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Emas: Sudah Saatnya Beli Atau… Waspada?

“There is a total supply of gold in the world. But to corner a market or squeeze a market, you don’t need to buy all the gold; you just need to buy the floating supply. Think of all the gold in the world, it’s about 170,000 tons. Think of a little sliver on top of it that is the floating supply available for trading. Gold that’s in the Comex or JPMorgan or GLD vaults is available for trading. Gold purchased by the Chinese will not see the light of day again for the next 300 years, and is not available for trading. So with the gold going from West to East, and from GLD to China, the total amount of gold is unchanged, but the floating supply is declining rapidly. This means that the paper gold that sits on top of the floating supply is becoming more and more unstable and vulnerable to a short squeeze, because there is not enough physical gold to  support it. So that’s likely to collapse at one point and lead to a short squeeze and heavy buying.”

– James Rickards, the author of the national bestseller “Currency Wars”

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Belakangan ini mungkin sebagian besar para pecinta emas berharap-harap cemas, seiring dengan naiknya harga logam mulia menembus $1300/troy ounce untuk pertama kalinya sejak November 2013, waktu menjelang the Fed mulai melakukan QE-taper.

Selain itu kenaikan harga emas juga menembus MA-200 hari untuk pertama kalinya dalam kurun waktu sekitar setahun, seperti Anda dapat lihat di grafik di bawah ini:

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Sementara di awal pekan lalu, kenaikan harga emas mencapai level tertinggi dalam 4 bulan di $1354,80.

Dampak dari keputusan the Fed untuk mengurangi stimulus berupa program pembelian obligasi, yang adalah katalisator kenaikan harga emas sebelumnya, menyebabkan para trader cenderung menahan diri berbulan-bulan lamanya.

Emas pun merespon negatif terhadap awal QE-taper (17-18/Des) tahun lalu dan mengalami tekanan besar. Sehingga mengakumulasi penurunan emas di tahun 2013 sebesar 28%, dan merupakan penurunan tahunan pertamanya dalam 13 tahun.

Kemudian, hingga saat ini, harga emas cenderung naik sejak penurunan tersebut.

Namun di beberapa pekan ke depan perlu mewaspadai tantangan yang akan dihadapi kenaikan harga emas tersebut.

Jika kenaikan mampu bertahan kembali di areal kuncinya, yang adalah resistance di $1350, maka kenaikan dapat berlanjut.

Level tersebut menarik untuk diperhatikan dalam beberapa hari ke depan.

Dan pada Maret ini, kenaikan harga emas telah dua kali mencoba areal $1350 tersebut, kemudian masing-masing diikuti kejatuhan ke areal $1330an. Dan (laporan ini dbuat, di sesi Asia Senin 10/Mar/2014), harga emas bergerak di kisaran $1330 hingga $1340).

Bahkan, untuk mengingatkan, bahwa constructive price action emas tahun ini menunjukkan bahwa emas masih dalam bear market-nya saat ini.

Saya akan lanjutkan pandangan emas saya, yang masih melihat bahwa kenaikannya belakangan ini hanya sebuah bear market rally sampai ada konfirmasi yang menunjukkannya.

What Do the Charts Say?

Larry Edelson, seorang ahli emas dan logam mulia terkemuka dunia dan editor pada Real Wealth Report, Power Portfolio serta Gold and Silver Trader, memberikan peringatan keras di tulisan terbarunya yang berjudul: Don’t Be Fooled by Gold’s Glitter.

Berikut tulisannya:

“Almost everyone thinks gold has bottomed. And almost everyone also thinks I’ve been dead wrong on gold.

I wish I were wrong. I wish gold has bottomed. But there is nothing, and I mean nothing, that convinces me that my models on gold are wrong. Only in the very short-term.

Keep in mind my models on gold have never missed one single major turning point since 1978. Not one.

There’s always a first time for everything, so with that in mind, I have been studiously watching the gold market this year — more than ever before — fully open to the idea that I could be wrong.

But as I just said, I have yet to be convinced that my models are wrong.

First, and foremost, the January low that did not happen merely means the gold market is undergoing a “cycle inversion” — one that pushes the final low off to the next important cyclic period for a major low, which is May.

Second, no major buy signals have yet been hit in gold during this cyclic rally inversion.

The most important of those buy signals are a weekly close above $1,320.40 followed by a weekly close above $1,449.50.

We are approaching the $1,320 level now. If gold closes above it on a Friday basis, you can expect a further rally. But I doubt very much gold can close above $1,449.50.

Third, the trading pattern of gold’s recent rally is not that bullish. In Elliott Wave terms, which I often use as an additional tool, gold is in a fourth wave upward correction, one that is accompanied by declining trading volume.

You can see it in this chart. Notice the sloppy upward slopes of the recent rally. It’s choppy, characteristic of a correction.

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At the bottom of the chart, notice how the volume of trade has been declining. That, too, is characteristic of a bounce and not the start of something much bigger.

Also note the Fibonacci extensions I have drawn on the chart for you. If gold’s rally ends near its current level — an “e” wave of a fourth wave upward correction — then the next leg down, the fifth wave, would find gold falling to at least $1,062.50, and more likely, even lower, to about the $967 level.

I find it fascinating that on my system models I have major support and sell signals at the $1,059 and $962 levels.

Derived from an entirely different model that has nothing to do with Elliott Wave Theory — when the two point to the same conclusions and support, I consider it a kind of double confirmation that my models are going to end up being right.

Fourth, the double bottom that’s been made in gold, at $1,180.81 last June and $1,184.50 on Dec. 31, are way too close together in terms of price, to hold.

Double-bottoms are a misnomer. They almost always give birth to a temporary rally, but then the market turns south again and demolishes the double-bottom, spiking to substantial new lows.

I believe the same thing is going to happen to the June/December 2013 double-bottom in gold (and silver as well).

There are many more reasons I believe the current rally is nothing more than a correction and that new lows are likely ahead, for both gold and silver.

But right now, I want to outline the two main scenarios for gold going forward.

Scenario A: Gold’s rally stalls at current levels or slightly higher, and then it resumes its downtrend. That’s the scenario right now according to my models. New lows will then be seen by May, and the bear market will finally be over.

Scenario B: I am dead wrong and gold continues higher, taking out the $1,320 level and then moves even higher, taking out $1,449.

In this scenario, gold would still retrace a very large part of its first wave up and decline back to the mid or low $1,200 area before resuming its new bull market.

In other words, even if I am dead wrong, we would have a chance to get on board at much lower levels.

What about any further rally from current levels? Should you get in now? That’s up to you. I can only tell you what I am personally doing and recommending. The answer is no.

I prefer to buy gold, or any market for that matter, when my models give me a 90 percent probability that the bottom is in. Right now, those models are saying that there is less than a 25 percent chance we have seen the bottom.

What about mining shares? Or silver, platinum and palladium?

Same applies. I do not believe any of them have bottomed.

I know it’s tough to watch gold go up and not participate. It’s tough for me too. But discipline and patience is key. And in the rare event that I’m wrong, keep in mind that …

One, you will still get a chance to get on board during a major pullback. And …

Two, gold is going much higher over the next few years, to over $5,000 an ounce. So if you miss a $100 or $150 move, it’s no big deal. It’s always far better to buy when the odds are on your side.”

Selain itu John C. Burford, editor di MoneyWeek Trader, yang yakin bahwa kini posisi emas sedang di persimpangan dan perlu waspada di posisi tersebut:

“Gold received a boost from Mr. Putin on Monday over the Ukraine affair. I spent the weekend trying to remember my school history lessons and recalled that in the Crimean War of the 1850s, Russia was defeated. But I believe the result would be a little different this time. That said, any shooting war seems like a very distant prospect, simply because nations today are so intertwined economically. Damage to one means damage to all.

Either way, gold is getting closer to my target at the $1400 area that I set last year.

I’ve also noticed that I’m no longer the only one with this figure as a target. I’m reading many such forecasts lately. This is inevitable when gold has been in a solid two-month rally, lifting prices by about $180. Remember, markets make opinions.

And contrarians use this knowledge to get on board a new trend early.

 

Why I’m cautious about the gold bull market

Two months ago, gold had few friends – bullish sentiment readings were around 5%, which is about as low as it could possibly reach. And that was the ideal time to start looking for reasons to go against the majority opinion. This bearish opinion was set in place by the relentless decline off the $1800 high in October 2012.

But I do not use sentiment readings alone to justify a trade! I only use them to confirm a trade which I have researched by my usual methods. Taken together, this is a powerful package.

In December, the bear market was over a year old and was fully entrenched in people’s minds. There was even a solid story behind the decline (stocks good, gold bad). So, just when the dog had herded all of the sheep into the bear’s pen, the bull appeared!

But two months later, bullish sentiment has rocketed to around the 80% area – a level where previous tops have been made. It is unusual to read a short-term bearish opinion today.

This is making me very cautious for the very same reason that I became bullish two months ago.


The market has hit an important resistance level

Another reason I’m proceeding with caution is that at this week’s high of $1350, the market has hit an important resistance level – the closing of the October gap, which I have pointed out before:

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But that’s not all. The $1350 level is also chart resistance. I have placed arrows where major market turns have occurred. The market believes the $1350 level is significant. My conclusion: it would take a big effort to push well above this level in the near-term.

Gazing at the daily chart above, I am having great difficulty placing any major Elliott waves on the rally!  In a two-month span of trading, this is very unusual, especially in the gold chart. The rally has been without even a minor setback. My conclusion: this rally could be the first large wave of an unfolding pattern – say an A wave of an A-B-C, or perhaps a wave within a very large triangle.

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Here are two possibilities (there are more!). My purple A and B waves are as I had them earlier this year. We are currently in purple wave C. This C wave could terminate here, or it could extend above my downtrend line.

If my excellent downtrend line is operative, and it reinforces the resistance mentioned above, then the market could bounce down from here. That seems to be the path of least resistance.

After that, the market could find support from late–to–the–party bulls who were waiting for a dip to get long. This would push the market back up to my downtrend line. And another big test of the bull market’s strength would ensue.

The other valid possibility is for the resistance at $1350 to be overcome within the next few days and produce this picture:

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Here, the market would move above my downtrend line to complete the C wave, which would also complete wave 4. My guess is that there are many buy-stops placed above $1350 by old bears who have retained their positions throughout the rally.

If this occurs, the market will then decline to new lows in wave 5, which should approach the $1000 area.

All of my analysis suggests that the market is at critical juncture as it closes in on my $1400 target. If the market does break above $1350 convincingly, then my best guess is that the market will fall short of the precise and now widely-touted $1400 target.

History lessons for traders

You may recall that in 2011 when the market was in a steep ascent, a very common target was $2000. The actual top fell $80 short. Anyone expecting a $2000 print is still waiting.

Likewise, in October 2012, when the market was also in full rally mode, a common target was $1800. The actual top fell $4 short before peeling away.

The lesson here? When a round-number target is widely anticipated, it is rarely hit on the nose. If you have a trade, it is usually best to look to exit as common targets are approached.

Finally, I will leave you with this thought. If, like me, you can remember the huge gold bull market in the 1970s that produced a spike high above $850 in late 1979, then today’s Russian invasion of a neighboring country should ring a few bells.

Back then, Russia invaded Afghanistan because of the problems created by insurgents in that country. Plus ça change. The concern in the West was that the Cold War could rapidly turn into a hot one. Tensions ran very high.

And the very date of the massive invasion across the border marked the exact top in gold. The knee-jerk reaction of the market to this event was to push gold higher. But buying quickly became exhausted and it was downhill from then on for many years. It was a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event.

But that was a grinding shooting war which resulted in Russia withdrawing with its tail between its legs. Today, conditions are vastly different. But all the same, could today’s events in the Ukraine herald at least a minor top in gold?”

Why should you keep on buying gold?

Beberapa paragraph berikut akan berisi mengenai komentar dari Grant Williams, portfolio manager di Vulpes Precious Metals Fund dan sekaligus strategy advisor untuk Vulpes Investment Management Singapura, bahwa tidak banyak orang yang sungguh mengetahui prinsip fundamental untuk investasi di emas (dan perak) – meskipun tak terhitung pembahasan mengenai emas dari para pengamat:

“So these anti-gold idiots are just that, idiots, or else they have the memory of a goldfish, because currencies come and currencies go, as sure as night follows day. It is the natural order of things. And as you can see, it’s not about trading gold to get rich or getting long gold or buying one by two call spreads or getting fancy, it literally is about protecting yourself in the end. It’s not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor.

It’s not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor.

That’s it. Right there.

If you talk to most people in the West about gold, they have no idea about the price or its recent direction. Narrow your sample audience down to those with a passing interest in finance, and they will likely know that gold is an awful investment whose price only goes down. (Had we conducted this little survey in 2011, the results would have been different, but that only illustrates the point.)

Ask a random group of people in the East about gold, however, and the conversation is completely different.

In this part of the world, people talk about how much gold they (or their parents or their grandparents) own. They will tell you stories of the first time they handled a gold coin (usually as a child), and they will know the price but not have much of an opinion on how good or bad gold’s performance has been — it will be far less relevant to them. They just know that you don’t trade gold; you own it.

To further illustrate this point, let’s talk about our old friends the world’s central banks.

The chart showing the 25 largest central bank holders of the world’s gold looks like this:

Nico-159If we take a look at the changes in those holdings between 2008 and 2013, an interesting phenomenon emerges: central banks in the East, as their reserves have grown, have been accumulating gold:

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Since 2008, the central banks of China, Russia, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the Philippines have increased their gold holdings on average by 119.67%.

Central banks continually rubbish gold as a worthless asset class because it constricts their ability to produce money at the push of a button. Not only that, but it offers their citizens the means to reduce their reliance upon a nation’s fiat currency — one has only to look at the goings-on in India last year to see what THAT looks like.

Deep down, though, central bankers know what gold is for and why you hold it. They know.

In 1999, a group of central banks came together through the Washington Agreement on Gold to jointly manage sales of the precious metal.

The Washington Agreement worked when central banks were selling their gold because there were always buyers, at lower and lower prices — those were the investors soaking up the bullion.

NOW we have a bunch of central banks aggressively trying to BUY gold; and what they’re finding (unsurprisingly) is that the investors aren’t sellers, so the only people left from whom to acquire gold are the traders — and they have a very limited supply of actual metal.

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When Western central bankers rubbish gold as a “barbarous relic” or, as in the case of Ben Bernanke shortly before he started his job at The Brookings Institution left office in January, admit to a complete lack of understanding of it, does it not strike you as strange that, having accumulated significant stockpiles of gold over the years, they aren’t in a hurry to swap any of it for paper money (well, with the notable exception perhaps of the United Kingdom, thanks to the antics of Gordon Brown, King of the Idiot Chancellors)?

It shouldn’t.

Gold is held by Western central banks for exactly the same reason individuals ought to hold it: protection.

Central banks are accumulating gold because it cannot go BANG! like fiat currencies do.

Individuals should be doing the same — not being sidetracked by the distractions.

It’s not about price. The story Jared shared with us demonstrates that beyond any doubt.

If you own gold, it will do all the heavy lifting for you when the time comes.

And that’s where Grant Williams gets really deep in his latest excellent letter…

TTMYGH_17_Feb_2014

 

Di akhir laporan ini, saya akan menyertakan 2 gambar lucu terkait krisis Ukraina saat ini:

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Nico-163Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 10 Maret 2014

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