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Sejauh Mana Emas Akan Jatuh?

“People need to be patient … Do I think in the next 12 to 18 months that precious metals prices will be much, much higher than we’re seeing today? Yes, I do. I just don’t think the current suppression scheme can be successfully prosecuted that much longer. If that were the case, Germany should have gotten all of their gold (back) and ABN AMRO and Rabobank shouldn’t have had to default. The strains in the system are obvious … This game will end. It will end when it can’t be prosecuted any longer. And based on the setup in the options series and other things that we look at, they (bullion banks) certainly would like to take it (the price) lower. These people are incredibly greedy – that’s a given. … My feeling is we still need that last washout on big volume … and then I think you’re going to see one of the greatest rallies of all time. You’re going to see an enormous tsunami to the upside, with gold probably hitting $3,000. And this could be within 12 to 18 months.”

 – William Kaye

Gb.1

Setelah kenaikan besar emas menembus strong resistance $1350, harganya tertahan di sekitar $1390 dan kemudian terkoreksi dalam 2 pekan terakhir ini.

Hal ini terjadi karena mulai redanya eskalasi geopolitik sejak Crimea bergabung ke Rusia serta sejumlah komentar dari pimpinan bank sentral AS Janet Yellen.

Yellen mengatakan bahwa bank sentral AS akan segera menaikkan suku bunga, sehingga memicu tekanan harga emas dan mendukung kenaikan dolar AS.

Bahkan, Yellen dengan jelas menyatakan bahwa bank sentral AS dapat saja menaikkan suku bunga paling tidak dalam kurun waktu sekitar 6 bulan setelah mengakhiri program stimulusnya, yang saat ini masih akan berjalan hingga kuartal terakhir 2014.

Hal ini mendorong nilai kas dan obligasi jangka pendek serta menekan daya tarik logam mulia, yang tidak memiliki yield.

Sehingga, FOMC-meeting Maret yang ternyata lebih hawkish dari yang diduga itu, memicu pembentukan puncak harga emas dalam jangka pendek, karena kemudian terjadi penurunan yang cukup cepat dan tajam.

Kenaikan emas tempo hari hanya menunjukkan kepada kita mengenai false-breakout klasik – harga menembus wilayah resistance hanya sementara untuk kemudian merosot kembali secara signifikan.

Dan penjelasan mengenai flase-breakout adalah bahwa biasanya harga akan cenderung berbalik arah dengan cepat. Seperti yang terlihat pada pergerakan harga emas saat ini.

Jadi emas, yang sejak kuartal pertama 2014 terus naik, membentuk puncak penting pada 16 Maret 2014, di $1391,96, dan kemudian turun kembali ke 1278.25 hingga saat ini.

Pertanyaannya adalah seberapa jauh harga emas akan turun. Mungkin masih akan turun lebih jauh jika kita yakin apa yang dikatakan Goldman Sachs yang belum lama ini merekomendasikan untuk “sell your gold”.

 

Berikut adalah laporan Damien Courvalin dari Goldman Sachs. yang nampaknya sangat bersentimen bearish pada emas:

Cold, Crimea & China: Transient supports to gold prices

The 2014 gold rally brought prices to their highest level since September before a more hawkish-than-expected March FOMC pushed prices sharply lower. Three distinct and in our view transient catalysts have driven this rally: (1) a sharp slowdown in US economic activity which we believe was weather driven, (2) high Chinese credit concerns, although ultimately bearish for gold demand through lower financing deals if realized, and (3) escalating tensions over Ukraine. While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both US and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration. Importantly, it would require a significant sustained slowdown in US growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower US gold prices over the next two years.

Re-acceleration in US activity will push gold prices lower

While we see clear catalysts for the recent rally in gold prices, this move has been large relative to US real rates which are a key input into our forecasts and benchmarking of gold prices. As a result, we see potential for a meaningful decline in gold prices towards the level implied by 10-year TIPS yields, which our rates strategists expect to rise further this year, and reiterate our year-end $1,050/toz gold price forecast. More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE, US economic releases are back the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing US growth.

Indian and Chinese gold demand unlikely to surprise to the upside

Weak Indian gold imports and surging Chinese imports were the most important shifts in EM gold demand last year, although these trade statistics likely overestimated shifts in local gold demand given reported gold smuggling into India and the use of gold in Chinese financing deals. While we see potential for these shifts to reverse in 2014, we estimate the net impact will not be meaningful to our gold outlook as: (1) India’s potential easing of gold import tariffs will likely remain modest given how much lower gold imports have contributed to its improved trade balance, (2) we expect a gradual unwind of gold backed financing deals.

Gb.2

Full note below:

 

GS_Gold

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Toby Connor, penulis pada Gold Scents, sebuah blog finansial yang sangat menekankan pada the gold secular bull market, belum lama ini merilis laporan luar biasa mengenai emas:

Sejak September 2013, saya sudah memprediksi bahwa harga emas akan melemah lebih lanjut dengan target antara $1000 dan $1100, dan nampaknya Connor juga demikian.

Silahkan lihat tulisannya yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, dan bertindaklah yang sesuai:

 

Gold Setup for a Final Takedown

“Precious metals are being heavily manipulated right now. When gold was turned back down and lost the breakout above the September FOMC manipulation top, which was a warning flag for me to take profits in our metals portfolio. The pre-market attack last Monday to break the intermediate trend line confirmed, at least for me, that the precious metals were again under attack and the forces at work in this market were going to try to extend the bear market.

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Notice how gold is now deviating from the rest of the commodity sector. I don’t think this would happen in a natural market.

Gb.4

I believe the metals are being set up to take a massive beating when the CRB drops down into its summer correction. During that correction gold will be moving into its yearly cycle low (YCL’s are the most damaging correction of the year for any asset). I fully expect the forces controlling the gold market will try to break that double bottom at $ 1180 and take gold down to $1050.

Notice that gold’s yearly cycle is left translated. Left translated cycles more often than not make a lower low. You have to hand it to these guys; they have played the metals perfectly over the last year and a half. They managed to manufacture a completely artificial bear market, and now that they have turned gold’s intermediate cycle back down they have set the stage to take gold down to $1050 this summer which has been their goal all along.

Gb.5

And I think the motivation for this is the same that it has always been. The profit potential is much greater from the $1000 level than it is from the $1800 level. Make no mistake the entire purpose of this year and a half long bear raid has been to manufacture a lower D-wave bottom, thereby massively increasing long side profit potential. In the process they’ve managed to also make some good money on the short side. I think they’ve also intentionally damaged the physical supply side of the metals market knowing that that would exacerbate the rally once the manipulation was released, and the secular trend is allowed to resume.

Not only have the banking cartel manufactured a lucrative short trade, they have damaged the physical market enough that we will likely see a huge move from $1050 back to $1800-$2000 over a 4-6 month period once the manipulation is removed at the yearly cycle low and these banks flip sides and position long.

I think over the next three months J.P. Morgan, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs are going to stretch the rubber band so tight in the metals market that when they finally release it it’s going to generate a surge comparable to what we just witnessed in the coffee market. Unlike the coffee market though, the metals market is big enough that these players can take large positions and make serious money off of that move.

Gb.6

Predicting where this market is going to go in the short term would require inside information as to the banking cartel’s intentions next week. Unfortunately I doubt they are going to send us a memo on that. However I think we can probably assume that the third daily cycle once it rolls over, is going to be devastating to the precious metals market. And I expect we will also have a fourth daily cycle before the yearly cycle low is complete. That fourth daily cycle will probably take gold back down to $1050 and a final bear market bottom if the cartel has its way.

Gb.7

So while I know this is tough to hear, as most of you are gold bugs, I am confident that the banking cartel has a purpose, and that purpose is to set up what will probably be one of the most lucrative long side trades in the metals of this entire secular bull market. Our job right now is to be patient and wait for that yearly cycle low later this summer. I think that low is going to drop at least down to retest $1200, and if the cartel has its way, they will push gold back to $1050 before this is over. For the next several weeks it’s going to be safer to trade oil, or corn, or copper, etc. But step aside from the metals and let the cartel do its thing. In the end they are going to manufacture a truly amazing opportunity as long as one has the patience to let them finish their business before going back into metal trades.”

Untuk jangka waktu yang lebih pendek, seperti Anda lihat pada grafik terakhir Tobby Connor di atas, harga emas bisa saja naik dari setiap areal low pada siklus bearish mendatang.

Untuk itu, sebaiknya kita baca juga laporan menarik lainnya dari John C. Burford, seorang editor pada MoneyWeek Trader, yang mengatakan bahwa harga emas sudah dekat di areal terendahnya:

 

The best time to trade against hedge funds

“Hedge funds are among the biggest players in the market, so we need to keep track of their activities. As I have pointed out, they are largely trend-followers. They are momentum traders and use trading programs that track the momentum of the market.
And because they trade in huge quantities, they are not as nimble as small traders. This means that it takes much longer for the hedgies to change tack – and that’s one reason they are often wrong at market turns. So today I’ll tell you how investors can benefit from their mistakes.

 

Why small traders love a good story

One of the best times to take advantage of the hedge funds is when a story can be built around a particular bullish or bearish stance.

Why? Because small traders just love a good story! And this group can enhance market moves. In December, they had fallen in love with the ‘gold is bad’ story. Sentiment measures were pointing to record low levels of bearishness, with the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) reaching an extreme low at the 5% level at one point.

There were widespread forecasts of sub-$1000 gold.

Then in January the market started turning up and sentiment turned with it.

I used this information to position on the long side of the market. The oversold condition was correcting as a new gold story was finding favor (gold is good). This new story was based on the heightened Ukraine conflict and reports that China was buying physical metal in volume.

The hedge funds were at the fore in predicting $1400 gold, which was my original target in early January.

And as the market approached this target, DSI readings had reached an extreme 85% bullish level.

But as I wrote, this target was missed (as I forecast) and in just ten days, the market fell $100 to last week’s low of $1285.

 

How to know what hedge funds are doing

Luckily, we don’t have to guess what hedge funds are up to – we have the COT data.

In my 24 March email, the market was declining off the $1388 high where the COT data was showing that the hedge funds had built up a four-to-one bullish position.

Here is the latest COT data which refers to the 25 March picture:

Gb.8The non-commercials (largely hedge funds) sold a large chunk of their longs and increased their shorts last week. That means they now hold only three longs to one short.

But has this driven out the froth so that the market can stage a rally?

Will the gold support hold?

This was the chart I had last time:

Gb.9If the larger trend was still up, then I expect the decline to have an A-B-C form.


And if an A-B-C did form, a positive momentum divergence would add strength to the ongoing rally case.

This is the updated chart this morning:

Gb.10Since last time, the market has declined on cue – and precisely to the meeting of the tramline and the Fibonacci 50% level, where the decline has retraced 50% of the entire rally off the 31 December low.

Remember, the 50% level is a common retracement if the main trend is still intact. Also, if my tramlines are still working, there should be a kiss on it before the uptrend resumes.

And the positive momentum divergence I had suggested last time has appeared (red bar).

 

Gold is starting to look interesting

One other piece of information: At last week’s low, wave C equals wave A in height. Remember, another common relationship in an A-B-C corrective pattern is the equality of the A and C waves. This is significant.

So it appears the odds are building up for a bounce from near current levels if my C wave has ended.

Not only that, but the latest DSI readings have fallen sharply off the bullish extremes of two weeks ago.

This is starting to look interesting!”

 

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, adalah 2 gambar lucu mengenai anjing dan kucing, untuk Anda supaya selalu ceria hari ini:

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Gb.12

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat 02 April 2014

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