — How do you think we should prepare for these massive changes that you foresee?  I’m not really sure, but my first response is that we must abolish greed and become spiritual.  Currently, it seems to me that the emphasis is on profit, growth at any price, power, greed and wealth.”

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE.

Terakhir untuk menutup laporan ini saya persembahkan sebuah lelucon wajib di dunia golf

Tiger Woods and Stevie Wonder are in a bar.

Tiger turns to Stevie and says, “How’s the singing career going?”

Stevie replies, “Not too bad. How’s the golf?”

Woods replies, “Not too bad, I’ve had some problems with my swing, but I think I’ve got that right now.”

Stevie says, “I always find that when my swing goes wrong, I need to stop playing for a while and not think about it. Then, the next time I play, it seems to be all right.”

Incredulous, Tiger says, “You play GOLF?”

Stevie says, “Yes, I’ve been playing for years.”

Tiger says, “But – you’re blind! How can you play golf if you can’t see?”

Stevie Wonder replies, “Well, I get my caddy to stand in the middle of the fairway and call to me. I listen for the sound of his voice and play the ball towards him. Then, when I get to where the ball lands, the caddy moves to the green or farther down the fairway, and again I play the ball towards his voice.”

“But how do you putt?” asks Tiger.

“Well,” says Stevie, “I get my caddy to lean down in front of the hole and call to me with his head on the ground and I just play the ball toward his voice.”

Tiger asks, “What’s your handicap?”

Stevie says, “Well, actually – I’m a scratch golfer.”

Woods, incredulous, says to Stevie, “We’ve got to play a round sometime.”

Stevie replies, “Well, people don’t take me seriously, so I only play for money, and never play for less than $10,000 a hole. Is that a problem?”

Woods thinks about it and says, “I can afford that; OK, I’m game for that. $10,000 a hole is fine with me. When would you like to play?”

Stevie Wonder says, “Pick a night.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 22 Oktober 2013

Categories: Uncategorized Tags:

Apakah Kita Akan Mendekati Saat-Saat Ledakan?

October 23rd, 2013 No comments

“Economics, at least in its predictive and prescriptive forms, is not a physical science, notwithstanding the physics envy of many economists. To try to suggest that major policy differences should be formed on the basis of numbers to the right of the decimal point is folly. It is enough at times to get the direction right. North, rather than south. With regard to the present debate, it is clear that a point can be reached at which too much debt is a problem. Is there a bright, unchanging line? This far and no farther? There is not. Water transmutes from solid to liquid to gas. In physics and mathematics, limits – and, indeed, singularities – occur, and we can measure and even predict them. With debt-to-GDP ratios, all we know for now is that the Bang! moment exists. But the precise point for any one given country is not something we can calculate. But wherever that line happens to fall, once it is crossed, Bang! Everything changes. And dear gods, that is a fate to be avoided.”

– F.F. Wiley

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Dalam 11 jam, atau secara rinci adalah 10 jam, 10 menit menjelang tengah malam waktu deadline, DPR AS memperoleh 216 suara yang diperlukan meloloskan RUU Senat untuk menaikkan plafon hutang.

Hanya yang menjadi masalah adalah kita akan menyaksikan lagi proses yang sama 3 bulan mendatang. Menjelang itu, status quo sementara adalah sebagai berikut:

  • Layanan-layanan pemerintahan untuk publik akan dibuka kembali sampai 16 Januari;
  • Plafon hutang dinaikkan hingga 7 Februari, sementara kementrian keuangan diperbolehkan mengambil berbagai langkah darurat untuk menghindari kehabisan dana, yang artinya deadline dari proses yang sama kemudian akan terjadi sekitar April;
  • Diskusi anggaran DPR dan Senat AS harus selesai pada 13 Desember, namun mungkin saja tidak akan dicapai hasil apapun darinya.

Satu hal yang pasti: mayoritas orang-orang mungkin tidak memperhatikan hal-hal yang paling berbahaya yang terucap dalam diskusi plafon hutang kemarin itu.

Lance Roberts dari STA Wealth Management Kamis lalu mencoba menjelaskan lewat artikel yang ditulisnya:

“Today there is a great sense of relief that has swept the nation as news flowed through the media that the government shutdown had come to an end.  After all, during the 16 days of the shutdown, there was great hardship inflicted on the average American as the stock market rose by 2.4%, government workers that were furloughed received a 2+ week paid vacation and interest rates fell from a peak of 2.65% on October 1st to 2.59% on October 17th.  Outside of the financial markets, which were never concerned of a “default,” the reality is that the government shutdown did likely clip up to 0.5% off of 4th quarter’s GDP.  While that clip to economic growth created by the government standoff is temporary – the ongoing persistent weakness of economic growth is another issue entirely.  This is the focus of this discussion.        

The most disturbing sentence uttered during the debt ceiling debate/government shut down, that should raise some concerns by both political parties, is:

“We must increase our debt limit so that we can pay our bills.”

Think about that for a moment.   The U.S. has become the single largest debtor nation on the planet as welfare dependency rises, government spending continues to increase and economic growth slows.  However, what is ironic about this situation is that it is the continuing increases in debt which is directly responsible for the decreases in economic growth.  The chart below shows government debt as a percentage of GDP as compared to annualized rate of change in economic growth.

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Since the beginning of 2009 very little of the increases in government debt, which was used to fill the gap created by excess expenditures, returned very little in terms of economic growth.  In fact, as of the second quarter of 2013, it required $5.61 of debt to create just $1 of economic growth.

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As I discussed recently in “The Long Game Of Hiking The Debt Ceiling:”

The chart below shows the current projected rates of debt to real GDP through 2018 according to the CBO estimates versus the current annual run rate of $1.1 trillion.”

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“At the current rate of debt increase the U.S. will pushing 130% of debt to real GDP by 2018.  This is, of course, not including the funding needs that will ultimately be required to support the increased costs of the entitlement programs of Social Security, Medicare and now the Affordable Care Act (ACA).  The reality is that debt needs will substantially increase as entitlement programs continue to consume ever larger chunks of the current budget.  By 2020 the current welfare programs alone are expected to require 75% of all federal revenues and this does not include the impact of the ACA.  This, of course, is unsustainable.”

Presiden Obama sungguh tepat dalam pidatonya, setelah resolusi untuk shutdown pemerintahan AS, dengan menyatakan bahwa satu dari tiga hal yang harus menjadi fokus pemerintah dalam jangka pendek adalah reformasi anggaran. Langkah saat ini untuk program kesejahteraan mulai dari food stamp hingga tunjangan untuk masyarakat tidak mampu seperti jaminan keamanan dan kesehatan sosial menyebabkan naiknya konsumsi/pengeluaran.  Implementasi program kesejahteraan sosial lebih lanjut hanya akan menekan rasio pendapatan/pengeluaran.

Meskipun presiden Obama mencatat terjadinya penurunan defisit, itu karena meningkatnya pendapatan pajak secara umum yang tercipta dari kekhawatiran fiscal cliff. Karena akhir dari pemasukan dan pembayaran pajak, per 15 Oktober, sudah berlalu maka kita akan kembali menyaksikan peningkatan defisit di AS. Ini disebabkan oleh karena pendapatan pajak biasa jauh dari pengeluaran pemerintah.

Jadi, meskipun pemerintahan AS kembali dibuka, setidaknya dalam 90 hari ke depan, masih akan ada ‘perseteruan’ yang akan lebih hebat nantinya. Sayangnya, hasrat untuk sungguh-sungguh mereformasi anggaran dan belanja tidak besar, karena butuh pengorbanan yang besar untuk fakta yang dinyatakan sebagai berikut: “we have to increase our debt simply to pay our bills.”

Selanjutnya Rob Arnott, yang telah memenangkan 6 penghargaan Graham & Dodd Awards dan juga adalah pimpinan Research Affiliates, belum lama ini menjelaskan kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) mengenai kemana arah Amerika Serikat.

Dia juga mengatakan bahwa apa yang kita lihat saat ini adalah “battle for the soul of a nation”:

“What we really have going on behind the scenes in all of this is a battle for the soul of a nation.  I look on the battle as one in a very, very long string of battles that will continue for years to come.  This deal (which was just announced in Washington) buys a few weeks of peace….

Well, there’s another ferocious negotiation over the size of the debt ceiling and the conditions on which it gets increased.  All of this is in the context of this larger battle.  Ultimately, just as a family has to live within its means, a nation has to live within its means.

The national debt is $17 trillion.  It’s bigger than our GDP.  That’s bad.  But if you add in state and local debt and if you add in the GSEs (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac), now you are approaching $30 trillion — you are about 180% of GDP.  That’s about the same Debt/GDP as Greece.  If you add in unfunded social security, Medicare and Medicaid, we (the US) just recently crossed $100 trillion. 

Now, just to put that number into context, (the US has) $100 trillion of obligations.  How much does the government take in in tax revenues?  A little less than $3 trillion each year.  So, if we take in $2.8 trillion, and we owe $100 trillion, we’ve got a problem.  We owe something on the order of 35 years worth of taxes.  And so we are going to default on a lot of these obligations.”

The Numbers Speak For Themselves

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com dalam laporan singkatnya menunjukkan bahwa hutang AS sudah melebihi $17 trilyun:

“Two days ago, when we described the immediate next steps now that the House had passed the latest debt target ceiling extension, we explained what would happen immediately after as follows: “next up, as the emergency Treasury measures are netted out against the new debt limit, it means that once the new Daily Treasury Statement hits, the total US Federal debt will be just at, or over $17 trillion. Rejoice.” Moments ago the first post-reopening DTS just hit, and it turns out our estimate was low. Because as of yesterday, the official US debt is now 17,075,590,107,963.57 an increase of $327 billion “overnight.”

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We hope this will answer all that hyperventilating questions about how the total US debt can stay fixed at one number since May: basically the Treasury had utilized over $320 billion in emergency measures, and now they have been netted out against the “temporarily” suspended debt limit.

Of course, we are confident this number will figure far less prominently among tomorrow’s mainstream media papers, especially when the great unemployed masses and the 46 million on food stamps have another record number, that of the stock market, to be distracted with.”

Kesimpulan

Jumat lalu, seorang milyuner bernama Eric Sprott menanyakan, terkait dengan bahaya kebangkrutan, sebagai berikut, “as human beings, how is everyone going to survive?”

Kemudian dia menambahkan, “It’s a scary prospect.”

Di bawah ini adalah penjelasan Sprott, yang juga adalah pimpinan Sprott Asset Management, dalam sebuah wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com):

“The United States is already insolvent.  They announced their own GAAP budget deficit, which was $6 trillion last year.  $6 trillion!  They (only) had revenues of $3 (trillion).  And the combined debt and entitlements is now $60 – $70 trillion.

Now, can you expect somebody with $3 trillion of annual revenue to be able to deal with $60 trillion of debt?  It’s impossible.  So, mathematically it’s over….

I compare it to what’s happened in Detroit, where 10  years ago we knew they were broke, and finally, one day they said they were ‘broke.’  The outcome of that was they told the pensioner, ‘You can only get 33 cents on the dollar.’  And the same will happen to the US (pensioners).

What happens when someone’s (social security or pension) check falls by 50% or 60%?  The economic chaos that will ensue will be unbelievable.  But it’s going to happen.  It’s so clear cut there is nothing that can be done about it.  The whole world has this huge debt problem.  If you have this view that the countries are insolvent, what does it mean for all of us?  I’m talking about, as human beings, how is everyone going to survive?  It’s a scary prospect.

We don’t have enough jobs and income to support the profligate governments that we have.  We just don’t have enough.  The disposable personal income and wages keep going down.  We have 50 million people on food stamps, and we get 10,000 people a day retiring.  Anybody, mathematically, can tell you we can’t afford it.

What do we cut first?  So far in the US they have cut nothing.  It’s interesting, by analogy, even in Canada, which has a pension fund, people under 35 have already been told that they can’t retire until they are 67.  We (Canadians) know we don’t have enough, and we have a fund with money in it.  In the US there is no fund.  They pretend that there is some fund there, but there is literally nothing in the fund.  So there are going to be some (horrific) consequences down the line.”

Agar tetap ceria, berikut gambar dari William Banzai yang berjudul MR HYPoCRiTe, dan humor sepanjang masa tentang plafon hutang:

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Nic-61

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 21 Oktober 2013

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Harga Emas Akan Melesat Terbang?

October 21st, 2013 No comments

“The Fed is aware that it cannot ever allow interest rates to significantly rise without destroying housing, stocks and the economy. Therefore, this dangerous cocktail of low interest rates, continuous and massive money creation from the Fed and intractable government debt will be in place for a very long time. Unfortunately, those factors taken together will eventually bring to fruition runaway inflation and economic chaos that the perma-bull crowd on Wall Street and Washington have summarily declared vanquished. Once investors become aware that the economy has become completely addicted to the provisions of perpetually low interest rates and central bank asset purchases, the gold market will then resume another leg higher in its secular bull market and eclipse its all-time record high soon thereafter.”

– Michael Pento, President & Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies

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“’The bigger the base, the higher in space’, runs an old stock market saying. Another version is, ‘the longer the wait, the bigger the break’.”

– Dominic Frisby, MoneyWeek

Seperti Anda tahu, belakangan ini saya belum menyinggung tentang produk investasi yang merupakan salah satu favorit saya, yakni logam mulia secara umum atau emas secara spesifik.

Mungkin di antara Anda ada yang mempertanyakan mengapa? Karena, dalam pandangan saya, yang tentunya bisa saja keliru, rally emas di musim panas yang mendorong harga spot-nya dari $1179 di akhir Juni hingga $1434 pada Agustus lalu hampir (mendekati) akan selesai.

Meskipun terjadi kenaikan harian yang besar dan sungguh mengesankan pada Kamis kemarin, ke $1324, masih belum cukup mengubah smaller downtrend yang terbentuk sebulan terakhir ini.

Yang perlu Anda ketahui hari ini adalah sungguh sederhana: harga emas bergerak turun sepanjang tahun 2013 ini dan para seller masih menjadi pengendalinya secara mayoritas.

Emas masih akan mengalami tekanan terlebih dahulu, dan baru setelah itu mungkin kita secara hati-hati dapat melihat kemungkinan kenaikannya.

Jangan tertipu dengan pikiran bahwa emas sudah mencapai bottom dari tekanannya. Karena itu akan memakan waktu yang lama sebelum tekanan jual berhenti …

Namun demikian, untuk jangka panjang (antara 3-5 tahun), Saya masih yakin bahwa emas akan menjadi salah satu investasi dengan return yang MENJANJIKAN.

Itulah alasan saya hari ini akan membahas faktor-faktor fundamental untuk memiliki emas.

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com telah membuat sejumlah laporan luar biasa mengenai emas belum lama ini, mengenai perlunya menginvestasikan setidaknya sebagian kecil dari uang kita ke dalam emas.

Berikut 4 laporan terbarunya dengan sejumlah grafik menarik, yang menunjukkan betapa murahnya harga emas:

1)     “Nobody Knows What The F**k Is Going On…” (September 13th)

      Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

Financial circles in Hong Kong are buzzing today on the new Goldman Sachs projection that gold may drop below $1,000 an ounce.

And in merely suggesting such a death sentence for the metal, Goldman’s pronouncement pushed the paper price of gold contracts down $20+.

Many technical indicators underscore Goldman’s views. There’s very little floor for gold prices below $1,200, signaling that gold could gap down quickly.

Conventional wisdom is also moving against precious metals. Newspaper headlines are telling us that emerging markets are toast (India, Indonesia, Brazil) while the developed economies (US, Europe, Japan) are on the mend.

Of course, the facts don’t really support this.

  • Unemployment in much of southern Europe continues to soar, and Greece is imminently in need of yet another bailout.
  • The Japanese government’s most recent budget numbers indicate payments on the national debt totaling 22.2 trillion yen, which constitutes 51.5% of the government’s 43 trillion yen tax revenue.
  • In the Land of the Free, the US government is just a few weeks away from defaulting. Again.

Since May, in fact, the US Treasury Department has resorted to ‘extraordinary measures’ to keep the debt level firm at $16.7 trillion (the current debt ceiling) by using clever accounting tricks and confiscating funds from other sources.

As soon as the debt ceiling is raised, however, the national debt in the US will soar once again as these accounting tricks are unwound and reflected on the balance sheet.

For whatever reason, though, few people are paying attention to facts. It’s all about sentiment. And the sentiment right now is that the rich Western economies are back on top.

This is the central thesis underpinning Goldman’s assessment on gold: since the US economy is out of the woods, there’s no longer a need for gold as a risk hedge.

But as my friend told me last night over drinks, “Nobody knows what the f**k is going on…”

He’s a senior-level manager at a major international investment bank, and fully expects the banking system to go under again.

I thought about his candid remarks this morning when I read Goldman’s projection on gold.

But it does beg the question– is it time to get out of precious metals? After all, the momentum is moving in that direction.

Well, if you buy gold hoping to sell it at some point in the future and receive more fiat currency than you paid, then you might as well get out. Gold is not a great speculation right now.

Think about it like this– and take ‘gold’ out of the equation. If the market for widgets had risen 10, 11, 12 years in a row, and had shattered all records for long-term performance, would you still be betting on a rise?

Probably not. Just like housing (which everyone thought would go up forever), gold’s nominal paper price can fall. And it makes far more sense to speculate on something that’s in the dumps right now.

However, this mentality entirely misses the point of precious metals.

Why buy gold hoping to gain more paper currency down the road? Owning gold is all about trading away your paper currency into something that cannot be conjured out of thin air by central banks.

When stored properly (holding physical gold overseas and/or anonymously), there is very little counterparty risk.

The “price” in paper currency may rise. Or it may fall. But this is largely irrelevant.

When the hopes and dreams of the entire global financial system rest on the lies of politicians, the whims of central bankers, and the mountains of debt they have all accumulated, things could turn on a dime… tomorrow.

Gold is an insurance policy. It’s a form of money that you might never need to use. But should that need ever arise, you’ll be so much better off for owning it.

2)     On The “Lunatics At The Fed” Bill Fleckenstein Warns “As The Fantasy Dies, Gold Will Soar” (September 16th)

“Right now, people continue to believe that the same idiots that created all of these problems, namely the central banks, are going to somehow get us out of it with the exact same policies that got us into it,” is the subtle manner in which the outspoken Bill Fleckenstein describes the ‘fantasy’ in which most Americans live during this wide-reaching interview. “We’ve had so much artificial stimulus, and we’ve misallocated so much capital;” he adds, warning that Americans “believe in the lunatics at the Fed, and the rest of the Western world is that way (as well).” His conclusion is clear, “as the fantasy dies, then they will understand the need to own gold,” and if the Fed tapers and is forced to un-Taper, “more people will see that the Fed is trapped.”

Via King World News,

         How will the economy handle higher rates?

“It’s not going to handle it.  That’s why if the Fed tapers and the bonds start acting funny, they will end tapering because they will start thinking, ‘Geez, we can’t have this happen.’

Then, more people will see that the Fed is trapped.

      Via SHFTPlan blog,

Right now, people continue to believe that the same idiots that created all of these problems, namely the central banks, are going to somehow get us out of it with the exact same policies that got us into it, only at a much higher (aggressive) level of pursuing those policies.

We’ve had so much artificial stimulus, and we’ve misallocated so much capital.  And over the couple of decades we’ve been doing this we’ve kind of broken the economy and the financial system.  So, I don’t think you can worry about what’s on the other side.  We haven’t even gotten people to understand the charade that we have.

What the masses have done over and over again is to believe one more time that it’s all going to be OK … We are in a unique moment in history.  The whole world is printing confetti, and (yet) people seem to think that’s going to work out fine.

The longer you keep pursuing insane policies, the more you pile (them) on top of each other, the worse it gets … So, when the Fed can’t print money and we have to deal with this, it’s going to be brutal.

The fact of the matter is Americans, in the aggregate, don’t see any reason to own metal.  They believe in the lunatics at the Fed, and the rest of the Western world is that way (as well).  Obviously Asia doesn’t quite see it that way.  But it’s understandable why the average American doesn’t buy gold — If they believe in a fantasy, why would they need it?

As the fantasy dies, then they will understand the need to own gold.

3)     JPMorgan Says “Buy Gold” (September 21st)

The FOMC shocked markets by deciding not to slow its large-scale asset purchase program, after all the signals it had sent out in previous months that it would do so. While increasing policy risk, JPMorgan notes, this puts the asset-reflation trades back on the table. In their view, the main driver of gold’s performance over the past five years has been QE. As QE continued and inflation expectations remained subdued, the demand for an inflation hedge subsided, ETF positions were unwound and gold prices fell. However, JPM now believes, as a result of the Fed’s volte-face on tapering, uncertainty about future inflation may pick up and suggest a long position in gold. Of course, the question is – are they buying or is this a last ditch effort to drain what little remaining gold they have in their vault to their hapless clients?

JPMorgan On Gold:

This week’s surprise by the Fed in not tapering their asset purchases led to a 5% rally in precious metals. In our view, the main driver of gold’s performance over the past five years has been QE. Following the 2008 crisis, the unprecedented expansion of central bank balance sheets led to fears of inflation further down the road and resulted in very strong demand for gold, a large amount of which came via ETFs.

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As QE continued and inflation expectations remained subdued, this demand for an inflation hedge subsided, ETF positions were unwound and gold prices fell. Along with precious metals rallying, inflation breakevens widened following the Fed announcement, another indication that uncertainty around future inflation may pick up as a result of the Fed’s volte-face on tapering.

Additionally, positions are much cleaner now, following the unwinding of ETF positions, and physical demand from retail buyers in Asia has been very strong.

We open a long position in gold.

      Policy Risk Up.

      …

In one dramatic move, Mr. Bernanke has reversed this steady march to a rule-based policy and has brought discretion and flexibility back. The Fed may argue it never really gave up discretion, but we think the market nevertheless saw increased rigidity and thus a greater risk of policy errors.

By bringing back discretion, the economy broadly, rather than just unemployment, has retaken precedence. This has reduced economic uncertainty. To use popular terms, the Bernanke Put and asset reflation are back, while the end-of-easy money trade needs to await better economic data.

Some other relative-value charts for gold…

The Debt-Ceiling appears to have an uncanny relationship with the precious metal – the relationship should be clear why an ever-increasing debt load for the world’s reserve currency would require a rising gold price to keep pace with its endgame-implying collapse…

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And the world’s central banks are printing – not just the Fed – and the world’s central banks know that they need some anchor of value for their balance sheets. The ratio of global central bank balance sheets to the price of gold (i.e. how much gold is required to support the balance sheets of the world’s money-printers) appears to be at an extreme.

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In other words, for the ‘stable’ relationship between central bank balance sheets and gold to recouple, Gold would need to be back to around $1800 an ounce; but given the Fed’s U-turn and no sign of stopping at the BoJ (or PBOC for that matter) and we suspect Draghi about to try to unleash a collateral-free LTRO3, the price of gold will have to be considerably higher before the world’s central banks are ‘backed’ again.

4)     China Imports Over 2,000 Tons Of Gold In Last Two Years (October 13th)

China has just one thing to say to all those who engage in the now daily slam downs of gold just around the time of the London fixing, after 8 am Eastern, which lately have gotten so vicious they have resulted in “stop logic” market halts not on one but at least two occasions, keeping the price of gold delightfully low for all those who instead of selling, are looking to buy: “thanks.”

As the chart below shows, in the past two years since September 2011 (ironically the same month we wrote “Wikileaks Discloses The Reason(s) Behind China’s Shadow Gold Buying Spree” namely that the PBOC was quietly seeking to make the renminbi the new gold-backed reserve currency) the mainland has imported an unprecedented 2,116 gross tons of gold from Hong Kong (in addition to the hundreds of tons produced domestically), for the first time crossing the 2k gross ton import barrier in a two year period!

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Focusing on just the most recent import data for the month of August, seemingly unaware that all expert, hedge funds in the US have been “capitulating” on gold just because the momentum trade is no longer there, and because it somehow makes more sense to buy gold when the price is high rather than low, shows that China imported 131.4 gross tons of gold in the month, a 146% increase compared to a year prior, when the price of gold was substantially higher. Indeed, in a “shocking” turn of events, China actually buys more physical gold when the price is lower than higher. So much more, in fact, that August was the second highest gold importing month in history, lower only compared to March when it imported an unprecedented 223.5 tons.

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But what about exports of gold, and China’s net monthly gold needs. The chart below should answer that particular question. Net of gold export to Hong Kong, China imported 110.5 tons, the second highest net number in history, and second once again, only to March’s 136.2 tons. Year to date, China has imported a gross 997 tons, and a net 741 tons. Since this accounts for just two-thirds of the year in the history books, on a gross and net basis, China will likely import over 1500 gross and over 1000 net tons for all of 2013: an absolutely stunning record in gold demand by just one nation.

24des7Finally, putting all this feverish gold accumulation in perspective, here is the latest amount of official Chinese gold holdings as per the IMF. Incidentally, this is a number that has not been “updated” since April 2009.

24des8The unofficial China gold holdings number since 2009 based on our internal calculations: about 2500 tons higher, which would make it the world’s second largest official gold holder below the US and surpassing Germany, and rising at 100 tons per month.

Source: HK Census Dept

What Do the Charts Say?

Ada dua alasan mengapa saya berpikir summer rally emas akan berakhir.

Pertama, emas hingga saat ini masih gagal mengatasi level-level puncak Agustus.

Kedua, emas masih belum mampu mengoptimalkan rally belakangan ini meskipun dolar AS menunjukkan tekanan.

Jadi secara keseluruhan, kita masih akan melihat potensi penurunan besar harga emas.

Di sisi lain, kita perlu melihat jika emas mampu bertahan di atas $1300 dalam beberapa pekan ke depan, bisa saja akan mendorong kebangkitannya.

Namun untuk saat ini, hal tersebut terlihat berat. Yang jelas untuk saat ini BELUM saatnya untuk terlalu optimis …

Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective untuk beberapa waktu masih berpandangan bearish terhadap emas. Berikut penjelasannya dalam laporan terbarunya edisi Oktober 2013:

“Gold completed an A-B-C rally at $1,434.05 on August 28. This countertrend push was enough to revive the cadre of gold bulls, as indicated by a jump in the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) to 87% bulls.

Why Gold is Making a Comeback

– AP, Aug. 30, 2013

Artikel adalah headline AP tertanggal 30 Agustus yang mengatakan peningkatan demand emas di India dan Cina, yang akan menjadi faktor kenaikan harga emas berlanjut.

Namun saat artikel tersebut dipublikasi, harga sudah berada di titik akhir dari wave (4) dan mulai masuk ke wave (5) turun, yang potensial akan menekan harga emas ke bawah $1100.

Perhatikan bagaimana wave (4) bertemu dengan the lower line of the channel yang ditarik dari tahun 2005 sebelum mengalami reversal.

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“This is a common occurrence after a trend line break. The rally simultaneously touched the upper trend line of an A-B-C zigzag, a combination of resistance that stopped the advance cold.

While not expected, a push above the August 28 high would change the short-term wave structure but not the overall bearish trend, which is denoted by the wave labels on the chart.”

Catatan Pribadi: Saya juga memproyeksikan harga emas akan berlanjut turun, pada akhirnya akan menuju ke areal $1000-$1100, yang adalah complete retracement dari akselerasi rally tahun 2010-2011 saat mencapai rekornya mendekati areal $2000.

Kesimpulan

Menurut saya tema buying on extreme weakness akan dominan dalam beberapa pekan ke depan.

Sampai harga emas break down atau menyelesaikan pola penurunannya dan memberikan konfirmasi market bottom, saya akan sangat waspada melakukan perdagangan.

Dan yang terakhir adalah dari Jeff Clark, seorang Editor di BIG GOLD, yang menjelaskan pada para investor di awal bulan lalu: the gold bull market is not over, sebagai berikut:

A bullish response to the correction. Stampeding to buy an asset that’s crashing in price is not the kind of behavior associated with a trend that is over—just the opposite, in fact. Clearly, most bullion investors around the world see the corrections in gold as a sale, including China and other Asian nations.

Long-term buyers vs. short-term sellers. Someone who buys a paper form of gold typically has a short-term time horizon in mind. What have many of them been doing? Selling. The investor who buys actual physical metal, meanwhile, tends to have a longer-term time frame. And what are they doing? Buying.

Lack of physical selling. It’s not just the tremendous amount of buying that’s taking place; it’s still very difficult to find any significant amount of selling by holders of physical metal. This adds strength to what we’re seeing from long-term investors.

Don’t be fooled by what happened in the futures market. The retreat in the gold price is a buying opportunity for physical metal. And those who do so will be in strong company.

The bottom line for me can be summed up by Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association: “The dumping recently of holdings in gold exchange-traded products by overseas investors may not prove to be a wise move.”

Indeed. Let’s follow the bull within the bear and take advantage of the current sale.”

Di akhir tulisan ini dan di akhir pekan ini, agar tetap ceria, berikut adalah catatan lucu dari proses pemikiran politik:

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 18 Oktober 2013

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