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Emas: Sudah Saatnya Beli Atau… Waspada?

March 11th, 2014 No comments

“There is a total supply of gold in the world. But to corner a market or squeeze a market, you don’t need to buy all the gold; you just need to buy the floating supply. Think of all the gold in the world, it’s about 170,000 tons. Think of a little sliver on top of it that is the floating supply available for trading. Gold that’s in the Comex or JPMorgan or GLD vaults is available for trading. Gold purchased by the Chinese will not see the light of day again for the next 300 years, and is not available for trading. So with the gold going from West to East, and from GLD to China, the total amount of gold is unchanged, but the floating supply is declining rapidly. This means that the paper gold that sits on top of the floating supply is becoming more and more unstable and vulnerable to a short squeeze, because there is not enough physical gold to  support it. So that’s likely to collapse at one point and lead to a short squeeze and heavy buying.”

– James Rickards, the author of the national bestseller “Currency Wars”

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Belakangan ini mungkin sebagian besar para pecinta emas berharap-harap cemas, seiring dengan naiknya harga logam mulia menembus $1300/troy ounce untuk pertama kalinya sejak November 2013, waktu menjelang the Fed mulai melakukan QE-taper.

Selain itu kenaikan harga emas juga menembus MA-200 hari untuk pertama kalinya dalam kurun waktu sekitar setahun, seperti Anda dapat lihat di grafik di bawah ini:

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Sementara di awal pekan lalu, kenaikan harga emas mencapai level tertinggi dalam 4 bulan di $1354,80.

Dampak dari keputusan the Fed untuk mengurangi stimulus berupa program pembelian obligasi, yang adalah katalisator kenaikan harga emas sebelumnya, menyebabkan para trader cenderung menahan diri berbulan-bulan lamanya.

Emas pun merespon negatif terhadap awal QE-taper (17-18/Des) tahun lalu dan mengalami tekanan besar. Sehingga mengakumulasi penurunan emas di tahun 2013 sebesar 28%, dan merupakan penurunan tahunan pertamanya dalam 13 tahun.

Kemudian, hingga saat ini, harga emas cenderung naik sejak penurunan tersebut.

Namun di beberapa pekan ke depan perlu mewaspadai tantangan yang akan dihadapi kenaikan harga emas tersebut.

Jika kenaikan mampu bertahan kembali di areal kuncinya, yang adalah resistance di $1350, maka kenaikan dapat berlanjut.

Level tersebut menarik untuk diperhatikan dalam beberapa hari ke depan.

Dan pada Maret ini, kenaikan harga emas telah dua kali mencoba areal $1350 tersebut, kemudian masing-masing diikuti kejatuhan ke areal $1330an. Dan (laporan ini dbuat, di sesi Asia Senin 10/Mar/2014), harga emas bergerak di kisaran $1330 hingga $1340).

Bahkan, untuk mengingatkan, bahwa constructive price action emas tahun ini menunjukkan bahwa emas masih dalam bear market-nya saat ini.

Saya akan lanjutkan pandangan emas saya, yang masih melihat bahwa kenaikannya belakangan ini hanya sebuah bear market rally sampai ada konfirmasi yang menunjukkannya.

What Do the Charts Say?

Larry Edelson, seorang ahli emas dan logam mulia terkemuka dunia dan editor pada Real Wealth Report, Power Portfolio serta Gold and Silver Trader, memberikan peringatan keras di tulisan terbarunya yang berjudul: Don’t Be Fooled by Gold’s Glitter.

Berikut tulisannya:

“Almost everyone thinks gold has bottomed. And almost everyone also thinks I’ve been dead wrong on gold.

I wish I were wrong. I wish gold has bottomed. But there is nothing, and I mean nothing, that convinces me that my models on gold are wrong. Only in the very short-term.

Keep in mind my models on gold have never missed one single major turning point since 1978. Not one.

There’s always a first time for everything, so with that in mind, I have been studiously watching the gold market this year — more than ever before — fully open to the idea that I could be wrong.

But as I just said, I have yet to be convinced that my models are wrong.

First, and foremost, the January low that did not happen merely means the gold market is undergoing a “cycle inversion” — one that pushes the final low off to the next important cyclic period for a major low, which is May.

Second, no major buy signals have yet been hit in gold during this cyclic rally inversion.

The most important of those buy signals are a weekly close above $1,320.40 followed by a weekly close above $1,449.50.

We are approaching the $1,320 level now. If gold closes above it on a Friday basis, you can expect a further rally. But I doubt very much gold can close above $1,449.50.

Third, the trading pattern of gold’s recent rally is not that bullish. In Elliott Wave terms, which I often use as an additional tool, gold is in a fourth wave upward correction, one that is accompanied by declining trading volume.

You can see it in this chart. Notice the sloppy upward slopes of the recent rally. It’s choppy, characteristic of a correction.

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At the bottom of the chart, notice how the volume of trade has been declining. That, too, is characteristic of a bounce and not the start of something much bigger.

Also note the Fibonacci extensions I have drawn on the chart for you. If gold’s rally ends near its current level — an “e” wave of a fourth wave upward correction — then the next leg down, the fifth wave, would find gold falling to at least $1,062.50, and more likely, even lower, to about the $967 level.

I find it fascinating that on my system models I have major support and sell signals at the $1,059 and $962 levels.

Derived from an entirely different model that has nothing to do with Elliott Wave Theory — when the two point to the same conclusions and support, I consider it a kind of double confirmation that my models are going to end up being right.

Fourth, the double bottom that’s been made in gold, at $1,180.81 last June and $1,184.50 on Dec. 31, are way too close together in terms of price, to hold.

Double-bottoms are a misnomer. They almost always give birth to a temporary rally, but then the market turns south again and demolishes the double-bottom, spiking to substantial new lows.

I believe the same thing is going to happen to the June/December 2013 double-bottom in gold (and silver as well).

There are many more reasons I believe the current rally is nothing more than a correction and that new lows are likely ahead, for both gold and silver.

But right now, I want to outline the two main scenarios for gold going forward.

Scenario A: Gold’s rally stalls at current levels or slightly higher, and then it resumes its downtrend. That’s the scenario right now according to my models. New lows will then be seen by May, and the bear market will finally be over.

Scenario B: I am dead wrong and gold continues higher, taking out the $1,320 level and then moves even higher, taking out $1,449.

In this scenario, gold would still retrace a very large part of its first wave up and decline back to the mid or low $1,200 area before resuming its new bull market.

In other words, even if I am dead wrong, we would have a chance to get on board at much lower levels.

What about any further rally from current levels? Should you get in now? That’s up to you. I can only tell you what I am personally doing and recommending. The answer is no.

I prefer to buy gold, or any market for that matter, when my models give me a 90 percent probability that the bottom is in. Right now, those models are saying that there is less than a 25 percent chance we have seen the bottom.

What about mining shares? Or silver, platinum and palladium?

Same applies. I do not believe any of them have bottomed.

I know it’s tough to watch gold go up and not participate. It’s tough for me too. But discipline and patience is key. And in the rare event that I’m wrong, keep in mind that …

One, you will still get a chance to get on board during a major pullback. And …

Two, gold is going much higher over the next few years, to over $5,000 an ounce. So if you miss a $100 or $150 move, it’s no big deal. It’s always far better to buy when the odds are on your side.”

Selain itu John C. Burford, editor di MoneyWeek Trader, yang yakin bahwa kini posisi emas sedang di persimpangan dan perlu waspada di posisi tersebut:

“Gold received a boost from Mr. Putin on Monday over the Ukraine affair. I spent the weekend trying to remember my school history lessons and recalled that in the Crimean War of the 1850s, Russia was defeated. But I believe the result would be a little different this time. That said, any shooting war seems like a very distant prospect, simply because nations today are so intertwined economically. Damage to one means damage to all.

Either way, gold is getting closer to my target at the $1400 area that I set last year.

I’ve also noticed that I’m no longer the only one with this figure as a target. I’m reading many such forecasts lately. This is inevitable when gold has been in a solid two-month rally, lifting prices by about $180. Remember, markets make opinions.

And contrarians use this knowledge to get on board a new trend early.

 

Why I’m cautious about the gold bull market

Two months ago, gold had few friends – bullish sentiment readings were around 5%, which is about as low as it could possibly reach. And that was the ideal time to start looking for reasons to go against the majority opinion. This bearish opinion was set in place by the relentless decline off the $1800 high in October 2012.

But I do not use sentiment readings alone to justify a trade! I only use them to confirm a trade which I have researched by my usual methods. Taken together, this is a powerful package.

In December, the bear market was over a year old and was fully entrenched in people’s minds. There was even a solid story behind the decline (stocks good, gold bad). So, just when the dog had herded all of the sheep into the bear’s pen, the bull appeared!

But two months later, bullish sentiment has rocketed to around the 80% area – a level where previous tops have been made. It is unusual to read a short-term bearish opinion today.

This is making me very cautious for the very same reason that I became bullish two months ago.


The market has hit an important resistance level

Another reason I’m proceeding with caution is that at this week’s high of $1350, the market has hit an important resistance level – the closing of the October gap, which I have pointed out before:

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But that’s not all. The $1350 level is also chart resistance. I have placed arrows where major market turns have occurred. The market believes the $1350 level is significant. My conclusion: it would take a big effort to push well above this level in the near-term.

Gazing at the daily chart above, I am having great difficulty placing any major Elliott waves on the rally!  In a two-month span of trading, this is very unusual, especially in the gold chart. The rally has been without even a minor setback. My conclusion: this rally could be the first large wave of an unfolding pattern – say an A wave of an A-B-C, or perhaps a wave within a very large triangle.

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Here are two possibilities (there are more!). My purple A and B waves are as I had them earlier this year. We are currently in purple wave C. This C wave could terminate here, or it could extend above my downtrend line.

If my excellent downtrend line is operative, and it reinforces the resistance mentioned above, then the market could bounce down from here. That seems to be the path of least resistance.

After that, the market could find support from late–to–the–party bulls who were waiting for a dip to get long. This would push the market back up to my downtrend line. And another big test of the bull market’s strength would ensue.

The other valid possibility is for the resistance at $1350 to be overcome within the next few days and produce this picture:

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Here, the market would move above my downtrend line to complete the C wave, which would also complete wave 4. My guess is that there are many buy-stops placed above $1350 by old bears who have retained their positions throughout the rally.

If this occurs, the market will then decline to new lows in wave 5, which should approach the $1000 area.

All of my analysis suggests that the market is at critical juncture as it closes in on my $1400 target. If the market does break above $1350 convincingly, then my best guess is that the market will fall short of the precise and now widely-touted $1400 target.

History lessons for traders

You may recall that in 2011 when the market was in a steep ascent, a very common target was $2000. The actual top fell $80 short. Anyone expecting a $2000 print is still waiting.

Likewise, in October 2012, when the market was also in full rally mode, a common target was $1800. The actual top fell $4 short before peeling away.

The lesson here? When a round-number target is widely anticipated, it is rarely hit on the nose. If you have a trade, it is usually best to look to exit as common targets are approached.

Finally, I will leave you with this thought. If, like me, you can remember the huge gold bull market in the 1970s that produced a spike high above $850 in late 1979, then today’s Russian invasion of a neighboring country should ring a few bells.

Back then, Russia invaded Afghanistan because of the problems created by insurgents in that country. Plus ça change. The concern in the West was that the Cold War could rapidly turn into a hot one. Tensions ran very high.

And the very date of the massive invasion across the border marked the exact top in gold. The knee-jerk reaction of the market to this event was to push gold higher. But buying quickly became exhausted and it was downhill from then on for many years. It was a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event.

But that was a grinding shooting war which resulted in Russia withdrawing with its tail between its legs. Today, conditions are vastly different. But all the same, could today’s events in the Ukraine herald at least a minor top in gold?”

Why should you keep on buying gold?

Beberapa paragraph berikut akan berisi mengenai komentar dari Grant Williams, portfolio manager di Vulpes Precious Metals Fund dan sekaligus strategy advisor untuk Vulpes Investment Management Singapura, bahwa tidak banyak orang yang sungguh mengetahui prinsip fundamental untuk investasi di emas (dan perak) – meskipun tak terhitung pembahasan mengenai emas dari para pengamat:

“So these anti-gold idiots are just that, idiots, or else they have the memory of a goldfish, because currencies come and currencies go, as sure as night follows day. It is the natural order of things. And as you can see, it’s not about trading gold to get rich or getting long gold or buying one by two call spreads or getting fancy, it literally is about protecting yourself in the end. It’s not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor.

It’s not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor.

That’s it. Right there.

If you talk to most people in the West about gold, they have no idea about the price or its recent direction. Narrow your sample audience down to those with a passing interest in finance, and they will likely know that gold is an awful investment whose price only goes down. (Had we conducted this little survey in 2011, the results would have been different, but that only illustrates the point.)

Ask a random group of people in the East about gold, however, and the conversation is completely different.

In this part of the world, people talk about how much gold they (or their parents or their grandparents) own. They will tell you stories of the first time they handled a gold coin (usually as a child), and they will know the price but not have much of an opinion on how good or bad gold’s performance has been — it will be far less relevant to them. They just know that you don’t trade gold; you own it.

To further illustrate this point, let’s talk about our old friends the world’s central banks.

The chart showing the 25 largest central bank holders of the world’s gold looks like this:

Nico-159If we take a look at the changes in those holdings between 2008 and 2013, an interesting phenomenon emerges: central banks in the East, as their reserves have grown, have been accumulating gold:

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Since 2008, the central banks of China, Russia, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the Philippines have increased their gold holdings on average by 119.67%.

Central banks continually rubbish gold as a worthless asset class because it constricts their ability to produce money at the push of a button. Not only that, but it offers their citizens the means to reduce their reliance upon a nation’s fiat currency — one has only to look at the goings-on in India last year to see what THAT looks like.

Deep down, though, central bankers know what gold is for and why you hold it. They know.

In 1999, a group of central banks came together through the Washington Agreement on Gold to jointly manage sales of the precious metal.

The Washington Agreement worked when central banks were selling their gold because there were always buyers, at lower and lower prices — those were the investors soaking up the bullion.

NOW we have a bunch of central banks aggressively trying to BUY gold; and what they’re finding (unsurprisingly) is that the investors aren’t sellers, so the only people left from whom to acquire gold are the traders — and they have a very limited supply of actual metal.

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When Western central bankers rubbish gold as a “barbarous relic” or, as in the case of Ben Bernanke shortly before he started his job at The Brookings Institution left office in January, admit to a complete lack of understanding of it, does it not strike you as strange that, having accumulated significant stockpiles of gold over the years, they aren’t in a hurry to swap any of it for paper money (well, with the notable exception perhaps of the United Kingdom, thanks to the antics of Gordon Brown, King of the Idiot Chancellors)?

It shouldn’t.

Gold is held by Western central banks for exactly the same reason individuals ought to hold it: protection.

Central banks are accumulating gold because it cannot go BANG! like fiat currencies do.

Individuals should be doing the same — not being sidetracked by the distractions.

It’s not about price. The story Jared shared with us demonstrates that beyond any doubt.

If you own gold, it will do all the heavy lifting for you when the time comes.

And that’s where Grant Williams gets really deep in his latest excellent letter…

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Di akhir laporan ini, saya akan menyertakan 2 gambar lucu terkait krisis Ukraina saat ini:

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Nico-163Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 10 Maret 2014

Categories: Emas Tags:

Permintaan Emas Cina Tidak Akan Pernah Berhenti

February 19th, 2014 No comments

“We believe that the resolution of the disconnect between paper and physical gold will be a dramatic upside re-pricing of the real thing. Most important is the steady migration of physical gold bars held in Western vaults to China and other parts of Asia, where they seem unlikely to be returned, other than for exorbitant ransom.”

– John Hathaway: 07 January 2014

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“Gold is the wild card. The gold price and investor positioning today reflects near unanimous negative sentiment on gold’s prospects, based on expected higher global interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar as the U.S. economy recovers. Any disappointment to this scenario will likely drive the gold price higher, making it one of the better hedges against the risk the U.S. economic recovery falters.”

– Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy for ETF Securities

 

Paper gold (investasi emas di pasar finansial) di negara-negara maju mungkin bergerak berdasarkan keinginan-keinginan para pemburu keuntungan, namun ketika investasi di pasar emas fisik dan minat Cina terhadapnya, maka satu kata yang menggambarkan pergerakannya adalah: unstoppable.

Di awal laporan ini, mari kita simak dengan seksama komentar salah seorang yang memiliki proyeksi akurat untuk pergerakan harga emas, seperti yang dijelaskannya dalam wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) belum lama ini.

Di bawah ini adalah yang dikatakan oleh William Kaye, yang 25 tahun lalu bekerja di Goldman Sachs di bagian mergers and acquisitions, berupa keyakinannya mengenai apa yang sedang terjadi di pasar emas dan bagaimana potensi harganya ke depan:

“The longer-term picture (for gold) is extremely bright.  The picture in China itself is phenomenal.  Right now China is, in terms of final demand, consuming virtually 100% of non-China global production of gold.  This is an amazing thing when you think about it….

China doesn’t export anything.  [People] need to think about that.  Chinese production is estimated at slightly over 400 metric tons (each year), which is not huge, but they don’t export that (gold).  All of that (gold) by law belongs to the People’s Bank of China, and if my sources are right, doesn’t even go through Shanghai.

Everything that is brought into China that isn’t produced domestically, and doesn’t go directly to the PBOC, is required by law in China to go through Shanghai.  So if we track deliveries into Shanghai, final deliveries into the market were almost 2,200 tons last year.

Well, since China’s production is a little over 400 tons, and total global production is estimated at between 2,600 and 2,700 tons, what that tells you is that China accounted for approximately 100% of all external (global gold) production — all non-China production.

So where is everything else coming from (to fill the rest of global gold demand)?  Where is the 1,200 tons that, including smuggling, went into India?  How about all of the gold that went into Russia and into the Middle-East?  This is what people need to focus on.

And this is why what we are currently seeing can’t continue indefinitely.  The question is, at what stage does gold actually get liberated?  The setup would appear, as I look at the options structure and other things, that the bottom should be either late this quarter or possibly second quarter.  I’m doubtful that it can extend past that unless the setup changes dramatically from what I am looking at at the moment.”

I think for people who have enough money to live on, they’ve got cash and other assets they can draw on, that are looking for a deeply undervalued investment that has potentially a very high payoff over the next 1, 2, 3, 5 years, gold and precious metals are, in my book, unparalleled.  That’s how we’re set up.  This is something we’ve researched very carefully, and this is where I’ve got my own money.”

Selanjutnya Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang juga sering melaporkan demand Cina terhadap emas.

Berikut adalah 2 laporannya belum lama ini, yang tentunya layak Anda perhatikan:

1)   Overheard In A Gold Vault In Singapore: “We Need Additional Capacity”, China’s Appetite Is “Insatiable” (January 28th)

Yesterday we covered the supply side of the gold market from the perspective of global mints, which were kind enough to advise that they “can’t meet the demand, even if we work overtime.” Today, courtesy of Bloomberg, we take a closer look at the demand aspect of the physical gold market, which as most know by now can be described with just one word: China.

But first, while we already know that global mints are working 24/7 and still are unable to meet record demand, in spite of or due to, plunging prices of paper gold, here is how the market looks from the perspective of one of the biggest gold refiners in the world: MKS SA’s PAMP refiner in Switzerland, “whose bullion sales to China surged to a record as demand rose for coins, bars and jewelry. PAMP Managing Director Mehdi Barkhordar, who credited China’s “insatiable” appetite for a sales boost of as much as 20 percent last year, remains optimistic even as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows. “The demand in China is off its peak, but still respectable,” he said last week.”

Off its peak? Really – where? Certainly not in Singapore where the largest provider of precious-metals logistics and storage, Brink’s, is adding room on top of a vault the company opened in 2012 at the Singapore Freeport building next to Changi International Airport, with a sleek, modernist lobby and a twisting, polished-steel sculpture by Ron Arad that stands 5 meters high. Inside, the gold bars are protected by prison-like barriers, two body scanners and 8-ton, fireproof gates.

      Explain to us how this is “off its peak”:

“We need additional capacity, so we have to take further space,” said Baskaran Narayanan, the 45-year-old Singapore general manager for Richmond, Virginia-based Brink’s. “There’s a surge in demand for precious metals in Asia, and one can see the focus and movement from the west to the east.”

A new Brink’s vault in Singapore set to open by March will be the company’s fifth in the city state, said Narayanan, who spent two decades in the security industry. The 154-year-old company also is adding space in Hong Kong and mainland China to meet growing storage demand, said Guy Bullen, the firm’s senior vice president for the Asia-Pacific region. Brink’s said Asia-Pacific revenue grew 12 percent to $128.9 million in the first nine months of 2013, more than any other region. Deutsche Bank said in June it started a storage facility in Singapore that can hold as much as 200 tons, its largest outside London. UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, opened one to keep bars for its wealth-management clients in Asia. In Shanghai, Malca-Amit Global Ltd. opened a vault in November that can store 2,000 tons, or a pile valued at $80 billion.

      Oh, that kind of “off its peak” – we get it now.

Of course, the biggest paradox is that China continues to be grateful to the US momentum-investing community, which continues to dump paper-gold representations such as the GLD ETF, and as Bloomberg reports, “investor sales through gold ETPs wiped $73.4 billion from the value of the funds last year and holdings reached the lowest since October 2009 this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETP and which is listed in New York, accounted for 64 percent of global sales last year.” And as a result of the ongoing liquidation of paper gold, those who couldn’t care less about monthly or annual momentum-boosted P&L (so eliminate the entire US hedge fund community), and just care about buying brick after brick of physical gold at the lowest possible prices are thanking their lucky stars they have a bunch of dumb 2 and 20 chasing paper sellers to do their job for them, especially if and when the PBOC does announce the real amount of gold reserves it has accumulate over the past five years (which are now order of magnitude above the official ~1000 tons of gold last disclosed in 2009).

So going back to the Chinese demand, and the entire topic of west to east gold migration, here is what we know.

“In the western world, we’ve enjoyed a popular bull market in gold, mainly via the gold ETFs, and it appears to be over,” Morris said. “In China, there are a large number of new outlets, including many banks in the provinces, that are selling gold bars. Many Chinese people, who’ve had limited access to gold in the past, think it’s a good idea to have a bar or two as a long-term investment.”

The U.K. shipped 1,291 tons to the refining hub of Switzerland last year through November, more than the previous seven years combined and equal to more than five months of mine output, according to data from European Union statistics service Eurostat and Barclays Plc. Macquarie Group Ltd. says that’s a sign of the movement from west to east.

      And once in Switzerland, the gold is refined, processed and sold onward to…

Hong Kong exported a record 1,108.8 tons to China in 2013, more than double the total in 2012, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Mainland China doesn’t publish the data.

Consumer purchases of gold in China surged 30 percent in the 12 months through September to 996.3 tons, overtaking demand in India, where usage gained 24 percent to 977.6 tons, the World Gold Council estimates. In the first nine months of 2013, China was at 797.8 tons, already eclipsing its full-year record of 778.6 tons, set in 2011, and full-year usage may exceed India’s all-time high 1,006.5 tons in 2010.

Oh, that “off the peak.”  Ok then. And let’s not forget that while Chinese gold demand is at an absolutely all time record high (and thank you BIS operative Benoit Gilson and Mikael Charoze for those well-timed gold slams), another place that is just waiting for the opportunity to buy as much gold as it legally can is the former larget gold buyer in the world – India.

India’s government choked off inbound shipments by raising import taxes on gold three times last year to help pare a trade imbalance that has weighed on the national currency, the rupee. The 24 percent rise in Indian jewelry, bar and coin purchases to 977.6 tons in the 12 months through September lagged the 30 percent gain to 996.3 tons in China, the gold council said.

How much latent demand is there? A lot: ‘Premiums in India reached a record $160 above the London price in December.” In fact, demand is so great even with restrictions, that refiners have been forced to add work shifts! Nobody complaining about raising the minimum wage here…

“India will consume gold for a long, long time because, for the Indian farmer, gold is one of his best assets,” said Barkhordar, who runs the PAMP refinery in Switzerland. “He will keep this gold for his daughter’s dowry, but he can also use it in case he’s short of cash for the next crop.”

The surge in orders meant some parts of the refinery worked three shifts instead of the usual two, Barkhordar said. It takes five to six working days to turn mined or scrap gold into a bar, he said. The 200 or so employees at the 110,000-square-foot PAMP facility, located about 3 miles from the Argor-Heraeus SA and Valcambi SA refineries, make bars ranging from 0.3 gram to 12.5 kilograms.

And finally, there is the biggest wildcard of all: the Arabs, who have untold wealth in fiat and otherwise electronic format that one day soon, supposedly before the markets crash and the western central banks lose control, need protection.

Trade also has expanded in Dubai. The emirate accounts for about 25 percent of global physical gold trading, and bullion demand grew eightfold in the past six to 10 years, said Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange Chief Executive Officer Gary Anderson. The DGCX plans to list a spot gold contact this year to add to its futures offering.

The bottom line comes from Jeremy East, who moved to Hong Kong from London in June and is head of metals trading at Standard Chartered Plc. “Many of the positive drivers for gold prices in the past five years have started to disappear. At the same time, we have seen a significant increase in physical demand for gold in Asia, especially China. The expectation is that Asia is going to play a much bigger role for setting the international prices for gold and also for the whole metals complex going forward.”

Of course it will, but for now it is counting its lucky stars that courtesy of ETFs, the BIS and various central and private banks desperate to make their worthless pieces of fiat paper appear valuable by manipulating the price of gold lower, it can accumulate gold at such a torrid pace and at such blue light special prices. It knows very well this won’t last. However, in the meantime it will remove as much deliverable product from the paper gold market that when the real delivery demands begin (wink wink Bundesbank), then the real fun starts.

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2)   China Surpasses India As Biggest Buyer Of Gold Following Record 2013 Imports, Consumption (February 10th)

Two weeks ago we learned what many had already known just by extrapolating simple trends: in 2013 Chinese net imports of gold from Hong Kong alone rose to over 1000 tons of gold, or 1158 to be precise – 100 tons more than China’s official gold holdings of 1054 tons which have not “budged” in the past four years – following another significant net monthly import of 94.8 tons of the precious metal in December (and 126.6 gross). This means total gold imports in 2013 was more than double the 557 tons imported in 2012, and as a result China has now officially surpassed India as the world’s biggest buyer of gold (although the title may swing back to India once gold price controls are relaxed, or if the government were to count all the gold smuggled into the country via illegal channels).

As the chart below shows, no matter what the price of paper gold does, the Chinese bid remains unwavering.

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Reuters summarizes China’s insatiable appetite for the yellow metal:

China’s gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tons for the first time, an industry body said on Monday, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion.

The demand surge has helped China become the No. 1 gold consumer and should support prices, which took a hit last year from expectations of a tapering of commodities-friendly economic stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a drop in demand in the other major buyer India.

Gold consumption in China grew to 1,176.40 tons last year, with jewellery demand climbing 43 percent to 716.50 tons and bullion demand soaring 57 percent to 375.73 tons, the China Gold Association said on its website.

Chinese demand hit a record as gold prices fell for the first time in 13 years amid an improving global economy and a rally in equities. Prices tumbled 28 percent in 2013.

“The sharply lower prices attracted a lot of Chinese consumers looking for bargains,” said Chen Min, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in Shenzhen.

“Gold will continue to be an attractive investment in China in the near term as prices look steady near $1,200 an ounce,” Chen said.

      As a reminder, official gold holdings are not included in these numbers:

China’s gold consumption figures do not include demand from the central bank, whose gold reserves stand at 33.89 million ounces (1,054 tons), unchanged since April 2009, according to the latest figures on the central bank’s website.

Regarding said PBOC gold holdings, Reuters confirms what our readers have known since September 2011:

China last announced a rise in its gold reserves in April 2009 and has not revised the figure since, though there had been recent market speculation that the bank had been accumulating gold reserves and would announce a new figure.

Of course, we doubt anyone would be surprised by the unveiling of any updated PBOC holdings especially after one considers just how ravenous China’s gross imports since our September 2011 article have been, summarized best by the following chart.

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As we have said before: keep an eye on the “gold holdings” of the GLD and other US paper gold ETFs, whose drop in holdings for now has offset Chinese accumulation on the margin. Once GLD gold holdings solidly resume their climb higher, that will be the key upward gold price inflection point.

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Macneil Curry dari BofAML belum lama ini menyebut bahwa gold is coming to life:

 

Via BofAML’s Macneil Curry,

Gold breaks pivotal resistance

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Across assets gold has been the lead market against the US $; having forged its base back in mid December. Now, it has broken above its 150d average (1295) for the 1st time since Jan’13. This average has been an excellent barometer of the medium term trend and points to further gains. We target the confluence of resistance between 1355/1374 and potentially beyond.

 

Meskipun terjadi breakout (MA-150 hari) dari kenaikan harga emas sejak pekan lalu, laporan bulanan dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective masih meyakini bahwa emas masih dalam sentimen bearish besarnya.

Oleh karena itu, kewaspadaan sungguh diperlukan saat ini dan saya sarankan agar para investor jangan dulu mengejar kenaikan harga emas ini.

Di bawah ini pandangan terbaru dari Elliott Wave International mengenai perkembangan harga emas:

“Gold has declined 35% from its September 2011 peak at $1,921.50 and continues to move in line with our forecast.

In November and December, GMP discussed the large investment losses incurred by hedge funds and governments, some of whom bet heavily on a gold rally to new all-time highs.

Gold’s decline last year has forced the Swiss National Bank, one of the world’s biggest holders of the metal, to cancel dividends to shareholders for the first time since the Bank was founded in 1907, 107 years ago.

The Swiss central bank said on January 6 that the precious metal’s selloff created a $10 billion loss for the year.

The December issue of EWT noted that gold sentiment has changed.

Still, our forecast remains on track: gold’s bear market is not complete.

The wave labels on the chart show the two high-probability potentials for prices in the coming months.

If wave (5) down started at the August 28 high at $1,434, gold will soon decline to new lows in the final wave of the impulse structure that started at the 2011 peak.

Another possibility is that wave (4) could be tracing out a triangle.

Under this scenario, wave C started at the December 31 low at $1,184.23 and will carry gold to $1,300-$1.350.

Both structures indicate that gold needs one more new low.

Thereafter, the largest countertrend rally since the peak will develop.”

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Conclusion

Emas masih bergerak dari negara-negara barat ke timur, bahkan cnderung bergerak lebih cepat karena Cina diberi umpan oleh turunnya harga emas di pasar ETF serta mulai adanya produksi baru dari tambang-tambang global.

Ketika para investor barat sadar mengenai fakta bahwa jika Cina terus membeli emas di tengah penurunan harganya – bahkan tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda akan mengakhirinya – maka akan hilang emas fisik di pasar-pasar tradisional, karena semuanya sudah diserap Cina dan konsumen-konsumen Asia lainnya.

Dan jika kemudian terjadi kenaikan harga besar-besaran, maka itulah yang menjadi penyebabnya!

Namun demikian, emas saat ini masih dalam downtrend-nya selama masih di bawah level $1525.

Masih banyak waktu yang diperlukan emas untuk menembus resistance pentingnya itu. Untuk indikasi awal, jika kenaikan mampu menembus ke atas $1434 maka menunjukkan perubahan tren, seperti yang dapat Anda lihat dengan jelas di grafik Tom Fitzpatrick (analis Citi) berikut:

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Sebaliknya, waspadai ada daily close di bawah $1180 yang akan memberikan sinyal bahwa downtrend masih akan berlanjut dan akan membawa harga pada bagian akhir dari koreksi tahunan emas dengan target $1000-$1100.

Juga perlu diingat bahwa data Commitment of Traders menunjukkan bahwa para investor kian meningkatkan short position emas di pasar berjangka dan long-position spekulan sudah mencapai tertinggi sejak akhir Oktober 2013.

Ini mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga emas ini sedang menghadapi resistance kuat.

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah dolar AS biasanya memperoleh dukungan musiman hingga musim panas.

Jika gejolak di pasar negara berkembang berlanjut lagi, maka akan mendorong penguatan dolar AS karena dana spekulatif akan kembali ke pasar AS.

Dan biasanya penguatan dolar AS dapat menghambat kenaikan harga emas.

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

 

Dibuat Tanggal 18 Februari 2014

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Sudah Saatnya Membeli Emas?

February 18th, 2014 No comments

“Never buy gold for a profit, gold is a measure of wealth. Count your gold holdings in the number of ounces, not the current worth in dollars. You don’t price the home you live in every day, or with each passing week. Nor should you price your gold holdings in dollars with each passing day. Gold is a timeless wealth asset; an asset that will have a value with the passing of time. Remember this: Of the original issues that made up the Industrial Average, only one remains. And that stock is General Electric. And what happened to all the rest? In investing, nothing is permanent except gold. But remember, do not buy gold with the idea of making a profit. Buy gold because it is pure wealth, and may be the last man standing.”

– Richard Russell

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“While gold declined last year, that consolidation came on the heels of 12 consecutive years of increasing demand and value growth. With lots of uncertainty still on the horizon, now is not the time for your investment portfolio to be caught with its pants down. Be shrewd and diversify with gold. Now is the time to be diversified. Gold provides liquidity and is a strong investment to protect and grow wealth. Being too giddy with equities and not holding some gold in your portfolio can make your hair turn grey when financial markets go south.”

– Donald W. Doyle, CEO of Blanchard & Company

 

Sepanjang tahun 2014 ini, emas berperforma baik.

Harganya terus naik hingga ke areal tertinggi yang dicapai November 2013 lalu, seperti Anda dapat lihat di grafik di bawah ini.

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Dari level terendah jelang perayaan Tahun Baru lalu, di $1181/troy ounce, hingga penutupan Jumat akhir pekan kemarin di $1320, kenaikannya sudah mencapai hampir $140 atau sekitar 12%.

Oleh karenanya, saya kira Anda pasti akan bertanya-tanya apakah sentimen bearish (atau tren penurunannya) sudah berakhir.

Menurut definisi ‘resminya’, sentimen bearish adalah tekanan/penurunan harga suatu aset pasar sebesar 20% dari level puncak kenaikannya dan sebaliknya definisi ‘resmi’ untuk sentimen bullish adalah kenaikan harga sebesar 20% dari dasar penurunannya.

Jadi secara ‘resmi’, dapat dikatakan bahwa sentimen bearish emas belumlah berakhir.

Katakanlah harga tidak akan mampu menembus ke bawah dasar penurunan 2013 lalu di sekitar $1180, maka sentimen bullish emas belum terkonfirmasi sampai menembus 20% kenaikan dari dasarnya, di $1416.

Namun seperti kata pepatah, ‘one swallow does not a summer make’, maka mungkin masih terlalu dini untuk menyebut sentimen bearish emas sudah berakhir.

Namun setidaknya ada secercah harapan bagi para investor logam mulia …

Dan ini didukung oleh John Hathaway, seorang Portfolio Manager & Senior Managing Director di Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., yang memproyeksikan lonjakan dramatis harga emas dalam laporan terbaru Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter.

Berikut bagian-bagian penting penjelasannya beserta 2 grafik menarik, yang memperlihatkan gambaran besar tentang emas:

“Despite the painful decline in gold and gold shares that persisted throughout the entire year, we believe that the fundamental case for both remains strong.  It seems to us that the correction has left the entire sector sold out and friendless.  As contrarians, our experience has been that attractive investment returns arise out of such circumstances.  We therefore encourage investors to maintain their commitment and wherever possible to add to positions.

At the current gold price, construction of new mines in most cases does not make sense.  Therefore, future mine supply is jeopardized without a substantial and sustained rise in the gold price….

The bullion market has been pressured all year by an artificial supply of paper gold with little or no connection to the underlying physical.  We wrote about this more extensively in our website article “Let’s Get Physical.”

We believe that the resolution of the disconnect between paper and physical gold will be a dramatic upside repricing of the real thing.  Most important is the steady migration of physical gold bars held in Western vaults to China and other parts of Asia, where they seem unlikely to be returned, other than for exorbitant ransom.

The timing of a resolution so potentially cataclysmic is elusive.  It would be like counting the snowflakes necessary to trigger an avalanche.  The buildup of systemic risk is there for anyone to see, but to the investment consensus, it is preferable, and perhaps more profitable in the short run, to ignore.  A commitment to precious metals and related mining shares is an investment in the almost certain failure of the PhD-standard in central banking, as stated so eloquently by Jim Grant.

Based on our perception of markets, it seems to us that the downside risk is limited.  Based on our perception of fundamentals, it seems to us that the upside potential is substantial.”

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Agar Anda tetap ingat alasan mengapa membeli emas, berikut Ronald-Peter Stöferle dari Incrementum AG Lichtenstein meringkas fakta-fakta yang sangat penting mengenai emas dan mengingatkan kita bahwa emas itu adalah uang dan bukan suatu hal lain:

Many a (more or less) big philosopher has racked his brain as to why money has value.  Aristotle was of the opinion that good money should come with very high production costs so as to induce people to attach value to it.  He claimed that everybody would have to accept it as means of payment, value store, and value benchmark.  Along those lines presented by Aristotle, basically an ancient gold bug, the only materials that would fit this description were gold and silver.  Marxists would hail the reference to production costs, but Plato found a better explanation: from his point of view, money had no intrinsic value except the one that it was given by people.  This reminds us of the marginal theory of value proposed by the Austrian School of Economics…..

“People value units of money because of their expected purchasing power; money will allow people to receive real goods and services in the future, and hence people are willing to give up real goods and services now in order to attain cash balances. Thus the expected future purchasing power of money explains its current purchasing power.” (Robert Murphy)

Carl Menger explained the emergence of money as result of a historical-evolutionary process derived from barter trade.  In his Principles of Economics (1871) he writes: “Money is not the product of agreement of economic individuals, or even the product of a legislative act. It is no invention made by the people. Gaining an ever greater insight into their economic interests, the economic individuals in countries everywhere at the same time also realized that by relinquishing goods of lower marketable value for those of higher marketable value they would further their own economic end significantly. This is how money was created at many independent cultural centers along the ongoing development of the economy.”

In his habilitation treatise “The Theory of Money and Credit,” Ludwig von Mises managed to resolve a persistent circular argument of economics in an a priori, deductive way.  The circular argument was: “The people demand money because it has purchasing power, and it has purchasing power, because the people demand it.” This statement is of course a tautology.  Therefore, Mises introduced the time factor into his concept.  According to him, the expectation of future purchasing power of money crucially depends on the knowledge about today’s purchasing power.  Today’s purchasing power in turn can be explained by yesterday’s purchasing power.  At the end of the regression we therefore have to find a good that was generally needed and came with an industrial use.  This means that money has developed from a tangible good.  This also includes the demand for jewelry and thus gold.  According to Mises only goods with a generally accepted utility value can turn into generally accepted, natural money.  Gold and silver were already used as jewelry before they assumed their monetary functions.

According to Mises, past experience is the decisive factor for future trust in monetary stability.  The trust in the stability and future purchasing power is essential for the value measurement of money.  According to the regression theorem people only trust in money as long as it offers a certain degree of safety with regard to its future supply and thus to its future purchasing power.

“Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium.” Murray Rothbard

Why have gold and silver come out on top as money after all those centuries?  In his explanation, Roy Jastram refers to two (also anthropologically provable) basic human needs: the appreciation of beauty and the human will to survive.  The two metals therefore satisfy two requirements that are situated at the very bottom and at the very top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

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These two needs are today as strong as they used to be thousands of years ago.  Dr. Bernard Pacella, former President of the American Psychoanalytic Society, points out that the will to survive is the most important driver in nature.  According to Pacella personal survival (and in turn the survival of the species) dominates everything else. Continuing along this train of thought, the protection of one’s savings and the expectation of receiving a reward for this deferral of consumption also constitute elementary motives.  This also explains the need for a stable means of saving.

 

What are the central requirements for money?

* It has to be easily divisible into standardized units
* It has to be negotiable
* It has to be easily transportable
* It has to be durable and practically indestructible
* It has to come with a long track record of universal acceptance
* It has to be easily recognizable and fulfill certain criteria that can be easily verified – it has to have a high value density (i.e. high value / weight and volume)

* The existing holdings have to be large relative to the annual increments (high stock-to-flow ratio)
* It has to come with low storage costs
* It has to come with low transportation costs

* and last but not least, it must defy random replication

There are numerous goods that satisfy some of these criteria, but only gold and silver satisfy all of them.

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Berikutnya ada 2 artikel untuk Anda dari orang-orang yang bersentimen sangat bullish pada emas.

Yang pertama adalah Kevin Wides dari Swiss, yang pada 30 Januari lalu membarikan gambaran dan sejumlah grafik menarik tentang emas dari kisarannya saat ini.

Berikut penjelsan dan sejumlah grafiknya yang menarik:

“History is rhyming once again.  Many have made the comparisons  between the 1970s gold bull market and today’s gold bull market.  What has been highlighted is the (1975 – 1976) 44% decline in the gold price, with the conclusion that this is what may be happening today with the current gold price decline (down 38%) as shown on the chart below.

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Meaning, it is nothing more than a cyclical correction in a secular gold bull market.  The monthly graph below confirms that gold has maintained its bull market trend from the year 2000.

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Something else is also very similar.  The Dow peaked in September 1976, one month after gold bottomed in August 1976.  Gold then took off to the upside and the Dow sold off (see chart below).

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We now know that back then the Dow was trading in a secular bear market — a broadening wedge with slightly higher highs and lower lows — which started in the mid-to-late 1960s, and only came to an end in the early 1980s.

Fast-forward to today, and the Dow and gold have done an uncanny repeat of the price action of the 1960s-’70s time frame.  And more specifically, the price action of August /September of 1976.  Gold put in a new closing low in December 2013 priced in US dollars, and new lows in euro gold, GBP gold and numerous other currencies.  The Dow made a new  trading high here in January 2014, which happened to be at the resistance of a broadening 14-year trading wedge….

It was Warren Buffett who stated in November 1999 that the stock market was likely entering a period very similar to that of the late 1960s to early 1980s – some 17 years of ranging markets.

“Now, to get some historical perspective, let’s look back at the 34 years before this one–and here we are going to see an almost Biblical kind of symmetry, in the sense of lean years and fat years–to observe what happened in the stock market.  Take, to begin with, the first 17 years of the period, from the end of 1964 through 1981.  Here’s what took place in that interval:  DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12 Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00” …… Warren Buffett November 1999

There are other numerous factors contributing to this possible outcome, but a very important one is rising real interest rates, possibly reflecting mounting inflationary pressure.

History may not repeat exactly, but the similarities are too strong to ignore.  With extreme market sentiment readings — optimism in stocks and pessimism in gold — a major trading opportunity looks to be unfolding.

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Also note in the chart above that gold has now completed a FIVE-WAVE decline since the 2011 top, and a typical correction of a FIVE-WAVE move is the 50% retracement of that move, which would take gold back to the $1550 level.  $1550 also happens to be the breakdown level through which gold collapsed on April 12, 2013.  In conclusion, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors is too much to ignore, and we should see a major surge in the price of gold in the coming year.”

Artikel berikutnya juga masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, yang dibuat oleh Bo Polny dari www.gold2020forecast.com, yang membahas mengenai salah satu perdagangan yang paling menakjubkan sepanjang sejarah dan bagaimana korelasinya dengan emas di tahun 2014.

Selain itu juga ada sejumlah kutipan luar biasa beserta 4 grafik menarik di dalamnya:

The 1909 Greatest Commodity Trade In The History Of The World & How It Will Relate To Gold In 2014!….

 “W.D. Gann Secrets:

 “Time is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages of commodities or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future.”

“Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance.  The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states:  ‘What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.’ – Ecclesiastes 1:9

“There is a definite relation between time and price … Now, by a study of the time periods and time cycles you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them.”

“Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilization has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself.”

“The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.”

When it comes to markets and trading, without a doubt the most publicized, mysterious and amazing trade of all time was the one Mr. Gann took in September wheat in 1909.  The trade took him from obscurity to becoming a trading legend almost overnight!

This was the astonishing trade that helped to make W.D. Gann a legend:  Gann predicted that the price of September wheat would have to rise to $1.20 by the end of the trading for the contract (Sept. 30th).  And, at noon, on September 30th, 1909, with only an hour and twenty minutes left to go, September wheat was trading at $1.07.  Mr. Gann stated again, “I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.”

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In less than one hour and fifteen minutes after noon, September wheat had moved from $1.07 all the way up to trade at W.D. Gann’s predicted price of $1.20!

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… and W.D. Gann became a trading legend!

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Conclusion

Meskipun masih ada potensi tekanan emas lebih jauh nantinya, jangan biarkan itu menghalangin Anda. Malah, sebaiknya manfaatkan itu sebagai keuntungan.

Dengan membeli emas saat ini, dan terus melakukannya secara teratur dalam beberapa bulan ke depan maka Anda memperoleh manfaat ganda yakni mengurangi cost dan risk (dalam basis dolar).

Ingat, bahwa fundamental pendukung emas tidak ada yang hilang, malah semakin kuat.

Pertanyaan penting untuk emas saat ini adalah apakah bank-bank sentral utama akan sukses keluar dari politik moneter yang tidak konvensional?

Saya pribadi berpandangan bahwa the Fed sedang terjebak dalam perangkap yang dibuatnya sendiri dan tidak ada jalan keluar yang mudah dari quantitative easing, oleh karenanya emas masih akan menjadi asuransi penting bagi para pemilik modal.

Pada gilirannya, sell-off (tekanan jual) emas tahun 2013 merupakan peluang melakukan aksi beli besar-besaran!

Terakhir, saya persembahkan lelucon pendek yang berjudul A Sign from God:

A woman and man get into a car accident. Both of their cars are totally demolished, but amazingly neither of them are hurt.

After they crawl out of the wreckage, the woman says, “Wow, look at our cars – there’s nothing left! Thank God we are all right. This must be a sign from Him that we should be friends and not try to pin the blame on each other.”

The man replies, “Oh yes, I agree with you completely.”

The woman points to a bottle on the ground and says, “And here’s another miracle. Somehow this bottle of scotch from my back seat didn’t break. Surely God wants us to drink this scotch and celebrate our good fortune.”

Then she hands the bottle to the man. The man nods his head in agreement, opens it, and drinks about a third of the bottle to calm his nerves. He then hands it back to the woman. The woman takes the bottle, immediately puts the cap back on, and hands it back to the man.

The man asks, “Aren’t you having any?”

The woman replies, “No. I think I’ll just wait for the police… I’ll let them decide whose fault it is.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat 17 Februari 2014

Categories: Emas Tags:

Apakah Tekanan Jual Emas Mulai Surut?

January 29th, 2014 No comments

“With the Wall Street and banking entities having switched from heavily short to heavily long precious metals, the list of people who benefit from lower prices continues to shrink. Triggering a melt up in prices should be highly profitable to those who have repositioned themselves. The funds who are still heavily short will be the “suckers at the poker table” under such a scenario and stand to lose an enormous amount of money. Those who have not established positions in the precious metals and miners will also suffer a tremendous opportunity cost. Precious metals and especially the high quality mining companies represent the last major beneficiary of the monetary bubble. History has shown us that many multiples of return are possible once a melt up occurs. However, never in history have we seen a monetary bubble of such proportions – never. If precious metals and miners are set free to benefit, the upside potential will be staggering in our view.”

                                                – Robert Fitzwilson, founder of The Portola Group

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Seperti sudah kita semua ketahui bahwa penurunan harga emas tahun 2013 lalu merupakan yang terbesarnya dalam 30 tahun, dengan tekanan sebesar 28 persen untuk ditutup di tahun tersebut di sekitar areal $1200 per troy ounce.

Selain itu, emas sebagai logam mulia merupakan aset dengan kinerja terburuk di 2013, mengakhiri akselerasi kenaikannya sepanjang satu dekade.

Namun di awal tahun 2014 ini, emas berhasil bangkit luar biasa hingga mendekati areal $1280 kemarin, seperti dapat Anda lihat dalam grafik di bawah ini:

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Sehingga sejumlah pengamat pasar finansial pun mulai mengatakan bahwa ini dapat menjadi awal untuk surutnya tekanan jual emas besar-besaran.

Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com), James Turk mengingatkan bahwa kenaikan ini dapat menjadi peristiwa sejarah dan meredam tekanan jual emas.

Turk juga menyebut sejumlah target harga emas dan memproyeksikan laju kenaikan akan sangat tidak beraturan karena mereka yang masih melakukan tekanan jual akan panik:

“Gold is like a rocket getting ready to go to escape velocity.  Once gold shows it is going to stay above $1,250 for two consecutive trading days, with a little bit more upside momentum, that’s going to be the signal to the major entities in gold that the downtrend which has been in place for the past two years is over — the mid-cycle correction is over.

This means the traders will have to start playing gold again from the long side.  This also means you will see the momentum players coming in to gold over the next few weeks.

There are two types of short squeezes:  One is where the price is going against you, and a lot of the shorts, I think, have hedged against that price movement.  But there is another more fundamental short squeeze:  It arises from the fractional-reserve banking system.  This is when you are actually short physical metal and you have to deliver physical metal into the market.

This shortage of physical metal is enormous when fully quantified, and that is why this short squeeze could be historic in terms of the price advance.  You can’t create gold from bookkeeping entries.  It has to come out of the ground, or from the existing above-ground stocks.  But over the past two years the existing above-ground stocks have moved into strong hands.

Meaning, it will take much, much higher prices to entice these strong hands to part with any physical gold and take national currencies instead.  So I agree with John Hathaway:  I think you will see a massive short squeeze here.  This squeeze has the potential to literally propel gold over $2,000.

It could get very disorderly very quickly.  When you are seeing a short squeeze in physical metal, and I think that’s what we are seeing here, and when you combine a major short squeeze with the fuel of reckless and ultimately disastrous global central banking policies, you have the makings of a truly historic short squeeze.  And I think that is what we are seeing the early stages of witnessing right now.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Hari ini saya akan lebih banyak menampilkan grafik yang saya yakin juga akan lebih banyak memberikan informasi kepada Anda.

Dalam laporan terbarunya Toby Connor, penulis dari Gold Scents (sebuah blog keuangan yang khusus menitikberatkan pada tren kenaikan emas), menyatakan bahwa emas dapat memberikan sinyal beli besar dalam 2-3 pekan ke depan.

Namun, dirinya juga menekankan agar tetap bersabar karena emas terlebih dahulu harus memberikan konfirmasi rally/kenaikan untuk jangka menengah.

Artinya perlu menembus ke atas $1268 dan dari level tersebut membentuk pola higher high. Jika tidak, maka belum ada sinyal beli seperti yang dikatakan Toby Connor tadi.

Tanpa adanya reversal dari pola lower lows dan lower highs, maka tren bearish belum berakhir dan kenaikan ini belum memenuhi harapan mereka yang bullish.

Berikut adalah komentarnya mengenai emas dan mengapa kesabaran diperlukan:

“So far every time gold gets close to breaking through the $1,250-1,260 resistance zone a huge seller materializes, usually in the pre-market, to dump several million oz. of paper gold on the market and drive gold back down. This happened again yesterday [January 22th].

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I can’t stress enough that gold has to get above $1,268 before the FOMC meeting next week. Gold can’t enter the declining phase of its daily cycle from a position of weakness below $1,268. If it does then they are going to beat the crap out of it, and there is a serious threat that they could break the intermediate rally.

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If they do break the intermediate rally then we are going to see $1,030 gold over the next 4-5 months.

There is a serious war ongoing for control of the paper gold market and the big seller won a major battle yesterday when it prevented gold from holding above $1,250. Gold needs to recover immediately and get above $1,268 so the declining phase of the daily cycle can begin from a position of strength, not weakness.

So let me stress again: This is still a very dangerous market. The manipulation has not ended. Wait till the next daily cycle bottom before jumping into the sector. That bottom has to hold above the Dec. 31 low, and the only way it’s going to do that is if gold can get above $1,268 before this cycle tops. That means it’s going to have to fight off the continued manipulation that’s holding it down.”

 

Jumat lalu kepala analis Bank of America, MacNeill Curry, mengingatkan bahwa begitu ada kenaikan ke atas $1270, pergerakan harga emas akan “explosive” karena lolos dari jebakan bearish, yang menjelaskan mengapa tekanan jual mati-matian mempertahankan level-level kritis, seperti resistance 1270.

Berikut penjelasannya mengenai emas:

 

Gold upside continues – watch $1,270

“Gold continues to trade bullishly. Yesterday’s [January 23th] price action formed a Bullish Outside Bar on daily charts and NOW it is testing pivotal resistance at $1,270.

A close above should be the catalyst for short squeeze higher, exposing the confluence of resistance between $1,362 and $1,394.”

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Personal note: Meskipun tekanan jual akan surut dalam jangka pendek, saya masih melihat potensi bearish emas lebih lanjut selama garis downtrend yang terlihat dalam grafik di atas tidak mampu ditembus oleh harga.

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective, yang masih yakin bahwa tekanan emas ke harga yang lebih rendah masih mungkin terjadi di tahun ini.

Terlepas dari itu, mereka menyebut bahwa downtrend emas dalam jangka pendek terkompresi, sehingga akan ada kenaikan untuk meringankan penurunan.

Berikut komentar menarik mereka serta grafik yang luar biasa:

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“The June 28 low at $1,180 basis spot is the end of wave (3), as shown on the chart.

If wave (4) topped at $1,434 on August 28, wave (5) will draw prices lower still into the early part of the New Year. Wave (5) would equal wave (1) at $1,045, a common wave relationship.

If wave (4) is tracing out a triangle, per the Alt. line at the bottom, wave B is ending now, which means wave C will carry prices to $1,300-$1,350 over the next month or so as part of the corrective process.

By either wave count, gold’s long-term trend remains down.”

 

Conclusion

Untuk gambaran lebih umum, tren besar emas masih turun. Jadi kenaikan/rally dapat dianggap hanya sementara karena masih ada peluang tekanan ke bawah areal $1180.

Sementara untuk level kenaikan, saya masih fokus pada level puncak Agustus di $1434. Jika harga emas mampu ditutup di atas areal kunci ini ($1434), maka merupakan sebuah indikasi sangat kuat bahwa tren sudah berubah.

Dan nampaknya perjalanan emas menembus areal tersebut masih akan panjang.

Selain itu, harga emas masih berada di bawah MA-200 hari di $1315,80 pada daily chart hari ini. Dan ini pun menjelaskan bahwa bear market masih dominan.

Juga perlu diwaspadai bahwa biasanya pergerakan dalam persentase besar terjadi menjelang reversal.

Artinya adalah tekanan jual akan berlangsung kembali dengan cepat (seketika), menembus low baru, dan kemudian naik lagi untuk proses reversal dan memulai bull market lagi.

Singkatnya, harga emas masih dalam bear market dan belum reversal menjadi bull market.

Jangan mencoba jadi pahlawan dengan mengupayakan ‘bottom picking’ harga emas, melainkan selalu waspada dan gesit saat ada konfirmasi seperti telah dibahas di atas!

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat tanggal 28 Januari 2014

Categories: Emas Tags:

Bagaimana Emas di Tahun 2014?

January 14th, 2014 No comments

“In times like these, long-term gold investors feel like the designated drivers in the corner of a frat party. It might seem like we’re missing the fun, but we must remember that we’re playing a different game than the short-term speculators. Our drunken friend have had some cheap thrills in 2013, but this stock market growth rests on an unstable foundation of artificial stimulus and cheap money. We are more interested in waking up without a hangover, a wrecked car, or worse. The longer interest rates remain suppressed, the crazier markets will behave when rates rise. And if Greenspan’s one year at 1% rates helped trigger the crash we saw in ’08, imagine what three years and counting of Bernanke’s/Yellen’s 0% rates portends for the next crash.”

                        – Peter Schiff, Chairman of Euro Pacific Precious Metals

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Saya akan mulai tulisan hari ini dengan hal yang tidak nyaman.

Emas bisa saja jatuh ke $1000/troy ounce, jadi rekomendasi saya agar Anda menerapkan strategi investasi yang sesuai.

Puncak emas dicapai pada September 2011 sekitar $1920, dan 2 tahun kemudian terkonsolidasi ke dekat areal $1700. Dan ketika tulisan ini saya buat, harga emas berada di bawah areal $1235.

Jika Anda sedang mengikuti kenaikannya saat ini, saya sungguh kagum. Namun saya tetap memberitahukan bahwa level $1000 dapat menjadi sebuah kemungkinan.

Bahkan, Greg Guenthner telah menyebutkan target penurunan emas ke $1000 di laporan tren pasar paginya, The Rude Awakening, sejak harganya terkoreksi besar sekitar $200 di akhir April lalu.

Berikut adalah analisa teknikalnya yang luar biasa – yang merupakan alat evaluasi investasinya – yang memberikan penjelasan mengenai:

Why Gold Will Drop to $1,000 per Ounce

When the market fails to confirm your thesis, it’s time to step aside. You always hear traders say that they never “marry” a stock. That’s because once you fall into the story, you tend to lose perspective. You seek out only opinions that confirm your thinking, tossing all other analysis out the window.

Inevitably, this behavior leads to ruin.

Even if you aren’t a trader, there’s still merit in adopting this maxim. It doesn’t mean you have to drop all of the conviction from your investment strategy. Just know that it’s impossible to tame the market. If you try to fight it at key turning points, there’s a good chance you’ll get burned.

In December 2012, there was a new record in gold holdings by popular exchange-traded funds. The spot price hovered around $1,700. The 12-year golden bull appeared alive and well.

That’s where the trouble started.

At this point, gold had become too tradable with the invention of ETFs. They offered investors exposure to the physical metal. With ETFs, momentum traders could easily gain exposure to physical gold and hop right off if they didn’t like the ride anymore.

One of the market’s inconvenient truths is that one wave of selling can inspire countless other investors to run and hide. The same herd mentality that pushes prices skyward can also send them crashing down. That’s true of anything you trade on an open market — even gold.

With that in mind, early last February, I made the following observation in The Rude Awakening as speculators exited gold:

“Gold’s mojo has vanished.

“And if stocks have any say in the matter, it isn’t coming back anytime soon.

“I love my charts. But I don’t need a picture to show you what’s going on here…

“By now, you know the trends. In the 1990s, gold was stagnant while stocks enjoyed an extended bull run. As stocks started to fall out of favor in the early 2000s, gold’s massive rally began.

“Right now, another shift is brewing. The tide is turning in favor of equities.”

That day, Feb. 4, gold was sitting at $1,667. A week later, we looked at the charts and called $1,550. Within the next two months, it dipped below $1,550… ultimately crashing to $1,330 by April 15.

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“$1,550,” we wrote that day, “was enthusiastically bought every time gold dipped since its 2011 top. When this critical support area broke, it was lights out. Sellers are now in control. You must accept the fact that gold has entered a bear market.”

Come June 11, with gold at $1,374, I drew the new support level at $1,350. If the price crossed that line, I figured a swift drop to a range of $1,200-1,250 was reasonable. It only took another nine days for the Midas metal to break below $1,350 and sink to its year low — $1,178.

At that point, I expected the metal to continue its downtrend, ultimately landing somewhere between $1,100-1,000. I still think that today. Where did I get $1,000 from, you ask? Well, $1,000 seems like a reasonable long-term floor. At that price, gold will have completely retraced its 2010-2011 push toward $2,000.

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I added the long-term moving average to this chart to give you a smooth look at gold’s big, secular trend. Once price fell below this mark for the first time in 11 years, it became apparent that the massive uptrend was in trouble.

Now, you might be thinking this is a chance to buck the herd and be a contrarian and think, Gold’s dropping… people are selling… I should buy.

But it’s important to remember that the herd is usually wrong — at market turning points. Following the herd for the meat of a big move like the surge in stocks in the 1980s and 1990s or gold’s roaring bull market in the 2000s was the correct move. But knowing when to jump on board (and when to head for the hills) is the tricky part.

That’s where technical analysis comes in handy. By analyzing price charts and projecting trend lines, you have the chance to spot major market turning points before the average investor catches on.

If you set aside your emotions and follow the trends, you have a shot at buying into a big move while most investors are still selling — or selling out of a winning position while the herd sits and waits for a comeback that might never arrive. Let’s use gold’s 20-year chart as a breakdown…

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Take the late 1990s, for example. Gold was still locked in a downtrend — a series of lower highs and lower lows formed a downward trend channel. Instead of buying right away, you could’ve followed the trends and waited until the downtrend was broken. That would’ve been early 2002, when gold broke out toward $300.

That marked a perfect opportunity for an aggressive buy. And even if you’re a more conservative investor, you could have waited for a rising channel to form before making a buy. That would have postponed your purchase until mid-2003, when gold finally posted a meaningful higher low near $330.

After you figured out your entry, there wasn’t much more to do. Gold’s bull market played out beautifully. The early stages (before most folks thought twice about gold) from 2002-06 gave you a tight rising channel. As gold started gaining popularity as an outperforming investment in 2006, you witnessed increased volatility, a much wider channel and even bigger gains.

Until it broke below its trend channel, my analysis gave gold the benefit of the doubt on the upside. It wasn’t until the big break that began setting up last winter that it appeared that the decade-long secular bull was finished.

This is a perfect example of not trying to call a top — but to take what the market gives you. I wasn’t super bearish gold at $1,800. It was still possible that the action we were seeing was noise or consolidation — or just a potential test of support (a necessity of a healthy bull run). It wasn’t until just below $1,600 that I shifted my thinking firmly to the bear case.

If you still doubt gold’s trajectory… take a long-term look at the Dow/gold ratio. That is, the Dow Jones industrial average priced in gold.

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The ratio touched an absurd peak of 43-to-1 when the tech bubble began to pop in 2000. It was reasonable to think the ratio was headed back to its 1932 level of 2-to-1… or the 1980s level of 1-to-1.

In reality, the Dow-gold ratio bottomed a little below 6-to-1 in late 2011. At writing, it’s back above 13-to-1. Clearly, the market didn’t give a hoot about what anyone thought was reasonable. It’s pretty obvious what happened when the Dow finally broke higher after years of decline versus gold.

It signaled the massive performance shift we wrote about in February. After more than a decade in the driver’s seat, gold is giving up ground to stocks.

If you’re still squeamish, ask yourself: Is your desire to buy gold based on reasonable analysis of market conditions? Or is it simply an emotional reaction to the sell-off?

If you’re a long-term-oriented investor, we suggest giving gold a chance to consolidate or move lower. After all, what’s the rush? When was the last time you saw any asset class permanently recovered from a violent drop the very next day? It just doesn’t work that way…

There will be snapback rallies and more downside. Expect to wait a long, long time before a suitable base forms. The gold market experienced a great boom. Naturally, people flocked to it. Investors, traders, hedge funds and your crazy co-worker bought gold. People wanted to own it because of its performance. Now they’ve already left or are leaving. I don’t think they’ll be rushing back to buy anytime soon.

Treat gold as a safe haven if you’re going to buy now. If you jump into a gold position this year expecting explosive gains, you’ll find nothing but disappointment…

If you are well versed in trading, you could always try to play a snapback move in gold futures or miners instead. Gold will be off for a while… but miners potentially offer you a more powerful trading opportunity. You could gain some exposure through an ETF like Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX).

If that’s your game, feel free to investigate it. We recommend keeping tight stops and expecting the unexpected.

Tetap beli emas (dan perak) setiap bulan

Jelang akhir 2013, James Turk, dari GoldMoney, kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) membahas gambaran besar untuk 2014.

Dia menjelaskan segalanya mulai dari bail-ins, hingga emas, keruntuhan finansial dan “Money Bubble” besar. Berikut yang dikatakannya:

“As we look back over 2013, this is clearly a year that can easily be forgotten.  Without any doubt it has been a disappointment.  But let’s put this year into its proper perspective:  We should look back over the last 13 years and view them as one long sweep of time….

My point is that investing money is a marathon, not a 100-yard sprint.  By this I mean that you have to make decisions, take actions, and then position your portfolio in harmony with the major long-term trend.

For 13 years the dominant trend impacting all markets has been one in which money is being constantly debased.  There are too many dollars, euros, pounds and yen being printed.  What is worse, in this zero-interest rate environment that central banks have forced on us, anyone holding money can no longer earn enough interest on a bank deposit to offset all the risks.  These include inflation, bank failure, capital controls and things like bail-ins, where depositors end up paying for bankers’ mistakes.

And over the last 13 years, government deficit spending in the US and pretty much everywhere else has soared to astronomical levels.  These high levels of government debt today are extremely dangerous, which is the biggest risk of all — governments nowadays control the money we use, and they control it to their advantage.  When it comes to money, there is no longer a level playing field.  Governments have tilted it in their favor.

Because of these risks, for the past 13 years I have been recommending that physical gold and silver should be accumulated on a long-term cost averaging plan.  That is the best way to run in an investment marathon.  Also, I continue to recommend this strategy because both precious metals remain undervalued.  Both gold and silver, when you own them in physical form, avoid counterparty risk. They are tangible assets, and not some promise of a government or some bank.

As we know from the 2008 financial collapse and various collapses since then – like the one earlier this year in Cyprus where bank depositors lost a lot of money – avoiding counterparty risk is important.  Counterparty risk is something everybody needs to avoid until more normal times return, and I expect that 2014 is not going to be normal – far from it.

The world is full of banks and governments that are over-leveraged.  These institutions have been dangerous to your wealth and remain dangerous because the problems that have plagued monetary systems throughout the world for over a decade are still there.  They have not been solved.  In this period of great financial and monetary uncertainty that we have been going through, owning tangible assets remains an important diversifier for everyone’s wealth.

There is another reason to look back over the past 13 years, Eric, and view them as one time span:  One losing year after 12 winning years is not that bad.  Even with 2013 added in, over the last 13 years gold has generated an average annual return greater than 13%.  It has been and remains one of the best assets to own, particularly given that neither physical gold nor physical silver has counterparty risk, and just like every other bubble inflated by banks or governments, the ‘Money Bubble’ will pop too.”

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To order his book “The Money Bubble” from Amazon, please CLICK HERE.

 

Personal note

Pasar emas memang terlihat sangat lemah.

Kenaikan harus mampu melewati areal yang sebelumnya mengalami breakout ketika terjadi penurunan, yakni di $1260-$1275, yang kini menjadi resistance, serta areal $1300 untuk mengindikasikan kebangkitan harga emas yang berkelanjutan.

Namun juga ada potensi penurunan lebih lanjut, dan masih sangat terlalu dini untuk mengatakan bahwa tekanan harga emas sedang membentuk pola double bottom.

Bahkan kita harus mewaspadai level $1180 karena banyak posisi sell-stop di areal tersebut, dan banyak pola-pola teknikal yang akan gagal (damage) jika emas menembus level tersebut …

Di akhir tulisan ini, saya ingin bertanya apakah Anda kadang berpikir untuk mulai melakukan diet atau olah raga?

Berikut adalah sejumlah fakta menggelikan tentang olah raga:

  • A whale swims all day, mainly eats fish, drinks water, but is still fat.
  • A rabbit runs and hops, but only lives 15 years.
  • A tortoise doesn’t run and does mostly nothing, yet it lives for 150 years.

Lalu apakah Anda tetap akan memulainya?

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 10 Januari 2014

Categories: Emas Tags: