Archive for February, 2014

Permintaan Emas Cina Tidak Akan Pernah Berhenti

February 19th, 2014 No comments

“We believe that the resolution of the disconnect between paper and physical gold will be a dramatic upside re-pricing of the real thing. Most important is the steady migration of physical gold bars held in Western vaults to China and other parts of Asia, where they seem unlikely to be returned, other than for exorbitant ransom.”

– John Hathaway: 07 January 2014


“Gold is the wild card. The gold price and investor positioning today reflects near unanimous negative sentiment on gold’s prospects, based on expected higher global interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar as the U.S. economy recovers. Any disappointment to this scenario will likely drive the gold price higher, making it one of the better hedges against the risk the U.S. economic recovery falters.”

– Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy for ETF Securities


Paper gold (investasi emas di pasar finansial) di negara-negara maju mungkin bergerak berdasarkan keinginan-keinginan para pemburu keuntungan, namun ketika investasi di pasar emas fisik dan minat Cina terhadapnya, maka satu kata yang menggambarkan pergerakannya adalah: unstoppable.

Di awal laporan ini, mari kita simak dengan seksama komentar salah seorang yang memiliki proyeksi akurat untuk pergerakan harga emas, seperti yang dijelaskannya dalam wawancara dengan King World News ( belum lama ini.

Di bawah ini adalah yang dikatakan oleh William Kaye, yang 25 tahun lalu bekerja di Goldman Sachs di bagian mergers and acquisitions, berupa keyakinannya mengenai apa yang sedang terjadi di pasar emas dan bagaimana potensi harganya ke depan:

“The longer-term picture (for gold) is extremely bright.  The picture in China itself is phenomenal.  Right now China is, in terms of final demand, consuming virtually 100% of non-China global production of gold.  This is an amazing thing when you think about it….

China doesn’t export anything.  [People] need to think about that.  Chinese production is estimated at slightly over 400 metric tons (each year), which is not huge, but they don’t export that (gold).  All of that (gold) by law belongs to the People’s Bank of China, and if my sources are right, doesn’t even go through Shanghai.

Everything that is brought into China that isn’t produced domestically, and doesn’t go directly to the PBOC, is required by law in China to go through Shanghai.  So if we track deliveries into Shanghai, final deliveries into the market were almost 2,200 tons last year.

Well, since China’s production is a little over 400 tons, and total global production is estimated at between 2,600 and 2,700 tons, what that tells you is that China accounted for approximately 100% of all external (global gold) production — all non-China production.

So where is everything else coming from (to fill the rest of global gold demand)?  Where is the 1,200 tons that, including smuggling, went into India?  How about all of the gold that went into Russia and into the Middle-East?  This is what people need to focus on.

And this is why what we are currently seeing can’t continue indefinitely.  The question is, at what stage does gold actually get liberated?  The setup would appear, as I look at the options structure and other things, that the bottom should be either late this quarter or possibly second quarter.  I’m doubtful that it can extend past that unless the setup changes dramatically from what I am looking at at the moment.”

I think for people who have enough money to live on, they’ve got cash and other assets they can draw on, that are looking for a deeply undervalued investment that has potentially a very high payoff over the next 1, 2, 3, 5 years, gold and precious metals are, in my book, unparalleled.  That’s how we’re set up.  This is something we’ve researched very carefully, and this is where I’ve got my own money.”

Selanjutnya Tyler Durden dari yang juga sering melaporkan demand Cina terhadap emas.

Berikut adalah 2 laporannya belum lama ini, yang tentunya layak Anda perhatikan:

1)   Overheard In A Gold Vault In Singapore: “We Need Additional Capacity”, China’s Appetite Is “Insatiable” (January 28th)

Yesterday we covered the supply side of the gold market from the perspective of global mints, which were kind enough to advise that they “can’t meet the demand, even if we work overtime.” Today, courtesy of Bloomberg, we take a closer look at the demand aspect of the physical gold market, which as most know by now can be described with just one word: China.

But first, while we already know that global mints are working 24/7 and still are unable to meet record demand, in spite of or due to, plunging prices of paper gold, here is how the market looks from the perspective of one of the biggest gold refiners in the world: MKS SA’s PAMP refiner in Switzerland, “whose bullion sales to China surged to a record as demand rose for coins, bars and jewelry. PAMP Managing Director Mehdi Barkhordar, who credited China’s “insatiable” appetite for a sales boost of as much as 20 percent last year, remains optimistic even as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows. “The demand in China is off its peak, but still respectable,” he said last week.”

Off its peak? Really – where? Certainly not in Singapore where the largest provider of precious-metals logistics and storage, Brink’s, is adding room on top of a vault the company opened in 2012 at the Singapore Freeport building next to Changi International Airport, with a sleek, modernist lobby and a twisting, polished-steel sculpture by Ron Arad that stands 5 meters high. Inside, the gold bars are protected by prison-like barriers, two body scanners and 8-ton, fireproof gates.

      Explain to us how this is “off its peak”:

“We need additional capacity, so we have to take further space,” said Baskaran Narayanan, the 45-year-old Singapore general manager for Richmond, Virginia-based Brink’s. “There’s a surge in demand for precious metals in Asia, and one can see the focus and movement from the west to the east.”

A new Brink’s vault in Singapore set to open by March will be the company’s fifth in the city state, said Narayanan, who spent two decades in the security industry. The 154-year-old company also is adding space in Hong Kong and mainland China to meet growing storage demand, said Guy Bullen, the firm’s senior vice president for the Asia-Pacific region. Brink’s said Asia-Pacific revenue grew 12 percent to $128.9 million in the first nine months of 2013, more than any other region. Deutsche Bank said in June it started a storage facility in Singapore that can hold as much as 200 tons, its largest outside London. UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, opened one to keep bars for its wealth-management clients in Asia. In Shanghai, Malca-Amit Global Ltd. opened a vault in November that can store 2,000 tons, or a pile valued at $80 billion.

      Oh, that kind of “off its peak” – we get it now.

Of course, the biggest paradox is that China continues to be grateful to the US momentum-investing community, which continues to dump paper-gold representations such as the GLD ETF, and as Bloomberg reports, “investor sales through gold ETPs wiped $73.4 billion from the value of the funds last year and holdings reached the lowest since October 2009 this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETP and which is listed in New York, accounted for 64 percent of global sales last year.” And as a result of the ongoing liquidation of paper gold, those who couldn’t care less about monthly or annual momentum-boosted P&L (so eliminate the entire US hedge fund community), and just care about buying brick after brick of physical gold at the lowest possible prices are thanking their lucky stars they have a bunch of dumb 2 and 20 chasing paper sellers to do their job for them, especially if and when the PBOC does announce the real amount of gold reserves it has accumulate over the past five years (which are now order of magnitude above the official ~1000 tons of gold last disclosed in 2009).

So going back to the Chinese demand, and the entire topic of west to east gold migration, here is what we know.

“In the western world, we’ve enjoyed a popular bull market in gold, mainly via the gold ETFs, and it appears to be over,” Morris said. “In China, there are a large number of new outlets, including many banks in the provinces, that are selling gold bars. Many Chinese people, who’ve had limited access to gold in the past, think it’s a good idea to have a bar or two as a long-term investment.”

The U.K. shipped 1,291 tons to the refining hub of Switzerland last year through November, more than the previous seven years combined and equal to more than five months of mine output, according to data from European Union statistics service Eurostat and Barclays Plc. Macquarie Group Ltd. says that’s a sign of the movement from west to east.

      And once in Switzerland, the gold is refined, processed and sold onward to…

Hong Kong exported a record 1,108.8 tons to China in 2013, more than double the total in 2012, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Mainland China doesn’t publish the data.

Consumer purchases of gold in China surged 30 percent in the 12 months through September to 996.3 tons, overtaking demand in India, where usage gained 24 percent to 977.6 tons, the World Gold Council estimates. In the first nine months of 2013, China was at 797.8 tons, already eclipsing its full-year record of 778.6 tons, set in 2011, and full-year usage may exceed India’s all-time high 1,006.5 tons in 2010.

Oh, that “off the peak.”  Ok then. And let’s not forget that while Chinese gold demand is at an absolutely all time record high (and thank you BIS operative Benoit Gilson and Mikael Charoze for those well-timed gold slams), another place that is just waiting for the opportunity to buy as much gold as it legally can is the former larget gold buyer in the world – India.

India’s government choked off inbound shipments by raising import taxes on gold three times last year to help pare a trade imbalance that has weighed on the national currency, the rupee. The 24 percent rise in Indian jewelry, bar and coin purchases to 977.6 tons in the 12 months through September lagged the 30 percent gain to 996.3 tons in China, the gold council said.

How much latent demand is there? A lot: ‘Premiums in India reached a record $160 above the London price in December.” In fact, demand is so great even with restrictions, that refiners have been forced to add work shifts! Nobody complaining about raising the minimum wage here…

“India will consume gold for a long, long time because, for the Indian farmer, gold is one of his best assets,” said Barkhordar, who runs the PAMP refinery in Switzerland. “He will keep this gold for his daughter’s dowry, but he can also use it in case he’s short of cash for the next crop.”

The surge in orders meant some parts of the refinery worked three shifts instead of the usual two, Barkhordar said. It takes five to six working days to turn mined or scrap gold into a bar, he said. The 200 or so employees at the 110,000-square-foot PAMP facility, located about 3 miles from the Argor-Heraeus SA and Valcambi SA refineries, make bars ranging from 0.3 gram to 12.5 kilograms.

And finally, there is the biggest wildcard of all: the Arabs, who have untold wealth in fiat and otherwise electronic format that one day soon, supposedly before the markets crash and the western central banks lose control, need protection.

Trade also has expanded in Dubai. The emirate accounts for about 25 percent of global physical gold trading, and bullion demand grew eightfold in the past six to 10 years, said Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange Chief Executive Officer Gary Anderson. The DGCX plans to list a spot gold contact this year to add to its futures offering.

The bottom line comes from Jeremy East, who moved to Hong Kong from London in June and is head of metals trading at Standard Chartered Plc. “Many of the positive drivers for gold prices in the past five years have started to disappear. At the same time, we have seen a significant increase in physical demand for gold in Asia, especially China. The expectation is that Asia is going to play a much bigger role for setting the international prices for gold and also for the whole metals complex going forward.”

Of course it will, but for now it is counting its lucky stars that courtesy of ETFs, the BIS and various central and private banks desperate to make their worthless pieces of fiat paper appear valuable by manipulating the price of gold lower, it can accumulate gold at such a torrid pace and at such blue light special prices. It knows very well this won’t last. However, in the meantime it will remove as much deliverable product from the paper gold market that when the real delivery demands begin (wink wink Bundesbank), then the real fun starts.



2)   China Surpasses India As Biggest Buyer Of Gold Following Record 2013 Imports, Consumption (February 10th)

Two weeks ago we learned what many had already known just by extrapolating simple trends: in 2013 Chinese net imports of gold from Hong Kong alone rose to over 1000 tons of gold, or 1158 to be precise – 100 tons more than China’s official gold holdings of 1054 tons which have not “budged” in the past four years – following another significant net monthly import of 94.8 tons of the precious metal in December (and 126.6 gross). This means total gold imports in 2013 was more than double the 557 tons imported in 2012, and as a result China has now officially surpassed India as the world’s biggest buyer of gold (although the title may swing back to India once gold price controls are relaxed, or if the government were to count all the gold smuggled into the country via illegal channels).

As the chart below shows, no matter what the price of paper gold does, the Chinese bid remains unwavering.


Reuters summarizes China’s insatiable appetite for the yellow metal:

China’s gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tons for the first time, an industry body said on Monday, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion.

The demand surge has helped China become the No. 1 gold consumer and should support prices, which took a hit last year from expectations of a tapering of commodities-friendly economic stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a drop in demand in the other major buyer India.

Gold consumption in China grew to 1,176.40 tons last year, with jewellery demand climbing 43 percent to 716.50 tons and bullion demand soaring 57 percent to 375.73 tons, the China Gold Association said on its website.

Chinese demand hit a record as gold prices fell for the first time in 13 years amid an improving global economy and a rally in equities. Prices tumbled 28 percent in 2013.

“The sharply lower prices attracted a lot of Chinese consumers looking for bargains,” said Chen Min, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in Shenzhen.

“Gold will continue to be an attractive investment in China in the near term as prices look steady near $1,200 an ounce,” Chen said.

      As a reminder, official gold holdings are not included in these numbers:

China’s gold consumption figures do not include demand from the central bank, whose gold reserves stand at 33.89 million ounces (1,054 tons), unchanged since April 2009, according to the latest figures on the central bank’s website.

Regarding said PBOC gold holdings, Reuters confirms what our readers have known since September 2011:

China last announced a rise in its gold reserves in April 2009 and has not revised the figure since, though there had been recent market speculation that the bank had been accumulating gold reserves and would announce a new figure.

Of course, we doubt anyone would be surprised by the unveiling of any updated PBOC holdings especially after one considers just how ravenous China’s gross imports since our September 2011 article have been, summarized best by the following chart.


As we have said before: keep an eye on the “gold holdings” of the GLD and other US paper gold ETFs, whose drop in holdings for now has offset Chinese accumulation on the margin. Once GLD gold holdings solidly resume their climb higher, that will be the key upward gold price inflection point.


What Do the Charts Say?

Macneil Curry dari BofAML belum lama ini menyebut bahwa gold is coming to life:


Via BofAML’s Macneil Curry,

Gold breaks pivotal resistance


Across assets gold has been the lead market against the US $; having forged its base back in mid December. Now, it has broken above its 150d average (1295) for the 1st time since Jan’13. This average has been an excellent barometer of the medium term trend and points to further gains. We target the confluence of resistance between 1355/1374 and potentially beyond.


Meskipun terjadi breakout (MA-150 hari) dari kenaikan harga emas sejak pekan lalu, laporan bulanan dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective masih meyakini bahwa emas masih dalam sentimen bearish besarnya.

Oleh karena itu, kewaspadaan sungguh diperlukan saat ini dan saya sarankan agar para investor jangan dulu mengejar kenaikan harga emas ini.

Di bawah ini pandangan terbaru dari Elliott Wave International mengenai perkembangan harga emas:

“Gold has declined 35% from its September 2011 peak at $1,921.50 and continues to move in line with our forecast.

In November and December, GMP discussed the large investment losses incurred by hedge funds and governments, some of whom bet heavily on a gold rally to new all-time highs.

Gold’s decline last year has forced the Swiss National Bank, one of the world’s biggest holders of the metal, to cancel dividends to shareholders for the first time since the Bank was founded in 1907, 107 years ago.

The Swiss central bank said on January 6 that the precious metal’s selloff created a $10 billion loss for the year.

The December issue of EWT noted that gold sentiment has changed.

Still, our forecast remains on track: gold’s bear market is not complete.

The wave labels on the chart show the two high-probability potentials for prices in the coming months.

If wave (5) down started at the August 28 high at $1,434, gold will soon decline to new lows in the final wave of the impulse structure that started at the 2011 peak.

Another possibility is that wave (4) could be tracing out a triangle.

Under this scenario, wave C started at the December 31 low at $1,184.23 and will carry gold to $1,300-$1.350.

Both structures indicate that gold needs one more new low.

Thereafter, the largest countertrend rally since the peak will develop.”



Emas masih bergerak dari negara-negara barat ke timur, bahkan cnderung bergerak lebih cepat karena Cina diberi umpan oleh turunnya harga emas di pasar ETF serta mulai adanya produksi baru dari tambang-tambang global.

Ketika para investor barat sadar mengenai fakta bahwa jika Cina terus membeli emas di tengah penurunan harganya – bahkan tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda akan mengakhirinya – maka akan hilang emas fisik di pasar-pasar tradisional, karena semuanya sudah diserap Cina dan konsumen-konsumen Asia lainnya.

Dan jika kemudian terjadi kenaikan harga besar-besaran, maka itulah yang menjadi penyebabnya!

Namun demikian, emas saat ini masih dalam downtrend-nya selama masih di bawah level $1525.

Masih banyak waktu yang diperlukan emas untuk menembus resistance pentingnya itu. Untuk indikasi awal, jika kenaikan mampu menembus ke atas $1434 maka menunjukkan perubahan tren, seperti yang dapat Anda lihat dengan jelas di grafik Tom Fitzpatrick (analis Citi) berikut:


Sebaliknya, waspadai ada daily close di bawah $1180 yang akan memberikan sinyal bahwa downtrend masih akan berlanjut dan akan membawa harga pada bagian akhir dari koreksi tahunan emas dengan target $1000-$1100.

Juga perlu diingat bahwa data Commitment of Traders menunjukkan bahwa para investor kian meningkatkan short position emas di pasar berjangka dan long-position spekulan sudah mencapai tertinggi sejak akhir Oktober 2013.

Ini mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga emas ini sedang menghadapi resistance kuat.

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah dolar AS biasanya memperoleh dukungan musiman hingga musim panas.

Jika gejolak di pasar negara berkembang berlanjut lagi, maka akan mendorong penguatan dolar AS karena dana spekulatif akan kembali ke pasar AS.

Dan biasanya penguatan dolar AS dapat menghambat kenaikan harga emas.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!


Dibuat Tanggal 18 Februari 2014

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Sudah Saatnya Membeli Emas?

February 18th, 2014 No comments

“Never buy gold for a profit, gold is a measure of wealth. Count your gold holdings in the number of ounces, not the current worth in dollars. You don’t price the home you live in every day, or with each passing week. Nor should you price your gold holdings in dollars with each passing day. Gold is a timeless wealth asset; an asset that will have a value with the passing of time. Remember this: Of the original issues that made up the Industrial Average, only one remains. And that stock is General Electric. And what happened to all the rest? In investing, nothing is permanent except gold. But remember, do not buy gold with the idea of making a profit. Buy gold because it is pure wealth, and may be the last man standing.”

– Richard Russell


“While gold declined last year, that consolidation came on the heels of 12 consecutive years of increasing demand and value growth. With lots of uncertainty still on the horizon, now is not the time for your investment portfolio to be caught with its pants down. Be shrewd and diversify with gold. Now is the time to be diversified. Gold provides liquidity and is a strong investment to protect and grow wealth. Being too giddy with equities and not holding some gold in your portfolio can make your hair turn grey when financial markets go south.”

– Donald W. Doyle, CEO of Blanchard & Company


Sepanjang tahun 2014 ini, emas berperforma baik.

Harganya terus naik hingga ke areal tertinggi yang dicapai November 2013 lalu, seperti Anda dapat lihat di grafik di bawah ini.


Dari level terendah jelang perayaan Tahun Baru lalu, di $1181/troy ounce, hingga penutupan Jumat akhir pekan kemarin di $1320, kenaikannya sudah mencapai hampir $140 atau sekitar 12%.

Oleh karenanya, saya kira Anda pasti akan bertanya-tanya apakah sentimen bearish (atau tren penurunannya) sudah berakhir.

Menurut definisi ‘resminya’, sentimen bearish adalah tekanan/penurunan harga suatu aset pasar sebesar 20% dari level puncak kenaikannya dan sebaliknya definisi ‘resmi’ untuk sentimen bullish adalah kenaikan harga sebesar 20% dari dasar penurunannya.

Jadi secara ‘resmi’, dapat dikatakan bahwa sentimen bearish emas belumlah berakhir.

Katakanlah harga tidak akan mampu menembus ke bawah dasar penurunan 2013 lalu di sekitar $1180, maka sentimen bullish emas belum terkonfirmasi sampai menembus 20% kenaikan dari dasarnya, di $1416.

Namun seperti kata pepatah, ‘one swallow does not a summer make’, maka mungkin masih terlalu dini untuk menyebut sentimen bearish emas sudah berakhir.

Namun setidaknya ada secercah harapan bagi para investor logam mulia …

Dan ini didukung oleh John Hathaway, seorang Portfolio Manager & Senior Managing Director di Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., yang memproyeksikan lonjakan dramatis harga emas dalam laporan terbaru Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter.

Berikut bagian-bagian penting penjelasannya beserta 2 grafik menarik, yang memperlihatkan gambaran besar tentang emas:

“Despite the painful decline in gold and gold shares that persisted throughout the entire year, we believe that the fundamental case for both remains strong.  It seems to us that the correction has left the entire sector sold out and friendless.  As contrarians, our experience has been that attractive investment returns arise out of such circumstances.  We therefore encourage investors to maintain their commitment and wherever possible to add to positions.

At the current gold price, construction of new mines in most cases does not make sense.  Therefore, future mine supply is jeopardized without a substantial and sustained rise in the gold price….

The bullion market has been pressured all year by an artificial supply of paper gold with little or no connection to the underlying physical.  We wrote about this more extensively in our website article “Let’s Get Physical.”

We believe that the resolution of the disconnect between paper and physical gold will be a dramatic upside repricing of the real thing.  Most important is the steady migration of physical gold bars held in Western vaults to China and other parts of Asia, where they seem unlikely to be returned, other than for exorbitant ransom.

The timing of a resolution so potentially cataclysmic is elusive.  It would be like counting the snowflakes necessary to trigger an avalanche.  The buildup of systemic risk is there for anyone to see, but to the investment consensus, it is preferable, and perhaps more profitable in the short run, to ignore.  A commitment to precious metals and related mining shares is an investment in the almost certain failure of the PhD-standard in central banking, as stated so eloquently by Jim Grant.

Based on our perception of markets, it seems to us that the downside risk is limited.  Based on our perception of fundamentals, it seems to us that the upside potential is substantial.”



Agar Anda tetap ingat alasan mengapa membeli emas, berikut Ronald-Peter Stöferle dari Incrementum AG Lichtenstein meringkas fakta-fakta yang sangat penting mengenai emas dan mengingatkan kita bahwa emas itu adalah uang dan bukan suatu hal lain:

Many a (more or less) big philosopher has racked his brain as to why money has value.  Aristotle was of the opinion that good money should come with very high production costs so as to induce people to attach value to it.  He claimed that everybody would have to accept it as means of payment, value store, and value benchmark.  Along those lines presented by Aristotle, basically an ancient gold bug, the only materials that would fit this description were gold and silver.  Marxists would hail the reference to production costs, but Plato found a better explanation: from his point of view, money had no intrinsic value except the one that it was given by people.  This reminds us of the marginal theory of value proposed by the Austrian School of Economics…..

“People value units of money because of their expected purchasing power; money will allow people to receive real goods and services in the future, and hence people are willing to give up real goods and services now in order to attain cash balances. Thus the expected future purchasing power of money explains its current purchasing power.” (Robert Murphy)

Carl Menger explained the emergence of money as result of a historical-evolutionary process derived from barter trade.  In his Principles of Economics (1871) he writes: “Money is not the product of agreement of economic individuals, or even the product of a legislative act. It is no invention made by the people. Gaining an ever greater insight into their economic interests, the economic individuals in countries everywhere at the same time also realized that by relinquishing goods of lower marketable value for those of higher marketable value they would further their own economic end significantly. This is how money was created at many independent cultural centers along the ongoing development of the economy.”

In his habilitation treatise “The Theory of Money and Credit,” Ludwig von Mises managed to resolve a persistent circular argument of economics in an a priori, deductive way.  The circular argument was: “The people demand money because it has purchasing power, and it has purchasing power, because the people demand it.” This statement is of course a tautology.  Therefore, Mises introduced the time factor into his concept.  According to him, the expectation of future purchasing power of money crucially depends on the knowledge about today’s purchasing power.  Today’s purchasing power in turn can be explained by yesterday’s purchasing power.  At the end of the regression we therefore have to find a good that was generally needed and came with an industrial use.  This means that money has developed from a tangible good.  This also includes the demand for jewelry and thus gold.  According to Mises only goods with a generally accepted utility value can turn into generally accepted, natural money.  Gold and silver were already used as jewelry before they assumed their monetary functions.

According to Mises, past experience is the decisive factor for future trust in monetary stability.  The trust in the stability and future purchasing power is essential for the value measurement of money.  According to the regression theorem people only trust in money as long as it offers a certain degree of safety with regard to its future supply and thus to its future purchasing power.

“Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium.” Murray Rothbard

Why have gold and silver come out on top as money after all those centuries?  In his explanation, Roy Jastram refers to two (also anthropologically provable) basic human needs: the appreciation of beauty and the human will to survive.  The two metals therefore satisfy two requirements that are situated at the very bottom and at the very top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.


These two needs are today as strong as they used to be thousands of years ago.  Dr. Bernard Pacella, former President of the American Psychoanalytic Society, points out that the will to survive is the most important driver in nature.  According to Pacella personal survival (and in turn the survival of the species) dominates everything else. Continuing along this train of thought, the protection of one’s savings and the expectation of receiving a reward for this deferral of consumption also constitute elementary motives.  This also explains the need for a stable means of saving.


What are the central requirements for money?

* It has to be easily divisible into standardized units
* It has to be negotiable
* It has to be easily transportable
* It has to be durable and practically indestructible
* It has to come with a long track record of universal acceptance
* It has to be easily recognizable and fulfill certain criteria that can be easily verified – it has to have a high value density (i.e. high value / weight and volume)

* The existing holdings have to be large relative to the annual increments (high stock-to-flow ratio)
* It has to come with low storage costs
* It has to come with low transportation costs

* and last but not least, it must defy random replication

There are numerous goods that satisfy some of these criteria, but only gold and silver satisfy all of them.


What Do the Charts Say?

Berikutnya ada 2 artikel untuk Anda dari orang-orang yang bersentimen sangat bullish pada emas.

Yang pertama adalah Kevin Wides dari Swiss, yang pada 30 Januari lalu membarikan gambaran dan sejumlah grafik menarik tentang emas dari kisarannya saat ini.

Berikut penjelsan dan sejumlah grafiknya yang menarik:

“History is rhyming once again.  Many have made the comparisons  between the 1970s gold bull market and today’s gold bull market.  What has been highlighted is the (1975 – 1976) 44% decline in the gold price, with the conclusion that this is what may be happening today with the current gold price decline (down 38%) as shown on the chart below.


Meaning, it is nothing more than a cyclical correction in a secular gold bull market.  The monthly graph below confirms that gold has maintained its bull market trend from the year 2000.


Something else is also very similar.  The Dow peaked in September 1976, one month after gold bottomed in August 1976.  Gold then took off to the upside and the Dow sold off (see chart below).


We now know that back then the Dow was trading in a secular bear market — a broadening wedge with slightly higher highs and lower lows — which started in the mid-to-late 1960s, and only came to an end in the early 1980s.

Fast-forward to today, and the Dow and gold have done an uncanny repeat of the price action of the 1960s-’70s time frame.  And more specifically, the price action of August /September of 1976.  Gold put in a new closing low in December 2013 priced in US dollars, and new lows in euro gold, GBP gold and numerous other currencies.  The Dow made a new  trading high here in January 2014, which happened to be at the resistance of a broadening 14-year trading wedge….

It was Warren Buffett who stated in November 1999 that the stock market was likely entering a period very similar to that of the late 1960s to early 1980s – some 17 years of ranging markets.

“Now, to get some historical perspective, let’s look back at the 34 years before this one–and here we are going to see an almost Biblical kind of symmetry, in the sense of lean years and fat years–to observe what happened in the stock market.  Take, to begin with, the first 17 years of the period, from the end of 1964 through 1981.  Here’s what took place in that interval:  DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12 Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00” …… Warren Buffett November 1999

There are other numerous factors contributing to this possible outcome, but a very important one is rising real interest rates, possibly reflecting mounting inflationary pressure.

History may not repeat exactly, but the similarities are too strong to ignore.  With extreme market sentiment readings — optimism in stocks and pessimism in gold — a major trading opportunity looks to be unfolding.


Also note in the chart above that gold has now completed a FIVE-WAVE decline since the 2011 top, and a typical correction of a FIVE-WAVE move is the 50% retracement of that move, which would take gold back to the $1550 level.  $1550 also happens to be the breakdown level through which gold collapsed on April 12, 2013.  In conclusion, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors is too much to ignore, and we should see a major surge in the price of gold in the coming year.”

Artikel berikutnya juga masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, yang dibuat oleh Bo Polny dari, yang membahas mengenai salah satu perdagangan yang paling menakjubkan sepanjang sejarah dan bagaimana korelasinya dengan emas di tahun 2014.

Selain itu juga ada sejumlah kutipan luar biasa beserta 4 grafik menarik di dalamnya:

The 1909 Greatest Commodity Trade In The History Of The World & How It Will Relate To Gold In 2014!….

 “W.D. Gann Secrets:

 “Time is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages of commodities or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future.”

“Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance.  The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states:  ‘What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.’ – Ecclesiastes 1:9

“There is a definite relation between time and price … Now, by a study of the time periods and time cycles you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them.”

“Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilization has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself.”

“The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.”

When it comes to markets and trading, without a doubt the most publicized, mysterious and amazing trade of all time was the one Mr. Gann took in September wheat in 1909.  The trade took him from obscurity to becoming a trading legend almost overnight!

This was the astonishing trade that helped to make W.D. Gann a legend:  Gann predicted that the price of September wheat would have to rise to $1.20 by the end of the trading for the contract (Sept. 30th).  And, at noon, on September 30th, 1909, with only an hour and twenty minutes left to go, September wheat was trading at $1.07.  Mr. Gann stated again, “I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.”


In less than one hour and fifteen minutes after noon, September wheat had moved from $1.07 all the way up to trade at W.D. Gann’s predicted price of $1.20!


… and W.D. Gann became a trading legend!




Meskipun masih ada potensi tekanan emas lebih jauh nantinya, jangan biarkan itu menghalangin Anda. Malah, sebaiknya manfaatkan itu sebagai keuntungan.

Dengan membeli emas saat ini, dan terus melakukannya secara teratur dalam beberapa bulan ke depan maka Anda memperoleh manfaat ganda yakni mengurangi cost dan risk (dalam basis dolar).

Ingat, bahwa fundamental pendukung emas tidak ada yang hilang, malah semakin kuat.

Pertanyaan penting untuk emas saat ini adalah apakah bank-bank sentral utama akan sukses keluar dari politik moneter yang tidak konvensional?

Saya pribadi berpandangan bahwa the Fed sedang terjebak dalam perangkap yang dibuatnya sendiri dan tidak ada jalan keluar yang mudah dari quantitative easing, oleh karenanya emas masih akan menjadi asuransi penting bagi para pemilik modal.

Pada gilirannya, sell-off (tekanan jual) emas tahun 2013 merupakan peluang melakukan aksi beli besar-besaran!

Terakhir, saya persembahkan lelucon pendek yang berjudul A Sign from God:

A woman and man get into a car accident. Both of their cars are totally demolished, but amazingly neither of them are hurt.

After they crawl out of the wreckage, the woman says, “Wow, look at our cars – there’s nothing left! Thank God we are all right. This must be a sign from Him that we should be friends and not try to pin the blame on each other.”

The man replies, “Oh yes, I agree with you completely.”

The woman points to a bottle on the ground and says, “And here’s another miracle. Somehow this bottle of scotch from my back seat didn’t break. Surely God wants us to drink this scotch and celebrate our good fortune.”

Then she hands the bottle to the man. The man nods his head in agreement, opens it, and drinks about a third of the bottle to calm his nerves. He then hands it back to the woman. The woman takes the bottle, immediately puts the cap back on, and hands it back to the man.

The man asks, “Aren’t you having any?”

The woman replies, “No. I think I’ll just wait for the police… I’ll let them decide whose fault it is.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat 17 Februari 2014

Categories: Emas Tags:

Eropa Siap Tinggal Landas… Atau Crash?

February 17th, 2014 No comments

“Europe is under threat. I am still really concerned. Markets have improved but the economic situation for most countries has not improved. Markets are currently disregarding risks, particularly in the periphery. I expect some banks not to pass the test despite political pressure. As that becomes clear, there will be a financial reaction in markets.”

– Axel Weber, the former head of the German Bundesbank


“The long-suffering citizens of southern Europe and Ireland have put up with the failings and 1930s ideology of EMU policy-makers with remarkable stoicism for a long time. An aborted recovery at this point – with another leg up in mass unemployment – might be more than democratic societies can tolerate. There is a concept in physics known as a critical state, the moment when apparent stability suddenly gives way to drastic change. Europe must be getting close.”

– Ambrose Evans-Pritchard


Permasalahan di Eropa begitu besar sehingga dapat mendorong menuju kehancuran pada akhirnya, atau setidaknya restrukturisasi besar.

Kini perekonomian dan perbankan Eropa dalam tekanan besar. Di beberapa tahun terakhir ini ECB telah menyuntikkan dana $1 trilyun dolar ke perbankan Eropa, namun jumlah itu masih jauh dari yang dibutuhkan.

Oleh karenanya sistem perbankan Eropa masih berada dalam tekanan.Misalnya Spanyol yang Agustus 2013 lalu mengumumkan bahwa kredit macet di perbankannya mencapai lebih dari 12%, atau $250 milyar.

Itu adalah rekor baru dan dapat meningkat lagi. Sementara tidak ada pilihan bagaimana untuk membayarnya.

IMF memproyeksikan perbankan Spanyol dan Italia akan kehilangan loan mereka ke korporasi senilai $300 milyar dalam 2 tahun ke depan.

Dan jika ditambahkan dengan loan properti serta kredit individu lainnya, maka jumlahnya kemungkinan mencapai trilyunan dolar.

Dan nyatanya leverage perbankan Eropa mencapai 26x, suatu hal yang menjamin mereka untuk bangkrut.

Diperkirakan perbankan Eropa perlu disuntikkan dana $1 trilyun lagi agar bisa lolos dari stress test.

Oleh karenanya saya yakin krisis perbankan Eropa akan meningkat kembali tahun ini.

Sebagai ilustrasi untuk melihat seberapa besar masalahnya, berikut update terbaru yang menarik dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective terhadap sektor perbankan Eropa, yang berjudul Big Banks Buckling:


“With credit conditions deteriorating, market prices for three financial bellwethers – Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Santander – turned down over the past two weeks.

Shares of all three banks have fallen 8%-11% since mid-January and shed one-third to two-thirds of their value since their respective all-time peaks.

For all three banks, fundamentals are starting to catch up with their weak stock prices.

According to two forensic analysts in Hong Kong, HSBC may need as much as $111 billion to contend with “overstated earnings, inadequately capitalized balance sheets [and] legal and regulatory problems.” (CNBC, 1/17/14)

On January 20, when Deutsche Bank disclosed a nearly €1 billion fourth-quarter loss, nervous shareholders sent the stock down 5%, and here, too, the bank’s mounting legal woes were an oft-cited concern.

In December 2013, the European Union slapped a record €1.7 billion fine on Deutsche Bank and five other firms in connection with the 2012 Libor bid-rigging scandal.

Meanwhile, the more recent probe into the $5 trillion per day foreign-exchange market has netted at least a dozen firms, with 13 traders having been suspended, fired or put on leave.

“[T]he risks are obvious and great,” a major Deutsche Bank shareholder tells the Financial Times. However, the regulatory danger for most banks will actually grow as stocks and social mood fall.

Recall, for instance, this July 2012 discussion about the relationship between bear markets and the public’s tendency to uncover corporate malfeasance:

People seek to unearth scandal as psychology transitions from a state of contentment and trust to one of discontent and suspicion. The key word is transition.

More often than not, the public uncovers fraud during the early stages of a mood decline, setting in motion the investigations, criminal charges and legislative overhauls that occupy a major mood low.

Increasing calls to revamp the century-old system for fixing gold and silver prices provides an early glimpse at the scale of the regulatory overhauls we anticipate.

The current system, which dates back to 1919, involves a twice daily teleconference among five major banks – currently Barclays, Bank of Nova Scotia, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Société Générale.

In the wake of ongoing investigations into price rigging by British, German and U.S. regulators, Deutsche Bank just announced that it will withdraw from participating in the London gold fix, and, according to Bloomberg, the four other fixing banks will form a steering committee to look into how to improve the process.

In January, the president of Germany’s financial regulator, Bafin, called metals and currency rigging “worse than the Libor” because the markets are liquid and not based on bank estimates.


We obviously have no inside knowledge of these probes, but a bombshell disclosure in the months ahead would not surprise us at all.

Actually, such a discovery would fit right in with today’s negatively waxing mood.”


Artikel yang sangat menarik lainnya dari The Prudent Investor blog, yang menjelaskan mengapa: Austrian bank woes could be again the catalyst for a European Kondratieff winter

Silahkan baca dengan seksama dan bertindaklah yang sesuai:


Sad affairs have been heating up in the tiny Alpine republic in the center of the European Union. While Austria experiences record unemployment at record growth rates and tax revenues have fallen behind optimistic projections, the looming bankruptcy of a mid-sized regional bank, Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA), may propel the country to the disdained position of being the catalyst for a new round of bank failures due to interwoven banks risks on both the domestic and the international level.

Austrian politicians are up in arms since a third-party expert opinion that recommends to wind down the bank at a cost of €18 billion has been leaked to the media, but keep on marching on the most fatal route that will not dissolve the problems: They keep flogging the dead horse HGAA with taxpayer’s millions in a monthly money injection routine that has cost so far around €4.5 billion.

Current talks involving politicians appear to be more adequately suited for the Vienna opera house, but not for a rolling high finance train wreck that needs more than monthly band aids.

On Monday Austrian financial market authority FMA publicly said what the official Austria never wanted to hear as it is now confronted with a widening public discussion on a problem it had surrealistically hoped to brush under the carpet. FMA head Harald Ettl warned that any further delay would make the – in this blogger’s humble opinion doomed HGAA – an incalculable risk and that Austria should consider no option as a taboo anymore.

Nothing could be more true. An unorderly liquidation of HGAA will not only push Austria from the throne of the best economy in the Euro zone, pushing its public debt to GDP ratio well over 100%, but will also have continent wide reverberations.

Bad Bank Idea Stopped In its Tracks by RBI

The governments preferred solution, a bad bank for HGAA with the other Austrian banks as shareholders was stopped in its tracks on Monday.

Raiffeisenbank International (RBI) CEO Karl Sevelda ruled out his participation in such a special purpose vehicle, claiming his shareholders will vote “no” on this issue. RBI is laden down with its own problems like a 3-digit billion exposure to ailing Central Easter Europe’s countries where it had applied an aggressive “growth before everything else” strategy that is now becoming a boomerang due to mounting bad loans.

The government was desperate to push through such a bad bank scenario as this would have helped to avoid a rapid expansion in public debts. Without a bad bank HGAA’s debts would trigger guarantees from the owner, the province of Carinthia. As Carinthia is technically bankrupt itself this would lead to triggering state guarantees as Austrian laws do not provide for the bankruptcy of a province.

The FMA’s comments on HGAA will at least have one effect: Finger pointing between those responsible for the whole mess has already begun. Austria’s central bank, which issued a “no problem” expertise about HGAA at the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, is more focused on avoiding investor litigation that could hit the institution based on this old “expertise.”

So where do we go from here? As a dyed in the wool Austrian it can be assumed that the Austrian grand coalition, under fire from all sides since its formation last November because it has only come up with new tax ideas but no sizable savings in its expenditures, will apply the ostrich strategy once more.

Alas, this time the government may not find the time to sip coffee and push the debt wagon further as the EU is watching developments closely. On Monday Daniele Nouy, head of the newly formed EU banking authority EBA warned in an interview with the Financial Times, that it may not be appropriate to merge very sick banks with their not so sick counterparts. While not naming HGAA directly Nouy said, “we have to accept, that some banks will disappear.”

Austria’s banking woes look eerily similar to the failure of Creditanstalt in 1931 that was the fuse for the last European Kondratieff winter. For those sticking with K-cycles this may not be a good outlook. 83 years later such an event is more than overdue in Europe and given Europe’s overall outlook it does not take much anymore to set the Great EU Chaos into full fledged motion.

Nico-81Chart: The Long Wave Analyst


What Do the Charts Say?

Sebelum kita melihat lebih dekat pada perkembangan terakhir mata uang euro dan bursa saham Eropa, saya akan memperlihatkan 2 contoh jelas mengenai keparahan krisis perbankan Eropa.

Berikut seperti yang ditulis oleh Tyler Durden dari dan akan bermanfaat untuk Anda:


1)   Italian Bad Loans Hit Record High – Up 23% YoY (January 21st)

With all eyes gloating over Ireland’s recent ability to issue debt in the capital markets once again (and now with 10Y trading only 40bps above US Treasuries), Europe’s game of distraction continues. However, while spreads (and yields) tumble in all the PIIGS, with Italian yields at almost 7-year lows, it is perhaps surprising to some that Italian bad loan rates are at their highest on record. Having risen at a stunning 23% year-over-year – its fastest in 2 years, Italian gross non-performing loans (EUR149.6 billion) as a proportion of total lending rose to 7.8% in November (up from 6.1% a year earlier). As the Italian Banking Association admits in a statement today, deposits are declining (-1.9% YoY) and bonds sold to clients (-9.4% YoY) as Italy’s bank clients with bad loans have more than doubled since 2008.

Italian bad loans continue to soar – entirely ignored by the nation’s bond market participants (why worry!?)



2)   Spain’s Banco Popular Bad Loans Surge 20% QoQ (Most Ever) To Record High (January 31st)

As we draw ever closer to Europe’s date with disaster and the inevitable lifting of the kimono that Draghi’s supervision-driven stress tests appear to be, European banks are being forced to finally ‘fess up to the real state of their balance sheets. Confused at how bad macro data can be in Spain and yet banks have been ‘surviving’ or ‘thriving’ – simply put, they lied (and are now being forced to un-lie). 

Spain’s Banco Popular just released earnings showing a 19.6% rise in non-performing loans at EUR21.2 billion driven by a surge in “doubtful loans for subjective reasons” that almost tripled QoQ. This is the highest bad loan ratio on record at 14.27% – but have no fear, their CEO says “loan defaults are nearing their peak,” because he would know…

            From the Banco Popular earnings report…


and in context!!


It seems we have reached the point where some “honesty” is the best policy as if they want to raise capital and be “saved” by the ECB, they need to show just how bad it all is – together. Expect more of the same from Spanish (and Italian) banks…

The European bank ETF EUFN is down over 7% from its Jan highs in the last few days and while somewhat illiquid remains the cleanest way for US retail to trade any follow-through from European banking system exuberance fading.

Charts: Bloomberg


Mata uang euro telah menunjukkan kekuatannya yang besar dalam 18 bulan, dengan peningkatan 13% terhadap dolar AS sejak Juli 2012.

Namun … trend tersebut sepertinya akan berbalik arah.

Kembali dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective, menunjukkan bukti dalam laporannya di bulan Februari 2014 bahwa tekanan euro telah terjadi.

Artikel di bawah ini masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA bagi yang aktif melakukan transaksi pasangan mata uang EURUSD:

“Last month, trader sentiment toward the euro was overwhelmingly bullish. More than 80% of those polled thought its advance would continue.

Since 2008, the 80% level has only been exceeded on six occasions. Each time the Daily Sentiment Index (courtesy of exceeded 80%, a major turn lower followed. This time should be no different.

And this time, there’s a completed wave count, a bearish triangle, to accompany the extreme bullishness. The combination foreshadows a lengthy decline.


The growing opinion that the euro zone stands to gain from the emerging market crisis is another sentiment clue suggesting a more enduring euro decline.

“The weakness in emerging markets actually favors … the euro zone periphery,” an RBS strategist speculates.

Citing recent strong demand for Italian debt, Reuters speculates, “Rome may be fairly insulated from tensions in emerging markets.”

Even more optimism relates to the European Central Bank’s accommodative interest-rate policy and the euro zone’s improved growth outlook.

The European Commission’s index of executive and consumer sentiment just rose to its highest reading since July 2011, and, last month, the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany also beat forecasts.

“[S]ome of the cash flowing out of emerging markets could find a home in Italian, Spanish and Irish bonds,” writes one analyst.

This widespread belief that the euro zone represents a strategic safe haven is another byproduct of elevated social mood; it also strengthens the Elliott wave case for an enduring euro sell-off.

Before wave c is complete, EURUSD should approach parity and headlines might proclaim the death of the euro.”


Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, di Eropa kita telah melihat sejumlah indeks saham yang sedang menukik ke areal pivotal support-nya.

Seperti dikatakan oleh Citi’s FX Technicals, “A break below these supports, if seen, would suggest that we could see much more significant corrections lower across the board”:


Via Citi FX Technicals,

E300 (Europe) Index: weekly reversal at the highs


Posted a clear bearish outside week yesterday at the high of 2011-2014 rally. This suggests the potential for further losses in the weeks ahead. Initial support is met at 1241 (trend line) and then 1228 (55 week moving average).

A weekly close below that latter level would suggest the danger of extended losses towards the converged trend line and 200 week moving average support around 1,106-1,108 (Around 18% off its peak).

CAC 40 (France): Bearish weekly reversal and double top.


Again, this index posted a clear bearish weekly reversal at the trend high and in addition has the potential to form a double top.

The neckline stands at 4,051 and a close below would suggest at least 3,750 with interim support at the 55 week moving average (3,988).


Below here we see numerous converged trend line supports and the 200 week moving average in the 3,537 to 3,662 range.

FTSE (UK): Another bearish outside week at the high and possible double top


Completed a bearish outside week last week and has followed through to the downside this week.

Now testing good trend line and 55 week moving average support between 6,508 and 6,522. Below here further good support is met in the 5,990-6,105 range with the 200 week moving average at 5,891.

A weekly close 6,023 would complete a clear double top formation and suggest additional losses towards 5,200 or below.


Hdax index (Germany): Bearish weekly reversal at trend high


The HDAX Index is a total rate of return index of the 110 most highly capitalized stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The HDAX has a base value of 500 as of December 31, 1987.

Initial support is met at 4,687 and below here converged 55 week moving average and trend line support comes in between 4,335 and 4,408.

A weekly close below this range would suggest extended losses towards the 200 week moving average at 3,652 (28% off the trend high).


MIB index (Italy): Bearish outside week at the highs


Suggests a move lower to test the trend line and 55/200 week moving average supports in the 17,347 to 17,984 range.

A weekly close below this range would suggest the danger of extended losses towards 14,855-14,900 again.


Seperti biasa di akhir tulisan, saya lampirkan 2 gambar lucu dari William Banzai:



Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 13 Februari 2014

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Pemulihan Ekonomi AS Hanya Khayalan Belaka

February 17th, 2014 No comments

“Now is a very good time to start thinking financially because I’m afraid that this year, in 2014, we’re going to go back into the financial hurricane. We’ve been in the eye of the storm since 2009, but now we’re going to go back into the trailing edge of the storm, and it’s going to be much longer lasting and much worse and much different than what we had in 2008 and 2009.”

– Doug Casey


“Nothing goes (down) in a straight line, but the emerging market problems will accelerate and it will spread to the very overbought and the very overvalued stock markets and economies in the West. So stock markets are now starting a secular bear trend which will last for many years, and we could see falls of massive proportions. At the end of this, the wealth that has been created in the last few decades will be destroyed.”

– Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management


Apakah Anda percaya pemulihan ekonomi AS yang luar biasa ini? Kalau saya tidak!

Saya ada beberapa grafik untuk Anda lihat hari ini yang menjelaskan banyak keraguan saya mengenai pondasi pemulihan itu sendiri.

Yang pertama Tyler Durden dari yang memberikan klarifikasi mengapa pemulihan ekonomi 2013 adalah sebuah kebohongan besar:


1) Retail Traffic Plunges By “Staggering” 21% In Week Before Christmas  (December 24th)

That it has been one of the most lackluster shopping seasons in recent years has already been repeatedly covered, with average holiday spending expected to decline for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, all this despite record promotions and an ever earlier start to Black Friday.

Nico-57Another chart showing the same trend from Bloomberg, with the comment that the “eroding middle class can no longer drive activity as it has in the past” – that’s odd: we said the same thing in late 2009 for which we got yet another label of tinfoil conspiracy theorists…


However, while the early start to shopping season has missed expectations, driven primarily by an unprecedented weakness in traditional bricks and mortar outlets, there was some hope that the last stretch into Christmas and the New Year would provide a much needed, last minute bump.  Those hopes were dashed last night when Shopptertrack reported that retail traffic plummeted by an unprecedented 21% last week, and in-store sales decreased 3.1% from the year before, dashing retailers’ hopes that the final stretch before Christmas would offset soft sales numbers earlier in the holiday shopping season.


2)    Guess The Mystery Chart (January 23th)

This chart shows the year over year change in a very important data series. Guess what it is.


If you said the underlying data is comparable store sales for McDonalds in the United States, which just dipped by 1.4% – the most since the Lehman crash - then you were 100% accurate. That’s right: in Q4 the American consumer, obviously “because of the weather” just said no to the biggest US diet staple.

In other words, the chart above shows close to the exact moment when Americans could no longer even afford to eat at the golden arches.

And now, as the economists say, “assume a recovery…


3) Spot The “Recovery” In This Abysmal Durable Goods Chart (January 28th)

We can waste many words to explain today’s absolutely atrocious and recovery killing durable goods report (wait for it… wait for it… it’s the weather’s fault), or we can just show this once chart  explaining all that has happened so far in the “recovery.”


Ok fine: here it is in word format:

  • Durable goods which in November were said to have risen by 3.5%, were revised lower to     2.6% (we said there was something very fishy with the seasonally adjusted numbers last month). The December number, however, plunged by 4.3%, well below the expected 1.8%, and a paltry 0.1% increase Y/Y. Any time the Y/Y series is consistently negative, there is a recession. Of note: the durable goods orders for computers and electronics was at the lowest level since December 1993. We know… we know… Nobody orders computers when it is cold outside.
  • Durable goods ex transports plunged 1.6%, on expectations of a 0.5% increase, and the   November print also was revised lower from 1.2% to 0.1%.


The more important core CapEx numbers, which are always said to be just around the corner but never actually appear, were even worse:

Cap Goods orders nondefense ex aircraft plunged from 4.5% to -1.3% on expectations of a 0.3% increase. This despite the November revision lower to 2.6%.


Cap goods shipments nondefense ex aircraft also tumbled from 2.3% to -0.2%, on expectations of  a 0.1% increase. November also was revised lower from 2.8% to 2.3%.


So much for Tapering into strength. And now we look forward to the Fed saying what it meant     when it said “data dependent” was really “snow in the cold winter” data dependent…


4)  Chart Of The Day: Orders Of Computers And Electronic Products Plunge To 1993 Levels (January 28th)

Because, like, nobody orders computers or electronics when, you know, it’s cold out, in December the orders of computers and electronic products dropped to a level not seen since 1993. And yes,  they did have computers back in 1993.



5) Real Disposable Income Plummets Most In 40 Years (January 31st)

We may not know much about “Keynesian economics” (and neither does anyone else: they just plug and pray, literally), but we know one thing: when real disposable personal income drops    by 0.2% from a month earlier, and plummets by 2.7% from a year ago,  the biggest collapse since the semi-depression in 1974, something is wrong with the US consumer.


And longer-term chart:


Source: BEA


6) Clients Are Stretching To Find Reasons Not To Cut (February 2nd)

Perhaps Citi’s Tobias Levkovich sums it up best…

“Interestingly, we have received a fair amount of questions from clients over the last couple of weeks about the effect of share buybacks supporting earnings in the coming year, almost as if they are stretching to find reasons not to cut their numbers.”

But a glance at the following 3 charts should clarify that…

The average American is in trouble…


And appears unable to use the Keynesian wet-dream of credit expansion to to fix his ability to spend


And even corporates are not spending


7) ISM Has Biggest Miss On Record, New Orders Plunge Most Since 1980 (February 3th)

The downward revision to last month’s recent record high appears to have been the warning flag but this is a disaster. ISM Manufacturing dropped by its most since 2008 to levels not seen since May, missed by the most on record, and new orders collapsed at the fastest pace since December 1980. The employment sub-index also tumbled from 55.8 to 52.3. “Poor       weather” was blamed by some respondents and still hangovers from the government shutdown but these numbers are simply unprecedented as the data came in at a 6-sigma miss to “economist” expectations.

Surprisingly, even the ISM is sick and tired of the generic excuse:


So, one needs to come up with new and improved generic excuses for biggest miss on record:


6-Sigma from smart people’s expectations…


And New orders dropped by the most since 1980…


The full component breakdown with New Orders highlighted:



8)    The US Consumer Is Not Thriving (February 4th)

With the world’s focus on emerging markets and anxiously trying to bring the narrative back   domestically as a reason to buy US stocks, we thought this simple chart would help clarify just how ‘great’ the US economy (70% of GDP is consumption we are constantly reminded) is doing…


Of course this should be no surprise when disposable income is collapsing.

Why should you be concerned…?

Nico-75h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer


What Do the Charts Say?

Dalam market update singkat, Citi’s FX Technicals optimis bahwa indeks saham Dow Jones akan mencoba MA-55 pekan di 15214 dan indeks S&P 500 di 1707:

Via Citi FX Technicals,

Dow Jones Industrial average daily and weekly charts


Kiri: Harga ditutup di bawah MA-200 hari untuk pertama kali sejak akhir tahun 2012.

Kanan: Fokus kini menuju ke MA-55 pekan yang berada di 15214. Diperkirakan akan dicoba dalam jangka pendek. Jika harga penutupan dalam basis mingguan menembusnya, dan juga pada S&P 500 (yang MA-55 pekannya ada di 1672), maka akan mendukung sentimen bearish jangka menengah.


S&P 500 – likely to test the 200 day moving average


Untuk jangka waktu pendek ini, indeks S&P 500 masih beresiko mencoba terlebih dahulu MA-200 harinya (1707) yang sejajar dengan garis trend kenaikannya.


Penulis kawakan di media finansial, Richard Russell, baru-baru ini memberikan peringatan besar bahwa bursa saham kini sedang ‘diambang kejatuhan’.

Berikut kutipan-kutipan pentingnya:


“Following the great crash of 1929, the market rallied into 1930 in a huge upside correction of the crash.  The Dow hit a high in January, backed off during the month of February and then rallied to a second lower peak in March.  Following its second lower peak, the Dow resumed its bear market action and headed persistently lower.  It was here that the US economy started to fall apart in earnest.

If Bernanke understood markets he’d understand why he’s now fighting a losing battle with the US economy.  By spending trillions of dollars at the 2009 lows, the Fed was able to trigger a huge and overdue upward correction of the crashing primary bear market.  Thus, the bear market was temporarily held back.

Returning to the present, the great market advance since the 2009 low was actually an upward correction of the bear market that started in 2000.  All the market action since 2000 has been part of a huge, slow-building top.  If we follow the 1929 pattern, the Dow may now decline for a month and then rally to a second lower peak.  Following the second lower peak, the Dow will then decline persistently as the bear market resumes in earnest.  As the situation becomes progressively more bearish, my best guess is that Yellen will continue to fight the primary bear trend with all the ammunition at the Fed’s command.

With the “down January” and the market suddenly stalling, I expect public sentiment to lose its good-time giddiness and to slowly turn bearish.  I also expect the new bearish sentiment to feed on itself.  I believe the public will soon demand HONEST statistics and data from the government.  Remember, once the bear market is established, all the lying and nonsense will come to an end.

Late Notes — It should come as no surprise to subscribers that the stock market got whacked badly today.  Today I received a clear sell signal on the point & figure chart of the Dow, which suggests continued selling.  Once the market is oversold, I expect a good rally, which will take the Dow close to the previous high.  When that rally deteriorates and declines, I expect the market to embark on an extended and frightening bear market decline. 

I expect steady bear market deterioration in the US economy to continue from here, regardless of what the market does.  Already I hear talk of a possible 10% correction.  These people are wrong.  This is not a correction.  It’s a continuation of the bear market.”


Di akhir tulisan dan sekaligus akhir pekan ini kembali saya lampirkan gambar lucu dari William Banzai:


Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 07 Februari 2014

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags:

Apakah Keraguan Terhadap ‘Abenomics’ Kian Memuncak?

February 17th, 2014 No comments


‘Abenomics’, atau rencana/program dari PM Shinzo Abe sejak tahun lalu yang menggabungkan sejumlah langkah agresif berupa kebijakan moneter, stimulus fiskal dan reformasi ekonomi untuk menghidupkan kembali perekonomian Jepang, telah menarik perhatian para investor dunia.

Akibatnya bursa saham Jepang pada tahun 2013 berhasil mengakumulasi kenaikan tahunan 53,7 persen, yang terbesarnya sejak 1972 atau dua kali lipat dari kenaikan indeks S&P 500 AS, dan yen Jepang pun secara simultan melemah hingga 18 persen di periode yang sama.

Namun pasca rencana PM Abe yang ambisius tersebut, untuk mengangkat ekonomi dari resesi dan dari deflasi akut, saya masih belum melihat katalisator positif lainnya dari Jepang.

Faktor utama pelemahan yen dan kenaikan bursa saham Jepang adalah paket stimulus besar-besaran yang diumumnya BoJ pada pertemuannya April 2013 lalu, namun saya tidak yakin akan ada kelanjutan peningkatan dari paket ini dalam waktu dekat.

Bahkan saya juga meragukan apakah Jepang akan sungguh melepas panah ketiga dari rencana ‘Abenomics’ – reformasi struktural – karena sejauh ini belum terjadi.

Yang juga tak kalah penting sejumlah analis mulai khawatir mengenai kelanjutan momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang saat ini, dengan merujuk pada realisasi rencana kenaikan pajak konsumsi Jepang ke 8% dari 5% yang diperkirakan akan beresiko menekan consumer spending dan corporate earnings.

Saat pajak konsumsi tersebut dinaikkan April nanti, pertanyaan yang muncul adalah seberapa jauh perekonomian akan melamban?

Menurut saya bisa saja merosot dengan mudah dari 2,6 persen tahun lalu ke 0,6 persen tahun ini. Dan saya belum melihat langkah positif Jepang ke depannya.

Terutama dengan terkoreksinya bursa saham Jepang sekitar 15% dari puncak kenaikan di 31 Desember lalu, seperti Anda dapat lihat di grafik berikut, maka keraguan terhadap ‘Abenomics’ sungguh sedang memuncak.


Chart: Bloomberg

Dalam salah satu laporan terbarunya, Bloomberg menulis bahwa QE Jepang mungkin tidak akan meningkatkan inflasi sesungguhnya – yakni upah, melainkan hanya mendorong kenaikan inflasi yang jahat, yakni harga impor untuk energi, pangan, maupun komoditas lainnya.

Itulah mengapa untuk pertama kalinya, banyak yang membantah rumor yang beredar November lalu bahwa ekspansi QE dari BoJ akan dilakukan meskipun kemungkinan tertunda.


From Bloomberg:

Accelerating inflation is prompting analysts from HSBC Holdings Plc. to Daiwa Securities Co. to push back forecasts for when the Bank of Japan may add to record monetary easing.

The percentage of economists predicting an expansion of already unprecedented stimulus between April and June fell to 33 percent from 56 percent three months ago in a Bloomberg News survey of 36 economists conducted Jan. 10-15.

With the BOJ’s preferred benchmark gauge showing inflation at more than half of its target 2 percent pace, the central bank may wait to assess trends in wages and the effects of a sales-tax increase in April before deciding on any extra stimulus. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board will keep policy on hold when a two-day meeting ends today, according to all economists in the survey.

“The speed of inflation is the main reason for pushing back my forecast,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities and a former central bank official. “The BOJ can take a breath and watch developments in prices and the impact of the sales-tax increase.”

Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 1.2 percent in November from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2008. For the final quarter of 2013, analysts estimate inflation was 1.1 percent, according to a separate poll, nearly three times economists’ 0.4 percent forecast in a survey in April last year.

Needless to say, a delay in QE would crush ‘Abenomics’, as it would mean a surge in the Yen, a plunge in the Nikkei – really his only accomplishments so far – even as wages never rose, pushing the economy back in the deflationary limbo from whence it came as everyone rushes to sell financial assets.

What happens then? Well… “The BOJ’s total assets have climbed to ¥229 trillion, or 48 percent of the nation’s nominal gross domestic product. The central bank aims to increase its balance sheet further to ¥290 trillion by the end of this year.”

Richard Koo, a former Federal Reserve economist, adds, “It may be too late to prevent long-term rates doing something crazy” should the BOJ hold off on tapering before inflation reaches the target, said Richard Koo, the chief economist in Tokyo at Nomura Research Institute Ltd. The stimulus is leaving Japan at risk of falling into a quantitative-easing “trap” of being unable to taper without a surge in long-term rates and subsequent damage to the recovery.”

Good luck Japan. You will need it very soon for sure.

Sejak akhir 2012, Tyler Durden dari sudah sangat kritis terhadap eksperimen ‘Abenomics’ Jepang, serta panah pertama dan hanya satu-satunya: peningkatan besar-besaran monetary base oleh langkah agresif BoJ April 2013, yang menyebabkan melemah tajamnya yen dan melonjaknya Nikkei, dan harapan kebangkitan ekonomi dari stabilnya inflasi di areal 2%.

Berikut yang dijelaskannya dalam tulisan yang berjudul The Failure of ‘Abenomics’:

“We repeatedly warned that the only inflation anyone would see in Japan is in imported energy costs and food prices, which in turn would crush real disposable income especially once nominal wage deflation accelerated, which it has for the past 16 months straight. So far this has happened precisely as warned.

Another thing we warned about is that the result of the bank reserves tsunami – just like in the US – lending in Japan would grind to a halt, as everyone and their grandmother sought to invest the resulting excess deposits in risk markets as exemplified best by JPMorgan’s CIO division.

Today, with the traditional one year delay (we assume they had to give it the benefit of the doubt), the mainstream media once again catches up to what Zero Hedge readers knew over a year ago, and blasts the outright failure that is Abenomics, but not only in the US (with the domestic honor falling to the WSJ), but also domestically, in a truly damning op-ed in the Japan Times.

We will let readers peruse the WSJ’s “Japan’s Banks Find It Hard to Lend Easy Money: Dearth of Borrowers Illustrates Difficulty in Japan’s Program to Increase Money Supply” on their own. It summarizes one aspect of what we have been warning about – namely the blocked monetary pipeline, something the US has been fighting with for the past five years, and will continue fighting as long as QE continues simply because the “solution” to the problem, i.e., even more QE, just makes the problem worse.

We will however, show the one chart summary which captures all the major failures of the BOJ quite succinctly.


More importantly, we will repost the Japan Times Op-Ed from last night, titled “BOJ’s money mountain growing but debt may explode” because it not only copies all we have said over the past year, but is a dramatic reversal from the Japanese population eagerly drinking Abe’s Kool-Aid long after its expiration date. Because once the media starts asking questions, the broader population can’t be far behind.

From Japan Times, November 17, 2013 highlights ours

BOJ’s money mountain growing but debt may explode

by Reiji Yoshida

Haruhiko Kuroda hit the ground running when he was appointed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in March to take charge of the Bank of Japan.

Out of the blue, the central bank’s new governor unveiled a super-aggressive easing policy the next month to double the nation’s monetary base in just two years. He said the BOJ would buy more than ¥7 trillion in long-term Japanese government bonds per month to flood the financial system with money to end more than a decade of deflation.

The BOJ’s nine-member Policy Board unanimously supported Kuroda’s goal of stoking 2 percent inflation in two years — a surprise about-face from its stance under his predecessor, Masaaki Shirakawa, who was concerned about the potential side effects of embracing such radical quantitative easing.

More than six months have passed. How has the BOJ’s strategy changed Japan’s financial markets and the real economy?

Critics say Kuroda’s monetary easing scheme isn’t working, although most of the public apparently believes otherwise.

There are growing signs of inflation, but not the sort heralding the start of Abe’s much-advertised recovery and rising wages. Instead, imported fuel and other products have become more expensive because of the weak yen ushered in by Kuroda and Abe, and this bodes ill for the public’s living standards.

Meanwhile, Kuroda’s aggressive plan is allowing the debt-ridden government to issue fresh bonds continuously, further increasing the likelihood of a fiscal crisis, they said.

People have been deceived by ‘Abenomics,’ ” Yukio Noguchi, a prominent economist and adviser to Waseda University’s Institute of Financial Studies, told The Japan Times in a recent interview.

Monetary easing is not working, and it’s going nowhere,” Noguchi said.

Since April, the BOJ has been gobbling up JGBs from banks and the open market. Its purchases amount to roughly 70 percent of the value of all new JGBs issued.

But the banks are just stowing that money in their accounts at the BOJ because they can’t find any companies interested in borrowing it.

“There is no demand for funds on the part of businesses. That’s why the monetary easing is not working,” Noguchi said.

Japan’s monetary base — the sum of cash in circulation plus banks’ current account balances at the BOJ — surged from 23.1 percent in April to 45.8 percent in October, thanks to the BOJ’s aggressive operations.

But its money stock — the total amount of monetary assets available in an economy including credit created by bank loans, but excluding deposits held by financial institutions and the central government — only rose to 3.3 percent from 2.3 percent in the period.

This means banks are just depositing the massive funds provided by the BOJ in their own accounts at the central bank. The unloaned cash is thus having little effect on the real economy.

Meanwhile, the long-term interest rate, which theoretically factors in an expected rate of inflation, has fallen and is dwindling at an ultralow level of around 0.6 percent.

This signals that the market does not yet seriously believe that inflation in Japan will reach Kuroda’s 2 percent goal, said Kazuhito Ikeo, an economics professor at Keio University.

“When the policy interest rate has effectively fallen to zero, monetary policy won’t work much anymore,” Ikeo said in a recent interview.

Ikeo believes the economy is stuck in a rut because its potential for economic growth has declined and monetary measures alone can’t solve the problem, he said.

“I think it has become clearer that there is a limit to what monetary policy can do,” Ikeo said.

Much of the public believes the drastic easing measures adopted by Abe and Kuroda helped weaken the yen and benefitted exporters. The yen-dollar rate has fallen from around 78 to about 100 over the past 14 months. This helped send the Nikkei stock index soaring from December, one of the main reasons Abenomics has public support.

But the yen started depreciating last fall, long before Kuroda’s widely proposed takeover at the BOJ officially took place in April, Noguchi said.

Abe was just “lucky” to see the yen fall, Noguchi claimed, crediting the easing of the eurozone debt crisis last fall rather than clear signs that Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was getting ready to boot the unpopular Democratic Party of Japan from power.

In September, Japan’s consumer price index rose 0.7 percent from the same month last year to log its fourth consecutive rise, hinting at inflation. The uptick, however, was misleading. It was largely caused by the costly rise in energy imports, exacerbated by a weaker yen.

This, of course, is not a sign of economic recovery, both Noguchi and Ikeo said.

Workers’ real wages fell 2 percent in August compared with the same month the previous year, logging two drops in a row. Inflation without wage hikes will only erode people’s living standards.

“It is wages that matter. If prices go up without a rise in wages, the real income of the people just goes down,” Noguchi said.

Abe apparently is well aware of this risk and has repeatedly urged top business leaders in Keidanren, the nation’s largest business lobby, to push for wage hikes to generate “a virtuous cycle” of raises and economic expansion.

Noguchi calls Abe’s approach “sheer nonsense” because Japan is not a planned economy and the government thus cannot force businesses to raise wages against their will.

Probably the biggest risk with Abenomics, however, is a potential crash in JGB prices that would cause long-term interest rates to spike and gut the debt-laden government.

Ikeo pointed out that the BOJ’s massive bond purchases are in fact helping the debt-ridden government finance itself, even if the central bank claims this is not its intention. If the BOJ keeps up this charade, confidence in JGBs might crash, Ikeo said.

Soon or later, concerns over fiscal sustainability will emerge. You can’t rule out the possibility of a surge in the (long-term) interest rate at a critical point,” he said.

The resulting surge in debt-serving costs would devastate the government, which has already racked up a public debt totaling almost 200 percent of gross domestic product — the highest of all developed countries. Nearly half of Japan’s ¥92.6 trillion general account for fiscal 2013 is barely being financed by fresh JGB issues.

According to Noguchi’s simulation, if the average JGB yield jumps to 4 percent in fiscal 2014, debt-serving costs will leap to a staggering ¥50 trillion in fiscal 2025 alone, which is more than half the size of the fiscal 2013 budget.

“This is nothing but fiscal bankruptcy,” Noguchi warned.

For some two decades, fears and rumors have swirled about just such a scenario. Economists who warned of the impending crisis were labeled alarmists while speculators who bet on it always lost.

That situation may soon change.

Japan’s trade balance has turned into a deficit and the current account surplus has shrunk. Japan posted a surplus of ¥3.05 trillion in the current account for the April-September half, the second-lowest level since 1985, when comparable data became available.

Ikeo warned that if the current account balance sinks into red and people are convinced the yen will no longer strengthen, investors may start buying foreign bonds and ditch their JGBs.

Another possible danger is, ironically, a full-fledged economic rebound, which would also push up long-term interest rates, Ikeo said.

The government needs to walk “a dangerous narrow path” of seeking a recovery while trying to prevent interest rates from surging at the same time, he said.”


What Do the Charts Say?

Mengawali update pasar yang suram berikut, di bawah ini ada grafik yang menunjukkan bahwa Jepang baru mengalami trade deficit tahunan terbesarnya di 11,47 trilyun yen:



So much for ‘Abenomics’ and the mythical J-Curve as the year got worse, and not better as expected, right?

Defisit tersebut telah berlangsung dalam 17 bulan berturut-turut, atau yang terburuk dalam setahun:


Dan ini akan menjadi musim dingin yang amat mahal bagi Jepang karena pelarangan nuklir bersamaan dengan devaluasi mata uang melambungkan harga (impor) energi.

Seperti data menunjukkan bahwa bahan bakar mineral mencapai 36,6% dari total impor dan meningkat 24,2% Y/Y, peningkatan terbesar dalam hampir 2 tahun:



Dan … nampaknya Goldman Sachs pun tidak yakin dengan the magic J-curve:

“Goldman Japan Trade Outlook – Trade balance to remain in the red, likely delay in J-curve effect: We expect the trade balance to remain in the red in the near term, but we see a gradual improvement over time in line with the J-curve effect. With the boost to export volumes from yen depreciation weakening, however, we draw attention to structural changes in imports, including higher electrical machinery imports.”

Citi’s FX Technicals memproyeksikan USDJPY akan menembus areal support 101.50 dan mencoba kembali MA-200 hari di 100.09.

Selain itu, juga diproyeksikan areal support berikut untuk Nikkei 225 adalah 13799-918, yang perlu diwaspadai dalam basis mingguan.

Via Citi FX Technicals:


USDJPY – likely to test the 200 day moving average


Support levels at 101.53-102.12 have given way on a daily close basis.

This now opens the way for a move to the 200 day moving average at 100.09.

The weekly chart below highlights additional levels and the overlay with the Nikkei 225 highlights the danger of further losses on USDJPY…


USDJPY Weekly Chart


The 55 week moving average and parallel of the trend across the highs converge at 98.33-85.

Only a weekly close below there would warrant serious concern over a more medium term horizon.


Nikkei 225 and USDJPY overlay – should USDJPY be lower? – watch the 55 week moving average


The weakness in the Nikkei 225 (which closed below the 200 day moving average today) would suggest USDJPY should be trading around 99.00.

The next set of decent supports on the Nikkei 225 are at 13,799-918 where the 55 week moving average and parallel of the trend across the highs converge.

We would need to see a weekly close below those levels before confirming any further bearish breaks.


Seperti biasa di akhir laporan, ada sejumlah gambar lucu dari William Banzai, berjudul CHiNDoGu EXPLaiNeD:

WB7: Chindogu are useless Japanese inventions, including ones that create more troubles than they solve.


Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 06 Februari 2014

Categories: Pasar Internasional Tags: