“The anomaly in gold was that it went up 12 years in a row, which is extremely unusual. I know of no asset in history that’s gone up 12 years without a decline. So I suspect the correction in gold would also be an anomaly given that it’s had this strange action for 12 years. It’s been correcting for a couple of years now. I don’t think that correction is over given that there are still many, many people who are convinced that gold can never go down. Probably there’s less speculation now because, as you know, speculators like rising markets; they don’t particularly like stagnant or declining markets. I still have the feeling that there are too many people in the market who think gold is holy; they just cannot conceive that gold can go down and stay down. So I have the feeling that there’s still speculation in the market. What I would hope would happen is what happens to most markets, eventually. Many people just give up and say, “I never want to own that again as long as I live.” I don’t have the feeling that’s happened in the gold market yet. If and when that happens there will be a very nice bottom and gold will really take off for the rest of its bull market.”
— Jim Rogers
Sudah lewat 4 bulan harga emas bergerak turun mendekati kembali areal terendah tahun ini dan potensial mengalami tekanan pertamanya untuk basis tahunan selama 13 tahun terakhir.
Namun, harga emas setidaknya pernah mencoba naik cepat pada Oktober lalu dari areal sekitar $1260 ke $1360. Namun tidak berkelanjutan karena justru meningkatkan kembali tekanan jual sehingga kemudian saat ini mendekatkan harga emas kembali ke areal rendahnya.
Sejak September, harga emas di pasar spot tercatat mengalami tekanan lebih dari 9%, jadi bukan saatnya untuk membeli emas saat ini.
Secara umum dapat dikatakan bahwa belakangan ini harga emas lebih mudah untuk jatuh dan melihat hal ini terjadi di waktu yang biasanya merupakan musim kenaikan harga emas, maka ini bukanlah sebuah indikasi bagus untuk pergerakan emas memasuki tahun 2014.
Tanpa bermaksud lain tapi jika kapal sedang tenggelam, yang terbaik yang dilakukan adalah lompat selama masih ada tempat di sekoci. Sehingga kita akan jauh dari resiko.
Greg Guenthner, editor dari The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening, dalam beberapa bulan ini memiliki prediksi tepat untuk harga emas.
Oleh karenanya, analisanya mengenai harga emas baru-baru ini akan menjadi sajian utama laporan ini:
“Gold’s not exactly sparking these days…
The yellow metal has absorbed some serious damage so far this month, completely negating the late October run to $1,360.
But the real danger zone comes near $1,200. You probably remember gold’s low water mark for 2013 is $1,179. But it didn’t stay there for long.
In fact, there were only two days in late June where gold dipped below round-number support to register this low.
Each time it slipped into the $1,100’s, buyers stepped in before the close. That helped spark a 2-month rally that shot gold futures from $1,200 to $1,420…
Bottom line: $1,200 will be a critical test for gold in the coming weeks.
If it fails to hold, get ready for another quick and painful move lower, bringing us one step closer to my $1,100-$1,000 price target.”
Selain itu Alexander Green, seorang Chief Investment Strategist dari The Oxford Club, yang juga masih berpandangan bearish terhadap emas.
Seperti ditulis dalam artikelnya tanggal 11 November 2013, bahwa tekanan emas saat ini tidak menyenangkan bagi mereka yang menyukainya (gold bugs):
Why Gold’s Tumble Will Continue
“All that glitters is not gold. Especially gold itself, these days.
From its peak on Aug. 22, 2011, gold has declined more than 30%. And there are troubling signs this trend will continue.
Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and against falling equities. The problem is that inflation has been MIA lately and stocks are doing anything but falling. Indeed, the S&P 500 is up 25% this year.
Why do I believe gold will maintain this trend in the near term? Three reasons: central bank selling, hot money turned cold, and the increasing realization that gold may not be the best hedge against future inflation.
Banks Are Selling
Let’s start with the central banks. Over the past four years, they have increasingly used gold to diversify their foreign reserves. This seemed like a good idea when the greenback was anemic. But it has been much healthier lately. The dollar recently hit a three-year high.
Now it appears that central bankers have changed their minds. In September, Russia’s central bank sold gold for the first time in a year. Since the start of 2010, Russia has accounted for 30% of all gold purchases made by central banks that report to the IMF. And Russia is not alone. Central banks are on track to cut back their gold-buying by 34% in 2013, according to metals consulting firm Thomson Reuters GFMS.
As world central banks are the largest players in the gold market, this is bad news for gold bugs.
Hedge funds – with their massive leverage – are the next biggest players and it looks like they are having second thoughts too. The former market leader managed by John Paulson has lost serious money recently and been hit with large redemptions. Jeffrey Vinik closed his hedge fund altogether and returned several billion dollars to investors after suffering from poorly timed gold bets.
Individual investors tend to think of gold as their “forever” investment. But hedge fund managers think forever is three consecutive quarters. They will not be long-term holders of gold if it continues to wilt. You can bet on that.
There are signs that even small investors are hitting the exits. One of the reasons for gold’s significant advance in the 2000s was the advent of new ETFs that made holding gold easy. (Gold can be expensive to store.)
But the fact that your storage costs are lower doesn’t loom large in the equation when your principal value is sinking.
And sinking it is. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that a net $22.14 billion has left the SPDR Gold Shares ETF alone this year.
A Few Caveats
At this point, I should make my standard caveat. Gold is not easy to value since you can’t use metrics like yield to maturity, book value or dividend yield. So its future performance is always a question mark (even more than stocks and bonds).
Furthermore, gold (and gold shares) should be part of any well-diversified portfolio. So I’m not making the case for bailing on gold altogether.
But even at its peak in 2011, gold was still below its 1980s inflation-adjusted peak of more than $2,300. So while gold has traditionally offered a long-term hedge against inflation, it’s important to understand that the long term can be very long indeed.
Own gold for the long haul. But know there are other inflation hedges that are guaranteed to work – Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, for instance – have historically worked better. I’m referring, of course, to stocks, the greatest inflation hedge of the last 200 years.”
What Do the Charts Say?
Untuk melihat laporan emas yang luar biasa, mari kita kembali ke Greg Guenthner, yang memproyeksikan masih ada tekanan emas lebih lanjut beserta saran investasinya:
“Gold futures are getting uglier by the day…
And the weakness you’re seeing in the yellow metal isn’t over just yet.
Gold is sick. Every single recovery since the initial dump below $1,550 seven months ago was met with more selling. Failing to hold $1,350 last month let the air out of any potential comeback heading into 2014. The downtrend remains intact.
If gold continues to push lower in the coming weeks, we could very well see it break below the June lows before the year is up…
The losses are beginning to mount. Gold just recorded its biggest weekly slide since September. As of early this morning, gold futures are just $32 away from critical support at $1,200.
Late last week, I told you the real danger zone for gold is $1,200—not the actual lows registered near$1,179 in June. That’s because there were only two days in late June where gold dipped below round-number support. Each time it slipped into the $1,100′s, buyers stepped in before the close. That helped spark a 2-month rally that shot gold futures from $1,200 to $1,420. But that move stalled out—leading to this next leg lower…
You have to stay away from any gold trades on the long side for the time being. These big downdrafts in are quick and relentless. Futures are in free-fall—and gold miners are looking even worse. Prepare for gold to eventually sink closer to $1,000 as this downtrend plays out.
Looking ahead, $1,200 could become a battle ground in the coming weeks. If gold fails at support, we’ll probably see another big move lower. Don’t try to pick bottoms here. That’ll only lead to unnecessary pain and suffering for your brokerage account…”
Selanjutnya Toby Connor, penulis Gold Scents, sebuah blog finansial yang khusus untuk the gold secular bull market, mulai benar-benar mewaspadai bahwa tekanan emas akan dimulai kembali:
“The first goal will be to take gold back down to test this summer’s $1179 bottom. If that bottom can be broken (and if gold gets anywhere near that level I think we can automatically assume we’re going to see another massive contract dump in the overnight market to make sure it does get broken), gold will collapse in another waterfall decline that drops it all the way back to the prior C-wave top at $1030.
The next week or two are going to be dangerous in my opinion. If the bears can get some downside traction, traders need to get out of the way, get back to cash, and prepare to jump on board the bull at $1000 which I believe is probably the ultimate goal of this manipulation event that has been going on all year.”
Seperti biasa di akhir laporan, agar Anda tetap ceria, berikut adalah 2 gambar dan pantun jenaka dari William Banzai:
The Kleptos are now giving thanks
For money that flows to their banks
Their hunger for more
Is killing the poor
As the global economy tanks
The Limerick King
Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!
Dibuat Tanggal 29 November 2013