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Apakah Para Investor Sudah Terlalu Banyak Ambil Resiko?

September 9th, 2014 No comments
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Perak MASIH Akan Menjadi Investasi Favorit Saya Untuk 10 Tahun Ke Depan

April 3rd, 2014 No comments

 “Remember, next to oil, silver is the most vital and strategic resource in the world. So we have this massive demand for silver from the Chinese, and we also have the monetary aspects of silver which will help turbo-change the price in the future. The bottom line is the price of silver should be much, much higher than it is today. So I think you have a rare opportunity to buy silver at these extremely depressed prices. Silver is going to trade in the triple-digits before this is over. It will eventually be priced in the hundreds of dollars an ounce – so under $20 is a steal. By the time the world figures out there is a genuine silver shortage there will be very little left. When you put a monetary premium on top of a coming worldwide shortage, the silver market is an explosion to the upside waiting to happen.”

                                                                  — Stephen Leeb

 gb.1

Tahun 2013 lalu saya tulis 4 artikel mengenai alasan-alasan perak akan menjadi investasi terbaik di dekade ini, terutama jika Anda mencari return on investment (atau ROI) yang (sedemikian) tinggi.

Alasan utamanya adalah bahwa saya perkirakan perak akan naik setidaknya 1000% dalam kurun waktu 5 sampai dengan 10 tahun mendatang. Dengan kata lain, jika Anda melakukan buy & hold perak untuk jangka waktu 5 sampai dengan 10 tahun, maka Anda akan mendapatkan rata-rata ROI tahunan sekitar 100%!

Saya memang telah merilis artikel-artikel ini pada April 2013, dan saya masih belum berubah pikiran, bahkan melalui laporan hari ini saya ingin menegaskan kembali bahwa perak masih menjadi investasi favorit saya dalam 10 tahun ke depan.

Namun jika Anda butuh sumber untuk memperkuat keyakinan Anda mengapa harus beli perak, maka bacalah tulisan dari Ted Butler di bawah ini, karena dia adalah seorang analis spesialis untuk logam mulia yang sudah berpengalaman sekitar 40 tahun.

Berikut adalah laporan khusus dari Ted Butler dan saya sangat merekomendasikan untuk berlangganan laporan-laporannya di www.butlerresearch.com karena analisanya untuk emas dan perak sungguh berharga dan berguna:

 

I Own Silver Because Of The Coming Silver Shortage

 “Ask a hundred different precious metals investors why they hold gold or silver and, while you may not get a hundred different answers, you’ll certainly get more than one. That’s because there are many different reasons why people own precious metals. Among those reasons; protection against inflation, bank or financial system failures, currency turmoil, unsustainable government debt and money supply growth, stock or bond market collapse and perhaps some combination of all these reasons.

 While I can understand these reasons and don’t have any real dispute that they may prove to provide the protection desired; all are far removed from the reason I hold and continue to buy silver. I own silver because I feel it will perform better than any other investment I am aware of, including gold. Although I am not driven by a desire for money at all costs; I am convinced that if you are going to make an investment, it should be the best investment possible. Quite simply, I believe that silver will make more money, by far, than any other investment almost regardless of future circumstances. [Emphasis mine]

 It is one thing to say that silver will be the best investment over the next several years, but yet another to back that up and explain why I expect that to be the case. The simple reason is because I think silver will go into an extreme physical shortage on a wholesale level. If there is anything that can drive the price of a commodity to the stratosphere it is surely a physical shortage. War time, peace time, any time there has ever been a shortage of any commodity, the price has soared to levels that ration remaining available supplies. The price of silver will behave the same way when a wholesale shortage hits.

 The inevitable shortage was the thing that first attracted me to silver 25 years ago. Some might say that’s a long time to wait for a shortage, but there are some very special circumstances that explain why the timetable for a silver shortage has been drawn out. For one thing, silver has been mined and produced in great quantities for many hundreds of years and tremendous inventories were accumulated above ground. It’s hard to conceive of a shortage in the presence of massive inventories. Certainly, throughout history, there has never been a silver shortage, so if a silver shortage develops, it will be unprecedented and that will add to the emotional and panic-buying intensity that accompanies any commodity shortage.

 Starting around 100 years ago, the world developed an insatiable appetite for silver as an industrial material once it was discovered that the metal had physical and chemical properties more varied and vital than any other metal. Those properties included silver being the best conductor of electricity, the best transfer agent for heat, the best reflector of light, the most diverse medical properties and chemical properties that ranged from making photography possible to use as a catalyst for other important chemical production.

 So great was the industrial demand for silver that for 65 years running, until around 2006, much more silver was consumed than was mined and recycled annually. At the start of World War II, the world had more than 10 billion ounces in silver bullion inventories, with the US Government holding about half that amount. It’s hard to conceive of a shortage with 10 billion ounces of silver in world inventories. But so much more silver was consumed than was produced through 2006 that world inventories of silver bullion (in the form of 1000 oz bars) have fallen to a bit more than one billion ounces today, despite the ending of the consumption deficit. Obviously, it’s easier to envision a shortage when the inventories of a commodity decline by 90%, while the population of the world (and resultant demand) grew from 2.5 billion to 7 billion.

I look at silver as a commodity destined to go into a shortage because that’s what the facts point to. My professional background revolves around supply/demand analysis, having begun my working career as a commodity broker for Merrill Lynch more than 40 years ago. I didn’t set out to conclude there would be a silver shortage or any such thing, but in 1985 a client and my eventual mentor, Israel Friedman, challenged me to explain why silver was stuck at $5 an ounce when demand exceeded production and inventories were being drawn down year after year.

Thanks to Izzy’s challenge, I came to discover that the price of silver stayed low because it was manipulated by excessive short selling on the COMEX, the principal world precious metals exchange. Since that time, I have petitioned the exchange and the federal regulators to end the manipulation. I have not been successful on that score to date, but many thousands have come to believe that silver has been manipulated in price. The key point here is that nothing invites a shortage more than a prolonged artificial low price and its affect on the law of supply and demand.

Any industrial commodity is capable of going into a shortage. All it takes is for industrial demand to exceed total production or come close to that circumstance. Such shortages seem rare, but then again just about every industrially consumed metal or other commodity has gone into a shortage situation at some point over time. Copper, nickel, lead, zinc and a whole host of grains and foodstuffs and energy products have experienced shortages of varying degree. Considering silver’s tremendously diverse industrial consumption base and the growth of world population and economic development, it’s impossible to exclude silver as a potential candidate for shortage compared to every other industrial commodity.

But wait a minute – didn’t I just say that total production of silver started to exceed industrial consumption around 2006? How the heck can there be a silver shortage if total production exceeds industrial consumption? Well, for starters, silver total production doesn’t exceed industrial consumption by much; say by 100 million ounces or so annually on a billion ounces of total production. And one could argue that with the recent price drop below the cost of production for many silver miners, that it is just a matter of time before industrial consumption exceeds production due to falling mine production. I think that the silver deficit could return in time, unless prices rise; but I have a different reason for expecting a silver shortage before a decline in mine production triggers the shortage.

The key to appreciating why, among all commodities, silver is capable of developing quickly into a shortage situation, even if production exceeds total industrial consumption, is in understanding that silver is the most unique of materials in that it has a special dual aspect in its demand. Not only is it a vital industrial material, but it is an extremely popular investment asset. To my mind, this elemental fact of silver’s dual demand is vastly underappreciated, but it lies at the heart of why I own silver.

Sure, there are times when big investors buy copper, oil, grains and other commodities for a speculation, but the regular investor rarely buys physical copper or crude oil or corn as a long term investment. If the regular investor buys any commodity, it is usually only gold and silver. Since little gold is used for industrial purposes and the metal is considered primarily a pure investment asset, gold does not have a dual demand aspect. That’s not to say gold can’t rise in price, but it won’t be due to a shortage enflamed by panicky industrial user buying. Only silver, of all commodities, has a bona fide dual demand circumstance.

Because this dual demand factor is, effectively, unique to silver, it sets the stage for a very unique potential shortage. Normal commodity shortages come slowly and as a result of a gradual insufficiency of supply in meeting demand over the course of years.

After all, most world commodities have many participants, both producers and consumers and changes in production or consumption are glacial-like and grindingly slow. Only when long and consistent delays in delivery occur do the effects of the commodity shortage become apparent. But there is a very big difference between industrial consumption demand and investment demand. With industrial consumption, the users buy what they need; with investment demand, the buyers buy what they want and can afford. And collective human nature being what it is, investment buyers often behave in unison, all trying to buy or sell at the same time. This holds special significance for a silver shortage.

Total silver fabrication demand (industrial consumption plus jewelry, coin and all other such uses) consume 90% of total supply (mine production plus recycling) of one billion ounces. This leaves around 100 million ounces (in the form of 1000 oz bars) to be absorbed by the world’s investors, or $2 to $2.5 billion annually. In terms of typical world investment flows, this is a piddling amount. For instance, $100 to $150 billion is needed annually to be absorbed in newly-produced gold by the world’s investors. Since investors tend to move in unison and the dollar amounts are so small, the 100 million oz of new silver available to world investors annually could be snapped up in a relative instant. Sure, existing silver investment holdings could also be sold, but remember that world inventories of silver are down 90% from 70 years ago, so not that much silver exists in investor holdings.

The dual demand factor in silver will also likely be a self-reinforcing mechanism. The silver story is so good that it is only a matter of time before investors buy sufficient quantities to tighten supply, particularly considering how few relative dollars of silver are available for purchase. When that investor-induced tightness hits, it will inevitably cause tightness for the industrial consumers as well, creating delays in delivery to the silver users. Faced with delivery delays that will shut down assembly lines, the industrial users will do what has always been done throughout history – they will try to buy even more silver to build their own inventories and eliminate future delivery delays. This is just normal human collective behavior – just like panic buying of bread, ice and gasoline when a hurricane warning is issued.

You might ask if this is inevitable (as I suggest) – then why hasn’t it happened yet? The truth is that the world was on the cusp of its first shortage of silver three and a half years ago, when the price almost touched $50 an ounce. At that time, investors throughout the world had purchased enough quantities of silver, including many hundreds of millions of ounces in the newly created Exchange Traded Funds that prices were pushed up and severe tightness was evident throughout the wholesale supply chain. Remember, the ETFs buy the exact same form of industrial grade silver (1000 oz bars) as do the users.

But before the industrial users began to build personal inventories, prices were dramatically rigged lower on the COMEX and within a week, the price of silver was smashed for more than 30%. This immediately cooled off investor demand; creating instead investor selling and preventing an industrial user buying panic.

Looking back, I believe that we averted an all-out silver user buying panic by the thinnest of margins in the spring of 2011. But the close call back then did nothing to change the underlying circumstances of the inevitable coming silver shortage; it was simply a temporary postponement to what will recur and with greater force. Frankly, I can’t see how a silver shortage won’t occur at some point; so the real question is one of timing. Fortunately, even if we can’t predict the precise timing, it can be made into something largely under our control. It all has to do with how you configure a silver investment.

If you become convinced, as I am convinced, of the likelihood of a future silver shortage, don’t try to time it at all. Put yourself in a position where the timing doesn’t matter; only the shortage itself. The way to do that is to buy real metal for cash on the barrel head, put it away and wait it out. No margin or borrowing to buy paper forms of silver, no in and out short term trading; stick to real metal in your own possession until you reach the point where you have so much metal that you need professional storage. By not having to worry about the timing, you put time on your side.”

 

Selanjutnya adalah Michael Snyder, seorang publisher untuk The Economic Collapse Blog, yang juga yakin bahwa mereka yang tertarik pada perak sedang mencari peluang beli yang bagus.

Bahkan menurutnya mereka kini pasti senang karena harga perak sudah jatuh demikian rendah.

Singkatnya, jika Anda sabar menanti, maka giliran Anda pasti akan tiba.

Berikut artikelnya yang ditulis Juni 2013, dan menurut saya masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA bagi mereka yang serius ingin berinvestasi di perak:

 

“In my previous articles, I have warned over and over again that we would see wild swings in the prices of gold and silver.  For example, I wrote the following back in April

As I mentioned above, gold and silver are going to experience wild fluctuations over the next few years. When the next stock market crash comes, gold and silver are probably going to go even lower than they are today for a short time. But in the long run gold and silver are going to soar to unprecedented heights. 

Investing in gold and silver is not for the faint of heart. If you cannot handle the ride, you should sit on the sidelines. We are entering a period of tremendous financial instability, and holding gold and silver is going to be like riding a roller coaster. The ups and downs are going to shake a lot of people up, but the rewards are going to be great for those that stick with it the entire time.

Right now, a lot of people that bought silver when it was 25 dollars an ounce or 30 dollars an ounce are probably feeling discouraged.

Don’t be.  You will be just fine.  When the price of an ounce of silver hits 100 dollars an ounce you will be very thankful for the silver that you stored away at those prices.

We are moving into a time when we will see more volatility in precious metals prices than we have ever seen before.  That means there will be some tremendous opportunities to make money.  But in order to make money, you have to buy low and sell high.

The current decline in the price of paper silver does not have anything to do with the demand for actual physical silver.  In fact, demand for physical silver is higher than it ever has been before.

For example, sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a brand new all-time record high during the first half of 2013.

Last year, the U.S. Mint sold 33 million ounces of silver for the entire year.

This year, the U.S. Mint is on pace to sell 50 million ounces of silver for the entire year.

So don’t be alarmed that the price of silver is falling.

Instead, be very, very thankful.

Hopefully it will go even lower.

And you know what?  There is a decent possibility that the price of silver may go down a bit more.  This will especially be true during the initial stages of the next financial panic.

When the price of silver does dip, it is a perfect opportunity to load the boat, because even many mainstream analysts are projecting that the price of silver is headed into the stratosphere over the long-term.  For example, the following is what Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick told King World News the other day…

Again, if you look at silver going back to the 2008 correction, we got down to levels below $9, then we saw the silver price multiply by a factor of over 5 times. So assuming this marks a point near the end of the correction in silver, then our bias would be one that would take silver not only to new all-time highs, but we would look for a target as high as $100 for silver.

A chart illustrating the projections that Fitzpatrick is making can be found right here.

There are so many reasons to own silver (even as opposed to owning gold).  The following is an excerpt from a recent article about silver that really caught my attention…

*****

7. Silver is way below its nominal record price of $50 in 1980.  It is even further below the government inflation adjusted level of $135.  And if you use REAL inflation adjusted numbers, like Shadowstats, the REAL 1980 inflation adjusted price of silver would have to be $450!  Silver is a precious and depleting resource and when you look at the price of housing, cars, education, food, energy, taxes, insurance back in the 1980′s, it is insane to think that silver is so cheap on any level.  Especially when the uses of silver have skyrocketed since the 1980’s.  It is now used in technology on a massive scale and is even now said to cure cancer.  Heck, they did not even have Silver Eagle sales back then, or the Silver Bullet Silver Shield for that matter.

8. This time it is going to be much larger!  None of the problems from the 2008 Banking Crisis have been solved.  In fact it is orders of magnitudes worse.   What started out as an institutional problem is now a sovereign nation problem.  This collapse will not be a puny multi – billion dollar corporation like AIG disintegrating, it will be the Trillion dollar economies of the nations of the world and the Quadrillion dollar derivative monster markets cracking apart.  There is no financial, political or social safety net left.  We destroyed all of that in 2008 and are on a debt based junkie delusion.

The collapse of currencies will affect every counter-party, debt based asset in the world. Your cash, stocks, bonds, Real Estate, pensions, insurance, all of it.  The collapse of financial contracts will lead to the collapse of all political and social contracts.  The Anger Phase of humanity is coming and only real assets with no counter party risk will be worth anything.  Most commodities have storage or degradation issues leaving only precious metals as a real store of wealth.

9. 1:65 Ratio makes silver the only choice.  The current gold to silver ratio is: 1 ounce of gold is worth 65 ounces of silver.  These come out of the ground at a 1:9 ratio!  That means just to get back to the natural mining ratio, silver would have to outperform gold 600%.  This is regardless what happens to the dollar value of gold.  If gold goes to $13,000 an ounce, silver at a 1:9 ratio would be $1,444 silver.

10. The historical stockpiles of silver are destroyed.  We know implicitly that gold has been treasured and kept secure.  While silver has been used and abused as a cheap, industrial metal like tin.  Since the price of silver has been under attack since the Crime of 1873, silver has been used in such small quantities that it has been destroyed.  The US government in 1950 had 5 billion ounces of silver in its strategic stockpile, now it has ZERO. So if gold and silver come out of the ground at a 1:9 ratio and gold has been treasured and silver stockpiles destroyed, logic would dictate that the end of this silver bull market will find the gold to silver ratio BELOW 1:9 and I think it will come close to a 1:1.  Either way, we are a long way away from those levels which makes silver so exciting right now.

It is the destruction of huge stockpiles like this that explains the decade long supply deficit to the growing demand of silver.  Do not forget that we are only 7 years away from the United States Geological Survey’s prediction that if we continue to consume silver at these rates, silver would be the first metal to become extinct.  When I challenged the USGS on that statement, they said that only a massive revaluation of silver to bring on more production and wiser use of silver would stop the extinction.  I don’t think we will ever run out of silver, but I do believe that the free market will crush this paper manipulation and that anyone holding physical silver on that day will then have a lottery ticket in real value.

*****

You can read the rest of that excellent article right here.

Do you want some more reasons to own silver?

The following are some excerpts from an excellent article by Mark Thomas

*****

The amount of silver consumed annually and bought for investment exceeds currently exceeds total annual mining output and has for years. That gap has been filled by sellers willing to sell from existing inventories and as prices rise. As time passes this will naturally push prices significantly higher until this fundamental imbalance reaches a true equilibrium price where supply is closer to demand.

*****

Both industrial and investment demand for silver is growing in excess of the annual increase in mining production growth. The available inventory is low and will get even tighter over time. These two factors will lead to a continued tighter supply-demand situation going forward.

*****

Silver is an industrial metal with over 10,000 commercial applications. Because it is one of the best electrical and thermal conductors, that makes it ideal for electrical uses such as switches, multi-layer ceramic capacitors, conductive adhesives, and contacts. It is used in some brazing and soldering as well. Silver is also used in solar cells, heated automobile wind shields, DVD’s and some mirrors.

*****

Silver is an essential element in the electronic gadgets that are a growing part of our digital age. It is in every cell phone, smart phone, tablet, computer keyboard, solar cells and every radio frequency if ID device (RFID). This makes it an essential element going forward as the world becomes more addicted to gadgets. The growth and rising living standards of people in the emerging economies will drive long-term growth of new customers that will demand more and more electronic gadgets.

*****

Silver’s industrial demand should increase 60% to 666 million ounces per year by 2016 from 487 million ounces in 2010. Current annual mine production is only around 700 million ounces per year growing a few percent annually.

*****

Of a total of fifty billion ounces of silver that have been mined in history, only two ounces (estimate) or 5% remain in above ground inventories available to be bought and sold. This is due to silver being used up in industrial applications in very small quantities, which makes it unprofitable to recycle at today’s prices. A lot of silver is used in minute quantities in industrial products which are used up and discarded without being recycled.

*****

The total amount of silver available to trade in the physical silver market is only about $70 billion versus the total gold market which now exceeds $4.3 trillion. As you can see from these numbers, the total market size of the silver market is only 1.6% of the size of the entire gold market. This lack of liquidity and use of extreme leverage in its respective futures market produces wild volatility in price fluctuations of silver.

*****

You can read the rest of his excellent article right here.

Are you starting to get the picture?

Let us hope that the price of silver stays below 20 dollars an ounce for as long as possible, because once this opportunity is gone we will probably never see it again.

It is important to realize where we are in the greater scheme of things.  The world is moving toward another major financial crisis which will usher in a brief period of deflation.  Unlike many others that are talking about the coming economic collapse, I have always maintained that we are going to see deflation first and then the response to the crisis will give us the rip-roaring inflation that so many talk about.  The following is an excerpt from one of my articles where I talk about this

So cash will not be king for long. In fact, eventually cash will be trash. The actions of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve in response to the coming financial crisis will greatly upset much of the rest of the world and cause the death of the U.S. dollar.

That is why gold, silver and other hard assets are going to be so good to have in the long term. In the short term they will experience wild swings in price, but if you can handle the ride you will be smiling in the end.

During the initial stages of the next major stock market crash, gold and silver will not do very well.  But that is okay.  Dips are buying opportunities.

As the coming economic crisis unfolds, governments and central banks all over the world will desperately attempt to resuscitate the global financial system.  We are going to see money printing and “stimulus packages” on a scale that we have never seen before.  Crazy things will happen with stocks, bonds and currencies.

When the dust finally settles, those that are holding “real money” will be the ones that will be in the best shape.”

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Meskipun perak kelihatan akan sangat menarik dalam jangka panjang, namun tekanan saat ini nampaknya BELUM selesai.

Berikut laporan singkat dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective, beserta grafiknya:

“The silver chart shows a similar wave structure to gold; prices should make fresh new lows this year. The next short-term target is $17.30, with greater bearish potential.”

gb.2

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah James Turk, pendiri GoldMoney, yang pada 19 Agustus 2013 lalu membuat artikel luar biasa yang menjelaskan pola grafik 30 tahun untuk bullish tajam perak:

“The following silver chart will be familiar to everyone who follows my work. I first presented this pattern in my newsletter about twenty years ago, and I have been tracking it closely ever since, though recently there has been a twist to the way this pattern has developed.

I have been describing silver’s long-term chart pattern as a rounding bottom, which shows distribution from the 1980 peak to the early 1990s, followed thereafter by a decade trading range and then a decade of massive accumulation. In other words, over this period silver moved from overvaluation and selling by weak hands, to undervaluation and buying by strong hands.

The new twist to this pattern is that the rounding bottom has evolved into a ‘cup with a handle’, which I have drawn on the chart (outlined in green).

gb.3

Regardless of the name we call the above chart, the bottom line is that it is presenting a very bullish picture for silver. After a decade or so of distribution, a decade in a trading range and another decade of accumulation, silver is in strong hands, particularly after the onslaught it endured the past two years.

Technical analysts will note, however, that the above pattern is not complete. More of the story has yet to be told.  Perhaps the chart pattern will fail, or perhaps the pattern will complete in the months ahead with silver moving higher to completely form the handle, which is what I expect.

Of course, the pattern will only be complete when silver moves above the lip of the saucer, which is its record high of $50. If that happens, then silver will begin stage two of its bull market.

In summary, the outlook for silver is spectacular, and my recommendation for both precious metals remains unchanged. Accumulate gold – and if you are inclined to accept the greater volatility, then accumulate silver too – on a cost-averaging program with monthly (or quarterly if it fits your budget better) purchases. By doing so you are saving sound money. Buy physical gold and physical silver only.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

 

Dibuat Tanggal 31 Maret 2014

Categories: Uncategorized Tags:

Sejauh Mana Emas Akan Jatuh?

April 3rd, 2014 No comments

“People need to be patient … Do I think in the next 12 to 18 months that precious metals prices will be much, much higher than we’re seeing today? Yes, I do. I just don’t think the current suppression scheme can be successfully prosecuted that much longer. If that were the case, Germany should have gotten all of their gold (back) and ABN AMRO and Rabobank shouldn’t have had to default. The strains in the system are obvious … This game will end. It will end when it can’t be prosecuted any longer. And based on the setup in the options series and other things that we look at, they (bullion banks) certainly would like to take it (the price) lower. These people are incredibly greedy – that’s a given. … My feeling is we still need that last washout on big volume … and then I think you’re going to see one of the greatest rallies of all time. You’re going to see an enormous tsunami to the upside, with gold probably hitting $3,000. And this could be within 12 to 18 months.”

 – William Kaye

Gb.1

Setelah kenaikan besar emas menembus strong resistance $1350, harganya tertahan di sekitar $1390 dan kemudian terkoreksi dalam 2 pekan terakhir ini.

Hal ini terjadi karena mulai redanya eskalasi geopolitik sejak Crimea bergabung ke Rusia serta sejumlah komentar dari pimpinan bank sentral AS Janet Yellen.

Yellen mengatakan bahwa bank sentral AS akan segera menaikkan suku bunga, sehingga memicu tekanan harga emas dan mendukung kenaikan dolar AS.

Bahkan, Yellen dengan jelas menyatakan bahwa bank sentral AS dapat saja menaikkan suku bunga paling tidak dalam kurun waktu sekitar 6 bulan setelah mengakhiri program stimulusnya, yang saat ini masih akan berjalan hingga kuartal terakhir 2014.

Hal ini mendorong nilai kas dan obligasi jangka pendek serta menekan daya tarik logam mulia, yang tidak memiliki yield.

Sehingga, FOMC-meeting Maret yang ternyata lebih hawkish dari yang diduga itu, memicu pembentukan puncak harga emas dalam jangka pendek, karena kemudian terjadi penurunan yang cukup cepat dan tajam.

Kenaikan emas tempo hari hanya menunjukkan kepada kita mengenai false-breakout klasik – harga menembus wilayah resistance hanya sementara untuk kemudian merosot kembali secara signifikan.

Dan penjelasan mengenai flase-breakout adalah bahwa biasanya harga akan cenderung berbalik arah dengan cepat. Seperti yang terlihat pada pergerakan harga emas saat ini.

Jadi emas, yang sejak kuartal pertama 2014 terus naik, membentuk puncak penting pada 16 Maret 2014, di $1391,96, dan kemudian turun kembali ke 1278.25 hingga saat ini.

Pertanyaannya adalah seberapa jauh harga emas akan turun. Mungkin masih akan turun lebih jauh jika kita yakin apa yang dikatakan Goldman Sachs yang belum lama ini merekomendasikan untuk “sell your gold”.

 

Berikut adalah laporan Damien Courvalin dari Goldman Sachs. yang nampaknya sangat bersentimen bearish pada emas:

Cold, Crimea & China: Transient supports to gold prices

The 2014 gold rally brought prices to their highest level since September before a more hawkish-than-expected March FOMC pushed prices sharply lower. Three distinct and in our view transient catalysts have driven this rally: (1) a sharp slowdown in US economic activity which we believe was weather driven, (2) high Chinese credit concerns, although ultimately bearish for gold demand through lower financing deals if realized, and (3) escalating tensions over Ukraine. While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both US and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration. Importantly, it would require a significant sustained slowdown in US growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower US gold prices over the next two years.

Re-acceleration in US activity will push gold prices lower

While we see clear catalysts for the recent rally in gold prices, this move has been large relative to US real rates which are a key input into our forecasts and benchmarking of gold prices. As a result, we see potential for a meaningful decline in gold prices towards the level implied by 10-year TIPS yields, which our rates strategists expect to rise further this year, and reiterate our year-end $1,050/toz gold price forecast. More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE, US economic releases are back the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing US growth.

Indian and Chinese gold demand unlikely to surprise to the upside

Weak Indian gold imports and surging Chinese imports were the most important shifts in EM gold demand last year, although these trade statistics likely overestimated shifts in local gold demand given reported gold smuggling into India and the use of gold in Chinese financing deals. While we see potential for these shifts to reverse in 2014, we estimate the net impact will not be meaningful to our gold outlook as: (1) India’s potential easing of gold import tariffs will likely remain modest given how much lower gold imports have contributed to its improved trade balance, (2) we expect a gradual unwind of gold backed financing deals.

Gb.2

Full note below:

 

GS_Gold

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Toby Connor, penulis pada Gold Scents, sebuah blog finansial yang sangat menekankan pada the gold secular bull market, belum lama ini merilis laporan luar biasa mengenai emas:

Sejak September 2013, saya sudah memprediksi bahwa harga emas akan melemah lebih lanjut dengan target antara $1000 dan $1100, dan nampaknya Connor juga demikian.

Silahkan lihat tulisannya yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, dan bertindaklah yang sesuai:

 

Gold Setup for a Final Takedown

“Precious metals are being heavily manipulated right now. When gold was turned back down and lost the breakout above the September FOMC manipulation top, which was a warning flag for me to take profits in our metals portfolio. The pre-market attack last Monday to break the intermediate trend line confirmed, at least for me, that the precious metals were again under attack and the forces at work in this market were going to try to extend the bear market.

Gb.3

Notice how gold is now deviating from the rest of the commodity sector. I don’t think this would happen in a natural market.

Gb.4

I believe the metals are being set up to take a massive beating when the CRB drops down into its summer correction. During that correction gold will be moving into its yearly cycle low (YCL’s are the most damaging correction of the year for any asset). I fully expect the forces controlling the gold market will try to break that double bottom at $ 1180 and take gold down to $1050.

Notice that gold’s yearly cycle is left translated. Left translated cycles more often than not make a lower low. You have to hand it to these guys; they have played the metals perfectly over the last year and a half. They managed to manufacture a completely artificial bear market, and now that they have turned gold’s intermediate cycle back down they have set the stage to take gold down to $1050 this summer which has been their goal all along.

Gb.5

And I think the motivation for this is the same that it has always been. The profit potential is much greater from the $1000 level than it is from the $1800 level. Make no mistake the entire purpose of this year and a half long bear raid has been to manufacture a lower D-wave bottom, thereby massively increasing long side profit potential. In the process they’ve managed to also make some good money on the short side. I think they’ve also intentionally damaged the physical supply side of the metals market knowing that that would exacerbate the rally once the manipulation was released, and the secular trend is allowed to resume.

Not only have the banking cartel manufactured a lucrative short trade, they have damaged the physical market enough that we will likely see a huge move from $1050 back to $1800-$2000 over a 4-6 month period once the manipulation is removed at the yearly cycle low and these banks flip sides and position long.

I think over the next three months J.P. Morgan, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs are going to stretch the rubber band so tight in the metals market that when they finally release it it’s going to generate a surge comparable to what we just witnessed in the coffee market. Unlike the coffee market though, the metals market is big enough that these players can take large positions and make serious money off of that move.

Gb.6

Predicting where this market is going to go in the short term would require inside information as to the banking cartel’s intentions next week. Unfortunately I doubt they are going to send us a memo on that. However I think we can probably assume that the third daily cycle once it rolls over, is going to be devastating to the precious metals market. And I expect we will also have a fourth daily cycle before the yearly cycle low is complete. That fourth daily cycle will probably take gold back down to $1050 and a final bear market bottom if the cartel has its way.

Gb.7

So while I know this is tough to hear, as most of you are gold bugs, I am confident that the banking cartel has a purpose, and that purpose is to set up what will probably be one of the most lucrative long side trades in the metals of this entire secular bull market. Our job right now is to be patient and wait for that yearly cycle low later this summer. I think that low is going to drop at least down to retest $1200, and if the cartel has its way, they will push gold back to $1050 before this is over. For the next several weeks it’s going to be safer to trade oil, or corn, or copper, etc. But step aside from the metals and let the cartel do its thing. In the end they are going to manufacture a truly amazing opportunity as long as one has the patience to let them finish their business before going back into metal trades.”

Untuk jangka waktu yang lebih pendek, seperti Anda lihat pada grafik terakhir Tobby Connor di atas, harga emas bisa saja naik dari setiap areal low pada siklus bearish mendatang.

Untuk itu, sebaiknya kita baca juga laporan menarik lainnya dari John C. Burford, seorang editor pada MoneyWeek Trader, yang mengatakan bahwa harga emas sudah dekat di areal terendahnya:

 

The best time to trade against hedge funds

“Hedge funds are among the biggest players in the market, so we need to keep track of their activities. As I have pointed out, they are largely trend-followers. They are momentum traders and use trading programs that track the momentum of the market.
And because they trade in huge quantities, they are not as nimble as small traders. This means that it takes much longer for the hedgies to change tack – and that’s one reason they are often wrong at market turns. So today I’ll tell you how investors can benefit from their mistakes.

 

Why small traders love a good story

One of the best times to take advantage of the hedge funds is when a story can be built around a particular bullish or bearish stance.

Why? Because small traders just love a good story! And this group can enhance market moves. In December, they had fallen in love with the ‘gold is bad’ story. Sentiment measures were pointing to record low levels of bearishness, with the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) reaching an extreme low at the 5% level at one point.

There were widespread forecasts of sub-$1000 gold.

Then in January the market started turning up and sentiment turned with it.

I used this information to position on the long side of the market. The oversold condition was correcting as a new gold story was finding favor (gold is good). This new story was based on the heightened Ukraine conflict and reports that China was buying physical metal in volume.

The hedge funds were at the fore in predicting $1400 gold, which was my original target in early January.

And as the market approached this target, DSI readings had reached an extreme 85% bullish level.

But as I wrote, this target was missed (as I forecast) and in just ten days, the market fell $100 to last week’s low of $1285.

 

How to know what hedge funds are doing

Luckily, we don’t have to guess what hedge funds are up to – we have the COT data.

In my 24 March email, the market was declining off the $1388 high where the COT data was showing that the hedge funds had built up a four-to-one bullish position.

Here is the latest COT data which refers to the 25 March picture:

Gb.8The non-commercials (largely hedge funds) sold a large chunk of their longs and increased their shorts last week. That means they now hold only three longs to one short.

But has this driven out the froth so that the market can stage a rally?

Will the gold support hold?

This was the chart I had last time:

Gb.9If the larger trend was still up, then I expect the decline to have an A-B-C form.


And if an A-B-C did form, a positive momentum divergence would add strength to the ongoing rally case.

This is the updated chart this morning:

Gb.10Since last time, the market has declined on cue – and precisely to the meeting of the tramline and the Fibonacci 50% level, where the decline has retraced 50% of the entire rally off the 31 December low.

Remember, the 50% level is a common retracement if the main trend is still intact. Also, if my tramlines are still working, there should be a kiss on it before the uptrend resumes.

And the positive momentum divergence I had suggested last time has appeared (red bar).

 

Gold is starting to look interesting

One other piece of information: At last week’s low, wave C equals wave A in height. Remember, another common relationship in an A-B-C corrective pattern is the equality of the A and C waves. This is significant.

So it appears the odds are building up for a bounce from near current levels if my C wave has ended.

Not only that, but the latest DSI readings have fallen sharply off the bullish extremes of two weeks ago.

This is starting to look interesting!”

 

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, adalah 2 gambar lucu mengenai anjing dan kucing, untuk Anda supaya selalu ceria hari ini:

Gb.11

 

Gb.12

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat 02 April 2014

Categories: Uncategorized Tags:

Sejarah Panjang Manipulasi Harga Emas

January 31st, 2014 No comments

“Gold is a manipulated market. Period. 2013 was the year that manipulation finally began to unravel. 2014? Well now, THIS could be the year that true price discovery begins in the gold market. If that turns out to be the case, it will be driven by a scramble to perfect ownership of physical gold; and to do that you will be forced to pay a lot more than $1247/oz. Count on it.”

– Grant Williams, the editor of Things That Make You Go Hmmm…

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“The gold market is the most manipulated market in the world. It is not free-and-fair in any way. Governments are also setting interest rates at will and this is impacting the housing, commodity markets, and every other financial market. But with a situation like this it is only a matter of time before the gold and silver markets explode higher. I don’t know when the bearish phase in gold and silver will end, but when it does it will end with a bang. Meaning, gold and silver will turn violently higher.”

– Keith Barron

 

Belakangan ini banyak tulisan mengenai proses “gold fixing” London yang dianggap curang (ada manipulasi), bahkan Bloomberg baru-baru ini menemukan manipulasi yang terang-terangan.

Karena banyak investor yang mungkin belum mengetahui bagaimana manipulasi harga emas ini akan berlanjut, maka dalam kesempatan ini saya persembahkan beberapa artikel yang WAJIB DIBACA yang ditulis oleh Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com.

Bacalah artikelnya dengan seksama dan darinya mungkin bisa memberikan Anda keuntungan dari tekanan harga emas:

1)   How Gold Price Is Manipulated During The “London Fix” (November 25th)

There was a time when the merest mention of gold manipulation in “reputable” media was enough to have one branded a perpetual conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil farm out back. That was roughly coincident with a time when Libor, FX, mortgage, and bond market manipulation was also considered unthinkable, when High Frequency Traders were believed to “provide liquidity”, or when the stock market was said to not be manipulated by the Fed, and when the ever-confused media, always eager to take “complicated” financial concepts at the face value set by a self-serving establishment, never dared to question anything. Luckily, all that changed in the past several years, and it has gotten to the point where even the bastions of “serious”, if 3-5 years delayed, investigation are finally not only asking how is the gold market being manipulated, but are actually providing answers.

      Such as Bloomberg.

The topic of gold market manipulation during the London AM fix is not new to Zero Hedge: in fact we have discussed both the historical basis and the raison d’être of the London gold fix, as well as the curious arbitrage available to those who merely traded the AM-PM spread, for years. Which is why we are delighted that none other than Bloomberg has decided to break it down for everyone, as well as summarize all the ways in which just this one facet of gold trading is being manipulated.

      Bloomberg begins:

Every business day in London, five banks meet to set the price of gold in a ritual that dates back to 1919. Now, dealers and economists say knowledge gleaned on those calls could give some traders an unfair advantage when buying and selling the precious metal. The London fix, the benchmark rate used by mining companies, jewelers and central banks to buy, sell and value the metal, is published twice daily after a telephone call involving Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC Holdings Plc and Société Générale SA.

The fix dates back to September 1919, less than a year after the end of World War I, when representatives from five dealers met at Rothschild’s office on St. Swithin’s Lane in London’s financial district. It was suspended for 15 years, starting in 1939. While Rothschild pulled out in 2004 and the discussions now take place by telephone instead of in a wood-paneled room at the bank, the process remains much the same.

That much is known. What is certainly known is that any process that involves five banks sitting down (until recently literally) and exchanging information using arcane methods (such as a telephone), on a set schedule that involves a private information blackout phase, even if temporary, and that does not involve instant market feedback, can and will be gamed. “Traders involved in this price-determining process have knowledge which, even for a short time, is superior to other people’s knowledge,” said Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Frankfurt-based precious-metals broker Degussa Goldhandel GmbH and a former economist at Barclays. “That is the great flaw of the London gold-fixing.”

      There are other flaws.

Participants on the London call can tell whether the price of gold is rising or falling within a minute or so, based on whether there are a large number of net buyers or sellers after the first round, according to gold traders, academics and investors interviewed by Bloomberg News. It’s this feature that could allow dealers and others in receipt of the information to bet on the direction of the market with a high degree of certainty minutes before the fix is made public, they said.

Yes, the broader momentum creation and ignition perspective is also known to most. At least most who never believed the boilerplate that unlike all other asset classes, gold is somehow immune from manipulation.

“Information trickles down from the five banks, through to their clients and finally to the broader market,” Andrew Caminschi, a lecturer at the University of Western Australia in Perth and co-author of a Sept. 2 paper on trading spikes around the London gold fix published online in the Journal of Futures Markets, said by phone. “In a world where trading advantage is measured in milliseconds, that has some value.”

Ah, hypothetical – smart. One mustn’t ruffle feathers before, like in the case of Libor, it becomes fact that everyone was in on it.

There’s no evidence that gold dealers sought to manipulate the London fix or worked together to rig prices, as traders did with Libor. Even so, economists and academics say the way the benchmark is set is outdated, vulnerable to abuse and lacking any direct regulatory oversight. “This is one of the most concerning fixings I have seen,” said Rosa Abrantes-Metz, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business whose 2008 paper, “Libor Manipulation?” helped spark a global probe. “It’s controlled by a handful of firms with a direct financial interest in where it’s set, and there is virtually no oversight — and it’s based on information exchanged among them during undisclosed calls.”

Unless we are wrong, there was no evidence of Libor manipulative collusion before there was evidence either. And since the cabal of the London gold fix is far smaller than the member banks of Libor, it is exponentially easier to confine intent within an even smaller group of people. But all that is also known to most.

As is the fact that when asked for comments, ‘spokesmen for Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Société Générale declined to comment about the London fix or the regulatory probes, as did Chris Hamilton, a spokesman for the FCA, and Steve Adamske at the CFTC. Joe Konecny, a spokesman for Bank of Nova Scotia, wrote in an e-mail that the Toronto-based company has “a deeply rooted compliance culture and a drive to continually look toward ways to improve our existing processes and practices.”

Next, Bloomberg conveniently goes into the specifics of just how the gold price is manipulated first by the fixing banks, then by their “friends and neighbors” as news of the fixing process unfolds.

At the start of the call, the designated chairman — the job rotates annually among the five banks — gives a figure close to the current spot price in dollars for an ounce of gold. The firms then declare how many bars of the metal they wish to buy or sell at that price, based on orders from clients as well as their own account.

If there are more buyers than sellers, the starting price is raised and the process begins again. The talks continue until the buy and sell amounts are within 50 bars, or about 620 kilograms, of each other. The procedure is carried out twice a day, at 10:30 a.m. and 3 p.m. in London. Prices are set in dollars, pounds and euros. Similar gauges exist for silver, platinum and palladium.

The traders relay shifts in supply and demand to clients during the calls and take fresh orders to buy or sell as the price changes, according to the website of London Gold Market Fixing, which publishes the results of the fix.

.. only this time the manipulation is no longer confined to a purely theoretical plane and instead empirical evidence of the fixing leak is presented based on academic research:

Caminschi and Richard Heaney, a professor of accounting and finance at the University of Western Australia, analyzed two of the most widely traded gold derivatives: gold futures on Comex and State Street Corp.’s SPDR Gold Trust, the largest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, from 2007 through 2012.

At 3:01 p.m., after the start of the call, trading surged to 47.8 percent above the average for the 20-minute period preceding the start of the fix and remained 20 percent higher for the next six minutes, Caminschi and Heaney found. By comparison, trading was 8.7 percent higher than the average a minute after publication of the price. The results showed a similar pattern for the SPDR Gold Trust.

“Intuitively, we expect volumes to spike following the introduction of information to the market” when the final result is published, Caminschi and Heaney wrote in “Fixing a Leaky Fixing: Short-Term Market Reactions to the London P.M. Gold Price Fixing.” “What we observe in our analysis is a clustering of trades immediately following the fixing start.”

The researchers also assessed how accurate movements in gold derivatives were in predicting the final fix. Between 2:59 p.m. and 3 p.m., the direction of futures contracts matched the direction of the fix about half the time.

From 3:01 p.m., the success rate jumped to 69.9 percent, and within five minutes it had climbed to 80 percent, Caminschi and Heaney wrote. On days when the gold price per ounce moved by more than $3, gold futures successfully predicted the outcome in more than nine out of 10 occasions. “Not only are the trades quite accurate in predicting the fixing direction, the more money that is made by way of a larger price change, the more accurate the trade becomes,” Caminschi and Heaney wrote. “This is highly suggestive of information leaking from the fixing to these public markets.”

Oh please, 9 out of 10 times is hardly indicative of any wrongdoing. After all, JPM lost money on, well, zero trading days in all of 2013, and nobody cares. So if a coin landing heads about 200 times in a row is considered normal by regulators, then surely the CTFC will find nothing wrong with a little gold manipulation here and there. Manipulation, which it itself previously said did not exist. But everyone already knew that too.

Cynicism aside, to claim that this clearly gamed process is not in fact gamed, not to say criminally manipulated (because it is never manipulation unless one is caught in the act by enforcers who are actually not in on the scheme) is the height of idiocy. This is why we are certain that regulators will go precisely this route. That too is also largely known. Also known are the benefits for traders who abuse the London fix:

For derivatives traders, the benefits are clear: A dealer who bought 500 gold futures contracts at 3 p.m. and knew the fix was going higher could make $200,000 for his firm if the price moved by $4, the average move in the sample. While the value of 500 contracts totals about $60 million, traders may buy on margin, a process that involves borrowing and requires placing less capital for the bet. On a typical day, about 4,500 futures contracts are traded between 3 p.m. and 3:15 p.m., according to Caminschi and Heaney.

Finally what is certainly known is that the “London fixing” fix would be very simple in our day and age of ultramodern technology, and require a few minutes of actual implementation.

Abrantes-Metz, who helped Iosco formulate its guidelines, said the gold fix’s shortcomings may stretch beyond giving firms and clients access to privileged information. “There is a huge incentive for these banks to try and influence where the benchmark is set depending on their trading positions, and there is almost no scrutiny,” she said.

Abrantes-Metz said the gold fix should be replaced with a benchmark calculated by taking a snapshot of trading in a market where $19.6 trillion of the precious metal circulated last year, according to CPM Group, a New York-based research company. “There’s no reason why data cannot be collected from actual prices of spot gold based on floor or electronic trading,” she said. “There’s more than enough data.”

      This is precisely why nothing will change. Sadly, that is also widely known.

So did Bloomberg put together an exhaustive article in which virtually everything was known a priori? it turns out the answer is no: we learned one thing.

London Gold Market Fixing Ltd., a company controlled by the five banks that administers the benchmark, has no permanent employees. A call from Bloomberg News was referred to Douglas Beadle, 68, a former Rothschild banker, who acts as a consultant to the company from his home in Caterham, a small commuter town 45 minutes south of London by train. Beadle declined to comment on the benchmark-setting process.

You learn something new every day (incidentally, the same Douglas Beadle who acted as a consultant to the LBMA until March 2010 and was involved from the outset in the project to find a suitable scale for the electronic weighing of gold as documented in “Electronic Weighing of Gold – A Success Story“).

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2)   The Complete And Unabridged History Of Gold Manipulation (December 4th)

On November 1st, 1961, an agreement was reached between the central banks of the United States and seven European countries to cooperate in achieving a shared, and very clearly stated, aim.

The agreement became known as the London Gold Pool, and it had a very explicit purpose: to keep the price of gold suppressed “under control” and pegged regulated at $35/oz. through interventions in the London gold market whenever the price got to be a little… frisky.

      The construct was a simple one.

The eight central banks would all chip in an amount of gold to the initial “kitty.” Then they would sell enough of the pooled gold to cap any price rises and then replace that which they had been forced to sell on any subsequent weakness.

Nico-9

*Statement is subject to standard terms and conditions and is not necessarily reflective of any evidence. Government entities are excluded from inclusion based on the fact that we can’t really do anything about them and anyway; they could put us out of business; and it would make things really, really bad for them. Also, bullion banks are not covered under this statement because we were told to turn a blind eye; but individual investors are, and we can categorically confirm that, to the best of our knowledge, no individuals are manipulating the precious metals markets (at this time).

But, as Grant Williams explains in this excellent and complete summary of the history of Gold price manipulation, things don’t always go as planned…

Human beings, when given means and motive, have rather a poor history of eschewing the easy profit in favor of doing the right thing. Governments, when faced with dilemmas, have a rather poor history of doing the right thing as opposed to whatever they think they need to do in order to cling to power. It’s quite simple.

Libor, FX rates, and mortgages trades are all fiat in nature. The contracts that are exchanged have no tangible value. (Yes, technically speaking, mortgages have houses underneath them, but the houses are so far down the securitization chain as to be invisible). Such contracts can be created at the push of a button or the stroke of a pen and manipulated easily right up until the point where they can’t.

      Gold is a different beast altogether.

The manipulation of the gold price takes place in a paper market — away from the physical supply of the metal itself. That metal trades on a premium to the futures contract for a very good reason: it has real, intrinsic value, unlike its paper nemesis.

If you want to manipulate the price of a paper futures contract lower, you simply sell that paper. Sell it long, sell it short, it doesn’t matter — it is a forward promise. You can always roll it over at a later date or cover it back at a profit if the price moves lower in the interim.

      And of course you can do it on margin.

If the trading were actually in the metal itself, then in order to weaken the price you would have to continue to find more physical metal in order to continue selling; and, as is well documented, there just isn’t so much of it around: in recent years what little there is has been pouring into the sorts of places from which it doesn’t come back — not at these price levels, anyway.

The London Gold Pool had one thing in common with the rigging of the FX, Libor, and mortgage markets: it worked until it didn’t.

The London Gold Pool proved that central banks can collude cooperate to rig maintain the price of gold at what they deem manageable levels, but it also proved that at some point the pressure exerted by market forces to restore the natural order of things becomes overwhelming, and even the strongest cartels groups (whose interests happen to be aligned) — which are made up of the very institutions granted the power to create money out of thin air — can’t fight the battle any longer.

Nico-10

…The problem now is that currently there are almost 70 claims on every ounce of gold in the COMEX warehouse and serious doubts about the physical metal available for delivery at the LBMA.

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This leads us to today…

The London Gold Pool was designed to keep the price of gold capped in an era when the world’s reserve currency had a tangible backing. In defending the price, the eight members of the Pool were forced to sell way more gold than they had initially contributed in order to keep the price from going where it desperately wanted to go — higher.

This time around, the need for the price to be capped has nothing to do with any kind of gold standard and everything to do with the defense of the fractional reserve gold lending system, about which I have written and spoken many times.

Gold is moving to ever stronger hands, and when the dam does inevitably break again, the true price will be discovered by natural market forces, free of interference.

This time, however, those chasing what little gold is available will include all those central banks that have kept their holdings “safe” in overseas vaults.

The Bundesbank has seen the writing on the wall and demanded its gold back. They were told it would take seven years before their 30 tons could be returned to them.

      My guess is, this little scheme doesn’t have seven years left to play out.

      Everybody outta the pool!

      Full Grant Williams letter here:

TTMYGH Twisted (by the Pool)

 

3)   The FT Goes There: “Demand Physical Gold” As One Day Paper Price Manipulation Will End “Catastrophically” (January 25th)

What have we done: after a series of reports in late 2012 in which we showed, with no ambiguity, that not only might the Bundesbank’s offshore held gold be severely “diluted” (follow our 2012 exposes on German gold here, here, here, and here), but that on at least one occasion, the Fed and the Bank of England conspired against the Buba in returning subpar quality gold, the Bundesbank shocked everyone in early January 2013 when it announced it would repatriate 300 tons of gold held in New York and all of its 374 tons of gold held in Paris. But convincing the Bundesbank to demand delivery was peanuts compared to changing the tune of the Financial Times – that bastion of fiat “money”, and where the word gold is mocked and ridiculed, and those who see the daily improprieties in the gold market as nothing but “conspiracy theorists” – to say the magic words: “Learn from Buba and demand delivery for true price of gold”, adding that “one day the ties that bind this pixilated gold may break, with potentially catastrophic results.

      In other words, precisely what we have been saying since the beginning.

      Welcome to the ‘conspiracy theorist’ club, boys.

From the FT’s Neil Collins: “Learn from Buba and demand delivery for true price of gold: One day the ties that bind the actual and the traded commodity will snap:

A year ago the Bundesbank announced that it intended to repatriate 700 tons of Germany’s gold from Paris and New York. Although a couple of jumbo jets could have managed the transatlantic removal, it made security sense to ship the load in smaller consignments. Just how small, and over how long, has only just become apparent.

Last month Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, admitted that just 37 tons had arrived in Frankfurt. The original timescale, to complete the transfer by 2020, was leisurely enough, but at this rate it would take 20 years for a simple operation. Well, perhaps not so simple. While he awaits delivery, Herr Weidmann is welcome to come and look through the bars in the Federal Reserve’s vaults, but the question is: whose bars are they?

In the “armchair farmer” fraud you are told: “Look, this is your pig, in the sty.” It works until everyone wants physical delivery of their pig, which is why Buba’s move last year caused such a stir. After all nobody knows whether there are really 260m ounces of gold in Fort Knox, because the US government won’t let auditors inside.

The delivery problem for the Fed is a different breed of pig. The gold market is far more than exchanging paper money for precious metal. Indeed the metal seems something of a sideshow. In June last year the average volume of gold cleared in London hit 29m ounces per day. The world’s mines are producing 90m ounces per year. The traded volume was many times the cleared volume.

The paper gold in the London Bullion Market takes the familiar forms that bankers have turned into profit machines: futures, options, leveraged trades, collateralized obligations, ETFs . . . a storm of exotic instruments, each of which is carefully logged, cross-checked and audited.

Or perhaps not. High-flying traders find such backroom work tedious, and prefer to let some drone do it, just as they did with those money-market instruments that fuelled the banking crisis. The drones will have full control of the paper trail, won’t they? There’s surely no chance that the Fed’s little delivery difficulty has anything to do with the cat’s-cradle of pledges based on the gold in its vaults?

John Hathaway suspects there is. He worries about all the paper (and pixels) linked to gold. He runs the Tocqueville gold fund (the clue is in the name) and doesn’t share the near-universal gloom of London’s gold analysts, who a year ago forecast an average $1700 for 2013. It is currently $1,260.

As has been remarked here before, forecasting the price is for mugs and bugs. But one day the ties that bind this pixilated gold may break, with potentially catastrophic results. So if you fancy gold at today’s depressed price, learn from Buba and demand delivery.

4)   The Big Reset, Part 2 (January 25th)

      Submitted by Koos Jansen of In Gold We Trust

      This is part two of a Q&A with Willem Middelkoop about his new book The Big Reset. In his book      a chapter on the ‘War on Gold’ takes a prominent position. Willem has been writing about the           manipulation of the gold price since 2002 based on information collected by GATA since the late    1990’s. So part two of our interview will focus on this topic.

     

The War On Gold 

Why Does The US Fight Gold?

      The US wants its dollar system to prevail for as long as possible. It therefore has every interest in      preventing a ‘rush out of dollars into gold’. By selling (paper) gold, bankers have been trying in the      last few decades to keep the price of gold under control. This war on gold has been going on for       almost one hundred years, but it gained traction in the 1960′s with the forming of the London Gold    Pool. Just like the London Gold Pool failed in 1969, the current manipulation scheme of gold (and     silver prices) cannot be maintained for much longer.

     

What is the Essence Of The War on Gold

            The survival of our current financial system depends on people preferring fiat money over gold.   After the dollar was taken of the gold standard in 1971, bankers have tried to demonetize gold. One of the arguments they use to deter investors from buying gold and silver is that these metals do not deliver a direct return such as interest or dividends. But interest and dividend are payments to compensate for counterparty risk – the risk that your counterparty is unable to live up to its obligations. Gold doesn’t carry that risk. The war on gold is, in essence, an endeavor to support the dollar. But this is certainly not the only reason. According to a number of studies, the level of the gold price and the general public’s expectations of inflation are highly correlated. Central bankers work hard to influence inflation expectations. A 1988 study by Summers and Barsky confirmed that the price of gold and interest rates are highly correlated, as well with a lower gold price leading to lower interest rates.

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When Did the War on Gold Start?

The first evidence of US meddling in the gold market can be found as early as 1925 when the Fed falsified information regarding the Bank of England’s possession of gold in order to influence interest rate levels. However, the war on gold only really took off in the 1960′s when trust in the  dollar started to fray. Geopolitical conflicts such as the building of the Berlin Wall, the Cuban   Missile Crisis and the escalation of violence in Vietnam led to increasing military spending by the US, which in turn resulted in growing US budget deficits. A memorandum from 1961 entitled

US Foreign Exchange Operations: Needs and Methods’ described a detailed plan to manipulate  the currency and gold markets via structural interventions in order to support the dollar and    maintain the gold price at $ 35 per ounce. It was vital for the US to ‘manage’ the gold market;   otherwise countries could exchange their surplus dollars for gold and then sell these ounces on the free gold market for a higher price.

 

How Was The Gold Price Managed In The 1960′s?

During meetings of the central bank presidents at the BIS in 1961, it was agreed that a pool of $270 million in gold would be made available by the eight participating (western) countries. This so-called ‘London Gold Pool’ was focused on preventing the gold price from rising above $ 35 per ounce by selling official gold holdings from the central banks gold vaults. The idea was that if        investors attempted to flee to the safe haven of gold, the London Gold Pool would dump gold onto       the market in order to keep the gold price from rising. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, for  instance, at least $ 60 million in gold was sold between 22 and 24 October. The IMF provided   extra gold to be sold on the market when needed. In 2010, a number of previously secret US telex  reports from 1968 were made public by Wikileaks. These messages describe what had to be  done in order to keep the gold price under control. The aim was to convince investors that it was completely pointless to speculate on a rise in the price of gold. One of the reports mentions a         propaganda campaign to convince the public that the central banks would remain ‘the masters of   gold’. Despite these efforts, in March 1968, the London Gold Pool was disbanded because France  would no longer cooperate. The London gold market remained closed for two weeks. In other gold   markets around the world, gold immediately rose 25% in value. This can happen again when the  COMEX will default.

     

More Evidence About This Manipulation?

From the transcript of a March 1978 Fed-meeting, we know that the manipulation of the gold price  was a point of discussion at that time. During the meeting Fed Chairman Miller pointed out that it  was not even necessary to sell gold in order to bring the price down. According to him, it was  enough to bring out a statement that the Fed was intending to sell gold.

Because the US Treasury is not legally allowed to sell its gold reserves, the Fed decided in 1995  to examine whether it was possible to set up a special construction whereby so-called ‘gold     swaps’ could bring in gold from the gold reserves of Western central banks. In this construction,      the gold would be ‘swapped’ with the Fed, which would then be sold by Wall Street banks in order      to keep prices down. Because of the ‘swap agreement’, the gold is officially only lent out, so Western central banks could keep it on their balance sheets as ‘gold receivables’. The Fed started   to informing foreign central bankers that they expected that the gold price to decline further, and     large quantities of central banks’ gold became be available to sell in the open market. Logistically  this was an easy operation, since the New York Fed vaults had the largest collection of foreign    gold holdings. Since the 1930′s, many Western countries had chosen to store their gold safely in     the US out of fears of a German or Soviet invasion.

Didn’t The British Help As Well By Unloading Gold At The Bottom Of The Market?

Between 1999 and 2002, the UK embarked on an aggressive selling of its gold reserves, when    gold prices were at their lowest in 20 years. Prior to starting, the Chancellor of the Exchequer,   Gordon Brown, announced that the UK would be selling more than half of its gold reserves in a   series of auctions in order to diversify the assets of the UK’s reserves. The markets’ reaction was    one of shock, because sales of gold reserves by governments had until then always taken place   without any advance warning to investors. Brown was following the Fed’s strategy of inducing a fall in the gold price via an announcement of possible sales. Brown’s move was therefore not         intended to receive the best price for its gold but rather to bring down the price of gold as low as possible. The UK eventually sold almost 400 tons of gold over 17 auctions in just three years, just as the gold market was bottoming out. Gordon Brown’s sale of the UK’s gold reserves probably  came about following a request from the US. The US supported Brown ever since.

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How Do They Manipulate Gold Nowadays?

The transition from open outcry (where traders stand in a trading pit and shout out orders) to electronic trading gave new opportunities to control financial markets. Wall Street veteran lawyer     Jim Rickards presented a paper in 2006 in which he explained how ‘derivatives could be used to      manipulate underlying physical markets such as oil, copper and gold’. In his bestseller entitled             Currency Wars, he explains how the prohibition of derivatives regulation in the Commodity   Futures Modernization Act (2000) had ‘opened the door to exponentially greater size and variety      in these instruments that are now hidden off the balance sheets of the major banks, making them       almost impossible to monitor’. These changes made it much easier to manipulate financial     markets, especially because prices for metals such as gold and silver are set by trading future        contracts on the global markets. Because up to 99% of these transactions are conducted on          behalf of speculators who do not aim for physical delivery and are content with paper profits,             markets can be manipulated by selling large amounts of contracts in gold, silver or other          commodities (on paper). The $200 crash of the gold price April 12 and 15, 2013 is a perfect         example of this strategy. The crash after silver reached $50 on May 1, 2011 is another textbook          example.

For How Long Can This Paper-Gold Game Continue?

As you have been reporting yourself we can witness several indications pointing towards great           stress in the physical gold market. I would be very surprised when the current paper gold game      can be continued for another two years. This system might even fall apart in 2014. A default in   gold and/or silver futures on the COMEX is a real possibility. It happened to the potato market in         1976 when a potato-futures default happened on the NYMEX. An Idaho potato magnate went       short potatoes in huge numbers, leaving a large amount of contracts unsettled at the expiration       date, resulting in a large number of defaulted delivery contracts.

So it has happened before. In such a scenario futures contracts holders will be cash settled. So I       expect the Comex will have to move to cash settlement rather than gold delivery at a certain             point in the not too distant future. After such an event the price of gold will be set in Asian       markets, like the Shanghai Gold Exchange. I expect gold to jump $1000 in a short period of time and silver prices could easily double overnight. That’s one of the reasons our

Commodity Discovery Fund invests in undervalued precious metal companies with large       gold/silver       reserves. They all have huge up-side potential in the next few years when this             scenario will play out.

       In Gold We Trust

Synopsis of The Big Reset: Now five years after the near fatal collapse of world’s financial system    we have to conclude central bankers and politicians have merely been buying time by trying to           solve a credit crisis by creating even more debt. As a result worldwide central bank’s balance       sheets expanded by $10 trillion. With this newly created money central banks have been buying         up national bonds so long term interest rates and bond yields have collapsed. But ‘parking’ debt at    national banks is no structural solution. The idea we can grow our way back out of this mountain       of debt is a little naïve. In a recent working paper by the IMF titled ‘Financial and Sovereign Debt           Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten’ the economist Reinhart and Rogoff point to            this ‘denial problem’. According to them future economic growth will ‘not be sufficient to cope with       the sheer magnitude of public and private debt overhangs. Rogoff and Reinhart conclude the size     of the debt problems suggests that debt restructurings will be needed ‘far beyond anything      discussed in public to this point.’ The endgame to the global financial crisis is likely to require            restructuring of debt on a broad scale.

 About the author: Willem Middelkoop (1962) is founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and a        bestselling Dutch author, who has been writing about the world’s financial system since the early      2000s. Between 2001 and 2008 he was a market commentator for RTL Television in the         Netherlands and also appeared on CNBC. He predicted the credit crisis in his first bestseller in      2007.

Link Willem Middelkoop

What Do the Charts Say?

Per 17 Januari ada sekitar 500 ribu troy ounce emas terdaftar, dan ada 111,6 pemilik di setiap troy ounce-nya.

Saat ini ada 41,309 juta troy ounce kontrak berjangka emas yang diperdagangkan – diistilahkan juga dengan ‘paper gold’, artinya bukan emas sungguhan/fisik.

Karena demikian besarnya, tentunya jika hanya sebagian kecil saja para pemilik kontrak berjangka emas tersebut menginginkan delivery, maka dapat mendorong kenaikan harga emas.

Inilah yang oleh John Hathaway, salah satu yang pandangannya terhadap emas paling disegani di dunia, dibahas baru-baru ini dalam wawancaranya dengan King World News

(www.kingworldnews.com).

Dalam pembahasannya tersebut, Mr. Hathaway juga menyertakan grafik yang sangat menarik untuk diamati:

“Bullion banks are extending credit to trading entities — probably high-frequency traders, hedge funds, and the other usual suspects — that don’t have any physical gold at all….

These entities are just using the price of physical gold as an index — it’s just like LIBOR.  As far as I’m concerned, the more leveraged these entities are when things turn around, and then they realize they are obviously on the wrong side of the trade, the more explosive the upside will be.

Some are asking, ‘How far can they stretch the rubber band?’  We thought 90 to 1 was pretty stretched, and yet here we are at 112 to 1.

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It ultimately comes down to the willingness of bullion banks to extend credit with very little connection to gold, other than using it as a reference point for profit and loss, to people with a huge amount of money so they can speculate.  Let’s face it – the high-frequency guys who have been bashing gold for the last two years, if they decide to turn their trade around, they can drive gold to the moon.

These entities are just looking for profit.  They are a bigger part of the market today than they were back in 2011.  They don’t think in macro-terms — they just look at charts.  If they are running more money today, and if they are caught wrong-footed on the gold trade, that can be extremely explosive for the price of gold.

If we end up with the added fuel of various entities having the desire to own the physical gold instead of the paper contracts, that’s a double-barreled scenario  that would guarantee an explosion in the price of gold.”

Agar tetap ceria setelah mambaca artikel yang cukup panjang ini, saya sertakan juga sebuah gambar lucu berjudul The New Normal:

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 29 Januari 2013

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Apakah Bursa Saham Mulai ‘Gemetar’?

October 23rd, 2013 1 comment

“If the economy was truly healthy, we should be seeing consistent jobs growth, better manufacturing data, higher consumer spending, and rising corporate revenues. These are the reasons why the stock market should advance higher, and not simply because the easy money is allowed to flow unabated into the economy. When this happens, it opens up the stock market to potential issues and selling down the road.”

– George Leong, Profit Confidential

Kali ini laporan saya buat agak singkat namun sebisa mungkin saya ingin tetap bermanfaat, karena di hari yang sama dengan laporan ini buat saya akan memberikan komentar di sebuah stasiun televisi swasta di Jakarta.

Belakangan ini bursa saham menjadi teka-teki bagi para investor. Ada yang mengatakan harga-harga saham sudah demikian tinggi, terutama untuk saham-saham berkapitalisasi besar. Memang ada benarnya!

Mayoritas peningkatan harga saham tahun ini disebabkan oleh MULTIPLE EXPANSION, bukan oleh pertumbuhan pendapatannya.

Namun, dalam dunia yang jauh dari kenyataan (fantasi), bisa saja harga saham yang overvalue berkembang menjadi overvalue secara fantastis.

Seperti kita tahu, adalah pencetakan uang yang menyebabkan multiple expansion di harga-harga saham hingga saat ini. Karena plafon hutang dinaikkan maka pencetakan uang akan semakin meningkat, dan perlu dipertimbangkan multiple expansion tersebut akan meningkat pula.

Pendapatan bisa kembali bertumbuh bersama dengan multiple expansion karena inflasi akan mendorong pertumbuhan nominal lebih tinggi.

Singkatnya, kita akan menyaksikan kenaikan harga saham lagi karena berlanjutnya pencetakan uang sebelum terjadi keruntuhan seperti era Weimar.

Meskipun saya tetap yakin bahwa sistem finansial global akan runtuh suatu saat, sejumlah grafik indeks saham maupun saham-saham secara individu menunjukkan masih ada kenaikan dari harga-harga saat ini.

Tentunya bisa terjadi reversal dengan mudah jika sejumlah indikator ekonomi penting kian memburuk, namun apa yang saya lihat pada momentum saat ini cukup konstruktif.

Meskipun banyak para ahli yakin bahwa saham-saham sudah berada dalam kondisi bubble, kenaikan masih akan berlanjut karena pencetakan uang.

Namun demikian, Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com mengingatkan dalam 2 laporan terakhirnya bahwa multiple expansion sedang memasuki wilayah berbahaya:

1)   Is The Multiple-Expansion “Dream” Over? (October 5th)

The current market environment of increasing event risk (suppressed by the all too visible un-tapering hand of the Fed) and slumping earnings expectations has had little to no effect on either the US equity market nominal level or the commission-taking asset-gatherers pitching the “long-term” buy that the market always is. Through the magic of multiple expansion, stocks remain at all-time highs and are pitched as “cheap” because multiples can still get bigger – remember March 2000 25.6x P/E… There is only one thing wrong with that dream. No matter how hard the Fed tries (mistakenly as we noted here) to pump the “economy” full of money to make consumers feel good, Consumer Sentiment has hit a wall…

The ubiquitous “but P/Es can expand much much more before they have hit a ‘top” chart…

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But aside from the dot-com bubble, current levels of valuation are at or near peak of the last 30 years…

On a historical earnings basis…

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and a forward-looking basis…

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But, it’s all about confidence… investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable… And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market to approach historical multiple valuation levels…

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2)   Goldman: Entire S&P Move Higher Is Due To Multiple Expansion; Shiller P/E Says 30% Overvalued So… Buy (October 19th)

While it has been a stretch to call Bernanke’s post-2009 experiment in “wealth-effect” central planning (where in 2013 the Russell 2000 has outperformed the composite hedge fund by a factor of over 500%!) a “market”, here are some of the latest market thoughts by Goldman’s David Kostin.

US stocks surged to an all-time high of 1745 following the debt accord. The S&P 500 has returned 22% YTD driven almost entirely by P/E multiple expansion rather than higher earnings.

In other words, there has been zero actual bottom line improvement in 2013. Zilch. Nada. All this despite so many loud promises by every pundit in late 2012 that 2013 will be the year of the turn, just wait, you’ll see. It also means there has been zero “fundamental” component to the upside. All of it is multiple expansion. What’s another name for that? Why, “the Fed.”

Bearishly inclined investors will point to the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio popularized by newly-crowned Nobel laureate Robert Shiller that suggests the S&P 500 is roughly 30% overvalued based on 10-year trailing average reported EPS.

“30% overvalued” by a person who just won the Nobel prize for saying the market is irrational and creates bubbles? You don’t say. Why is a perfect segue into the final Goldman notice:

We forecast the index will climb to 1750 by year-end 2013, a slim advance less than 1% above today’s level. Our year-end 2014 price target remains 1900 or 9% above the current level. S&P 500 trades at 2.6x price/book value. From a valuation perspective, the index level is consistent with the market’s current return on equity (ROE) of 15.5%, and in-line with the 35-year average P/B.

To summarize Goldman:

  • All upside is multiple expansion-driven, i.e. relentless Fed pumping of risks as the final bubble grows to unprecedented proportions,
  • A market which even tenured economists say is a disaster waiting to happen.
  • But hey, the music is still playing so everyone must dance all the way until Goldman’s 2100 target… in 2015.

All of this has come and gone before, but since this time will be different, one can just ignore the recurring past.         

What Do the Charts Say?

Ketika pasar global terus berusaha bertahan, penulis media kawakan, Richard Russell, memberikan peringatan pada para investor pada 1 Oktober lalu bahwa mereka harus siap menyaksikan “massive and radical change,” karena bursa saham global akan mencapai puncaknya dan kemudian mengalami penurunan bersejarah.

Lebih lanjut Russel juga menjelaskan bagaimana penurunan besar akan mengantar pada sistem  moneter baru:

“This site will be about the Dow formation that we see below.  This formation is known as the “megaphone formation” or the “broadening formation.”

Nic-66The broadening formation is indicative of a market in turmoil, with sentiment swinging wildly from one way to the other.  Incredibly, the broadening formation has appeared in every major bear market since 1929.  It appeared prior to WWII in 1929.  It appeared in 1957 and 1965-66.  We saw a broadening top in 1987 and again in 1998-2000.  The most recent broadening formation we saw was in 2004 to 2008.

I have long speculated about the sentiment basis of broadening formations.  Each broadening formation is made up of three rising waves and two corrective waves.  As far as sentiment is concerned, I believe broadening formations are the result of wildly swinging reversals in sentiment from bearish to bullish — and then bearish, and finally a huge swing back to extreme bullishness.  This final wave of optimism is the market’s kiss of death, since this final rising wave takes stocks far above known values.

The current broadening formation is unique in that it is, by far, the largest broadening formation that I have ever seen.  Note that wave D to E has not yet touched the upper trend line.  Frankly, I don’t know whether it is necessary for the Dow to make contact with the upper trend line in order to complete the formation.

If the Dow is to touch the upper trend line of the formation, the Dow will have to advance to at least 16,000, which would be an all-time high.  An interesting thesis here is that earnings alone are not the reason for the Dow advancing.  What is driving this market higher is an increase in price/earnings.  In other words, earnings have not been rising, but what has been boosting the market is investors’ sentiment.  Investors have been increasingly bullish on the market, and therefore, they have been willing to pay more and more for the same amount of earnings.

I’ve written about this before.  The major swings in stock prices are often a result of drastic changes in the price/earnings ratio.  Investors become too bullish or too bearish about stocks.  When they become too bullish, this thrusts stocks into the dangerously overvalued zone.  The opposite is true when investors become too bearish.  Charles Dow wrote that unless there was some special reason, stocks were overvalued when dividends sank below 3.5%.

Back to the broadening formation:  In past cases, the bear market associated with a broadening formation carried to the lower trend line of the formation.  So let’s consider that the current broadening formation follows the typical pattern.  In that case, we might expect the Dow to top out anywhere from its current position to a level around 16,000 or even a bit higher. 

Assuming that a major bear market will begin from wherever the Dow tops out, we can assume that the Dow will decline to at least the right end of the lower trend line of the broadening formation.  If that holds true, then we can expect the bear market will take the Dow down to at least 5,000.  That would represent a horrendous loss, although not nearly as bad as the 1929 to 1932 bear market.

I’ve searched my mind to try to understand what a bear market to Dow 5,000 might mean.  In the first place, I think such a bear market could involve a new monetary system.  I also think a huge bear market would see the balance of international power shift from the US to China.  Finally, the giant megaphone formation that I show could be an advance message to the effect that we must all be ready for massive and radical change.

Question — How do you think we should prepare for these massive changes that you foresee?  I’m not really sure, but my first response is that we must abolish greed and become spiritual.  Currently, it seems to me that the emphasis is on profit, growth at any price, power, greed and wealth.”

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE.

Terakhir untuk menutup laporan ini saya persembahkan sebuah lelucon wajib di dunia golf

Tiger Woods and Stevie Wonder are in a bar.

Tiger turns to Stevie and says, “How’s the singing career going?”

Stevie replies, “Not too bad. How’s the golf?”

Woods replies, “Not too bad, I’ve had some problems with my swing, but I think I’ve got that right now.”

Stevie says, “I always find that when my swing goes wrong, I need to stop playing for a while and not think about it. Then, the next time I play, it seems to be all right.”

Incredulous, Tiger says, “You play GOLF?”

Stevie says, “Yes, I’ve been playing for years.”

Tiger says, “But – you’re blind! How can you play golf if you can’t see?”

Stevie Wonder replies, “Well, I get my caddy to stand in the middle of the fairway and call to me. I listen for the sound of his voice and play the ball towards him. Then, when I get to where the ball lands, the caddy moves to the green or farther down the fairway, and again I play the ball towards his voice.”

“But how do you putt?” asks Tiger.

“Well,” says Stevie, “I get my caddy to lean down in front of the hole and call to me with his head on the ground and I just play the ball toward his voice.”

Tiger asks, “What’s your handicap?”

Stevie says, “Well, actually – I’m a scratch golfer.”

Woods, incredulous, says to Stevie, “We’ve got to play a round sometime.”

Stevie replies, “Well, people don’t take me seriously, so I only play for money, and never play for less than $10,000 a hole. Is that a problem?”

Woods thinks about it and says, “I can afford that; OK, I’m game for that. $10,000 a hole is fine with me. When would you like to play?”

Stevie Wonder says, “Pick a night.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat Tanggal 22 Oktober 2013

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