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Will the US Dollar Lose Its World Reserve Currency Status?

April 6th, 2018 No comments
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Why Is The Shale Oil Miracle a Big Lie

March 27th, 2018 No comments
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Apakah Para Investor Sudah Terlalu Banyak Ambil Resiko?

September 9th, 2014 No comments
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Perak MASIH Akan Menjadi Investasi Favorit Saya Untuk 10 Tahun Ke Depan

April 3rd, 2014 No comments

 “Remember, next to oil, silver is the most vital and strategic resource in the world. So we have this massive demand for silver from the Chinese, and we also have the monetary aspects of silver which will help turbo-change the price in the future. The bottom line is the price of silver should be much, much higher than it is today. So I think you have a rare opportunity to buy silver at these extremely depressed prices. Silver is going to trade in the triple-digits before this is over. It will eventually be priced in the hundreds of dollars an ounce – so under $20 is a steal. By the time the world figures out there is a genuine silver shortage there will be very little left. When you put a monetary premium on top of a coming worldwide shortage, the silver market is an explosion to the upside waiting to happen.”

                                                                  — Stephen Leeb

 gb.1

Tahun 2013 lalu saya tulis 4 artikel mengenai alasan-alasan perak akan menjadi investasi terbaik di dekade ini, terutama jika Anda mencari return on investment (atau ROI) yang (sedemikian) tinggi.

Alasan utamanya adalah bahwa saya perkirakan perak akan naik setidaknya 1000% dalam kurun waktu 5 sampai dengan 10 tahun mendatang. Dengan kata lain, jika Anda melakukan buy & hold perak untuk jangka waktu 5 sampai dengan 10 tahun, maka Anda akan mendapatkan rata-rata ROI tahunan sekitar 100%!

Saya memang telah merilis artikel-artikel ini pada April 2013, dan saya masih belum berubah pikiran, bahkan melalui laporan hari ini saya ingin menegaskan kembali bahwa perak masih menjadi investasi favorit saya dalam 10 tahun ke depan.

Namun jika Anda butuh sumber untuk memperkuat keyakinan Anda mengapa harus beli perak, maka bacalah tulisan dari Ted Butler di bawah ini, karena dia adalah seorang analis spesialis untuk logam mulia yang sudah berpengalaman sekitar 40 tahun.

Berikut adalah laporan khusus dari Ted Butler dan saya sangat merekomendasikan untuk berlangganan laporan-laporannya di www.butlerresearch.com karena analisanya untuk emas dan perak sungguh berharga dan berguna:

 

I Own Silver Because Of The Coming Silver Shortage

 “Ask a hundred different precious metals investors why they hold gold or silver and, while you may not get a hundred different answers, you’ll certainly get more than one. That’s because there are many different reasons why people own precious metals. Among those reasons; protection against inflation, bank or financial system failures, currency turmoil, unsustainable government debt and money supply growth, stock or bond market collapse and perhaps some combination of all these reasons.

 While I can understand these reasons and don’t have any real dispute that they may prove to provide the protection desired; all are far removed from the reason I hold and continue to buy silver. I own silver because I feel it will perform better than any other investment I am aware of, including gold. Although I am not driven by a desire for money at all costs; I am convinced that if you are going to make an investment, it should be the best investment possible. Quite simply, I believe that silver will make more money, by far, than any other investment almost regardless of future circumstances. [Emphasis mine]

 It is one thing to say that silver will be the best investment over the next several years, but yet another to back that up and explain why I expect that to be the case. The simple reason is because I think silver will go into an extreme physical shortage on a wholesale level. If there is anything that can drive the price of a commodity to the stratosphere it is surely a physical shortage. War time, peace time, any time there has ever been a shortage of any commodity, the price has soared to levels that ration remaining available supplies. The price of silver will behave the same way when a wholesale shortage hits.

 The inevitable shortage was the thing that first attracted me to silver 25 years ago. Some might say that’s a long time to wait for a shortage, but there are some very special circumstances that explain why the timetable for a silver shortage has been drawn out. For one thing, silver has been mined and produced in great quantities for many hundreds of years and tremendous inventories were accumulated above ground. It’s hard to conceive of a shortage in the presence of massive inventories. Certainly, throughout history, there has never been a silver shortage, so if a silver shortage develops, it will be unprecedented and that will add to the emotional and panic-buying intensity that accompanies any commodity shortage.

 Starting around 100 years ago, the world developed an insatiable appetite for silver as an industrial material once it was discovered that the metal had physical and chemical properties more varied and vital than any other metal. Those properties included silver being the best conductor of electricity, the best transfer agent for heat, the best reflector of light, the most diverse medical properties and chemical properties that ranged from making photography possible to use as a catalyst for other important chemical production.

 So great was the industrial demand for silver that for 65 years running, until around 2006, much more silver was consumed than was mined and recycled annually. At the start of World War II, the world had more than 10 billion ounces in silver bullion inventories, with the US Government holding about half that amount. It’s hard to conceive of a shortage with 10 billion ounces of silver in world inventories. But so much more silver was consumed than was produced through 2006 that world inventories of silver bullion (in the form of 1000 oz bars) have fallen to a bit more than one billion ounces today, despite the ending of the consumption deficit. Obviously, it’s easier to envision a shortage when the inventories of a commodity decline by 90%, while the population of the world (and resultant demand) grew from 2.5 billion to 7 billion.

I look at silver as a commodity destined to go into a shortage because that’s what the facts point to. My professional background revolves around supply/demand analysis, having begun my working career as a commodity broker for Merrill Lynch more than 40 years ago. I didn’t set out to conclude there would be a silver shortage or any such thing, but in 1985 a client and my eventual mentor, Israel Friedman, challenged me to explain why silver was stuck at $5 an ounce when demand exceeded production and inventories were being drawn down year after year.

Thanks to Izzy’s challenge, I came to discover that the price of silver stayed low because it was manipulated by excessive short selling on the COMEX, the principal world precious metals exchange. Since that time, I have petitioned the exchange and the federal regulators to end the manipulation. I have not been successful on that score to date, but many thousands have come to believe that silver has been manipulated in price. The key point here is that nothing invites a shortage more than a prolonged artificial low price and its affect on the law of supply and demand.

Any industrial commodity is capable of going into a shortage. All it takes is for industrial demand to exceed total production or come close to that circumstance. Such shortages seem rare, but then again just about every industrially consumed metal or other commodity has gone into a shortage situation at some point over time. Copper, nickel, lead, zinc and a whole host of grains and foodstuffs and energy products have experienced shortages of varying degree. Considering silver’s tremendously diverse industrial consumption base and the growth of world population and economic development, it’s impossible to exclude silver as a potential candidate for shortage compared to every other industrial commodity.

But wait a minute – didn’t I just say that total production of silver started to exceed industrial consumption around 2006? How the heck can there be a silver shortage if total production exceeds industrial consumption? Well, for starters, silver total production doesn’t exceed industrial consumption by much; say by 100 million ounces or so annually on a billion ounces of total production. And one could argue that with the recent price drop below the cost of production for many silver miners, that it is just a matter of time before industrial consumption exceeds production due to falling mine production. I think that the silver deficit could return in time, unless prices rise; but I have a different reason for expecting a silver shortage before a decline in mine production triggers the shortage.

The key to appreciating why, among all commodities, silver is capable of developing quickly into a shortage situation, even if production exceeds total industrial consumption, is in understanding that silver is the most unique of materials in that it has a special dual aspect in its demand. Not only is it a vital industrial material, but it is an extremely popular investment asset. To my mind, this elemental fact of silver’s dual demand is vastly underappreciated, but it lies at the heart of why I own silver.

Sure, there are times when big investors buy copper, oil, grains and other commodities for a speculation, but the regular investor rarely buys physical copper or crude oil or corn as a long term investment. If the regular investor buys any commodity, it is usually only gold and silver. Since little gold is used for industrial purposes and the metal is considered primarily a pure investment asset, gold does not have a dual demand aspect. That’s not to say gold can’t rise in price, but it won’t be due to a shortage enflamed by panicky industrial user buying. Only silver, of all commodities, has a bona fide dual demand circumstance.

Because this dual demand factor is, effectively, unique to silver, it sets the stage for a very unique potential shortage. Normal commodity shortages come slowly and as a result of a gradual insufficiency of supply in meeting demand over the course of years.

After all, most world commodities have many participants, both producers and consumers and changes in production or consumption are glacial-like and grindingly slow. Only when long and consistent delays in delivery occur do the effects of the commodity shortage become apparent. But there is a very big difference between industrial consumption demand and investment demand. With industrial consumption, the users buy what they need; with investment demand, the buyers buy what they want and can afford. And collective human nature being what it is, investment buyers often behave in unison, all trying to buy or sell at the same time. This holds special significance for a silver shortage.

Total silver fabrication demand (industrial consumption plus jewelry, coin and all other such uses) consume 90% of total supply (mine production plus recycling) of one billion ounces. This leaves around 100 million ounces (in the form of 1000 oz bars) to be absorbed by the world’s investors, or $2 to $2.5 billion annually. In terms of typical world investment flows, this is a piddling amount. For instance, $100 to $150 billion is needed annually to be absorbed in newly-produced gold by the world’s investors. Since investors tend to move in unison and the dollar amounts are so small, the 100 million oz of new silver available to world investors annually could be snapped up in a relative instant. Sure, existing silver investment holdings could also be sold, but remember that world inventories of silver are down 90% from 70 years ago, so not that much silver exists in investor holdings.

The dual demand factor in silver will also likely be a self-reinforcing mechanism. The silver story is so good that it is only a matter of time before investors buy sufficient quantities to tighten supply, particularly considering how few relative dollars of silver are available for purchase. When that investor-induced tightness hits, it will inevitably cause tightness for the industrial consumers as well, creating delays in delivery to the silver users. Faced with delivery delays that will shut down assembly lines, the industrial users will do what has always been done throughout history – they will try to buy even more silver to build their own inventories and eliminate future delivery delays. This is just normal human collective behavior – just like panic buying of bread, ice and gasoline when a hurricane warning is issued.

You might ask if this is inevitable (as I suggest) – then why hasn’t it happened yet? The truth is that the world was on the cusp of its first shortage of silver three and a half years ago, when the price almost touched $50 an ounce. At that time, investors throughout the world had purchased enough quantities of silver, including many hundreds of millions of ounces in the newly created Exchange Traded Funds that prices were pushed up and severe tightness was evident throughout the wholesale supply chain. Remember, the ETFs buy the exact same form of industrial grade silver (1000 oz bars) as do the users.

But before the industrial users began to build personal inventories, prices were dramatically rigged lower on the COMEX and within a week, the price of silver was smashed for more than 30%. This immediately cooled off investor demand; creating instead investor selling and preventing an industrial user buying panic.

Looking back, I believe that we averted an all-out silver user buying panic by the thinnest of margins in the spring of 2011. But the close call back then did nothing to change the underlying circumstances of the inevitable coming silver shortage; it was simply a temporary postponement to what will recur and with greater force. Frankly, I can’t see how a silver shortage won’t occur at some point; so the real question is one of timing. Fortunately, even if we can’t predict the precise timing, it can be made into something largely under our control. It all has to do with how you configure a silver investment.

If you become convinced, as I am convinced, of the likelihood of a future silver shortage, don’t try to time it at all. Put yourself in a position where the timing doesn’t matter; only the shortage itself. The way to do that is to buy real metal for cash on the barrel head, put it away and wait it out. No margin or borrowing to buy paper forms of silver, no in and out short term trading; stick to real metal in your own possession until you reach the point where you have so much metal that you need professional storage. By not having to worry about the timing, you put time on your side.”

 

Selanjutnya adalah Michael Snyder, seorang publisher untuk The Economic Collapse Blog, yang juga yakin bahwa mereka yang tertarik pada perak sedang mencari peluang beli yang bagus.

Bahkan menurutnya mereka kini pasti senang karena harga perak sudah jatuh demikian rendah.

Singkatnya, jika Anda sabar menanti, maka giliran Anda pasti akan tiba.

Berikut artikelnya yang ditulis Juni 2013, dan menurut saya masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA bagi mereka yang serius ingin berinvestasi di perak:

 

“In my previous articles, I have warned over and over again that we would see wild swings in the prices of gold and silver.  For example, I wrote the following back in April

As I mentioned above, gold and silver are going to experience wild fluctuations over the next few years. When the next stock market crash comes, gold and silver are probably going to go even lower than they are today for a short time. But in the long run gold and silver are going to soar to unprecedented heights. 

Investing in gold and silver is not for the faint of heart. If you cannot handle the ride, you should sit on the sidelines. We are entering a period of tremendous financial instability, and holding gold and silver is going to be like riding a roller coaster. The ups and downs are going to shake a lot of people up, but the rewards are going to be great for those that stick with it the entire time.

Right now, a lot of people that bought silver when it was 25 dollars an ounce or 30 dollars an ounce are probably feeling discouraged.

Don’t be.  You will be just fine.  When the price of an ounce of silver hits 100 dollars an ounce you will be very thankful for the silver that you stored away at those prices.

We are moving into a time when we will see more volatility in precious metals prices than we have ever seen before.  That means there will be some tremendous opportunities to make money.  But in order to make money, you have to buy low and sell high.

The current decline in the price of paper silver does not have anything to do with the demand for actual physical silver.  In fact, demand for physical silver is higher than it ever has been before.

For example, sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a brand new all-time record high during the first half of 2013.

Last year, the U.S. Mint sold 33 million ounces of silver for the entire year.

This year, the U.S. Mint is on pace to sell 50 million ounces of silver for the entire year.

So don’t be alarmed that the price of silver is falling.

Instead, be very, very thankful.

Hopefully it will go even lower.

And you know what?  There is a decent possibility that the price of silver may go down a bit more.  This will especially be true during the initial stages of the next financial panic.

When the price of silver does dip, it is a perfect opportunity to load the boat, because even many mainstream analysts are projecting that the price of silver is headed into the stratosphere over the long-term.  For example, the following is what Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick told King World News the other day…

Again, if you look at silver going back to the 2008 correction, we got down to levels below $9, then we saw the silver price multiply by a factor of over 5 times. So assuming this marks a point near the end of the correction in silver, then our bias would be one that would take silver not only to new all-time highs, but we would look for a target as high as $100 for silver.

A chart illustrating the projections that Fitzpatrick is making can be found right here.

There are so many reasons to own silver (even as opposed to owning gold).  The following is an excerpt from a recent article about silver that really caught my attention…

*****

7. Silver is way below its nominal record price of $50 in 1980.  It is even further below the government inflation adjusted level of $135.  And if you use REAL inflation adjusted numbers, like Shadowstats, the REAL 1980 inflation adjusted price of silver would have to be $450!  Silver is a precious and depleting resource and when you look at the price of housing, cars, education, food, energy, taxes, insurance back in the 1980′s, it is insane to think that silver is so cheap on any level.  Especially when the uses of silver have skyrocketed since the 1980’s.  It is now used in technology on a massive scale and is even now said to cure cancer.  Heck, they did not even have Silver Eagle sales back then, or the Silver Bullet Silver Shield for that matter.

8. This time it is going to be much larger!  None of the problems from the 2008 Banking Crisis have been solved.  In fact it is orders of magnitudes worse.   What started out as an institutional problem is now a sovereign nation problem.  This collapse will not be a puny multi – billion dollar corporation like AIG disintegrating, it will be the Trillion dollar economies of the nations of the world and the Quadrillion dollar derivative monster markets cracking apart.  There is no financial, political or social safety net left.  We destroyed all of that in 2008 and are on a debt based junkie delusion.

The collapse of currencies will affect every counter-party, debt based asset in the world. Your cash, stocks, bonds, Real Estate, pensions, insurance, all of it.  The collapse of financial contracts will lead to the collapse of all political and social contracts.  The Anger Phase of humanity is coming and only real assets with no counter party risk will be worth anything.  Most commodities have storage or degradation issues leaving only precious metals as a real store of wealth.

9. 1:65 Ratio makes silver the only choice.  The current gold to silver ratio is: 1 ounce of gold is worth 65 ounces of silver.  These come out of the ground at a 1:9 ratio!  That means just to get back to the natural mining ratio, silver would have to outperform gold 600%.  This is regardless what happens to the dollar value of gold.  If gold goes to $13,000 an ounce, silver at a 1:9 ratio would be $1,444 silver.

10. The historical stockpiles of silver are destroyed.  We know implicitly that gold has been treasured and kept secure.  While silver has been used and abused as a cheap, industrial metal like tin.  Since the price of silver has been under attack since the Crime of 1873, silver has been used in such small quantities that it has been destroyed.  The US government in 1950 had 5 billion ounces of silver in its strategic stockpile, now it has ZERO. So if gold and silver come out of the ground at a 1:9 ratio and gold has been treasured and silver stockpiles destroyed, logic would dictate that the end of this silver bull market will find the gold to silver ratio BELOW 1:9 and I think it will come close to a 1:1.  Either way, we are a long way away from those levels which makes silver so exciting right now.

It is the destruction of huge stockpiles like this that explains the decade long supply deficit to the growing demand of silver.  Do not forget that we are only 7 years away from the United States Geological Survey’s prediction that if we continue to consume silver at these rates, silver would be the first metal to become extinct.  When I challenged the USGS on that statement, they said that only a massive revaluation of silver to bring on more production and wiser use of silver would stop the extinction.  I don’t think we will ever run out of silver, but I do believe that the free market will crush this paper manipulation and that anyone holding physical silver on that day will then have a lottery ticket in real value.

*****

You can read the rest of that excellent article right here.

Do you want some more reasons to own silver?

The following are some excerpts from an excellent article by Mark Thomas

*****

The amount of silver consumed annually and bought for investment exceeds currently exceeds total annual mining output and has for years. That gap has been filled by sellers willing to sell from existing inventories and as prices rise. As time passes this will naturally push prices significantly higher until this fundamental imbalance reaches a true equilibrium price where supply is closer to demand.

*****

Both industrial and investment demand for silver is growing in excess of the annual increase in mining production growth. The available inventory is low and will get even tighter over time. These two factors will lead to a continued tighter supply-demand situation going forward.

*****

Silver is an industrial metal with over 10,000 commercial applications. Because it is one of the best electrical and thermal conductors, that makes it ideal for electrical uses such as switches, multi-layer ceramic capacitors, conductive adhesives, and contacts. It is used in some brazing and soldering as well. Silver is also used in solar cells, heated automobile wind shields, DVD’s and some mirrors.

*****

Silver is an essential element in the electronic gadgets that are a growing part of our digital age. It is in every cell phone, smart phone, tablet, computer keyboard, solar cells and every radio frequency if ID device (RFID). This makes it an essential element going forward as the world becomes more addicted to gadgets. The growth and rising living standards of people in the emerging economies will drive long-term growth of new customers that will demand more and more electronic gadgets.

*****

Silver’s industrial demand should increase 60% to 666 million ounces per year by 2016 from 487 million ounces in 2010. Current annual mine production is only around 700 million ounces per year growing a few percent annually.

*****

Of a total of fifty billion ounces of silver that have been mined in history, only two ounces (estimate) or 5% remain in above ground inventories available to be bought and sold. This is due to silver being used up in industrial applications in very small quantities, which makes it unprofitable to recycle at today’s prices. A lot of silver is used in minute quantities in industrial products which are used up and discarded without being recycled.

*****

The total amount of silver available to trade in the physical silver market is only about $70 billion versus the total gold market which now exceeds $4.3 trillion. As you can see from these numbers, the total market size of the silver market is only 1.6% of the size of the entire gold market. This lack of liquidity and use of extreme leverage in its respective futures market produces wild volatility in price fluctuations of silver.

*****

You can read the rest of his excellent article right here.

Are you starting to get the picture?

Let us hope that the price of silver stays below 20 dollars an ounce for as long as possible, because once this opportunity is gone we will probably never see it again.

It is important to realize where we are in the greater scheme of things.  The world is moving toward another major financial crisis which will usher in a brief period of deflation.  Unlike many others that are talking about the coming economic collapse, I have always maintained that we are going to see deflation first and then the response to the crisis will give us the rip-roaring inflation that so many talk about.  The following is an excerpt from one of my articles where I talk about this

So cash will not be king for long. In fact, eventually cash will be trash. The actions of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve in response to the coming financial crisis will greatly upset much of the rest of the world and cause the death of the U.S. dollar.

That is why gold, silver and other hard assets are going to be so good to have in the long term. In the short term they will experience wild swings in price, but if you can handle the ride you will be smiling in the end.

During the initial stages of the next major stock market crash, gold and silver will not do very well.  But that is okay.  Dips are buying opportunities.

As the coming economic crisis unfolds, governments and central banks all over the world will desperately attempt to resuscitate the global financial system.  We are going to see money printing and “stimulus packages” on a scale that we have never seen before.  Crazy things will happen with stocks, bonds and currencies.

When the dust finally settles, those that are holding “real money” will be the ones that will be in the best shape.”

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Meskipun perak kelihatan akan sangat menarik dalam jangka panjang, namun tekanan saat ini nampaknya BELUM selesai.

Berikut laporan singkat dari Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective, beserta grafiknya:

“The silver chart shows a similar wave structure to gold; prices should make fresh new lows this year. The next short-term target is $17.30, with greater bearish potential.”

gb.2

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah James Turk, pendiri GoldMoney, yang pada 19 Agustus 2013 lalu membuat artikel luar biasa yang menjelaskan pola grafik 30 tahun untuk bullish tajam perak:

“The following silver chart will be familiar to everyone who follows my work. I first presented this pattern in my newsletter about twenty years ago, and I have been tracking it closely ever since, though recently there has been a twist to the way this pattern has developed.

I have been describing silver’s long-term chart pattern as a rounding bottom, which shows distribution from the 1980 peak to the early 1990s, followed thereafter by a decade trading range and then a decade of massive accumulation. In other words, over this period silver moved from overvaluation and selling by weak hands, to undervaluation and buying by strong hands.

The new twist to this pattern is that the rounding bottom has evolved into a ‘cup with a handle’, which I have drawn on the chart (outlined in green).

gb.3

Regardless of the name we call the above chart, the bottom line is that it is presenting a very bullish picture for silver. After a decade or so of distribution, a decade in a trading range and another decade of accumulation, silver is in strong hands, particularly after the onslaught it endured the past two years.

Technical analysts will note, however, that the above pattern is not complete. More of the story has yet to be told.  Perhaps the chart pattern will fail, or perhaps the pattern will complete in the months ahead with silver moving higher to completely form the handle, which is what I expect.

Of course, the pattern will only be complete when silver moves above the lip of the saucer, which is its record high of $50. If that happens, then silver will begin stage two of its bull market.

In summary, the outlook for silver is spectacular, and my recommendation for both precious metals remains unchanged. Accumulate gold – and if you are inclined to accept the greater volatility, then accumulate silver too – on a cost-averaging program with monthly (or quarterly if it fits your budget better) purchases. By doing so you are saving sound money. Buy physical gold and physical silver only.”

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

 

Dibuat Tanggal 31 Maret 2014

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Sejauh Mana Emas Akan Jatuh?

April 3rd, 2014 No comments

“People need to be patient … Do I think in the next 12 to 18 months that precious metals prices will be much, much higher than we’re seeing today? Yes, I do. I just don’t think the current suppression scheme can be successfully prosecuted that much longer. If that were the case, Germany should have gotten all of their gold (back) and ABN AMRO and Rabobank shouldn’t have had to default. The strains in the system are obvious … This game will end. It will end when it can’t be prosecuted any longer. And based on the setup in the options series and other things that we look at, they (bullion banks) certainly would like to take it (the price) lower. These people are incredibly greedy – that’s a given. … My feeling is we still need that last washout on big volume … and then I think you’re going to see one of the greatest rallies of all time. You’re going to see an enormous tsunami to the upside, with gold probably hitting $3,000. And this could be within 12 to 18 months.”

 – William Kaye

Gb.1

Setelah kenaikan besar emas menembus strong resistance $1350, harganya tertahan di sekitar $1390 dan kemudian terkoreksi dalam 2 pekan terakhir ini.

Hal ini terjadi karena mulai redanya eskalasi geopolitik sejak Crimea bergabung ke Rusia serta sejumlah komentar dari pimpinan bank sentral AS Janet Yellen.

Yellen mengatakan bahwa bank sentral AS akan segera menaikkan suku bunga, sehingga memicu tekanan harga emas dan mendukung kenaikan dolar AS.

Bahkan, Yellen dengan jelas menyatakan bahwa bank sentral AS dapat saja menaikkan suku bunga paling tidak dalam kurun waktu sekitar 6 bulan setelah mengakhiri program stimulusnya, yang saat ini masih akan berjalan hingga kuartal terakhir 2014.

Hal ini mendorong nilai kas dan obligasi jangka pendek serta menekan daya tarik logam mulia, yang tidak memiliki yield.

Sehingga, FOMC-meeting Maret yang ternyata lebih hawkish dari yang diduga itu, memicu pembentukan puncak harga emas dalam jangka pendek, karena kemudian terjadi penurunan yang cukup cepat dan tajam.

Kenaikan emas tempo hari hanya menunjukkan kepada kita mengenai false-breakout klasik – harga menembus wilayah resistance hanya sementara untuk kemudian merosot kembali secara signifikan.

Dan penjelasan mengenai flase-breakout adalah bahwa biasanya harga akan cenderung berbalik arah dengan cepat. Seperti yang terlihat pada pergerakan harga emas saat ini.

Jadi emas, yang sejak kuartal pertama 2014 terus naik, membentuk puncak penting pada 16 Maret 2014, di $1391,96, dan kemudian turun kembali ke 1278.25 hingga saat ini.

Pertanyaannya adalah seberapa jauh harga emas akan turun. Mungkin masih akan turun lebih jauh jika kita yakin apa yang dikatakan Goldman Sachs yang belum lama ini merekomendasikan untuk “sell your gold”.

 

Berikut adalah laporan Damien Courvalin dari Goldman Sachs. yang nampaknya sangat bersentimen bearish pada emas:

Cold, Crimea & China: Transient supports to gold prices

The 2014 gold rally brought prices to their highest level since September before a more hawkish-than-expected March FOMC pushed prices sharply lower. Three distinct and in our view transient catalysts have driven this rally: (1) a sharp slowdown in US economic activity which we believe was weather driven, (2) high Chinese credit concerns, although ultimately bearish for gold demand through lower financing deals if realized, and (3) escalating tensions over Ukraine. While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both US and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration. Importantly, it would require a significant sustained slowdown in US growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower US gold prices over the next two years.

Re-acceleration in US activity will push gold prices lower

While we see clear catalysts for the recent rally in gold prices, this move has been large relative to US real rates which are a key input into our forecasts and benchmarking of gold prices. As a result, we see potential for a meaningful decline in gold prices towards the level implied by 10-year TIPS yields, which our rates strategists expect to rise further this year, and reiterate our year-end $1,050/toz gold price forecast. More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE, US economic releases are back the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing US growth.

Indian and Chinese gold demand unlikely to surprise to the upside

Weak Indian gold imports and surging Chinese imports were the most important shifts in EM gold demand last year, although these trade statistics likely overestimated shifts in local gold demand given reported gold smuggling into India and the use of gold in Chinese financing deals. While we see potential for these shifts to reverse in 2014, we estimate the net impact will not be meaningful to our gold outlook as: (1) India’s potential easing of gold import tariffs will likely remain modest given how much lower gold imports have contributed to its improved trade balance, (2) we expect a gradual unwind of gold backed financing deals.

Gb.2

Full note below:

 

GS_Gold

 

What Do the Charts Say?

Toby Connor, penulis pada Gold Scents, sebuah blog finansial yang sangat menekankan pada the gold secular bull market, belum lama ini merilis laporan luar biasa mengenai emas:

Sejak September 2013, saya sudah memprediksi bahwa harga emas akan melemah lebih lanjut dengan target antara $1000 dan $1100, dan nampaknya Connor juga demikian.

Silahkan lihat tulisannya yang masuk dalam kategori WAJIB DIBACA, dan bertindaklah yang sesuai:

 

Gold Setup for a Final Takedown

“Precious metals are being heavily manipulated right now. When gold was turned back down and lost the breakout above the September FOMC manipulation top, which was a warning flag for me to take profits in our metals portfolio. The pre-market attack last Monday to break the intermediate trend line confirmed, at least for me, that the precious metals were again under attack and the forces at work in this market were going to try to extend the bear market.

Gb.3

Notice how gold is now deviating from the rest of the commodity sector. I don’t think this would happen in a natural market.

Gb.4

I believe the metals are being set up to take a massive beating when the CRB drops down into its summer correction. During that correction gold will be moving into its yearly cycle low (YCL’s are the most damaging correction of the year for any asset). I fully expect the forces controlling the gold market will try to break that double bottom at $ 1180 and take gold down to $1050.

Notice that gold’s yearly cycle is left translated. Left translated cycles more often than not make a lower low. You have to hand it to these guys; they have played the metals perfectly over the last year and a half. They managed to manufacture a completely artificial bear market, and now that they have turned gold’s intermediate cycle back down they have set the stage to take gold down to $1050 this summer which has been their goal all along.

Gb.5

And I think the motivation for this is the same that it has always been. The profit potential is much greater from the $1000 level than it is from the $1800 level. Make no mistake the entire purpose of this year and a half long bear raid has been to manufacture a lower D-wave bottom, thereby massively increasing long side profit potential. In the process they’ve managed to also make some good money on the short side. I think they’ve also intentionally damaged the physical supply side of the metals market knowing that that would exacerbate the rally once the manipulation was released, and the secular trend is allowed to resume.

Not only have the banking cartel manufactured a lucrative short trade, they have damaged the physical market enough that we will likely see a huge move from $1050 back to $1800-$2000 over a 4-6 month period once the manipulation is removed at the yearly cycle low and these banks flip sides and position long.

I think over the next three months J.P. Morgan, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs are going to stretch the rubber band so tight in the metals market that when they finally release it it’s going to generate a surge comparable to what we just witnessed in the coffee market. Unlike the coffee market though, the metals market is big enough that these players can take large positions and make serious money off of that move.

Gb.6

Predicting where this market is going to go in the short term would require inside information as to the banking cartel’s intentions next week. Unfortunately I doubt they are going to send us a memo on that. However I think we can probably assume that the third daily cycle once it rolls over, is going to be devastating to the precious metals market. And I expect we will also have a fourth daily cycle before the yearly cycle low is complete. That fourth daily cycle will probably take gold back down to $1050 and a final bear market bottom if the cartel has its way.

Gb.7

So while I know this is tough to hear, as most of you are gold bugs, I am confident that the banking cartel has a purpose, and that purpose is to set up what will probably be one of the most lucrative long side trades in the metals of this entire secular bull market. Our job right now is to be patient and wait for that yearly cycle low later this summer. I think that low is going to drop at least down to retest $1200, and if the cartel has its way, they will push gold back to $1050 before this is over. For the next several weeks it’s going to be safer to trade oil, or corn, or copper, etc. But step aside from the metals and let the cartel do its thing. In the end they are going to manufacture a truly amazing opportunity as long as one has the patience to let them finish their business before going back into metal trades.”

Untuk jangka waktu yang lebih pendek, seperti Anda lihat pada grafik terakhir Tobby Connor di atas, harga emas bisa saja naik dari setiap areal low pada siklus bearish mendatang.

Untuk itu, sebaiknya kita baca juga laporan menarik lainnya dari John C. Burford, seorang editor pada MoneyWeek Trader, yang mengatakan bahwa harga emas sudah dekat di areal terendahnya:

 

The best time to trade against hedge funds

“Hedge funds are among the biggest players in the market, so we need to keep track of their activities. As I have pointed out, they are largely trend-followers. They are momentum traders and use trading programs that track the momentum of the market.
And because they trade in huge quantities, they are not as nimble as small traders. This means that it takes much longer for the hedgies to change tack – and that’s one reason they are often wrong at market turns. So today I’ll tell you how investors can benefit from their mistakes.

 

Why small traders love a good story

One of the best times to take advantage of the hedge funds is when a story can be built around a particular bullish or bearish stance.

Why? Because small traders just love a good story! And this group can enhance market moves. In December, they had fallen in love with the ‘gold is bad’ story. Sentiment measures were pointing to record low levels of bearishness, with the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) reaching an extreme low at the 5% level at one point.

There were widespread forecasts of sub-$1000 gold.

Then in January the market started turning up and sentiment turned with it.

I used this information to position on the long side of the market. The oversold condition was correcting as a new gold story was finding favor (gold is good). This new story was based on the heightened Ukraine conflict and reports that China was buying physical metal in volume.

The hedge funds were at the fore in predicting $1400 gold, which was my original target in early January.

And as the market approached this target, DSI readings had reached an extreme 85% bullish level.

But as I wrote, this target was missed (as I forecast) and in just ten days, the market fell $100 to last week’s low of $1285.

 

How to know what hedge funds are doing

Luckily, we don’t have to guess what hedge funds are up to – we have the COT data.

In my 24 March email, the market was declining off the $1388 high where the COT data was showing that the hedge funds had built up a four-to-one bullish position.

Here is the latest COT data which refers to the 25 March picture:

Gb.8The non-commercials (largely hedge funds) sold a large chunk of their longs and increased their shorts last week. That means they now hold only three longs to one short.

But has this driven out the froth so that the market can stage a rally?

Will the gold support hold?

This was the chart I had last time:

Gb.9If the larger trend was still up, then I expect the decline to have an A-B-C form.


And if an A-B-C did form, a positive momentum divergence would add strength to the ongoing rally case.

This is the updated chart this morning:

Gb.10Since last time, the market has declined on cue – and precisely to the meeting of the tramline and the Fibonacci 50% level, where the decline has retraced 50% of the entire rally off the 31 December low.

Remember, the 50% level is a common retracement if the main trend is still intact. Also, if my tramlines are still working, there should be a kiss on it before the uptrend resumes.

And the positive momentum divergence I had suggested last time has appeared (red bar).

 

Gold is starting to look interesting

One other piece of information: At last week’s low, wave C equals wave A in height. Remember, another common relationship in an A-B-C corrective pattern is the equality of the A and C waves. This is significant.

So it appears the odds are building up for a bounce from near current levels if my C wave has ended.

Not only that, but the latest DSI readings have fallen sharply off the bullish extremes of two weeks ago.

This is starting to look interesting!”

 

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, adalah 2 gambar lucu mengenai anjing dan kucing, untuk Anda supaya selalu ceria hari ini:

Gb.11

 

Gb.12

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Dibuat 02 April 2014

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