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Permintaan Emas Cina Tidak Akan Pernah Berhenti

February 19th, 2014 Leave a comment Go to comments

“We believe that the resolution of the disconnect between paper and physical gold will be a dramatic upside re-pricing of the real thing. Most important is the steady migration of physical gold bars held in Western vaults to China and other parts of Asia, where they seem unlikely to be returned, other than for exorbitant ransom.”

– John Hathaway: 07 January 2014


“Gold is the wild card. The gold price and investor positioning today reflects near unanimous negative sentiment on gold’s prospects, based on expected higher global interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar as the U.S. economy recovers. Any disappointment to this scenario will likely drive the gold price higher, making it one of the better hedges against the risk the U.S. economic recovery falters.”

– Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy for ETF Securities


Paper gold (investasi emas di pasar finansial) di negara-negara maju mungkin bergerak berdasarkan keinginan-keinginan para pemburu keuntungan, namun ketika investasi di pasar emas fisik dan minat Cina terhadapnya, maka satu kata yang menggambarkan pergerakannya adalah: unstoppable.

Di awal laporan ini, mari kita simak dengan seksama komentar salah seorang yang memiliki proyeksi akurat untuk pergerakan harga emas, seperti yang dijelaskannya dalam wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) belum lama ini.

Di bawah ini adalah yang dikatakan oleh William Kaye, yang 25 tahun lalu bekerja di Goldman Sachs di bagian mergers and acquisitions, berupa keyakinannya mengenai apa yang sedang terjadi di pasar emas dan bagaimana potensi harganya ke depan:

“The longer-term picture (for gold) is extremely bright.  The picture in China itself is phenomenal.  Right now China is, in terms of final demand, consuming virtually 100% of non-China global production of gold.  This is an amazing thing when you think about it….

China doesn’t export anything.  [People] need to think about that.  Chinese production is estimated at slightly over 400 metric tons (each year), which is not huge, but they don’t export that (gold).  All of that (gold) by law belongs to the People’s Bank of China, and if my sources are right, doesn’t even go through Shanghai.

Everything that is brought into China that isn’t produced domestically, and doesn’t go directly to the PBOC, is required by law in China to go through Shanghai.  So if we track deliveries into Shanghai, final deliveries into the market were almost 2,200 tons last year.

Well, since China’s production is a little over 400 tons, and total global production is estimated at between 2,600 and 2,700 tons, what that tells you is that China accounted for approximately 100% of all external (global gold) production — all non-China production.

So where is everything else coming from (to fill the rest of global gold demand)?  Where is the 1,200 tons that, including smuggling, went into India?  How about all of the gold that went into Russia and into the Middle-East?  This is what people need to focus on.

And this is why what we are currently seeing can’t continue indefinitely.  The question is, at what stage does gold actually get liberated?  The setup would appear, a